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oschkosch
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 31, 2019 5:58 am

https://www.livemint.com/companies/news ... 14863.html

It seems that India regulators will not immediately follow any decision on ungrounding! :bigthumbsup:

“DGCA will be conservative and wait and watch, before taking any decision (on Boeing 737 MAX)," Kumar said. The suffering of Indian carriers because of the grounding of the planes has been limited as local airlines operate only a dozen such planes compared with about 400 used by airlines worldwide.

SpiceJet Ltd, one of the world’s biggest customers for the 737 MAX 8, has orders for 155 aircraft with purchase rights for 50 additional 737 MAX 8 and wide-body planes. The airline has taken delivery of 12 Boeing 737 MAX 8 planes so far, which are at present grounded.


https://edition.cnn.com/2019/08/30/busi ... index.html

United Airlines has pushed back its flight cancellations due to the Boeing 737 Max grounding until December 19.
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Ertro
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 31, 2019 6:20 am

sgrow787 wrote:
Wait, when did Boeing say they submitted their fix to the FAA (who then approved and submitted to JATR for review)? And when did it become within NTSB's scope to direct FAA's certification process??.


The way I read the committees is that these two are completely separate. JATR studies the approval process theoretically concentrating on the process itself like what kind of paperwork is produced by whom and how any raised points of concern are handled and how these paperwork and bureaucracy things went wrong in 737MAX. They do not look at any technical design stuff that is specific to any airplane.
 
XRAYretired
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 31, 2019 9:08 am

Ertro wrote:
sgrow787 wrote:
Wait, when did Boeing say they submitted their fix to the FAA (who then approved and submitted to JATR for review)? And when did it become within NTSB's scope to direct FAA's certification process??.


The way I read the committees is that these two are completely separate. JATR studies the approval process theoretically concentrating on the process itself like what kind of paperwork is produced by whom and how any raised points of concern are handled and how these paperwork and bureaucracy things went wrong in 737MAX. They do not look at any technical design stuff that is specific to any airplane.

Guys, think of the reviews as covering the timeline:

US DoT Review of the FAA
Review the FAA’s process for certifying the Boeing 737 Max 8. The special committee is specifically tasked to review the 737 Max 8 certification process from 2012 to 2017. The findings from that review will provide the basis for recommendations for future improvements. The committee’s goal is to make proposals to improve “the FAA's aircraft certification process, including recommendations on delegations of authority and training, and improvements to other certification processes. Topics for investigation include the FAA’s certification process and timelines, and the process under which the FAA delegates some certification and oversight work to aircraft manufacturers and their employees. (the process to 2017)

Joint Authorities Technical Review panel
“The JATR team will conduct a comprehensive review of the certification of the aircraft’s automated flight control system, The team will evaluate aspects of the 737 Max automated flight control system, including its design and pilots’ interaction with the system, to determine its compliance with all applicable regulations and to identify future enhancements that might be needed.” The JATR is led by veteran NTSB investigator, Chris Hart. (the MAX ~2017)

Technical Advisory Board (TAB)
Review Boeing’s proposed software fix. The board consists of experts from the FAA, U.S. Air Force, NASA and the DOT's Volpe National Transportation Systems Center that were not involved in any aspect of the Boeing 737 Max certification. The board’s recommendations will “directly inform the FAA’s decision concerning the 737 Max fleet’s safe return to service.”. The new panel is separate from two other existing reviews created by FAA.
“The TAB is charged with evaluating Boeing and FAA efforts related to Boeing’s software update and its integration into the 737 MAX flight control system. The TAB will identify issues where further investigation is required prior to FAA approval of the design change,” (the MAX fix 2019)
http://www.b737.org.uk/mcas.htm

Ray
 
uta999
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 31, 2019 9:56 am

So quite rightly, The NTSB is to review the whole new aircraft certification process to ensure it is fit for purpose. Something I mentioned weeks ago, but was not well received on A-Net.
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oschkosch
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:36 am

uta999 wrote:
So quite rightly, The NTSB is to review the whole new aircraft certification process to ensure it is fit for purpose. Something I mentioned weeks ago, but was not well received on A-Net.
Sounds like a sensible way forward imho!

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Polot
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 31, 2019 11:04 am

uta999 wrote:
So quite rightly, The NTSB is to review the whole new aircraft certification process to ensure it is fit for purpose. Something I mentioned weeks ago, but was not well received on A-Net.

You were suggesting the NTSB take over all aircraft certification going forward, which is very different than reviewing aircraft certification process/procedure and recommending changes.
 
uta999
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 31, 2019 11:16 am

Polot wrote:
uta999 wrote:
So quite rightly, The NTSB is to review the whole new aircraft certification process to ensure it is fit for purpose. Something I mentioned weeks ago, but was not well received on A-Net.

You were suggesting the NTSB take over all aircraft certification going forward, which is very different than reviewing aircraft certification process/procedure and recommending changes.


That could very well be one of the outcomes of the review. The FAA could lose some of its current workload, with the staff transferring over to another organisation.
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PW100
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 31, 2019 11:25 am

Checklist787 wrote:
PW100 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Go tell this to any statistics teacher and be prepared for them to laugh in your face, or maybe even slap you in your face.

https://www.dictionary.com/browse/fallacy gives one definition of fallacy as "logically unsound", and that's a perfect fit for this situation.

You can't use a small data set gathered under one set of conditions to compare against a large data set gathered under different conditions and make a conclusion, it's logically unsound.

It's like saying you could use the data set of the Airbus A320 the day after the Habsheim crash to draw conclusions about A320 hull loss relative to the entire set of mature aircraft.
.


How many crashes (and what deathtoll) would you deem necessary to start considering such statiscally relevant?

You might have had a point if we were discussing one single MAX accident (ie. before Ethopian).

Once we had two accidents in extremely short succession, with identical charateristics, bringing up single unique events (like Hapsheim) make you sound like Boeing PR department being in damage control mode; it doesn't help your credibility to put it politely.


Absheim is a very good example why deny it?

The accident happened at the beginning of the A320's history and it's a chance that it would happen when it was not yet in service.

In this case, it is quite right to mention it since the 737MAX IS ALSO in its infancy and in 8 - 15 years we would have forgotten the drama after delivery of thousands of Max's.


If you guys can't comprehend the monumental difference between a SINGLE crash, and TWO very similar accidents in EXTREMELY short succession, then I can find no further words. It must be me. Sorry for wasting your time.
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WIederling
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 31, 2019 11:37 am

bob75013 wrote:
And yet we had a report on Wednesday that Boeing is planning to increase MAX production to 47/month in October, 52/month in February, and 57/month by summer 2020.

So which is it: close the Max lines or ramp up production?


Just like any other FUD rumor: spread info that will hold off decisions in an undesirable direction.
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 31, 2019 2:49 pm

uta999 wrote:
So quite rightly, The NTSB is to review the whole new aircraft certification process to ensure it is fit for purpose. Something I mentioned weeks ago, but was not well received on A-Net.

Right, but since we know controversial aspects such as FAA's delegation of responsibility are controlled by Acts of Congress, in the US such a review will largely act as input to the lawmaking process, while of course other regulators may use it to examine their willingness to accept FAA certification.

In short, from the US perspective, NTSB can make recommendations but has no ability to force FAA to do anything, and FAA has its hands tied to a fair degree by Acts of Congress, and changing these relationships will require Acts of Congress.

XRAYretired wrote:
Guys, think of the reviews as covering the timeline:

US DoT Review of the FAA
Review the FAA’s process for certifying the Boeing 737 Max 8. The special committee is specifically tasked to review the 737 Max 8 certification process from 2012 to 2017. The findings from that review will provide the basis for recommendations for future improvements. The committee’s goal is to make proposals to improve “the FAA's aircraft certification process, including recommendations on delegations of authority and training, and improvements to other certification processes. Topics for investigation include the FAA’s certification process and timelines, and the process under which the FAA delegates some certification and oversight work to aircraft manufacturers and their employees. (the process to 2017)

Joint Authorities Technical Review panel
“The JATR team will conduct a comprehensive review of the certification of the aircraft’s automated flight control system, The team will evaluate aspects of the 737 Max automated flight control system, including its design and pilots’ interaction with the system, to determine its compliance with all applicable regulations and to identify future enhancements that might be needed.” The JATR is led by veteran NTSB investigator, Chris Hart. (the MAX ~2017)

Technical Advisory Board (TAB)
Review Boeing’s proposed software fix. The board consists of experts from the FAA, U.S. Air Force, NASA and the DOT's Volpe National Transportation Systems Center that were not involved in any aspect of the Boeing 737 Max certification. The board’s recommendations will “directly inform the FAA’s decision concerning the 737 Max fleet’s safe return to service.”. The new panel is separate from two other existing reviews created by FAA.
“The TAB is charged with evaluating Boeing and FAA efforts related to Boeing’s software update and its integration into the 737 MAX flight control system. The TAB will identify issues where further investigation is required prior to FAA approval of the design change,” (the MAX fix 2019)
http://www.b737.org.uk/mcas.htm

Ray

Thanks for the great summation.

Both Reuters (linked earlier) and FG ( https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... ti-460595/ ) are saying that the JATR report is coming in a few weeks later than expected.

FG gives some help in understanding the impact:

"The JATR’s focus on the certification of the aircraft is separate from the ongoing efforts to safely return the aircraft to flight," the FAA says.

The panel's recommendations could affect both the future of how the FAA conducts safety certification and could influence how soon regulators from other nations return the aircraft to service. The FAA's certification of the Max does not require the panel to first finish its review, and Boeing still aims for the agency to clear the aircraft to fly in the fourth quarter.

And we have a statement from Boeing tucked in to the report:

Boeing is coordinating with the FAA on software modifications and safety training for pilots related to the automated flight controls unique from the earlier-generation 737NG, known as the manoeuvring characteristics augmentation system (MCAS). FAA safety technicians in June discovered a data processing issue with the aircraft separate from MCAS.

The airframer says in a statement that "work is progressing on software to address the additional requirement identified by the FAA on June 26, which will be submitted for certification with the main MCAS software package that is already complete".

So, we can confidently say:
  • The MCAS fix is ready for submission
  • The fix for the 'cosmic ray' issue identified on June 26th is in progress
  • Boeing still projects RTS in Q4
  • The JATR report does not gate FAA's decision about return to service (RTS)
  • The JATR report could influence other regulator's decisions about RTS
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OldAeroGuy
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 31, 2019 3:10 pm

uta999 wrote:
Polot wrote:
uta999 wrote:
So quite rightly, The NTSB is to review the whole new aircraft certification process to ensure it is fit for purpose. Something I mentioned weeks ago, but was not well received on A-Net.

You were suggesting the NTSB take over all aircraft certification going forward, which is very different than reviewing aircraft certification process/procedure and recommending changes.


That could very well be one of the outcomes of the review. The FAA could lose some of its current workload, with the staff transferring over to another organisation.


Extremely unlikely.

This would be a major change in mission and authority for the NTSB. In addition, the NTSB would be much less capable of assuming the Certification compared to the FAA.

If you want the FAA to take over the Certification work delegated to the OEM's, you're talking 5-10 years to build up the organization. Switching Certification to the NTSB would be more like 10-15 years. Plus massive appropriation changes/additions required in Congress. Ain't gonna happen.
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PW100
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 31, 2019 3:31 pm

Revelation wrote:
. . .
FG gives some help in understanding the impact:

"The JATR’s focus on the certification of the aircraft is separate from the ongoing efforts to safely return the aircraft to flight," the FAA says.

The panel's recommendations could affect both the future of how the FAA conducts safety certification and could influence how soon regulators from other nations return the aircraft to service. The FAA's certification of the Max does not require the panel to first finish its review, and Boeing still aims for the agency to clear the aircraft to fly in the fourth quarter.

So the panel's effort won't affect FAA certification, it is stated. But how about other certifications like, EASA, China etc? Would EASA be happy if FAA is happy to return to sky?
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PW100
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 31, 2019 3:33 pm

OldAeroGuy wrote:
uta999 wrote:
Polot wrote:
You were suggesting the NTSB take over all aircraft certification going forward, which is very different than reviewing aircraft certification process/procedure and recommending changes.


That could very well be one of the outcomes of the review. The FAA could lose some of its current workload, with the staff transferring over to another organisation.


Extremely unlikely.

This would be a major change in mission and authority for the NTSB. In addition, the NTSB would be much less capable of assuming the Certification compared to the FAA.

If you want the FAA to take over the Certification work delegated to the OEM's, you're talking 5-10 years to build up the organization. Switching Certification to the NTSB would be more like 10-15 years. Plus massive appropriation changes/additions required in Congress. Ain't gonna happen.


It would certainly go a long way in removing the conflict of interests within the FAA with their double (or even triple) hats . . .
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 31, 2019 4:07 pm

PW100 wrote:
So the panel's effort won't affect FAA certification, it is stated. But how about other certifications like, EASA, China etc? Would EASA be happy if FAA is happy to return to sky?

Yes, that is a factor, and I wrote "The JATR report could influence other regulator's decisions about RTS" so we are in agreement.

Boeing's strategy is obviously driven by the need to show steps toward world wide RTS.

They seem to be willing to take the FAA's authority to fly and go with it even if that angers other regulators.

FAA seems to be taking up the inclusion angle while positioning itself to go its own way and deal with the blowback.

PW100 wrote:
It would certainly go a long way in removing the conflict of interests within the FAA with their double (or even triple) hats . . .

I agree, and I also would like to see a return to the pre-2004 rules on delegation ( ref: https://www.politico.com/story/2019/03/ ... ht-1287902 ) but I don't see any motion in Congress towards doing any of these things.

Instead I see a Congress deep in the pockets of corporate interests, going back several administrations spanning decades.
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AVGeekNY
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 31, 2019 4:22 pm

Probably old news to most of you in this thread but this guy on YouTube, Blancolirio (a 777 pilot and A&P mechanic) has done some very informative vlogs on the Max issues and resolution. Check it out.
Last edited by AVGeekNY on Sat Aug 31, 2019 4:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 31, 2019 4:39 pm

Revelation wrote:
[
Boeing's strategy is obviously driven by the need to show steps toward world wide RTS.

They seem to be willing to take the FAA's authority to fly and go with it even if that angers other regulators.

Do they have a choice, EASA and China cannot clear the MAX to fly in the USA, only the FAA can, whichever side of the fence we sit, that is still the job of the FAA, it has not yet been outsourced by Congress.

Is it in Boeing's interest to get all regulators on the same page, yes, but ultimately they have to start at the top and that is satisfying the FAA.
How the FAA goes from there is up to them, that part is out of Boeing's hand, the FAA did decide to act as a facilitator and co-ordinate the requirements of all regulators, unfortunately, that does not mean that they will go along with the FAA, so at the end of the day, the FAA is still going to have to stand up and make a decision.
 
9Patch
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 31, 2019 4:43 pm

bob75013 wrote:
flyingphil wrote:
Boeing Fears 737 Worker Exodus in Tightest Job Market in Decades
By Julie Johnsson and Jeff Kearns
August 29, 2019, 5:00 AM EDT
In high demand, experienced engineers could switch industries
Planemaker considers temporary closure of Max factory lines;

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/arti ... in-decades

And yet we had a report on Wednesday that Boeing is planning to increase MAX production to 47/month in October, 52/month in February, and 57/month by summer 2020.

So which is it: close the Max lines or ramp up production?


It's both. Planemaker considers temporary closure of Max factory lines.

The company is studying whether to pause Max manufacturing for a short, clearly defined period of time, according to people familiar with the matter. They figure that approach would conserve cash and be less likely to trigger widespread layoffs than imposing another factory slowdown.


When the Max returns to service the plan is to ramp up production to meet demand.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 31, 2019 4:48 pm

Effective regulations assume a moderately adversarial relationship. I suspect that will be re-established. What I don't see, and perhaps someone could comment: In the old days the FAA appointed Boeing people as inspectors, inspectors reported back directly to the FAA, and if I understand, those inspectors had union protection preventing Boeing from firing or demoting inspectors. Will that model come back in the future, or is it outdated?
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ubeema
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 31, 2019 5:02 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
Effective regulations assume a moderately adversarial relationship. I suspect that will be re-established. What I don't see, and perhaps someone could comment: In the old days the FAA appointed Boeing people as inspectors, inspectors reported back directly to the FAA, and if I understand, those inspectors had union protection preventing Boeing from firing or demoting inspectors. Will that model come back in the future, or is it outdated?

Any hope for change will need to start with the issue of delegated inspectors deeply in the pocket of the OEM. Conflict of interest whether perceived or in fact has clearly rendered the certification process ineffective. Perhaps JATR review work cited upthread will shed light on this issues
 
bob75013
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 31, 2019 5:53 pm

9Patch wrote:
bob75013 wrote:
flyingphil wrote:
Boeing Fears 737 Worker Exodus in Tightest Job Market in Decades
By Julie Johnsson and Jeff Kearns
August 29, 2019, 5:00 AM EDT
In high demand, experienced engineers could switch industries
Planemaker considers temporary closure of Max factory lines;

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/arti ... in-decades

And yet we had a report on Wednesday that Boeing is planning to increase MAX production to 47/month in October, 52/month in February, and 57/month by summer 2020.

So which is it: close the Max lines or ramp up production?


It's both. Planemaker considers temporary closure of Max factory lines.

The company is studying whether to pause Max manufacturing for a short, clearly defined period of time, according to people familiar with the matter. They figure that approach would conserve cash and be less likely to trigger widespread layoffs than imposing another factory slowdown.


When the Max returns to service the plan is to ramp up production to meet demand.



It's both??????

So you're saying Boeing will "temporarily" halt production say in September (or maybe part of September), and then resume production in October -- with a plan to ramp the production rate to 47/month???

Really????????????????????????????????????

Consider how ridiculous that would be...
 
9Patch
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 31, 2019 6:44 pm

bob75013 wrote:
9Patch wrote:
bob75013 wrote:
And yet we had a report on Wednesday that Boeing is planning to increase MAX production to 47/month in October, 52/month in February, and 57/month by summer 2020.

So which is it: close the Max lines or ramp up production?


It's both. Planemaker considers temporary closure of Max factory lines.

The company is studying whether to pause Max manufacturing for a short, clearly defined period of time, according to people familiar with the matter. They figure that approach would conserve cash and be less likely to trigger widespread layoffs than imposing another factory slowdown.


When the Max returns to service the plan is to ramp up production to meet demand.



It's both??????

So you're saying Boeing will "temporarily" halt production say in September (or maybe part of September), and then resume production in October -- with a plan to ramp the production rate to 47/month???

Really????????????????????????????????????

Consider how ridiculous that would be...


Why is it ridiculous to have a contingency plan if the Max does not return to service in October?

from Bloomberg:

Boeing Co. aims to clear its 737 Max for flight as soon as October. But the planemaker also is plotting how it would respond to a far worse scenario: a grounding that stretches months longer.
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/arti ... in-decades


from American Machinist:

Sources say plan is to increase output in October and again in February, pending FAA clearance to resume commercial service
https://www.americanmachinist.com/news/ ... production
 
Checklist787
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:01 pm

oschkosch wrote:
https://www.livemint.com/companies/news/india-will-be-conservative-with-re-induction-of-grounded-boeing-737-max-planes-1567084014863.html

It seems that India regulators will not immediately follow any decision on ungrounding! :bigthumbsup:

“DGCA will be conservative and wait and watch, before taking any decision (on Boeing 737 MAX)," Kumar said. The suffering of Indian carriers because of the grounding of the planes has been limited as local airlines operate only a dozen such planes compared with about 400 used by airlines worldwide.

SpiceJet Ltd, one of the world’s biggest customers for the 737 MAX 8, has orders for 155 aircraft with purchase rights for 50 additional 737 MAX 8 and wide-body planes. The airline has taken delivery of 12 Boeing 737 MAX 8 planes so far, which are at present grounded.


https://edition.cnn.com/2019/08/30/busi ... index.html

United Airlines has pushed back its flight cancellations due to the Boeing 737 Max grounding until December 19.


Except that there are rumors.

If there is no justification, the airline
could put pressure :bigthumbsup:
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sgrow787
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Sep 01, 2019 6:37 am

You quoted:
XRAYretired wrote:
"The JATR team will conduct a comprehensive review of the certification of the aircraft’s automated flight control system, The team will evaluate aspects of the 737 Max automated flight control system, including its design and pilots’ interaction with the system, to determine its compliance with all applicable regulations and to identify future enhancements that might be needed."


So we can agree that Boeing has submitted its fix. And that the FAA has forwarded that fix to the JATR for review. Even though it was just a few days ago that the FAA said it was inquiring with airline operators for newbie Max pilots for design evaluation. If the JATR is interested in pilots "interaction with the [new] system", then why would the FAA forward the fix without that data (since its inconceivable they would have that information in just a few days).

Also, with such a quick turnaround (a month or so) for Boeing's FCC re-architecture, any ideas on what the fix could be? If the "data flow" issue was due to the loading of the cross-channel bus (my speculation up thread), I'm thinking they could have reprioritized other non-AOA data, reducing the periodic reading and transmission of that data, to allow the AOA data to fit without overflowing the channel. Otherwise, any real re-architecture would take 6 months or more IMO.
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oschkosch
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:02 am

sgrow787 wrote:
So we can agree that Boeing has submitted its fix. And that the FAA has forwarded that fix to the JATR for review.



Can we really? No where have I seen concrete info that a fix has actually been submitted?
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XRAYretired
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Sep 01, 2019 8:37 am

sgrow787 wrote:
You quoted:
XRAYretired wrote:
"The JATR team will conduct a comprehensive review of the certification of the aircraft’s automated flight control system, The team will evaluate aspects of the 737 Max automated flight control system, including its design and pilots’ interaction with the system, to determine its compliance with all applicable regulations and to identify future enhancements that might be needed."


So we can agree that Boeing has submitted its fix. And that the FAA has forwarded that fix to the JATR for review. Even though it was just a few days ago that the FAA said it was inquiring with airline operators for newbie Max pilots for design evaluation. If the JATR is interested in pilots "interaction with the [new] system", then why would the FAA forward the fix without that data (since its inconceivable they would have that information in just a few days).

Also, with such a quick turnaround (a month or so) for Boeing's FCC re-architecture, any ideas on what the fix could be? If the "data flow" issue was due to the loading of the cross-channel bus (my speculation up thread), I'm thinking they could have reprioritized other non-AOA data, reducing the periodic reading and transmission of that data, to allow the AOA data to fit without overflowing the channel. Otherwise, any real re-architecture would take 6 months or more IMO.

MCAS fix was essentially completed in the ~April timeframe. Formal submission was delayed by a Flaps System reported 'catastrophic' categorised problem, also probably essentially completed likely in the ~June timeframe. Formal submission was again delayed due to the 'BitFlip' 'catastrophic' categorised problem and we await formal submission following completion of the fix characterised by reportedly architecture change to Active/Standby and Fail Safe.

As per the quote, I believe taken from the officially stated scope, JATR was to review the control systems and certification pre-fix. Reports since have suggested that they have actually spent some time looking at the fix due to Boeing failure to disclose data related to the original certification (one presumes). Its the TAB that was officially charged with shadowing the fix certification.

The understanding from reports is that the exercise involving 'newbie' pilots is in regard to evaluation of revised procedures and training requirements and not directly related to the testing of the design changes.

I have previously posted thoughts on the architecture change floated, that were not well received by yourself, I have no desire to repeat them. Suffice to say, it is clear, that whatever the nature of the change, it is possible it has been under test for some time and final submission is expected in the September/October timeframe. Peter Lemme's expectation as to the scope would seem to be more extensive than that you suggest.

Ray
 
sgrow787
Posts: 447
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Sep 01, 2019 8:55 am

oschkosch wrote:
sgrow787 wrote:
So we can agree that Boeing has submitted its fix. And that the FAA has forwarded that fix to the JATR for review.



Can we really? No where have I seen concrete info that a fix has actually been submitted?


From Reuters (the "blue-ribbon panel" is referring to the JATR):

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ethi ... SKCN1VK2B4

"The Federal Aviation Administration said on Friday a blue-ribbon panel of experts around the world will need a few more weeks to finish its review into the Boeing 737 MAX certification"
Just one sensor,
Oh just one se-en-sor,
Just one sensor,
Ooh ooh oo-ooh
Oo-oo-ooh.
 
sgrow787
Posts: 447
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Sep 01, 2019 8:56 am

Revelation wrote:
Boeing Commercial Airplanes Chief Engineer John Hamilton told Reuters that Boeing and European rival Airbus SE meet several times a year to share data on safety.

“The next time we get together, I am sure we will be sharing learnings from the MAX accidents,” Hamilton said.

So there's an upside to the duopoly after all.


But Boeing nor Airbus are going to share any safety issues that might delay existing certification, or that might impact a new certification for a recent EIS.
Just one sensor,
Oh just one se-en-sor,
Just one sensor,
Ooh ooh oo-ooh
Oo-oo-ooh.
 
WIederling
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Sep 01, 2019 9:16 am

sgrow787 wrote:
oschkosch wrote:
sgrow787 wrote:
So we can agree that Boeing has submitted its fix. And that the FAA has forwarded that fix to the JATR for review.



Can we really? No where have I seen concrete info that a fix has actually been submitted?


From Reuters (the "blue-ribbon panel" is referring to the JATR):

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ethi ... SKCN1VK2B4

"The Federal Aviation Administration said on Friday a blue-ribbon panel of experts around the world will need a few more weeks to finish its review into the Boeing 737 MAX certification"


What kind of grocking quality can we expect from these "on the run" created panels bound by rainbow colored ribbons ? :-)
Murphy is an optimist
 
oschkosch
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:29 am

sgrow787 wrote:
oschkosch wrote:
sgrow787 wrote:
So we can agree that Boeing has submitted its fix. And that the FAA has forwarded that fix to the JATR for review.



Can we really? No where have I seen concrete info that a fix has actually been submitted?


From Reuters (the "blue-ribbon panel" is referring to the JATR):

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ethi ... SKCN1VK2B4

"The Federal Aviation Administration said on Friday a blue-ribbon panel of experts around the world will need a few more weeks to finish its review into the Boeing 737 MAX certification"
ummm but the JATR is looking at the previous certification process of the max. Not at the fix??


The Joint Authorities Technical Review is chaired by former National Transportation Safety Board Chairman Christopher Hart, and the FAA said its focus on the certification of the aircraft “is separate from the ongoing efforts to safely return the aircraft to flight.”

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sgrow787
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Sep 01, 2019 12:01 pm

XRAYretired wrote:
sgrow787 wrote:
You quoted:
XRAYretired wrote:
"The JATR team will conduct a comprehensive review of the certification of the aircraft’s automated flight control system, The team will evaluate aspects of the 737 Max automated flight control system, including its design and pilots’ interaction with the system, to determine its compliance with all applicable regulations and to identify future enhancements that might be needed."


So we can agree that Boeing has submitted its fix. And that the FAA has forwarded that fix to the JATR for review. Even though it was just a few days ago that the FAA said it was inquiring with airline operators for newbie Max pilots for design evaluation. If the JATR is interested in pilots "interaction with the [new] system", then why would the FAA forward the fix without that data (since its inconceivable they would have that information in just a few days).

Also, with such a quick turnaround (a month or so) for Boeing's FCC re-architecture, any ideas on what the fix could be? If the "data flow" issue was due to the loading of the cross-channel bus (my speculation up thread), I'm thinking they could have reprioritized other non-AOA data, reducing the periodic reading and transmission of that data, to allow the AOA data to fit without overflowing the channel. Otherwise, any real re-architecture would take 6 months or more IMO.

MCAS fix was essentially completed in the ~April timeframe. Formal submission was delayed by a Flaps System reported 'catastrophic' categorised problem, also probably essentially completed likely in the ~June timeframe. Formal submission was again delayed due to the 'BitFlip' 'catastrophic' categorised problem and we await formal submission following completion of the fix characterised by reportedly architecture change to Active/Standby and Fail Safe.

As per the quote, I believe taken from the officially stated scope, JATR was to review the control systems and certification pre-fix. Reports since have suggested that they have actually spent some time looking at the fix due to Boeing failure to disclose data related to the original certification (one presumes). Its the TAB that was officially charged with shadowing the fix certification.

The understanding from reports is that the exercise involving 'newbie' pilots is in regard to evaluation of revised procedures and training requirements and not directly related to the testing of the design changes.


Nonsense. I can't think of a single reason why you would want pilot experience data unless it was post-fix flight control system.

I have previously posted thoughts on the architecture change floated, that were not well received by yourself, I have no desire to repeat them. Suffice to say, it is clear, that whatever the nature of the change, it is possible it has been under test for some time and final submission is expected in the September/October timeframe. Peter Lemme's expectation as to the scope would seem to be more extensive than that you suggest.

Ray


I did have a reread of Seattle Times bit flipping "cosmic ray" piece:

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... -controls/

The piece only goes into 2 of the 5 reported bits that were flipped:
- MCAS engaged
- Horiz stab AND

Since the testing was done on MCAS 2.0, one can probably assume the remaining 3 bits were:
- AOA disagree
- Flaps UP
- Autopilot engaged

And two scenarios (of the 33 total that were tried) were:
- MCAS engaged flipped to ON
- MCAS engaged flipped to OFF, and stab AND flipped ON
- repeat the above two over prolonged period

As for the fix, the Seattle Times article says:

“For the MAX, the new MCAS was simply added to an existing 737 flight control system called the Speed Trim System, which was introduced with this one-channel computer architecture on the older model 737-300 in the 1980s.
With the proposed dual-channel configuration, both computers will be used to activate the automated flight controls. They will each take input from a wholly independent set of sensors (air speed, angle of attack, altitude and so on) and compare outputs. If the outputs disagree, indicating a computer fault, the computers will initiate no action and just let the pilot fly manually.”

So it seems they are achieving two-sensor redundancy by comparing outputs from AOA-L-to-FCC-L and AOA-R-to-FCC-R, and then having AOA-L and AOA-R being forwarded to FCC outputs for compare. So in essence, the changes look like:

(1) Forward the AOA-L sensor data to FCC-L outputs
(2) Forward the AOA-R sensor data to FCC-R outputs
(3) Route the outputs (through cross-channel or to separate computer?) for comparison
- AOA-L
- AOA-R
- FCC-L Stab AND
- FCC-R Stab AND
- FCC-L MCAS Engaged
- FCC-R MCAS Engaged
(4) Deactivate MCAS if things don't compare
(5) Illuminate AOA disagree if things don't compare

The one question might be: where did they come up with cosmic rays**? Since sensor data is usually read on a cyclic schedule, any bit flip would be reset on the next processing cycle. It's possible that on old hardware, the cycle period is slow enough that one bad cycle could cause a significant delay to risk the "one second" the FAA requires from a pilot responding to a catastrophic event when in manual flying mode (3 seconds if in autopilot mode).

**Or is this just another means by which Boeing tries to mitigate the risk by saying the situation will rarely happen to begin with?
Last edited by sgrow787 on Sun Sep 01, 2019 12:28 pm, edited 3 times in total.
Just one sensor,
Oh just one se-en-sor,
Just one sensor,
Ooh ooh oo-ooh
Oo-oo-ooh.
 
sgrow787
Posts: 447
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Sep 01, 2019 12:19 pm

oschkosch wrote:
sgrow787 wrote:
oschkosch wrote:


Can we really? No where have I seen concrete info that a fix has actually been submitted?


From Reuters (the "blue-ribbon panel" is referring to the JATR):

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ethi ... SKCN1VK2B4

"The Federal Aviation Administration said on Friday a blue-ribbon panel of experts around the world will need a few more weeks to finish its review into the Boeing 737 MAX certification"
ummm but the JATR is looking at the previous certification process of the max. Not at the fix??


The Joint Authorities Technical Review is chaired by former National Transportation Safety Board Chairman Christopher Hart, and the FAA said its focus on the certification of the aircraft “is separate from the ongoing efforts to safely return the aircraft to flight.”

Gesendet von meinem SM-G950F mit Tapatalk


I find it hard to conceive that Boeing or the FAA would divulge the original (questionable) certification records and data to anyone except the DoT, DOJ, FBI through subpoena.
Just one sensor,
Oh just one se-en-sor,
Just one sensor,
Ooh ooh oo-ooh
Oo-oo-ooh.
 
XRAYretired
Posts: 870
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Sep 01, 2019 12:28 pm

sgrow787 wrote:
XRAYretired wrote:
sgrow787 wrote:
You quoted:


So we can agree that Boeing has submitted its fix. And that the FAA has forwarded that fix to the JATR for review. Even though it was just a few days ago that the FAA said it was inquiring with airline operators for newbie Max pilots for design evaluation. If the JATR is interested in pilots "interaction with the [new] system", then why would the FAA forward the fix without that data (since its inconceivable they would have that information in just a few days).

Also, with such a quick turnaround (a month or so) for Boeing's FCC re-architecture, any ideas on what the fix could be? If the "data flow" issue was due to the loading of the cross-channel bus (my speculation up thread), I'm thinking they could have reprioritized other non-AOA data, reducing the periodic reading and transmission of that data, to allow the AOA data to fit without overflowing the channel. Otherwise, any real re-architecture would take 6 months or more IMO.

MCAS fix was essentially completed in the ~April timeframe. Formal submission was delayed by a Flaps System reported 'catastrophic' categorised problem, also probably essentially completed likely in the ~June timeframe. Formal submission was again delayed due to the 'BitFlip' 'catastrophic' categorised problem and we await formal submission following completion of the fix characterised by reportedly architecture change to Active/Standby and Fail Safe.

As per the quote, I believe taken from the officially stated scope, JATR was to review the control systems and certification pre-fix. Reports since have suggested that they have actually spent some time looking at the fix due to Boeing failure to disclose data related to the original certification (one presumes). Its the TAB that was officially charged with shadowing the fix certification.

The understanding from reports is that the exercise involving 'newbie' pilots is in regard to evaluation of revised procedures and training requirements and not directly related to the testing of the design changes.


Nonsense. I can't think of a single reason why you would want pilot experience data unless it was post-fix flight control system.

I have previously posted thoughts on the architecture change floated, that were not well received by yourself, I have no desire to repeat them. Suffice to say, it is clear, that whatever the nature of the change, it is possible it has been under test for some time and final submission is expected in the September/October timeframe. Peter Lemme's expectation as to the scope would seem to be more extensive than that you suggest.

Ray


I did have a reread of Seattle Times bit flipping "cosmic ray" piece:

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... -controls/

The piece only goes into 2 of the 5 reported bits that were flipped:
- MCAS engaged
- Horiz stab AND

Since the testing was done on MCAS 2.0, one can probably assume the remaining 3 bits were:
- AOA disagree
- Flaps UP
- Autopilot engaged

And two scenarios (of the 33 total that were tried) were:
- MCAS engaged flipped to ON
- MCAS engaged flipped to OFF, and stab AND flipped ON
- repeat the above two over prolonged period

As for the fix, the Seattle Times article says:

“For the MAX, the new MCAS was simply added to an existing 737 flight control system called the Speed Trim System, which was introduced with this one-channel computer architecture on the older model 737-300 in the 1980s.
With the proposed dual-channel configuration, both computers will be used to activate the automated flight controls. They will each take input from a wholly independent set of sensors (air speed, angle of attack, altitude and so on) and compare outputs. If the outputs disagree, indicating a computer fault, the computers will initiate no action and just let the pilot fly manually.”

So it seems they are achieving two-sensor redundancy by comparing outputs from AOA-L-to-FCC-L and AOA-R-to-FCC-R, and then having AOA-L and AOA-R being forwarded to FCC outputs for compare. So in essence, the changes look like:
(1) Forward AOA-L sensor data to FCC-L outputs
(2) Forward AOA-R sensor data to FCC-R outputs
(3) Route the outputs (through cross-channel or to separate computer?) for comparison
(4) Deactivate MCAS if things don't compare
(5) Illuminate AOA disagree if things don't compare

The one question might be: where did they come up with cosmic rays**? Since sensor data is usually read on a cyclic schedule, any bit flip would be reset on the next processing cycle. It's possible that on old hardware, the cycle period is slow enough that one bad cycle could cause a significant delay to risk the "one second" the FAA requires from a pilot responding to a catastrophic event when in manual flying mode (3 seconds if in autopilot mode).

**Or is this just another means by which Boeing tries to mitigate the risk by saying the situation will rarely happen to begin with?

There was no reason to use my post as an excuse for a rant. You could have just posted it anyway. As suspected, your reply was just a means to an end and exactly why I just restated what has been reported.

All I did was to copy the quotations of the scopes of the review bodies in the first place.

Good luck with your thesis.
 
oschkosch
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Sep 01, 2019 12:51 pm

sgrow787 wrote:
oschkosch wrote:
sgrow787 wrote:

From Reuters (the "blue-ribbon panel" is referring to the JATR):

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ethi ... SKCN1VK2B4

"The Federal Aviation Administration said on Friday a blue-ribbon panel of experts around the world will need a few more weeks to finish its review into the Boeing 737 MAX certification"
ummm but the JATR is looking at the previous certification process of the max. Not at the fix??


The Joint Authorities Technical Review is chaired by former National Transportation Safety Board Chairman Christopher Hart, and the FAA said its focus on the certification of the aircraft “is separate from the ongoing efforts to safely return the aircraft to flight.”

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I find it hard to conceive that Boeing or the FAA would divulge the original (questionable) certification records and data to anyone except the DoT, DOJ, FBI through subpoena.
Well, I only posted what the article says ;-) I didn't ask you to believe it.

Show me where it has been stated that the fix has been submitted.

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dangle
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Sep 01, 2019 4:26 pm

Looks like American has given up on Thanksgiving MAX flights, but maybe hoping to join United in scheduling them over the Christmas holiday (in contrast to Southwest who appear to have given up on scheduling the MAX until 2020).


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... nd=premium
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Sep 01, 2019 4:37 pm

oschkosch wrote:
Show me where it has been stated that the fix has been submitted.

It has not been submitted.

The error starts with:

sgrow787 wrote:
You quoted:
XRAYretired wrote:
"The JATR team will conduct a comprehensive review of the certification of the aircraft’s automated flight control system, The team will evaluate aspects of the 737 Max automated flight control system, including its design and pilots’ interaction with the system, to determine its compliance with all applicable regulations and to identify future enhancements that might be needed."

So we can agree that Boeing has submitted its fix. And that the FAA has forwarded that fix to the JATR for review.

This is an erroneous conclusion.

You yourself already corrected this:

oschkosch wrote:
ummm but the JATR is looking at the previous certification process of the max. Not at the fix??

The Joint Authorities Technical Review is chaired by former National Transportation Safety Board Chairman Christopher Hart, and the FAA said its focus on the certification of the aircraft “is separate from the ongoing efforts to safely return the aircraft to flight.”


I already provided a statement by Boeing:

Revelation wrote:
And we have a statement from Boeing tucked in to the report:

Boeing is coordinating with the FAA on software modifications and safety training for pilots related to the automated flight controls unique from the earlier-generation 737NG, known as the manoeuvring characteristics augmentation system (MCAS). FAA safety technicians in June discovered a data processing issue with the aircraft separate from MCAS.

The airframer says in a statement that "work is progressing on software to address the additional requirement identified by the FAA on June 26, which will be submitted for certification with the main MCAS software package that is already complete".

So, we can confidently say:
  • The MCAS fix is ready for submission
  • The fix for the 'cosmic ray' issue identified on June 26th is in progress
  • Boeing still projects RTS in Q4
  • The JATR report does not gate FAA's decision about return to service (RTS)
  • The JATR report could influence other regulator's decisions about RTS

In summary, a Boeing spokesman tells us the MCAS fix is ready for submission, the 'cosmic ray' fix is in progress, neither have been submitted.
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DWC
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Sep 01, 2019 5:44 pm

uta999 wrote:
So quite rightly, The NTSB is to review the whole new aircraft certification process to ensure it is fit for purpose. Something I mentioned weeks ago, but was not well received on A-Net.

People don't like to reconsider their believes & clichés.
They also don't like to think for themselves & will first pat each other's shoulders.
You will thus be contradicted, sneered at, mocked, flamed, put to the stake before a reality check :crowded:
I am glad the NTSB steps in, looks so bad as in a Banana republic. The whole Boeing saga's gone bananas, monkey business.
Just appalling from the US side. One has to thank China & the EU for having spotted the worm in the Apple.
 
IADFCO
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Sep 01, 2019 6:52 pm

sgrow787 wrote:
I find it hard to conceive that Boeing or the FAA would divulge the original (questionable) certification records and data to anyone except the DoT, DOJ, FBI through subpoena.


In the US anybody can file a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA), https://www.faa.gov/foia/. I suspect that at least some certification records are going to be FOIAble. For example, I would be interested in knowing whether the certification process (for both MCAS 1.0 and 2.0) included flight tests with entry into and recovery from stall, and flight tests with MCAS 2.0 inoperative, and if so, which specific tests and what the results were. Some or all of this information might already be (or will be) in the public domain, so a FOIA request might not be necessary, but if not, I would think that it's FOIAble.

For example, one could be asking for time histories of inputs and outputs, e.g., for a given time history of control inputs delta(t) in a certain aircraft configuration and flight condition, what are, say, the time histories u(t), v(t), w(t), etc.? I'm an engineer and not an attorney, but in my opinion this information should not involve any Intellectual Property (IP) protection. It is what it is, and anybody with access to a MAX could go up and get those data. How Boeing achieved that particular response, yes, I would think it would involve IP issue (e.g., the flight control laws) and might be protected.
 
sgrow787
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 12:02 am

oschkosch wrote:
sgrow787 wrote:
oschkosch wrote:
ummm but the JATR is looking at the previous certification process of the max. Not at the fix??


The Joint Authorities Technical Review is chaired by former National Transportation Safety Board Chairman Christopher Hart, and the FAA said its focus on the certification of the aircraft “is separate from the ongoing efforts to safely return the aircraft to flight.”

Gesendet von meinem SM-G950F mit Tapatalk


I find it hard to conceive that Boeing or the FAA would divulge the original (questionable) certification records and data to anyone except the DoT, DOJ, FBI through subpoena.
Well, I only posted what the article says ;-) I didn't ask you to believe it.

Show me where it has been stated that the fix has been submitted.

Gesendet von meinem SM-G950F mit Tapatalk


From Aerotime News on Apr 23, 2019:
https://www.aerotime.aero/clement.charp ... for-review

"Named the Joint Authorities Technical Review (JATR), the committee also includes aviation authorities from Brazil, Canada, China, United Arab Emirates, Indonesia, Japan, and Singapore, as well as NASA. Some of them had previously announced that they would require to actively participate in the review. Evaluating the modifications of the 737 MAX should take about 90 days."

Obviously this is referring to the initial Boeing fix that was said to be in the works at that time (in April). So by "pre-fix" in others comments here, they must have been referring to before the present fix, not pre-crash certification.

Also from FAA's page, 5/23/2019 entry, they never state any plans to have JATR review the pre-crash certification:
https://www.faa.gov/news/updates/?newsId=93206

"How we plan to certify Boeing’s MCAS changes and how we’ve been sharing information with all the regulators here."

Also, it seems "blue-ribbon panel of experts" is being used loosely by some sources:

From Reuters source provided by Revelation above, it is apparently referring to the JATR:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ethi ... SKCN1VK2B4
"The Federal Aviation Administration said on Friday a blue-ribbon panel of experts around the world will need a few more weeks to finish its review into the Boeing 737 MAX certification."

Yet from an earlier Reuters source, it is a small 4-person group:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ethi ... SKCN1RY1ER
"U.S. Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao said on Monday she named four experts to a blue-ribbon committee to review the Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA) aircraft certification process..."
Specifically tasked to "review the 737 MAX 800 certification process from 2012 to 2017, and recommend improvements to the certification process".
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mzlin
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 12:36 am

More bad news for Boeing from the WSJ: https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-delays-could-keep-boeing-737-max-grounded-into-holiday-travel-season-11567376957

Fair-use excerpt: "The latest complication in the long-running saga, these officials said, stems from a Boeing briefing in August that was cut short by regulators from the U.S., Europe, Brazil and elsewhere, who complained that the plane maker had failed to provide technical details and answer specific questions about modifications in the operation of MAX flight-control computers...Boeing as a result now has to resubmit briefing documents...The upshot, the people said, is likely to be several more weeks of delay..The meetings and the fallout haven’t been reported before."

So this seems to be new news. One could read this as Boeing leadership not being proactive enough in being transparent, but it's also possible they were going to get pushback no matter how much information they submitted. Only insiders would know if more could have been done.
 
ArgentoSystems
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 2:30 am

mzlin wrote:
So this seems to be new news. One could read this as Boeing leadership not being proactive enough in being transparent, but it's also possible they were going to get pushback no matter how much information they submitted. Only insiders would know if more could have been done.

Yes, saw that, first piece of new information in a long time, albeit from barely trustworthy (the source is unknown). They will naturally get pushbacks, but that is just to be expected. Yes, standard for Boeing has changed. They failed to make MAX meet "barely good enough" standard, and now they need to meet "no obvious flaws" standard. That's just new reality for them.
 
WIederling
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 6:50 am

ArgentoSystems wrote:
mzlin wrote:
So this seems to be new news. One could read this as Boeing leadership not being proactive enough in being transparent, but it's also possible they were going to get pushback no matter how much information they submitted. Only insiders would know if more could have been done.

Yes, saw that, first piece of new information in a long time, albeit from barely trustworthy (the source is unknown). They will naturally get pushbacks, but that is just to be expected. Yes, standard for Boeing has changed. They failed to make MAX meet "barely good enough" standard, and now they need to meet "no obvious flaws" standard. That's just new reality for them.


Boeing appears still stuck in the established "certification over tea" mode. Everything is fixable via inserting the right cues in media, politics and spreading the word via astro turfers.

Will they be able to reestablish their historic MoO or will things stay changed, continue to change in the right direction?
The worked their magic for the 787.
The grounding back then did not cause a major resharpening of FAA certification methods/tools.
Murphy is an optimist
 
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PixelFlight
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 7:09 am

mzlin wrote:
More bad news for Boeing from the WSJ: https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-delays-could-keep-boeing-737-max-grounded-into-holiday-travel-season-11567376957

Fair-use excerpt: "The latest complication in the long-running saga, these officials said, stems from a Boeing briefing in August that was cut short by regulators from the U.S., Europe, Brazil and elsewhere, who complained that the plane maker had failed to provide technical details and answer specific questions about modifications in the operation of MAX flight-control computers...Boeing as a result now has to resubmit briefing documents...The upshot, the people said, is likely to be several more weeks of delay..The meetings and the fallout haven’t been reported before."

So this seems to be new news. One could read this as Boeing leadership not being proactive enough in being transparent, but it's also possible they were going to get pushback no matter how much information they submitted. Only insiders would know if more could have been done.

While it look like a bad new for Boeing in the short term, I view this as a good new in the long term from the safety point of view, including for Boeing. This tend to confirm that something really need to be fixed into Boeing regarding the safety certification of the 737-8/9 MAX.
:stirthepot: 737-8 MAX: "For all speeds higher than 220 Kts and trim set at a value of 2.5 units, the difficulity level of turning the manual trim wheel was level A (trim wheel not movable)." :stirthepot:
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 7:39 am

WIederling wrote:
ArgentoSystems wrote:
mzlin wrote:
So this seems to be new news. One could read this as Boeing leadership not being proactive enough in being transparent, but it's also possible they were going to get pushback no matter how much information they submitted. Only insiders would know if more could have been done.

Yes, saw that, first piece of new information in a long time, albeit from barely trustworthy (the source is unknown). They will naturally get pushbacks, but that is just to be expected. Yes, standard for Boeing has changed. They failed to make MAX meet "barely good enough" standard, and now they need to meet "no obvious flaws" standard. That's just new reality for them.


Boeing appears still stuck in the established "certification over tea" mode. Everything is fixable via inserting the right cues in media, politics and spreading the word via astro turfers.

Will they be able to reestablish their historic MoO or will things stay changed, continue to change in the right direction?
The worked their magic for the 787.
The grounding back then did not cause a major resharpening of FAA certification methods/tools.


787 was using a new technology with those big battery packs, this was a normal problem for a new technology, totally different to the MAX problem.
 
asdf
Posts: 693
Joined: Tue Mar 18, 2014 12:03 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 8:23 am

IADFCO wrote:
sgrow787 wrote:
I find it hard to conceive that Boeing or the FAA would divulge the original (questionable) certification records and data to anyone except the DoT, DOJ, FBI through subpoena.

For example, one could be asking for time histories of inputs and outputs, e.g., for a given time history of control inputs delta(t) in a certain aircraft configuration and flight condition, what are, say, the time histories u(t), v(t), w(t), etc.? .....


i think they do not know it

they simply see in the data that the stab didnt move
but they dont know what was the reason
- didnt the crew trim (electric)
- did the crew trim but didnt the flightcomputer powered the stab
- did the crew trim and did the flightcomputer powered the stab but it didnt move (because of high load)
 
JonesNL
Posts: 149
Joined: Tue Aug 06, 2019 2:40 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 8:52 am

mzlin wrote:
More bad news for Boeing from the WSJ: https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-delays-could-keep-boeing-737-max-grounded-into-holiday-travel-season-11567376957

....

So this seems to be new news. One could read this as Boeing leadership not being proactive enough in being transparent, but it's also possible they were going to get pushback no matter how much information they submitted. Only insiders would know if more could have been done.


Was to be expected. Everyone is giving a push-back to regain the confidence of the flying public.

It is telling though that in the same article Boeing is still communicating an RTS of October. Not that smart as I am sensing that the FAA will be reluctant to certify the MAX before other regulators send in their findings or they risk looking really bad if this panel exposes findings that the FAA missed. See the following line:

FAA spokesman said the agency “continues to follow a thorough process, not a prescribed timeline, for returning the aircraft to passenger service.” Referring to various U.S. and international safety reviews under way, he added, “While the agency’s certification processes are well-established and have consistently produced safe aircraft designs, we welcome the scrutiny from these experts and look forward to their findings.”
 
User avatar
PixelFlight
Posts: 1018
Joined: Thu Nov 08, 2018 11:09 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 9:00 am

JonesNL wrote:
FAA spokesman said the agency “continues to follow a thorough process, not a prescribed timeline, for returning the aircraft to passenger service.” Referring to various U.S. and international safety reviews under way, he added, “While the agency’s certification processes are well-established and have consistently produced safe aircraft designs, we welcome the scrutiny from these experts and look forward to their findings.”

I wonder if there findings would be published to the public.
:stirthepot: 737-8 MAX: "For all speeds higher than 220 Kts and trim set at a value of 2.5 units, the difficulity level of turning the manual trim wheel was level A (trim wheel not movable)." :stirthepot:
 
WIederling
Posts: 9291
Joined: Sun Sep 13, 2015 2:15 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 9:12 am

seahawk wrote:
787 was using a new technology with those big battery packs, this was a normal problem for a new technology, totally different to the MAX problem.


Nice opinion. but wrong.

Marginally new tech.
Chemistry decision probably going back to the Sonic Cruiser and not well aged.

But what brought this to a boil was lack of supervision and
a haphazard approach to this new tech. careless.

Just the same as on the MAX: you just don't do it that way if you are a good engineer.
( and enough precedent around to borrow from. )
Murphy is an optimist
 
JonesNL
Posts: 149
Joined: Tue Aug 06, 2019 2:40 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 9:14 am

PixelFlight wrote:
I wonder if there findings would be published to the public.


Well, the EASA requests were also not published to the public and somehow made it to all the papers in the world. If I were the FAA I would'nt bet that the findings will be kept under the rug...
 
User avatar
par13del
Posts: 10259
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Mon Sep 02, 2019 1:47 pm

WIederling wrote:
seahawk wrote:
787 was using a new technology with those big battery packs, this was a normal problem for a new technology, totally different to the MAX problem.


Nice opinion. but wrong.

Marginally new tech.
Chemistry decision probably going back to the Sonic Cruiser and not well aged.

But what brought this to a boil was lack of supervision and
a haphazard approach to this new tech. careless.

If the 787 project, most did not care since most of it was Boeing loosing money and time by outsourcing to break unions and becoming a facilitator versus an aircraft builder.
I guess we should have expected what was to come once you start getting out of the day to day details of designing and building aircraft.
 

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