bennett123
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Jul 21, 2019 9:16 pm

f1restate

a 100 aircraft?
 
nmcalba
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Jul 21, 2019 11:32 pm

The discussion about the total costs of the grounding is interesting, if somewhat futile - since the true answer is "no-one knows" - not even Boeing.
They have estimates and best guesses - but until the dust has settled that's all they are - and even after the event it may not be possible to separate out losses that are attributable to the accident/grounding - lost sales etc are notoriously difficult to pin down.

But on a slightly different tangent - would I be right in saying that this is now by far the largest grounding in airliner history?

There have been much longer ones, Comet for example, but that was a relatively small number of aircraft.

But in terms of aircraft-seat-days, to coin a new metric, it must be considerably larger than any previous grounding.

The only other one I can think of as coming close was the DC-10 grounding in 1979 - that involved about 380 larger (250-350 seat) aircraft but only lasted for 5 weeks, and I'm not certain that 100% of the aircraft were actually grounded - a few countries may have kept flying.

Or have I missed a larger one?
 
ArgentoSystems
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Mon Jul 22, 2019 6:08 am

The big question that remains open is how will consumers treat MAX past grounding? This group is making its position clear.

https://extra.ie/2019/07/22/business/ir ... ax-boycott
 
Noshow
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Mon Jul 22, 2019 6:35 am

There have been booking engines on the web that could filter MAX flights out before the grounding already. To convince the public the MAX is safe again will be a big venture. This will no job for spin doctors but for engineers and hard facts. If this doesn't work the 737 will be toast.
 
B777LRF
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Mon Jul 22, 2019 6:51 am

Former chairman and MD of NTSB takes hammer to Boeing

The Boeing 737 Max crises is a leadership crises

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/17/opin ... 7-max.html

Fair use excerpt:

We’ve seen this before: A Boeing airliner crashes, killing all aboard. Investigators believe a design flaw in the aircraft played a major role in the accident, but Boeing blames the pilots. Eventually, the design flaw is corrected, but not before another plane crashes, leaving more deaths in its wake.

In our time at the National Transportation Safety Board we saw this happen — long before the two Boeing crashes in the past year.


How Dennis Muilenburg manages to cling onto his chair is one of the greatest mysteries surrounding this entire ordeal.
Signature. You just read one.
 
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aerolimani
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Mon Jul 22, 2019 7:32 am

ArgentoSystems wrote:
The big question that remains open is how will consumers treat MAX past grounding? This group is making its position clear.

https://extra.ie/2019/07/22/business/ir ... ax-boycott

I expect the consumer response will be stronger in relation to past groundings, but at the end of the day, I think all the other factors (schedule, price, loyalty programs, etc.) will come into play, and the majority of people will get over it.

Hidden is that article was also a suggestion that supposedly FR is suggesting that Boeing rebrand the MAX as the 737 Super. :lol: All I could think is <in truck commercial voice> “The all new 737 SUPER MAX. No one gets on… or off!!!”
 
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MrBren
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Mon Jul 22, 2019 7:53 am

Changing the name will not affect the DNA. Nobody will want to fly this bird, except, maybe, the Boeing sales force.
 
Scotron12
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Mon Jul 22, 2019 7:57 am

Time will tell...but while everyone seems to believe the grounding will eventually be lifted...what if it's not?

Then what?
 
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scbriml
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Mon Jul 22, 2019 8:05 am

Scotron12 wrote:
Time will tell...but while everyone seems to believe the grounding will eventually be lifted...what if it's not?

Then what?


All hell breaks loose! :crazy:

Seriously, I can’t see any circumstances where MAX never flies again. Absolute worst case I can see is a complete recertification as a non-NG 737 variant.

With the backlog it’s got, there’s no way Boeing can just shrug their shoulders and not get TPFKAM* back in the air.


*The Plane Formerly Known As MAX. :wink2:
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PixelFlight
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Mon Jul 22, 2019 8:18 am

scbriml wrote:
With the backlog it’s got, there’s no way Boeing can just shrug their shoulders and not get TPFKAM* back in the air.
*The Plane Formerly Known As MAX. :wink2:

In all officials documents this is the 737-8/9
 
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keesje
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Mon Jul 22, 2019 8:19 am

B777LRF wrote:
Former chairman and MD of NTSB takes hammer to Boeing

The Boeing 737 Max crises is a leadership crises

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/17/opin ... 7-max.html

Fair use excerpt:

We’ve seen this before: A Boeing airliner crashes, killing all aboard. Investigators believe a design flaw in the aircraft played a major role in the accident, but Boeing blames the pilots. Eventually, the design flaw is corrected, but not before another plane crashes, leaving more deaths in its wake.

In our time at the National Transportation Safety Board we saw this happen — long before the two Boeing crashes in the past year.


How Dennis Muilenburg manages to cling onto his chair is one of the greatest mysteries surrounding this entire ordeal.



It may sound strange, but Jim Hall and Peter Goelz are helping Boeing here. They are demonstrating there are still independent voices in US aerospace that are willing to publicly re-open the door on safety culture. A door that a forcefull industrial-political elite is trying to slowly close by deferring final conclusions, make time forget, creating new no-know commisions, keep talking etc. These guys will get nothing but head wind & critics, but show the required independence the FAA seems to have lost is still there.


Scotron12 wrote:
Time will tell...but while everyone seems to believe the grounding will eventually be lifted...what if it's not?

Then what?


Try start a seperate thread on that :flamed: It will live for 7-10 posts regardless how objectively written / substantiated. It's a theoretical situation / taboo no one would even wants to consider. Let's assume nothing else will be found on the 737MAX certification, MCAS get's a software fix and it wil re enter production soon.
Last edited by keesje on Mon Jul 22, 2019 8:41 am, edited 1 time in total.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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DocLightning
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Mon Jul 22, 2019 8:20 am

scbriml wrote:

Seriously, I can’t see any circumstances where MAX never flies again. Absolute worst case I can see is a complete recertification as a non-NG 737 variant.

With the backlog it’s got, there’s no way Boeing can just shrug their shoulders and not get TPFKAM* back in the air.


While I agree a "never flies again" outcome is unlikely, I can see Boeing getting into a situation where they start to wish they'd scrapped the project.

If the grounding stretches past three years (don't scoff; the 787 delays amounted to that), Boeing will get to a point where if they'd dropped the whole thing and gone clean-sheet, they'd be approaching testing and certification of a new type. If European regulators say: "There's too much crosstalk between software and cable-pulley systems, so we're not certifying the -MAX until it is fully FBW," that's basically a whole new type.

In any event, I see no way that the MAX program returns an overall program profit. Same as the 787.
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
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f1restate
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Mon Jul 22, 2019 8:23 am

bennett123 wrote:
f1restate

a 100 aircraft?
Around 100 max-es parked on BA grounds ?

Sent from my SM-G975F using Tapatalk
 
asdf
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Mon Jul 22, 2019 10:17 am

scbriml wrote:
...Absolute worst case I can see is a complete recertification as a non-NG 737 variant.
....


do you think you can get a certification for a bird with that aerodynamical attitudes?

not MCAS is the problem, nor is it AoA sensors or a faulty flight computers
the cause is a aeordynamical behavior that hasnt seen bevore till the times of the concorde
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Mon Jul 22, 2019 10:41 am

DocLightning wrote:
In any event, I see no way that the MAX program returns an overall program profit. Same as the 787.

So Boeing will have its cash cow - 737 - never make a profit along with the 787 which requires a paper write off, but Chpt.11 is so far outside the realm of possibility that when suggested as a possible outcome people think its nuts?
If the two products that you are selling are not making money then what, as much as folks talk about Boeing defense business, the commercial is where it is at right now, in terms of a/c, only the new trainer has the potential to be a fault / delay free program and that is still a couple year out.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Mon Jul 22, 2019 10:44 am

ArgentoSystems wrote:
The big question that remains open is how will consumers treat MAX past grounding? This group is making its position clear.

https://extra.ie/2019/07/22/business/ir ... ax-boycott


Sorry, but that must be a joke. Rynair customers avoiding the airline because of safety concerns about a fully certified plane is just laughable. 95% of the customers do not even know that they fly a 737 much less the version of it or that a A320 is not a 737.

This really needs a lot less drama.
 
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N14AZ
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Mon Jul 22, 2019 11:15 am

seahawk wrote:
ArgentoSystems wrote:
The big question that remains open is how will consumers treat MAX past grounding? This group is making its position clear.

https://extra.ie/2019/07/22/business/ir ... ax-boycott


Sorry, but that must be a joke. Rynair customers avoiding the airline because of safety concerns about a fully certified plane is just laughable. 95% of the customers do not even know that they fly a 737 much less the version of it or that a A320 is not a 737.

This really needs a lot less drama.

This is really funny, from that article:
But customers have already taken to social media to voice their concern. Johannes Baader, who has travelled twice monthly between Ireland and his native Germany for 11 years, says he will never fly on one.

He said: ‘Michael O’Leary, it could become your biggest mistake in Ryanair’s history to underestimate the fear of me and my fellow regular passengers when we hear 737 Max. As far as I am concerned any airline which operates this plane will be off limits. Do all of us a favour and buy A319.’

A319?!?! Strange that he mentions this version of the A320...

scbriml wrote:
Scotron12 wrote:
Time will tell...but while everyone seems to believe the grounding will eventually be lifted...what if it's not?

Then what?


With the backlog it’s got, there’s no way Boeing can just shrug their shoulders and not get TPFKAM* back in the air.

*The Plane Formerly Known As MAX. :wink2:

Now that we know how sensitive people are about this aircraft I propose IWMNBN **) and will use this abreviation in my spotters logbook.

__________________________________
**) It-which-must-not-be-named :expressionless:
 
seb76
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Mon Jul 22, 2019 11:41 am

seahawk wrote:
ArgentoSystems wrote:
The big question that remains open is how will consumers treat MAX past grounding? This group is making its position clear.

https://extra.ie/2019/07/22/business/ir ... ax-boycott


Sorry, but that must be a joke. Rynair customers avoiding the airline because of safety concerns about a fully certified plane is just laughable. 95% of the customers do not even know that they fly a 737 much less the version of it or that a A320 is not a 737.

This really needs a lot less drama.


Fully agree, flying a potentially dangerous plane would not be a big deal compared to the many other things Ryanair customers accept from their prefered supplier ;-) I expect MOL to solve this with a new additional £££ fee on all routes NOT being served by the 737 MAX... a tickbox you can't uncheck on the reservation page. He can already start charging it on all flights for the time being until the 737 is back in the air
Last edited by seb76 on Mon Jul 22, 2019 11:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
seb76
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Mon Jul 22, 2019 11:42 am

seb76 wrote:
seahawk wrote:
ArgentoSystems wrote:
The big question that remains open is how will consumers treat MAX past grounding? This group is making its position clear.

https://extra.ie/2019/07/22/business/ir ... ax-boycott


Sorry, but that must be a joke. Rynair customers avoiding the airline because of safety concerns about a fully certified plane is just laughable. 95% of the customers do not even know that they fly a 737 much less the version of it or that a A320 is not a 737.

This really needs a lot less drama.


Fully agree, flying a potentially dangerous plane would not be a big deal compared to the many other things Ryanair customers accept from their prefered supplier ;-) I expect MOL to solve this with a new additional £££ fee on all routes NOT being served by the 737 MAX... a tickbox you can't uncheck on the reservation page. He can already start charging it on all flights until the 737 is back in the air.
 
asdf
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Mon Jul 22, 2019 12:34 pm

seb76 wrote:
...expect MOL to solve this with a new additional £££ fee on all routes NOT being served by the 737 MAX... a tickbox you can't uncheck on the reservation page. He can already start charging it on all flights for the time being until the 737 is back in the air


LOOOOOL

kinda "non-MAX" fee

great idea .....
;-)
 
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DocLightning
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Mon Jul 22, 2019 2:30 pm

par13del wrote:
DocLightning wrote:
In any event, I see no way that the MAX program returns an overall program profit. Same as the 787.

So Boeing will have its cash cow - 737 - never make a profit along with the 787 which requires a paper write off, but Chpt.11 is so far outside the realm of possibility that when suggested as a possible outcome people think its nuts?


BCA is a subsidiary of BA (Boeing's stock ticker symbol) and BA can subsidize BCA. BA is a huge, with a vast military division, and is still profitable. But hopefully, people on the Board have finally taken notice that this "cost-cutting at any cost" approach is costing more than it is saving. American corporate culture has taken this view that investment is a cost center. Well, it's not that simple. You need to be willing to spend money to make money.

I also can't see BCA shutting down like Lockheed did. There would be too much political pressure to keep the division open. However, I think the upper management team needs to be made to clean up their mess and then they will get the boot and (we hope) be replaced by people who don't have cephalorectal inversion.
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
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Interflug74
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Mon Jul 22, 2019 3:59 pm

InsideMan wrote:
seahawk wrote:
2. use at least 2 sensors


that sounds tricky.... maybe someone with knowledge of the 737 system design can elaborate how this could be achieved


Flashing a new software seems pretty simple. but how they will implement a second sensor in planes already built? isn´t it the fuselage to be modified?
 
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7BOEING7
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Mon Jul 22, 2019 4:07 pm

Interflug74 wrote:
InsideMan wrote:
seahawk wrote:
2. use at least 2 sensors


that sounds tricky.... maybe someone with knowledge of the 737 system design can elaborate how this could be achieved


Flashing a new software seems pretty simple. but how they will implement a second sensor in planes already built? isn´t it the fuselage to be modified?


The other sensor (AOA vane) is already installed there was just no comparison being made between the left and right side relative to MCAS operation.
 
Interflug74
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Mon Jul 22, 2019 4:18 pm

7BOEING7 wrote:
Interflug74 wrote:
InsideMan wrote:

that sounds tricky.... maybe someone with knowledge of the 737 system design can elaborate how this could be achieved


Flashing a new software seems pretty simple. but how they will implement a second sensor in planes already built? isn´t it the fuselage to be modified?


The other sensor (AOA vane) is already installed there was just no comparison being made between the left and right side relative to MCAS operation.


thx
 
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aerolimani
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Mon Jul 22, 2019 10:03 pm

ArgentoSystems wrote:
The big question that remains open is how will consumers treat MAX past grounding? This group is making its position clear.

https://extra.ie/2019/07/22/business/ir ... ax-boycott

These people should not come to Canada. We shall see how it goes here, but between AC and WS, over time it will become increasingly difficult to find a non-MAX flight on many itineraries. I expect, though, that any public paranoia will decrease over time, at a rate probably similar to the increasing numbers of MAX. Assuming neither airline makes a drastic change to their plans, and the ungrounding goes as hoped, there’s going to be a lot of MAX in these skies, and not much else beyond a smattering of A220 and A321, for mainline NB aircraft.
 
IADFCO
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Tue Jul 23, 2019 5:22 pm

Munoz said a few months ago that any passenger not willing to fly on a UA MAX would be rebooked (presumably without penalty, but I have to go back and find the article). I'm curious to see whether he will keep his promise, and for how long.
 
asdf
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Tue Jul 23, 2019 5:38 pm

IADFCO wrote:
Munoz said a few months ago that any passenger not willing to fly on a UA MAX would be rebooked (presumably without penalty, but I have to go back and find the article). I'm curious to see whether he will keep his promise, and for how long.


there will not be any UA MAX

there will be UA 737-8 or -9
;-)
 
MrBretz
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Tue Jul 23, 2019 6:00 pm

asdf wrote:
IADFCO wrote:
Munoz said a few months ago that any passenger not willing to fly on a UA MAX would be rebooked (presumably without penalty, but I have to go back and find the article). I'm curious to see whether he will keep his promise, and for how long.


there will not be any UA MAX

there will be UA 737-8 or -9
;-)


Did they cancel their order for 100?
 
birdbrainz
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Tue Jul 23, 2019 6:55 pm

MrBren wrote:
Changing the name will not affect the DNA. Nobody will want to fly this bird, except, maybe, the Boeing sales force.


Then you'd better not fly any jetliner, as the same folks and process were used on every other aircraft.

By the time it's in air, it will have been the most scrutinized aircraft ever. I wouldn't hesitate to fly on it.

That said, I hope you're right so I can more easily get a first-class upgrade or empty middle seat.
A good landing is one you can walk away from. A great landing is if the aircraft can be flown again.
 
Vladex
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Tue Jul 23, 2019 7:06 pm

How will this affect future reengining of the twin jets? What is being gleaned from here? Are twin jets already limited already? 787 is a wide body twin of 737 in terms of ground clearance at least and is already filled and topped out.
 
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rikkus67
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Tue Jul 23, 2019 7:19 pm

Scotron12 wrote:
Time will tell...but while everyone seems to believe the grounding will eventually be lifted...what if it's not?

Then what?


The Comet flew again, and the L-188 flew again, both after having multiple major catastrophes. The aftermath was poor sales. It will be interesting to see if the long term effects will be the same for the MAX, despite its sizeable order book...
AC.WA.CP.DL.RW.CO.WG.WJ.WN.KI.FL.SK.ACL.UA.US.F9
 
14ccKemiskt
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Tue Jul 23, 2019 8:28 pm

Ralph Nader (again) demands that the MAX is grounded until recertified as a new airplane.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/23/ralph-n ... again.html
 
aeropix
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Tue Jul 23, 2019 8:30 pm

birdbrainz wrote:
By the time it's in air, it will have been the most scrutinized aircraft ever. I wouldn't hesitate to fly on it.


That's what they said after the first couple of Comet crashes...
 
889091
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Tue Jul 23, 2019 8:32 pm

Once the FAA gives the MAX the green light and the grounding is lifted, how will Boeing schedule the rollout for the fix?

First-In-First-Out or Last-In-First-Out or largest customer first?
 
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zckls04
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Tue Jul 23, 2019 9:02 pm

par13del wrote:
So Boeing will have its cash cow - 737 - never make a profit along with the 787 which requires a paper write off, but Chpt.11 is so far outside the realm of possibility that when suggested as a possible outcome people think its nuts?
If the two products that you are selling are not making money then what, as much as folks talk about Boeing defense business, the commercial is where it is at right now, in terms of a/c, only the new trainer has the potential to be a fault / delay free program and that is still a couple year out.


There are several estimates of how much this will cost Boeing, and whilst these are pretty much wild stabs in the dark, they do mostly fall in the 5 to 10 Billion range.

Obviously Boeing aren't going bankrupt, but isn't this around an entire year's profit for the commercial aircraft division? That seems like a significant hit even for Boeing. Surely that will impact their R&D capacity in the short to medium term at least.
Four Granavox Turbines!
 
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flyingphil
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Tue Jul 23, 2019 9:06 pm

With the Comet the early Comet 1’s were scrapped. The Comet that went on to have a reasonable commercial service life was a different bird altogether. But that was another era when social media didn’t exist only rich people could afford to fly.

The 737MAX grounding is unprecedented in its length and the number of planes grounded... and the cost being measured in billions of dollars.

There doesn’t seem to be an end in sight, no news seems to be leaking out of Boeing. I hate to think how much each day of the grounding is costing Boeing..
 
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PixelFlight
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Tue Jul 23, 2019 10:19 pm

MrBretz wrote:
asdf wrote:
IADFCO wrote:
Munoz said a few months ago that any passenger not willing to fly on a UA MAX would be rebooked (presumably without penalty, but I have to go back and find the article). I'm curious to see whether he will keep his promise, and for how long.


there will not be any UA MAX

there will be UA 737-8 or -9
;-)


Did they cancel their order for 100?

No. The 737-8/9 is simply the official name of the 737 MAX 8/9. The MAX is just a marketing name.
 
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RobK
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Tue Jul 23, 2019 10:43 pm

So many drama queens in this thread predcting all manner of doom and gloom about the model never flying again and airlines going bankrupt because people will refuse to fly on it. Seriously, listen to yourselves. You're spouting hysterical nonsense. The FAA will rubber stamp it to fly again in a few months time and the rest of the world's administrators will follow suit shortly after. There will be some tantrums and stamping of feet by those attention-seekers still proclaiming it to be a death trap, and they will make some noise on Twitter and set up some Facebook petition groups. But the reality is that their primciples about never flying on the Max will instantly disappear the moment they need to book a ticket and find out that the cheapest flight is on a Max. Within a year of it returning to the skies the whole saga will have been forgotten about by everyone other aviation enthusiasts and life will carry on as before.
 
SEU
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Tue Jul 23, 2019 10:59 pm

Boeing of course knows the figures, but at some point the cost of trying to get the plane back in the air will out way the cost of scrapping it and making a new plane. The A220/CS100/300 cost 5.1billion on its own. A NSA would probably be more 10-20billion. If the grounding continues into late 2020 (doubtful) I could see the MAX being scrapped altogether.
 
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aerolimani
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Jul 24, 2019 12:09 am

Vladex wrote:
How will this affect future reengining of the twin jets? What is being gleaned from here? Are twin jets already limited already? 787 is a wide body twin of 737 in terms of ground clearance at least and is already filled and topped out.

There is a point of diminishing returns when it comes to the diameter of the fan/engine relative to the amount of thrust it produces. I believe that we are at that point already, when it comes to all the newest designs and their engines. In terms of the re-engined models specifically, I believe that only the 737 could really benefit for a larger fan size. However, everything required to make this possible would outweigh the benefits.
 
ArgentoSystems
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Jul 24, 2019 12:12 am

RobK wrote:
So many drama queens in this thread predcting all manner of doom and gloom about the model never flying again and airlines going bankrupt because people will refuse to fly on it. Seriously, listen to yourselves. You're spouting hysterical nonsense. The FAA will rubber stamp it to fly again in a few months time and the rest of the world's administrators will follow suit shortly after. There will be some tantrums and stamping of feet by those attention-seekers still proclaiming it to be a death trap, and they will make some noise on Twitter and set up some Facebook petition groups. But the reality is that their primciples about never flying on the Max will instantly disappear the moment they need to book a ticket and find out that the cheapest flight is on a Max. Within a year of it returning to the skies the whole saga will have been forgotten about by everyone other aviation enthusiasts and life will carry on as before.

Nice trolling. Keep it up.
 
9w748capt
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Jul 24, 2019 12:19 am

RobK wrote:
So many drama queens in this thread predcting all manner of doom and gloom about the model never flying again and airlines going bankrupt because people will refuse to fly on it. Seriously, listen to yourselves. You're spouting hysterical nonsense. The FAA will rubber stamp it to fly again in a few months time and the rest of the world's administrators will follow suit shortly after. There will be some tantrums and stamping of feet by those attention-seekers still proclaiming it to be a death trap, and they will make some noise on Twitter and set up some Facebook petition groups. But the reality is that their primciples about never flying on the Max will instantly disappear the moment they need to book a ticket and find out that the cheapest flight is on a Max. Within a year of it returning to the skies the whole saga will have been forgotten about by everyone other aviation enthusiasts and life will carry on as before.


Yeah ... no. Nice try though. Boeing has a LONG way to go in terms of restoring the public's confidence in the 737-8/9/whatever they're going to call it. Do you work for Boeing? The dismissive tone in your post is exactly how Boeing's leadership comes across.
 
prebennorholm
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Jul 24, 2019 1:06 am

Vladex wrote:
How will this affect future reengining of the twin jets? What is being gleaned from here?

The future: When airliners will be updated (reengining or otherwise), then they will be made to aerodynamically naturally fulfill all FARs without the need for add on systems to compensate for adverse control characteristics.

Should an OEM in a million years propose anything less than that, then the whole world will scream "MAX v2.0" even before the ink can dry on the first order contact.
Always keep your number of landings equal to your number of take-offs
 
MrBretz
Posts: 363
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Jul 24, 2019 1:20 am

PixelFlight wrote:
MrBretz wrote:
asdf wrote:

there will not be any UA MAX

there will be UA 737-8 or -9
;-)


Did they cancel their order for 100?

No. The 737-8/9 is simply the official name of the 737 MAX 8/9. The MAX is just a marketing name.


Thanks. I missed that renaming.
 
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RobK
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Jul 24, 2019 1:35 am

9w748capt wrote:
RobK wrote:
So many drama queens in this thread predcting all manner of doom and gloom about the model never flying again and airlines going bankrupt because people will refuse to fly on it. Seriously, listen to yourselves. You're spouting hysterical nonsense. The FAA will rubber stamp it to fly again in a few months time and the rest of the world's administrators will follow suit shortly after. There will be some tantrums and stamping of feet by those attention-seekers still proclaiming it to be a death trap, and they will make some noise on Twitter and set up some Facebook petition groups. But the reality is that their primciples about never flying on the Max will instantly disappear the moment they need to book a ticket and find out that the cheapest flight is on a Max. Within a year of it returning to the skies the whole saga will have been forgotten about by everyone other aviation enthusiasts and life will carry on as before.


Yeah ... no. Nice try though. Boeing has a LONG way to go in terms of restoring the public's confidence in the 737-8/9/whatever they're going to call it. Do you work for Boeing? The dismissive tone in your post is exactly how Boeing's leadership comes across.


Boeing won't have to do anything at all. The pax aren't the ones buying their planes. Considering that the airlines basically have a choice between either a 737 or an A320 family, both with long lead times, then the orders will continue to flow in as a) in 3/4/5 years time (roughly the length of time it'll take from placing an order today through to delivery) the saga will have been long forgotten and b) Airbus aren't going to double their production just to accommodate all the hypothetical airlines that won't buy the Max because no-one will fly on them.

The airlines' default response to those pax jumping up and down on their soap boxes and refusing to fly will be "the FAA/CAA/whoever have certified the aircraft as safe to fly, sorry you feel that way, Sir. Would you like us to cancel your ticket? Please be aware in doing so you won't be entitled to a refund." The pax will quit his whining, take his seat and arrive safely at his destination a few hours later without any fuss or drama.
 
9w748capt
Posts: 1623
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Jul 24, 2019 1:40 am

RobK wrote:
9w748capt wrote:
RobK wrote:
So many drama queens in this thread predcting all manner of doom and gloom about the model never flying again and airlines going bankrupt because people will refuse to fly on it. Seriously, listen to yourselves. You're spouting hysterical nonsense. The FAA will rubber stamp it to fly again in a few months time and the rest of the world's administrators will follow suit shortly after. There will be some tantrums and stamping of feet by those attention-seekers still proclaiming it to be a death trap, and they will make some noise on Twitter and set up some Facebook petition groups. But the reality is that their primciples about never flying on the Max will instantly disappear the moment they need to book a ticket and find out that the cheapest flight is on a Max. Within a year of it returning to the skies the whole saga will have been forgotten about by everyone other aviation enthusiasts and life will carry on as before.


Yeah ... no. Nice try though. Boeing has a LONG way to go in terms of restoring the public's confidence in the 737-8/9/whatever they're going to call it. Do you work for Boeing? The dismissive tone in your post is exactly how Boeing's leadership comes across.


Boeing won't have to do anything at all. The pax aren't the ones buying their planes. Considering that the airlines basically have a choice between either a 737 or an A320 family, both with long lead times, then the orders will continue to flow in as a) in 3/4/5 years time (roughly the length of time it'll take from placing an order today through to delivery) the saga will have been long forgotten and b) Airbus aren't going to double their production just to accommodate all the hypothetical airlines that won't buy the Max because no-one will fly on them.

The airlines' default response to those pax jumping up and down on their soap boxes and refusing to fly will be "the FAA/CAA/whoever have certified the aircraft as safe to fly, sorry you feel that way, Sir. Would you like us to cancel your ticket? Please be aware in doing so you won't be entitled to a refund." The pax will quit his whining, take his seat and arrive safely at his destination a few hours later without any fuss or drama.


And why exactly should we trust the FAA? What have the done at all to win our trust? Allow Boeing to police themselves? That worked out well didn't it? Or are you another one of those "this would never happen in Murrca" trolls?
 
NAlvarez
Posts: 1
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Jul 24, 2019 1:53 am

I keep reading and reading all post here and try hard to understand what happen with MAX.
I running ishikawa and end up with design flaw. Do Boeing try to fix or just band aids to a problem? If you not correcting the root cause/ possibility to reoccur much be very high.
MCAS just a band aids. I agree that the other have MCAS too but just to prevent a pilot to throttle over with high AOA. Total opposite with MAX.
Do i miss understood some point.
 
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7BOEING7
Posts: 3038
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Jul 24, 2019 2:44 am

prebennorholm wrote:
The future: When airliners will be updated (reengining or otherwise), then they will be made to aerodynamically naturally fulfill all FARs without the need for add on systems to compensate for adverse control characteristics.

Should an OEM in a million years propose anything less than that, then the whole world will scream "MAX v2.0" even before the ink can dry on the first order contact.


Actually in the future airliners will continue to be less and less “naturally” aerodynamic and more dependent on computers because they increase both safety and efficiency eventually displacing the pilot.
 
9w748capt
Posts: 1623
Joined: Sat Feb 02, 2008 10:27 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Jul 24, 2019 2:58 am

NAlvarez wrote:
I keep reading and reading all post here and try hard to understand what happen with MAX.
I running ishikawa and end up with design flaw. Do Boeing try to fix or just band aids to a problem? If you not correcting the root cause/ possibility to reoccur much be very high.
MCAS just a band aids. I agree that the other have MCAS too but just to prevent a pilot to throttle over with high AOA. Total opposite with MAX.
Do i miss understood some point.


What do you mean by running ishikawa? I realize English may not be your first language - just trying to understand what you're trying to say.
 
2175301
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Jul 24, 2019 4:30 am

NAlvarez wrote:
I keep reading and reading all post here and try hard to understand what happen with MAX.
I running ishikawa and end up with design flaw. Do Boeing try to fix or just band aids to a problem? If you not correcting the root cause/ possibility to reoccur much be very high.
MCAS just a band aids. I agree that the other have MCAS too but just to prevent a pilot to throttle over with high AOA. Total opposite with MAX.
Do i miss understood some point.


I will try to summarize all the major items that occurred with the 738MAX. Key thing for you (and everyone) to know is that none of these- in general - are unique to the 738Max, even if some specific items are.

All aircraft must be designed by a Manufacturer and Certified by an appropriate governing agency to operate. Many counties in the world essentially honor the certification of the original country of origin, although there can be some additional reviews and perhaps very trivial changes. The USA FAA and European EASA actually use a very similar program and process. None of the regulatory agencies are staffed with enough qualified people to do all the reviews necessary, and they all delegate certain reviews and acceptance to specific designated people who work for the Manufacturers; and then just do a cursory review of the submitted paperwork. That will not change.

All countries allow a certain amount of grandfathering on previous accepted designs; and unless there is some very specific reason - only require certification of the changed components or features of a revision to an already certified design.

All countries also work to a defined "good enough" standard. It is not possible to build a perfectly safe aircraft; nor is it considered cost effective to go beyond a certain level of safety. That is true of all products. However, the Aviation industry has one of the overall highest standards and history of safety compared to other product lines in the world. The manufacturers and regulatory agencies actually do quite well.

All Aircraft Manufactures use components, parts, and in some cases even entire systems designed by other "supplier" companies; and it is quite common for these supplier companies to actually provide to the aircraft manufacturer the actual certification paperwork and in some cases testing results; which the manufacturer then reviews and passes to the regulatory agency. Actually in many cases both Airbus and Boeing uses the same suppliers for certain things because some companies are the experts in that subsystem or component (Aircraft breaks, transponders, sensors, and many other things).

In all design and construction decisions there are always options and often debates amoung the engineers and other parties on the best solution. Management does in fact have the right and responsibility to make choices on what the final path is. In the event of any major problem - in any industry - it seem that that debate leaks out; and many people essentially accuse management of being callous by choosing a lower cost option than something else that may have performed better. Yet, cost of products is important or you loose market share. Having personally been involved in such design debates and decisions I do not fault anyone for choosing a lower cost option that appears to meet the "good enough" criteria required by the regulators.

Due to market conditions Boeing was clearly and unambiguously told by the Airline Industry that a revised version of the 737 was desired over a clean sheet replacement (and a clean sheet replacement was something Boeing was actually pursuing for the 737 at the time). The Max series came out of this. I note that aircraft companies, as with many companies, tend to build aircraft that the customers request. Its how they stay in business. Going out on the limb with a design no one wants is extremely risky.

The 737 series was originally designed for low runway clearance, which presented an engineering challenge as to how to mount the more efficient modern engines on the revision. The solution was to mount the engines further forward of the wing which allowed the engine center-line to be higher off the ground, allowing the larger engines.

Customers (and at least specifically Southwest - a major 737 client) request that if possible that the revision should not include any more training simulator time; which Boeing felt was achievable (and contract language was inserted into at least the Southwest contracts for the 738Max).

Changing the engine position created some differences in handling, and in certain conditions could create an instability that could be problematic - which would have to be addressed to allow certification of the revised aircraft. I note that Airbus has encountered similar handling changes with their aircraft revisions that they had to address to allow certification of their revised aircraft as well (recently an issue was identified with the A321 in this regard).

MCAS, a revision of an existing 737 system was born out of that need to address the instability condition; and the directive from management (I believe totally achievable) was to come up with a design that did not require additional simulator training.

It is my understanding that the 738MAX MCAS system and certification was done by a supplier; not that it would have necessarily change the results much.

A key part of any design process for a safety critical system is something called a Failure Modes and Effect Analysts (FMEA). You list all the known failure modes (and start with a checklist based on historically identified failure modes, and then are asked to think up of any other failure modes not on the check list). Haveing personally been involved in several system designs and doing FMEAs I can assure you that thinking up of new failure modes is not the easiest thing to do (you don't know what you don't know). The other part of the check list is then an estimate of the effect caused by the failure mode identified, its significance, and its frequency. Everything has an estimated frequency (including a wing falling off a modern aircraft). The regulatory agency sets a number for which the estimated frequency has to meet to be certified.

In the case of the 738Max we actually do know that the key failure of the process was that the MCAS FMEA did not consider the actual failure modes that happened, or grossly underestimated its frequency (that seems to have been long forgotten by many posters). Something else long ago posted was that both Boeing, the FAA, with EASA, and select other international regulators actually did essentially a rood cause investigation as to what happened with the certification process. Both Boeing and the FAA made definitive statements that the 738Max certification process itself was followed properly. Coming out of this investigation was the fact that EASA and some other international agencies were going to require a 3rd independent party to review the FMEA for the MCAS system fix; which the FAA has incorporated into their process. It appears to me that this requirement for an independent 3rd party review of the FMEA's will become a permanent part of all future certification decisions by the FAA; and I am am sure the EASE and other countries (this is a relatively cheap fix to the certification process to reduce this type of mistake in the future: Note that you cannot eliminate all mistakes).

Now there have been all kinds of discussions on why the MCAS FMEA was not adequate; and somewhere in there Boeing or the supplier actually changed what the MCAS did compared to the original documents submitted to the FAA which made the FMEA more incorrect (It adjusted pitch more than what the FAA was told; and that was never corrected in the initial certification - a clear mistake on Boeing's part.) I am sure that Boeing/Airbus and their suppliers are currently focusing on FMEA adequacy issues (its now a focus area for the whole industry). However, the pendulum of focus swings back and fourth within a range. I am quite confident that no one intentionally made a mistake, and no one intentionally decided to cut corners on safety (the initial system MCAS said it met the "good enough" standard of the regulators). The various investigations by the FBI, congress, etc. are common for major events; and rarely find anything to prosecute.

At this stage; Boeing has apparently submitted a MCAS revision that works; but, now the FAA is being extra cautions and is looking at a lot of things. They found a scenario where the existing flight control computers get overloaded. Boeing has indicated that they only need a software fix (most likely rewiring "C" instructions in assembly language to reduce computer cycles, and perhaps dividing up instructions and tasks differently: This is relatively straight forward - but takes time to write, test, and do all the paperwork). Apparently the EASA, and other potentially other regulators have asked Boeing to also address several other issues - none of which is reported to be a hard problem to actually address (despite claims by posters on this board that they are not addressable). Boeing previously communicated that they expect to have everything done and submitted to the FAA and EASA for review and certification in September. It would not surprise me if that slips by a month or so; but, I doubt for more than that.

Another side issue is what information is supplies to the airlines, and the requirement to notify or train the pilots on what. Boeing fully provided information to all airlines and regulatory agencies about the MCAS system (it's fully described in the maintenance manuals). They did not hid it (and I don't understand why people keep claiming they did). Training requirements is actually a decision made by the regulatory agencies and the airlines. Boeing may suggest what they feel is appropriate; and did. Both the FAA and EASA went along with Boeing suggestion on training and did not require the airlines operating under their licenses to train the pilots on the MCAS system. Most regulatory agencies in the world did the same. However, long buried in one of the crash threads is the information that one country (I believe in South America) did not and required the pilots in that country to be specifically trained about the MCAS system. I also understand from the same post that one airline in North America felt that the pilots needed to know and trained their pilots about the MCAS system.

So that is what happened, to the best of my knowledge. Unfortunately, for many it does not support various conspiracy theories, etc. I assure you that there are engineers at Airbus and other aircraft manufactures who are not wondering "but for the grace of god, that could be us" as making a mistake on a FMEA is not that hard - and understandable (try to make an educated guess a failure mode that has not yet happened and its frequency); and a similar mistake could slip through the EASE certification process as the EASA also allows Airbus to do a lot of the certification work as well. EASE does not have the resources to do it themselves, and never will (neither will the FAA or any national regulatory agency). Note the recent A321 handling issue identified... most likely as a result of the 738Max issue.

I hope that helps you understand what really happened here.

Have a great day,

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