RickNRoll
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 10, 2019 1:43 am

Revelation wrote:
RickNRoll wrote:
Revelation wrote:
I haven't really kept up on the current status of the grounding recently. Could someone give me a (brief) rundown of what the current situation is?
The current situation is they are all still grounded, except that we saw the MAX-7 do what Boeing called an engineering flight requested by FAA yesterday, and Boeing's CEO reiterated handing off a fix to FAA in September and return to flight early Q4. So, not much has changed recently.

It is not being submitted to the FAA till then. So that is when testing of a major, and highly sensitive, change starts with the FAA. That is not going to take a few weeks.
 
planecane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 10, 2019 2:02 am

RickNRoll wrote:
Revelation wrote:
RickNRoll wrote:

It is not being submitted to the FAA till then. So that is when testing of a major, and highly sensitive, change starts with the FAA. That is not going to take a few weeks.

There are only so many tests they can come up with for the MCAS fix.

1) Verify MCAS disengages upon AoA disagree
2) Verify that if both AoA sensors fail within 5.5° of each other with high readings that:
a) Only one cycle occurs maximum
b) at Vmo the change in trim is limited so that the elevator had authority to maintain level flight
c) at Vmo the manual electric trim is capable of moving the stabilizer back into trim
d) using manual electric trim nose up stops the MCAS cycle
3) Test that the one cycle per event restriction doesn't keep MCAS from activating for a second event when conditions are met
4) Evaluate new (or updated) NNC to ensure that staying away from the MCAS required part of the flight envelope is reasonable.
5) Test stall recovery if MCAS is disabled and aircraft enters the conditions where it is needed and stalls.

I'm sure someone can come up with a few more but I wouldn't expect flight testing to take more than a few days.

A month should be very realistic as long as the software performs as planned. Evaluating the updated training may take longer than flight tests.
 
RickNRoll
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 10, 2019 5:13 am

planecane wrote:
RickNRoll wrote:
Revelation wrote:

It is not being submitted to the FAA till then. So that is when testing of a major, and highly sensitive, change starts with the FAA. That is not going to take a few weeks.

There are only so many tests they can come up with for the MCAS fix.

1) Verify MCAS disengages upon AoA disagree
2) Verify that if both AoA sensors fail within 5.5° of each other with high readings that:
a) Only one cycle occurs maximum
b) at Vmo the change in trim is limited so that the elevator had authority to maintain level flight
c) at Vmo the manual electric trim is capable of moving the stabilizer back into trim
d) using manual electric trim nose up stops the MCAS cycle
3) Test that the one cycle per event restriction doesn't keep MCAS from activating for a second event when conditions are met
4) Evaluate new (or updated) NNC to ensure that staying away from the MCAS required part of the flight envelope is reasonable.
5) Test stall recovery if MCAS is disabled and aircraft enters the conditions where it is needed and stalls.

I'm sure someone can come up with a few more but I wouldn't expect flight testing to take more than a few days.

A month should be very realistic as long as the software performs as planned. Evaluating the updated training may take longer than flight tests.


There are fundamental changes to the software. That doesn't mean you only test the desired results. You have to do a regression test of everything.
 
rheinwaldner
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 10, 2019 5:52 am

planecane wrote:
There are only so many tests they can come up with for the MCAS fix.

The whole system architecture is being changed, so you can forget just testing the changed function. A full regression test is required.
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oschkosch
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 10, 2019 8:20 am

Whilst checking for news, I found this article which surprised me to say the least!

http://industrynewsarchive.com/1306/boe ... est-error/

On a related note, even switching your handset to airplane mode will not keep it from being a danger on some jets by Boeing. A 2014 FAA survey disclosed that some cockpit displays on Boeing 777 and 737 jets are defenseless to WiFi interference, weather radar, and cell phone signals. Media reported earlier that while most of them have been restored, some jets still have the old models fitted by Honeywell International, Inc.


In designing the max, did Boeing make an old plane even older? :shock:

And not sure if this was posted before:
https://globalnews.ca/news/5747513/ethi ... lle-moore/

The family of Danielle Moore, one of the 18 Canadians killed in the Ethiopian Airlines crash, sent a letter to the FAA and Boeing with other families to investigate the 737 MAX. They are calling for re-certification of the plane, and for better pilot training.


“Ultimately, we would prefer (the 737) to not fly, but if they’re going to allow them to be un-grounded then we have to make sure they are safe. That would mean full certification of the plane.”
 
planecane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 10, 2019 10:10 am

RickNRoll wrote:
planecane wrote:
RickNRoll wrote:
It is not being submitted to the FAA till then. So that is when testing of a major, and highly sensitive, change starts with the FAA. That is not going to take a few weeks.

There are only so many tests they can come up with for the MCAS fix.

1) Verify MCAS disengages upon AoA disagree
2) Verify that if both AoA sensors fail within 5.5° of each other with high readings that:
a) Only one cycle occurs maximum
b) at Vmo the change in trim is limited so that the elevator had authority to maintain level flight
c) at Vmo the manual electric trim is capable of moving the stabilizer back into trim
d) using manual electric trim nose up stops the MCAS cycle
3) Test that the one cycle per event restriction doesn't keep MCAS from activating for a second event when conditions are met
4) Evaluate new (or updated) NNC to ensure that staying away from the MCAS required part of the flight envelope is reasonable.
5) Test stall recovery if MCAS is disabled and aircraft enters the conditions where it is needed and stalls.

I'm sure someone can come up with a few more but I wouldn't expect flight testing to take more than a few days.

A month should be very realistic as long as the software performs as planned. Evaluating the updated training may take longer than flight tests.


There are fundamental changes to the software. That doesn't mean you only test the desired results. You have to do a regression test of everything.


I don't believe the FAA is going to do the regression testing. I would assume (and I could be wrong) that Boeing would do this before submitting for certification and submit documentation of the test results.

I would think that tests the FAA would be involved in performing and observing would be related to the inputs and outputs of the "black box" FCC. Basically setting up conditions around MCAS and observing results in an engineering simulator and in flight tests.

I don't think the FAA performs software testing every time Boeing (or Airbus etc.) designs a new plane with new avionics.
 
planecane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 10, 2019 10:15 am

oschkosch wrote:
Whilst checking for news, I found this article which surprised me to say the least!

http://industrynewsarchive.com/1306/boe ... est-error/

On a related note, even switching your handset to airplane mode will not keep it from being a danger on some jets by Boeing. A 2014 FAA survey disclosed that some cockpit displays on Boeing 777 and 737 jets are defenseless to WiFi interference, weather radar, and cell phone signals. Media reported earlier that while most of them have been restored, some jets still have the old models fitted by Honeywell International, Inc.


In designing the max, did Boeing make an old plane even older? :shock:

And not sure if this was posted before:
https://globalnews.ca/news/5747513/ethi ... lle-moore/

The family of Danielle Moore, one of the 18 Canadians killed in the Ethiopian Airlines crash, sent a letter to the FAA and Boeing with other families to investigate the 737 MAX. They are calling for re-certification of the plane, and for better pilot training.


“Ultimately, we would prefer (the 737) to not fly, but if they’re going to allow them to be un-grounded then we have to make sure they are safe. That would mean full certification of the plane.”


Yes, the second article has already been posted. I don't get the point of the article about displays in this thread. The MAX has newer model (and larger) displays than the NG. How does that make an "old plane even older?"
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 10, 2019 12:23 pm

planecane wrote:
RickNRoll wrote:
planecane wrote:
A month should be very realistic as long as the software performs as planned. Evaluating the updated training may take longer than flight tests.

There are fundamental changes to the software. That doesn't mean you only test the desired results. You have to do a regression test of everything.

I don't believe the FAA is going to do the regression testing. I would assume (and I could be wrong) that Boeing would do this before submitting for certification and submit documentation of the test results.

I would think that tests the FAA would be involved in performing and observing would be related to the inputs and outputs of the "black box" FCC. Basically setting up conditions around MCAS and observing results in an engineering simulator and in flight tests.

I don't think the FAA performs software testing every time Boeing (or Airbus etc.) designs a new plane with new avionics.

This is my understanding as well.

The vendor does the bulk of the testing typically with some degree of regulator involvement, the regulator reviews the results, the regulator may ask for additional tests and/or repeats of other tests in their presence, but it does not start all over from scratch.

Given that there were detailed leaks to both AvWeek and Seattle Times on the same day regarding the cosmic ray issue, my guess is that there is confidence that the problem is understood and a solution is on the way on the time scale given in both articles.

Of course that could be false confidence or something new cold crop up, time will tell.
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 10, 2019 12:39 pm

MrBretz wrote:
speedking wrote:
XRAYretired wrote:
Just like cosmic ray spallation, throw in a random post and you get a splatter of secondary articles. (as above).

Ray


Protons.. Neutrons.. I think a shield from Morons is needed.


How did the astronaunts ever get through the Van Allen belts? Those poor computers. Luckily, the FAA didn’t have to approve that. I know why: travel to the moon was faked. I will now leave my bozone area. Can we start the Q4 thread early?

It is heavily off-topic, but astronauts of moon flights got significant doses of radiation, with mission abort due to radiation overdose being one of backup plans. Larger computer cells of that time were naturally more immune to radiation.
On the same token, satellites on earth-synchronous orbit get a lot of irradiation and use extremely specialized chips. Those are quite expensive, to the point that using them on 737 would lead to a noticable increase in plane price.
 
f1restate
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 10, 2019 1:02 pm

tistpaa727 wrote:
Revelation wrote:

It seems we do so much of this, that the fact that Boeing flew a FAA test flight clearly doing the kinds of things that should trigger MCAS without the plane splashing into the ocean largely gets ignored.

Maybe Boeing has a grip on things and maybe October isn't that unreasonable after all...

I guess it's more exciting to talk about things few here have a grip on, such as high energy particles causing bit flips in microprocessor elements.


Agreed and I really do hope they have a grip on this situation. And...nothing more creeps up on them. It seems a lot of this thread is about more than just MCAS but all of the other problems arising / coming to light due to the increased scrutiny. In the end, I believe this will be one hell of a safe plane. So much scrutiny will have been placed on every aspect of this aircraft.

Off topic: The bit flip cosmic ray occurrence is considered one of the reasons for the Toyota runaway vehicles a while back where people would press the brake pedal and nothing would happen. See this story from 2013. https://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1319903#
That's interesting, however I believe the source of the corruption was poorly written code, not ionizing radiation.

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Some1Somewhere
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 10, 2019 1:11 pm

f1restate wrote:
tistpaa727 wrote:
Revelation wrote:

It seems we do so much of this, that the fact that Boeing flew a FAA test flight clearly doing the kinds of things that should trigger MCAS without the plane splashing into the ocean largely gets ignored.

Maybe Boeing has a grip on things and maybe October isn't that unreasonable after all...

I guess it's more exciting to talk about things few here have a grip on, such as high energy particles causing bit flips in microprocessor elements.


Agreed and I really do hope they have a grip on this situation. And...nothing more creeps up on them. It seems a lot of this thread is about more than just MCAS but all of the other problems arising / coming to light due to the increased scrutiny. In the end, I believe this will be one hell of a safe plane. So much scrutiny will have been placed on every aspect of this aircraft.

Off topic: The bit flip cosmic ray occurrence is considered one of the reasons for the Toyota runaway vehicles a while back where people would press the brake pedal and nothing would happen. See this story from 2013. https://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1319903#
That's interesting, however I believe the source of the corruption was poorly written code, not ionizing radiation.

Sent from my SM-G975F using Tapatalk


Poorly written code is one part of it - race conditions and bugs etc.

However, a significant part was that bit flips (from cosmic rays or anything else) were not protected against, and that could cause a critical task to stop.

I think I read somewhere that it was designed with the assumption it would be run on hardware with error-correcting memory, but that was cut in the production models.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 10, 2019 1:43 pm

RickNRoll wrote:
It is not being submitted to the FAA till then. So that is when testing of a major, and highly sensitive, change starts with the FAA. That is not going to take a few weeks.

Why not, what else does the FAA have to do?
Based on these threads we know that Boeing does all the testing, the last MAX7 test flights were done by Boeing pilots, Boeing does all the paperwork, Boeing self certifies, all the FAA has to do is to sign off on what Boeing has done. Remember also that by getting rid of their staff the FAA has to rely on Boeing, and since they already did some test in June and found the radiation issue which Boeing is now fixing, two to three weeks should be sufficient for the FAA to show face.
Just saying.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 10, 2019 2:23 pm

f1restate wrote:
That's interesting, however I believe the source of the corruption was poorly written code, not ionizing radiation.

MCAS 1.0 clearly was a poor design perhaps amplified by poor coding.

The latest issue discovered in July was caused by FAA/Boeing deliberately simulating the effects of ionizing radiation by injecting errors into the code/data to simulate the worst case scenarios of the worst case event of five bits flipping due to cosmic rays / ionizing radiation during one flight, odds of which are said to be in the ten-trillion to one range.

I find it interesting that even back in March, Peter Lemme was discussing the solution that not just addresses MCAS but also addresses cosmic rays:

A dual channel mandate would require CPU#1 from FCC#1 and CPU#1 form FCC#2 both calculate commands. The active FCC command is valid only if it agrees with the non-active FCC command calculation.

A dual channel mandate could require CPU#2 from FCC#1 and FCC#2 to both calculate commands and to compare that to their CPU#1 command values. A difference by either FCC CPU#2 should raise a flight deck alert.

The Mach trim, Speed trim, and MCAS commands should probably be inhibited while only one sensor or one FCC is available. In each case, pilot awareness of the loss of augmentation may be the safest course of action.

Ref: https://www.satcom.guru/2018/11/737-fcc ... mmand.html

Personally I think if the ex-Boeing engineer was writing these thoughts to his blog in March it's pretty likely the engineers inside Boeing were having similar thoughts even earlier.

As I wrote above, even when the first reports of the "microprocessor issue" were being raised there were also reports of addressing this via an architecture change that was begun as early as last year, presumably after the ET tragedy got people thinking of how to improve the system.
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Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
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f1restate
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 10, 2019 2:41 pm

Revelation wrote:
f1restate wrote:
That's interesting, however I believe the source of the corruption was poorly written code, not ionizing radiation.

MCAS 1.0 clearly was a poor design perhaps amplified by poor coding.

The latest issue discovered in July was caused by FAA/Boeing deliberately simulating the effects of ionizing radiation by injecting errors into the code/data to simulate the worst case scenarios of the worst case event of five bits flipping due to cosmic rays / ionizing radiation during one flight, odds of which are said to be in the ten-trillion to one range.

I find it interesting that even back in March, Peter Lemme was discussing the solution that not just addresses MCAS but also addresses cosmic rays:

A dual channel mandate would require CPU#1 from FCC#1 and CPU#1 form FCC#2 both calculate commands. The active FCC command is valid only if it agrees with the non-active FCC command calculation.

A dual channel mandate could require CPU#2 from FCC#1 and FCC#2 to both calculate commands and to compare that to their CPU#1 command values. A difference by either FCC CPU#2 should raise a flight deck alert.

The Mach trim, Speed trim, and MCAS commands should probably be inhibited while only one sensor or one FCC is available. In each case, pilot awareness of the loss of augmentation may be the safest course of action.

Ref: https://www.satcom.guru/2018/11/737-fcc ... mmand.html

Personally I think if the ex-Boeing engineer was writing these thoughts to his blog in March it's pretty likely the engineers inside Boeing were having similar thoughts even earlier.

As I wrote above, even when the first reports of the "microprocessor issue" were being raised there were also reports of addressing this via an architecture change that was begun as early as last year, presumably after the ET tragedy got people thinking of how to improve the system.
But is all of what he is suggesting feasible ? In each FCC, both CPUs are different architectures, and also have different tasks? So you can't properly run the same command and compare output. I must have been mistaken, since obviously the guy is actual avionics engineer.

The other part of the suggestion: comparing the output from both FCCs of course makes total sense and is current rumoured re-design.

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XRAYretired
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 10, 2019 3:56 pm

Revelation wrote:
f1restate wrote:
That's interesting, however I believe the source of the corruption was poorly written code, not ionizing radiation.

MCAS 1.0 clearly was a poor design perhaps amplified by poor coding.

The latest issue discovered in July was caused by FAA/Boeing deliberately simulating the effects of ionizing radiation by injecting errors into the code/data to simulate the worst case scenarios of the worst case event of five bits flipping due to cosmic rays / ionizing radiation during one flight, odds of which are said to be in the ten-trillion to one range.

I find it interesting that even back in March, Peter Lemme was discussing the solution that not just addresses MCAS but also addresses cosmic rays:

A dual channel mandate would require CPU#1 from FCC#1 and CPU#1 form FCC#2 both calculate commands. The active FCC command is valid only if it agrees with the non-active FCC command calculation.

A dual channel mandate could require CPU#2 from FCC#1 and FCC#2 to both calculate commands and to compare that to their CPU#1 command values. A difference by either FCC CPU#2 should raise a flight deck alert.

The Mach trim, Speed trim, and MCAS commands should probably be inhibited while only one sensor or one FCC is available. In each case, pilot awareness of the loss of augmentation may be the safest course of action.

Ref: https://www.satcom.guru/2018/11/737-fcc ... mmand.html

Personally I think if the ex-Boeing engineer was writing these thoughts to his blog in March it's pretty likely the engineers inside Boeing were having similar thoughts even earlier.

As I wrote above, even when the first reports of the "microprocessor issue" were being raised there were also reports of addressing this via an architecture change that was begun as early as last year, presumably after the ET tragedy got people thinking of how to improve the system.

In my view, all the data we have is explained by incompetent design of MCAS V1.0, there is no evidence of any software implementation error.

Boeing may well have considered some form of dual channel solution 10, 20 or even 30 years ago, and its not some far out design concept. The question is why have they persisted with the current architecture despite opportunities to do otherwise.

Ray
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 10, 2019 4:05 pm

f1restate wrote:
Revelation wrote:
f1restate wrote:
That's interesting, however I believe the source of the corruption was poorly written code, not ionizing radiation.

MCAS 1.0 clearly was a poor design perhaps amplified by poor coding.

The latest issue discovered in July was caused by FAA/Boeing deliberately simulating the effects of ionizing radiation by injecting errors into the code/data to simulate the worst case scenarios of the worst case event of five bits flipping due to cosmic rays / ionizing radiation during one flight, odds of which are said to be in the ten-trillion to one range.

I find it interesting that even back in March, Peter Lemme was discussing the solution that not just addresses MCAS but also addresses cosmic rays:

A dual channel mandate would require CPU#1 from FCC#1 and CPU#1 form FCC#2 both calculate commands. The active FCC command is valid only if it agrees with the non-active FCC command calculation.

A dual channel mandate could require CPU#2 from FCC#1 and FCC#2 to both calculate commands and to compare that to their CPU#1 command values. A difference by either FCC CPU#2 should raise a flight deck alert.

The Mach trim, Speed trim, and MCAS commands should probably be inhibited while only one sensor or one FCC is available. In each case, pilot awareness of the loss of augmentation may be the safest course of action.

Ref: https://www.satcom.guru/2018/11/737-fcc ... mmand.html

Personally I think if the ex-Boeing engineer was writing these thoughts to his blog in March it's pretty likely the engineers inside Boeing were having similar thoughts even earlier.

As I wrote above, even when the first reports of the "microprocessor issue" were being raised there were also reports of addressing this via an architecture change that was begun as early as last year, presumably after the ET tragedy got people thinking of how to improve the system.
But is all of what he is suggesting feasible ? In each FCC, both CPUs are different architectures, and also have different tasks? So you can't properly run the same command and compare output. I must have been mistaken, since obviously the guy is actual avionics engineer.

The other part of the suggestion: comparing the output from both FCCs of course makes total sense and is current rumoured re-design.

Sent from my SM-G975F using Tapatalk

All entirely feasible. It is likely that some critical functions are already compared CPU to CPU and FCC to FCC. The software design is common across the CPU's, so output can reasonably be assumed comparable within tight bounds. and FCC to FCC within the accuracy and resolution of the of the two sensor sets.

It may be that Boeing are actually going a step further that Peter has covered in that the words 'Active/Standby' are used. This may imply that their intent is also to switch between FCCs if one is declared incapable rather than just kicking out of the automation.

Ray
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 10, 2019 4:46 pm

A new report puts the lost revenue at $4.1 billion loss by airlines due to the 737MAX grounding

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tedreed/20 ... 6b3e491fdf
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 10, 2019 7:11 pm

Do we know the kind of compensation airlines will be getting? Will they be coming from insurances or from Boeing?
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 10, 2019 7:52 pm

3.3B for Air Canada doesn't surprise me, almost 1/4 of their narrowbody fleet were grounded. Now that AC is not exercising options on their 787s, I wonder what kind of compensation Boeing is providing the them? B owes AC big time!
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 10, 2019 8:30 pm

qf789 wrote:
A new report puts the lost revenue at $4.1 billion loss by airlines due to the 737MAX grounding

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tedreed/20 ... 6b3e491fdf


I'm trying to make sense of the numbers. 4.1B total lost revenues, and at the same time "lost revenue at $3.7 billion for China Southern, $3.3 billion for Air Canada, $2.9 billion for Southwest, $2.7 billion for Turkish Airlines and $2.2 billion for American." Huh? They need to get their math checked out.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 10, 2019 9:05 pm

ArgentoSystems wrote:
qf789 wrote:
A new report puts the lost revenue at $4.1 billion loss by airlines due to the 737MAX grounding

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tedreed/20 ... 6b3e491fdf


I'm trying to make sense of the numbers. 4.1B total lost revenues, and at the same time "lost revenue at $3.7 billion for China Southern, $3.3 billion for Air Canada, $2.9 billion for Southwest, $2.7 billion for Turkish Airlines and $2.2 billion for American." Huh? They need to get their math checked out.


$4.1 billion is Boeing’s loss.

The numbers for the airlines are how much those airlines lost from not having the 737MAX in their fleet.
The plural of Airbus is Airbuses. Airbii is not a word.
There is no 787-800, nor 787-900 or 747-800. It's 787-8, 787-9, and 747-8.
A321neoLR is also unnecessary. It's simply A321LR.
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 10, 2019 9:06 pm

hOMSaR wrote:
ArgentoSystems wrote:
qf789 wrote:
A new report puts the lost revenue at $4.1 billion loss by airlines due to the 737MAX grounding

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tedreed/20 ... 6b3e491fdf


I'm trying to make sense of the numbers. 4.1B total lost revenues, and at the same time "lost revenue at $3.7 billion for China Southern, $3.3 billion for Air Canada, $2.9 billion for Southwest, $2.7 billion for Turkish Airlines and $2.2 billion for American." Huh? They need to get their math checked out.


$4.1 billion is Boeing’s loss.

The numbers for the airlines are how much those airlines lost from not having the 737MAX in their fleet.


Actually, I misread that, and now I’m just as confused as you are. They do say total airline losses of $4.1 billion, but if five airlines have losses of $2+ billion each, that...doesn’t make sense.
The plural of Airbus is Airbuses. Airbii is not a word.
There is no 787-800, nor 787-900 or 747-800. It's 787-8, 787-9, and 747-8.
A321neoLR is also unnecessary. It's simply A321LR.
Airplanes don't have isles, they have aisles.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 10, 2019 9:22 pm

hOMSaR wrote:
hOMSaR wrote:
ArgentoSystems wrote:

I'm trying to make sense of the numbers. 4.1B total lost revenues, and at the same time "lost revenue at $3.7 billion for China Southern, $3.3 billion for Air Canada, $2.9 billion for Southwest, $2.7 billion for Turkish Airlines and $2.2 billion for American." Huh? They need to get their math checked out.


$4.1 billion is Boeing’s loss.

The numbers for the airlines are how much those airlines lost from not having the 737MAX in their fleet.


Actually, I misread that, and now I’m just as confused as you are. They do say total airline losses of $4.1 billion, but if five airlines have losses of $2+ billion each, that...doesn’t make sense.

Just read the numbers China Southern loss of seats =3.7 million. Estimate revenue cost $100 per. Total estimated revenue cost $370 million - not Billion. Quite poor really for a financial report, school boy error.

Ray
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 10, 2019 9:36 pm

So do these 1,4 Billion $ will come as claims towards Boeing from the airlines to Boeing? Are they accounted for in Boeing 4,x Billion $ reported in their last quarters financial report or do they come on top?

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PacoMartin
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 10, 2019 9:43 pm

XRAYretired wrote:
Just read the numbers China Southern loss of seats =3.7 million. Estimate revenue cost $100 per. Total estimated revenue cost $370 million - not Billion. Quite poor really for a financial report, school boy error.

Ray


Multiply by $1000 instead of $100. It could happen to anyone.

I've seen a lot of contracts, and it is amazing how often that kind of thing happens.
 
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flyingphil
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 10, 2019 10:40 pm

So its good news for the leasing companies..

“Short-term lease rates for some older Boeing jets increased about 40% since the grounding, according to IBA Aero.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/10/boeing- ... lines.html
 
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flyingphil
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 10, 2019 11:05 pm

gatibosgru wrote:
Do we know the kind of compensation airlines will be getting? Will they be coming from insurances or from Boeing?


Good question.. I guess it will depend on the type of insurance cover they have in place and its terms and conditions.

It wont be both the insurers and Boeing as you cant insure the same risk twice - moral hazard rules.

I suspect Boeing will be on the hook as the product is defective and currently unusable.
 
prebennorholm
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 11, 2019 1:53 am

qf789 wrote:
A new report puts the lost revenue at $4.1 billion loss by airlines due to the 737MAX grounding

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tedreed/20 ... 6b3e491fdf

That's only one side of the story. MAX-free airlines are having a field day. Take SAS as an example. Their major competitor Norwegian has its capacity seriously reduced. In addition Norwegian is in between, due to too few planes, suffering massive delays which have scared especially business travelers away to SAS. Several other SAS competitors are hampered likewise, but to a lessor extent.

Leasing companies are shoveling in money, partly on old planes which otherwise would be sitting in a desert awaiting scrapping.

Airlines with grounded MAX planes and / or undelivered planes during the last 5 months of course loses revenue due to reduced activity. But their revenue management systems will also calculate higher fares than otherwise, due to the overall reduced air traffic capacity. So their total loss will be less than claimed in the report, very hard or next to impossible to calculate, or rather pure guesswork.

Boeing knows all that. They will of course fix the planes, and pay contractual compensations for late delivered planes.

But compensations for lost revenue? That is going to be an interesting issue. My guess is that it will be a very long lasting issue. We may still see courts working on it in ten years time. Likely the airlines will in the end get a lot less than what they today are telling their shareholders they are "hoping" for. And they know that very well.
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smartplane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 11, 2019 2:40 am

XRAYretired wrote:
hOMSaR wrote:
hOMSaR wrote:

$4.1 billion is Boeing’s loss.

The numbers for the airlines are how much those airlines lost from not having the 737MAX in their fleet.


Actually, I misread that, and now I’m just as confused as you are. They do say total airline losses of $4.1 billion, but if five airlines have losses of $2+ billion each, that...doesn’t make sense.

Just read the numbers China Southern loss of seats =3.7 million. Estimate revenue cost $100 per. Total estimated revenue cost $370 million - not Billion. Quite poor really for a financial report, school boy error.

Ray

If the MAX was connecting passengers to an international flight, then potentially the revenue lost is more than just the MAX flight.

Most airlines have agreed a formula with Boeing, which has already been extended twice.
 
smartplane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 11, 2019 2:48 am

prebennorholm wrote:
qf789 wrote:
A new report puts the lost revenue at $4.1 billion loss by airlines due to the 737MAX grounding

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tedreed/20 ... 6b3e491fdf

Leasing companies are shoveling in money, partly on old planes which otherwise would be sitting in a desert awaiting scrapping.

Only on aircraft that can be brought back to service as you describe, and many of those are being heavily discounted (or free) as compensation for lessees who can't receive a new MAX as contracted.

Otherwise, they are in the same position as the airlines. Milestone payments frozen in undelivered new aircraft in storage. Lessees on lease payment holidays. Contract breaches on new leases where aircraft cannot be delivered. Seeking additional credit lines to cover the aforementioned.
 
planecane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 11, 2019 3:47 am

smartplane wrote:
prebennorholm wrote:
qf789 wrote:
A new report puts the lost revenue at $4.1 billion loss by airlines due to the 737MAX grounding

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tedreed/20 ... 6b3e491fdf

Leasing companies are shoveling in money, partly on old planes which otherwise would be sitting in a desert awaiting scrapping.

Only on aircraft that can be brought back to service as you describe, and many of those are being heavily discounted (or free) as compensation for lessees who can't receive a new MAX as contracted.

Otherwise, they are in the same position as the airlines. Milestone payments frozen in undelivered new aircraft in storage. Lessees on lease payment holidays. Contract breaches on new leases where aircraft cannot be delivered. Seeking additional credit lines to cover the aforementioned.


Unless the leasing companies have very bad legal departments, there will be clauses in their purchase contracts with Boeing whereby Boeing indemnifies the leasing company against claims resulting from Boeing's inability to deliver aircraft.
 
oschkosch
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 11, 2019 7:25 am

planecane wrote:
smartplane wrote:
prebennorholm wrote:
Leasing companies are shoveling in money, partly on old planes which otherwise would be sitting in a desert awaiting scrapping.

Only on aircraft that can be brought back to service as you describe, and many of those are being heavily discounted (or free) as compensation for lessees who can't receive a new MAX as contracted.

Otherwise, they are in the same position as the airlines. Milestone payments frozen in undelivered new aircraft in storage. Lessees on lease payment holidays. Contract breaches on new leases where aircraft cannot be delivered. Seeking additional credit lines to cover the aforementioned.


Unless the leasing companies have very bad legal departments, there will be clauses in their purchase contracts with Boeing whereby Boeing indemnifies the leasing company against claims resulting from Boeing's inability to deliver aircraft.




Reading the forbes article, I believe all these costs come on top of what Boeing has previously reported.

Meanwhile, China Southern and Air China are among the Chinese carriers seeking compensation from Boeing for order delays and losses caused by the grounding of the 737 Max, Bloomberg reported Tuesday. Chinese carriers say their losses from the grounding may top $500 million, Bloomberg said.

Here are the ten airlines that have felt the most impact in terms of lost seats, according to IAG. Grant said reporting from Ryan

China Southern 3,653,816
Air Canada 3,268,291
Southwest 2,962,400
Turkish Airways 2,706,367
American 2,186,292
Norwegian Air 2,178,036
Fly dubai 2,136,420
SpiceJet 2,002,266
LOT- Polish 1,968,600
Jet Airways 1,578,180
 
smartplane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 11, 2019 11:41 am

planecane wrote:
smartplane wrote:
prebennorholm wrote:
Leasing companies are shoveling in money, partly on old planes which otherwise would be sitting in a desert awaiting scrapping.

Only on aircraft that can be brought back to service as you describe, and many of those are being heavily discounted (or free) as compensation for lessees who can't receive a new MAX as contracted.

Otherwise, they are in the same position as the airlines. Milestone payments frozen in undelivered new aircraft in storage. Lessees on lease payment holidays. Contract breaches on new leases where aircraft cannot be delivered. Seeking additional credit lines to cover the aforementioned.


Unless the leasing companies have very bad legal departments, there will be clauses in their purchase contracts with Boeing whereby Boeing indemnifies the leasing company against claims resulting from Boeing's inability to deliver aircraft.

They don't have bad legal departments. Large lessors use their own templates, and smaller use A and B's.

Global grounding is force majeure territory.
 
oschkosch
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 11, 2019 12:06 pm

smartplane wrote:

Global grounding is force majeure territory.




Honestly? If you don't know what force majeure is, then it is better you don't write such a comment as above. It's probably the the most untruthful statement I have read in this thread.

The definition of force majeure is:
Force majeure refers to unanticipated, uncontrollable events such as acts of nature (ie. hurricanes or floods) or acts of people (ie. riots or wars).



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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 11, 2019 12:59 pm

oschkosch wrote:
smartplane wrote:
Global grounding is force majeure territory.

Honestly? If you don't know what force majeure is, then it is better you don't write such a comment as above. It's probably the most untruthful statement I have read in this thread.

The definition of force majeure is:
Force majeure refers to unanticipated, uncontrollable events such as acts of nature (ie. hurricanes or floods) or acts of people (ie. riots or wars).

Wow, that's a lot of outrage directed at a use of a statement with qualification, no?

It is better to look at the bright side: We now have something to top "making a safe plane safer"! :biggrin:
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oschkosch
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 11, 2019 1:06 pm

Revelation wrote:
Wow, that's a lot of outrage directed at a use of a statement with qualification, no?

It is better to look at the bright side: We now have something to top "making a safe plane safer"!


Sorry, my reply was not meant to come across as "angry" or "outraged".

But yes, we now have a new number 1. The design and successive failure of Mcas and thus the global max grounding are an act of god, aka Force Majeure. LOL!!!

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Vladex
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 11, 2019 1:32 pm

qf789 wrote:
A new report puts the lost revenue at $4.1 billion loss by airlines due to the 737MAX grounding

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tedreed/20 ... 6b3e491fdf



Airlines bear the responsibility for their choice of aircraft. In this case, it is said that Boeing built an aircraft that the airlines wanted, cheap and easy to use with some modern features that may or may not fit or work . Unless they can prove that they didn't want the airplane in the first place and that it was coerced and foisted upon them then this is just the cost of doing business.
 
lhrnue
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 11, 2019 2:23 pm

I just scrolled around in Google maps ... there is not a single aircraft parked at Boeing Field and Paine Field. At Renton about 15 aircraft are visible. What's going on there ... that was definitive not the case a couple of weeks ago.
 
Eiszeit
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 11, 2019 2:38 pm

Vladex wrote:
qf789 wrote:
A new report puts the lost revenue at $4.1 billion loss by airlines due to the 737MAX grounding

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tedreed/20 ... 6b3e491fdf



Airlines bear the responsibility for their choice of aircraft. In this case, it is said that Boeing built an aircraft that the airlines wanted, cheap and easy to use with some modern features that may or may not fit or work . Unless they can prove that they didn't want the airplane in the first place and that it was coerced and foisted upon them then this is just the cost of doing business.


Boeing sold an aircraft certified for commercial passenger service. If the aircraft loses the certification it is boeings problem, because they sold an item with different specifications than contractually agreed.
 
ArgentoSystems
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 11, 2019 2:54 pm

Vladex wrote:
Airlines bear the responsibility for their choice of aircraft. In this case, it is said that Boeing built an aircraft that the airlines wanted, cheap and easy to use with some modern features that may or may not fit or work . Unless they can prove that they didn't want the airplane in the first place and that it was coerced and foisted upon them then this is just the cost of doing business.

Nonsense. They might want cheap and easy, but that does not change the fact that Boeing is responsible that achieving these objectives is done in a way that does not compromise safety.
 
asdf
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 11, 2019 3:41 pm

lhrnue wrote:
I just scrolled around in Google maps ... there is not a single aircraft parked at Boeing Field and Paine Field. At Renton about 15 aircraft are visible. What's going on there ... that was definitive not the case a couple of weeks ago.


pfffffhhhh

google maps images are not a webcam
its not real rime
its renewed once a year or twice maybe ...
 
SEU
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 11, 2019 4:00 pm

Vladex wrote:
qf789 wrote:


Airlines bear the responsibility for their choice of aircraft. In this case, it is said that Boeing built an aircraft that the airlines wanted, cheap and easy to use with some modern features that may or may not fit or work . Unless they can prove that they didn't want the airplane in the first place and that it was coerced and foisted upon them then this is just the cost of doing business.


:banghead: ..... Ok, so you got sold a car that was promised to work, but when you drove it, the wheels came off killing your family. Shame on you for picking it because it looked to fit what you required. No blame on the manufacturer at all.
 
JAAlbert
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 11, 2019 4:24 pm

oschkosch wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Wow, that's a lot of outrage directed at a use of a statement with qualification, no?

It is better to look at the bright side: We now have something to top "making a safe plane safer"!


Sorry, my reply was not meant to come across as "angry" or "outraged".

But yes, we now have a new number 1. The design and successive failure of Mcas and thus the global max grounding are an act of god, aka Force Majeure. LOL!!!

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I didn't read the statement as him representing that the MCAS-led shutdown meets the law dictionary definition of "force majeure." Rather, I read it as stating the contracts between Boeing and the airlines/leases may define force majeure to include an event such as a global shutdown. That could just be the lawyer in me reading more into the statement than was intended! Still, parties can define terms and events any way they want in a contract -- it would be interesting to see just what sort of provisions are in these contracts that address (or potentially address) the MCAS situation, including compensation and excuses from performance.
 
bob75013
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 11, 2019 8:02 pm

qf789 wrote:
A new report puts the lost revenue at $4.1 billion loss by airlines due to the 737MAX grounding

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tedreed/20 ... 6b3e491fdf


Don't expect Boeing to pay lost revenue. If there had been no gronding and those planes had flown, then those flights might have produced some profit for the airlines.
That would be an appropriate amount for Boeing to pay.
 
ArgentoSystems
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 11, 2019 8:38 pm

bob75013 wrote:
Don't expect Boeing to pay lost revenue. If there had been no gronding and those planes had flown, then those flights might have produced some profit for the airlines.
That would be an appropriate amount for Boeing to pay.

Profit is revenue minus expenses. If I pay lease on the airplane, and have crews on payroll, but can not fly the plane, then I have all (ok, not all, since I don't burn fuel, but lion's share) of the expenses but no revenues. In this scenario, being compensated for just my lost profits, which are likely to be less than 25% of my expenses, is not going to cut it.
 
Ertro
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 11, 2019 9:04 pm

JAAlbert wrote:
I didn't read the statement as him representing that the MCAS-led shutdown meets the law dictionary definition of "force majeure." Rather, I read it as stating the contracts between Boeing and the airlines/leases may define force majeure to include an event such as a global shutdown. That could just be the lawyer in me reading more into the statement than was intended! Still, parties can define terms and events any way they want in a contract -- it would be interesting to see just what sort of provisions are in these contracts that address (or potentially address) the MCAS situation, including compensation and excuses from performance.


The non-lawyer in me would like to interpret words how they are more generally understood to mean and to me this situation sounds definitely not like a global shutdown or global grounding. There are multiple types of planes flying over many countries. What we have is just one type of plane that is not fit for the purpose it was sold to and I am reasonably sure the contract has clearly defined provisions for that. Global shutdown or global grounding might be force majeure but in global shutdown all 787, 777, A320, A350, C150 and G650 are also grounded and the sky is empty.
 
smartplane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 11, 2019 9:14 pm

oschkosch wrote:
smartplane wrote:

Global grounding is force majeure territory.




Honestly? If you don't know what force majeure is, then it is better you don't write such a comment as above. It's probably the the most untruthful statement I have read in this thread.

The definition of force majeure is:
Force majeure refers to unanticipated, uncontrollable events such as acts of nature (ie. hurricanes or floods) or acts of people (ie. riots or wars).

Get off your high horse. Reference is in relation to performance of contract, or frustration thereof, that is the inability to 'deliver' due to global grounding.

Comments are in relation to Boeing compensation. There are three elements of OEM compensation. 1. Covered in the contract. Global grounding preventing delivery is FM. 2. Implied / past precedents. 3. Compensation Agreement. Most MAX customers are on CA V.1 or V1.1 to be read in conjunction with the original Sale/Purchase contract. Customers will want / expect V2.0 if the grounding extends beyond the start of 4Q19.

MCAS failure is NOTHING to do with force majeure.
Last edited by smartplane on Sun Aug 11, 2019 9:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
jetmatt777
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 11, 2019 9:25 pm

It will likely be in Boeing’s best interest to negotiate with the affected airlines to offer discounts on future orders or even a price reduction to the contracts on already ordered airplanes. Boeing will want to hide the financial impact to airlines as much as possible. It could even be a combination of cash + “store” credit. That way the airlines can show their stockholders some bottom line relief.
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oschkosch
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 11, 2019 9:57 pm

smartplane wrote:
oschkosch wrote:
smartplane wrote:

Global grounding is force majeure territory.




Honestly? If you don't know what force majeure is, then it is better you don't write such a comment as above. It's probably the the most untruthful statement I have read in this thread.

The definition of force majeure is:
Force majeure refers to unanticipated, uncontrollable events such as acts of nature (ie. hurricanes or floods) or acts of people (ie. riots or wars).

Get off your high horse. Reference is in relation to performance of contract, or frustration thereof, that is the inability to 'deliver' due to global grounding.

Comments are in relation to Boeing compensation. There are three elements of OEM compensation. 1. Covered in the contract. Global grounding preventing delivery is FM. 2. Implied / past precedents. 3. Compensation Agreement. Most MAX customers are on CA V.1 or V1.1 to be read in conjunction with the original Sale/Purchase contract. Customers will want / expect V2.0 if the grounding extends beyond the start of 4Q19.

MCAS failure is NOTHING to do with force majeure.


lol! You come and turn your words around. Making it up as we go along or what are you doing?

And global grounding very clearly NOT a force majeure event. Grounding came due to Mcas failure. If Mcas and its failing is not force majeure, how can the grounding be force majeure?

Examples: The USA has a civil war and all factories of Boeing are in the war zone, making production and delivery of planes impossible. That is a force majeure event. Another one: Earthquakes make Boeing's major suppliers factories a pile of rubble, hence they cannot supply anything and thus Boeing cannot build planes. That is also a force majeure event.

Sir, I believe your horse may be higher than mine ;-)

But please, do care to show us where Boeing representatives have clearly said this whole thing is force majeure and they are therefore not able to be held liable for delays in planes being delivered, airlines losing revenue, pilots not earning money etc.

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ArgentoSystems
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 11, 2019 11:38 pm

smartplane wrote:
Comments are in relation to Boeing compensation. There are three elements of OEM compensation. 1. Covered in the contract. Global grounding preventing delivery is FM. 2. Implied / past precedents. 3. Compensation Agreement. Most MAX customers are on CA V.1 or V1.1 to be read in conjunction with the original Sale/Purchase contract. Customers will want / expect V2.0 if the grounding extends beyond the start of 4Q19.


Global grounding is not a force major no matter much mental gymnastic you employ. If I sign a contract with you to deliver me a product with certain characteristics and comes delivery time you find that the item that you wanted to deliver to me is undeliverable due to defects then it is you problem. I don't care how you deal with it. Maybe give me a free upgrade to a better product, or pay whatever fines are specified in contract.

FM is something you can't possibly envision in advance and that allows you to break contract without consequences. Global grounding of MAX will not let anybody get away from the fulfilling their contracts.

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