Spetsnaz55
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Aug 23, 2019 5:00 pm

Possible boeing is having all delivered planes also brought to moses lake for faster upgrades from mainly one location?
 
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smittythepirate
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Aug 23, 2019 6:33 pm

airnorth wrote:
Here is what I am assuming is another test flight:
https://www.flightradar24.com/BOE273/21cfe2a4

ARA - MWH does Boeing have any kind of facilities in Louisiana?
Seems to be a "normal" flight at cruising altitude and speed.


I know that Boeing sends 787s to New Iberia to get painted every now and then
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lhrnue
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Aug 23, 2019 7:15 pm

Is there somewhere a summary/progress report of the re-certification progress?
 
oschkosch
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Aug 23, 2019 7:21 pm

lhrnue wrote:
Is there somewhere a summary/progress report of the re-certification progress?
No, because no process has been started yet.

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airnorth
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Aug 23, 2019 8:27 pm

Another interesting track on this Boeing flight, check out the altitude and speed graphs, very interesting, def not just a ferry flight.

https://www.flightradar24.com/BOE340/21d07642
 
RickNRoll
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Aug 23, 2019 10:09 pm

EASA still has it's list of issues to be resolved besides MCAS.
 
bob75013
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Aug 23, 2019 10:24 pm

lhrnue wrote:
Is there somewhere a summary/progress report of the re-certification progress?


Ah, no -- becasue the aircraft was not de certified.
 
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flyingphil
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 24, 2019 3:06 am

So, at last, some progress, but no time line on the ungrounding.
Could drag on for months ;(

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ethi ... SKCN1VC28R

FAA says it will invite global Boeing 737 MAX pilots to simulator tests
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 24, 2019 3:23 am

As with the other article upthread, they are talking about Boeing reprogramming some stall prevention system, are we sure this is not fake news or a click bait article?
I thought we were over the MCAS was a stall prevention system?
 
Overthecascades
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 24, 2019 3:45 am

flyingphil wrote:
So, at last, some progress, but no time line on the ungrounding.
Could drag on for months ;(

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ethi ... SKCN1VC28R

FAA says it will invite global Boeing 737 MAX pilots to simulator tests


Wouldn’t this tell us that fixes have passed Boeing’s testing and now are ready to be tested by the industry??
 
IADFCO
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 24, 2019 5:34 am

planecane wrote:
There is a need to shout because you don't understand the aerodynamics at all. Just like trim is usually used to balance control forces, MCAS uses trim to cause more force to be necessary in order to counteract the fact that the nacelles are essentially adding a nose up trim under certain conditions. MCAS isn't "pushing the nose down" a single time. It is "holding the nose down" while under the conditions that caused it to activate.
[...]


Well, if we really want to look at aerodynamics, I would be very careful in attributing the nonlinearity in the cm(alpha) curve (i.e., the stick lightening) to the lift generated by the nacelle, as many do.

Look for example at the wind tunnel tests by Fletcher of 5 annular airfoils (basically empty nacelles) [1] or those by Mort and Yaggy [2] of a ducted fan at the tip of a wing. They are obviously not entirely representative of what is happening on the MAX, but can give a good idea.

The assumption that it's the nacelle lift that causes the stick lightening implies that the nacelle generates little or no lift at low angles of attack, and then as alpha increases, at some point --boom!-- the lift suddenly increases, and the nose-up pitching moment appears, and you need MCAS.

Instead, the wind tunnel tests indicate that the lift generated by the nacelle is very linear with alpha, i.e., it increases gradually and proportionally to alpha, both at low and high angles of attack. So unless the LEAP behaves differently from the nacelle/ducted fans in the two references (it could), lift on the nacelle does not cause the stick lightening.

My own opinion is that the stick lightening is due to the aerodynamic interference between the engine and the wing, with the LEAP being mounted so high that it blocks the airflow over the leading edge of a portion of the wing in a very different way from what happens in the NG, 777, and 787. I'm very curious to know if the FAA has stalled the MAX with MCAS off (straight flight and turns, with different pitch rates) and how different the stall characteristics are, compared with the NG.




[1] https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=1993 ... ion%7CNACA

[2] https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?N=0&Nt ... allpartial
 
oschkosch
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 24, 2019 6:16 am

Anyone find this article elsewhere?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/bad-design ... 1566580765


Bad Design on 737 MAX Had a Terrible Cost
After the extensive accident investigations, there is no doubt that the malfunction of the new MCAS computer in the 737 MAX is the probable cause of two terrible crashes.
 
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flyingphil
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 24, 2019 6:50 am

Overthecascades wrote:
flyingphil wrote:
So, at last, some progress, but no time line on the ungrounding.
Could drag on for months ;(

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ethi ... SKCN1VC28R

FAA says it will invite global Boeing 737 MAX pilots to simulator tests


Wouldn’t this tell us that fixes have passed Boeing’s testing and now are ready to be tested by the industry??


It's possible, but I don't think Boeing have submitted the fix yet?

The news is open to interpretation.. how many pilots are they after?
How long will the Sim sessions take?
How long to analyse the results?
Have they found a new issue they want to explore?
I can imagine this dragging on for many months, but my guess is as good as yours.
 
uta999
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 24, 2019 10:30 am

IADFCO wrote:
planecane wrote:
There is a need to shout because you don't understand the aerodynamics at all. Just like trim is usually used to balance control forces, MCAS uses trim to cause more force to be necessary in order to counteract the fact that the nacelles are essentially adding a nose up trim under certain conditions. MCAS isn't "pushing the nose down" a single time. It is "holding the nose down" while under the conditions that caused it to activate.
[...]


Well, if we really want to look at aerodynamics, I would be very careful in attributing the nonlinearity in the cm(alpha) curve (i.e., the stick lightening) to the lift generated by the nacelle, as many do.

Look for example at the wind tunnel tests by Fletcher of 5 annular airfoils (basically empty nacelles) [1] or those by Mort and Yaggy [2] of a ducted fan at the tip of a wing. They are obviously not entirely representative of what is happening on the MAX, but can give a good idea.

The assumption that it's the nacelle lift that causes the stick lightening implies that the nacelle generates little or no lift at low angles of attack, and then as alpha increases, at some point --boom!-- the lift suddenly increases, and the nose-up pitching moment appears, and you need MCAS.

Instead, the wind tunnel tests indicate that the lift generated by the nacelle is very linear with alpha, i.e., it increases gradually and proportionally to alpha, both at low and high angles of attack. So unless the LEAP behaves differently from the nacelle/ducted fans in the two references (it could), lift on the nacelle does not cause the stick lightening.

My own opinion is that the stick lightening is due to the aerodynamic interference between the engine and the wing, with the LEAP being mounted so high that it blocks the airflow over the leading edge of a portion of the wing in a very different way from what happens in the NG, 777, and 787. I'm very curious to know if the FAA has stalled the MAX with MCAS off (straight flight and turns, with different pitch rates) and how different the stall characteristics are, compared with the NG.




[1] https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=1993 ... ion%7CNACA

[2] https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?N=0&Nt ... allpartial


Were there any wind-tunnel tests carried out with models of the MAX, prior to Boeing bolting on these 40% bigger new hairdryers (being further forward and higher)? Did they test extreme AoA and turns? I think Boeing only found out once it was flying, hence MCAS was a late bolt-on reaction to a big unforeseen problem.
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 24, 2019 1:13 pm

uta999 wrote:
Were there any wind-tunnel tests carried out with models of the MAX, prior to Boeing bolting on these 40% bigger new hairdryers (being further forward and higher)? Did they test extreme AoA and turns? I think Boeing only found out once it was flying, hence MCAS was a late bolt-on reaction to a big unforeseen problem.

Your thinking is incorrect: ST says that the issue was discovered in the wing tunnel in 2012.

Early in the development of the 737 MAX, engineers gathered at Boeing’s transonic wind tunnel in Seattle to test the jet’s aerodynamics using a scale model with a wingspan comparable to that of an eagle.

The testing in 2012, with air flow approaching the speed of sound, allowed engineers to analyze how the airplane’s aerodynamics would handle a range of extreme maneuvers. When the data came back, according to an engineer involved in the testing, it was clear there was an issue to address.

Engineers observed a tendency for the plane’s nose to pitch upward during a specific extreme maneuver. After other efforts to fix the problem failed, the solution they arrived at was a piece of software — the Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System (MCAS) — that would move a powerful control surface at the tail to push the airplane’s nose down.

Ref: https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-ne ... afeguards/

flyingphil wrote:
It's possible, but I don't think Boeing have submitted the fix yet?

The news is open to interpretation.. how many pilots are they after?
How long will the Sim sessions take?
How long to analyse the results?
Have they found a new issue they want to explore?
I can imagine this dragging on for many months, but my guess is as good as yours.

I can imagine this resulting in return to service in early Q4 just like Boeing's CEO has been telling us for weeks now.

Keep in mind Boeing was said to have started the MCAS fix right after ET and was close to deploying that fix when JT happened.

FAA/EASA reviews have found other issues, most notably the 'cosmic ray' issue, but unless they cause knock on effects, IMO they won't 'drag on for months'.

We know FAA/EASA are already engaged so by the time the package hits their desks the contents will be well known to them.

The media is already reporting about line pilots being brought in for tests in mid September and you don't do that till you've already exercised it thoroughly with company and FAA test pilots before then.

The fact that we got detailed media reports on the 'cosmic ray' fix on the same day from ST and AvWeek both containing the same estimated time line for return to service makes it clear to me at least that they were given an off the record briefing and this would not have happened if Boeing wasn't really confident about the root cause and the fix.
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PixelFlight
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 24, 2019 2:10 pm

flyingphil wrote:
So, at last, some progress, but no time line on the ungrounding.
Could drag on for months ;(

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ethi ... SKCN1VC28R

FAA says it will invite global Boeing 737 MAX pilots to simulator tests

Interesting:
[...] the [FAA] agency had asked the three U.S. airlines that operate the MAX to provide the names of some pilots who had only flown the 737 for around a year, including at least one MAX flight.

I wonder why there specifically need pilots that have "at least one MAX flight., since the MAX is designed to be like the NG and only require a single hour of documentation on a iPad. I doubt that this is to cut the cost of a single hour.

And why "pilots who had only flown the 737 for around a year" anyway ? The 737-8/9 MAX have killed experienced pilots too.
 
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keesje
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 24, 2019 2:15 pm

EASA and CAAC will approve return to service when their explicit requirements have been met.

Additionally it might be wise of FAA and Boeing to demonstrate enhancement to the certification process.

Keeping in mind the upcoming Boeing 777-9 certification by FAA, where grand fathering of design and certification requirements seemingly entered new territory.
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 24, 2019 2:32 pm

keesje wrote:
EASA and CAAC will approve return to service when their explicit requirements have been met.

Good thing that EASA has already provided its list of things to fix on the 737.

keesje wrote:
Additionally it might be wise of FAA and Boeing to demonstrate enhancement to the certification process.

The upcoming JATR committee report covers that.

keesje wrote:
Keeping in mind the upcoming Boeing 777-9 certification by FAA, where grand fathering of design and certification requirements seemingly entered new territory.

Yep, and it's also something EU will have to deal with in upcoming A320 and A350 variants, CN and ARJ/C919, etc.

Still no evidence for your purported "come to Jesus" moment though.
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 24, 2019 6:01 pm

PixelFlight wrote:
I wonder why there specifically need pilots that have "at least one MAX flight., since the MAX is designed to be like the NG and only require a single hour of documentation on a iPad. I doubt that this is to cut the cost of a single hour.

And why "pilots who had only flown the 737 for around a year" anyway ? The 737-8/9 MAX have killed experienced pilots too.

Sounds as if they are looking for inexperienced MAX pilots....so as the regulator this may let them know if the current difference training is adequate.
I would not be shocked if they threw things at them that they never experienced in their NG time to make a point, after all, they did ambush Boeing before with the bit flip, which was surprising since they are supposed to be in Boeing's pocket....
 
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PW100
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 24, 2019 7:26 pm

Revelation wrote:
keesje wrote:
Keeping in mind the upcoming Boeing 777-9 certification by FAA, where grand fathering of design and certification requirements seemingly entered new territory.

Yep, and it's also something EU will have to deal with in upcoming A320 and A350 variants, CN and ARJ/C919, etc.

Still no evidence for your purported "come to Jesus" moment though.

What is this "come to Jesus" moment?
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 24, 2019 7:54 pm

PW100 wrote:
What is this "come to Jesus" moment?

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1426007&start=2600#p21608903
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freakyrat
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 25, 2019 1:05 am

airnorth wrote:
Here is what I am assuming is another test flight:
https://www.flightradar24.com/BOE273/21cfe2a4

ARA - MWH does Boeing have any kind of facilities in Louisiana?
Seems to be a "normal" flight at cruising altitude and speed.


There is a large MRO and Paint Shop Facility in New Iberia, LA that is used by various airlines.
 
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PITingres
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 25, 2019 2:38 am

keesje wrote:
:arrow: Show how the original MCAS solution got certified, how it passed all safety layers and double checks.
:arrow: Prove MCAS was an incident, no other, potentially faulty, design choices have followed the same approval process.
:arrow: Explain why Boeing and FAA were so late pulling the TC.
:arrow: How Boeing / FAA guarantee independent oversight, which can't be overruled by commercial, political interests
:arrow: Clarity on who was responsible for a faulty design entering service. What corrective actions have been taken.



What does any of that have to do with certification? You are describing investigative agency procedures (e.g. NTSB), not certificating steps. Determining who was at fault or what procedures were wrong has zero to do with verifying that the new solution is correct, as long as the new solution is analyzed without reliance on old solution data or assumptions.
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JetBuddy
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 25, 2019 2:30 pm

PITingres wrote:
keesje wrote:
:arrow: Show how the original MCAS solution got certified, how it passed all safety layers and double checks.
:arrow: Prove MCAS was an incident, no other, potentially faulty, design choices have followed the same approval process.
:arrow: Explain why Boeing and FAA were so late pulling the TC.
:arrow: How Boeing / FAA guarantee independent oversight, which can't be overruled by commercial, political interests
:arrow: Clarity on who was responsible for a faulty design entering service. What corrective actions have been taken.



What does any of that have to do with certification? You are describing investigative agency procedures (e.g. NTSB), not certificating steps. Determining who was at fault or what procedures were wrong has zero to do with verifying that the new solution is correct, as long as the new solution is analyzed without reliance on old solution data or assumptions.


It does have something to do with Boeing and FAA safety culture. Corporate interests over public safety. And so on. Personally I won't fly on a MAX until each of these questions are answered, even if the MAX is deemed safe again. It's a matter of building trust in both Boeing and FAA.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 25, 2019 3:12 pm

JetBuddy wrote:
It does have something to do with Boeing and FAA safety culture. Corporate interests over public safety. And so on. Personally I won't fly on a MAX until each of these questions are answered, even if the MAX is deemed safe again. It's a matter of building trust in both Boeing and FAA.

I guess you won't be flying a MAX ever again, nor any US certified aircraft either, and others will make their own minds up in their own ways. That's OK, I'll never fly Air France after AF447. I have no faith they've changed the approach to selecting and training pilots after that accident. IMO, they just gave it the Gallic shrug and moved on. Similar to one poster's expectations in the case of Boeing/FAA, I was waiting for AF to have a "come to Jesus" moment and it never happened, yet AF seems to be no worse off due to my personal distaste for their safety culture.

ACATROYAL wrote:
My god, it seems that in this thread every possible component of the 737 MAX has been dissected, scrutinized and debated. I can't believe that there's anything left to discuss but I suspect some people will always find something else to analyze. This thread is now on its 40th and still counting page, so I will now predict it will hit 100+ pages by the time it gets authorized to fly again. I don't know what more can be said but it will be interesting to see...

It looks like you're going to lose that bet. Seems we now have the end of the MAX saga in sight, a few posters vented a bit and then this thread went 12 hours with no posts, and even fell off a.net's page one over night. As one poster likes to write, it seems we have had a lot of recalculation going on and this saga no longer suits various agendas, so IMO it will go even more quiet over time.
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PW100
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 25, 2019 3:20 pm

Revelation wrote:
PW100 wrote:
What is this "come to Jesus" moment?

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1426007&start=2600#p21608903


A bit more specific would be most helpful . . .
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 25, 2019 3:42 pm

PW100 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
PW100 wrote:
What is this "come to Jesus" moment?

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1426007&start=2600#p21608903

A bit more specific would be most helpful . . .

It's an American expression often used in corporate settings i.e. "we had a real 'come to Jesus' meeting today".

The expression is based on preachers begging sinners to 'come to Jesus', confess their sins, and be saved.

One attempt to define it:

An epiphany in which one realizes the truth of a matter; a sudden, intuitive perception of or insight into the reality or essential meaning of something; coming clean and admitting failures; realizing the true weight or impact of a negative situation or fact; acknowledgment that one must get back to core values; moment of realization; an aha moment; moment of decision; moment of truth; critical moment; moment of reassessment of priorities; turning point; life-changing moment.

Ref: https://www.urbandictionary.com/define. ... s%20moment

It's clear many posters here are waiting for this to happen on the part of Boeing/FAA.

It's clear to me that there is no actual requirement for such, and given the legal implications of admitting failures, it's just not going to happen.

We have months of evidence that this will not be the path chosen.

Many will be disappointed by this, but in the end, I doubt such disappointment will matter.
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keesje
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 25, 2019 4:20 pm

It's clear many posters here are waiting for Boeing to be pardonned by the FAA, accepting promises of improvement, the hundreds of MAX's fly again, everybody forgets and the stock price is up.

I hope the MAX gets recertified without to many shortcuts and innovative self certification innitiatives.

Some recognition of mistakes made and ambitious enhancements to the process will be welcomed by victim's families, Boeing customers and the travellers in general.

We have seen far to much arrogance, denial, blaming and slow thinking in regards to flight safety. Time for some honesty and positive impulses.
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COEWR787
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 25, 2019 4:38 pm

keesje wrote:
I hope the MAX gets recertified without to many shortcuts and innovative self certification innitiatives.

When was the MAX decertified by the FAA that would require it to be recertified?
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 25, 2019 4:45 pm

keesje wrote:
It's clear many posters here are waiting for Boeing to be pardonned by the FAA, accepting promises of improvement, the hundreds of MAX's fly again, everybody forgets and the stock price is up.

I hope the MAX gets recertified without to many shortcuts and innovative self certification innitiatives.

Some recognition of mistakes made and ambitious enhancements to the process will be welcomed by victim's families, Boeing customers and the travellers in general.

We have seen far to much arrogance, denial, blaming and slow thinking in regards to flight safety. Time for some honesty and positive impulses.

I guess you missed Boeing Chief Dennis Muilenburg saying things like:

We are sorrowful about what happened, and our deepest sympathies remain with the families and loved ones that have been affected. It weighs heavily on our team, and you can sense it across the company. Safety is our top priority and has become an even more focused area for us as we work diligently through the MAX situation. It has always been at our core, but our values around quality, integrity and safety have come even more to the forefront, and that’s going to make us a stronger company. We know we fell short in some areas; we’re going to make improvements, and we own that. We also have to re-earn the trust of the flying public. Our focus in the weeks ahead is to work with our regulators and customers to ensure the safe return to service of the MAX. And when it returns to the skies with the updated software, it will be one of the safest airplanes ever to fly.

And:

We’ve taken a hard look at the MAX design, and the design and certification processes, from end to end. The [Giambastiani] committee is going to continue to scrutinize that. We have taken a very hard look at MCAS: the design and architecture, how we went through the trade studies and arrived at the final architecture, and how it was certified. We found that it was done consistently, and the FAA has concurred that it was designed and certified according to our processes. That said, we’ve learned from the accidents that there are areas where we can improve, and it’s important for our engineering team to understand that as we communicate what we’ve learned from MAX. While our fundamental engineering and certification processes as they exist today are sound, we never stop learning. Aviation has evolved into the safest form of transportation in the world. There has been a 95% reduction in accident rates over the last 20 years. Our engineering team should be very proud of that but also acknowledge that we can always learn and get better. That’s the takeaway from the MAX.

I suspect many people here are just not going to be happy even if/when they hear the things they keep saying they want to hear.
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 25, 2019 4:55 pm

COEWR787 wrote:
keesje wrote:
I hope the MAX gets recertified without to many shortcuts and innovative self certification innitiatives.

When was the MAX decertified by the FAA that would require it to be recertified?

By all means, please post a correction, if you think the language is incorrect. Please don’t post passive-aggressive rhetorical questions. It comes across as arrogant and antagonistic, and it does nothing to help the discussion.
 
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keesje
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 25, 2019 5:07 pm

Revelation wrote:

We’ve taken a hard look at the MAX design, and the design and certification processes, from end to end. The [Giambastiani] committee is going to continue to scrutinize that. We have taken a very hard look at MCAS: the design and architecture, how we went through the trade studies and arrived at the final architecture, and how it was certified. We found that it was done consistently, and the FAA has concurred that it was designed and certified according to our processes. That said, we’ve learned from the accidents that there are areas where we can improve, and it’s important for our engineering team to understand that as we communicate what we’ve learned from MAX. While our fundamental engineering and certification processes as they exist today are sound, we never stop learning. Aviation has evolved into the safest form of transportation in the world. There has been a 95% reduction in accident rates over the last 20 years. Our engineering team should be very proud of that but also acknowledge that we can always learn and get better. That’s the takeaway from the MAX.




Maybe some readers are not able to see the arrogance, denial and in-ability to take responsibility shining through here. Maybe they hired the wrong communication consultants. Focussed to strong on the home team / stake holders.

Probably some sobering statements from Canada, Europe and China soon.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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aerolimani
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 25, 2019 5:09 pm

Revelation wrote:
PW100 wrote:
Revelation wrote:

A bit more specific would be most helpful . . .

It's an American expression often used in corporate settings i.e. "we had a real 'come to Jesus' meeting today".

The expression is based on preachers begging sinners to 'come to Jesus', confess their sins, and be saved.

One attempt to define it:

An epiphany in which one realizes the truth of a matter; a sudden, intuitive perception of or insight into the reality or essential meaning of something; coming clean and admitting failures; realizing the true weight or impact of a negative situation or fact; acknowledgment that one must get back to core values; moment of realization; an aha moment; moment of decision; moment of truth; critical moment; moment of reassessment of priorities; turning point; life-changing moment.

Ref: https://www.urbandictionary.com/define. ... s%20moment

It's clear many posters here are waiting for this to happen on the part of Boeing/FAA.

It's clear to me that there is no actual requirement for such, and given the legal implications of admitting failures, it's just not going to happen.

We have months of evidence that this will not be the path chosen.

Many will be disappointed by this, but in the end, I doubt such disappointment will matter.

I think you are correct. A “come to Jesus” moment will likely never come from Boeing and the FAA.

I think the best we can hope for is that US legislators will decide to adjust the role of the FAA in two ways. One would be to greatly reduce the amount of self-certification. The other would be to remove the role of the FAA as an encourager of innovation and development of the aviation industry. I wouldn’t go so far as to call it a definite conflict of interest, but I don’t think it aligns well with their role of ensuring safety. There’s a great potential for oversight to be seen as a hindrance to innovation.

However, with the state of American politics, I don’t think any such changes are likely to take place. I don’t think a change of government would increase the likelihood either. So… we will likely be disappointed.

I think the best we can actually hope for is that the financial cost of this major cockup will be enough for Boeing’s leaders to remember beyond the next fiscal quarter, and to take steps to ensure they don’t end up here ever again.
 
WIederling
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 25, 2019 5:21 pm

COEWR787 wrote:
keesje wrote:
I hope the MAX gets recertified without to many shortcuts and innovative self certification innitiatives.

When was the MAX decertified by the FAA that would require it to be recertified?


MCAS is a design and certification defect.
The grounding invalidated aspects of the certification. the were never "suitable" for the purpose.

Thus the MAX is currently not certified to be used as a transport class airframe.

This is afaics different to cracks developing earlier as expected.

Not quite sure how the coating change triggered LP turbine shaft detachments on GenX1B has to be seen.
Error in processing/manufacture or certification of an unsuitable process?
Murphy is an optimist
 
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sassiciai
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 25, 2019 5:24 pm

2683 prior posts on this thread when I started typing a few minutes ago!

When was the last time there was any real "News" - it seems that in absence of real news, the level of speculation has gone up again, while the number of active posters may have shrunk, leaving just a hard core to continue as if it was personally life-threatening for each of them. Maybe some of them need to go out and have a vacation for a few weeks, leaving their web access behind! Come back with refreshed spirit, and a clear mind!

There is one camp with much optimism that everything necessary is proceeding under the radar, and that in Q4, MAX's will be cleared and flying all over the globe. For that to happen, the numerous national certification agencies should be well integrated into any and all progress being made. In which case, why do we not hear anything from this, I cant believe that there is any conspiracy of silence! The exact opposite is what is required, if Joe Public is going to book flights for his family and/or his next business trip!

My wife and kids fly quite a bit (me too), and Ryanair is a convenient carrier for us, Charleroi is just 40km from our home. Even they - not remotely interested in aviation - tell me that they don't want to fly on the "crash plane"!

Boeing has a PR department - what has it been coming up with in the recent past towards the general public? As far as I hear, the answer is "Nothing"

If the solution is delivered to the FAA end-September, and approval end-October, I would expect that there would be already some PR-lead up-market "Ra Ra" going on, to generate some enthusiasm. Silence in that sphere is surprising - unless they know it is premature!

I really do hope that Boeing is hard at work on Plan B, the NSA. Also, no news on that front either! Boeing should be demonstrating a large degree of more openness, and telling the world what is going on, where they are, and what they anticipate. What news we have seems to be limited to what Boeing needs to tell Wall Street every Quarter
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 25, 2019 5:32 pm

aerolimani wrote:
COEWR787 wrote:
keesje wrote:
I hope the MAX gets recertified without to many shortcuts and innovative self certification innitiatives.

When was the MAX decertified by the FAA that would require it to be recertified?

By all means, please post a correction, if you think the language is incorrect.

MAX is temporarily prohibited from operating ( ref: https://www.faa.gov/news/updates/media/ ... _Order.pdf ), its certificate is not withdrawn.

keesje wrote:
Revelation wrote:
We’ve taken a hard look at the MAX design, and the design and certification processes, from end to end. The [Giambastiani] committee is going to continue to scrutinize that. We have taken a very hard look at MCAS: the design and architecture, how we went through the trade studies and arrived at the final architecture, and how it was certified. We found that it was done consistently, and the FAA has concurred that it was designed and certified according to our processes. That said, we’ve learned from the accidents that there are areas where we can improve, and it’s important for our engineering team to understand that as we communicate what we’ve learned from MAX. While our fundamental engineering and certification processes as they exist today are sound, we never stop learning. Aviation has evolved into the safest form of transportation in the world. There has been a 95% reduction in accident rates over the last 20 years. Our engineering team should be very proud of that but also acknowledge that we can always learn and get better. That’s the takeaway from the MAX.


Maybe some readers are not able to see the arrogance, denial and in-ability to take responsibility shining through here. Maybe they hired the wrong communication consultants. Focussed to strong on the home team / stake holders.

Maybe some readers are not able to see that any amount of recognition of mistakes made will never be enough to satisfy themselves.

Maybe they are focused too strongly on their home team and their stake holdings.

keesje wrote:
Probably some sobering statements from Canada, Europe and China soon.

I suspect you're going to be disappointed in the impact of such statements, just like you find the statements we already have to be disappointing.

sassiciai wrote:
There is one camp with much optimism that everything necessary is proceeding under the radar, and that in Q4, MAX's will be cleared and flying all over the globe.

I think that's a bit of an exaggeration.

It's clear Boeing's CEO is predicting return to service early in Q4.

It won't be too hard for that to slip a bit, and I'm pretty sure that statement doesn't cover "all over the globe".

It's not clear to me that a few weeks slip matters much, since the bulk of the northern winter peak season (Xmas, New Years, US/CA Thanksgiving, etc) are going to be missed.

Boeing's main concern is being able to show progress towards recovery, IMO.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
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Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
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aerolimani
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 25, 2019 6:15 pm

Revelation wrote:
aerolimani wrote:
COEWR787 wrote:
When was the MAX decertified by the FAA that would require it to be recertified?

By all means, please post a correction, if you think the language is incorrect.

MAX is temporarily prohibited from operating ( ref: https://www.faa.gov/news/updates/media/ ... _Order.pdf ), its certificate is not withdrawn.

Thank you for a useful answer. Much better than a rhetorical question.
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 25, 2019 6:19 pm

sassiciai wrote:
Boeing has a PR department - what has it been coming up with in the recent past towards the general public? As far as I hear, the answer is "Nothing"

300+ folks are dead, neither crash official report has been released, the MAX is still grounded while Boeing completes testing of their fixes prior to submission to the regulators. Perhaps you should put yourself in the shoes of the Boeing PR department and give an idea of what you would be saying or putting out to the public, that is what this site is for, sound out the public. Take the top honcho who said Making a safe plane safer or some such, vilified I think is the appropriate term. Another example, Boeing has started hiring staff to be deployed at Moses Lake, once again the public here was up in arms, Boeing was arrogant thinking the fix would be approved, Boeing was trying to put pressure on the FAA to approve the fix thanking the stars that EASA and other regulators would not bow to pressure, at no time or very little thought was given to the fact that there are a few hundred a/c that are grounded and will need work on them to either stay grounded or repaired for delivery back to their owners and operators.
Based on this sites public opinion, Boeing is d*** if you do and d*** if you don't, past history has proven that its best to save your powder until you have a real target.
If the a/c is approved to fly in October, the job of the PR department will be to go full force after the a.net detractors among others, if they convince them to fly the MAX or buy Boeing stock I would be shocked.
 
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sassiciai
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 25, 2019 6:44 pm

par13del wrote:
sassiciai wrote:
Boeing has a PR department - what has it been coming up with in the recent past towards the general public? As far as I hear, the answer is "Nothing"

300+ folks are dead, neither crash official report has been released, the MAX is still grounded while Boeing completes testing of their fixes prior to submission to the regulators. Perhaps you should put yourself in the shoes of the Boeing PR department and give an idea of what you would be saying or putting out to the public, that is what this site is for, sound out the public. Take the top honcho who said Making a safe plane safer or some such, vilified I think is the appropriate term. Another example, Boeing has started hiring staff to be deployed at Moses Lake, once again the public here was up in arms, Boeing was arrogant thinking the fix would be approved, Boeing was trying to put pressure on the FAA to approve the fix thanking the stars that EASA and other regulators would not bow to pressure, at no time or very little thought was given to the fact that there are a few hundred a/c that are grounded and will need work on them to either stay grounded or repaired for delivery back to their owners and operators.
Based on this sites public opinion, Boeing is d*** if you do and d*** if you don't, past history has proven that its best to save your powder until you have a real target.
If the a/c is approved to fly in October, the job of the PR department will be to go full force after the a.net detractors among others, if they convince them to fly the MAX or buy Boeing stock I would be shocked.

I don't agree with you. There is no news from Boeing in a lengthening amount of time. If there is nothing to say, normally the PR Dept will come out with a statement to that effect, and go on to mention all the different threads being pursued to resolve all the issues. Nothing at all is a rather bleak situation, and is one that can only encourage all sorts of speculation

I would expect a regular PR update - "we are doing THIS, we are planning to deliver THAT to the FAA on [DATE], we have flown X test flights with the new software, we have been doing ............."/ Why would anyone expect otherwise - so why is there nothing emerging? I find this silence very odd!
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 25, 2019 7:34 pm

sassiciai wrote:
I don't agree with you. There is no news from Boeing in a lengthening amount of time. If there is nothing to say, normally the PR Dept will come out with a statement to that effect, and go on to mention all the different threads being pursued to resolve all the issues. Nothing at all is a rather bleak situation, and is one that can only encourage all sorts of speculation

Clearly Boeing doesn't want to upset FAA by being seen as driving FAA's time line or doing things to strain their relationship so there's a limit to what they can say directly.

Of course, there's the old method of selective leaks, and it seems both FAA and Boeing are engaged in that.

Yesterday's juicy Bloomberg report, Boeing 737 Max’s Certification Flight Likely to Occur in October says:

The Federal Aviation Administration is likely to conduct its certification flight for Boeing Co.’s 737 Max in October, a key milestone toward returning the grounded jetliner to the skies, said people briefed on the matter.

That timing would be broadly consistent with Boeing’s estimate that the Max will return to service early in the fourth quarter, but may push the submission of a final certification package slightly beyond September, as the company previously estimated.

The U.S. planemaker is testing changes to the flight-control software architecture of its best-selling jetliner, which suffered two fatal crashes in a five-month span. Boeing engineers have almost worked their way through hundreds of queries fielded by the FAA from colleagues around the world, with few new concerns being raised at this point in the process, the people said.

It gives the kind of "nothing to say" statement you wanted to see from Boeing:

“We continue to support the FAA and global regulators on the safe return of the Max to service,” Boeing said in a statement.

Yet no grand unburdening at the aviation confessional so far.

And a little blurb from FAA saying is doing its job too:

The FAA is focused on ensuring that the revamped 737 Max systems meet safety requirements, and doesn’t have a timeline for returning the plane to service, according to a statement by the agency. FAA employees have already spent 110,000 hours working on the project, it said.

Seems they don't feel compelled to give the kind of time line you'd like to see.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 25, 2019 8:20 pm

sassiciai wrote:
I would expect a regular PR update - "we are doing THIS, we are planning to deliver THAT to the FAA on [DATE], we have flown X test flights with the new software, we have been doing ............."/ Why would anyone expect otherwise - so why is there nothing emerging? I find this silence very odd!

The a/c is grounded by federal mandate, they are investigating as well as working with the OEM to resolve all issues. The FAA is a public body, would it be fair to say that they have a larger burden to keep the public informed than a private company? Why is the FAA not out there saying why they had Boeing do a test flight, what they were testing, who flew the a/c their or Boeing pilots, I can go on but the point I am making is that the FAA works for the public not Boeing private investors, they have a responsibility to the public safety giving us actual facts versus the private company PR which will be worded to make us feel better.

If Boeing is out there putting out what they are doing with the FAA as has already happened, the public would believe they are attempting to undermine the investigation and the grounding. The private company cannot win in these type situations, if we the public want more info we should hold those who work under our mandate responsible for keeping us in the loop.
I suspect the problem is we will not like them saying that because the investigation is ongoing nothing can be revealed.
Boeing has said submission in September, they released that shortly after they had time to review the bit flip test failure, we are approaching the end of August and so far we have heard no change to that timeline. I am giving them till 30 Sep to deliver to the FAA, funny thing is, no one is questioning how much time and resources the FAA is lining up or whether they intend to put up additional requirements for what is the largest grounding in modern times, both in terms of number of a/c as well as economic, essentially, we have been so focused on Boeing that the regulators and their congressional master have gotten a free pass.
 
kayik
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 25, 2019 9:29 pm

Revelation wrote:
Seems they don't feel compelled to give the kind of time line you'd like to see.


However, they felt quite free for even "targetting" a deadline 4 months ago. :)

http://m.atwonline.com/regulation/faa-t ... s-approval
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 25, 2019 9:33 pm

kayik wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Seems they don't feel compelled to give the kind of time line you'd like to see.


However, they felt quite free for even "targetting" a deadline 4 months ago. :)

http://m.atwonline.com/regulation/faa-t ... s-approval

So this was the time when the first fix was delivered and the FAA sprung the bit flip test failure which now has us where we are today.
Lets see what they spring on us in October when they do the next round of testing.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 25, 2019 9:43 pm

keesje wrote:
EASA and CAAC will approve return to service when their explicit requirements have been met.

Additionally it might be wise of FAA and Boeing to demonstrate enhancement to the certification process.

Keeping in mind the upcoming Boeing 777-9 certification by FAA, where grand fathering of design and certification requirements seemingly entered new territory.


They could demand diamond encrusted thrust levers but that doesn't mean they will get them. Their issue has to be real. I have seen no evidence that their fetish over the trim wheel has any merit.
 
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keesje
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 25, 2019 9:54 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
keesje wrote:
EASA and CAAC will approve return to service when their explicit requirements have been met.

Additionally it might be wise of FAA and Boeing to demonstrate enhancement to the certification process.

Keeping in mind the upcoming Boeing 777-9 certification by FAA, where grand fathering of design and certification requirements seemingly entered new territory.


They could demand diamond encrusted thrust levers but that doesn't mean they will get them. Their issue has to be real. I have seen no evidence that their fetish over the trim wheel has any merit.


It is of course possible the FAA will approve Boeings solutions and the EASA, CAAC, others declare they need more time to review the solutions Boeing developed for the requirements they set to allow the 737MAX back in their airspaces.

In my opinion not a situation you want to get in as FAA, Boeing.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 25, 2019 10:06 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
keesje wrote:
EASA and CAAC will approve return to service when their explicit requirements have been met.

Additionally it might be wise of FAA and Boeing to demonstrate enhancement to the certification process.

Keeping in mind the upcoming Boeing 777-9 certification by FAA, where grand fathering of design and certification requirements seemingly entered new territory.


They could demand diamond encrusted thrust levers but that doesn't mean they will get them. Their issue has to be real. I have seen no evidence that their fetish over the trim wheel has any merit.


There is one real issue on the EASA list, that nobody mentions for quite a while. The manual trim. There is no software solution for that.
 
kalvado
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 25, 2019 10:21 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
keesje wrote:
EASA and CAAC will approve return to service when their explicit requirements have been met.

Additionally it might be wise of FAA and Boeing to demonstrate enhancement to the certification process.

Keeping in mind the upcoming Boeing 777-9 certification by FAA, where grand fathering of design and certification requirements seemingly entered new territory.


They could demand diamond encrusted thrust levers but that doesn't mean they will get them. Their issue has to be real. I have seen no evidence that their fetish over the trim wheel has any merit.


There is one real issue on the EASA list, that nobody mentions for quite a while. The manual trim. There is no software solution for that.

Can be a paperwork fix, though. In principle, Boeing may show that high-force manual trim from way out of trim position is no longer needed. Has to be a combination of past NG records for out of trim events, updated MCAS, possibly mandate roller coaster on a sim. But if they prove low enough crash probability, that is all they need.
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 25, 2019 11:37 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
There is one real issue on the EASA list, that nobody mentions for quite a while. The manual trim. There is no software solution for that.

So since the same condition exist on the NG is EASA giving that a/c a waiver or they are going to propose grounding?
If an NG is in a high speed out of trim situation the wheel is just as hard to turn, the trigger does not change the fact that the wheel is hard to turn.

Now if EASA wants to ensure that the trigger event - MCAS - is as minimal as any type of issue on the NG then fine, but your comment is about the difficulty of moving the trim wheel, so what to do about the NG.
 
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aerolimani
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 25, 2019 11:45 pm

par13del wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
There is one real issue on the EASA list, that nobody mentions for quite a while. The manual trim. There is no software solution for that.

So since the same condition exist on the NG is EASA giving that a/c a waiver or they are going to propose grounding?
If an NG is in a high speed out of trim situation the wheel is just as hard to turn, the trigger does not change the fact that the wheel is hard to turn.

Now if EASA wants to ensure that the trigger event - MCAS - is as minimal as any type of issue on the NG then fine, but your comment is about the difficulty of moving the trim wheel, so what to do about the NG.

Did the EASA ever officially confirm that they sent such a list? Or, is this only as "two people close to the situation confirmed"?
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 25, 2019 11:54 pm

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