kalvado
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Sep 18, 2019 2:37 pm

Revelation wrote:
kalvado wrote:
Being a pilot says nothing about author's "airmanship", as he nicely proves in the article. Sully ay be the only person in US with "airmanship" proven in action.
Awards can easily come from being scandalous and unprofessional, as opposed to rigorous reporting.

My message was totally different, though. Is there any other mass profession where specific talent is required, as opposed to regular trainable skill?
Policemanship, teachership, doctorship, janitorialship? Drivership, maybe? Flightattendantship?
Entrepreneurship is the only one I can think of the top of my head - but what is the success rate of startups, do you remember?
Seeking for specific talent is OK for austonauts - while there are at most few thousand people who flew to the orbit as a peak of their career; for hundreds journalists of top tier newspapers. Not sure how many pilots are there, but million worldwide is probably about right. There are no that many people with specific talents...

IMO a lot of the reporting in this space has been flawed because the journalists involved have little or no aviation training, and are under time pressure to get a story to press.

Clearly this article does not suffer from those concerns.

I would say it is opinionated, but if you read his father's book, it advocates that pilots have a deep "stick and rudder" understanding of aviation, so the article's approach is no shock to me.

I would say his dad's book is a classic in the aviation field, but does cause a lot of controversy, because not everyone agrees that such an approach is the right one.

I know from personal experience that at least three people involved in my training as a glider pilot recommended that I purchase and read the book, and indeed I did so.

I can also say others told me not to bother reading that outdated nonsense.

Unfortunately, I found a lot of diametrically opposed opinions during my gliding training, so I went to a commercial operator and just did what their staff wanted done to get my license.

The commercial operator had a copy of "Stick and Rudder" on the book shelf behind his desk! :biggrin:

What does it all prove? Pretty much nothing IMHO. There are lots of good educative books around; the main thing they teach is that same mistakes are done over and over again.
Moreover, even a good book can send a bad message. Is it a good idea to learn above and beyond? Sure. Should that be considered as a requirement? No, it is just that- above and beyond.
Look at BOeing engineering job postings. Anything about specific dedication, anything going above and beyond? Nope. SO why that becomes a requirement for a plane operator?
 
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scbriml
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Sep 18, 2019 6:24 pm

Revelation wrote:
Confirms we have MCAS 1.0 planes flying without falling out of the sky.


They were all flying without falling out of the sky.

Until the AOA sensors failed and the shocking flaws in MCAS implementation were able to assert themselves. You know, the flawed MCAS that Boeing decided nobody needed to know about.
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Sep 18, 2019 6:37 pm

scbriml wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Confirms we have MCAS 1.0 planes flying without falling out of the sky.


They were all flying without falling out of the sky.

Until the AOA sensors failed and the shocking flaws in MCAS implementation were able to assert themselves. You know, the flawed MCAS that Boeing decided nobody needed to know about.

Thanks for the history lesson, but it's not that relevant to Transport Canada and Air Canada being fully informed and deciding it's flyable by training captains as is.

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9Patch
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Sep 18, 2019 6:39 pm

scbriml wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Confirms we have MCAS 1.0 planes flying without falling out of the sky.


They were all flying without falling out of the sky.

Until the AOA sensors failed and the shocking flaws in MCAS implementation were able to assert themselves. You know, the flawed MCAS that Boeing decided nobody needed to know about.


The pilots on the Ethiopian flight knew about MCAS.
 
jmry888
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Sep 18, 2019 7:51 pm

If anyone wants a good read about this subject here is an interesting and readable article.

What Really Brought Down the Boeing 737 Max

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/18/maga ... ashes.html

Seeming as a lot of quotes on this thread come from news sources this should be good reading.
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Sep 18, 2019 8:08 pm

It seems like we triggered one of the Mods.

They must not have liked the NYT article or the discussion around it.

Are we not allowed to discuss it as it goes against the current narrative?

That seems a little heavy handed.

It would be nice if they could explain why all those posts were pulled.

I thought most of them were relatively well balanced.
Last edited by morrisond on Wed Sep 18, 2019 8:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Sep 18, 2019 8:10 pm

cledaybuck wrote:
Anyway, it appears the FAA is going to be meeting with other international regulators next week. https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/compani ... ar-AAHrrvC

Not sure if it is stirring the pot, but is it official that MCAS is an anti-stall feature, media seems to have settled the issue.
 
sgrow787
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Sep 18, 2019 8:19 pm

Well dont say I didnt tell you. All the dominoes are lining up for Boeing and the FAA to blame the pilots as part of their ungrounding plan, re the NYT article today saying pilots are to blame:

https://amp.businessinsider.com/737-max ... ort-2019-9

Now we just need the forthcoming NTSB report to blame pilots for X%.

This is all consistent with building up support with their initial and continuing claim that pilot performance was a valid assumption as a safety backstop, and that their resulting safety classification was valid, or at the least "feasible").
Last edited by sgrow787 on Wed Sep 18, 2019 8:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Just one sensor,
Ooh ooh oo-ooh
Oo-oo-ooh.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Sep 18, 2019 8:39 pm

Revelation wrote:
scbriml wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Confirms we have MCAS 1.0 planes flying without falling out of the sky.


They were all flying without falling out of the sky.

Until the AOA sensors failed and the shocking flaws in MCAS implementation were able to assert themselves. You know, the flawed MCAS that Boeing decided nobody needed to know about.


Thanks for the history lesson, but it's not that relevant to Transport Canada and Air Canada being fully informed and deciding it's flyable by training captains as is.

Do you prefer to dwell in the past?


You’re welcome, but your post read like Boeing propaganda and training captains taking occasional flights without passengers is hardly a glowing endorsement, is it?

Also, As highlighted earlier in the thread we don’t know what restrictions are enforced on these empty flights.
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Sep 18, 2019 8:47 pm

scbriml wrote:
You’re welcome, but your post read like Boeing propaganda and training captains taking occasional flights without passengers is hardly a glowing endorsement, is it?

I think it's noteworthy that Transport Canada and Air Canada both are OK with using the MAX for training flights.

Given the history, that is a glowing endorsement.

scbriml wrote:
Also, As highlighted earlier in the thread we don’t know what restrictions are enforced on these empty flights.

We know they are unrestricted enough to count as training time.

Suggesting otherwise reads like anti-common-sense propaganda.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
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Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
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airnorth
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Sep 18, 2019 9:25 pm

Revelation wrote:
scbriml wrote:
You’re welcome, but your post read like Boeing propaganda and training captains taking occasional flights without passengers is hardly a glowing endorsement, is it?

I think it's noteworthy that Transport Canada and Air Canada both are OK with using the MAX for training flights.

Given the history, that is a glowing endorsement.

scbriml wrote:
Also, As highlighted earlier in the thread we don’t know what restrictions are enforced on these empty flights.

We know they are unrestricted enough to count as training time.

Suggesting otherwise reads like anti-common-sense propaganda.


Some more info here on those flights: https://www.wingsoverquebec.com/?p=8890
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Sep 18, 2019 9:26 pm

It is difficult to understand why several on this site are unwilling to consider that pilots could have done better. Just about none of those saying on this site (nor writing in the media) have asserted that Boeing did not make some serious errors. They did.
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kalvado
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Sep 18, 2019 9:50 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
It is difficult to understand why several on this site are unwilling to consider that pilots could have done better. Just about none of those saying on this site (nor writing in the media) have asserted that Boeing did not make some serious errors. They did.

Sure they could do better. Could they realistically done better?
This all goes down to the depth of human psychology. There are studies, some quoted about 1000 posts upstream, where human performance under unusual stress was quantified. Moral of the story: Humans are really unrealiable.
Some people keep complaining about how bad pilots these days. A slice of Great Generation pilot performance from a first world airline:

UA915 in 1961: pilot ignored the prescribed instrument landing procedures
UA553 in 1972: distracted, stalled, crashed.
UA173 in 1978: troubleshooting a problem in a hold pattern, run out of fuel, crashed
UA629 in 1983: trim setting wrong, likely because pilots and FE changed seats and forgot to reset. Crashed.
THis is not to single out UA, pretty sure any airline has a few of those. Today ET's 10 year old crash is used to prove poor safety record. I wonder if UA had fewer planes in 70s than ET today..

We just got used to largely improved safety - pilots of today are probably as good as they were 50 years ago, if not better; and most planes are better designed and equipped.
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Sep 18, 2019 10:47 pm

kalvado wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
It is difficult to understand why several on this site are unwilling to consider that pilots could have done better. Just about none of those saying on this site (nor writing in the media) have asserted that Boeing did not make some serious errors. They did.

Sure they could do better. Could they realistically done better?
This all goes down to the depth of human psychology. There are studies, some quoted about 1000 posts upstream, where human performance under unusual stress was quantified. Moral of the story: Humans are really unrealiable.
Some people keep complaining about how bad pilots these days. A slice of Great Generation pilot performance from a first world airline:

UA915 in 1961: pilot ignored the prescribed instrument landing procedures
UA553 in 1972: distracted, stalled, crashed.
UA173 in 1978: troubleshooting a problem in a hold pattern, run out of fuel, crashed
UA629 in 1983: trim setting wrong, likely because pilots and FE changed seats and forgot to reset. Crashed.
THis is not to single out UA, pretty sure any airline has a few of those. Today ET's 10 year old crash is used to prove poor safety record. I wonder if UA had fewer planes in 70s than ET today..

We just got used to largely improved safety - pilots of today are probably as good as they were 50 years ago, if not better; and most planes are better designed and equipped.


Yes UA pilots made a lot of mistakes in the past. Hard lessons were learned that led to the procedures they use in the cockpit and the concurrent training they take part in.

The question is though has ET learned anything or will they change anything in their training?
 
NightStar
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Sep 18, 2019 11:01 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
Just a note on accessing New York Times articles. While you cannot use 'private' or 'incognito' modes anymore, you are allowed about 4 articles a month (and each browser can do so, I keep a couple on my desk-top, also iPhone).


I noticed that about the New York Times recently. I regularly use Chrome incognito to browse and they won't let you read much any longer. So frustrating, but I won't bend to their will. I imagine that the "incognito" and "private" settings are relatively speaking a bit of smoke and mirrors but I still feel slightly better using them. I can get the gist of the articles presented here by the commentary that goes with much of it. :D
 
ikramerica
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Sep 18, 2019 11:41 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
It is difficult to understand why several on this site are unwilling to consider that pilots could have done better. Just about none of those saying on this site (nor writing in the media) have asserted that Boeing did not make some serious errors. They did.

Because they don’t want to.

I stopped chiming in long ago because people aren’t willing to see the reality that the reason WHY the trim was activating was Boeings fault, but how the pilots and the airlines dealt with it was their fault.

Blame for failure to follow proper procedures for what to do when uncontrolled trim is encountered is not absolved simply because they didn’t specifically know why it was happening. That’s why there is a procedure.

In the first crash, the pilots the night before knew what to do and did it. Somehow the plane wasn’t fixed right AND the crew the next day wasn’t briefed. The pilots then seemed to forget their training and crashed. The airline had a hierarchy problem and a training problem and an information sharing problem.

In the second crash, the crew and the airline knew of the first crash, had months to find out what that crew did wrong in terms of not following the procedures, had time to become aware that the switches changed name but still needed to be turned off. The pilots kept the aircraft at a dangerous speed, failed to follow procedure (or failed to be able to because they were at a dangerous speed) and crashed. The airline knew rhe aircraft was “difficult” and still put a green FO in there, and didn’t seem to learn any lessons from the first crash.

Boeing made a crap system. All they can do is fix that. They can’t fix those airlines. Only the airlines can properly train their pilots and properly dispatch their aircraft.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
ikramerica
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Sep 18, 2019 11:51 pm

kalvado wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
It is difficult to understand why several on this site are unwilling to consider that pilots could have done better. Just about none of those saying on this site (nor writing in the media) have asserted that Boeing did not make some serious errors. They did.

Sure they could do better. Could they realistically done better?
This all goes down to the depth of human psychology. There are studies, some quoted about 1000 posts upstream, where human performance under unusual stress was quantified. Moral of the story: Humans are really unrealiable.
Some people keep complaining about how bad pilots these days. A slice of Great Generation pilot performance from a first world airline:

UA915 in 1961: pilot ignored the prescribed instrument landing procedures
UA553 in 1972: distracted, stalled, crashed.
UA173 in 1978: troubleshooting a problem in a hold pattern, run out of fuel, crashed
UA629 in 1983: trim setting wrong, likely because pilots and FE changed seats and forgot to reset. Crashed.
THis is not to single out UA, pretty sure any airline has a few of those. Today ET's 10 year old crash is used to prove poor safety record. I wonder if UA had fewer planes in 70s than ET today..

We just got used to largely improved safety - pilots of today are probably as good as they were 50 years ago, if not better; and most planes are better designed and equipped.

Except the night before the first crash, the same aircraft had the same issue and that crew DID do it right. So much so that the airline didn’t seem to take the issue very seriously. It wasn’t humanly impossible to manually trim the aircraft or combat the stick shaker because they weren’t going dangerously fast or panicking or handing off control without communicating or any such problem. Their minds went “uncontrolled trim, I’m a trained 737 pilot, this is what I do.” Can everyone handle that? No. Not everyone should be pilots of commercial aircraft.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
marktci
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Sep 19, 2019 12:07 am

MSN.com picked up the NYT article and you should be able to read it here (if you can't get to it through the NYT site):

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/wh ... li=AAggNb9
 
sgrow787
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Sep 19, 2019 1:16 am

marktci wrote:
MSN.com picked up the NYT article and you should be able to read it here (if you can't get to it through the NYT site):

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/wh ... li=AAggNb9

The one problem with his (journalist Langewiesche, who is brand new to NYT, the linked article being his very first, so not much credibility there to begin with) point about Boeing being pilots first, is that Boeing would have given pilots the information on the new system, MCAS, if that were true. At that point, Boeing is depending on the training of loyal domestic pilots to pull them out of trouble. They're going to ask the ROTW to empirically approve the ungrounding based on a few months of domestic flight metrics, or however long it takes to will their way. Absolutely astonishing, the article as well as the saga..

Edit to add:
The other thing is, if Boeing was aware of inadequacies in Lion Air's pilot training, why would Boeing then decide to test out that inadequacy with real live passengers at stake, with their own safety record on the line? Isnt the more simple answer that they couldnt get the proper work done (ie with sensor redundancy) in the time promised, and they made a choice to stop "waxing that apple" and go make money??
Just one sensor,
Oh just one se-en-sor,
Just one sensor,
Ooh ooh oo-ooh
Oo-oo-ooh.
 
TheF15Ace
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Sep 19, 2019 2:47 am

morrisond wrote:

Yes UA pilots made a lot of mistakes in the past. Hard lessons were learned that led to the procedures they use in the cockpit and the concurrent training they take part in.

The question is though has ET learned anything or will they change anything in their training?


And yet ET's training seems to be better than some first world carriers like say Air Canada at least on their short haul Airbus fleet. Could be the same deficiencies could migrate over to their MAX training as well. How come no mention from someone who advocates for ''higher training standards for pilots globally''? :scratchchin:
 
Chemist
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Sep 19, 2019 4:41 am

frmrCapCadet wrote:
It is difficult to understand why several on this site are unwilling to consider that pilots could have done better. Just about none of those saying on this site (nor writing in the media) have asserted that Boeing did not make some serious errors. They did.


As is typical in aviation accidents, there is no one cause. It's too easy for people to be binary about it: "It was X" or "It was Y".
The reality is that problem X was compounded by problem Y and then perhaps further compounded by problem Z.

I don't think ANYBODY is saying Boeing wasn't horribly negligent in its design of MCAS v1.0. Please point to any body who is claiming that system was ok. In fact it was a disastrous mistake.
But that does not mean that pilot training is irrelevant, either.

The fact is that Max 1.0 was a flawed aircraft due to MCAS 1.0; it was inclined to exhibit a failure mode with too great a statistical frequency -- that would create very challenging situations for pilots. Situations that were recoverable, but required significant skill, experience, and airmanship from those pilots. If MCAS had not happened, the accidents wouldn't have happened. But if the pilots were just a bit better, the accidents might not have happened, either. In fact, Lion Air had a smart person in the cockpit that allowed a flight to proceed with the malfunction with no major issues. And even a second time on the actual accident flight, until the flying crewmember changed.

A lot of the arguments on this thread are people emotionally digging in: "Boeing should burn in hell for their mistakes" versus "It's all the pilot's fault". Unfortunately. the world is a lot more nuanced than those extremes.

Why can't people take a more balanced view of reality? Reality is rarely 100% one way.

Not a great example, but I am a private pilot. I believe I have a good understanding of my airplane's systems. One day a partner and I had taken off from a small field. While climbing out, our throttle stuck at full. We could not throttle back. We agreed immediately to fly to a local airport 6 miles away with a much longer runway. I was flying left seat so took flight while he handled radios. We declared an emergency. I managed throttle with mixture. This did reduce thrust. but caused significant backfiring. I was high and fast on final to the runway. Once I had the field assured, I told my partner I was going to cut the engine. I chose idle cutoff and glided the last 100 feet of altitude to a smooth landing. I even managed to rollout onto the turnoff. I knew my aircraft systems; I knew I could modulate thrust with mixture; I knew when I should cut the engine. There was no checklist for this problem -- yet we made those decisions immediately. We worked with great CRM as two pilots in a single engine piston plane. That understanding of airmanship is what the NYT article is talking about. That kind of experience is helpful to an airline pilot. The Gimli Glider (AC 767) was landed successfully by a pilot who was also a sailplane pilot, with great stick and rudder skills. Those are the skills you want in your pilot when you take a commercial flight.
 
RickNRoll
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Sep 19, 2019 4:56 am

ikramerica wrote:
kalvado wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
It is difficult to understand why several on this site are unwilling to consider that pilots could have done better. Just about none of those saying on this site (nor writing in the media) have asserted that Boeing did not make some serious errors. They did.

Sure they could do better. Could they realistically done better?
This all goes down to the depth of human psychology. There are studies, some quoted about 1000 posts upstream, where human performance under unusual stress was quantified. Moral of the story: Humans are really unrealiable.
Some people keep complaining about how bad pilots these days. A slice of Great Generation pilot performance from a first world airline:

UA915 in 1961: pilot ignored the prescribed instrument landing procedures
UA553 in 1972: distracted, stalled, crashed.
UA173 in 1978: troubleshooting a problem in a hold pattern, run out of fuel, crashed
UA629 in 1983: trim setting wrong, likely because pilots and FE changed seats and forgot to reset. Crashed.
THis is not to single out UA, pretty sure any airline has a few of those. Today ET's 10 year old crash is used to prove poor safety record. I wonder if UA had fewer planes in 70s than ET today..

We just got used to largely improved safety - pilots of today are probably as good as they were 50 years ago, if not better; and most planes are better designed and equipped.

Except the night before the first crash, the same aircraft had the same issue and that crew DID do it right. So much so that the airline didn’t seem to take the issue very seriously. It wasn’t humanly impossible to manually trim the aircraft or combat the stick shaker because they weren’t going dangerously fast or panicking or handing off control without communicating or any such problem. Their minds went “uncontrolled trim, I’m a trained 737 pilot, this is what I do.” Can everyone handle that? No. Not everyone should be pilots of commercial aircraft.
They had a pilot in the jump seat who was able to focus on the problem rather than trying to stop the plane diving straight into the ground
 
RickNRoll
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Sep 19, 2019 4:59 am

sgrow787 wrote:
marktci wrote:
MSN.com picked up the NYT article and you should be able to read it here (if you can't get to it through the NYT site):

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/wh ... li=AAggNb9

The one problem with his (journalist Langewiesche, who is brand new to NYT, the linked article being his very first, so not much credibility there to begin with) point about Boeing being pilots first, is that Boeing would have given pilots the information on the new system, MCAS, if that were true. At that point, Boeing is depending on the training of loyal domestic pilots to pull them out of trouble. They're going to ask the ROTW to empirically approve the ungrounding based on a few months of domestic flight metrics, or however long it takes to will their way. Absolutely astonishing, the article as well as the saga..

Edit to add:
The other thing is, if Boeing was aware of inadequacies in Lion Air's pilot training, why would Boeing then decide to test out that inadequacy with real live passengers at stake, with their own safety record on the line? Isnt the more simple answer that they couldnt get the proper work done (ie with sensor redundancy) in the time promised, and they made a choice to stop "waxing that apple" and go make money??
Pilots were, indeed, angry that MCAS was not documented. One of the big selling points of the 737 MAX is that it was the same old same old.
 
rheinwaldner
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Sep 19, 2019 5:42 am

ikramerica wrote:
Boeing made a crap system. All they can do is fix that. They can’t fix those airlines. Only the airlines can properly train their pilots and properly dispatch their aircraft.

You seem to ignore that the same pilots did not create a huge dent in the safety record of all the other existing aircraft types. The outlier is the MAX, therefore the MAX is grounded.
The fault tolerance of the MAX is far too small compared with any other aircraft out there. It is clearly the weakest link in the chain. The MCAS provoked and punished crew faults at the same time. Evidently there are countless western pilots, who don't claim, that they would have saved these MAXs in the broken condition, in which they were.
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PixelFlight
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Sep 19, 2019 6:20 am

Chemist wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
It is difficult to understand why several on this site are unwilling to consider that pilots could have done better. Just about none of those saying on this site (nor writing in the media) have asserted that Boeing did not make some serious errors. They did.


As is typical in aviation accidents, there is no one cause. It's too easy for people to be binary about it: "It was X" or "It was Y".
The reality is that problem X was compounded by problem Y and then perhaps further compounded by problem Z.

I don't think ANYBODY is saying Boeing wasn't horribly negligent in its design of MCAS v1.0. Please point to any body who is claiming that system was ok. In fact it was a disastrous mistake.
But that does not mean that pilot training is irrelevant, either.

The fact is that Max 1.0 was a flawed aircraft due to MCAS 1.0; it was inclined to exhibit a failure mode with too great a statistical frequency -- that would create very challenging situations for pilots. Situations that were recoverable, but required significant skill, experience, and airmanship from those pilots. If MCAS had not happened, the accidents wouldn't have happened. But if the pilots were just a bit better, the accidents might not have happened, either. In fact, Lion Air had a smart person in the cockpit that allowed a flight to proceed with the malfunction with no major issues. And even a second time on the actual accident flight, until the flying crewmember changed.

A lot of the arguments on this thread are people emotionally digging in: "Boeing should burn in hell for their mistakes" versus "It's all the pilot's fault". Unfortunately. the world is a lot more nuanced than those extremes.

Why can't people take a more balanced view of reality? Reality is rarely 100% one way.

Ok, but the story is not just errors or skills from Boeing vs pilots. Commercial aircraft safety has improved the last few decades mainly because designs, incidents and accidents was more systematically reported, analysed, and recommendations implemented. The core of this safety culture is to design the aircraft to have the few risky system operational failure mode as possible first and to mitigate the residual risk with manual procedure to be done by the pilots. It's not a balance between the system and the pilots, the hierarchy is clearly to first design a safe system and then mitigate with the pilots. Secondly, even if the pilots would have saved both of the 737-8/9 MAX crashes, the incidents should have been reported and trigger the exact same safety analysis that end up in the redesign of the MCAS. This is at least how all the safety regulations was designed to work. The fact is now well established that the problem was also into the safety regulation that failed to catch the design safety issue as expected. And this last point is far more important than the "Boeing vs pilots" already biased debate from a safety point of view.
 
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aerolimani
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Sep 19, 2019 6:30 am

Pilot training vs Boeing’s design cockup. What’s the difference? Why do people want to be harder on Boeing than on the pilots? One big reason is because the crashes only involved four pilots at two airlines, whereas Boeing’s screwup is present on every single MAX, flying with every airline that took delivery them.
 
WIederling
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Sep 19, 2019 6:41 am

ikramerica wrote:
Blame for failure to follow proper procedures for what to do when uncontrolled trim is encountered is not absolved simply because they didn’t specifically know why it was happening. That’s why there is a procedure.

In the first crash, the pilots the night before knew what to do and did it. Somehow the plane wasn’t fixed right AND the crew the next day wasn’t briefed. The pilots then seemed to forget their training and crashed. The airline had a hierarchy problem and a training problem and an information sharing problem.


IMU The runaway trim check list would drop you out before you switch off electric trim . ( trim running not continuous but intermittent.)

The dead heading pilot in the cockpit could work fully outside the scope of established procedures.
Analytical observation is what allowed him to "see the issue".
It was not _reflexive_ work the check list, duh simple (as you demand) that saved that flight.



ikramerica wrote:
Boeing made a crap system. All they can do is fix that. They can’t fix those airlines. Only the airlines can properly train their pilots and properly dispatch their aircraft.


Are you really using the fact that currently only a minority of pilots have extra beyond required capabilities
competence ( comparable to full but extra and hobbyist aerobatic training ) to paint this a majorly training issues and Boeing's
profit driven PITA of a design as a minor misdemeanor? "If airlines hadn't scrimped on proper established training"

That position is a bit hard to take IMHO.
Murphy is an optimist
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Sep 19, 2019 6:51 am

Many first tier suppliers are usually not paid until delivery occurs. Will we see some MAX suppliers file for Chapter 11?
How long can Boeing keep producing MAXes before they start having a cash flow problem and will need to start issuing debt notes or sell assets?
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Sep 19, 2019 6:53 am

aerolimani wrote:
Pilot training vs Boeing’s design cockup. What’s the difference? Why do people want to be harder on Boeing than on the pilots?


Because Boeing took an extra large effort to exchange safety for profits.
In that course subverting certification procedures in collusion with the FAA.

While pilot qualifications had been long established as sufficient via the NG in use numbers.

Putting the knee into Boeings neck is required. Improving on pilot training in the right places
is invariably a nice to have improvement of things. But that is fall out and not the cause.

The B Fan argument is comparable to:
Run over grandma on a pedestrian crossing and absolve the driver because "grandma didn't jump fast enough"
in day to day life a limber elder citizens would be desirable especially when looking in the mirror. ... :-)
Murphy is an optimist
 
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enzo011
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Sep 19, 2019 6:58 am

cledaybuck wrote:
You're joking, right?

Anyway, it appears the FAA is going to be meeting with other international regulators next week. https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/compani ... ar-AAHrrvC


About as serious as the post I replied to, take from that what you will.


kalvado wrote:
This is NOT the logic to follow. Each flight is as dangerous (or as safe) as the one after 1000000 cycles - assuming nothing changes between those flights, of course.
This is about risk assessment and mitigation - no-pax flights (much lower cost of the crash), most flying over sparesly populated areas (reducing cost of consequencies), probably specific training for pilots to watch out closely for certain things, specific pre-flight checkup before each flight, and maybe something else.
So while overall crash probability is unacceptably high for regular ops, total risk of a few flights is not that high.
You may rephrase that as "insurance bill for few flights is acceptable, but regular ops will be unprofitable".


Why are you replying to me though? Seems your reply is more apt to the post I replied to. The suggestion seems to be that because TC is allowing for flights and it is not crashing it should follow that the MAX is safe.


Revelation wrote:
Right, Transport Canada is known for authorizing flights of planes due to crash again, NOT!


My post made just as much sense and was just as serious as yours. Sometimes it helps to take some time off from a topic, especially when you have been at it for more than 6 months trying to defend when the team keeps screwing up.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Sep 19, 2019 7:17 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Many first tier suppliers are usually not paid until delivery occurs. Will we see some MAX suppliers file for Chapter 11?
How long can Boeing keep producing MAXes before they start having a cash flow problem and will need to start issuing debt notes or sell assets?


"forever" or until the last naive shareholder understands that he is sitting on a dead horse. :-)

I suppose the stored MAX are booked as inventory at the highest value ( sale or production, whatever is higher. Go back to 787 lawndarts accumulating so see established workings. )
Credit is taken out with these assets as backing. All the extra cost coming up is deferred production. not immediately visible.
Murphy is an optimist
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Sep 19, 2019 7:24 am

Interesting writeup on the NYT Langewiesche screed:
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2019/09/1 ... .html#more
Murphy is an optimist
 
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Carlos01
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Sep 19, 2019 8:13 am

ikramerica wrote:
In the first crash, the pilots the night before knew what to do and did it. Somehow the plane wasn’t fixed right AND the crew the next day wasn’t briefed. The pilots then seemed to forget their training and crashed. The airline had a hierarchy problem and a training problem and an information sharing problem.


The pilots are trained to know the plane's systems and how to deal with their malfunctions. MCAS was never trained, it was not known to them at all, they tried to apply something that they knew - which didn't exist for this problem. They didn't forget their training - they never got one, only because Boeing refused additional training for the pilots in favor of a fraudulent sales speech! Also the flight that survived had an extra man in the cockpit - I'm sure you know that.

ikramerica wrote:
In the second crash, the crew and the airline knew of the first crash, had months to find out what that crew did wrong in terms of not following the procedures, had time to become aware that the switches changed name but still needed to be turned off. The pilots kept the aircraft at a dangerous speed, failed to follow procedure (or failed to be able to because they were at a dangerous speed) and crashed.


We still don't know if the given "procedure" was even able to help their situation. Secondly, this was also not trained - because Boeing refused additional training for the pilots in favor of a fraudulent sales speech (sic). Greed @ Boeing had a fight with Safety @ Boeing, - we know who won. It could well be that this single "out of place" procedure for dealing with one of many potential problems, actually confused the pilots and they let everything else go they have been trained for. MCAS recovery procedures should have been thoroughly trained in a simulator as a part of the entire package, so that the pilots would know what to do in a complex environment, how all of that works holistically. This was not done, because Boeing refused additional training for the pilots in favor of a fraudulent sales speech. That's the only reason why it was not done. There is no excuse for that.

ikramerica wrote:
Boeing made a crap system. All they can do is fix that. They can’t fix those airlines. Only the airlines can properly train their pilots and properly dispatch their aircraft.


Even if both of the pilots end up dead in the cockpit, the plane is supposed to continue flying straight. Even with all electronics gone, engines gone, pilots gone, everything gone, the plane is stupposed to maintain balance and continue gliding. The plane is not supposed to attempt a suicide. The MAX is the first of it's kind - a perfectly fine functioning machine having a sudden deathwish out of the blue. Pilots are not trained for that - because no pilot would ever think that such a plane could have passed all certification procedures. The MAX did. Because Boeing was greedy and the FAA was weak and the rest of the world trusted both of them.

All in all, several people at Boeing should be thrown in jail, the keyes melted and thrown into the sea. There is no excuse for what they have done. They destroyed hundreds of families. Hundreds of human beings died horribly violent deaths. That should not be downplayed, that must not be forgotten, that just will not go away. Boeing does want people to forget it, and Boeing is "sympathetic" at the victims, and hey, that's just splendid. Well done. High ranking executives are being paid huge amounts of money for the reason that they make the right decisions, even ones which might make the next quarter outlook grimmer. Pushing through something like the MAX without any consideration for human lives, only for the sake of Boeing earnings and market position, is really below everything and anything. It's understandable because too many people are greedy - but that doens't make it right.

Long story short, in today's aviation you can blame the pilots only if they didn't follow what they were trained to do. Could the pilots have prevented the crashes by taking certain actions in the cockpit? Maybe. Like not taking off with that deathtrap in the firstplace. Can they be blamed for it? No way. If somebody wants to talk about 3rd world pilots - be my guest - but leave the MAX mass casualty events out of the context.
 
sgrow787
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Sep 19, 2019 8:25 am

WIederling wrote:
Interesting writeup on the NYT Langewiesche screed:
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2019/09/1 ... .html#more


Thanks for posting! Ill have a more complete read after work. Again thanks.
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PixelFlight
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Sep 19, 2019 8:39 am

WIederling wrote:
Interesting writeup on the NYT Langewiesche screed:
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2019/09/1 ... .html#more

Thanks! I found this in one of the comments:
"Peter Lemme, the satcom guru, was once an engineer at Boeing. He testified over technical MAX issue before Congress and wrote lot of technical details about it. He retweeted the NYT Mag piece with this comment:

Peter Lemme @Satcom_Guru
Blame the pilots.
Blame the training.
Blame the airline standards.
Imply rampant corruption at all levels.
Claim Airbus flight envelope protection is superior to Boeing.
Fumble the technical details.
Stack the quotes with lots of hearsay to drive the theme.
Ignore everything else"

In addition Peter Lemme have a link on this article:
https://newrepublic.com/article/154944/boeing-737-max-investigation-indonesia-lion-air-ethiopian-airlines-managerial-revolution
 
oschkosch
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Sep 19, 2019 10:23 am

sgrow787 wrote:
WIederling wrote:
Interesting writeup on the NYT Langewiesche screed:
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2019/09/1 ... .html#more


Thanks for posting! Ill have a more complete read after work. Again thanks.
Yes, thx a lot! Like I said earlier: Boeing is using the NYT for PR purposes only. The NYT article is a must read, but only because it shows to what lengths Boeing is prepared to go in order to bend public perception of the max.

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planecane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Sep 19, 2019 10:34 am

WIederling wrote:
ikramerica wrote:
Blame for failure to follow proper procedures for what to do when uncontrolled trim is encountered is not absolved simply because they didn’t specifically know why it was happening. That’s why there is a procedure.

In the first crash, the pilots the night before knew what to do and did it. Somehow the plane wasn’t fixed right AND the crew the next day wasn’t briefed. The pilots then seemed to forget their training and crashed. The airline had a hierarchy problem and a training problem and an information sharing problem.


IMU The runaway trim check list would drop you out before you switch off electric trim . ( trim running not continuous but intermittent.)

The dead heading pilot in the cockpit could work fully outside the scope of established procedures.
Analytical observation is what allowed him to "see the issue".
It was not _reflexive_ work the check list, duh simple (as you demand) that saved that flight.



This is not correct. The malfunction of MCAS caused a CONTINUOUS nose down trim for almost 10 seconds. No normal function of automatic trim would ever trim for 10 seconds straight with no interruption. It has been stated that the expectation of the FAA is that a runaway stabilizer would be recognized within 3 seconds. 3 seconds is a lot less than 10 seconds. 10 seconds is not a particularly short amount of time. Set a timer on your phone for 10 seconds and imagine the trim wheel zipping away for that amount of time.

What may have been a cause of confusion with respect to the NCC, is that after using the thumb switches to counteract the (what should have been recognized as runaway) trim, there was a pause of 5 seconds before the nose down trim started again. The NNC states that "if runaway continues" to move the cutout switches to cutout. Since there was a pause, you could make the case that it did not "continue." However, once it started again, the NNC would again be entered.

Strictly following the NNC verbatim should have led to a continuous cycle of an MCAS runaway followed by counteracting with the thumb switches. At some point, after the 10th or 15th or 20th cycle, common sense might kick in and the pilot might decide to move the switches to cutout. If the same thing happens 20 times in a row, I think that it should be reasonably determined that the failure is "continuing."

If a complete transcript of the CVR of Lion Air 610 is released, I would bet a large sum of money that there was never a discussion between the pilots where they determined the trim was not continuous and therefore did not constitute a runaway stabilizer.

For ET 302, unless the investigation determines that the electric trim was physically limited and could not return the stabilizer to an in-trim state, I will never comprehend why that crew was unable to recover. Unlike the crew of Lion Air 610 they were (or should have been from the EAD) aware of MCAS and the failure mode it could cause as well as what to do in order to recover. The EAD also detailed the other symptoms that could be seen concurrent with the MCAS induced runaway stabilizer.
 
dougbr2006
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Sep 19, 2019 11:05 am

I find the NYT article to be very journalistic. Though it may be prudent to ask where did the article writer get his information from as none of the detailed accident reports have yet been disclosed. The first from the Lion Air accident is due I believe around the end of October. So how does he conclude so much from preliminary information.

It has been Boeing's intention from day 1 to put the blame on anything or anyone but them.

They first tried to blame the pilots for not implementing the flight manual (Which turned out that MCAS wasn`t clearly mentioned in the Lion Air Flight Manual)
Then after Ethiopian they tried to blame inadequate training and knowledge of the system, plus low hour co-pilot. (Even though it has been shown that the crew did carry out the procedure but the MCAS had proved to be difficult to overcome)

The apparent facts really are :

1/ Boeing certified an aircraft that had a known flight characteristic which made it easier to stall if flown the same as the 737NG, so they implemented software to assist the pilot to fly the aircraft as if it were a 737NG. (Duping the flight crew)

2/ They made no mention of this MCAS system to their customers (Airlines), in the flight manual or in training material to the flight crews. (More Duping)

3/ Their sharing of information regarding the MCAS system with the FAA was to say the least shoddy especially regarding changes to the MCAS which gave the system more authority which apparently was not passed to the FAA. (Duping the legal entity responsible for aircraft safety)

4/ Reduced safety margins by using the input from a single sensor on any flight (AoA probe). Normally Boeing on flight critical systems relied on dual inputs as a minimum. (Duping Boeing Itself)

5/ Boeing had actually not activated the Angle of attack disagree warning light on the MAX which was standard on the 737NG and also did not inform airlines that it was now considered an option as Southwest only found out after the Lion Air accident. (Duping or Misinforming the Customers)

6/ Subsequent 737 MAX simulator tests have proven that even highly trained pilots found the MCAS system difficult to recover from with one pilot losing the aircraft in a similar way to the two crashes.

7/ It would seem that if MCAS gets control and its not overcome very quickly the aerodynamic forces kick in an the crew physically would have great difficulty re-trimming or pulling back o the stick as MCAS in its initial form kept resisting crew inputs.

It seems to me to be very unjust to blame either of the crash crews as they were trying to tame an animal which they didn't know, were not sufficiently informed or trained for and even the procedures that were in the manual had to be implemented so quickly at a flight critical period of the climb that the altitude factor gave them slim chance of a successful recovery which was evident after a highly experienced pilot lost a simulator flight.

Boeing should have done the honorable thing and admitted that MCAS though possibly not fully responsible for the accidents, certainly did not help in raising the chances of the flight crew to recover the aircraft, to the contrary assisted the aircraft to dive repeatedly and fight against the crews inputs whilst confusing the situation.

They should have then made good decisions on implementing the MCAS software update but also gone that bit extra by voluntarily adding a third integrated AoA sensor, disagree light and AoA indicator to fully close any safety issue, thereby getting back the full confidence of the FAA, Airlines and the flying public instead of an economic bodge job.

I find it difficult to credit a company that has Duped on so many things over the MAX and that continually tries to place blame on two flight crews did what they could to regain control of an aircraft that had basically been put forward as a direct 737NG replacement when in fact it is a wolf in sheep's clothing. Boeing's irresponsibility in not declaring fully form day one even to the FAA that the MAX was very different and was tweaked by software and sensor systems without backup, no disagree warning lights or AoA indicators shows just how low Boeing will go to try an gloss over their total failure to the Airlines, Crews and flying public.

The onus stops with Boeing and their list of failings in the design and certification of the MAX and their desire to keep to the base line of costs instead of safety.

I for one will not be flying on a B737 MAX until it has three sensor AoA system which means if Boeing has its way I probably never will.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Sep 19, 2019 11:11 am

TheF15Ace wrote:
morrisond wrote:

Yes UA pilots made a lot of mistakes in the past. Hard lessons were learned that led to the procedures they use in the cockpit and the concurrent training they take part in.

The question is though has ET learned anything or will they change anything in their training?


And yet ET's training seems to be better than some first world carriers like say Air Canada at least on their short haul Airbus fleet. Could be the same deficiencies could migrate over to their MAX training as well. How come no mention from someone who advocates for ''higher training standards for pilots globally''? :scratchchin:


Because the Previous poster was talking about ET and that is what I was responding too?

Sorry - I forgot - I must end every post with Boeing is Evil(which they are not but they did screw up royally) and this is not just an isolated training issue (which it is not - it is a global problem) or people will dig up posts from months ago and say I'm a Boeing apologist.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Sep 19, 2019 11:52 am

WIederling wrote:
The B Fan argument is comparable to:
Run over grandma on a pedestrian crossing and absolve the driver because "grandma didn't jump fast enough"
in day to day life a limber elder citizens would be desirable especially when looking in the mirror. ... :-)

Baloney, no one absolves Boeing.

Keep hearing what you want to hear, it's easier to get through your day that way.

oschkosch wrote:
Yes, thx a lot! Like I said earlier: Boeing is using the NYT for PR purposes only. The NYT article is a must read, but only because it shows to what lengths Boeing is prepared to go in order to bend public perception of the max.

Now NYT is part of the pro-Boeing cabal?

Ridiculous! Absurd!

All this because they print one article you aren't willing to take in?

Have you read any of the other articles they've printed on 737?

You do understand there are multiple opinions out there, right?

It's amusing to watch Team A shooting the messenger.

As above, any criticism of airlines or crews is viewed as absolution of Boeing so must be fought tooth and nail.
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Sep 19, 2019 12:01 pm

PixelFlight wrote:

Why is it that folks cannot just stick to the facts and make their assumptions from that, what exactly did Trump have to do with the MAX other than forcing the FAA to accept grounding the a/c? Trump inauguration was a key timeline in the MAX evolution?

"It was way better, a stock that had more than doubled since the Trump inauguration, outperforming the Dow in the 22 months before Lion Air 610 plunged into the Java Sea.
"

I will have to revisit my 787 history, I always thought Boeing was also looking to break the union stranglehold by moving production to the southeast.

What's the benefit to the below, that the world accepts the Wall St. financial dealings, the article makes it out to be a Boeing evil, not the world.
"After his testimony, a dead-eyed Njoroge stood in the hallway for nearly three hours, granting interviews to the dozens of journalists who needed exclusive footage to anchor their packages. He told me he wasn’t surprised that Boeing’s stock hadn’t suffered more since the company had killed his family. He would never buy it himself, of course, but even now it would be hard to justify leaving it out of a client’s portfolio. "

So we now have two articles, one supposed more technical and the other dealing with management failings, point counterpoint.
I can only hope that when the final reports of both crashes are released they are just details and not similar principles of point counterpoint.
In one as soon as blame the pilots surface we turn out and in the other as soon as we blame the financial process and greedy investors we do the same, in-between there is a wealth of information that we can review and help us to decide for ourselves what we think happened, is happening and will continue to happen.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Sep 19, 2019 12:34 pm

Some interesting comments from the FAA:

https://aviationweek.com/commercial-avi ... 63fb346ee5
LAS VEGAS—The FAA has considerable work to do before clearing the Boeing 737 MAX to fly again, but once satisfied, the agency will consider lifting its ban even if other regulators remain unconvinced, FAA Administrator Steve Dickson said.

“We are working very hard to keep everyone aligned,” Dickson said at the National Air Traffic Controllers Association Communicating for Safety Conference here Sept. 18. “It may get to the point where we have to make our own decision.”

That time will not be soon, however.

“Not everything is knowable now. We haven’t seen the final system architecture from Boeing yet,” Dickson said, adding that Boeing is “close” to submitting its final package.


So, Boeing still "close" to submitting its fixes.

When does "early 4Q" officially end?
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PixelFlight
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Sep 19, 2019 12:35 pm

par13del wrote:
So we now have two articles, one supposed more technical and the other dealing with management failings, point counterpoint.
I can only hope that when the final reports of both crashes are released they are just details and not similar principles of point counterpoint.
In one as soon as blame the pilots surface we turn out and in the other as soon as we blame the financial process and greedy investors we do the same, in-between there is a wealth of information that we can review and help us to decide for ourselves what we think happened, is happening and will continue to happen.

At least this situation shows how big the disagreement are regarding the 737-8/9 MAX safety...
The two reports are expected to contains each at least a root cause analysis and many safety recommendations. There interpretation will be inevitably the source of hot debates, there implementation would be far less observed, as usual, unfortunately.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Sep 19, 2019 12:47 pm

scbriml wrote:
When does "early 4Q" officially end?
There is not "offical" end. That's why the it was quoted this way in the first place (I know you know all this). One could argue the end of early Q4 is anywhere from the second week of October up until November 15.
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TheF15Ace
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Sep 19, 2019 12:56 pm

morrisond wrote:
TheF15Ace wrote:
morrisond wrote:

Yes UA pilots made a lot of mistakes in the past. Hard lessons were learned that led to the procedures they use in the cockpit and the concurrent training they take part in.

The question is though has ET learned anything or will they change anything in their training?


And yet ET's training seems to be better than some first world carriers like say Air Canada at least on their short haul Airbus fleet. Could be the same deficiencies could migrate over to their MAX training as well. How come no mention from someone who advocates for ''higher training standards for pilots globally''? :scratchchin:


Because the Previous poster was talking about ET and that is what I was responding too?

Sorry - I forgot - I must end every post with Boeing is Evil(which they are not but they did screw up royally) and this is not just an isolated training issue (which it is not - it is a global problem) or people will dig up posts from months ago and say I'm a Boeing apologist.


I was just making sure that anybody new to the forum was aware of what you said and what you actually meant. For those who followed the ET crash/MAX grounding threads from the start, you adding that sob story above to the end of each of your posts would only be a waste of time and bandwidth.
Last edited by TheF15Ace on Thu Sep 19, 2019 1:06 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Sep 19, 2019 1:03 pm

scbriml wrote:
Some interesting comments from the FAA:

https://aviationweek.com/commercial-avi ... 63fb346ee5
LAS VEGAS—The FAA has considerable work to do before clearing the Boeing 737 MAX to fly again, but once satisfied, the agency will consider lifting its ban even if other regulators remain unconvinced, FAA Administrator Steve Dickson said.

“We are working very hard to keep everyone aligned,” Dickson said at the National Air Traffic Controllers Association Communicating for Safety Conference here Sept. 18. “It may get to the point where we have to make our own decision.”

That time will not be soon, however.

“Not everything is knowable now. We haven’t seen the final system architecture from Boeing yet,” Dickson said, adding that Boeing is “close” to submitting its final package.


So, Boeing still "close" to submitting its fixes.

When does "early 4Q" officially end?

Well we do have 10 more days to go in September until the end of Boeing stated submission date to the FAA, so ........in 11 days time......we can officially increase the speculation time to 3rd Qtr 2021 or infinity.
 
majano
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Sep 19, 2019 1:07 pm

morrisond wrote:
cledaybuck wrote:
scbriml wrote:
When does "early 4Q" officially end?
There is not "offical" end. That's why the it was quoted this way in the first place (I know you know all this). One could argue the end of early Q4 is anywhere from the second week of October up until November 15.


If they use the Airbus definition of the 4Q - Early 4Q could be anything up to Dec.31, anything after Dec 31 - Late 4Q.

Rubbish! Everyone knows that is Q5.
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Sep 19, 2019 1:10 pm

morrisond wrote:
cledaybuck wrote:
scbriml wrote:
When does "early 4Q" officially end?
There is not "offical" end. That's why the it was quoted this way in the first place (I know you know all this). One could argue the end of early Q4 is anywhere from the second week of October up until November 15.


If they use the Airbus definition of the 4Q - Early 4Q could be anything up to Dec.31, anything after Dec 31 - Late 4Q.

Well it all depends on whether they have one for sales and a different one for maintenance, we know sales is sometime in the new year from past years sales records.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Sep 19, 2019 1:44 pm

scbriml wrote:
Some interesting comments from the FAA:

https://aviationweek.com/commercial-avi ... 63fb346ee5
LAS VEGAS—The FAA has considerable work to do before clearing the Boeing 737 MAX to fly again, but once satisfied, the agency will consider lifting its ban even if other regulators remain unconvinced, FAA Administrator Steve Dickson said.

“We are working very hard to keep everyone aligned,” Dickson said at the National Air Traffic Controllers Association Communicating for Safety Conference here Sept. 18. “It may get to the point where we have to make our own decision.”

That time will not be soon, however.

“Not everything is knowable now. We haven’t seen the final system architecture from Boeing yet,” Dickson said, adding that Boeing is “close” to submitting its final package.

So, Boeing still "close" to submitting its fixes.

When does "early 4Q" officially end?

DM's last statements ( https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... countries/ ) moved it to "around November", and given that October and December are both "around November", we have all aspects covered!

Basically, this is a negotiation that is being conducted via the press.

DM wants the earliest date, FAA wants as much time as it can get, but not so much as to upset other stakeholders.

If nothing else, we will get an update from DM on Oct 31 as it appears likely he will be testifying before Congress on that date, along with John Hamilton, the chief engineer of Boeing’s Commercial Airplanes division.

Ref: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ethi ... SKBN1W22QI
Last edited by Revelation on Thu Sep 19, 2019 1:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Spetsnaz55
Posts: 109
Joined: Wed Feb 20, 2019 2:38 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Thu Sep 19, 2019 1:45 pm

Q4 at Boeing starts sept 28th

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