frmrCapCadet
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Tue Aug 20, 2019 6:31 pm

We expect old ladies and old men (me) to do fairly complicated things with their car in less than 4 seconds. People die when they don't. And most of us expect them to quit driving before they cause an accident. Contrary to popular legends most people do quit driving at about the right time. Relevance - 4 seconds is quite a long time in any number of circumstances.
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Tue Aug 20, 2019 6:59 pm

Alfons wrote:
After a million posts, and a thousand of them still writing that it was the pilots‘ fault/error...

I want to ask them to find one (american if you want) pilot, who would agree to take seat in the cockpit, right after take off when a dozen of lights started to blink. If you found just one pilot honestly agreeing being ready to start in real from this situation at the driver‘s seat, because he or she feels 100% secure to be able to bring back the plane in one piece... then I might start to consider this possibility.

I don‘t think you will find one.

Seems Boeing company pilots are flying MCAS 1.0 738s on KPAE -> KSKF transcon storage flights, so they are willfully putting themselves at the risk of such.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
planecane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Tue Aug 20, 2019 7:09 pm

rheinwaldner wrote:

planecane wrote:
I give up.

I somehow doubt it. What would you do with the spare time? ;)

The reason, why I say this, because you come across like somebody who entertains a full time job defending Boeing. 5% on topic (="Boeing made a mistake"), 95% off topic (pilots, training, hindsight knowledge).

planecane wrote:
I have not spent months trying to blame the pilots. I have spent months saying that I could understand how the engineers made the assumptions they did at the time and saying that the pilots could have saved the aircraft. I have repeatedly said that it was a bad design and that Boeing should be (and is being) blamed for creating a frequency of runaway stabilizer that it far beyond what is acceptable. I have stated that I expect pilots to be trained well enough and skilled enough to the point that they are able to save a plane if it is possible to save it and that I hope that every time I board a flight, the pilots have that training and skill.

Lets see:
- not spent months trying to blame the pilots: wrong, that topic is in 99% of your posts
- engineers did understandable assumptions: cant be more than in 5% of your posts, also this is wrong, management reportedly overruled concerns of MAX engineers.
- Boeing should be blamed for a bad design: cant be more than in 1% of your posts
- Pilots should be trained well enough: with this I agree. Only, are you aware that the same pilots are flying NGs without causing peaks in the accident statistics? So tell me, what is the issue? The pilots or the MAX? The MAX is the aircraft, that has the worst safety record of any new aircraft since many decades. It is so bad, that every 7th 737 overall would crash, if the whole family would have the accident rate of the MAX (and the crashes would even be for same main reason).


Nope, I'm done discussing this. Nobody on the "Boeing is greedy and evil" side wants to have a reasoned discussion about all aspects of the crashes. All you (and others) see in my posts is blaming the pilots and trying to absolve Boeing of blame which means that you are completely missing my point in most cases.

Saying that I believe that the pilots COULD have saved the planes is not blaming them. I have specifically stated multiple times that, the actions of the Lion Air crew were understandable due to the simultaneous issues and not knowing anything about MCAS. I have also said that if it turns out that electric trim was functioning when not cut off on ET302 then some responsibility has to be put either on ET for not disseminating the information or the crew for not understanding the information from the EAD. Notice I didn't say they were completely to blame or even should shoulder the majority of the blame but they can't be absolved of all responsibility if the electric trim was able to get the aircraft back in trim.

I have stated over and over and over and over and over again that Boeing should be blamed for a bad design. With respect to your last point, I have also said that because of the bad design, the rate of runaway stabilizer incidents was drastically increased on the MAX. That's the difference. I have serious doubt that either crew would have properly responded to a runaway stabilizer on an NG, especially if there were simultaneous warnings. Luckily, the NG seems to either very rarely or never experience a runaway stabilizer so we've never had to find out.

That's it. This is my last post in this thread until the final reports are released. Then, I will either admit that my opinions were wrong or point out where I was correct. I guess I'll have to find something else to do in my free time.
 
ArgentoSystems
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Tue Aug 20, 2019 7:20 pm

Boeing looking to hire ‘several hundred’ aircraft mechanics, maintenance specialists


So, does this mean they are getting ready for deliveries, or they are getting ready for winter storage?

https://www.columbiabasinherald.com/fro ... pecialists
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Tue Aug 20, 2019 7:30 pm

rheinwaldner wrote:
morrisond wrote:
Except it wasn't 40 seconds. The pilot in Command properly counteracted MCAS about 17 times over 9 minutes during which he had control before handing it over to the co-pilot who failed to properly counteract MCAS down. He handed over control to try and find the problem in the manuals - but unfortunately as Boeing didn't disclose it he never would have found it - he just needed to make the intuitive leap to turn off the bad system (malfunctioning electric trim).

Except it wasn't 17 times in 9 minutes. What a joke. Getting facts so wrong does not help to substantiate your point.
IMO it is also arrogant to call cutting the trim intuitive. Given the indicated errors and the aircraft behavior, among all the possible failures modes, trim runaway was far down on the list.


Sorry - I was wrong - it looks like MCAS triggered 28 times in 9 minutes and it was properly counteracted 23-24 times - my bad. I was doing that off of Memory.

Look at Page 14 of the Lionair Prelim report https://reports.aviation-safety.net/201 ... MINARY.pdf

I didn't say they should have made that intuitive leap - just that they could have. Nothing in there training would lead them to make that leap it just would have been nice if they had just like the third pilot on the previous flight did - too bad they didn't pass that tribal knowledge along.

I think you think I am talking about ET when I am talking about Lionair.
Last edited by morrisond on Tue Aug 20, 2019 7:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
MrBretz
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Tue Aug 20, 2019 7:34 pm

ArgentoSystems wrote:
Boeing looking to hire ‘several hundred’ aircraft mechanics, maintenance specialists


So, does this mean they are getting ready for deliveries, or they are getting ready for winter storage?

https://www.columbiabasinherald.com/fro ... pecialists


Sounds like maintenance during storage to me.

I wish Boeing would make a statement about what is going on in regards to when or if they have submitted their "fix" to the FAA. Maybe with the few 737 flights people see with fligtaware, Boeing is getting results for the FAA to review?
 
asdf
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Tue Aug 20, 2019 7:43 pm

par13del wrote:
rayfound wrote:
In all aviation accidents, it is almost ALWAYS a combination of human factors combined with mechanical or technical aspects.

Millions of people take to the air everyday, they must have faith and confidence in the systems to allow daily operations to continue, not many accidents are traced to mechanical only causes.
The FAA decided to test the bit flip issue, so far we have not seen the details on whether this issue also affects the NG, if it does, and it is an issue that will keep the MAX grounded, what would be the rationale for not also grounding the thousands of NG's flying around?


Because they have a pretty good accident statistic
No reason to act

Obvisualy very rare Need of Turning the handwheel

And No flight automation which turns the nose into the ground if something goes wrong (if some bits flip)

The max is completely other aerea
Has Not much in Common with the NG

Engines more up Front
Engines higher
Abnormal Center of gravity
More Need to trim if something Goes wrong
There the much to small trim Wheel Comes in Play
Pilots can Not counteract faulty flight automation

Not without Proper sim TRAINING
And Not with it either
 
Sooner787
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Tue Aug 20, 2019 8:03 pm

ArgentoSystems wrote:
Boeing looking to hire ‘several hundred’ aircraft mechanics, maintenance specialists


So, does this mean they are getting ready for deliveries, or they are getting ready for winter storage?

https://www.columbiabasinherald.com/fro ... pecialists


Looks like Boeing is gearing up for return to service ...per Dominic Gates

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... o-service/
 
oschkosch
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Tue Aug 20, 2019 8:24 pm

News on cnn:

https://edition-m.cnn.com/2019/08/20/po ... cnn.com%2F

An international panel created after two Boeing 737 MAXcrashes is expected to recommend the Federal Aviation Administration change the way it certifies planes and address safety concerns that aircraft technology is becoming far more sophisticated than the regulations that govern it, a source familiar with the matter tells CNN.

In particular, the JATR has been looking into ways to prevent issues from slipping through the cracks, as appears to have happened with the MCAS automated stabilization system that investigators believe is linked to both MAX crashes.

The JATR's work is separate from the review FAA will conduct of the 737 MAX to determine when to allow it to fly again in the US.

Its conclusions and recommendations could, though, prove to be a bellwether for how other countries will handle the decisions allow the plane to resume flying through their own airspace. Some in the aviation community have said worldwide confidence in the FAA has been shaken, and that other countries' aviation authorities may be less willing to trust the FAA's eventual determination that the MAX is safe to fly.

The FAA has said the panel's areas of focus include the design and certification of the MAX, compliance with federal regulations and specifically its "automated flight control system."



Doesn't sound very good to me!


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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Tue Aug 20, 2019 8:26 pm

MrBretz wrote:
Sounds like maintenance during storage to me.

I wish Boeing would make a statement about what is going on in regards to when or if they have submitted their "fix" to the FAA. Maybe with the few 737 flights people see with fligtaware, Boeing is getting results for the FAA to review?

Boeing has stated that they will submit their fix in September for approval by the FAA, so far just as in the last submission, we have not seen anything from the FAA of any new test they intend to perform, perhaps we should be looking at them to confirm that they have not held anything back for another "surprise".
 
oschkosch
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Tue Aug 20, 2019 8:31 pm

and on forbes the estimate is not before 2020!

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesasqui ... d4dc6c3528


And UK Yellow Press is hitting it fully!

https://www.thesun.co.uk/travel/9750516 ... ts-booked/


Your next flight could be on a troubled Boeing 737 Max jet – here’s how to check and rebook!



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ArgentoSystems
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Tue Aug 20, 2019 8:31 pm

Sooner787 wrote:

Looks like Boeing is gearing up for return to service ...per Dominic Gates

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... o-service/

I don't know, to me sounds like they are getting ready for storage. For starters, how long are they going to bs with estimates? If I start a 3 month project, 2 month in I will sure as hell know with 100% certainty whether I'd be able to complete it in time or not. If they intend to submit "certification package" in Sep, by now they need to have all of the work done, leaving one last month for fooling around and testing. Also I don't understand why they keep giving estimates of return to service, when they can't control it. They do control process of fixing, so why not only provide timeline for that?
 
kalvado
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Tue Aug 20, 2019 9:10 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
We expect old ladies and old men (me) to do fairly complicated things with their car in less than 4 seconds. People die when they don't. And most of us expect them to quit driving before they cause an accident. Contrary to popular legends most people do quit driving at about the right time. Relevance - 4 seconds is quite a long time in any number of circumstances.

Car has effectively 3 controls - steering wheel and 2 pedals, and a universal bailout approach: slow down, stop, set parking brake, take a deep breath.
Plane has a few more controls (rudder, elevator, stab trim, ailerons, air brakes, flaps, thrust) and no universal bailout. Landing at nearest airport may be a complicated task (especially if the plane has control problems), and stopping mid-air is a guaranteed crash...
And even without that - for somewhat closer analogy, compare MCAS situation with Toyota unintended acceleration, where a lot of affected drivers ended up not surviving the event..
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Tue Aug 20, 2019 9:17 pm

MrBretz wrote:
I wish Boeing would make a statement about what is going on in regards to when or if they have submitted their "fix" to the FAA. Maybe with the few 737 flights people see with fligtaware, Boeing is getting results for the FAA to review?

The link in #2461 ( viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1426007&p=21600983#p21601103 ) says:

The company reiterated that it plans to submit a final certification package to the FAA “once we have satisfied all of their requirements, which we currently estimate will occur on a timeframe to support an early fourth quarter return to service.”

The finalized submission to the FAA is expected next month, and clearance to fly again could come within a month or so of that. Some MAXs could return to service within weeks of that clearance.


oschkosch wrote:
and on forbes the estimate is not before 2020!

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesasqui ... d4dc6c3528

Not sure I would rely on the opinion of the air mile chaser.

And UK Yellow Press is hitting it fully!

https://www.thesun.co.uk/travel/9750516 ... ts-booked/

Same source features an article saying a German amusement park is shutting down a ride because it looks like a bunch of swastikas flying in formation.

I think it's brown press rather than yellow.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
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StTim
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Tue Aug 20, 2019 9:40 pm

kalvado wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
We expect old ladies and old men (me) to do fairly complicated things with their car in less than 4 seconds. People die when they don't. And most of us expect them to quit driving before they cause an accident. Contrary to popular legends most people do quit driving at about the right time. Relevance - 4 seconds is quite a long time in any number of circumstances.

Car has effectively 3 controls - steering wheel and 2 pedals, and a universal bailout approach: slow down, stop, set parking brake, take a deep breath.
Plane has a few more controls (rudder, elevator, stab trim, ailerons, air brakes, flaps, thrust) and no universal bailout. Landing at nearest airport may be a complicated task (especially if the plane has control problems), and stopping mid-air is a guaranteed crash...
And even without that - for somewhat closer analogy, compare MCAS situation with Toyota unintended acceleration, where a lot of affected drivers ended up not surviving the event..

Are you American?

Most of the rest of the world drives cars with more than two pedals.
 
RickNRoll
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Tue Aug 20, 2019 9:53 pm

Revelation wrote:
Alfons wrote:
After a million posts, and a thousand of them still writing that it was the pilots‘ fault/error...

I want to ask them to find one (american if you want) pilot, who would agree to take seat in the cockpit, right after take off when a dozen of lights started to blink. If you found just one pilot honestly agreeing being ready to start in real from this situation at the driver‘s seat, because he or she feels 100% secure to be able to bring back the plane in one piece... then I might start to consider this possibility.

I don‘t think you will find one.

Seems Boeing company pilots are flying MCAS 1.0 738s on KPAE -> KSKF transcon storage flights, so they are willfully putting themselves at the risk of such.


I would bet a pound to a penny they had a run on a simulator first.
 
bennett123
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Tue Aug 20, 2019 10:08 pm

Two questions;

How simple is it going to be to find hundreds of technicians, particularly for a short term hire?.

Secondly, how long will it take to recruit people and complete induction.
 
asdf
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Tue Aug 20, 2019 10:13 pm

bennett123 wrote:
Two questions;

How simple is it going to be to find hundreds of technicians, particularly for a short term hire?.

Secondly, how long will it take to recruit people and complete induction.


time of finding those people depend on the salary you will pay
induction depends on the job they are supposed to do

but overall i think between two and three months are a good bet for average tasks
 
bob75013
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Tue Aug 20, 2019 10:14 pm

RickNRoll wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Alfons wrote:
After a million posts, and a thousand of them still writing that it was the pilots‘ fault/error...

I want to ask them to find one (american if you want) pilot, who would agree to take seat in the cockpit, right after take off when a dozen of lights started to blink. If you found just one pilot honestly agreeing being ready to start in real from this situation at the driver‘s seat, because he or she feels 100% secure to be able to bring back the plane in one piece... then I might start to consider this possibility.

I don‘t think you will find one.

Seems Boeing company pilots are flying MCAS 1.0 738s on KPAE -> KSKF transcon storage flights, so they are willfully putting themselves at the risk of such.


I would bet a pound to a penny they had a run on a simulator first.



The point is Revelation found at least one, didn't he?
 
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trpmb6
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Tue Aug 20, 2019 10:40 pm

Revelation wrote:
MrBretz wrote:
I wish Boeing would make a statement about what is going on in regards to when or if they have submitted their "fix" to the FAA. Maybe with the few 737 flights people see with fligtaware, Boeing is getting results for the FAA to review?

The link in #2461 ( viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1426007&p=21600983#p21601103 ) says:

The company reiterated that it plans to submit a final certification package to the FAA “once we have satisfied all of their requirements, which we currently estimate will occur on a timeframe to support an early fourth quarter return to service.”

The finalized submission to the FAA is expected next month, and clearance to fly again could come within a month or so of that. Some MAXs could return to service within weeks of that clearance.


oschkosch wrote:
and on forbes the estimate is not before 2020!

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesasqui ... d4dc6c3528

Not sure I would rely on the opinion of the air mile chaser.

And UK Yellow Press is hitting it fully!

https://www.thesun.co.uk/travel/9750516 ... ts-booked/

Same source features an article saying a German amusement park is shutting down a ride because it looks like a bunch of swastikas flying in formation.

I think it's brown press rather than yellow.


The air mile chaser from Forbes may have helped me buy a better position in BA today thanks to that little dip. Why anyone would believe his drivel when Boeing continues to make the same statement and if they were making that statement while knowing otherwise they would have a lot of angry investors on their hands.. myself included.
 
ubeema
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Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Tue Aug 20, 2019 10:41 pm

kalvado wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
We expect old ladies and old men (me) to do fairly complicated things with their car in less than 4 seconds. People die when they don't. And most of us expect them to quit driving before they cause an accident. Contrary to popular legends most people do quit driving at about the right time. Relevance - 4 seconds is quite a long time in any number of circumstances.

Car has effectively 3 controls - steering wheel and 2 pedals, and a universal bailout approach: slow down, stop, set parking brake, take a deep breath.
Plane has a few more controls (rudder, elevator, stab trim, ailerons, air brakes, flaps, thrust) and no universal bailout. Landing at nearest airport may be a complicated task (especially if the plane has control problems), and stopping mid-air is a guaranteed crash...
And even without that - for somewhat closer analogy, compare MCAS situation with Toyota unintended acceleration, where a lot of affected drivers ended up not surviving the event..

General Motors ignition switch debacle officially uncovered circa 2014 would be closer. 100+ confirmed casualties and many more serious injuries. Sorry back to topic
 
ArgentoSystems
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Tue Aug 20, 2019 10:46 pm

trpmb6 wrote:
Boeing continues to make the same statement and if they were making that statement while knowing otherwise they would have a lot of angry investors on their hands.. myself included.

If you pay attention to their language, they are explicitly vague and don't give any dates even for thing that they can control, like completion of update work on Max. And they always "estimate". So, you can be angry all you want, (likely you will be very soon) but they avoid making any firm promises, so they are golden.
 
ArgentoSystems
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Tue Aug 20, 2019 10:56 pm

As for how soon they can hire "several hundred" people, it is a town of 20K people. Might take a while, but apparently they are targeting out of town help, since they are going to provide accommodation. I've read the job posting, and it looks like the only required education is school diploma or GED. Not much. Sounds like glorified general labor, so pretty much anybody qualifies. But they will need training. So I don't know, they are saying it is temporary, but again this does not add up.
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Tue Aug 20, 2019 11:03 pm

ArgentoSystems wrote:
As for how soon they can hire "several hundred" people, it is a town of 20K people. Might take a while, but apparently they are targeting out of town help, since they are going to provide accommodation. I've read the job posting, and it looks like the only required education is school diploma or GED. Not much. Sounds like glorified general labor, so pretty much anybody qualifies. But they will need training. So I don't know, they are saying it is temporary, but again this does not add up.


They are going to use them with Long Ropes to move the planes around so the tires don't flat spot.
 
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7BOEING7
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Tue Aug 20, 2019 11:18 pm

ArgentoSystems wrote:
As for how soon they can hire "several hundred" people, it is a town of 20K people. Might take a while, but apparently they are targeting out of town help, since they are going to provide accommodation. I've read the job posting, and it looks like the only required education is school diploma or GED. Not much. Sounds like glorified general labor, so pretty much anybody qualifies. But they will need training. So I don't know, they are saying it is temporary, but again this does not add up.


Maybe if you’d spent more time reading the various ads you would have seen the GED was only the beginning with experience requirements for that one and FAA license requirements for others. So pretty much nobody qualifies unless you’re licensed or have a lot of job experience in another listed field so you can be trained to the Boeing system.
 
ArgentoSystems
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Tue Aug 20, 2019 11:24 pm

7BOEING7 wrote:
Maybe if you’d spent more time reading the various ads you would have seen the GED was only the beginning with experience requirements for that one and FAA license requirements for others. So pretty much nobody qualifies unless you’re licensed or have a lot of job experience in another listed field so you can be trained to the Boeing system.

Fair enough. Then it makes the hiring so much harder.
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Aug 21, 2019 12:13 am

ArgentoSystems wrote:
Fair enough. Then it makes the hiring so much harder.

Well the flip side is:
1. Boeing said they would submit their fix to the FAA in September 2019
2. We know they were also running engineering test flights for the FAA - recall the MAX 7 engineering flights up thread.
3. Boeing has continued to build 737's at 40+ per month
4. If the fix is accepted, Boeing will have over 100 already built 737's which require the software update and get prepared for test flights then delivery.

Boeing will need a lot of grunt labour as well as specialist to get the a/c ready, anyone cannot load the software, anyone cannot update a/c logs, in addition Boeing also slows down in December. I suspect a lot of volunteers for overtime, also expect vendors to allow their staff "time off" even for one month to be hired on as a project labour to clear as much backlog as possible, we could probably include those who retired or took early separation packages.

There are thousands of jobs tied to Boeing and the MAX, and unless they intend to cease working with Boeing, it is in all their interest when the a/c is cleared to get the a/c in the hands of the airlines as fast as possible.
I suspect this will be all about Boeing cash flow versus clearing the parking lots, but that is the way of this thread, so.....
 
oschkosch
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Aug 21, 2019 5:28 am

Revelation wrote:
And UK Yellow Press is hitting it fully!

https://www.thesun.co.uk/travel/9750516 ... ts-booked/

Same source features an article saying a German amusement park is shutting down a ride because it looks like a bunch of swastikas flying in formation.

I think it's brown press rather than yellow.



Whether u call it brown or yellow: the fact is The Sun is pushing it back into the public eye. Yes, it it sensationalist "journalism", but the general public reads those headlines and gets scared.


Edit: even the reputable Times says the following:

Flights for sale on ‘deathtrap’ 737s
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/flig ... -x2wk9k2rx
 
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AirlineCritic
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Aug 21, 2019 5:44 am

oschkosch wrote:
News on cnn:

https://edition-m.cnn.com/2019/08/20/po ... cnn.com%2F

An international panel created after two Boeing 737 MAXcrashes is expected to recommend the Federal Aviation Administration change the way it certifies planes and address safety concerns that aircraft technology is becoming far more sophisticated than the regulations that govern it, a source familiar with the matter tells CNN.

In particular, the JATR has been looking into ways to prevent issues from slipping through the cracks, as appears to have happened with the MCAS automated stabilization system that investigators believe is linked to both MAX crashes.

...



Doesn't sound very good to me!


On the contrary -- it sounds good to me. That is exactly what they should be doing. It may take a bit of time, but it will improve the certification process and, ultimately, safety.
 
MSPNWA
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Aug 21, 2019 5:49 am

Sooner787 wrote:
Looks like Boeing is gearing up for return to service ...per Dominic Gates

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... o-service/


Good news, sounds like things are on track and holding to schedule, and it should be back in the sky soon. The aviation world needs it back quickly without any more delay.

oschkosch wrote:
Whether u call it brown or yellow: the fact is The Sun is pushing it back into the public eye. Yes, it it sensationalist "journalism", but the general public reads those headlines and gets scared.


Then let's rise above it and rebuke this junk. It's greatly harming the aviation world we love.
 
Andy33
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Aug 21, 2019 6:00 am

oschkosch wrote:
Whether u call it brown or yellow: the fact is The Sun is pushing it back into the public eye. Yes, it it sensationalist "journalism", but the general public reads those headlines and gets scared.


Edit: even the reputable Times says the following:

Flights for sale on ‘deathtrap’ 737s
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/flig ... -x2wk9k2rx

Not at all surprising. The Sun and the Times are under common ownership, what differs is the tone.
 
MrBretz
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Aug 21, 2019 6:12 am

I have a question. When Boeing submits their fix to the FAA, do they supply a description of the changes AND all the test cases they have run to date showing the fixes works. I presume test cases would show results of simulated and real MAXs reacting to events similar to things that caused both crashes. I can’t imagine they would supply a fix and tell the FAA to go test it. If this is how it is done, then the MAX may be back in service sooner than I imagine. The FAA would be reviewing documentation not actually independently testing the airplane. What are the steps in the process?
 
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journeyperson
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Aug 21, 2019 6:17 am

StTim wrote:
kalvado wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
We expect old ladies and old men (me) to do fairly complicated things with their car in less than 4 seconds. People die when they don't. And most of us expect them to quit driving before they cause an accident. Contrary to popular legends most people do quit driving at about the right time. Relevance - 4 seconds is quite a long time in any number of circumstances.

Car has effectively 3 controls - steering wheel and 2 pedals, and a universal bailout approach: slow down, stop, set parking brake, take a deep breath.
Plane has a few more controls (rudder, elevator, stab trim, ailerons, air brakes, flaps, thrust) and no universal bailout. Landing at nearest airport may be a complicated task (especially if the plane has control problems), and stopping mid-air is a guaranteed crash...
And even without that - for somewhat closer analogy, compare MCAS situation with Toyota unintended acceleration, where a lot of affected drivers ended up not surviving the event..

Are you American?

Most of the rest of the world drives cars with more than two pedals.

Not if they have any sense
 
WIederling
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Aug 21, 2019 6:24 am

StTim wrote:
Most of the rest of the world drives cars with more than two pedals.


Nobody else had issues with "self" acceleration either :-)
Murphy is an optimist
 
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SQ22
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Aug 21, 2019 7:01 am

May I remind you to stay on topic and to keep the cars out of the discussion, thanks.
 
snowkarl
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Aug 21, 2019 7:19 am

Revelation wrote:
Alfons wrote:
After a million posts, and a thousand of them still writing that it was the pilots‘ fault/error...

I want to ask them to find one (american if you want) pilot, who would agree to take seat in the cockpit, right after take off when a dozen of lights started to blink. If you found just one pilot honestly agreeing being ready to start in real from this situation at the driver‘s seat, because he or she feels 100% secure to be able to bring back the plane in one piece... then I might start to consider this possibility.

I don‘t think you will find one.

Seems Boeing company pilots are flying MCAS 1.0 738s on KPAE -> KSKF transcon storage flights, so they are willfully putting themselves at the risk of such.

You are being disingenuous again because you know as well as anyone that those flights will not be overcome by that issue because either they are focusing their entire flight on avoiding the circumstances in which MCAS can be activated or they're flying with the flaps in a position which will keep it from being activated at all. So a non point.

oschkosch wrote:

and on forbes the estimate is not before 2020!

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesasqui ... d4dc6c3528

Revelation wrote:
Not sure I would rely on the opinion of the air mile chaser.



But two pages ago you decided to trust an equally [under]qualified Bloomberg journalist because what he wrote suited your agenda.

Please. Argue in good faith.
 
B777LRF
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Aug 21, 2019 7:20 am

MSPNWA wrote:
Good news, sounds like things are on track and holding to schedule, and it should be back in the sky soon. The aviation world needs it back quickly without any more delay.


What on earth led you to jump to that conclusion? The rhetoric emanating from Chicago is growing ever more diluted; now they're not even talking about September anymore, but merely a date 'which will support ungrounding in Q4'.

On top of that comes the news from the international panel that they're seriously worried about the way the FAA handles certification, and that the FAA does not have the skills required to handle the ever more complex products being created.

Q4 is a pipe dream; the hiring and training of the temporary workforce alone will take longer than that but, more importantly, there are no signs that Boeing has cracked the issue, nor that they are any closer to submitting their proposals to the FAA than they were 3 months ago. And even if they were ready to submit those proposals, there's not time allocated for the NAAs to scrutinise those proposals - Boeing are seemingly working on the assumptions their proposals will be taken at face value and the NAAs are merely there to rubberstamp whatever fixes they've come up with. Anybody with just a modicum of insight will immediately see the folly in that; those NAAs (including the FAA) will go over every detail with the finest of combs, and are bound to send back some for further work.

Finally, there's a more than very good chance a large number of NAAs will refuse certification until the final reports of both the Lion Air and Ethiopian are in.

Q2 2020 is, presently, the most rosy of outlooks.
Signature. You just read one.
 
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sassiciai
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Aug 21, 2019 7:21 am

bennett123 wrote:
Two questions;

How simple is it going to be to find hundreds of technicians, particularly for a short term hire?.

Secondly, how long will it take to recruit people and complete induction.

There is a rather famous book "The Mythical Man Month" written decades ago by a software engineer from IBM. I can recommend the book, although it is a bit dated (written by a member of the IBM 360 OS development team)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Mythical_Man-Month

"The Mythical Man-Month: Essays on Software Engineering is a book on software engineering and project management by Fred Brooks first published in 1975, with subsequent editions in 1982 and 1995. Its central theme is that "adding manpower to a late software project makes it later". This idea is known as Brooks' law, and is presented along with the second-system effect and advocacy of prototyping.

Brooks' observations are based on his experiences at IBM while managing the development of OS/360. He had added more programmers to a project falling behind schedule, a decision that he would later conclude had, counter-intuitively, delayed the project even further. He also made the mistake of asserting that one project—involved in writing an ALGOL compiler—would require six months, regardless of the number of workers involved (it required longer). The tendency for managers to repeat such errors in project development led Brooks to quip that his book is called "The Bible of Software Engineering", because "everybody quotes it, some people read it, and a few people go by it".[1] The book is widely regarded as a classic on the human elements of software engineering."


A central point of the book is "...adding programmers to a late project just makes it later.." The current team members are required to stop their own efforts to complete their tasks in order to induct the new staff. This effect is not limited to software, and perhaps the people at Boeing who decided to hire this new group would be better buying the book on Amazon and reading up on whether their approach is optimal!
 
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Spiderguy252
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Aug 21, 2019 9:46 am

At what point to Boeing pause MAX production?

Surely there is an upper limit of churning out planes that can't take to the skies? Even when (if) everything is over, I don't presume carriers are going to want 20 new aircraft on property at the same time? I doubt there is such an appetite.
Vahroone
 
ArgentoSystems
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Aug 21, 2019 10:01 am

sassiciai wrote:

A central point of the book is "...adding programmers to a late project just makes it later.." The current team members are required to stop their own efforts to complete their tasks in order to induct the new staff. This effect is not limited to software, and perhaps the people at Boeing who decided to hire this new group would be better buying the book on Amazon and reading up on whether their approach is optimal!

good book,but not dly applicable. The planes need regular maintenance, and if the BA is running out of people to look after the ever-growing number of plane in storage, there is nothing else they can do but to hire more. This is not a software engineering project.
 
ArgentoSystems
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Aug 21, 2019 10:04 am

Spiderguy252 wrote:
At what point to Boeing pause MAX production?

Surely there is an upper limit of churning out planes that can't take to the skies? Even when (if) everything is over, I don't presume carriers are going to want 20 new aircraft on property at the same time? I doubt there is such an appetite.

Agreed. Airlines expansion plans are a toast. Most wanted new plane in time for summer travel. RyanAir already mentioned that will be pushing back 2020 deliveries because they can only handle certain number at a time.

However, the desert is vast, it can many many planes :)
 
uta999
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Aug 21, 2019 10:25 am

Should the FAA no longer certify new a/c types as a consequence of the MAX fiasco? They are too close to Boeing.

It might be far better for the NTSB to take over the entire certification process. Safety being much higher up on their list than the FAA.
Your computer just got better
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Aug 21, 2019 10:38 am

B777LRF wrote:
Q4 is a pipe dream; the hiring and training of the temporary workforce alone will take longer than that but, more importantly, there are no signs that Boeing has cracked the issue, nor that they are any closer to submitting their proposals to the FAA than they were 3 months ago. And even if they were ready to submit those proposals, there's not time allocated for the NAAs to scrutinise those proposals - Boeing are seemingly working on the assumptions their proposals will be taken at face value and the NAAs are merely there to rubberstamp whatever fixes they've come up with. Anybody with just a modicum of insight will immediately see the folly in that; those NAAs (including the FAA) will go over every detail with the finest of combs, and are bound to send back some for further work.

Finally, there's a more than very good chance a large number of NAAs will refuse certification until the final reports of both the Lion Air and Ethiopian are in.

So your opinion is that the FAA inspectors have gone back to DC and left Boeing alone to work on the mandated fixes, they are not involved in anyway in what is being done, no oversight, nothing.
If that is the case, then your thought process makes sense, however, I would have thought that after two fatal crashes, the grounding and the world looking in on the certification process which they have in place and the congress has not changed, they would ensure that their offices in North West and on Boeing's premises were staffed to the MAX and they were looking at everything they are authorized to look at.

I would question whether there has been a clampdown on leaks, but that would derail the thread.....
 
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Polot
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Aug 21, 2019 10:47 am

uta999 wrote:
Should the FAA no longer certify new a/c types as a consequence of the MAX fiasco? They are too close to Boeing.

It might be far better for the NTSB to take over the entire certification process. Safety being much higher up on their list than the FAA.

How do you think the NTSB would certify a plane? NTSB staff do not have the knowledge and skill base to do something like that. When investigating accidents they rely heavily on the FAA and the OEM (gasp!) for assistance.
 
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sassiciai
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Aug 21, 2019 11:57 am

ArgentoSystems wrote:
sassiciai wrote:

A central point of the book is "...adding programmers to a late project just makes it later.." The current team members are required to stop their own efforts to complete their tasks in order to induct the new staff. This effect is not limited to software, and perhaps the people at Boeing who decided to hire this new group would be better buying the book on Amazon and reading up on whether their approach is optimal!

good book,but not dly applicable. The planes need regular maintenance, and if the BA is running out of people to look after the ever-growing number of plane in storage, there is nothing else they can do but to hire more. This is not a software engineering project.


If the prime reason for hiring 100s more mechanics is that all current hands on deck are fully busy, tell me who will induct the newly hired guys, if it is not the existing staff that maintain the current (but ever expanding) fleet! Remember, this is a new aircraft, so you cant "trust" a new hire who has prior experience on earlier models or different aircraft types, he needs to be taught and supervised
 
ArgentoSystems
Posts: 314
Joined: Sun Mar 24, 2019 12:05 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Aug 21, 2019 12:15 pm

sassiciai wrote:
If the prime reason for hiring 100s more mechanics is that all current hands on deck are fully busy, tell me who will induct the newly hired guys, if it is not the existing staff that maintain the current (but ever expanding) fleet! Remember, this is a new aircraft, so you cant "trust" a new hire who has prior experience on earlier models or different aircraft types, he needs to be taught and supervised

Who said all current hands are fully busy? You. Perhaps the management have a bit foresight and started the hiring before maxing out their capacity to service airplanes. Besides, some are talking about about using the people as help for deliveries, which realistically is still few months away even in best of scenarios.
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Aug 21, 2019 12:22 pm

Well if we follow the additional trends, the A350-XX has killed the 777-8 so those folks are released, the 777-9 is delayed so those folks are also not working as efficiently as they could, the Air Force is not taking more than 3 a/c per month, and the 797 has not yet been approved for sale.
So far they have not announced another reduction in the MAX rate which after all these months and paying for parking may now be economically viable, so unless they are getting ready to sell the 797 or change the work force in the South East for quality purposes, retire off the old work force to quickly bring in a new safety culture, the odds may be good that they are making preparations for the MAX return to service. September is 10 days away, end year is 3 months away which is the end of 4Q, so....always open to additional speculation on what the new hires are for if not replacements.
 
Amiga500
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Aug 21, 2019 12:31 pm

Andy33 wrote:
Not at all surprising. The Sun and the Times are under common ownership, what differs is the tone.


You put one on the fields using a dung spreader. You put the other on the fields using a slurry tanker.

Two very similar products in a slightly different form.
 
RickNRoll
Posts: 1791
Joined: Fri Jan 06, 2012 9:30 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Aug 21, 2019 12:39 pm

sassiciai wrote:
bennett123 wrote:
Two questions;

How simple is it going to be to find hundreds of technicians, particularly for a short term hire?.

Secondly, how long will it take to recruit people and complete induction.

There is a rather famous book "The Mythical Man Month" written decades ago by a software engineer from IBM. I can recommend the book, although it is a bit dated (written by a member of the IBM 360 OS development team)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Mythical_Man-Month

"The Mythical Man-Month: Essays on Software Engineering is a book on software engineering and project management by Fred Brooks first published in 1975, with subsequent editions in 1982 and 1995. Its central theme is that "adding manpower to a late software project makes it later". This idea is known as Brooks' law, and is presented along with the second-system effect and advocacy of prototyping.

Brooks' observations are based on his experiences at IBM while managing the development of OS/360. He had added more programmers to a project falling behind schedule, a decision that he would later conclude had, counter-intuitively, delayed the project even further. He also made the mistake of asserting that one project—involved in writing an ALGOL compiler—would require six months, regardless of the number of workers involved (it required longer). The tendency for managers to repeat such errors in project development led Brooks to quip that his book is called "The Bible of Software Engineering", because "everybody quotes it, some people read it, and a few people go by it".[1] The book is widely regarded as a classic on the human elements of software engineering."


A central point of the book is "...adding programmers to a late project just makes it later.." The current team members are required to stop their own efforts to complete their tasks in order to induct the new staff. This effect is not limited to software, and perhaps the people at Boeing who decided to hire this new group would be better buying the book on Amazon and reading up on whether their approach is optimal!
They are training people up now for some time in the future. The task won't be like creating a new OS. The planes can all be serviced independently.
 
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Revelation
Posts: 21428
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Aug 21, 2019 1:06 pm

MrBretz wrote:
I have a question. When Boeing submits their fix to the FAA, do they supply a description of the changes AND all the test cases they have run to date showing the fixes works. I presume test cases would show results of simulated and real MAXs reacting to events similar to things that caused both crashes. I can’t imagine they would supply a fix and tell the FAA to go test it. If this is how it is done, then the MAX may be back in service sooner than I imagine. The FAA would be reviewing documentation not actually independently testing the airplane. What are the steps in the process?

Yes, it is the former, and we know FAA is involved in the testing as well. They were present during the tests that led to the "cosmic ray" fix, for instance. They will get a package of engineering documents that include test cases and results.

snowkarl wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Seems Boeing company pilots are flying MCAS 1.0 738s on KPAE -> KSKF transcon storage flights, so they are willfully putting themselves at the risk of such.

You are being disingenuous again because you know as well as anyone that those flights will not be overcome by that issue because either they are focusing their entire flight on avoiding the circumstances in which MCAS can be activated or they're flying with the flaps in a position which will keep it from being activated at all. So a non point.

Please tone down the attack language.

I would expect any 737 qualified pilot to "not be overcome" by MCAS 1.0 now that so much has been discussed about its triggers, symptoms and actions needed for recovery.

Are your expectations different?

Absorbing this kind of information about their aircraft and its systems is a big part of what pilots get paid to do, no?

And yes, the flights from KPAE -> KSKF were at full speed and altitude so flaps were retracted.

snowkarl wrote:
But two pages ago you decided to trust an equally [under]qualified Bloomberg journalist because what he wrote suited your agenda.

I think most people will agree that Bloomberg is a totally different animal with regard to professional journalism than the glorified blog host that Forbes has become.

Here's how Forbes's "Chief Product Officer" described its "new model":

Over the last few years, we've supplemented our full-time reporting staff with more than 1,000 knowledgeable contributors. I've written quite a bit about our curated network of passionate voices, all accountable for their own success and backed by the 96 years of trust and respect earned by the FORBES brand

Ref: https://www.forbes.com/sites/lewisdvork ... l-and-ads/

So, yeah, a glorified blog host that cashes in on the "96 years of trust and respect earned by the FORBES brand".

"Accountable for their own success" means unpaid except via clicks / impressions.

Not exactly a model for journalistic excellence, IMO.

Heck, even I could use my passionate voice and become one of their knowledgeable contributors and become accountable for my own success.

Eventually I might even earn enough money for a small cup of coffee at Dunkin' Donuts.

Reviewing the history of references to Bloomberg in this thread shows my comments in this regard starting with viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1426007&p=21589893#p21589893 are focused on the reports of FAA's stance on sim vs computer training, and your comments in viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1426007&p=21591117#p21591117 aren't even quoting anything I said, rather what others quoted from the article I posted starting with viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1426007&p=21590073#p21590073 and thus off target.

B777LRF wrote:
What on earth led you to jump to that conclusion? The rhetoric emanating from Chicago is growing ever more diluted; now they're not even talking about September anymore, but merely a date 'which will support ungrounding in Q4'.

I'm not sure what you are on about.

Just a day ago in viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1426007&p=21602361#p21601253 I quoted the Seattle Times (we still trust them, no?) quoting a Boeing spokesman as saying they estimate RTS early in Q4, the same message they've been using for the last several weeks.

B777LRF wrote:
On top of that comes the news from the international panel that they're seriously worried about the way the FAA handles certification, and that the FAA does not have the skills required to handle the ever more complex products being created.

Not really relevant to MAX, since it's already certified.

Given this is an international panel, maybe Airbus should be worried about all the grandfathering they are proposing, such as A321XLR and A350-1000ULR?

B777LRF wrote:
Q4 is a pipe dream; the hiring and training of the temporary workforce alone will take longer than that but, more importantly, there are no signs that Boeing has cracked the issue, nor that they are any closer to submitting their proposals to the FAA than they were 3 months ago. And even if they were ready to submit those proposals, there's not time allocated for the NAAs to scrutinise those proposals - Boeing are seemingly working on the assumptions their proposals will be taken at face value and the NAAs are merely there to rubberstamp whatever fixes they've come up with. Anybody with just a modicum of insight will immediately see the folly in that; those NAAs (including the FAA) will go over every detail with the finest of combs, and are bound to send back some for further work.

RTS in early Q4 doesn't mean every plane in every regulatory jurisdiction will RTS in early Q4, but we all understand this already, no?

What more signs do you need that "Boeing has cracked the issue" other than controlled leaks appearing in AvWeek and Seatle Times on the same day about the "cosmic ray" issue along with the RTS in early Q4 message shortly thereafter?

B777LRF wrote:
Finally, there's a more than very good chance a large number of NAAs will refuse certification until the final reports of both the Lion Air and Ethiopian are in.

That falls in to the "events beyond our control" bucket.

FAA is the certifying authority for 737, all Boeing can do is work with FAA to get the changes accepted, and answer any/all questions from international regulators.

B777LRF wrote:
Q2 2020 is, presently, the most rosy of outlooks.

For what, exactly? The last regulator holding out to approve the flight of the last grounded 737?

Boeing will get a small victory by 737 RTS in Q4.

Even staunch loyalists such as WN will not be flying them in mainline service till many weeks later, but Boeing will be able to say they are on the road to recovery.

I expect Boeing will draw a line under the tragedy by firing the CEO some time around mid year 2020.
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