XRAYretired
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Tue Aug 13, 2019 6:15 pm

PixelFlight wrote:
NDiesel wrote:
Norwegian «discontinues all Trans-Atlantic routes with the 737MAX» according to Norwegian newspaper VG.

Impending cancellation of their order?

Last Saturday I spotted airstairs attached to two Norwegian's 737-8/9 MAX grounded at the Helsinki Airport, wondering what there have to do with them...
Image

Forbes article has a few pointers to what may be going on and perhaps of interest to those posters interested in continuing maintenance of grounded aircraft.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeremyboga ... d50151e619

Ray
 
asdf
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Tue Aug 13, 2019 6:28 pm

DenverTed wrote:
I wonder if the 737 is the only recently produced aircraft with this, or if the CRJ or some other older designs run on one computer?


it is not about "on one computer"

its about software
its about error correcting
its about hardware

shure, three independent computers can help a lot and make the programmers life easier

but this is not a absolute condition
 
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PW100
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Tue Aug 13, 2019 6:30 pm

Revelation wrote:
[Meanwhile, Boeing's CEO says:
In June, FAA pilots found a new potential issue with the 737 Max aircraft involved in both fatal crashes during a simulated flight, according to two sources familiar with the matter. The new flaw was traced to how data was processed by the flight computer and not related to reported problems with the anti-stall system, MCAS, sources told ABC News. They said it was connected to a broader anti-stall system called "speed trim."

Last week, Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg said the company had worked its way through the "technical details" and are "in the final stages of repairing that software. . . We'll go through certification with the FAA," Muilenburg said. "We plan to submit that certification package in September and currently anticipate that we will return the airplane to service early in the fourth quarter."

Ref: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/faa-adm ... d=64932657

I'm pretty sure Boeing is posting the most optimistic timeline possible, but I would remind people that FAA has been in the loop for all the MAX testing (they were part of the testing that found the 'cosmic ray' issue) and it's hard to project the remaining steps will take nine more months of review, unless some other significant issue crops up.


Thanks for that.
Did we get any update on the "EASA outstanding issue list'? It seems quite quiet on that.
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PW100
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Tue Aug 13, 2019 6:35 pm

Vladex wrote:
Safety is only a general term in the certification system but only as far as it promotes economic activity.
???? WTF?

Vladex wrote:
The certification only certifies general characteristics of an airplane, it doesn`t say anything about the major integration of the main parts such as fuselage, wings, engines and landing gear. Those designs again are first and foremost commercially driven
Again WTF ?????

I cincerely wonder if you are in the industry, as these remarks could not possibly be any further from what certificfation is all about.
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art
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Tue Aug 13, 2019 7:59 pm

I have been wondering how much the grounding is costing holiday companies. This bit from Bloomberg gives an idea of how TUI AG (a large European holiday company} has been affected:

The global idling of the Max following two fatal crashes meant TUI had to lease in less-efficient jets from third parties, according to a statement Tuesday, cutting earnings by 144 million euros ($161 million) in the fiscal third quarter and causing profit to slump 46% when it would otherwise have gained.

TUI reiterated that the grounding will cost it about 300 million euros for the full year, saying it will step up efficiency measures at its tour operator arm to help cope, and reiterating its earnings forecast. Hanover, Germany-based TUI has a fleet of 15 Max aircraft and was due take several more this year.


Source: https://www.hl.co.uk/news/2019/8/13/tui ... ings-slump
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Tue Aug 13, 2019 8:04 pm

FluidFlow wrote:

The new head of the FAA has a lot of pressure not only because of Boeing wanting the aircraft back into service but because he will be the face of disaster or success of the "new" Max. If he gives a green light and 1-24 months down the line a MAX crashes due to bad design approved by the FAA he is done and possibly branded as the worst head of the FAA. His career in aviation is over. If he approves and the 737 Max is the safest aircraft ever to be flown, as Boeing hopes and states, he will be linked to this re-certification and that the FAA did everything right under his guidance. So he needs to get this right even if it takes 12 months from now instead of 3, because it is his head that will be cut off if it is not done right.


99% of the flying public (make that the public) can’t name or couldn’t care who the head of the FAA is. This is his “sunset cruise” so he’ll probably be off to retirement whenever he leaves this job. Nobody will remember whether he did a good job or a poor job. What he has to work with he inherited and will take years to modify. If there is another 737MAX crash due to poor design the only thing he could have done to prevent that would have been to do a complete recertification.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Tue Aug 13, 2019 8:27 pm

PixelFlight wrote:

I don't know if "B777LRF" was referring to type certificate or CoA. He say "Certificate of Airworthiness" but in a way that is general to all 737 MAX, like the type certificate do.
As you point out, only experimental airworthiness certificates can be issued, so my understanding is that each of the 737-8/9 in the actual Boeing stock don't actually hold CoA but have a type certificate.


I believe all the present Boeing MAX flights are being flown under a production certificate except for the one or two in experimental. If any of the airplanes in airline colors flying locally have their foreign/US registrations taped over that would indicate its an experimental ticket.

Other comments:

Before an airplane can be delivered or have a customer flight it must be “bought FAA” by a designated Boeing pilot (the way it’s been for over 50 years). To be “bought FAA” it must be in the certified delivery configuration. None of the present Max’s meet this requirement.
 
planecane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Aug 14, 2019 3:33 am

B777LRF wrote:
asdf wrote:
This may be in regard to a delay of delivery
But they deliver!


asdf wrote:
InsideMan wrote:
which 737 MAX has been delivered since the grounding? ....


we dont know, do we?.


asdf wrote:
maybe they
- delivered and the planes now are owned by the airlines but are parked @ BA
- informed that the planes are ready for picking up, but the airlines didnt pick them up

there are a lot of situations think able


To put it in the most simple terms:

* The 737 Max does not currently hold a Certificate of Airworthiness
* Having a valid CoA is a prerequisite for acceptance of an aircraft by the customer

Which means, that Boeing are indeed not delivering any 737 Max at the moment, and haven't for quite some time now, thus not collecting delivery payments either. The latter is reflected in their latest financial report which, despite a questionable amount set aside for the losses associated with the grounding, are not pretty at all.

On top of this, you have customers who've ordered hundreds of the things, and arranged themselves to accommodate deliveries thereof, now looking around for a) solutions and b) compensation. The former is an ever growing headache, but the latter is all but assured due to Boeing's monumental failures bringing the Max v1 to market. It's really only a question of how much the customers can wring out of B; the repercussions may be very financially challenging indeed.

I don't believe that is technically correct. I believe that it still has a CoA, it is just restricted from operating passenger flights right now. At least that's what I remember from when it was grounded.
 
sgrow787
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Aug 14, 2019 4:10 am

If Boeing and the FAA have convinced themselves that a two sensor design was the right way to go from the beginning, does that mean the original certification is invalid? Does it also mean that the new two sensor design can now be classified as meeting safety critical level of hazardous?

Also, why the G sensor + AOA in the initial design, if they initially categorized the safety level as major?
 
sgrow787
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Aug 14, 2019 5:30 am

Amiga500 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Yet the same media reports describing the design/architecture changes references Boeing sources saying they expect to submit their changes in September and hope for approval in October.


Which means either the scope of the changes reported is wrong, the reported timeline is wrong or the person giving the timeline information doesn't have a clue.


Revelation wrote:
Sure, it could be another overly optimistic date from Boeing, but the thing is, none of us know when the work on the design/architecture change started.


Imagine the furore there will be if it comes out that Boeing knew that not only was MCAS problematic, but the underlying FCS was also deficient and were working on solutions while (i) hiding MCAS and (ii) insisting the aircraft was safe!


Revelation wrote:
Some content posted around the time the "microprocessor issue" was first raised suggested Boeing was working on this kind of change for a while now.
Maybe that work was being planned for a later software drop, and when the "microprocessor issue" arose, they realized their best course of action was to accelerate the work.


No way would they undertake this kind of work for a regular update. Its far too large and carries significant risk in of itself.


This! It may very well have been Boeing's Plan B that started very early, possibly at the time they discovered the low-speed instability issue - assuming here the possibility that the single-sensor design wasn't a mere engineering misjudgment, but rather an intentional design decision based on (again assuming) a data-flow issue when adding offside sensor (AOA) data reading to the existing legacy FCC code. It's possible the data-flow issue didn't exist for the initial G + AOA design because both sensor data can be read from onside sources.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Aug 14, 2019 6:50 am

FluidFlow wrote:
freakyrat wrote:
planecane wrote:
Where do you get that form that report? The FAA has been saying the same thing for months.


The FAA want's to be absolutely sure that the aircrsft is safe. However the new FAA Administrator comes from Delta who doesn't operate the MAX so the delay in recertification while necessary actually benefits airlines that do not operate the MAX.



The new head of the FAA has a lot of pressure not only because of Boeing wanting the aircraft back into service but because he will be the face of disaster or success of the "new" Max. If he gives a green light and 1-24 months down the line a MAX crashes due to bad design approved by the FAA he is done and possibly branded as the worst head of the FAA. His career in aviation is over. If he approves and the 737 Max is the safest aircraft ever to be flown, as Boeing hopes and states, he will be linked to this re-certification and that the FAA did everything right under his guidance. So he needs to get this right even if it takes 12 months from now instead of 3, because it is his head that will be cut off if it is not done right.


The Max will crash again at some point. It's statistically inevitable. But I seriously doubt it will be due to design error. Not after being under the microscope for so long. But it is being sold to airlines in countries who do not have any sort of quality training standards and where corruption runs rampant. We all heard about the hundreds of pilots in third world countries with falsified certificates and degrees. Ab initio training is not comparable to the rigorous standards found in the US, Canada, etc. I was shocked to see an Easy Jet documentary (clip below) with an FO who was part of on the job training. The captain took the controls away about 10 ft above the ground on landing. That's a huge no no in the US. You go around. You don't try to salvage a bad approach. That captain is dangerous.

https://youtu.be/sd4hSipKPh0
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Aug 14, 2019 6:55 am

B777LRF wrote:
On top of this, you have customers who've ordered hundreds of the things, and arranged themselves to accommodate deliveries thereof, now looking around for a) solutions and b) compensation. The former is an ever growing headache, but the latter is all but assured due to Boeing's monumental failures bringing the Max v1 to market. It's really only a question of how much the customers can wring out of B; the repercussions may be very financially challenging indeed.

Another, kind of funny aspect:
As a result of the airlines not getting new MAXs, Boeing is getting them. Therefore, Boeing meanwhile has become by far the largest MAX "operator" out there. They meanwhile own a much larger MAX fleet than anybody else. There is no airline, which owns just half as many of the new generation narrowbodies (A220, A320NEO, MAX).
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Aug 14, 2019 9:08 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
The Max will crash again at some point. It's statistically inevitable. But I seriously doubt it will be due to design error. Not after being under the microscope for so long. But it is being sold to airlines in countries who do not have any sort of quality training standards and where corruption runs rampant. We all heard about the hundreds of pilots in third world countries with falsified certificates and degrees. Ab initio training is not comparable to the rigorous standards found in the US, Canada, etc. I was shocked to see an Easy Jet documentary (clip below) with an FO who was part of on the job training. The captain took the controls away about 10 ft above the ground on landing. That's a huge no no in the US. You go around. You don't try to salvage a bad approach. That captain is dangerous.

https://youtu.be/sd4hSipKPh0


Oh really? How do you explain this?

Video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bwYmMG61VDk

http://avherald.com/h?article=465c1158

On Jul 23rd 2015 the NTSB released their final report concluding the probable cause of the accident was:

The captain's attempt to recover from an unstabilized approach by transferring airplane control at low altitude instead of performing a go-around. Contributing to the accident was the captain's failure to comply with standard operating procedures.


Which country did this event happen? Remind me again?
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TTailedTiger
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Aug 14, 2019 9:18 am

bgm wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
The Max will crash again at some point. It's statistically inevitable. But I seriously doubt it will be due to design error. Not after being under the microscope for so long. But it is being sold to airlines in countries who do not have any sort of quality training standards and where corruption runs rampant. We all heard about the hundreds of pilots in third world countries with falsified certificates and degrees. Ab initio training is not comparable to the rigorous standards found in the US, Canada, etc. I was shocked to see an Easy Jet documentary (clip below) with an FO who was part of on the job training. The captain took the controls away about 10 ft above the ground on landing. That's a huge no no in the US. You go around. You don't try to salvage a bad approach. That captain is dangerous.

https://youtu.be/sd4hSipKPh0


Oh really? How do you explain this?

Video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bwYmMG61VDk

http://avherald.com/h?article=465c1158

On Jul 23rd 2015 the NTSB released their final report concluding the probable cause of the accident was:

The captain's attempt to recover from an unstabilized approach by transferring airplane control at low altitude instead of performing a go-around. Contributing to the accident was the captain's failure to comply with standard operating procedures.


Which country did this event happen? Remind me again?


I am well aware of that accident. That captain was also fired. She violated mutliple company policies and acted in an unprofessional manner that is not tolerated. You do not take control from another pilot on landing. If it's an unstable approach then the pilot monitoring has the responsibility to call for a go around. And in the US either crew member can call for it and it must be done.

I'm not sure what sort of point you are trying to make. All you did was prove my point that what the Easy Jet captain did was very dangerous.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Aug 14, 2019 9:46 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
I'm not sure what sort of point you are trying to make.


Really? :scratchchin:
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planecane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Aug 14, 2019 10:18 am

sgrow787 wrote:
If Boeing and the FAA have convinced themselves that a two sensor design was the right way to go from the beginning, does that mean the original certification is invalid? Does it also mean that the new two sensor design can now be classified as meeting safety critical level of hazardous?

Also, why the G sensor + AOA in the initial design, if they initially categorized the safety level as major?

It doesn't mean the original certification was invalid. It's the same as any other defect found after entry into service. The FAA sets the requirement of what needs to be modified and in what timeframe. In the case of MCAS, it was deemed to be serious enough that the model should be grounded until the issue is fixed. Was the 787 certification invalid because of the battery fire issue that led to a grounding?

The new design is probably even less serious than "hazardous." It isn't just a change to a two sensor design. It is also adding authority limits based on airspeed AND disengaging MCAS if the pilot trims nose up while MCAS is trimming nose down. Essentially with the new design a sensor failure, even both sensors failing won't lead to a runaway stabilizer or make it physically difficult to maintain level flight.

The G sensor + AoA wasn't for redundancy, it was to sense the conditions for activation. It still wasn't a redundant design. If the aircraft was at high AoA in low speed (originally not requiring MCAS) and the G sensor failed, MCAS would have activated as well as other scenarios.
 
Aviation737
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Aug 14, 2019 12:13 pm

I would like to ask why didn't the solution proposed by Boeing after the Lion Air crash work?
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Aug 14, 2019 12:41 pm

Aviation737 wrote:
I would like to ask why didn't the solution proposed by Boeing after the Lion Air crash work?

There are rumors that Boeing was working on MCAS changes after Lion crash. They hoped to complete the work before the next crash, and that manual trim procedure would avert the crash in case of another MCAS runaway. Both assumptions proved wrong...
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Aug 14, 2019 1:03 pm

XRAYretired wrote:
Forbes article has a few pointers to what may be going on and perhaps of interest to those posters interested in continuing maintenance of grounded aircraft.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeremyboga ... d50151e619
:checkmark:
Thanks, this was a good read full of interesting information. :thumbsup:
 
Vladex
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Aug 14, 2019 1:52 pm

art wrote:
I have been wondering how much the grounding is costing holiday companies. This bit from Bloomberg gives an idea of how TUI AG (a large European holiday company} has been affected:

The global idling of the Max following two fatal crashes meant TUI had to lease in less-efficient jets from third parties, according to a statement Tuesday, cutting earnings by 144 million euros ($161 million) in the fiscal third quarter and causing profit to slump 46% when it would otherwise have gained.

TUI reiterated that the grounding will cost it about 300 million euros for the full year, saying it will step up efficiency measures at its tour operator arm to help cope, and reiterating its earnings forecast. Hanover, Germany-based TUI has a fleet of 15 Max aircraft and was due take several more this year.


Source: https://www.hl.co.uk/news/2019/8/13/tui ... ings-slump


They would lose much more if they were operating 737 MAX with empty planes, social media and maybe another crash so it could definitely be worse.
 
planecane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Aug 14, 2019 2:25 pm

kalvado wrote:
Aviation737 wrote:
I would like to ask why didn't the solution proposed by Boeing after the Lion Air crash work?

There are rumors that Boeing was working on MCAS changes after Lion crash. They hoped to complete the work before the next crash, and that manual trim procedure would avert the crash in case of another MCAS runaway. Both assumptions proved wrong...

I don't think they are rumors. I think they were solid reports. At least as "official" as the other reports about the microprocessor issue.

I also don't think they "hoped" to finish before the "next crash." They believed that the updated description and procedures in the EAD would prevent a crash. Why they didn't in the ET crash will be known after the final report on the crash. For opinions about it look at the old threads and the beginning of this one. I don't want to start arguments again.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Aug 14, 2019 2:40 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:
freakyrat wrote:

The FAA want's to be absolutely sure that the aircrsft is safe. However the new FAA Administrator comes from Delta who doesn't operate the MAX so the delay in recertification while necessary actually benefits airlines that do not operate the MAX.



The new head of the FAA has a lot of pressure not only because of Boeing wanting the aircraft back into service but because he will be the face of disaster or success of the "new" Max. If he gives a green light and 1-24 months down the line a MAX crashes due to bad design approved by the FAA he is done and possibly branded as the worst head of the FAA. His career in aviation is over. If he approves and the 737 Max is the safest aircraft ever to be flown, as Boeing hopes and states, he will be linked to this re-certification and that the FAA did everything right under his guidance. So he needs to get this right even if it takes 12 months from now instead of 3, because it is his head that will be cut off if it is not done right.


The Max will crash again at some point. It's statistically inevitable. But I seriously doubt it will be due to design error. Not after being under the microscope for so long. But it is being sold to airlines in countries who do not have any sort of quality training standards and where corruption runs rampant. We all heard about the hundreds of pilots in third world countries with falsified certificates and degrees. Ab initio training is not comparable to the rigorous standards found in the US, Canada, etc. I was shocked to see an Easy Jet documentary (clip below) with an FO who was part of on the job training. The captain took the controls away about 10 ft above the ground on landing. That's a huge no no in the US. You go around. You don't try to salvage a bad approach. That captain is dangerous.

https://youtu.be/sd4hSipKPh0


Agreed, The plane in the video is an Airbus A320. Just being a small plane pilot and the first time I flew a landing in an FDS A320 Simulator It got a little tricky for me getting my sight picture right and being patient plus using a side stick took getting use to. I was much better the second time. They should have went around and tried the second time. The big thing for me and looks like it was for Stuart is just relax. I found if I gently hold the side stick and make small corrections like the Captain told him to do I do fine.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Aug 14, 2019 4:13 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
The Max will crash again at some point. It's statistically inevitable. But I seriously doubt it will be due to design error. Not after being under the microscope for so long. But it is being sold to airlines in countries who do not have any sort of quality training standards and where corruption runs rampant. We all heard about the hundreds of pilots in third world countries with falsified certificates and degrees. Ab initio training is not comparable to the rigorous standards found in the US, Canada, etc. I was shocked to see an Easy Jet documentary (clip below) with an FO who was part of on the job training. The captain took the controls away about 10 ft above the ground on landing. That's a huge no no in the US. You go around. You don't try to salvage a bad approach. That captain is dangerous.

https://youtu.be/sd4hSipKPh0

Since this post seems to be controversial, I would like to point out:

1) If you want to claim that this post is about American Exceptionalism, this post doesn't say the US and Canada are the only places where training standards are rigorous

2) If you want to suggest that Boeing is using poor pilot training as an excuse for the MAX situation, then you need to explain why Airbus's says head of global flight training says similar things in AvWeek: Airbus Takes Aim At Inconsistent Pilot Training Quality without having any recent tragic losses in its history.

A direct quote from the AvWeek article:

Beyond the numbers, a qualitative problem is becoming a concern, according to Jean-Michel Bigarre, head of global flight training at Airbus. “A looming pilot shortage is coupled with variation in the level of training worldwide,” he tells Aviation Week.

National authorities lack uniformity in pilot training regulation. Airbus safety experts also see “strange things in poor countries where air transport is growing very fast—suspiciously quick pilot qualification and fraudulent flight-hour accounting.”
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Aug 14, 2019 4:29 pm

Revelation wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
The Max will crash again at some point. It's statistically inevitable. But I seriously doubt it will be due to design error. Not after being under the microscope for so long. But it is being sold to airlines in countries who do not have any sort of quality training standards and where corruption runs rampant. We all heard about the hundreds of pilots in third world countries with falsified certificates and degrees. Ab initio training is not comparable to the rigorous standards found in the US, Canada, etc. I was shocked to see an Easy Jet documentary (clip below) with an FO who was part of on the job training. The captain took the controls away about 10 ft above the ground on landing. That's a huge no no in the US. You go around. You don't try to salvage a bad approach. That captain is dangerous.

https://youtu.be/sd4hSipKPh0

Since this post seems to be controversial, I would like to point out:

1) If you want to claim that this post is about American Exceptionalism, this post doesn't say the US and Canada are the only places where training standards are rigorous

2) If you want to suggest that Boeing is using poor pilot training as an excuse for the MAX situation, then you need to explain why Airbus's says head of global flight training says similar things in AvWeek: Airbus Takes Aim At Inconsistent Pilot Training Quality without having any recent tragic losses in its history.

A direct quote from the AvWeek article:

Beyond the numbers, a qualitative problem is becoming a concern, according to Jean-Michel Bigarre, head of global flight training at Airbus. “A looming pilot shortage is coupled with variation in the level of training worldwide,” he tells Aviation Week.

National authorities lack uniformity in pilot training regulation. Airbus safety experts also see “strange things in poor countries where air transport is growing very fast—suspiciously quick pilot qualification and fraudulent flight-hour accounting.”

And, once again, we are derailed with pilot training and first world vs first world.

PLEASE, let’s not start playing lawyer. If the original poster wants to defend themselves, fine. We don’t need advocates extending the off-topic debates with semantics.

This thread is supposedly about the 737MAX grounding. And, why is it grounded? Is it because pilots are poorly trained, and we need this break so that all commercial pilots can go through more training? Is the grounding continuing because the training is not complete yet?

Come on, folks. Let’s try and keep this thread on topic.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Aug 14, 2019 4:53 pm

aerolimani wrote:
We don’t need advocates extending the off-topic debates with semantics.

It's not semantics when one member exaggerates another member's statements then uses that as the basis for their replies. It's a dubious debating tactic, and people should be called out when they use it.

aerolimani wrote:
This thread is supposedly about the 737MAX grounding. And, why is it grounded? Is it because pilots are poorly trained, and we need this break so that all commercial pilots can go through more training? Is the grounding continuing because the training is not complete yet?

Boeing says it put more workload on pilots than they could handle. This means there was a disconnect between the level of training Boeing thought the pilots had vs the level they actually had. Airbus also stated the worldwide standard of training is uneven. It is all on topic when we want to discuss the situation that lead to the grounding. If we want to ban that part of the discussion then we will need a lot of posts to be deleted. If we want to only discuss the path to ungrounding, then the thread title should be updated.
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MSPNWA
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Aug 14, 2019 5:25 pm

aerolimani wrote:
And, why is it grounded? Is it because pilots are poorly trained, and we need this break so that all commercial pilots can go through more training?


The plane is grounded in part due to poor pilot training/skill. That factor is completely on topic.

Does it strike at all odd to you that the aviation authorities (and many in this thread) don't seem to have much concern about that factor in the grounding? Why ground an aircraft if you only care about part of the reason why? That's a massive failure of our aviation regulators.
 
WIederling
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Aug 14, 2019 5:35 pm

MSPNWA wrote:
aerolimani wrote:
And, why is it grounded? Is it because pilots are poorly trained, and we need this break so that all commercial pilots can go through more training?


The plane is grounded in part due to poor pilot training/skill. That factor is completely on topic.

Decidedly NOT grounded on training issues.
training issues would ground pilots, wouldn't it.

Boeing has only ever announced changes to the hardware ( and software working on that hardware).
No move has been made by Boeing to lay out plans for a proper training curriculum ( as changed reference for schools, airlines ).

Another one of these icky smear campaigners ?
and guess what: MAX are grounded in the domain of the "God Pilots" too.
Murphy is an optimist
 
sgrow787
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Aug 14, 2019 5:47 pm

planecane wrote:
They believed that the updated description and procedures in the EAD would prevent a crash. Why they didn't in the ET crash will be known after the final report on the crash. For opinions about it look at the old threads and the beginning of this one. I don't want to start arguments again.


But you nor anyone else knows what Boeing believes. Certainly there's been enough information obtained after the two crashes, from ex-Boeing employees, insiders, and industry professionals, to suggest something nefarious was/is going on within Boeing and the Max certification.

The 787 battery issue is not in the ballpark of what we're seeing with the Max design issues and certification decisions and process. That was a supplier issue.

I won't comment on whether you like to create arguments.
 
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PixelFlight
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Aug 14, 2019 5:51 pm

Revelation wrote:
Boeing says it put more workload on pilots than they could handle. This means there was a disconnect between the level of training Boeing thought the pilots had vs the level they actually had. Airbus also stated the worldwide standard of training is uneven. It is all on topic when we want to discuss the situation that lead to the grounding. If we want to ban that part of the discussion then we will need a lot of posts to be deleted. If we want to only discuss the path to ungrounding, then the thread title should be updated.

The Boeing and Airbus statements where not on the same context.
Boeing issued the AD 2018-23-51, that can be interpreted controversially as a pilot training issue, specifically for the 737-8/9 MAX.
Airbus was speaking about a program to improve general training worldwide, regardless of the aircraft type.

We all perfectly know that any correlation with a schematic like: pilot country -> training level -> 737-8/9 MAX crash -> 737-8/9 MAX grounding, is highly controversial and equally useless since by now we know that many critically important safety assessments was missed by Boeing, as proved by the multiples safety certification agencies issues list and the long work Boeing need to deliverer a properly certifiable solution. Without that Boeing fixes, it was only a matter of time before a 737-8/9 MAX would have crashed in a country where the alleged controversial and useless correlation will be even more controversial and useless.
 
XRAYretired
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Aug 14, 2019 6:38 pm

planecane wrote:
kalvado wrote:
Aviation737 wrote:
I would like to ask why didn't the solution proposed by Boeing after the Lion Air crash work?

There are rumors that Boeing was working on MCAS changes after Lion crash. They hoped to complete the work before the next crash, and that manual trim procedure would avert the crash in case of another MCAS runaway. Both assumptions proved wrong...

I don't think they are rumors. I think they were solid reports. At least as "official" as the other reports about the microprocessor issue.

I also don't think they "hoped" to finish before the "next crash." They believed that the updated description and procedures in the EAD would prevent a crash. Why they didn't in the ET crash will be known after the final report on the crash. For opinions about it look at the old threads and the beginning of this one. I don't want to start arguments again.

From the credible reports, post Lion Air, Boeing/FAA new the system was 'dangerous', was at 'high risk' of recurrence of the problem and must be addressed. The FAA cold calculation indicated that they had ~10 months before the collateral damage numbers became unacceptable (another catastrophic event) how they included entirely random bird strike in this calculation is any ones guess. Boeing started a program that would get the fix done in 4/5 months. EAD was a stopgap and it was a gamble the fix would be in before another event. They were wrong.

Not much difference between hoped and gambled.

Ray
 
planecane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Aug 14, 2019 6:41 pm

sgrow787 wrote:
planecane wrote:
They believed that the updated description and procedures in the EAD would prevent a crash. Why they didn't in the ET crash will be known after the final report on the crash. For opinions about it look at the old threads and the beginning of this one. I don't want to start arguments again.


But you nor anyone else knows what Boeing believes. Certainly there's been enough information obtained after the two crashes, from ex-Boeing employees, insiders, and industry professionals, to suggest something nefarious was/is going on within Boeing and the Max certification.

The 787 battery issue is not in the ballpark of what we're seeing with the Max design issues and certification decisions and process. That was a supplier issue.

I won't comment on whether you like to create arguments.


Pot calling the kettle black? It doesn't matter what I post, you (and others) will try and figure out a way to argue over it.

My response had NOTHING TO DO WITH CERTIFICATION. It had to do with responding to the suggestion that they "hoped" they could get the fix done "before the next crash." Do you really believe this was the case and that they didn't think the procedures and documentation updated by the EAD would prevent "the next crash" while they finished the updates to MCAS that they started after Lion Air?

The battery issue on the 787 was certainly a miss during certification. I would argue that a high capacity lithium ion battery catching fire in flight is far more dangerous than MCAS causing a runaway stabilizer. Had a 787 battery caused an uncontrollable fire at altitude, it could easily have caused an unrecoverable event, meaning no matter what the pilots did there would be no way to save the aircraft. With the information known to date, the MCAS runaways were recoverable. I will hold that educated opinion unless the final reports indicate that the manual electric trim was not able to return to an in-trim condition. As long as it was, it was possible to recover.
 
uta999
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Aug 14, 2019 6:48 pm

Two fatal crashes tell you, you are wrong.
Your computer just got better
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Aug 14, 2019 7:04 pm

uta999 wrote:
Two fatal crashes tell you, you are wrong.

You are answering a different question.

The question being asked is:

planecane wrote:
Do you really believe this was the case and that they didn't think the procedures and documentation updated by the EAD would prevent "the next crash" while they finished the updates to MCAS that they started after Lion Air?

So it's not a question about 'you', it's a question about what Boeing's engineering team was thinking after JT but before ET.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
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journeyperson
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Aug 14, 2019 7:39 pm

[/quote]
Decidedly NOT grounded on training issues.
training issues would ground pilots, wouldn't it.

.[/quote]

So well put. This should be reproduced every time someone says the crashes were the pilots' fault.
 
planecane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Aug 14, 2019 8:51 pm

uta999 wrote:
Two fatal crashes tell you, you are wrong.


Just because they got very lucky with the 787 doesn't mean it wasn't a potentially unrecoverable, catastrophic failure that could have happened.

If your statement is telling me that my opinion that the MCAS failures were recoverable is wrong, The safe and uneventful landing of Lion Air 043 tells me I'm not wrong. Yes, there was a 3rd pilot that recognized what needed to be done. The fact is that when they did what he said to do the failure was recoverable.
 
ArgentoSystems
Posts: 294
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Aug 14, 2019 8:51 pm

Lawsuits are beginning to materialize.
https://www.the-star.co.ke/business/ken ... st-boeing/
 
airnorth
Posts: 341
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Aug 14, 2019 8:58 pm

ArgentoSystems wrote:
Lawsuits are beginning to materialize.
https://www.the-star.co.ke/business/ken ... st-boeing/

Pretty sure the lawsuits started a few month back, looks like in this example they are adding their names to a class action.
 
ArgentoSystems
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Aug 14, 2019 8:59 pm

planecane wrote:
If your statement is telling me that my opinion that the MCAS failures were recoverable is wrong, The safe and uneventful landing of Lion Air 043 tells me I'm not wrong. Yes, there was a 3rd pilot that recognized what needed to be done. The fact is that when they did what he said to do the failure was recoverable.


Jumping from the roof of a 9-storey building is also recoverable, potentially. If 100 people were to jump, there will be a few suffering only (relatively speaking) minor injuries, like broken legs, and who would fully recover. Following your logic we could declare jumping from heights safe, and if some people do not survive the fall then it is their own fault for not following proper jumping technique.
 
kalvado
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Aug 14, 2019 9:00 pm

planecane wrote:
uta999 wrote:
Two fatal crashes tell you, you are wrong.


Just because they got very lucky with the 787 doesn't mean it wasn't a potentially unrecoverable, catastrophic failure that could have happened.

If your statement is telling me that my opinion that the MCAS failures were recoverable is wrong, The safe and uneventful landing of Lion Air 043 tells me I'm not wrong. Yes, there was a 3rd pilot that recognized what needed to be done. The fact is that when they did what he said to do the failure was recoverable.

Almost every catastrophic situation has (until certain point) a narrow path to escape catastrophic outcome. I can think of 3 dual engines shutdowns on a twin where everyone lived to tell the story. In 2 of those aircraft actually flown again; and it was not impossible to avoid frame write-off in the third one. Doesn't make dual engine shutdown classified as a non-catastrophic event.
Problem is that the narrow path is often found after long analysis - but it has to be strictly followed by an operator (e.g. driver, pilot, controller, doctor.. ) within seconds to grasp that happy ending option, and often with no second chance in case of mistake.
 
planecane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Aug 14, 2019 9:35 pm

ArgentoSystems wrote:
planecane wrote:
If your statement is telling me that my opinion that the MCAS failures were recoverable is wrong, The safe and uneventful landing of Lion Air 043 tells me I'm not wrong. Yes, there was a 3rd pilot that recognized what needed to be done. The fact is that when they did what he said to do the failure was recoverable.


Jumping from the roof of a 9-storey building is also recoverable, potentially. If 100 people were to jump, there will be a few suffering only (relatively speaking) minor injuries, like broken legs, and who would fully recover. Following your logic we could declare jumping from heights safe, and if some people do not survive the fall then it is their own fault for not following proper jumping technique.


That analogy is ridiculous. Lion Air 043 recovered easily. On Lion Air 610, the captain was able to keep flying by countering MCAS trim inputs for several minutes until he gave the FO control that stopped doing that for some reason, which I hope we will discover in the final report. Had they known to cut off the electric trim and done so at any point after the captain countered MCAS, they would have recovered and landed safely just like Lion Air 043.

ET302 was countering the MCAS input when they cut off electric trim while still out of trim. Assuming that the electric trim was able to continue to move the stabilizer (which I won't say for certain until the final report), had they waited to cut off the electric trim until they were back in trim it would have been recoverable.

I'm not arguing pilot error or what they SHOULD have done. I'm pointing out what they COULD have done to recover and what was done on at least one flight with an MCAS failure. This is not remotely analogous to jumping off of a building. A 787 battery fire would have been analogous to that. Depending on what exactly burned and what altitude they were at when it started and how close they were to an airport, it MIGHT have been survivable if everything lined up just right. Contrasted with MCAS where it was survivable if they had done some relatively simple tasks in order. Again, I'm not "blaming" the pilots. Not only was training and information lacking (before Lion Air) but there were multiple symptoms happening simultaneously.
Last edited by planecane on Wed Aug 14, 2019 9:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
bob75013
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Aug 14, 2019 9:36 pm

ArgentoSystems wrote:
Lawsuits are beginning to materialize.
https://www.the-star.co.ke/business/ken ... st-boeing/



I believe the Warsaw Convention, as ammended, applies to ET as it was an interntional flight. Thus damages for those unfortunate souls will not come anywhere close to $1 billion.
 
ArgentoSystems
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Aug 14, 2019 9:39 pm

bob75013 wrote:
ArgentoSystems wrote:
Lawsuits are beginning to materialize.
https://www.the-star.co.ke/business/ken ... st-boeing/



I believe the Warsaw Convention, as ammended, applies to ET as it was an interntional flight. Thus damages for those unfortunate souls will not come anywhere close to $1 billion.


Warsaw Convention is irrelevant. It limits liability of the carrier. They are suing Boeing.
 
RandWkop
Posts: 178
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Aug 14, 2019 9:45 pm

WIederling wrote:
MSPNWA wrote:
aerolimani wrote:
And, why is it grounded? Is it because pilots are poorly trained, and we need this break so that all commercial pilots can go through more training?


The plane is grounded in part due to poor pilot training/skill. That factor is completely on topic.

Decidedly NOT grounded on training issues.
training issues would ground pilots, wouldn't it.

Boeing has only ever announced changes to the hardware ( and software working on that hardware).
No move has been made by Boeing to lay out plans for a proper training curriculum ( as changed reference for schools, airlines ).

Another one of these icky smear campaigners ?
and guess what: MAX are grounded in the domain of the "God Pilots" too.

Great point. The CAAs of several countries, Germany, Britain, China, grounded the MAX before the EASA and FAA. I don't see how the FAA and EASA could have hid behind an excuse of poor pilot training in the face of the pressure they were under to ground the plane. How could they turn around and say that an airline like ET had sub standard training. That would be admitting that they had been putting thousands of their own citizens at risk for years by allowing ET flying rights in Europe and the US.

On another point, Wilbur Ross noted that US economic growth would improve when the MAX is back in the air.
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/08/14/w ... solve.html
 
ArgentoSystems
Posts: 294
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Aug 14, 2019 9:47 pm

RandWkop wrote:
On another point, Wilbur Ross noted that US economic growth would improve when the MAX is back in the air.
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/08/14/w ... solve.html

I was laughing at this news. Must be a slow day. What's next, they going to report that sky is blue?
 
kalvado
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Aug 14, 2019 9:50 pm

planecane wrote:
ArgentoSystems wrote:
planecane wrote:
If your statement is telling me that my opinion that the MCAS failures were recoverable is wrong, The safe and uneventful landing of Lion Air 043 tells me I'm not wrong. Yes, there was a 3rd pilot that recognized what needed to be done. The fact is that when they did what he said to do the failure was recoverable.


Jumping from the roof of a 9-storey building is also recoverable, potentially. If 100 people were to jump, there will be a few suffering only (relatively speaking) minor injuries, like broken legs, and who would fully recover. Following your logic we could declare jumping from heights safe, and if some people do not survive the fall then it is their own fault for not following proper jumping technique.


That analogy is ridiculous. Lion Air 043 recovered easily. On Lion Air 610, the captain was able to keep flying by countering MCAS trim inputs for several minutes until he gave the FO control that stopped doing that for some reason, which I hope we will discover in the final report. Had they known to cut off the electric trim and done so at any point after the captain countered MCAS, they would have recovered and landed safely just like Lion Air 043.

ET302 was countering the MCAS input when they cut off electric trim while still out of trim. Assuming that the electric trim was able to continue to move the stabilizer (which I won't say for certain until the final report), had they waited to cut off the electric trim until they were back in trim it would have been recoverable.

I'm not arguing pilot error or what they SHOULD have done. I'm pointing out what they COULD have done to recover and what was done on at least one flight with an MCAS failure. This is not remotely analogous to jumping off of a building. A 787 battery fire would have been analogous to that. Depending on what exactly burned and what altitude they were at when it started and how close they were to an airport, it MIGHT have been survivable if everything lined up just right. Contrasted with MCAS where it was survivable if they had done some relatively simple tasks in order. Again, I'm not "blaming" the pilots. Not only was training and information lacking (before Lion Air) but there were multiple symptoms happening simultaneously.

I guess the true answer is that you want to see glass half full, not half empty - while the reality is that water is actually leaking.
I do stand by my comment: MCAS events had a path for recovery - but that is a narrow path, which is actually fairly obvious (after a few hours of analysis in a comfort of office at zero airspeed ).
 
dcajet
Posts: 3920
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Due to the 737 MAX grounding, GOL is leasing 13 737NG

Wed Aug 14, 2019 10:48 pm

Critically short of capacity with 7 MAXX grounded and new deliveries delayed indefinitely, and with the peak summer travel season coming up, GOL is adding 13 737NG from different sources.

* 6 ex Jet Airways 737-800. 5 are already flying within Brazil and neighboring countries such as Argentina, (PR-GZE; PR-GZF; PR-GZG, PR-GZH & PR-GZI) 1 more is due to arrive over the next weeks.

* 5 Transavia 737-800 are being leased, and will take up the following Brazilian registrations: PR-HSB, PR-HSW, PR-HXG, PR-HXK & PR-HXO.

* 1 additional ex Jet Airways 737-800, currently VT-JBK

* 1 737-700 from TUI Belgium, currently OO-JOS
"Unattended children will be given espresso and a free kitten"
 
MSPNWA
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Aug 14, 2019 10:57 pm

WIederling wrote:
Decidedly NOT grounded on training issues.
training issues would ground pilots, wouldn't it.

Boeing has only ever announced changes to the hardware ( and software working on that hardware).
No move has been made by Boeing to lay out plans for a proper training curriculum ( as changed reference for schools, airlines ).

Another one of these icky smear campaigners ?
and guess what: MAX are grounded in the domain of the "God Pilots" too.

You're misunderstanding the grounding. Grounding an aircraft is presumably to prevent another accident. It doesn't mean that only the airplane is to blame. That's a faulty conclusion.

Ask yourself the questions. Is this plane grounded without crashes? No. Has this plane crashed without serious mistakes in operation? No.

The only logical conclusion is the plane is grounded in part due to poor pilot skills/training. It's disturbing that apparently only one hole is required to be plugged. That's not a culture of safety.
Last edited by MSPNWA on Wed Aug 14, 2019 10:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
planecane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Aug 14, 2019 10:57 pm

kalvado wrote:
planecane wrote:
ArgentoSystems wrote:

Jumping from the roof of a 9-storey building is also recoverable, potentially. If 100 people were to jump, there will be a few suffering only (relatively speaking) minor injuries, like broken legs, and who would fully recover. Following your logic we could declare jumping from heights safe, and if some people do not survive the fall then it is their own fault for not following proper jumping technique.


That analogy is ridiculous. Lion Air 043 recovered easily. On Lion Air 610, the captain was able to keep flying by countering MCAS trim inputs for several minutes until he gave the FO control that stopped doing that for some reason, which I hope we will discover in the final report. Had they known to cut off the electric trim and done so at any point after the captain countered MCAS, they would have recovered and landed safely just like Lion Air 043.

ET302 was countering the MCAS input when they cut off electric trim while still out of trim. Assuming that the electric trim was able to continue to move the stabilizer (which I won't say for certain until the final report), had they waited to cut off the electric trim until they were back in trim it would have been recoverable.

I'm not arguing pilot error or what they SHOULD have done. I'm pointing out what they COULD have done to recover and what was done on at least one flight with an MCAS failure. This is not remotely analogous to jumping off of a building. A 787 battery fire would have been analogous to that. Depending on what exactly burned and what altitude they were at when it started and how close they were to an airport, it MIGHT have been survivable if everything lined up just right. Contrasted with MCAS where it was survivable if they had done some relatively simple tasks in order. Again, I'm not "blaming" the pilots. Not only was training and information lacking (before Lion Air) but there were multiple symptoms happening simultaneously.


I guess the true answer is that you want to see glass half full, not half empty - while the reality is that water is actually leaking.
I do stand by my comment: MCAS events had a path for recovery - but that is a narrow path, which is actually fairly obvious (after a few hours of analysis in a comfort of office at zero airspeed ).


First off, this conversation started because I was comparing the 787 battery fire situation as being potentially much more catastrophic than the MCAS failures. It's not wanting to see the glass half full vs. half empty. I can certainly understand why Lion Air 610 was unable to recover. Until the final ET report, I don't really understand why they weren't because they seemed to recognize what was going on and what needed to be done.

I will disagree that the path to recovery was very narrow. If it was narrow, then why were both crash flights able to maintain altitude for a period of minutes before entering the final nose dive? In the case of ET, they were maintaining altitude until they turned the electric trim back on. If by narrow you mean that they had to recognize the situation and then perform a series of tasks correctly and in the correct order, then I will agree with you.

There is no argument that MCAS 1.0 was a terrible design which created emergency situations at an unacceptable rate. It is especially tragic because it could have relatively easily been designed sot hat it didn't create a potentially catastrophic situation under any failure scenario. Because of this, the grounding was certainly warranted and it should stay grounded until Boeing demonstrates that there is no chance of MCAS (or the FCC in general) causing a runaway stabilizer. It is a very serious failure mode and therefore the aircraft should be designed well enough that it extremely rarely, if ever occurs (which seems to have been the case on the 737NG).
 
sgrow787
Posts: 151
Joined: Fri May 16, 2014 8:12 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Wed Aug 14, 2019 11:28 pm

planecane wrote:

Pot calling the kettle black? It doesn't matter what I post, you (and others) will try and figure out a way to argue over it.

But your posts seem oddly typical of a PR operative, with the continuing attempts to reframe the debate around pilot performance rather than certification issues.

planecane wrote:

My response had NOTHING TO DO WITH CERTIFICATION.

Your response had both nothing and everything to do with it. By reiterating the importance of pilot blame you are simultaneously supporting the notion that Boeing really did think the their assumptions about pilot performance during a MCAS runaway event were valid. There is significant information that debunks that, information that strongly shows an aerospace company maneuvering the certification process, from the miscategorization of MCAS, to the omittance of MCAS in pilots manuals, all to meet a time to market deadline.

They didnt want MCAS in the FCOM because some pilots out there might get the gumption to ask where the AOA disagree light is, and why is there only one AOA sensor being used, and then the likely subsequent grounding because pilots refuse to fly the plane.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 5389
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Re: Due to the 737 MAX grounding, GOL is leasing 13 737NG

Wed Aug 14, 2019 11:59 pm

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