rheinwaldner
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Sep 13, 2019 1:15 pm

oschkosch wrote:
So there we have it, Boeing CEO now saying RTS "should" be in November... I do wonder when he will say December, then 1st quarter 2020 and so on.

So much for early 4th quarter! And also confirms possible staggered RTS.

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... countries/

Boeing chairman and chief executive Dennis Muilenburg on Wednesday reiterated his projection that, despite concerns publicly expressed by Europe’s air safety regulator, the 737 MAX should begin to return to service around November.

However, he conceded that lack of alignment among international regulatory bodies could mean that the grounded jet may first resume flying in the United States, with other major countries following later.


Gesendet von meinem SM-G950F mit Tapatalk

Why seems the FAA much more relaxed testing the MAX issues? It smells, as if they fear the outcome of too much testing. It really gives the impression, that nothing has changed in regards of the huge problem, which was the root cause of the MAX grounding (flawed design whitewashed by flawed certification processes).
I really wonder, why the FAA did not insist on test flights with the MCAS switched off too.
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Sep 13, 2019 1:23 pm

rheinwaldner wrote:
Why seems the FAA much more relaxed testing the MAX issues? It smells, as if they fear the outcome of too much testing. It really gives the impression, that nothing has changed in regards of the huge problem, which was the root cause of the MAX grounding (flawed design whitewashed by flawed certification processes).
I really wonder, why the FAA did not insist on test flights with the MCAS switched off too.

It's far from clear FAA is doing "relaxed testing".

I've heard various numbers, but one was Boeing claiming it has done 200 MCAS related flight tests.

And clearly Boeing has done flights with MCAS off, if nothing else to see exactly where MCAS needed to kick in.

EASA is IMO largely duplicating efforts for the reason Patrick Ky suggests, it's largely lost confidence in FAA, which is within its purview to decide.

It is also within FAA's purview to decide it has confidence the 737 is ready for RTS without EASA's concurrence.
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XRAYretired
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Sep 13, 2019 1:28 pm

rheinwaldner wrote:
oschkosch wrote:
So there we have it, Boeing CEO now saying RTS "should" be in November... I do wonder when he will say December, then 1st quarter 2020 and so on.

So much for early 4th quarter! And also confirms possible staggered RTS.

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... countries/

Boeing chairman and chief executive Dennis Muilenburg on Wednesday reiterated his projection that, despite concerns publicly expressed by Europe’s air safety regulator, the 737 MAX should begin to return to service around November.

However, he conceded that lack of alignment among international regulatory bodies could mean that the grounded jet may first resume flying in the United States, with other major countries following later.


Gesendet von meinem SM-G950F mit Tapatalk

Why seems the FAA much more relaxed testing the MAX issues? It smells, as if they fear the outcome of too much testing. It really gives the impression, that nothing has changed in regards of the huge problem, which was the root cause of the MAX grounding (flawed design whitewashed by flawed certification processes).
I really wonder, why the FAA did not insist on test flights with the MCAS switched off too.

Whist not dismissing your opinion necessarily, we don't actually know what testing has been done in the 600+ test flights and it would not surprising if it included testing MCAS off in climbing turns etc, nor if such tests will be performed during the FAA certification tests or not since none is of it published

Ray
.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Sep 13, 2019 3:16 pm

RickNRoll wrote:
Yet in hindsight we know that Boeing made the wrong decision. They did not assess the risks adequately. If the 737 had been a comparable plane to the A320 in technology, that would have been a reasonable conclusion to come to. The 737 wasn't comparable. Employee feedback would have already been telling them that the risks were increasing, quite loudly.

Employee feedback also would have told them whatever they were thinking was going to be the 2011 version of NSA was risks every where you look. It's unreasonable to expect decision makers to predict a FUBAR like MCAS while ignoring they did not predict FUBARs like the A380 wiring FUBAR or the 787 everything FUBAR. Hindsight only has limited value.
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bob75013
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Sep 13, 2019 3:27 pm

"SEATTLE/CHICAGO/PARIS (Reuters) - As Boeing Co sets its sights on winning approval to fly its 737 MAX within weeks, following a six-month safety ban, engineers around the world are rolling out plans for one of the biggest logistical operations in civil aviation history.

Inside Boeing's 737 factory at Renton, Washington, south of Seattle, workers have pre-assembled dedicated tool kits for technicians tasked with installing software updates and readying over 500 jets that have sat idle for months, insiders said.

Across the globe, Boeing teams are hammering out delivery schedules - and financial terms - with airline customers who have been forced to cancel flights, cut routes and fly aging jetliners while they await the MAX's return.

Although regulators must still approve the jets for flight, Boeing and airline staff and executives say the world's largest planemaker is weeks into an elaborate blueprint for production, maintenance and delivery that one source said involves 1,500 engineers - as many as it takes to design a small new jet."

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/crisis-h ... 18461.html

Now why would Boeing be doing these things if it did not expect the grounding to soon be lifted?

There is action accompanying the CEO's words that he expects MAXs to be flying in 4Q, and that is why Boeing's stock price is up $50/share in two weeks despite the 777 and KC46 setbacks.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Sep 13, 2019 5:02 pm

rheinwaldner wrote:
Why seems the FAA much more relaxed testing the MAX issues? It smells, as if they fear the outcome of too much testing. It really gives the impression, that nothing has changed in regards of the huge problem, which was the root cause of the MAX grounding (flawed design whitewashed by flawed certification processes).
I really wonder, why the FAA did not insist on test flights with the MCAS switched off too.


If the FAA and Being were caught doing something "fishy" in this recertification and more people died, I'm 100% positive it would lead to the largest legal settlement in history and put Boeing into Chapter 11. The FAA would be disbanded, and both outcomes would be justified. For that reason alone I don't see this happening. Boeing and the FAA must know that this "pathway" back is simply not an option and I trust neither would even consider it, and not only for that reason. Cancelling the MAX outright and going around up with an all new replacement would be more logical than that from any angle.
 
MrBretz
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Sep 13, 2019 6:41 pm

Here’s an article about the logistical challenge that Boeing is planning when the MAX returns. It sounds like people are already being deployed.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/focus-cr ... 43644.html
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Sep 13, 2019 6:53 pm

WIederling wrote:
morrisond wrote:
They did right after Lionair.

...
( And that nice "RTFM" from Boeing. Daft third worlders no match to pilots at home.)
....


While I don't agree generally that US pilots are inherently better than any others, the statistics do clearly show substantially worse safety in third world countries. So it's not entirely unreasonable to question whether training comes into effect, since they are basically flying the same equipment and few accidents are equipment-related.
 
kalvado
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Sep 13, 2019 7:54 pm

And MAX saga reaches a milestone:
on March 13th, at 2.54 PM - that is 6 months sharp if you take DST into account - an Executive Tweet was issued:
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/sta ... 5888415744
FAA grounding order came a few minutes later.
https://www.faa.gov/news/updates/?newsId=93206
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Sep 13, 2019 8:02 pm

Chemist wrote:
WIederling wrote:
morrisond wrote:
They did right after Lionair.

...
( And that nice "RTFM" from Boeing. Daft third worlders no match to pilots at home.)
....


While I don't agree generally that US pilots are inherently better than any others, the statistics do clearly show substantially worse safety in third world countries. So it's not entirely unreasonable to question whether training comes into effect, since they are basically flying the same equipment and few accidents are equipment-related.


It's not just training though. It's procedures and company culture and expectations. I believe that there are some very classy and 1st class airlines in many parts of the world that are on par with US airlines and pilots. However, from a combination of procedures, company culture and expectations it does appear to me that there are also a lot of airlines with at least potential issues in much of the world outside of North America, Europe, and the Australia/Japan area.

Have a great day,
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Fri Sep 13, 2019 9:26 pm

morrisond wrote:
PixelFlight wrote:
planecane wrote:

I will ask again, simulator training for what exactly? This question comes under the assumption that an AoA disagree will lead to an updated checklist that includes returning to the nearest suitable airport. I'm assuming this will be the case since an aircraft can't be dispatched with an AoA sensor failure so it would only be logical that an NNC wouldn't allow a continuation to destination with the same failure. With the AoA disagree warning present it should certainly be possible to ensure the aircraft stays out of the portion of the flight envelope where MCAS is needed.

Also, it seems that the most likely scenario for an AoA sensor failure is that either it was already broken before the takeoff roll or it is damaged by FOD or a bird shortly after takeoff. Flaps wouldn't have even been retracted yet. The NNC can include instructions to stay below flaps retraction speed and return to the airport. Aerodynamically, MCAS isn't required with flaps extended.

Final approach and landing would be the other likely damage scenario but flaps are likely extended at that point or will be very soon under a normal schedule. It seems that flying with MCAS disabled due to AoA disagree and ending up under the trigger conditions for it should be exceedingly rare. The only way I am wrong on this is if there is a history of a significant number of AoA sensor failures that happen at random times in cruise.

Therefore, if the only way to get an MCAS runaway (which with the limits of MCAS 2.0 will not lead to the same situation as the crashed flights) of any kind would be BOTH sensors failing within 5 degrees of each other with BOTH reading high AoA and if the chances of MCAS being required when it is disabled by an AoA disagree are extremely rare then what, exactly, is the good of simulator training?

It seems to me that, if my assumptions are correct, any demand for simulator training falls under the category of just "doing something" for PR and the sake of doing it. I can understand the desire for foreign regulators to do their own check since the FAA let MCAS 1.0 slip through. However, I think they should just pick one (EASA would be my vote) and the rest of the world should act on their results. If India can't trust EASA then doesn't that mean they must do their own certifications on all Airbus aircraft?

I agree that simulator training is probably not required for MCAS V2, but simulator training could be required to recognize fast enough an AoA failure, and/or to use (small) trim wheels at high speed. I would prefer that the AoA disagree alert will be mandatory and that the trim wheels will be replaced by a backup trim switches connected to a backup electric motor powered by a backup power supply, like on the A350.


Sim time is needed by all Pilots to ensure they can fly with Manual Throttle/Manual trim and all the Nannies turned off. It should be a non-event for all Pilots to fly the aircraft they are certified on even in IMC conditions using full manual control 100% of the time and practiced regularly so if HAL tries to kill them it's a non-event to turn all the helpers off.

Otherwise you might as well just get rid of the pilots and just accept HAL crashes every now and then which thankfully are getting fewer and fewer but will never go to zero as we will never be able to anticipate every situation or failure that the computers will have to deal with.

I don't understand how your reaction is relate to my message that was about recognize an AoA failure and about the too small trim wheel at high speed. There have almost nothing to do with automation. Yet there can be mitigated with relatively simple technical changes that already exists on others aircraft.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Sep 14, 2019 12:11 am

SilkAir to ferry all their 737MAX8's from SIN to ASP for storage due to the climate of SIN leading to potential mould, high humidity and potential corrosion. SilkAir has agreed with CASA to fly no higher than 20,000 feet and flaps sets at stage 1 to disable MCAS

https://www.facebook.com/AIRLINESECRETS ... nf&__xts__[0]=68.ARBzZTLvV906c1q3V8mn6-vTEOalZIrWBi2BGHhFevGmKyO0rkBGf82qZEbtTZSVZFVXKU8nPGbGP5k6w6SHbhA5LK0IpkUM0hvOpvYBfTlPeFKV5ZMty5fhv-oEJffmJooU_JIVC9mwHE50GeY0wd6w9DYk7mV-Qak1T38lC0O6xJACYkXCPxXdBgl0lUHglw4HubCHGCZ8B6-kEonvb6qjrFTqRPnHhGkAFEjSzxglwpVDTB60iDJH8B3WPdlHlywFKyjWvdx6mlwvYkEDB30-fhTfEwXyqKZmwKShLg3G3z2mBz_ptzfdRJpqu6VXwK-us82LAtweb07elzC-l_WrlZAM9EptJGWEUNojvCnNXR5xSCGpX8x6wI0
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Sep 14, 2019 6:05 am

PixelFlight wrote:
planecane wrote:
XRAYretired wrote:
'India plans to conduct its own checks and demand simulator training for all pilots before Boeing Co.’s 737 Max jets can fly in the country again, even if the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration were to clear the grounded jets, a person with direct knowledge of the matter said.'
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... 7-max-jets

Must be political in retaliation for Trump sanctions? (cos they cant have any one-upmanship intent, they don't have a large airplane manufacturer in country, any reason for not accepting Boeing/FAA certification without question). Or perhaps bribed by EU/China/Russia/Cocos Islands?

Ray


I will ask again, simulator training for what exactly? This question comes under the assumption that an AoA disagree will lead to an updated checklist that includes returning to the nearest suitable airport. I'm assuming this will be the case since an aircraft can't be dispatched with an AoA sensor failure so it would only be logical that an NNC wouldn't allow a continuation to destination with the same failure. With the AoA disagree warning present it should certainly be possible to ensure the aircraft stays out of the portion of the flight envelope where MCAS is needed.

Also, it seems that the most likely scenario for an AoA sensor failure is that either it was already broken before the takeoff roll or it is damaged by FOD or a bird shortly after takeoff. Flaps wouldn't have even been retracted yet. The NNC can include instructions to stay below flaps retraction speed and return to the airport. Aerodynamically, MCAS isn't required with flaps extended.

Final approach and landing would be the other likely damage scenario but flaps are likely extended at that point or will be very soon under a normal schedule. It seems that flying with MCAS disabled due to AoA disagree and ending up under the trigger conditions for it should be exceedingly rare. The only way I am wrong on this is if there is a history of a significant number of AoA sensor failures that happen at random times in cruise.

Therefore, if the only way to get an MCAS runaway (which with the limits of MCAS 2.0 will not lead to the same situation as the crashed flights) of any kind would be BOTH sensors failing within 5 degrees of each other with BOTH reading high AoA and if the chances of MCAS being required when it is disabled by an AoA disagree are extremely rare then what, exactly, is the good of simulator training?

It seems to me that, if my assumptions are correct, any demand for simulator training falls under the category of just "doing something" for PR and the sake of doing it. I can understand the desire for foreign regulators to do their own check since the FAA let MCAS 1.0 slip through. However, I think they should just pick one (EASA would be my vote) and the rest of the world should act on their results. If India can't trust EASA then doesn't that mean they must do their own certifications on all Airbus aircraft?

I agree that simulator training is probably not required for MCAS V2, but simulator training could be required to recognize fast enough an AoA failure, and/or to use (small) trim wheels at high speed. I would prefer that the AoA disagree alert will be mandatory and that the trim wheels will be replaced by a backup trim switches connected to a backup electric motor powered by a backup power supply, like on the A350.


Needed for the windup turn too.
(This is getting to be like the Groundhog Day movie :white: )
 
WIederling
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Sep 14, 2019 6:53 am

rheinwaldner wrote:
I really wonder, why the FAA did not insist on test flights with the MCAS switched off too.


Schrödingers 737 cat:
If you don't look the cat is still alive.
It is the way the MAX certification had been handled initially. Why change MoO?

another thing:
why are posters so agitated about retaliation?
The other way round this was apparently always the established way to go.
( cue: posters of a certain color instantly knowing
that it could only be retaliation of EASA balks.)
Murphy is an optimist
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Sep 14, 2019 7:09 am

bob75013 wrote:
Now why would Boeing be doing these things if it did not expect the grounding to soon be lifted?

There is action accompanying the CEO's words that he expects MAXs to be flying in 4Q, and that is why Boeing's stock price is up $50/share in two weeks despite the 777 and KC46 setbacks.


Why would they be doing those thing?

1 - It's all part of the "early 4Q" drumbeat.

2 - Regardless of when MAX returns to the skies, Boeing has to do that work. They'd look beyond stupid if they waited to start it until the day MAX is ungrounded, wouldn't they?

Regarding share price - look at the Dow. A rising sea lifts all boats.
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RickNRoll
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Sep 14, 2019 7:51 am

Revelation wrote:
asdf wrote:
morrisond wrote:
OK - so then the new standard is that if an Engineer or an Organization makes a mistake they are going to Jail?


If it really turns out that the 737 MAX (without augmentation) can not fly safely within the permissible operating values ​​due to the engines mounted too far forward, and the redundancy and deployment logic of the augmentation system can not be solved properly then additional to the few hundreds of death bodies and thousands of desperate relatives $.$$$.$$$.$$$.$$$,- are in play and at some point the question will arise who knew something and who could have done something when.

The change of Boeing's technical chief pilot to a lower position with a Boeing customer at an interesting point of the timeline is quite ..... interesting ..... here.

It seems - if the assumptions are correct - to give a lot of people affected here and a lot of Errors, too.

ERROR 1:
Missed Opportunity. Boeing management has overlooked the fact that by installing the large new fuel-efficient engines, the busses could suddenly gain a significant market advantage. That was already recognizable years before, only nobody recognized it. This mistake was made by the Management. When it happened (A320NEO), they were desperately looking for a way to build similar big new engines for the 737NG. But due to the much lower ground clearance of the 737 compared to the airbuses, this was not possible.

ERROR 2:
Underestimated Problem. Under the pressure of the market to be able to offer a competitive product, boeing has decided to mount the engines far in front of the wings, because this way they could be attached to the 737. The technicians have certainly calculated the aerodynamics beforehand and already they must have seen that this will lead to aerodynamic problems. Management underestimated this problem, probably under pressure from stockholders and the sales department.

ERROR 3:
Decision not taken. Although they did not know exactly how to solve this problem, they started to market the product. The marketing was very successful, the product was developed. Boeing already had many thousands of pre-orders when it turned out that the aerodynamic issues are serious and it is doubtful if they are solvable. Instead of closing the MAX project and developing the NSA with high pressure, the problem was kept secret and technical solutions were sought to disguise it in front of customers and the regulatory authority. At this point in time, a large number of employes within boeing were clear about the scope of the problem.

ERROR 4:
Wrong assumption. In a completely FBW-controlled aircraft type, aerodynamic problems can be well compensated by the electronic flight control. It then only depends on the redundancy of the components and sensors. In contrast, in a fundamentally mechanically controlled aircraft such as the 737, additional electronic control of flight control surfaces is much more difficult to realize. It takes a variety of sensors and actuators to always respond to different flight situations. Such an extension, if properly conceived, is not much easier to build than a complete FBW concept. Many at the manufacturer boeing must have realized that not a common solution was created here but it was trying to mask a defect.

ERROR 5:
Wrong assumption. Apparently it was believed that with sufficient coverage of measures, use of unsuspicious terms and implementation of PR measures can not only obscure the aerodynamic deficiency, but also refrain from pilot training and thus can make additional profit on sales. That did not work in the long run due to the two disasters.

ERROR 6:
Fundamental problem not recognized. Consequences are not considered. It was not taken into account from the very beginning that a manually controlled aircraft such as the 737, if it shows a problematic flight behavior, is inevitably much more insecure in operation than an aircraft engineered for aerodynamic optimum. Until now, everyones focus is always on the most safe and reliable electronic augmentation of misconduct (MCAS). But this does not change the fact that a plane with aerodynamical flaws is much less secure in any kind of exceptional situations (operation at the limit of permissible values, overload, weather, evasive action, below average pilot skills, mechanical or electrical component faults, maintenance faults, etc.). Even the best augmentation system can not change that fact. You can only compensate aerodynamical flaws with a complete FBW system.


They should have realized sooner that their market position was endangered, then the NSA plane would already be in production today and nobody cares about a MAX.
If boeing have detected it too late then boeing would have to analyze the problem with the aerodnamic in detail in time, then boeing would have stopped development on time.
But of course it is hard to cancel a product for which you have thousands of orders.

There is no Plan B for the 737 MAX.

Re: "Although they did not know exactly how to solve this problem, they started to market the product" -- that describes every product I've worked on for three plus decades as an engineer! The thing I'm working on now for two years still has big problems that my team does not know how to solve, and yet the product is in the marketplace already. Well, we always have field trials to try to sort it out. Engineers are inventive. We have a few approaches to solving the problem, but are not sure which one will be best.

Strange, you are suggesting the right answer was to go forward with NSA which had even more unsolved problems than did MAX, both in terms of engineering and marketing.

The answer to that is the one you already gave, the customers preferred a timely and affordable performance boost to MAX rather than the cost and delay that an all new aircraft comes with.

The fact that the MCAS design was totally botched does not undo the market verdict that the MAX was the preferred product.


Yet I don't believe the customers want what they have now. Boeing didn't outline the risks involved but tried to downplay them.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Sep 14, 2019 10:15 am

scbriml wrote:
bob75013 wrote:
Now why would Boeing be doing these things if it did not expect the grounding to soon be lifted?

There is action accompanying the CEO's words that he expects MAXs to be flying in 4Q, and that is why Boeing's stock price is up $50/share in two weeks despite the 777 and KC46 setbacks.


Why would they be doing those thing?

1 - It's all part of the "early 4Q" drumbeat.

2 - Regardless of when MAX returns to the skies, Boeing has to do that work. They'd look beyond stupid if they waited to start it until the day MAX is ungrounded, wouldn't they?

Regarding share price - look at the Dow. A rising sea lifts all boats.


BA stock diverged from the DJIA significantly on the down side until recently. The only blind trading of BA is from index funds.

Doing these things as part of a "drumbeat" would lead to potential SEC violations. While they certainly need to be prepared and not wait for the last minute they aren't going to do the preparation several months ahead of time. The timing indicates that they believe that at least a staggered return to service is somewhat imminent (in the timeframe of weeks, not months). They can't be 100% certain but seem to at least be cautiously optimistic.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Sep 14, 2019 12:44 pm

planecane wrote:
The timing indicates that they believe that at least a staggered return to service is somewhat imminent (in the timeframe of Werks, not months). They can't be 100% certain but seem to at least be cautiously optimistic.


Well, they can be shure - if ist is already trumped that the FAA will rubberstamp whatever boeing will deliver as a Solution ...
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Sep 14, 2019 12:52 pm

asdf wrote:
planecane wrote:
The timing indicates that they believe that at least a staggered return to service is somewhat imminent (in the timeframe of Werks, not months). They can't be 100% certain but seem to at least be cautiously optimistic.


Well, they can be shure - if ist is already trumped that the FAA will rubberstamp whatever boeing will deliver as a Solution ...

How does that mindset explain what the FAA did in June-2019?
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Sep 14, 2019 1:57 pm

WIederling wrote:

Schrödingers 737 cat:
If you don't look the cat is still alive.
It is the way the MAX certification had been handled initially. Why change MoO?


That's funny. EASA wants to open the box and look. FAA seems to be more like "Well, the 737 seemed fine when we put it in the box. So why look?"

I was gonna make a crude joke about the 737 double slit experiment, but it might be a bit too edgy right now.
 
9Patch
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Sep 14, 2019 2:07 pm

Scott Hamilton raises the possibility that the EASA may require a third AOA sensor.

For MAX, the fixes to the MCAS and flight control system are software updates that will take maybe a few hours to download. As of today, no hardware fix is going to be required, although Europe’s safety regulator, EASA, says a third Angle of Attack sensor of some kind may be mandated.

https://leehamnews.com/2019/09/13/look- ... more-31161
 
bob75013
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Sep 14, 2019 2:21 pm

scbriml wrote:
bob75013 wrote:
Now why would Boeing be doing these things if it did not expect the grounding to soon be lifted?

There is action accompanying the CEO's words that he expects MAXs to be flying in 4Q, and that is why Boeing's stock price is up $50/share in two weeks despite the 777 and KC46 setbacks.


Why would they be doing those thing?

1 - It's all part of the "early 4Q" drumbeat.

2 - Regardless of when MAX returns to the skies, Boeing has to do that work. They'd look beyond stupid if they waited to start it until the day MAX is ungrounded, wouldn't they?

Regarding share price - look at the Dow. A rising sea lifts all boats.


Well a look art the charts shows that Boeing (up 18.5%) is the cause of the rising the tide vs the DOW (up 6.8%) in the last month, not that accuracy matters to some people.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EDJI/ ... aMThSRCIsI
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Sep 14, 2019 2:45 pm

RickNRoll wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Re: "Although they did not know exactly how to solve this problem, they started to market the product" -- that describes every product I've worked on for three plus decades as an engineer! The thing I'm working on now for two years still has big problems that my team does not know how to solve, and yet the product is in the marketplace already. Well, we always have field trials to try to sort it out. Engineers are inventive. We have a few approaches to solving the problem, but are not sure which one will be best.

Strange, you are suggesting the right answer was to go forward with NSA which had even more unsolved problems than did MAX, both in terms of engineering and marketing.

The answer to that is the one you already gave, the customers preferred a timely and affordable performance boost to MAX rather than the cost and delay that an all new aircraft comes with.

The fact that the MCAS design was totally botched does not undo the market verdict that the MAX was the preferred product.

Yet I don't believe the customers want what they have now. Boeing didn't outline the risks involved but tried to downplay them.

Yet you advocate a new clean sheet NSA in 2011 after Boeing didn't outline the risks involved in their last clean sheet, which include outsourcing large amounts of detail design work to partners whom never had such responsibilities in the past, trying a new battery chemistry without providing an upgraded containment vessel, etc.

Of course customers don't want what they have now with MAX. They also didn't want to wait for a NSA in 2011 mainly because they realized it came with all kinds of risks, the kind vendors downplay. They also didn't want a 787 with the wrong fasteners, weak wing joints, fires in the electrical bay, exploding batteries, turbine blades that fail long before expected, etc. All these are risks that came with Boeing's last clean sheet.
Last edited by Revelation on Sat Sep 14, 2019 3:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Sep 14, 2019 2:53 pm

9Patch wrote:
Scott Hamilton raises the possibility that the EASA may require a third AOA sensor.

For MAX, the fixes to the MCAS and flight control system are software updates that will take maybe a few hours to download. As of today, no hardware fix is going to be required, although Europe’s safety regulator, EASA, says a third Angle of Attack sensor of some kind may be mandated.

https://leehamnews.com/2019/09/13/look- ... more-31161

The actual statement from EASA has been out for three days now, which was:

"EASA has concerns regarding the consequences of Angle of Attack sensor failures at aircraft level, and the ability of the flight crews to cope with the situation in critical phases of flight (such as takeoff)," the spokesperson said.

"We are not being prescriptive in the way these concerns should be addressed, it could be through improvement of the flight crew procedures and training, or through design enhancements, or a combination of the two," the spokesperson said. "It is up to the aircraft manufacturer to decide on the system architecture (which is why the number of AOA vanes varies) and then to demonstrate that the safety objectives are met with this architecture."

"The airworthiness regulation is not prescriptive with respect to the number of angle of attack vanes on an aircraft," the spokesperson added. "All certified airplanes have a minimum of two vanes, which is considered to be the bare minimum requirement to meet the safety objectives."

Ref: https://www.businessinsider.com/europe- ... lit-2019-9

SH said EASA may require three sensors, but that's not what EASA is saying.

EASA is saying we have a set of requirements with regard to your aircraft, and we aren't going to tell you to use three sensors or two to meet the requirements, that's up to you.

The onus is on Boeing to prove they can meet the requirements with two sensors, or move to a system with three or more sensors.

I really like SH and Leeham, and probably will become a subscriber when I have enough free time to use their content, but he really needs to hire an editor / fact checker to review his stuff before he hits the "send" button.
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PixelFlight
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Sep 14, 2019 7:52 pm

9Patch wrote:
Scott Hamilton raises the possibility that the EASA may require a third AOA sensor.

For MAX, the fixes to the MCAS and flight control system are software updates that will take maybe a few hours to download. As of today, no hardware fix is going to be required, although Europe’s safety regulator, EASA, says a third Angle of Attack sensor of some kind may be mandated.

https://leehamnews.com/2019/09/13/look- ... more-31161

As "Revelation" have point out, this is not really what EASA said. In addition requiring a third AoA sensor on the 737-8/9 MAX only will have little sens as the others 737, the 767, the 777 and the 787 (not exhaustive list) also have only two AoA sensors.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Sep 14, 2019 8:09 pm

Folks, this is a fact based forum. Flamebait discussion on conspiracy theory results in A vs. B discussion that is just antagonistic.

Please review the forum rules
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
ArchGuy1
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Sep 15, 2019 2:13 am

Do you think India will recertify the 737 MAX soon.
 
RickNRoll
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Sep 15, 2019 7:45 am

ArchGuy1 wrote:
Do you think India will recertify the 737 MAX soon.

This is India. Define "Soon".
 
XRAYretired
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Sep 15, 2019 8:03 am

Director General Saif Mohammed al-Suwaidi told reporters in Dubai that the UAE would conduct its own separate re-certification of the aircraft, rather than follow the Federal Aviation Authority.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-emir ... SKBN1W005A
Bahamas still not declared their position.

Ray
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Sep 15, 2019 12:30 pm

XRAYretired wrote:
Director General Saif Mohammed al-Suwaidi told reporters in Dubai that the UAE would conduct its own separate re-certification of the aircraft, rather than follow the Federal Aviation Authority.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-emir ... SKBN1W005A
Bahamas still not declared their position.

Ray

Which confirms the mindset, now that the cat is out of the bag and regulators are "empowered" - they always were -, all Boeing can do is to work with its initial regulator and go from there, until the FAA clears it no one else will, and since the majority of the world was not invited to be a part of JTAR what do you expect?
The MAX cleared for USA operations, expect Canada and Mexico to delay along with some South and Central American countries, the Caribbean is somewhat in a bind since we prefer American over local, EASA probably 3 months later, India then starts their inspection along with China, and on and on it goes.
The only fly in the ointment is what is in the compensation portion of contracts signed by airlines, if compensation ceases or goes down after FAA cleared to fly, the airlines which are for the most part national may assist their regulators in speeding up their certification efforts by lending their expertise.
 
xwb777
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Sep 15, 2019 2:11 pm

What if Boeing fails in maintaining the safety of the B737MAX?
 
xwb777
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Sep 15, 2019 2:13 pm

The United Arab Emirates Civil Aviation regulator will wait until Q1 2020 to allow the first B737MAX to take off to the skies or fly through the UAE airspace.
 
bob75013
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Sep 15, 2019 2:44 pm

xwb777 wrote:
What if Boeing fails in maintaining the safety of the B737MAX?



What if it does?

After all, if the regulators lift the grounding aren't they saying that Boeing has "maintained the safety" of the aircraft?
Last edited by bob75013 on Sun Sep 15, 2019 2:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
bob75013
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Sep 15, 2019 2:45 pm

xwb777 wrote:
The United Arab Emirates Civil Aviation regulator will wait until Q1 2020 to allow the first B737MAX to take off to the skies or fly through the UAE airspace.



link?
 
xwb777
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Sep 15, 2019 2:48 pm

bob75013 wrote:
xwb777 wrote:
The United Arab Emirates Civil Aviation regulator will wait until Q1 2020 to allow the first B737MAX to take off to the skies or fly through the UAE airspace.



link?

https://www.arabianbusiness.com/transpo ... efore-2020
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Sep 15, 2019 2:54 pm

xwb777 wrote:
What if Boeing fails in maintaining the safety of the B737MAX?

They and the FAA both know they will be screwed if MAX is not safe after these many months of grounding, so they will be pretty darn sure it's safe by the time it flies.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
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bob75013
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Sep 15, 2019 4:46 pm

xwb777 wrote:
bob75013 wrote:
xwb777 wrote:
The United Arab Emirates Civil Aviation regulator will wait until Q1 2020 to allow the first B737MAX to take off to the skies or fly through the UAE airspace.



link?

https://www.arabianbusiness.com/transpo ... efore-2020


actually, the article says "“We won’t fly the Max until we are 100 percent sure,” Nowhere in the article is a promise that it won't fly til 2020. The speculation is that means 1Q20. However, if they are 100% sure in 4Q19, then it could be 4Q19
 
chiad
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Sep 15, 2019 5:10 pm

bob75013 wrote:
xwb777 wrote:


actually, the article says "“We won’t fly the Max until we are 100 percent sure,” Nowhere in the article is a promise that it won't fly til 2020. The speculation is that means 1Q20. However, if they are 100% sure in 4Q19, then it could be 4Q19


What about the Headtitle in Bloomberg?
"U.A.E. Doesn't Expect Boeing 737 Max to Fly Again This Year"
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -this-year
Last edited by chiad on Sun Sep 15, 2019 5:12 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
airnorth
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Sep 15, 2019 5:10 pm

Does anyone have information on all of the recent AC MAX flights? They have been sporadic, but ongoing now for several weeks, sometimes its the same aircraft all day, other times more than one. Testing by AC? I would guess that special permits would be required? It seems odd that of all of the airlines in the world, only AC aircraft seem to be doing this type of flying, at least that is all I have been able to find on FR24. I know that AC has sent a few frames to the desert for dry storage, but those flights aside, any info would be great!

Thanks

https://www.flightradar24.com/ACA2339/221cc29d
 
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SQ22
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Sep 15, 2019 5:36 pm

airnorth wrote:
Does anyone have information on all of the recent AC MAX flights? They have been sporadic, but ongoing now for several weeks, sometimes its the same aircraft all day, other times more than one. Testing by AC? I would guess that special permits would be required? It seems odd that of all of the airlines in the world, only AC aircraft seem to be doing this type of flying, at least that is all I have been able to find on FR24. I know that AC has sent a few frames to the desert for dry storage, but those flights aside, any info would be great!

Thanks

https://www.flightradar24.com/ACA2339/221cc29d


Please have a read here:

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1430895
 
hivue
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Sep 15, 2019 8:35 pm

WIederling wrote:
rheinwaldner wrote:
I really wonder, why the FAA did not insist on test flights with the MCAS switched off too.


Schrödingers 737 cat:
If you don't look the cat is still alive.


When the MAX starts flying again everybody, their brother, and his dog will be watching and the waveform collapses.

Boeing has been burned very badly by this sort of thing already. If they calculate that flight testing with MCAS off will help prevent the MAX from hitting the headlines again in all the wrong ways they will do the testing, regardless of what the FAA asks for.
"You're sitting. In a chair. In the SKY!!" ~ Louis C.K.
 
airnorth
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Sep 15, 2019 8:48 pm

SQ22 wrote:
airnorth wrote:
Does anyone have information on all of the recent AC MAX flights? They have been sporadic, but ongoing now for several weeks, sometimes its the same aircraft all day, other times more than one. Testing by AC? I would guess that special permits would be required? It seems odd that of all of the airlines in the world, only AC aircraft seem to be doing this type of flying, at least that is all I have been able to find on FR24. I know that AC has sent a few frames to the desert for dry storage, but those flights aside, any info would be great!

Thanks

https://www.flightradar24.com/ACA2339/221cc29d


Please have a read here:

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1430895


Thanks! can't believe I missed this thread, I don't understand why it is locked though, seems like a logical place to post flights and updates.
 
bob75013
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Sep 15, 2019 9:52 pm

chiad wrote:
bob75013 wrote:
xwb777 wrote:


actually, the article says "“We won’t fly the Max until we are 100 percent sure,” Nowhere in the article is a promise that it won't fly til 2020. The speculation is that means 1Q20. However, if they are 100% sure in 4Q19, then it could be 4Q19


What about the Headtitle in Bloomberg?
"U.A.E. Doesn't Expect Boeing 737 Max to Fly Again This Year"
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -this-year


The title was written by a reporter not officials in the UAE. Officials in the UAE said: "We won’t fly the Max until we are 100 percent sure."
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Sep 15, 2019 9:53 pm

It may lead to questions as to why the Canadians have no fear of the a/c crashing and affecting the public whereby in the EU, getting one to transit to storage is a huge undertaking for safety, stay at certain height, flaps down etc etc..
 
bob75013
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Sep 15, 2019 10:20 pm

par13del wrote:
It may lead to questions as to why the Canadians have no fear of the a/c crashing and affecting the public whereby in the EU, getting one to transit to storage is a huge undertaking for safety, stay at certain height, flaps down etc etc..



It seems you known the Canadian transit rules. Perhaps you could explain them to us.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Sep 15, 2019 10:44 pm

par13del wrote:
It may lead to questions as to why the Canadians have no fear of the a/c crashing and affecting the public whereby in the EU, getting one to transit to storage is a huge undertaking for safety, stay at certain height, flaps down etc etc..


Do you know that Canada doesn't impose similar restrictions?

Canada is significantly less densely populated than Europe, so maybe they care less? :duck:
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Sep 15, 2019 11:18 pm

bob75013 wrote:
par13del wrote:
It may lead to questions as to why the Canadians have no fear of the a/c crashing and affecting the public whereby in the EU, getting one to transit to storage is a huge undertaking for safety, stay at certain height, flaps down etc etc..



It seems you known the Canadian transit rules. Perhaps you could explain them to us.

If you read the article, you would see that the Canadians are doing flights for check captains etc. one would think that such flying is more dangerous than a transit flight with flaps down.
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Sep 15, 2019 11:23 pm

scbriml wrote:
par13del wrote:
It may lead to questions as to why the Canadians have no fear of the a/c crashing and affecting the public whereby in the EU, getting one to transit to storage is a huge undertaking for safety, stay at certain height, flaps down etc etc..


Do you know that Canada doesn't impose similar restrictions?

Canada is significantly less densely populated than Europe, so maybe they care less? :duck:

Or maybe the Canadian media don't think those flights are serious enough to have such write ups as we see in Europe when a/c are transiting for storage?

Its just strange in this thread since all we read about is lawn dart, never fly on MAX, Boeing blame pilots, pilots cannot control MCAS, etc etc etc yet someone thinks it is safe enough to have pilots maintain certification by flying unaltered a/c?
Or are they also involved in the Boeing Test program and the a/c that they are operating has the updated MCAS software loaded via some exemption by the Canadian authorities?
 
bob75013
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Sep 15, 2019 11:38 pm

par13del wrote:
bob75013 wrote:
par13del wrote:
It may lead to questions as to why the Canadians have no fear of the a/c crashing and affecting the public whereby in the EU, getting one to transit to storage is a huge undertaking for safety, stay at certain height, flaps down etc etc..



It seems you known the Canadian transit rules. Perhaps you could explain them to us.

If you read the article, you would see that the Canadians are doing flights for check captains etc. one would think that such flying is more dangerous than a transit flight with flaps down.


You did not provide a link to an article.
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Sep 15, 2019 11:45 pm

See post 3641 and 3642, the last is a moderator link to a discussion of the flights.

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