WIederling
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Sep 29, 2019 2:45 pm

lightsaber wrote:
If the paralysis goes to long, this will stifle innovation. Look at how long it took for the Cessna Longitude to be certified.


What kind of innovation would you expect to be "stifled" on the 737MAX? :-)

Cessna Longitude is a derivation of the Latitude, right?
What do the Skycatcher and Longitude have in common?
Both show a difficult abortive gestation, apparently.

could it be that Cessna is unable to abstract its knowledge
and work from there towards a new design?
Murphy is an optimist
 
Heinkel
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Sep 29, 2019 2:50 pm

Francoflier wrote:
Elshad wrote:
Every Boeing statement on this issue reads like something out of Baghdad Bob. Full of platitudes and BS like “we are fully committed to” etc. They don’t seem to grasp the seriousness of the situation.


I'm fairly certain that Boeing's public communications are severely censored by their own lawyers. There is little they can say that would not either be a lie or could be construed by the countless plaintiffs' lawyers as an admission of guilt.

Not a good time to work for PR at Boeing...


The Boeing shares perform surprisingly well. I own one single Boeing share only but I ask me the question: Do the investors know more than we know?
 
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Aesma
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Sep 29, 2019 3:11 pm

Bonds have very low yield at the moment, and there is too much money around, so people buy stocks, regardless of risk, especially if they're seen as "blue chip".
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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Aesma
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Sep 29, 2019 3:13 pm

lightsaber wrote:
If the paralysis goes to long, this will stifle innovation. Look at how long it took for the Cessna Longitude to be certified. Ironically, stricter rules inhibits new entrants.

The requirement isn't perfection. The requirement is proving the pilots can be trained to recover.

Lightsaber


Boeing stifled innovation when it went with the MAX instead of a new, clean sheet design, that wouldn't have looked like the Frankenstein thing the MAX is.

It turns out this decision, made for economic reasons, will lose them money.

For once the market works as it should.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Sep 29, 2019 3:16 pm

DenverTed wrote:
My bet right now is mid November has slipped and the earliest the first revenue flight could be is mid January on WN.

FAA has already said they'd need ~4 weeks after any certification test flight as as far as we know that hasn't happened, so October is pretty much a write off already.
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Sep 29, 2019 3:22 pm

Aesma wrote:
Boeing stifled innovation when it went with the MAX instead of a new, clean sheet design, that wouldn't have looked like the Frankenstein thing the MAX is.

It turns out this decision, made for economic reasons, will lose them money.

For once the market works as it should.

Innovation comes with its own risks.

See: 787, also said to never make money.

A 2011 "NSA" was shown to not make money.

In fact the decision to do MAX was largely made because they could not figure out how to make money on the 2011 NSA.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
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wingman
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Sep 29, 2019 3:33 pm

2175301 wrote:
I have only now had time to fully read the NTSB report; and would like to comment on what the USA NTSB report says and indicates to me.

Agree with CapCdt, that is a great post. Without his comment I likely would've missed it. If the description of the process, or categorization, failure turns out to be the consensus amongst the regulators as to how MCAS and it's associated documentation and training (or lack thereof more like it) ended up in the MAX, then I read it as a genuine mistake on Boeing's part. I suppose in time we'll know if engineers and/or management were aware that the runaway was more likely or definitely "Catastrophic" vs. "Major". Then we'd have cause for negligence. With a rating of "Major" it sounds like the sim training accounts only for that error and without the accompanying bells and whistles pointing out all of the other problems seemingly going on (so pilots don't know what the real problem is). I expect that sim training upon return to service will be of the "Catastrophic" kind where it's the full Techno show. And back to the "less than average pilot" dialogue, we see that pilots for both Boeing and Airbus repeatedly perform below par, to the point of death, with planes flyable to the nearest runway, when the belts and whistles are going off. How more automation, more systems and more bells and whistles will solve this problem is beyond me. Basic skills and retraining of them annually as a core competency required for flight clearance has to feature, and feature prominently.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Sep 29, 2019 3:59 pm

wingman wrote:
Agree with CapCdt, that is a great post. Without his comment I likely would've missed it. If the description of the process, or categorization, failure turns out to be the consensus amongst the regulators as to how MCAS and it's associated documentation and training (or lack thereof more like it) ended up in the MAX, then I read it as a genuine mistake on Boeing's part. I suppose in time we'll know if engineers and/or management were aware that the runaway was more likely or definitely "Catastrophic" vs. "Major". Then we'd have cause for negligence. With a rating of "Major" it sounds like the sim training accounts only for that error and without the accompanying bells and whistles pointing out all of the other problems seemingly going on (so pilots don't know what the real problem is). I expect that sim training upon return to service will be of the "Catastrophic" kind where it's the full Techno show. And back to the "less than average pilot" dialogue, we see that pilots for both Boeing and Airbus repeatedly perform below par, to the point of death, with planes flyable to the nearest runway, when the belts and whistles are going off. How more automation, more systems and more bells and whistles will solve this problem is beyond me. Basic skills and retraining of them annually as a core competency required for flight clearance has to feature, and feature prominently.

Yep, the "genuine mistake" vs "negligence" thing was a central issue months ago, yet IMO is still open with return to service a few weeks away.

We have some gossip style quotes in various media outlets, but so far no "smoking gun" evidence to destroy the plausible deniability defense.

It's not clear to me that we will ever get closure on the issue.

Boeing has begun pay outs so we get de-facto admission of liability but nothing beyond that, so far.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
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Vladex
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Sep 29, 2019 5:25 pm

RickNRoll wrote:
XRAYretired wrote:
RickNRoll wrote:

Like Rolls Royce when there was the near disaster with QF32. They never said a word. SOP.


Completely off topica nd will probably be removed. But hey anything to support the beloved.

Event was on 4th November.

'Rolls Royce reported on Nov 8th that they are making progress in understanding what caused the failure of the Qantas engine. It has become clear that this failure is specific to the Trent 900 series, the failure of the test Trent 1000 was unrelated.

On Nov 10th the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) issued an Emergency Airworthiness Directive for all Trent 900 engines reporting that "an oil fire in the HP/IP structure cavity may have caused the failure of the Intermediate Pressure Turbine (IPT) Disk". The EAD requires extensive inspections within the next 10 flight cycles to be repeated within every 20 flight cycles.

On Nov 12th Rolls Royce said in a press release that the examination of the accident engine as well as the inspection results permitted Rolls Royce to draw two key conclusions:

- The issue is specific to the Trent 900 engine series.
- The failure was confined to a specific component in the turbine area of the engine. This caused an oil fire, which led to the release of the intermediate pressure turbine disc.

The inspections are going to continue and will be supplemented by the replacement of the relevant module according to an agreed programme.'
avherald.com/h?article=43309c6d/0032&opt=0

Preliminary report was issued on 3rd December effectively concluding cause.

Ray
I mean no apologies, acceptance of guilt, public admission of liability. I could be wrong but I don't recall any.

Boeing has agreed the planes crashed and issued air directives. No admission of liability.


It's a public company, who would issue an apology?
 
WIederling
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Sep 29, 2019 5:33 pm

Vladex wrote:
RickNRoll wrote:
XRAYretired wrote:

Completely off topica nd will probably be removed. But hey anything to support the beloved.

Event was on 4th November.

'Rolls Royce reported on Nov 8th that they are making progress in understanding what caused the failure of the Qantas engine. It has become clear that this failure is specific to the Trent 900 series, the failure of the test Trent 1000 was unrelated.

On Nov 10th the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) issued an Emergency Airworthiness Directive for all Trent 900 engines reporting that "an oil fire in the HP/IP structure cavity may have caused the failure of the Intermediate Pressure Turbine (IPT) Disk". The EAD requires extensive inspections within the next 10 flight cycles to be repeated within every 20 flight cycles.

On Nov 12th Rolls Royce said in a press release that the examination of the accident engine as well as the inspection results permitted Rolls Royce to draw two key conclusions:

- The issue is specific to the Trent 900 engine series.
- The failure was confined to a specific component in the turbine area of the engine. This caused an oil fire, which led to the release of the intermediate pressure turbine disc.

The inspections are going to continue and will be supplemented by the replacement of the relevant module according to an agreed programme.'
avherald.com/h?article=43309c6d/0032&opt=0

Preliminary report was issued on 3rd December effectively concluding cause.

Ray
I mean no apologies, acceptance of guilt, public admission of liability. I could be wrong but I don't recall any.

Boeing has agreed the planes crashed and issued air directives. No admission of liability.


It's a public company, who would issue an apology?


COO or BOD as representative of the company.
Others have come across this issue and "managed to apologize". Except when it is "not in your DNA" :-(
Murphy is an optimist
 
dangle
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Sep 29, 2019 8:23 pm

WSJ article today suggesting that MAX's MCAS was suggested by Boeing engineers that designed an MCAS for the KC-46A Pegasus. Goes on to describe significant differences between the MAX and KC-46A implementations:

In a key difference from the subsequent version of the system used on the MAX, the system on the tanker moves the plane’s horizontal stabilizer—the control surface perpendicular to the airplane’s tail—once per activation and not repeatedly, the person familiar with the tanker project said.

The more advanced flight-control computer systems on the tanker also made it easier for MCAS to compare data from multiple sensors, the person familiar with the tanker project said. “The underlying architecture was there to take advantage of,” this person said.

Aside from sensors, the tanker MCAS has another key safeguard. Pilots of the tanker can override MCAS by simply pulling back on controls, according to a senior Air Force official and others familiar with the matter.

“We have better sensor data,” said Will Roper, an assistant Air Force secretary who is the branch’s procurement chief. “But most importantly, when the pilot grabs the stick, the pilot is completely in control.”


https://www.wsj.com/articles/before-737 ... _lead_pos2
 
sgrow787
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Sep 29, 2019 8:45 pm

Not just you. Article from the New York Times reports that Boeing made a move around the time of the MCAS changes, that tech pilots would transition from being active pilots. Mark Forkner, the Boeing employee who was in the news recently for refusing to turn over subpoenaed documents, was one of those tech pilots. He now works for one of Boeing’s most loyal customers.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/01/busi ... crash.html

Like others, Mr. Forkner may have had an imperfect understanding of MCAS.
Technical pilots at Boeing like him previously flew planes regularly, two former employees said. “Then the company made a strategic change where they decided tech pilots would no longer be active pilots,” Mr. Ludtke said.
Mr. Forkner largely worked on flight simulators, which didn’t fully mimic MCAS.


So no, you’re not alone. Looks like Boeing’s compartmentalized approach worked to keep MCAS details known only to a very few.
Just one sensor,
Oh just one se-en-sor,
Just one sensor,
Ooh ooh oo-ooh
Oo-oo-ooh.
 
sgrow787
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Sep 29, 2019 10:14 pm

WIederling wrote:
par13del wrote:
On the 737, only one side in all 3 documented MCAS incidents had faulty readings, did it make a difference to the pilots, was there enough time?
We await the final reports and the OEM / FAA rebuttals if any.


Pilots can chose which side they believe.
( that may have been another tripping point: in an apparently sane flight state one set of sensors acted up
and triggered the linked alarms. Crew decision follows accordingly .. )

MCAS could not. Stuck with the error.

Before MCAS AoA and things were aids and not control inputs, right?


We determined in the previous quarter that angle of attack affects computed airspeed, and some claim static pressure which affects altitude. I don't know what the credence is for the latter.
Just one sensor,
Oh just one se-en-sor,
Just one sensor,
Ooh ooh oo-ooh
Oo-oo-ooh.
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Sep 29, 2019 10:59 pm

And onto the Q4 thread...
I think that this is taking draconian dimensions.
Boeing should survive this mess, but they won't come out of it a stronger company.

I wonder why this is taking so long.
At this point, I think that it's safe to say that it goes beyond simple system architecture issues.
Perhaps the flight envelope needs to be reevaluated as well?
 
hivue
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Sep 29, 2019 11:12 pm

Revelation wrote:
You may want to also note NTSB's push back on the FAA's four second reaction time with 100% accuracy standard, and its desire to shift to the ill-defined "average pilot" standard instead, which is troubling because forty nine percent of pilots are below average.


49% of pilots are below the median, not the average. If the distribution can -- through higher standards, better training, better selection processes, better initial quality of applicants, etc. -- be biased sufficiently to the upper end of whatever measuring scale is used, then below average pilots can end up pretty small in number.
"You're sitting. In a chair. In the SKY!!" ~ Louis C.K.
 
RickNRoll
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Sun Sep 29, 2019 11:50 pm

Revelation wrote:
Aesma wrote:
Boeing stifled innovation when it went with the MAX instead of a new, clean sheet design, that wouldn't have looked like the Frankenstein thing the MAX is.

It turns out this decision, made for economic reasons, will lose them money.

For once the market works as it should.

Innovation comes with its own risks.

See: 787, also said to never make money.

A 2011 "NSA" was shown to not make money.

In fact the decision to do MAX was largely made because they could not figure out how to make money on the 2011 NSA.


They would have made money on it, just not as much as they could have on a warmed over NG/Classsic/Jurassic. It's a matter of viewing investments in the long term, not just the short term.
 
Scotron12
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Mon Sep 30, 2019 12:57 am

Raises another question as to why the same MCAS design was not incorporated into the 737...unless there was a technical reason for not doing so. Or maybe it was purely commercial??
 
kalvado
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Mon Sep 30, 2019 1:40 am

Scotron12 wrote:
Raises another question as to why the same MCAS design was not incorporated into the 737...unless there was a technical reason for not doing so. Or maybe it was purely commercial??

given most likely different computer architectures of two planes, differences in.. in almost everything, probably - a direct copy of the code, even algorithm, would hardly be beneficial. Sharing an idea - just move the stab - is probably as much as it was feasible.
 
RickNRoll
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Mon Sep 30, 2019 1:56 am

Scotron12 wrote:
Raises another question as to why the same MCAS design was not incorporated into the 737...unless there was a technical reason for not doing so. Or maybe it was purely commercial??

737 didn't have enough AoA sensors for one thing.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Mon Sep 30, 2019 3:03 am

About training for extreme situations in the sim, wouldn't the problem be that many pilots would fail ? Would the lesson be learned with a failure, and so considered a pass anyway ?
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Mon Sep 30, 2019 3:15 am

Depends on what the sim session is for, to show how unsafe an a/c can be in extreme situations or to learn where the pilots are weak and adjust training programs to compensate so that they ultimately recover from every situation.
.
 
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Francoflier
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Mon Sep 30, 2019 4:26 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
And onto the Q4 thread...
I think that this is taking draconian dimensions.
Boeing should survive this mess, but they won't come out of it a stronger company.

I wonder why this is taking so long.
At this point, I think that it's safe to say that it goes beyond simple system architecture issues.
Perhaps the flight envelope needs to be reevaluated as well?


Boeing has been saying for a while that they expect the plane to be back in service in Q4. They initially said October, although they may have pushed that back a bit since.

That the grounding (and the thread) would go into Q4 has always been a certainty. How long into it it lasts is the real question.

The clock starts tomorrow...
I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.
 
MildBlueYonder
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Mon Sep 30, 2019 5:09 am

Revelation wrote:
Aesma wrote:
Boeing stifled innovation when it went with the MAX instead of a new, clean sheet design, that wouldn't have looked like the Frankenstein thing the MAX is.

It turns out this decision, made for economic reasons, will lose them money.

For once the market works as it should.

Innovation comes with its own risks.

See: 787, also said to never make money.

A 2011 "NSA" was shown to not make money.

In fact the decision to do MAX was largely made because they could not figure out how to make money on the 2011 NSA.


787 and MAX were birthed from the same corporate culture.

For a better comparison of converting risk to reward, ref. original 777 program under Alan Mulally: world's largest twin, fly-by-wire, CATIA resulting in best-selling widebody of all time, delivered on-time with no groundings, and only 2.5 deaths attributable to the airframe (discounting the MAS outliers and apportioning some blame to the SFO ARFF that ran over one of the OZ 214 survivors). I'll be very curious to see how 777X derivative development plays out under current Boeing management.
 
lizhien
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Mon Sep 30, 2019 5:17 am

SilkAir’s first 737 max 8 aircraft 9V-MBA has arrived at Alice Springs for storage. There are 5 more aircrafts to be ferried.
 
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flyingphil
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Mon Sep 30, 2019 7:15 am

Boeing are having an awful year .. and the reputation of the 737 will not be helped by this latest story...

https://amp.businessinsider.com/boeing- ... nes-2019-9

“A vital Boeing 737 Next Gen part that attaches the plane's body to its wings is having a 'cracking issue'“

However ..
“The 737 Max, which was grounded in March after two fatal plane crashes, is not affected by this issue.”
 
Alfons
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Mon Sep 30, 2019 7:51 am

I'm not asking myself if the MAX will ever be evaluated as very safe again. One day it will. I'm more asking myself if people will ever want to fly with it again. I know that this messageboard and this community might be the wrong place to ask this question. I would more like to put this question in a psychology messageboard ;-).

I understand when people write here that planes crashed already in the past, and still people kept flying later with it, or after the ungrounding. But when was that? And were the content and drive that the media has today writing on it, the same then? Were the topics of the past crashes in the media just technical, or also about the safety culture of the affected airline manufacturer? Presenting the CEO of the manufacturer as cold, non-compliant, heartless, not apologetic person? I think this is the main crash of Boeing, not the MAX. That's the main crash perceived by the public, and what the public will remember also tomorrow.

You don't buy an electronic on Amazon because the spec sheets sound great, but because all comments of reviewers are top. Means, you put your money on what you trust, not just on shine, or because it's affordable. And even more, when your life counts on it, or the life of someone close to you. Lost trust takes a lot of time and effort to get it back. Many here's trust on Boeing is based on components that are related to past and present connections to the company directly, or the value of Boeing in their mind (american vs. the rest., shares, employment/past/in the family, envy, others). But most passengers won't be owners of such trust components, they will have zero relationship with the manufacturer above the flight ticket. With them, trust will have to be re-built.

I don't think Boeing today is following only Plan A (bring MAX back flying). They started last year to work also on Plan B (and C). They have the people for that, and the responsibility for their business continuity.

I believe the MAX will get authorisation to fly again, but I think the product will stop selling after some time. Airlines won't buy (a great product), if just 10% of the public will boycot to put a feet on it.

Alfons
 
WIederling
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Mon Sep 30, 2019 8:08 am

MildBlueYonder wrote:
For a better comparison of converting risk to reward, ref. original 777 program under Alan Mulally: world's largest twin, fly-by-wire, CATIA resulting in best-selling widebody of all time, delivered on-time with no groundings, and only 2.5 deaths attributable to the airframe (discounting the MAS outliers and apportioning some blame to the SFO ARFF that ran over one of the OZ 214 survivors). I'll be very curious to see how 777X derivative development plays out under current Boeing management.


The 777 also broke the budget by about 100%. ( though IMU they did the right thing : throw more money to do it right and more or less on time. and .. achieved! , but what was so expensive on the 777? Full FBW, Large Twin was established state of the art. Engine was not Boeing's work. 777 was nothing more than a scaled A330 :-)))) with a 767 nose )

The NG seems to have been unremarkable? but they screwed the pooch with the production revamp. another expensive intermezzo.

787 was a major over promise and broke all records in Over Time and Over Budget due to management ( Boeing, Partners ) working inside a perfect filter bubble thinking that "in detail design" is a hobbyist activity ( battery charger: perfect example).

Today tears are shed over the broken pieces of the MAX ( did Boeing ever divulge what they spent overall up to EIS on the MAX? a lot more changes out view than one would have expected, that new tail, .. )

tomorrow ...
Murphy is an optimist
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Mon Sep 30, 2019 8:26 am

Please continue discussion on Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1432067
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