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Asturias
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Aug 22, 2019 11:02 am

wingman wrote:
One small bit of tragic irony will be firing a CEO welcomed by many for his engineering background due to an epic engineering cock up. Sad but truly deserved.


That is a very irrational and emotional reaction. The current CEO made no decisions on the 737-MAX. That's all on Jim McNearney. All of it.

The current CEO can be blamed for questionable communication, looking like a deer in the headlights and having problems serving two masters - i.e. profit and engineering.

He can be easily replaced with a new Jim McNearney who has no problems picking a master and no qualms with using the latest MBA philosophies to create commercial airplanes.

My point it, firing the current Boeing CEO for the 737 MAX debacle is a pointless exercise, based on nothing but emotions and irrational thought. I'd love to be able to blame the man - but I can't. This isn't his fault, and firing him is as productive as kicking a wall. Emotional and irrational.
Tonight we fly
 
asdf
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Aug 22, 2019 11:29 am

planecane wrote:
Once it activates, it provides the necessary force increase for those conditions. Then, once the conditions have been exited, it can activate again.
.

„provides the nessessary force increase“ means it trims the nose down
„once the conditions have been exited, it can activate again“ means it does the trim down every few seconds
well
we had that on MCAS 1.0
very effectiv on stick feeling
but with pretty ugly side effects .....

planecane wrote:
Where on earth are you pulling these situations from where MCAS is needed? You use "TCAS, last minute change of course, depressurizings, engine failure" as examples. I don't think that it is standard procedure to approach a stall under any of these situations. I honestly don't think you understand what angle of attack means.


this are the situation where the load on the stick is to low for certification of the plane
sharp turns as one example
this is not my idea, this is what boeing always told

there are two solutions in MCAS 2.0

solution one:
MCAS activate only one time per situation
so a MCAS problem can no longer trim a plane into the ground
but them you left the flightcrew with a plane with questionable flight attitudes
that is wgat i described above

solution two:
MCAS 2.0, not really redundant, only software polished up a little bit has authority over the trim
well, in case of failure ...
we know how it ends
i can not imagine that they really „fix“ it that way

btw:
i know what the AoA means
and no, i didnt need to google it before ...
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Aug 22, 2019 11:47 am

asdf wrote:
planecane wrote:
Once it activates, it provides the necessary force increase for those conditions. Then, once the conditions have been exited, it can activate again.
.

„provides the nessessary force increase“ means it trims the nose down
„once the conditions have been exited, it can activate again“ means it does the trim down every few seconds
well
we had that on MCAS 1.0
very effectiv on stick feeling
but with pretty ugly side effects .....

Sure, if the AOA is yo-yoing between normal and MCAS necessary conditions every few seconds. Highly, highly unlikely (and suggests something so extremely serious is happening that I’m not sure I would trust the automation on any aircraft in that situation) but there are also now limitations on the system to prevent it from trimming the aircraft to such an extent that pilots can’t recover the aircraft.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Aug 22, 2019 12:09 pm

MrBretz wrote:
asdf said "if they really unground the MAX only with some minor software changes ...... statistics says that we will see the next crash within 18 month ..."

You can make any statement you want but you don't offer an iota of statistical(it is mathematical, you know) proof. Why not say 18 hours, weeks, years, etc. ??? Show me how you got your number. Throw in some standard deviations or other apropos terms like normal distribution, etc. and I might listen.

The problem that caused the crash was poorly written software. The problem it was implemented to correct was NOT a fundamentally dangerous problem, and would not have led to a crash by itself. So why would a strictly software fix to a strictly software problem lead to another crash? Your logic escapes me.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
XRAYretired
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Aug 22, 2019 12:18 pm

SEPilot wrote:
MrBretz wrote:
asdf said "if they really unground the MAX only with some minor software changes ...... statistics says that we will see the next crash within 18 month ..."

You can make any statement you want but you don't offer an iota of statistical(it is mathematical, you know) proof. Why not say 18 hours, weeks, years, etc. ??? Show me how you got your number. Throw in some standard deviations or other apropos terms like normal distribution, etc. and I might listen.

The problem that caused the crash was poorly written software. The problem it was implemented to correct was NOT a fundamentally dangerous problem, and would not have led to a crash by itself. So why would a strictly software fix to a strictly software problem lead to another crash? Your logic escapes me.

Whilst MrBretz post is not supported. MCAS V1.0 was the result of incompetent System Design and SSA - not a software implementation problem.

Ray
 
uta999
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Aug 22, 2019 12:20 pm

SEPilot wrote:
MrBretz wrote:
asdf said "if they really unground the MAX only with some minor software changes ...... statistics says that we will see the next crash within 18 month ..."

You can make any statement you want but you don't offer an iota of statistical(it is mathematical, you know) proof. Why not say 18 hours, weeks, years, etc. ??? Show me how you got your number. Throw in some standard deviations or other apropos terms like normal distribution, etc. and I might listen.

The problem that caused the crash was poorly written software. The problem it was implemented to correct was NOT a fundamentally dangerous problem, and would not have led to a crash by itself. So why would a strictly software fix to a strictly software problem lead to another crash? Your logic escapes me.


Because Boeing rushed out an unstable, non-FBW MAX without thinking anything through, cut corners and costs, hid new 'features' and claimed it was an NG equivalent both training and flying wise. Turns out it was not. They didn't even bother creating a MAX sim. What else have they hidden and failed to disclose. We won't know till the next thread, when something happens.
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SteelChair
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Aug 22, 2019 12:25 pm

What is the latest plan for implementation of a fix?

Does anyone know when deliveries will commence?

Are they still building 40+/month?
 
planecane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Aug 22, 2019 12:38 pm

asdf wrote:
planecane wrote:
Once it activates, it provides the necessary force increase for those conditions. Then, once the conditions have been exited, it can activate again.
.

„provides the nessessary force increase“ means it trims the nose down
„once the conditions have been exited, it can activate again“ means it does the trim down every few seconds
well
we had that on MCAS 1.0
very effectiv on stick feeling
but with pretty ugly side effects .....

planecane wrote:
Where on earth are you pulling these situations from where MCAS is needed? You use "TCAS, last minute change of course, depressurizings, engine failure" as examples. I don't think that it is standard procedure to approach a stall under any of these situations. I honestly don't think you understand what angle of attack means.


this are the situation where the load on the stick is to low for certification of the plane
sharp turns as one example
this is not my idea, this is what boeing always told

there are two solutions in MCAS 2.0

solution one:
MCAS activate only one time per situation
so a MCAS problem can no longer trim a plane into the ground
but them you left the flightcrew with a plane with questionable flight attitudes
that is wgat i described above

solution two:
MCAS 2.0, not really redundant, only software polished up a little bit has authority over the trim
well, in case of failure ...
we know how it ends
i can not imagine that they really „fix“ it that way

btw:
i know what the AoA means
and no, i didnt need to google it before ...


Boeing has not said that those situations require MCAS to increase the stick forces. They have stated that it is needed during "extreme maneuvers." From everything that has been stated about the need for MCAS, it is needed in part of the flight envelope that is approaching a stall. The maneuvers you used as examples will not normally cause the pilot to approach a stall.

Activating once per event will increase the stick force for the entire time the trigger AoA is exceeded. It doesn't trim and then return the trim to where it was previously while still in the high AoA condition. If your perception of what the single activation means was correct, with MCAS 2.0, the MAX would not be able to pass the wind-up turn test and would not be certifiable.

Angle of attack and pitch attitude are not the same thing. For example, during launch, the Space Shuttle orbiter was at a low angle of attack even while the launch trajectory was nearly vertical. The Challenger broke apart after the external tank disintegrated because it went into a high AoA state which caused aerodynamic forces to exceed the structural capabilities.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Aug 22, 2019 1:24 pm

planecane wrote:
Boeing has not said that those situations require MCAS to increase the stick forces. They have stated that it is needed during "extreme maneuvers." From everything that has been stated about the need for MCAS, it is needed in part of the flight envelope that is approaching a stall. The maneuvers you used as examples will not normally cause the pilot to approach a stall.


well
i remembered it the other way
its impossible to find it in thousands of thousands of postings to MCAS

and it doesnt change my argument if you change my „sharp turns“ to „extreme maneuvers."
both are not uncommon
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Aug 22, 2019 1:36 pm

SteelChair wrote:
What is the latest plan for implementation of a fix?

The story hasn't changed for weeks now, and we have a confirmation / reiteration that is only two days old:

Boeing reiterated Tuesday that it plans to submit a final certification package to the FAA “once we have satisfied all of their requirements, which we currently estimate will occur on a timeframe to support an early fourth-quarter return to service.”

The finalized submission to the FAA is expected next month, and clearance to fly again could come within a month or so of that. Some MAXs could return to service within weeks of that clearance.

Ref: https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... o-service/

Note the quotation marks and the well known source.

SteelChair wrote:
Does anyone know when deliveries will commence?

No.

SteelChair wrote:
Are they still building 40+/month?

We've had no reports of a decision to change the rate, but weeks ago we had a warning from the Boeing CEO that they could decide to reduce the rate or even stop if the grounding stretches into next year.

asdf wrote:
and it doesnt change my argument if you change my „sharp turns“ to „extreme maneuvers."
both are not uncommon

"Sharp turn" does not correlate to "onset of stall" and "onset of stall" is definitely uncommon in commercial aviation.

If you can do so, get yourself to a smaller airport and hire a small plane and a rated instructor and ask for some demonstrations of "onset of stall".

There's a few different scenarios but they can easily be demonstrated by a rated instructor in a short amount of time.

I think that would provide a good understanding of why "sharp turn" and "onset of stall" are different just as "extreme maneuver" and "onset of stall" are different.
Last edited by Revelation on Thu Aug 22, 2019 1:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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planecane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Aug 22, 2019 1:43 pm

asdf wrote:
planecane wrote:
Boeing has not said that those situations require MCAS to increase the stick forces. They have stated that it is needed during "extreme maneuvers." From everything that has been stated about the need for MCAS, it is needed in part of the flight envelope that is approaching a stall. The maneuvers you used as examples will not normally cause the pilot to approach a stall.


well
i remembered it the other way
its impossible to find it in thousands of thousands of postings to MCAS

and it doesnt change my argument if you change my „sharp turns“ to „extreme maneuvers."
both are not uncommon


If an "extreme maneuver" is common that would contradict Boeing's suggestion that it is only needed in rare instances. What you define as an extreme maneuver and what is actually an extreme maneuver from an aerodynamic standpoint can be two very different things (and most likely are).

Even if these extreme maneuvers were performed 50 times per flight, it would only be an issue when MCAS is disabled by an AoA disagree.
 
oschkosch
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Aug 22, 2019 2:47 pm

planecane wrote:
You are severely misunderstanding MCAS only activating once. It isn't once per flight, it is once per event. From the Boeing official statement:

If MCAS is activated in non-normal conditions, it will only provide one input for each elevated AOA event.


Once it activates, it provides the necessary force increase for those conditions. Then, once the conditions have been exited, it can activate again.

I don't know what test pilot you are talking about that crashed in a simulator. It doesn't really matter because MCAS 2.0 will not be able to do what MCAS 1.0 did. Even if BOTH AoA sensors fail within 5.5 degrees of each other and are both above the trigger AoA for MCAS, the authority limits now placed on MCAS will ensure that the pilots can control the aircraft, even if they don't counteract MCAS.

Where on earth are you pulling these situations from where MCAS is needed? You use "TCAS, last minute change of course, depressurizings, engine failure" as examples. I don't think that it is standard procedure to approach a stall under any of these situations. I honestly don't think you understand what angle of attack means.



Hey Planecane, let me officially welcome you back to this thread. :D

I understood that the 2 main issues with Mcas were
1. that Boeing severely changed the angle of of trimming the stabilizer downwards (to a greater degree than FAA was aware of)
2. that Mcas repeated this action over and over again after a 5 second pause.
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kalvado
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Aug 22, 2019 2:51 pm

planecane wrote:
asdf wrote:
planecane wrote:
Boeing has not said that those situations require MCAS to increase the stick forces. They have stated that it is needed during "extreme maneuvers." From everything that has been stated about the need for MCAS, it is needed in part of the flight envelope that is approaching a stall. The maneuvers you used as examples will not normally cause the pilot to approach a stall.


well
i remembered it the other way
its impossible to find it in thousands of thousands of postings to MCAS

and it doesnt change my argument if you change my „sharp turns“ to „extreme maneuvers."
both are not uncommon


If an "extreme maneuver" is common that would contradict Boeing's suggestion that it is only needed in rare instances. What you define as an extreme maneuver and what is actually an extreme maneuver from an aerodynamic standpoint can be two very different things (and most likely are).

Even if these extreme maneuvers were performed 50 times per flight, it would only be an issue when MCAS is disabled by an AoA disagree.

I don't think any serious information on "extreme maneuvers " was published. It can easily be once in a lifetime situation, but it can also be multiple events during the situation.
A wild example: a while ago there was an event in JFK, I believe, when 2 planes had to go around almost at the same time. As there was only one go-around corridor, second plane had nowhere to go, ended up in the middle of LGA flow. (my memory may be vague about details, someone may correct me with proper thread reference). I can envision some planes having to do more than one "extreme avoidance maneuver" in a row while this was unfolding.
 
BEG2IAH
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Aug 22, 2019 2:55 pm

Reading this thread makes me a little depressed, so I wanted to ask a question about, hopefully, a brighter future when MAX's are going to start flying again. Having in mind how many MAX's are built, how long will it take to make modifications on one aircraft? If it's a software-only fix, it shouldn't take too long, but if there are things that need to be modified in the cockpit, like switches and cables, what's your wildest guess what it would take? I can't wait to see all these birds flying again.
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planecane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Aug 22, 2019 3:15 pm

oschkosch wrote:
planecane wrote:
You are severely misunderstanding MCAS only activating once. It isn't once per flight, it is once per event. From the Boeing official statement:

If MCAS is activated in non-normal conditions, it will only provide one input for each elevated AOA event.


Once it activates, it provides the necessary force increase for those conditions. Then, once the conditions have been exited, it can activate again.

I don't know what test pilot you are talking about that crashed in a simulator. It doesn't really matter because MCAS 2.0 will not be able to do what MCAS 1.0 did. Even if BOTH AoA sensors fail within 5.5 degrees of each other and are both above the trigger AoA for MCAS, the authority limits now placed on MCAS will ensure that the pilots can control the aircraft, even if they don't counteract MCAS.

Where on earth are you pulling these situations from where MCAS is needed? You use "TCAS, last minute change of course, depressurizings, engine failure" as examples. I don't think that it is standard procedure to approach a stall under any of these situations. I honestly don't think you understand what angle of attack means.



Hey Planecane, let me officially welcome you back to this thread. :D

I understood that the 2 main issues with Mcas were
1. that Boeing severely changed the angle of of trimming the stabilizer downwards (to a greater degree than FAA was aware of)
2. that Mcas repeated this action over and over again after a 5 second pause.


Thanks! I couldn't find anything better to do with my free time. :-)
I have decided that I'm only going to discuss the future and known facts/science and not argue about past events!

The issue with #1 was not so much giving MCAS more authority, it was not limiting the authority based upon airspeed. The reason for the increased authority is so it could work at low speed. Therefore, there should have been authority limits (based off of change from trim prior to activation) for a given airspeed. Reading between the lines of Boeing's official statement, this is being done on MCAS 2.0 because otherwise they couldn't guarantee elevator authority at all times, which they do in their statement on the Boeing website.

For #2, that caused the issue of MCAS having unlimited authority because it could input 2.5 units nose down on each activation. Since it was allowed to pause and then activate again without ever exiting the high AoA condition, it could apply the full authority multiple times until the trim was full nose down and then it could do it again after the pilot trimmed nose up.
 
planecane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Aug 22, 2019 3:25 pm

kalvado wrote:
planecane wrote:
asdf wrote:

well
i remembered it the other way
its impossible to find it in thousands of thousands of postings to MCAS

and it doesnt change my argument if you change my „sharp turns“ to „extreme maneuvers."
both are not uncommon


If an "extreme maneuver" is common that would contradict Boeing's suggestion that it is only needed in rare instances. What you define as an extreme maneuver and what is actually an extreme maneuver from an aerodynamic standpoint can be two very different things (and most likely are).

Even if these extreme maneuvers were performed 50 times per flight, it would only be an issue when MCAS is disabled by an AoA disagree.

I don't think any serious information on "extreme maneuvers " was published. It can easily be once in a lifetime situation, but it can also be multiple events during the situation.
A wild example: a while ago there was an event in JFK, I believe, when 2 planes had to go around almost at the same time. As there was only one go-around corridor, second plane had nowhere to go, ended up in the middle of LGA flow. (my memory may be vague about details, someone may correct me with proper thread reference). I can envision some planes having to do more than one "extreme avoidance maneuver" in a row while this was unfolding.


Even if it happens often or is multiple times within one event, what difference does it make? If it is during the same event, the trim has been adjusted to increase the required stick force.

Assuming MCAS truly only activates in the approach to stall region of the flight envelope, I can't imagine that this region of the envelope is entered into even during avoidance maneuvers very often. Are there any incident statistics that show how many times a 737NG has had a valid stick shaker activation in the entire service history of the model? It would seem that stick shaker would be a prerequisite for MCAS (although without having a graph of the AoA threshold for each vs. airspeed I don't know for sure).
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Aug 22, 2019 4:09 pm

kalvado wrote:
I don't think any serious information on "extreme maneuvers " was published. It can easily be once in a lifetime situation, but it can also be multiple events during the situation.
A wild example: a while ago there was an event in JFK, I believe, when 2 planes had to go around almost at the same time. As there was only one go-around corridor, second plane had nowhere to go, ended up in the middle of LGA flow. (my memory may be vague about details, someone may correct me with proper thread reference). I can envision some planes having to do more than one "extreme avoidance maneuver" in a row while this was unfolding.

In this case the MAX with the fixes should act like NG: if pilot's "extreme maneuver" pushes the flight envelope near the stall they will get stick shaker, and only if they proceed onward towards the stall will MCAS be a factor at all.

BEG2IAH wrote:
Reading this thread makes me a little depressed, so I wanted to ask a question about, hopefully, a brighter future when MAX's are going to start flying again. Having in mind how many MAX's are built, how long will it take to make modifications on one aircraft? If it's a software-only fix, it shouldn't take too long, but if there are things that need to be modified in the cockpit, like switches and cables, what's your wildest guess what it would take? I can't wait to see all these birds flying again.

Wild guesses?

MAX grounding started early March, let's say ungrounding is early Q4 thus early November (1/3rd through Q4), so 6 months and ~40 planes per month built -> ~240 planes to "unground".

So far, fix is thought to be mostly software and ~1 hour to install, but the problem is planes sitting for ~6 months need maintenance and a couple test flights each.

These things need trained pilots and technicians to accomplish.

As per Seattle Times, Boeing is looking to temporarily hire "hundreds" of such and base them at Moses Lake, WA.
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sgrow787
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Aug 22, 2019 4:44 pm

smithbs wrote:
A very nice summary of MAX's technical issues:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/428660 ... neers-view

Can we make this required reading before posting?  :)


From a brief cursory reading, and Im not a mechanical or aeronautical engineer, from a top level perspective:

(1)The timing of the piece being right before Boeings supposedly Sept fix release is suspect

(2) the article goes in depth on the complex subject of aircraft aerodynamic stability, then shows how MCAS with or without doesnt really affect stability (implying the reason for Boeings safety assessment as major rather than hazardous), then it characterizes Boeings MCAS design failure as a "mistake", but then drops short on the insufficient failure mode analysis other than to say the reasons are "unknown" (although he does provide a link to the Seattle Times article..

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-ne ... afeguards/

).

So Bechai's article seems pro Boeing in that the MCAS design shortfall was a bad engineering mistake rather than the more nefarious likelihood of Boeing cutting corners intentionally to meet time to market deadline.

Aircraft makers dont do complex risk assessment to decide whether they are allowed to use two sensor data redundancy for sensors that are already installed and available.

The Seattle Times article includes statements from both named and anonymous sources saying Boeing concealed (failed to forward to) their FMA analysis from the FAA.

Two sensors are on the Max.  MCAS was their ticket to the LEAP success. 
There's got to be a better reason.  And if its because they realised the FCC architecture wasnt capable of handling the additional sensor data redundancy, and a redesign would delay time to market, thereby destroying the business case, well its criminal since they chose to risk lives rather than lose orders.
Just one sensor,
Oh just one se-en-sor,
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Ooh ooh oo-ooh
Oo-oo-ooh.
 
bob75013
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Aug 22, 2019 4:58 pm

Boeing is sure taking actions that indicate that it thinks the grounding order will be lifted shortly.

1) Yesterday it was the announcment that it will hire 200 temp techs to get the parked/recent builds ready to fly.

2) Today the announcment that it will increase Max production rates to 52/month in February.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusiv ... 28271.html
 
MrBretz
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Aug 22, 2019 5:41 pm

XRAYretired wrote:
SEPilot wrote:
MrBretz wrote:
asdf said "if they really unground the MAX only with some minor software changes ...... statistics says that we will see the next crash within 18 month ..."

You can make any statement you want but you don't offer an iota of statistical(it is mathematical, you know) proof. Why not say 18 hours, weeks, years, etc. ??? Show me how you got your number. Throw in some standard deviations or other apropos terms like normal distribution, etc. and I might listen.

The problem that caused the crash was poorly written software. The problem it was implemented to correct was NOT a fundamentally dangerous problem, and would not have led to a crash by itself. So why would a strictly software fix to a strictly software problem lead to another crash? Your logic escapes me.

Whilst MrBretz post is not supported. MCAS V1.0 was the result of incompetent System Design and SSA - not a software implementation problem.

Ray


Ray, I was quoting asdf. I think you meant his post was not supported. He eventually said his statistic was his estimate.
 
XRAYretired
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Aug 22, 2019 5:53 pm

MrBretz wrote:
XRAYretired wrote:
SEPilot wrote:
The problem that caused the crash was poorly written software. The problem it was implemented to correct was NOT a fundamentally dangerous problem, and would not have led to a crash by itself. So why would a strictly software fix to a strictly software problem lead to another crash? Your logic escapes me.

Whilst MrBretz post is not supported. MCAS V1.0 was the result of incompetent System Design and SSA - not a software implementation problem.

Ray


Ray, I was quoting asdf. I think you meant his post was not supported. He eventually said his statistic was his estimate.

Profound apologies. My error.

Ray
 
XRAYretired
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Aug 22, 2019 6:20 pm

A 'Deep dep dive' from Peter Lemme.
<https://www.satcom.guru/2019/08/connecting-dots-from-command-to-action.html>

These paras have 'new' information (at least new to me).

'MCAS is hosted in the Flight Control Computer (FCC). There are two FCCs on the airplane. Each FCC has both a command processor and a monitor processor. For Speed Trim Commands, the monitor processor compares calculations with the command processor and will trigger SPEED TRIM FAIL if they disagree. The monitor processor does not have the ability to stop a false Speed Trim Command, but the alert will aid in pilot awareness and response.

For MCAS, there is no pilot alert for the monitor to trigger. It is not clear if there is an MCAS monitor processor function at all. MCAS was designed single-thread, with a hot-spare; the off-side FCC can provide MCAS commands if the on-side FCC fails.'

The former seems to explain SEPED TRIM FAIL and that it provides some protection from erroneous operation, but not much and that appear not to be afforded to MCAS V1.0 at all. We may be able to assume a similar architecture exists for MACH TRIM FAIL as well.

The second paragraph indicates that there was some dual channel architecture involved with MCAS V1.0 (assumedly using the cross channel data link!). If correct, I would assume that a protection would be operative upon cross channel disagreement, but would guess this must have been limited. The implication of "hot spare" is that if the off-side channel would command MCAS active if the on-side MCAS was showing incapable?

The protections given would seem only to relate to MCAS availability on required condition and not erroneous activation.

Together, they confirm that MCAS architecture was nothing like STS.

Ray
 
oschkosch
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Aug 22, 2019 6:23 pm

So I have some questions on the hiring spree.

1. Why are people for mechanical work being searched and not software engineers?
2. How likely is Boeing to find qualified people in a short time span?

Could it be that this is being interpreted by many as a sign of return to service, when Boeing is actually looking only for people to maintan an ever growing fleet of permanently parked planes? And with no software engineers being searched, if it were about getting the max parking lots cleared after grounding, wouldn't they need software engineers since they need a software update? Or does it lead us to the assumption that hardware modifications may be required?

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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Aug 22, 2019 6:30 pm

 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Aug 22, 2019 6:40 pm

sgrow787 wrote:
So Bechai's article seems pro Boeing in that the MCAS design shortfall was a bad engineering mistake rather than the more nefarious likelihood of Boeing cutting corners intentionally to meet time to market deadline.

Aircraft makers dont do complex risk assessment to decide whether they are allowed to use two sensor data redundancy for sensors that are already installed and available.

The Seattle Times article includes statements from both named and anonymous sources saying Boeing concealed (failed to forward to) their FMA analysis from the FAA.

Two sensors are on the Max.  MCAS was their ticket to the LEAP success. 
There's got to be a better reason.  And if its because they realised the FCC architecture wasnt capable of handling the additional sensor data redundancy, and a redesign would delay time to market, thereby destroying the business case, well its criminal since they chose to risk lives rather than lose orders.

IMO at the end of the day it is bad engineering to let management/marketing pressure drive you to produce such a questionable design and implementation as was produced for MCAS 1.0.

In that situation it is the engineer's job to push back.

I should know, I've done so (even in a case where human life was not at risk), and have the career damage to show for it.

And while your explanation is plausible and supported by lots of anecdotal evidence, I don't think we have "smoking gun" evidence to support criminal charges.

We need more than "there's got to be a better reason".

Maybe FBI/DoJ will find such, but so far, none has been made public.

oschkosch wrote:
Why are people for mechanical work being searched and not software engineers?

Presumably because the software engineering largely is already done, using in-house resources, thus the RTS early in Q4.

Wouldn't they need software engineers since they need a software update?

You don't need a software engineer to install software.
Last edited by Revelation on Thu Aug 22, 2019 6:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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planecane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Aug 22, 2019 6:43 pm

oschkosch wrote:
So I have some questions on the hiring spree.

1. Why are people for mechanical work being searched and not software engineers?
2. How likely is Boeing to find qualified people in a short time span?

Could it be that this is being interpreted by many as a sign of return to service, when Boeing is actually looking only for people to maintan an ever growing fleet of permanently parked planes? And with no software engineers being searched, if it were about getting the max parking lots cleared after grounding, wouldn't they need software engineers since they need a software update? Or does it lead us to the assumption that hardware modifications may be required?

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It doesn't take a software engineer to upgrade the software on an aircraft. From one of the job listings:

Boeing is seeking Aviation Maintenance Technician and Inspectors to perform production installations, maintenance, preventative maintenance, alterations and quality assurance on aircraft structure, systems and sub-systems, including electrical and avionics on standard or experimental certificated aircraft.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Aug 22, 2019 6:48 pm

pabloeing wrote:

And 57/month in June 2020:

Two persons familiar with Boeing’s production plans, who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity, said Boeing told suppliers it will increase production from 42 to 47 single-aisle aircraft per month in October, jibing with its guidance to investors on when it expects to win regulatory approval. It would then increase from 47 aircraft to the pre-crash rate of 52 aircraft per month in February 2020, the people, and a third person familiar with the plans, said. Boeing then would hit a record stride of 57 single-aisle jets per month in June 2020, two of the people said.
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smithbs
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Aug 22, 2019 6:57 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
Wonkish article, also longish. Recommend reading. Perhaps one of our more techie posters could provide a short review on this forum.


In the long comments section of the article, the author reacts to a similar comment about the long length of the story. The basic reply: This is a complicated issue and requires time and study to understand it.

sgrow787 wrote:
(1)The timing of the piece being right before Boeings supposedly Sept fix release is suspect

It appears that the author worked on the article for a long time and only now put it out, when he had a fuller portrait of the story. For that I commend him.
 
MrBretz
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Aug 22, 2019 7:00 pm

oschkosch wrote:
So I have some questions on the hiring spree.

1. Why are people for mechanical work being searched and not software engineers?
2. How likely is Boeing to find qualified people in a short time span?

Could it be that this is being interpreted by many as a sign of r/eturn to service, when Boeing is actually looking only for people to maintan an ever growing fleet of permanently parked planes? And with no software engineers being searched, if it were about getting the max parking lots cleared after grounding, wouldn't they need software engineers since they need a software update? Or does it lead us to the assumption that hardware modifications may be required?

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You left out the most important: why are they not seeking out high level engineering management and corporate level management to replace those who let this poor design happen. BTW, I assume they already replaced the marketing person who came up with “making a safe plane safer”.
Last edited by MrBretz on Thu Aug 22, 2019 7:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
oschkosch
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Aug 22, 2019 7:01 pm

Revelation wrote:
pabloeing wrote:

And 57/month in June 2020:

Two persons familiar with Boeing’s production plans, who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity, said Boeing told suppliers it will increase production from 42 to 47 single-aisle aircraft per month in October, jibing with its guidance to investors on when it expects to win regulatory approval. It would then increase from 47 aircraft to the pre-crash rate of 52 aircraft per month in February 2020, the people, and a third person familiar with the plans, said. Boeing then would hit a record stride of 57 single-aisle jets per month in June 2020, two of the people said.
read the article! It is still a "maybe"!



One of the people expressed skepticism over the timing given the intense scrutiny from regulators that grounded the 737 MAX after deadly crashes killed nearly 350 people in Ethiopia and Indonesia in the span of five months.
There is no guarantee when regulators will clear the 737 MAX to fly again, and Boeing Chief Executive Dennis Muilenburg told analysts last month that Boeing would consider further 737 output cuts or potentially suspending production if the grounding dragged on.


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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Aug 22, 2019 7:11 pm

oschkosch wrote:
need the article. It is still maybe!

Well, yes, my quote says "Two persons familiar with Boeing’s production plans, who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity" so the uncertainty factor is there for everyone to evaluate.

I will point out that such a time line is consistent with the return to service date of early Q4 that has been publicly stated by Boeing's CEO yet seems to be challenging for some to accept.

Once the ungrounding happens the planes rolling off the FAL can be delivered to customers as soon as they are willing to take them, and the grounded planes can be delivered as workloads permit.
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planecane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Aug 22, 2019 7:15 pm

MrBretz wrote:
oschkosch wrote:
So I have some questions on the hiring spree.

1. Why are people for mechanical work being searched and not software engineers?
2. How likely is Boeing to find qualified people in a short time span?

Could it be that this is being interpreted by many as a sign of r/eturn to service, when Boeing is actually looking only for people to maintan an ever growing fleet of permanently parked planes? And with no software engineers being searched, if it were about getting the max parking lots cleared after grounding, wouldn't they need software engineers since they need a software update? Or does it lead us to the assumption that hardware modifications may be required?

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You left out the most important: why are they not seeking out high level engineering management and corporate level management to replace those who let this poor design happen. BTW, I assume they already replaced the marketing person who came up with “making a safe plane safer”.


At least for high level corporate management, the media won't pick up on it from job listings. Corporate head hunters will recruit those or internally they will look for people to promote. You won't see a "Boeing is looking for a dedicated Chief Executive Officer" listed under jobs available in Chicago!
 
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InsideMan
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Aug 22, 2019 7:30 pm

bob75013 wrote:
Boeing is sure taking actions that indicate that it thinks the grounding order will be lifted shortly.

1) Yesterday it was the announcment that it will hire 200 temp techs to get the parked/recent builds ready to fly.

2) Today the announcment that it will increase Max production rates to 52/month in February.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusiv ... 28271.html


It's not like they will be able to hire these guys over night. Will take a few weeks at least to fill all positions.

February is still quite far away. All this tells us, that they think by February the grounding will be lifted.
 
lamonjerem
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Aug 22, 2019 7:56 pm

Hi,
I just saw an Air Canada 737 Max 8 take off from CYVO en route to CYYB. Anyone know anything on that?

https://www.flightradar24.com/ACA2354/21cd0064
 
windian425
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Aug 22, 2019 7:59 pm

Can't believe that Boeing is making these plans public without any definitive timeline from the FAA. If I was the FAA I would not be pleased..
 
majano
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Aug 22, 2019 8:03 pm

Revelation wrote:
oschkosch wrote:
need the article. It is still maybe!

Well, yes, my quote says "Two persons familiar with Boeing’s production plans, who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity" so the uncertainty factor is there for everyone to evaluate.

I will point out that such a time line is consistent with the return to service date of early Q4 that has been publicly stated by Boeing's CEO yet seems to be challenging for some to accept.
.

Are you saying that everybody must accept everything Muilenburg states in public just because he is the Boeing CEO? No applying one's mind, nothing? Of course you can choose to gobble it all up, but don't expect everybody else to do likewise in sympathy with you.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Aug 22, 2019 8:10 pm

majano wrote:
Revelation wrote:
oschkosch wrote:
need the article. It is still maybe!

Well, yes, my quote says "Two persons familiar with Boeing’s production plans, who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity" so the uncertainty factor is there for everyone to evaluate.

I will point out that such a time line is consistent with the return to service date of early Q4 that has been publicly stated by Boeing's CEO yet seems to be challenging for some to accept.
.

Are you saying that everybody must accept everything Muilenberg states in public just because he is the Boeing CEO? No applying one's mind, nothing? Of course you can choose to gobble it all up, but don't expect everybody else to do so in sympathy with you.

Wow, what a straw man argument.

It's 100% up to you to read things and decide what they mean to you.

I have no expectation of anyone doing anything but that.

I've never wrote anything like you are suggesting.
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Aug 22, 2019 8:16 pm

Reuters: FAA plans to test Boeing MAX software on less-experienced pilots: sources gives some insights into the testing process that a few here have suggested has been lacking.

The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration plans to test next month how pilots with around one year of experience flying Boeing 737 jets handle new software on the MAX model, four sources with knowledge of the matter said.

The tests indicate the FAA is making progress in the re-approval process of the MAX for commercial flight.

And:

As part of its own testing process Boeing has invited senior U.S. airline pilots to experiment with the software fix and use simulators to run scenarios similar to the ones that led to the two crashes. But the FAA wants to observe relatively inexperienced 737 pilots, the sources said on condition of anonymity because the tests are confidential.

To do so, the FAA asked Southwest Airlines (LUV.N), American Airlines (AAL.O) and United Airlines (UAL.O) - the three U.S. carriers that operate the MAX - to provide the names of newer 737 line pilots who have flown the MAX at least once, they said.

The article goes on to speculate on the kinds of tests they will be asked to perform.

The "cosmic ray" scenario was mentioned.

One source said the test was supposed to be conducted during the first week of September but has been pushed back to the middle of the month.

Suggests to me the FAA will have its hands on the "new software" in early September.
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OEMInsider
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Aug 22, 2019 8:24 pm

Revelation wrote:
pabloeing wrote:

And 57/month in June 2020:

Two persons familiar with Boeing’s production plans, who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity, said Boeing told suppliers it will increase production from 42 to 47 single-aisle aircraft per month in October, jibing with its guidance to investors on when it expects to win regulatory approval. It would then increase from 47 aircraft to the pre-crash rate of 52 aircraft per month in February 2020, the people, and a third person familiar with the plans, said. Boeing then would hit a record stride of 57 single-aisle jets per month in June 2020, two of the people said.


Interesting. So Boeing were originally going to go to rate 57 during (I think) June/July 2019. With this info we can estimate how many aircraft they will miss out on due to the lowered production rate:

April 2019 to Sep 2019 - 52 (without grounding) - 42 (with grounding)
July 2019 to Sep 2019 - 57 (w/o grounding) - 42 (w/ grounding)
Oct 2019 to Jan 2020 - 57 (w/o grounding) - 47 (w/ grounding)
Feb 2020 to May 2020 - 57 (w/o grounding) - 52 (w/ grounding)
Jun 2020 onwards - 57 in both cases.

This adds up to ~140 aircraft. Assuming they sell for 60% of list prices, that's $10.4bn in lost revenue, probably $1bn - $2bn lost profit. This is on top of the concession/charges to customers and increased productions costs from reduced rates (which I think was the $5.6bn charge they took a few months ago).

Ouch.
 
airnorth
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Aug 22, 2019 8:25 pm

lamonjerem wrote:
Hi,
I just saw an Air Canada 737 Max 8 take off from CYVO en route to CYYB. Anyone know anything on that?

https://www.flightradar24.com/ACA2354/21cd0064


Its interesting when you search on FR24 for the flight history of C-GEJL. The website shows a flight from YYC - YUL on Aug 16th, then today there are three legs, YUL-YYB, YYB-YVO, and finally YVO-YYB.

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/c-gejl

Have to assume that it is either testing, or faulty info in FR24.
 
sgrow787
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Aug 22, 2019 8:30 pm

windian425 wrote:
Can't believe that Boeing is making these plans public without any definitive timeline from the FAA. If I was the FAA I would not be pleased..


Yep. By announcing their fix release and hiring plans, they're putting bounds on the time needed for FAA review.
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StTim
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Aug 22, 2019 8:44 pm

sgrow787 wrote:
windian425 wrote:
Can't believe that Boeing is making these plans public without any definitive timeline from the FAA. If I was the FAA I would not be pleased..


Yep. By announcing their fix release and hiring plans, they're putting bounds on the time needed for FAA review.


They can try to influence the FAA - I suspect that the FAA this time will not be influenced by pressure from Boeing.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Aug 22, 2019 8:49 pm

windian425 wrote:
Can't believe that Boeing is making these plans public without any definitive timeline from the FAA. If I was the FAA I would not be pleased..

You seem to be assuming there isn't some agreement between Boeing and FAA where Boeing is free to suggest a time line as long as it makes it clear that it is an estimate, which is what Boeing has been doing.

If FAA was not pleased, I think all it would take is one phone call from the FAA chief to Boeing's CEO and it would stop, but we've seen it repeated a few different times by the CEO so I doubt FAA is upset by this.
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StTim
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Aug 22, 2019 8:53 pm

If I was the FAA I wouldn't give two hoots what Boeing might say. Boeing are a private company - not an arm of government.
 
fcogafa
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Aug 22, 2019 8:54 pm

Planefinder shows the same flights, previous flight was 30th April,

airnorth wrote:
lamonjerem wrote:
Hi,
I just saw an Air Canada 737 Max 8 take off from CYVO en route to CYYB. Anyone know anything on that?

https://www.flightradar24.com/ACA2354/21cd0064


Its interesting when you search on FR24 for the flight history of C-GEJL. The website shows a flight from YYC - YUL on Aug 16th, then today there are three legs, YUL-YYB, YYB-YVO, and finally YVO-YYB.

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/c-gejl

Have to assume that it is either testing, or faulty info in FR24.
 
sgrow787
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Aug 22, 2019 8:57 pm

StTim wrote:
sgrow787 wrote:
windian425 wrote:
Can't believe that Boeing is making these plans public without any definitive timeline from the FAA. If I was the FAA I would not be pleased..


Yep. By announcing their fix release and hiring plans, they're putting bounds on the time needed for FAA review.


They can try to influence the FAA - I suspect that the FAA this time will not be influenced by pressure from Boeing.


But the pressure is being applied through the media. It will pit the airlines and flying public against the FAA if the review drags on. And it will motivate inspectors to not find issues.
Just one sensor,
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Just one sensor,
Ooh ooh oo-ooh
Oo-oo-ooh.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Aug 22, 2019 9:01 pm

Revelation wrote:
windian425 wrote:
Can't believe that Boeing is making these plans public without any definitive timeline from the FAA. If I was the FAA I would not be pleased..

You seem to be assuming there isn't some agreement between Boeing and FAA where Boeing is free to suggest a time line as long as it makes it clear that it is an estimate, which is what Boeing has been doing.

If FAA was not pleased, I think all it would take is one phone call from the FAA chief to Boeing's CEO and it would stop, but we've seen it repeated a few different times by the CEO so I doubt FAA is upset by this.


Well, the FAA is one of the players here, but there are also other regulatory agencies to consider from other countries. Given the mistakes made by the FAA, I am sure they will be far more critical when dealing with Boeing. Do we know if those regulatory - especially those from the EU and China - agencies work closely with the FAA and thus if the FAA lifts the ban on the MAX, that others will follow suit, or that there will be a lengthy process after the FAA gives its ok? (or the other way around, others will lift the ban, while the FAA says no).
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StTim
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Aug 22, 2019 9:04 pm

sgrow787 wrote:
StTim wrote:
sgrow787 wrote:

Yep. By announcing their fix release and hiring plans, they're putting bounds on the time needed for FAA review.


They can try to influence the FAA - I suspect that the FAA this time will not be influenced by pressure from Boeing.


But the pressure is being applied through the media. It will pit the airlines and flying public against the FAA if the review drags on. And it will motivate inspectors to not find issues.


Any inspector motivated to not find issues - should be fired. Their job is to find issues, if there are some.
 
sgrow787
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Aug 22, 2019 9:07 pm

StTim wrote:
If I was the FAA I wouldn't give two hoots what Boeing might say. Boeing are a private company - not an arm of government.


Boeing is a public company since its IPO in the 70s. And its big enough to influence anything and anybody including a body of government.
Just one sensor,
Oh just one se-en-sor,
Just one sensor,
Ooh ooh oo-ooh
Oo-oo-ooh.
 
Sooner787
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Aug 22, 2019 9:18 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Revelation wrote:
windian425 wrote:
Can't believe that Boeing is making these plans public without any definitive timeline from the FAA. If I was the FAA I would not be pleased..

You seem to be assuming there isn't some agreement between Boeing and FAA where Boeing is free to suggest a time line as long as it makes it clear that it is an estimate, which is what Boeing has been doing.

If FAA was not pleased, I think all it would take is one phone call from the FAA chief to Boeing's CEO and it would stop, but we've seen it repeated a few different times by the CEO so I doubt FAA is upset by this.


Well, the FAA is one of the players here, but there are also other regulatory agencies to consider from other countries. Given the mistakes made by the FAA, I am sure they will be far more critical when dealing with Boeing. Do we know if those regulatory - especially those from the EU and China - agencies work closely with the FAA and thus if the FAA lifts the ban on the MAX, that others will follow suit, or that there will be a lengthy process after the FAA gives its ok? (or the other way around, others will lift the ban, while the FAA says no).


I'm sure the other regulatory agencies have been kept in the loop during this whole evolution
and know as much as the FAA , so once the FAA clears the Max's to return to service, I'm thinking
the other agencies will follow ... Of course, with the Chinese, geopolitical currents will also play a role
in when they lift their ban.

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