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trpmb6
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 03, 2019 2:59 pm

Babyshark wrote:
trpmb6 wrote:
Ugh. Read one page of replies and was quickly reminded why I have stayed out of this thread recently.

Boeing is not in financial trouble. They will be just fine. As are all the suppliers.

Max deliveries by my estimate will begin in early q4. Year end financials will be fine.


Yeah I’m sure Boeing and it’s suppliers sleep well every night over the Max. It’s no big deal. It’s only money.


Again, divorced from reality. Suppliers are still building at 52 a month. The main hit is that they were supposed to be at 57 a month right now. I'm guessing suppliers are taking this opportunity to catch up, improve quality and processes, etc.
 
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ikolkyo
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 03, 2019 4:07 pm

767333ER wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
traindoc wrote:
Most all of the MAX discussion is about flaws and fixes for the MCAS and flight control systems. But what about the possibility of Boeing having to declare bankruptcy? The 737 is their cash flow cow. But now that has dried up with deliveries on hold. And this could last well into 2020. And how much time, effort and manpower will be required to update all of the undelivered MAX A/C, so they can be delivered? And how much pilot training/ retraining will be needed before they can fly again? How much will the FAA and other regulators fine Boeing? Likely to be in the billions, not millions. Lastly, there is the loss of orders and cancellations which will mean reduced upfront cash payments. So Boeing is in a somewhat precarious position right now, and the effect on its cash flow may be worse than is apparent.


Lol, Boeing is not going to go bankrupt.

Yes whether it be though defense contracts, bail out, or whatever else they may try the government Republican or Democrat would have to ensure Boeing doesn’t go bankrupt otherwise they’d be in trouble... so you’re right


So how many times are you going to respond to me? Not even going to bother with your comments.
 
art
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 03, 2019 4:19 pm

traindoc wrote:
... And how much pilot training/ retraining will be needed before they can fly again? How much will the FAA and other regulators fine Boeing? Likely to be in the billions, not millions. Lastly, there is the loss of orders and cancellations which will mean reduced upfront cash payments. So Boeing is in a somewhat precarious position right now, and the effect on its cash flow may be worse than is apparent.


Once they can start to deliver re-worked stored frames (*Feb/Mar 2020?), I would think Boeing move to very positive cashflow. I imagine that suppliers will have been paid for everything supplied to build the frames produced in 2019 Q2 and 2019 Q3. Yes, $billions to pay out in compensation but that will be paid out later, won't it?

* Always assuming no more issues come to light to delay re-certification...

As for cacellations, I would expect some once they are penalty-free. I think that the world economy was heading for a downward turn before Mr President embarked on a trade war with China so I can see some demand falling away. However I doubt that will free up production slots that other customers will not want to take up.
 
SelseyBill
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 03, 2019 5:52 pm

ikolkyo wrote:
traindoc wrote:
Most all of the MAX discussion is about flaws and fixes for the MCAS and flight control systems. But what about the possibility of Boeing having to declare bankruptcy? The 737 is their cash flow cow. But now that has dried up with deliveries on hold. And this could last well into 2020. And how much time, effort and manpower will be required to update all of the undelivered MAX A/C, so they can be delivered? And how much pilot training/ retraining will be needed before they can fly again? How much will the FAA and other regulators fine Boeing? Likely to be in the billions, not millions. Lastly, there is the loss of orders and cancellations which will mean reduced upfront cash payments. So Boeing is in a somewhat precarious position right now, and the effect on its cash flow may be worse than is apparent.


Lol, Boeing is not going to go bankrupt.


.....too big to fail eh?

How many times have we heard that before in corporate history........ The 737 is Boeings' cash cow. Boeing are still swallowing 787 debt and deferments, the 777 is at the brink of a new program with its largest customer re-assessing their order-book, and the 797 looks aways off at the moment.

I have friends and colleagues who work for Boeing, so I want them to succeed, but this situation is getting very serious.

You cannot defy the financial laws of gravity forever.......
 
SelseyBill
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 03, 2019 6:07 pm

par13del wrote:
Well, if they have to watch US carriers fly the MAX for months before they have enough faith in the FAA to approve the a/c for flight in their regions, so be it, there really is nothing that Boeing or the FAA can about that, trust is earned not bought.
I can see WN being first-up to get the MAX airborne again, but this is going to be much more difficult for AA and UA, as they will carry international passengers on domestic connections. I cant see a situation where AA and UA carry BA and LH ticketed passengers and the MAX still be grounded by EASA.......

par13del wrote:
The harsh reality is that the the FAA is tasked with the oversight of the aviation industry in the USA, no where else, their expertise can be requested, but at the end of the day, their mission is the USA. So if they put Boeing through their ropes and the a/c passes and meets all their criteria, they can say now go see what the rest of the world wants and we will wait, however, if they do such one would expect back lash across the political spectrum as well as within the nation. If that is their intent, I expect they would leave their testing for last to ensure no whistle blower leaks that they already approved MCAS 2.0 and their other requirements but are waiting for the clearance of "foreign requirements".
....agreed.......

par13del wrote:
Interesting thing is that other than when initially announced, we have not revisited the EASA requirements in detail to see whether some or any of them can be deferred to the production line versus prior to return to flight. Example, how do they make the trim wheel larger or easier to use without a cockpit redesign, after all, it got smaller because more space was needed.
......one of many hurdles for MAX to jump yet, I personally don't see it flying now until well into 2020.......

What simply cannot happen now for the sake of the whole airline industry, is for MAX to be rushed back into service, only for there to be another serious incident.
 
MSPNWA
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 03, 2019 6:28 pm

SelseyBill wrote:
How many times have we heard that before in corporate history........ The 737 is Boeings' cash cow. Boeing are still swallowing 787 debt and deferments, the 777 is at the brink of a new program with its largest customer re-assessing their order-book, and the 797 looks aways off at the moment.

I have friends and colleagues who work for Boeing, so I want them to succeed, but this situation is getting very serious.

You cannot defy the financial laws of gravity forever.......


You're missing the 787 also being a cash cow. And then the rest of Boeing's portfolio is bringing in revenue. They could survive a MAX grounding for a long time. The financials don't support a serious situation.
 
ArgentoSystems
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 03, 2019 6:38 pm

MSPNWA wrote:

You're missing the 787 also being a cash cow. And then the rest of Boeing's portfolio is bringing in revenue. They could survive a MAX grounding for a long time. The financials don't support a serious situation.

Sure, Boeing can survive without 737 for a long time, or even forever. BCA, however, not so much. Too much dead weight and not enough income.
 
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DocLightning
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 03, 2019 8:22 pm

MSPNWA wrote:
You're missing the 787 also being a cash cow.


While the 787 is now making a production profit, the overall program still has not been paid off and it may never turn an overall profit.

And with the 737 MAX delays, the additional development costs, penalties, and lawsuits may mean that that program never turns an overall profit, either.
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
-Carl Sagan
 
MSPNWA
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 03, 2019 8:26 pm

DocLightning wrote:
While the 787 is now making a production profit, the overall program still has not been paid off and it may never turn an overall profit.

And with the 737 MAX delays, the additional development costs, penalties, and lawsuits may mean that that program never turns an overall profit, either.


That's all irrelevant to Boeing's current financial position. The penalty has long been paid. It's a paper hurt now, and that doesn't have a bearing on Boeing's ability to survive a MAX grounding. It's a huge cash cow from here on out.

It's going to take many more quarters (or no return at all) for the MAX to not turn a program profit.
Last edited by MSPNWA on Sat Aug 03, 2019 8:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 03, 2019 8:27 pm

https://www.unionleader.com/news/busine ... 5ab00.html says:

Southwest Airlines CEO Gary Kelly says there is “no better 175-seat airplane” than the now-grounded Boeing 737 Max jet, despite critics who think the airline is too cozy with the manufacturer.
....
“Part of the tragedy is that that’s a great airplane,” Kelly said. “We are dedicated to this airplane.”
....
“As a practical matter, if we want to diversify the fleet, it would take us years.”

Pretty natural things to say when you have $billions invested in the 737, and WN is not alone in that.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
olle
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 03, 2019 9:14 pm

The problem for FAA is partly that under the Trump administration things decisions that is always a balance between evidence and politics seems to have been moving from an evidence based decision to a policy driven organisation.

FAA pays here the price for a general impression how the grounding of the 737 was handled by mr Trump and FAA. So in short Trumps handling of climate change too FAA shows the same trend.

Now we comes to trade. Now the trade war usa china just heated up. China can even use the FAA f**kup to hurt usa trade easily by pointing that 737 need to be up to more modern standards.

USA first, and expertise does not Matter. Now we see the cost of this policy.
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 03, 2019 9:25 pm

olle wrote:
The problem for FAA is partly that under the Trump administration things decisions that is always a balance between evidence and politics seems to have been moving from an evidence based decision to a policy driven organisation.

So you are saying that rather than grounding the MAX like the rest of the world, Trump should have supported the FAA and allowed the MAX to continue flying?
 
olle
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 03, 2019 10:10 pm

par13del wrote:
olle wrote:
The problem for FAA is partly that under the Trump administration things decisions that is always a balance between evidence and politics seems to have been moving from an evidence based decision to a policy driven organisation.

So you are saying that rather than grounding the MAX like the rest of the world, Trump should have supported the FAA and allowed the MAX to continue flying?



I am actually saying the opposite. As I understand it FAA would not have taking the grounding decision if not other nations and regions already done it too obvious that they were trying to play games.

Mr Trumps tweets from the days before The international grounding made it quit clear that FAA should not have done anything.

I have the impression that behind the scenes there was a lot of pressure from outside usa before FAA was forced against their will and this follows a general trend that the rest of the world have right now that the rules have changed in the administration of usa.
 
aryonoco
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 03, 2019 11:27 pm

xmp125a wrote:
Virtual737 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
You wrote in assembly because every clock cycle mattered


This, and the fact that writing in "machine code" (assembly) you have pretty much direct control over the clock cycles. ie it is very clear how many clock cycles each instruction will take - knowing this is often more important than writing the fastest code.


Not to dispute this, but in modern processors (e.g. Intel PC processor families for the past 15 years or so) you actually don't know this even if you write directly in the machine code. This is another reason to stick to ancient architectures that are now decades old.


This is correct. All modern processors have an internal opcode that significantly differs from the published assembly language. Modern Intel processors are RISC machines internally and they translate the x86 instruction set internally to this RISC language (which is not published). This is also true of ARMv8.

The last Intel core that directly executed x86 was the Silvermont Atom that was discontinued in 2013.

If you need to ensure that your instructions are performed within certain clock cycles, you use a real time OS like VxWorks. Writing machine code does not guarantee that anymore.

Of course I'm talking about modern processors, I'm no expert when it comes to machinery used in the 737MAX. From what I've read in this thread it uses a 80286? In which case of course writing machine code is very much possible (and probably preferable).
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sat Aug 03, 2019 11:51 pm

olle wrote:
I have the impression that behind the scenes there was a lot of pressure from outside usa before FAA was forced against their will and this follows a general trend that the rest of the world have right now that the rules have changed in the administration of usa.

Interesting, if you read further upthread you will see a number of posters saying they believe the FAA will ignore the international community, do not have them involved all evidence to the contrary and will clear the MAX over their objections.
Time will tell.
 
MrBretz
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 04, 2019 12:21 am

aryonoco wrote:
xmp125a wrote:
Virtual737 wrote:

This, and the fact that writing in "machine code" (assembly) you have pretty much direct control over the clock cycles. ie it is very clear how many clock cycles each instruction will take - knowing this is often more important than writing the fastest code.


Not to dispute this, but in modern processors (e.g. Intel PC processor families for the past 15 years or so) you actually don't know this even if you write directly in the machine code. This is another reason to stick to ancient architectures that are now decades old.


This is correct. All modern processors have an internal opcode that significantly differs from the published assembly language. Modern Intel processors are RISC machines internally and they translate the x86 instruction set internally to this RISC language (which is not published). This is also true of ARMv8.

The last Intel core that directly executed x86 was the Silvermont Atom that was discontinued in 2013.

If you need to ensure that your instructions are performed within certain clock cycles, you use a real time OS like VxWorks. Writing machine code does not guarantee that anymore.

Of course I'm talking about modern processors, I'm no expert when it comes to machinery used in the 737MAX. From what I've read in this thread it uses a 80286? In which case of course writing machine code is very much possible (and probably preferable).


The way I understand VxWorks, is that you get a thinned down OS that allows you to lock jobs in memory and run them at intervals. I would imagine, those real time jobs do not do page faulting either. And the overhead of the OS is light for real time, i.e. high priority jobs. So you can get things done close to writing everything in assembly language with a custom executive. And the beauty of of VxWorks, is you get all the industry standard stuff(ethernet, etc.) so you don't have to write it yourself.

It would be great if someone who actually has programmed using VxWorks can tell us about it. I have scanned stuff on the internet, but it just wets my whistle. Someone this site mentioned Boeing used it for the 787 and possibly the 777.

I wonder if there have something like VxWorks on the 737 processors or they have a custom executive controlling everything. My bet is custom from what I have read here.
 
RickNRoll
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 04, 2019 12:59 am

kayik wrote:
RickNRoll wrote:
flyingphil wrote:
Just to add to the fun..

https://www.thestranger.com/slog/2019/0 ... g-is-broke

Will re-visit when the Q1 2020 thread starts :white:


So the Boeing mountains of cash are a mirage according to this article. I will wait to see if the story has any legs.


You don't have to wait, Boeing reports quarterly. They borrowed 11.7b in the first half to repay debts due, buy own shares and distribute dividends. Currently they are issuing bonds for another 5.5b to finance Embraer JV for 4b, the rest for daily use.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... nt-venture
I can't see any way to justify borrowing money to fund a share buyback.
 
Thorkel
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 04, 2019 1:39 am

MrBretz wrote:
aryonoco wrote:
xmp125a wrote:

Not to dispute this, but in modern processors (e.g. Intel PC processor families for the past 15 years or so) you actually don't know this even if you write directly in the machine code. This is another reason to stick to ancient architectures that are now decades old.


This is correct. All modern processors have an internal opcode that significantly differs from the published assembly language. Modern Intel processors are RISC machines internally and they translate the x86 instruction set internally to this RISC language (which is not published). This is also true of ARMv8.

The last Intel core that directly executed x86 was the Silvermont Atom that was discontinued in 2013.

If you need to ensure that your instructions are performed within certain clock cycles, you use a real time OS like VxWorks. Writing machine code does not guarantee that anymore.

Of course I'm talking about modern processors, I'm no expert when it comes to machinery used in the 737MAX. From what I've read in this thread it uses a 80286? In which case of course writing machine code is very much possible (and probably preferable).


The way I understand VxWorks, is that you get a thinned down OS that allows you to lock jobs in memory and run them at intervals. I would imagine, those real time jobs do not do page faulting either. And the overhead of the OS is light for real time, i.e. high priority jobs. So you can get things done close to writing everything in assembly language with a custom executive. And the beauty of of VxWorks, is you get all the industry standard stuff(ethernet, etc.) so you don't have to write it yourself.

It would be great if someone who actually has programmed using VxWorks can tell us about it. I have scanned stuff on the internet, but it just wets my whistle. Someone this site mentioned Boeing used it for the 787 and possibly the 777.

I wonder if there have something like VxWorks on the 737 processors or they have a custom executive controlling everything. My bet is custom from what I have read here.


There are multiple different versions of VxWorks, but ‘vanilla’ is simply a lightweight real-time OS. Concurrency is through tasks (which are analogous to threads in POSIX/Unix world - so all tasks share memory space. Tasks do not have there own protected memory space as per a process model). The scheduler allows priority based scheduling, and basic scheduler models (so FIFO, Round Robin, etc based on task priorities). There is a POSIX layer which gives you a POSIX API. I used this in the early 2000’s and it was absolutely awful in terms of POSIX-like behaviour. Hopefully it’s better now.

The advantages of VxWorks are largely it’s lightweight, it supports all sorts of simple processors (so no process model means you don’t need to support processors that have an MMU, and therefore things like 68000’s, 80286’s and simple Arm processors are supported) and writing a board specific package for a new or custom machine is pretty straightforward.

For the most part, people still write apps in C or C++ for non safety stuff, and high SIL safety stuff will likely need a restricted language subset for high integrity (so MISRA C, ADA or SPARK). Writing machine code for a safety related or critical app is typically frowned upon and would not result in standards compliance.

I haven’t worked with VxWorks for a while now, but I can’t imagine it’s changed too much. VxWorks is odd in comparison to just about any OS out there. If you want hard real-time and something thats look more like a Unix, then QNX or LynxOS are the way to go.
 
Babyshark
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 04, 2019 1:47 am

trpmb6 wrote:
Babyshark wrote:
trpmb6 wrote:
Ugh. Read one page of replies and was quickly reminded why I have stayed out of this thread recently.

Boeing is not in financial trouble. They will be just fine. As are all the suppliers.

Max deliveries by my estimate will begin in early q4. Year end financials will be fine.


Yeah I’m sure Boeing and it’s suppliers sleep well every night over the Max. It’s no big deal. It’s only money.


Again, divorced from reality. Suppliers are still building at 52 a month. The main hit is that they were supposed to be at 57 a month right now. I'm guessing suppliers are taking this opportunity to catch up, improve quality and processes, etc.


Oh wow, I bet youre right and those suppliers and Boeing are loving this.

Because with only 52 a month instead of 57 it is a great chance to take a breather and celebrate being a part of a program that makes a product the world seems to view as a deathtrap. I mean this has to be good for business, amirite?

I mean Airbus should take a 12 month break from delivering 320Ns and enjoy all the good stuff that comes with that.
 
maint123
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 04, 2019 3:42 am

trpmb6 wrote:
Babyshark wrote:
trpmb6 wrote:
Ugh. Read one page of replies and was quickly reminded why I have stayed out of this thread recently.

Boeing is not in financial trouble. They will be just fine. As are all the suppliers.

Max deliveries by my estimate will begin in early q4. Year end financials will be fine.


Yeah I’m sure Boeing and it’s suppliers sleep well every night over the Max. It’s no big deal. It’s only money.


Again, divorced from reality. Suppliers are still building at 52 a month. The main hit is that they were supposed to be at 57 a month right now. I'm guessing suppliers are taking this opportunity to catch up, improve quality and processes, etc.

Would be much smarter to slow down to maybe 10 a month. The future of this plane is not clear and inspite of Boeing's best efforts, the technical issues might turn out to be insurmountable.
Is starting the NG production non viable at this time, from both a technical standpoint and as competition for the Neo ?
 
MrBretz
Posts: 557
Joined: Tue Jun 14, 2016 9:13 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 04, 2019 4:37 am

Thorkel, thanks for the VxWorks overview. What’s your guess on an OS for the computers aboard the MAX?
 
Agrajag
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 04, 2019 5:27 am

Talking hypothetically, if the Max is never allowed to be a commercial passenger aircraft again, could some of the grounded frames be adapted to a P-8 type of aircraft that operates under a special certificate? Or cargo?
The plural of anecdote is anecdotes, not data.
Slartibartfast had a point
 
olle
Posts: 2378
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 04, 2019 6:47 am

par13del wrote:
olle wrote:
I have the impression that behind the scenes there was a lot of pressure from outside usa before FAA was forced against their will and this follows a general trend that the rest of the world have right now that the rules have changed in the administration of usa.

Interesting, if you read further upthread you will see a number of posters saying they believe the FAA will ignore the international community, do not have them involved all evidence to the contrary and will clear the MAX over their objections.
Time will tell.


FAA is probably sitting between the wall and the hard place right now.

One one hand an white house administration that seems to believe that they can interfere in any countries politically regarding trade and other agreements without consequences,

On the other side Boeing who is one of the biggest us export products and probably pays FAA a lot of fees per year besides the fact that from a knowledge point of many employees probably is ex Boeing.

The third, until now EASA with similar interest with AIRBUS has been their partner with shared interests.

FAA was taken with their panties down, approving a product that was not done, and their management thinking too much of the short term interest of boeing not the public, nor on the behalf of Easa or the chinese authorizies.

I am shure that the chinese (now with their polititians involved because of trade war) and easa requesting detailed answers to their questions. And suddenly they asks questions that the either FAA missed or management avoided like the one with unprotected wires.

So the answers to the international community getting adjusted in such way so they do not need to say that they messed up, because if they say that the handling of 787 and 777x is in the air. I am shure that 777x and future models of 787 will be effected.

The employees and experts at FAA being misstreated as professionals and run under bus by their managent now start to share their experiences. The problem is that the international communitybreads this as well and starts to ask questions.

Still Easa is on holiday. In september they are back.

We will need a lot of popcorn.
 
RickNRoll
Posts: 1869
Joined: Fri Jan 06, 2012 9:30 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 04, 2019 7:22 am

This isn't good. Boeing knew about MCAS risk before the crashes.

NEW YORK: 

Even before the Lion Air and Ethiopian Airlines crashes claimed 346 lives, Boeing flight tests had revealed problems similar to those encountered by pilots on the ill-fated 737 MAX flights.

Company officials learned that its MCAS anti-stall system -- which is at the center of both accidents -- activated within minutes of takeoff, repeatedly pushing the nose of the aircraft down even when the plane was operating in normal conditions at lower speed.

This discovery, recounted to news agency AFP by two former Boeing engineers who spoke on the condition of anonymity, suggested that mastering the MCAS was important for safely flying the MAX.

The MCAS should have been closely vetted by regulators, and procedures for operating the system should have been included in plane manuals and highlighted during pilot training.

But none of that happened.



Story to be confirmed but devastating if true.
https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/behind- ... re-2080007
Last edited by RickNRoll on Sun Aug 04, 2019 7:22 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
WIederling
Posts: 9348
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 04, 2019 7:25 am

MrBretz wrote:
aryonoco wrote:
xmp125a wrote:

Not to dispute this, but in modern processors (e.g. Intel PC processor families for the past 15 years or so) you actually don't know this even if you write directly in the machine code. This is another reason to stick to ancient architectures that are now decades old.


This is correct. All modern processors have an internal opcode that significantly differs from the published assembly language. Modern Intel processors are RISC machines internally and they translate the x86 instruction set internally to this RISC language (which is not published). This is also true of ARMv8.

The last Intel core that directly executed x86 was the Silvermont Atom that was discontinued in 2013.

If you need to ensure that your instructions are performed within certain clock cycles, you use a real time OS like VxWorks. Writing machine code does not guarantee that anymore.

Of course I'm talking about modern processors, I'm no expert when it comes to machinery used in the 737MAX. From what I've read in this thread it uses a 80286? In which case of course writing machine code is very much possible (and probably preferable).


The way I understand VxWorks, is that you get a thinned down OS that allows you to lock jobs in memory and run them at intervals. I would imagine, those real time jobs do not do page faulting either. And the overhead of the OS is light for real time, i.e. high priority jobs. So you can get things done close to writing everything in assembly language with a custom executive. And the beauty of of VxWorks, is you get all the industry standard stuff(ethernet, etc.) so you don't have to write it yourself.

It would be great if someone who actually has programmed using VxWorks can tell us about it. I have scanned stuff on the internet, but it just wets my whistle. Someone this site mentioned Boeing used it for the 787 and possibly the 777.

I wonder if there have something like VxWorks on the 737 processors or they have a custom executive controlling everything. My bet is custom from what I have read here.


you can use whatever language you like. ( with reservations.)
What is incompatible with Hard Realtime requirements is page faults, cache misses, all things that break deterministic behaviour.
I've worked quite a bit with RT designs for instrumentation/data aquisition.
But I only pushed the things that required RT behaviour under the RT part of the OS.
The rest ( housekeeping, moving the loot away, ..) remained in the regular linux environment.
Murphy is an optimist
 
aryonoco
Posts: 681
Joined: Fri May 11, 2012 1:51 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 04, 2019 7:37 am

Thorkel wrote:
I haven’t worked with VxWorks for a while now, but I can’t imagine it’s changed too much. VxWorks is odd in comparison to just about any OS out there. If you want hard real-time and something thats look more like a Unix, then QNX or LynxOS are the way to go.


The last time I touched VxWorks was also over a decade ago. The POSIX compatibility APIs were still a joke, in fact it made the old Windows NT 4.0 POSIX layer look decent by comparison. Even simple things like pthreads were missing.

Programming in QNX is MUCH nicer, in fact modern QNX comes with the Qt toolkit which IMO is the best C++ toolkit out there. QNX is very popular in the automotive industry, I have no idea about its suitability and use in the aviation industry.

MrBretz wrote:
Thorkel, thanks for the VxWorks overview. What’s your guess on an OS for the computers aboard the MAX?


All of the relevant OSes that I know of that existed at that time such as pSOS or DNIX ran on the Motorola 68000 (or its derivates). I don't know of any RTOS that existed in the early to mid 80s and ran on the 80286, so I'm going to assume it's something in-house/custom made.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 04, 2019 8:04 am

Revelation wrote:
https://www.unionleader.com/news/business/southwest-ceo-on-max-there-s-no-better--seat/article_e450b9ec-de8e-5fa5-ab79-27d9c4e5ab00.html says:

Southwest Airlines CEO Gary Kelly says there is “no better 175-seat airplane” than the now-grounded Boeing 737 Max jet, despite critics who think the airline is too cozy with the manufacturer.
....
“Part of the tragedy is that that’s a great airplane,” Kelly said. “We are dedicated to this airplane.”
....
“As a practical matter, if we want to diversify the fleet, it would take us years.”

Pretty natural things to say when you have $billions invested in the 737, and WN is not alone in that.


Most likely just a fact, as the IAG order shows that the MAX is a great choice when you look at the performance of the plane.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 04, 2019 8:30 am

seahawk wrote:
Revelation wrote:
https://www.unionleader.com/news/business/southwest-ceo-on-max-there-s-no-better--seat/article_e450b9ec-de8e-5fa5-ab79-27d9c4e5ab00.html says:

Southwest Airlines CEO Gary Kelly says there is “no better 175-seat airplane” than the now-grounded Boeing 737 Max jet, despite critics who think the airline is too cozy with the manufacturer.
....
“Part of the tragedy is that that’s a great airplane,” Kelly said. “We are dedicated to this airplane.”
....
“As a practical matter, if we want to diversify the fleet, it would take us years.”

Pretty natural things to say when you have $billions invested in the 737, and WN is not alone in that.


Most likely just a fact, as the IAG order shows that the MAX is a great choice when you look at the performance of the plane.



So true, the Max's current fuel consumption is industry leading!!
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 04, 2019 11:46 am

olle wrote:
Still Easa is on holiday. In september they are back.

I wonder if that holiday had any bearing on Boeing's timeline for fix submission in September / October and approval 4th Quarter?
 
Thorkel
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 04, 2019 11:46 am

MrBretz wrote:
Thorkel, thanks for the VxWorks overview. What’s your guess on an OS for the computers aboard the MAX?


I personally doubt there is one.

At the risk of teaching people to suck eggs you could kind of put OSs on a spectrum. At one there’s ‘No OS’ (and no BIOS/EFI or anything like that). The processor simply starts reading instructions from a memory address (likely 0x0) and the single program/image has been created in it’s entirety by the embedded system writers. This can include basic scheduling - cyclic FIFO and Round Robin schedulers aren’t hard.

On the other end you’ve got ‘full modern OS’ with filesystems, networking stacks, the ability to load and run programs from filesystems. This is your Linux/Windows/etc.

VxWorks is toward the ‘No OS’ end of the spectrum. It’s really a simply kernel with a whole load of optional libraries that allow you to build a single firmware image. Filesystems? Optional and very often not required. Networking stack? Optional. GUIs? Quite often not. These systems won’t be downloading new programs to a filesystem, loading them into RAM and running them - everything the system will ever do will be built into the VxWorks image you build and blow down to the device. There’s probably no BIOS or UEFI or anything like that either - your image and the Board Support Package (BSP) will need to do everything to initialise the system and all it’s devices. You may get lucky and this device is supported in some form out of the box, or it may be something you need to write. VxWorks just provides a simplish kernel, standard libraries and an ok toolset to monitor and debug your targets.

VxWorks probably wasn’t an option though when the 737NG was being developed, and writing simple real-time schedulers is actually pretty straightforward. Doing that, with no OS, on 68000’s and Z80’s was part of my Uni degree course. For safety critical stuff, keeping things as simple as possible is typically the rule - more predictable and analysable.
 
RickNRoll
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 04, 2019 12:14 pm

RickNRoll wrote:
This isn't good. Boeing knew about MCAS risk before the crashes.

NEW YORK: 

Even before the Lion Air and Ethiopian Airlines crashes claimed 346 lives, Boeing flight tests had revealed problems similar to those encountered by pilots on the ill-fated 737 MAX flights.

Company officials learned that its MCAS anti-stall system -- which is at the center of both accidents -- activated within minutes of takeoff, repeatedly pushing the nose of the aircraft down even when the plane was operating in normal conditions at lower speed.

This discovery, recounted to news agency AFP by two former Boeing engineers who spoke on the condition of anonymity, suggested that mastering the MCAS was important for safely flying the MAX.

The MCAS should have been closely vetted by regulators, and procedures for operating the system should have been included in plane manuals and highlighted during pilot training.

But none of that happened.



Story to be confirmed but devastating if true.
https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/behind- ... re-2080007


AFP is the source for this story so it sounds legitimate. Boeing knew that MCAS was deadly before any crashes occurred. This wasn't a matter of failing to explore all the failure modes or similar mistakes. This was a cover up.
 
rjmf22
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 04, 2019 12:39 pm

Sorry i'm a little out of the loop everyone, but what's the latest news with the MAX?
United Airlines
 
bennett123
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 04, 2019 12:52 pm

Assuming that the story is true or substantially so, what criminal charges are likely to follow and who would be in the firing line?.
 
oschkosch
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 04, 2019 1:09 pm

rjmf22 wrote:
Sorry i'm a little out of the loop everyone, but what's the latest news with the MAX?
latest news is one post above yours. Boeing knew of the danger, hid MCAS from all pilots and it looks like they thus willingly accepted the disaster in which they now are.

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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 04, 2019 1:14 pm

Thorkel wrote:
I personally doubt there is one.


Even if your system is fully "handknit"
you write a framework / machine and then create application code on top.

structure is everything.
Murphy is an optimist
 
Eyad89
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 04, 2019 1:18 pm

RickNRoll wrote:
This isn't good. Boeing knew about MCAS risk before the crashes.

NEW YORK: 

Even before the Lion Air and Ethiopian Airlines crashes claimed 346 lives, Boeing flight tests had revealed problems similar to those encountered by pilots on the ill-fated 737 MAX flights.

Company officials learned that its MCAS anti-stall system -- which is at the center of both accidents -- activated within minutes of takeoff, repeatedly pushing the nose of the aircraft down even when the plane was operating in normal conditions at lower speed.

This discovery, recounted to news agency AFP by two former Boeing engineers who spoke on the condition of anonymity, suggested that mastering the MCAS was important for safely flying the MAX.

The MCAS should have been closely vetted by regulators, and procedures for operating the system should have been included in plane manuals and highlighted during pilot training.

But none of that happened.



Story to be confirmed but devastating if true.
https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/behind- ... re-2080007



Yeah, Boeing is getting sued big time.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 04, 2019 1:30 pm

aryonoco wrote:
The last time I touched VxWorks was also over a decade ago. The POSIX compatibility APIs were still a joke, in fact it made the old Windows NT 4.0 POSIX layer look decent by comparison. Even simple things like pthreads were missing.

That made me chuckle a little bit. All the flavors of Unix, including Linux, started out with no threads. Getting threads right was no simple thing. It took the Linux community two or three different tries to get it right ( ref: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Native_PO ... ad_Library ). There's all kinds of design choices and pitfalls. If you think getting mutithreaded code to work is difficult as an end user, just think of the people who got to graft threads on to operating systems that were written without any notion of multithread/multicore support and with very little prior art to fall back on.

The POSIX spec itself is something of a sham. It was written in large part to allow vendors of non-Unix proprietary operating systems (think DEC VMS, IBM MVS, etc) to say they support this new Unix thing, yet it never let one just port Unix programs since it missed so many APIs that Unix programs rely on, and the semantics were different too. The marketing side of those large firms pushed it heavily to the point it was made part of many government RFPs. I feel sorry for the programmers who were told they needed to make their Unix software run on VMS, MVS or VxWorks using POSIX.

aryonoco wrote:
Programming in QNX is MUCH nicer, in fact modern QNX comes with the Qt toolkit which IMO is the best C++ toolkit out there. QNX is very popular in the automotive industry, I have no idea about its suitability and use in the aviation industry.

Very interesting. QNX has a lot of industry backing.

aryonoco wrote:
MrBretz wrote:
Thorkel, thanks for the VxWorks overview. What’s your guess on an OS for the computers aboard the MAX?

All of the relevant OSes that I know of that existed at that time such as pSOS or DNIX ran on the Motorola 68000 (or its derivates). I don't know of any RTOS that existed in the early to mid 80s and ran on the 80286, so I'm going to assume it's something in-house/custom made.

That's my guess too.

If you go to the 'Search this topic...' box at the top of every page of this thread and search for SDP you see our discussion of a month ago.

My guess is the computer itself is 70s tech since it uses 29xx bit slice processors to construct a 16 bit microprocessor, rather than a single die 32 bit microprocessor like 68000 of the 80s.

And in that time frame, while OSes were not unheard of (Unix itself first ran on PDP-11s which were similar tech) they weren't the norm for such small systems.

Yet real time executives were often used in flight control environments, the Apollo Guidance Computer of the 60s is a notable example.

As I wrote earlier, high level languages also weren't the norm in that era, especially for the OS, due to lack of resources.

But I've found no definitive reference to tell us more, other than the ones you find by searching this thread.
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 04, 2019 1:46 pm

RickNRoll wrote:
This isn't good. Boeing knew about MCAS risk before the crashes.

Allegedly, right?

FAA allegedly too, according to the story:

FAA representatives were present during a test flight when an MCAS problem occurred, according to a regulatory source, but approved the MAX without independently studying or testing the flight system.


RickNRoll wrote:
Story to be confirmed but devastating if true.
https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/behind- ... re-2080007

One thing I've written here months ago is if anything like a cover up is found, then Boeing is in huge trouble.

It would change the conversation from a technical one to a moral one.

This would be the kind of thing the FBI/DoJ would be looking for in its probe.

Hopefully we get more clarity on the issue soon.
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RickNRoll
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 04, 2019 1:55 pm

Revelation wrote:
RickNRoll wrote:
This isn't good. Boeing knew about MCAS risk before the crashes.

Allegedly, right?

FAA allegedly too, according to the story:

FAA representatives were present during a test flight when an MCAS problem occurred, according to a regulatory source, but approved the MAX without independently studying or testing the flight system.


RickNRoll wrote:
Story to be confirmed but devastating if true.
https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/behind- ... re-2080007

One thing I've written here months ago is if anything like a cover up is found, then Boeing is in huge trouble.

It would change the conversation from a technical one to a moral one.

This would be the kind of thing the FBI/DoJ would be looking for in its probe.

Hopefully we get more clarity on the issue soon.


Yes. I agree. Alleged at this time.
 
art
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 04, 2019 2:06 pm

[quote="Revelation]One thing I've written here months ago is if anything like a cover up is found, then Boeing is in huge trouble.

It would change the conversation from a technical one to a moral one.[/quote]

I think such a change in conversation would place Boeing management in a domain largely unknown to them. Allegedly.
 
SelseyBill
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 04, 2019 2:23 pm

MSPNWA wrote:
SelseyBill wrote:
How many times have we heard that before in corporate history........ The 737 is Boeings' cash cow. Boeing are still swallowing 787 debt and deferments, the 777 is at the brink of a new program with its largest customer re-assessing their order-book, and the 797 looks aways off at the moment.

I have friends and colleagues who work for Boeing, so I want them to succeed, but this situation is getting very serious.

You cannot defy the financial laws of gravity forever.......


You're missing the 787 also being a cash cow.


.....like the man said, you can only defy the financial laws of gravity for so long.......
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 04, 2019 2:40 pm

SelseyBill wrote:
MSPNWA wrote:
SelseyBill wrote:
How many times have we heard that before in corporate history........ The 737 is Boeings' cash cow. Boeing are still swallowing 787 debt and deferments, the 777 is at the brink of a new program with its largest customer re-assessing their order-book, and the 797 looks aways off at the moment.

I have friends and colleagues who work for Boeing, so I want them to succeed, but this situation is getting very serious.

You cannot defy the financial laws of gravity forever.......


You're missing the 787 also being a cash cow.


.....like the man said, you can only defy the financial laws of gravity for so long.......

Gravity is everywhere, even in the vast wastelands of empty space, its force is relative to the mass of the bodies involved.

Boeing has a lot of mass to burn through.

The airline bankruptcy analogy is bankrupt.

Airlines have little actual property. Most of them lease most of their equipment. They offer a service to the public. Once they get into trouble others swoop in and offer the same service. While things like Air Berlin and Jet Airways hurt the people involved, to the rest of the world it's a short hiccup and then time to book on Lufthansa or SpiceJet instead.

Boeing has long term assets like defense programs, space programs, and airline programs that can be shown to generate lots of future income. On top of that they have the capital equipment to make those things and the intellectual property behind all those things. Making a transition from one of these products to one of their competitor's products is prohibitively expensive to its customers. F15 or F18 customers can't call up Lockheed and switch to F22 or F35 without a massive unplanned expense. Same thing is true for airline and space customers. The customers need the product to survive as much as the company does.

Boeing ain't going bankrupt, just like Dieselgate did not bankrupt the VW Group.
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YYZatcboy
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 04, 2019 2:50 pm

RickNRoll wrote:
RickNRoll wrote:
This isn't good. Boeing knew about MCAS risk before the crashes.

NEW YORK: 

Even before the Lion Air and Ethiopian Airlines crashes claimed 346 lives, Boeing flight tests had revealed problems similar to those encountered by pilots on the ill-fated 737 MAX flights.

Company officials learned that its MCAS anti-stall system -- which is at the center of both accidents -- activated within minutes of takeoff, repeatedly pushing the nose of the aircraft down even when the plane was operating in normal conditions at lower speed.

This discovery, recounted to news agency AFP by two former Boeing engineers who spoke on the condition of anonymity, suggested that mastering the MCAS was important for safely flying the MAX.

The MCAS should have been closely vetted by regulators, and procedures for operating the system should have been included in plane manuals and highlighted during pilot training.

But none of that happened.



Story to be confirmed but devastating if true.
https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/behind- ... re-2080007


AFP is the source for this story so it sounds legitimate. Boeing knew that MCAS was deadly before any crashes occurred. This wasn't a matter of failing to explore all the failure modes or similar mistakes. This was a cover up.


I can't find this story on the AFP website, and all of the websites I can find searching the first paragraph I've never heard of. If anyone can find a link to the actual wire story or a reputable news site publishing it as well I'd love to see a link.
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 04, 2019 3:43 pm

ArgentoSystems wrote:
MSPNWA wrote:

You're missing the 787 also being a cash cow. And then the rest of Boeing's portfolio is bringing in revenue. They could survive a MAX grounding for a long time. The financials don't support a serious situation.

Sure, Boeing can survive without 737 for a long time, or even forever. BCA, however, not so much. Too much dead weight and not enough income.


Looking at Boeing Commercial Aircraft as a distinctly separate business is incorrect. Given the structure in todays multinational corporations Boeing has the ability to move resources around. Airbus is now similar due to the dominance of the Airbus SAS division within Airbus Group SE, these parent and subsidiary companies were merged in January 2017, keeping the name of the parent company. The company was given its present name in April 2017. Both have numerous ways to absorb costs other than being limited to one division.
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 04, 2019 3:58 pm

YYZatcboy wrote:
I can't find this story on the AFP website, and all of the websites I can find searching the first paragraph I've never heard of. If anyone can find a link to the actual wire story or a reputable news site publishing it as well I'd love to see a link.

Interesting.

art wrote:
Revelation wrote:
One thing I've written here months ago is if anything like a cover up is found, then Boeing is in huge trouble.

It would change the conversation from a technical one to a moral one.

I think such a change in conversation would place Boeing management in a domain largely unknown to them. Allegedly.

You've asked about my perception of US corporations before.

IMO there's a huge difference between technical lapses said to be due to excessive management pressure and excessive deregulation, and deliberately ignoring known serious problems at both manufacturer and regulator, as this (fake news?) story alleges.

It's the difference between a covert act / error of omission versus a overt act / error of commission.

If we do get proof of the later, the retribution will be swift and severe, ala Dieselgate.
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frmrCapCadet
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 04, 2019 4:15 pm

Seattle Times, local TV, and Google news come up with no such stories or links. There is a South Carolina newspaper report of shoddy construction of 787s at Charleston.

https://www.postandcourier.com/business ... d055e.html
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 04, 2019 5:03 pm

Revelation wrote:
Boeing has long term assets like defense programs, space programs, and airline programs that can be shown to generate lots of future income.

If the current situation is due to faulty management, how can programs be an asset, one would think that there would be penalties included even if they are government contracts, example the tanker program, the losses Boeing has sustained, Air Force holding payments, cancellation is possible however, unlikely.
Rest of your post I have no issue with, other than to say that even with the changes in Chpt.11 laws on eligibility, management still has some cards they can play to get the company in..
 
asdf
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 04, 2019 5:08 pm

Agrajag wrote:
Talking hypothetically, if the Max is never allowed to be a commercial passenger aircraft again, could some of the grounded frames be adapted to a P-8 type of aircraft that operates under a special certificate? Or cargo?


i guess they would make a military aircraft from all that frames

drone motherships
or troop transporters or such

so trump can „safe“ boeing
 
WIederling
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 04, 2019 5:17 pm

Revelation wrote:
All the flavors of Unix, including Linux, started out with no threads. Getting threads right was no simple thing. It took the Linux community two or three different tries to get it right ( ref: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Native_PO ... ad_Library ). There's all kinds of design choices and pitfalls.


Creating/forking processes in Linux was always cheap. Much cheaper than with other UNIXoids.
Thus the Linux crowd didn't really miss those pthreads.

Avoiding those pitfalls.
Murphy is an optimist
 
oOfredOo
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Aug 04, 2019 5:27 pm

Thorkel wrote:
MrBretz wrote:
Thorkel, thanks for the VxWorks overview. What’s your guess on an OS for the computers aboard the MAX?


I personally doubt there is one.



I concur. This website lists the Boeing 737 software as written in Ada. https://www2.seas.gwu.edu/~mfeldman/ada ... mmary.html
If it's correct, at least we know the programming language.

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