ist2014
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Re: Future operators of Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner

Sat Jul 06, 2019 1:16 pm

I think 787-10 would be a great addition to TK s fleet. Can do our european/cis/me/indian sub continent and some of far east routes.
I have one question: how 787-10 can handle TK s us routes, can it easily handle : iad,atl,iah,mia and ord or not? If yes a great machine which will be smaller than 77w so better load factors as well
 
musman9853
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Re: Future operators of Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner

Sat Jul 06, 2019 1:30 pm

ZK-NBT wrote:
moa999 wrote:
musman9853 wrote:
Really doubt qf gets the a330neo when they already have a sizable fleet of 788s and 789s to fulfill that niche. No point increasing fleet complexity for no reason


Equally don't see QF. The 330 fleet still has some life left.
Might be one more small order of 789s, then onto 777/350 deliveries, plus 321XLRs.

If anything once Jetstar gets its 321LRs and later XLRs they may send some 788s back to QF.

And ideally Qantas would likely want a cheap capable 797 for domestic routes


Personally I’d see QF getting 78Js as an A333 replacement at least for some of the busier routes into Asia.

They may end up with JQ 788s weather they would use them domestically or long haul remains to be seen.

but even that would be quite a few years off. the oldest a330-300 nin qfs fleet is iirc like 16 years old. still plenty of life left.
Welcome to the City Beautiful.
 
SeoulIncheon
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Re: Future operators of Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner

Sat Jul 06, 2019 2:22 pm

I expect KE to deploy 787-10 to mostly Asian routes (short-haul) without a need for F class. KE does not have F-class hardware that suits 787 (apparently not willing to install 1-1-1 Kosmo Suites on 787), and needs to replace A330s (old ones - late 90s build) as well as 772s (late 90s to mid 00s) and 773s (late 90s) which are being deployed mostly to Japan/China and Southeast Asia. Good fuel economy, with around 300 seats, and the flights will be mostly within 2,000nm.
 
mig17
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Re: Future operators of Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner

Sat Jul 06, 2019 3:57 pm

Looking at the current 787 orderbook, I would say potential future -10 customers would be : AC, CA, AF/KL (top), AI, NH (top), AA, BA (top), LY, HU, QF, QR, UA (top), ...
727 AT, 737 UX/SK/TO/SS, 747 UT/AF/SQ/BA/SS, 767 UA, 777 AF, A300 IW/TG, A310 EK, A318/19/20/21 AF/U2/VY, A332/3 EK/QR/TX, A343 AF, A388 AF, E145/170/190 A5/WF, Q400 WF, ATR 72 A5/TX, CRJ100/700/1000 A5, C-150/172, PC-6.
 
EChid
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Re: Future operators of Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner

Sat Jul 06, 2019 4:11 pm

musman9853 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
moa999 wrote:

Equally don't see QF. The 330 fleet still has some life left.
Might be one more small order of 789s, then onto 777/350 deliveries, plus 321XLRs.

If anything once Jetstar gets its 321LRs and later XLRs they may send some 788s back to QF.

And ideally Qantas would likely want a cheap capable 797 for domestic routes


Personally I’d see QF getting 78Js as an A333 replacement at least for some of the busier routes into Asia.

They may end up with JQ 788s weather they would use them domestically or long haul remains to be seen.

but even that would be quite a few years off. the oldest a330-300 nin qfs fleet is iirc like 16 years old. still plenty of life left.

Add this to the fact that, due to accounting/tax reasons, QF keeps their aircraft for a long period of time (just look at how long the 744s stayed in the fleet relative to everyone else), so I expect the A330s to be plying routes for them for a long time. Plus, the purchase of the -10 might be based on the outcome of their decision for Project Sunrise. They ultimately have asked for a plane that can easily do duty between the ultra longhaul and medium haul Asian route, so it may be that whatever plane that is ends up filling in for some of the potential -10 and 333 routes that you're thinking about right now.
2018: DRW-PER-HKG-ICN-MEL-AVV-BNE-OOL-SYD-YYZ-YYZ-YUL-YVR-PDX-SEA-SFO-PEK-KIX-CDG-IST-NRT-HND-BKK-FAT; AC J-TK J-OZ F-DL F-TG J/F-NH J/F-CX J-VA J
 
EChid
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Re: Future operators of Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner

Sat Jul 06, 2019 4:18 pm

mig17 wrote:
Looking at the current 787 orderbook, I would say potential future -10 customers would be : AC, CA, AF/KL (top), AI, NH (top), AA, BA (top), LY, HU, QF, QR, UA (top), ...

It depends how long in the future we are looking, but I really don't think AC is interested in the -10 for anything remotely near-term. The 333s are an excellent strategy for keeping costs low and meet all of their TATL/transcon needs range- and efficiency-wise. They're also investing in refitting the entire fleet of them with new J, PY, and Y interiors to match the rest of their widebodies (meaning they will soon feel like the newest/freshest planes in the fleet from normal pax perspective), so this indicates to me that AC expects them to be in the fleet for a loooong time to come. And by that point, who knows what competitors will be in play as viable replacements.

Additionally, the only fleet needing refreshing in the short-term is Rouge, and Rouge has never had planes as large as the -10 in their arsenal. I don't think there is a particular desire to move to that scale yet, nor to spend that much cash on new planes for Rouge. Probably a decent chance of AC just buying some more used 333s (or a 797/XLR combo).
2018: DRW-PER-HKG-ICN-MEL-AVV-BNE-OOL-SYD-YYZ-YYZ-YUL-YVR-PDX-SEA-SFO-PEK-KIX-CDG-IST-NRT-HND-BKK-FAT; AC J-TK J-OZ F-DL F-TG J/F-NH J/F-CX J-VA J
 
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ElroyJetson
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Re: Future operators of Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner

Sat Jul 06, 2019 4:35 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
NateGreat wrote:
I gotta say, the 78X looks rather sharp in DL colors.

Agree, though I've really yet to find a livery that 78X doesn't look fab in!

I do wonder though if DL would paint the rakes like that, were they to acquire them.



I think the 787-10 would be an outstanding choice for DL. SEA-ICN, SEA-PEK, SEA-TYO come to mind as well as JFK, DTW, and ATL to AMS and CDG. The economics would be unmatched versus any other aircraft.
707 717 727 72S 737 733 737-700 747 757 753 767-300 764 A319 A320 DC-9-10 DC-9-30 DC-9-50, MD-82 MD-88 MD-90 DC-10-10 DC-10-40 F-100
 
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MrHMSH
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Re: Future operators of Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner

Sat Jul 06, 2019 4:44 pm

ElroyJetson wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
NateGreat wrote:
I gotta say, the 78X looks rather sharp in DL colors.

Agree, though I've really yet to find a livery that 78X doesn't look fab in!

I do wonder though if DL would paint the rakes like that, were they to acquire them.


I think the 787-10 would be an outstanding choice for DL. SEA-ICN, SEA-PEK, SEA-TYO come to mind as well as JFK, DTW, and ATL to AMS and CDG. The economics would be unmatched versus any other aircraft.


Though all those routes you mention can be very efficiently operated by aircraft already in DL's fleet.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Future operators of Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner

Sat Jul 06, 2019 7:22 pm

MrHMSH wrote:
ElroyJetson wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
Agree, though I've really yet to find a livery that 78X doesn't look fab in!

I do wonder though if DL would paint the rakes like that, were they to acquire them.


I think the 787-10 would be an outstanding choice for DL. SEA-ICN, SEA-PEK, SEA-TYO come to mind as well as JFK, DTW, and ATL to AMS and CDG. The economics would be unmatched versus any other aircraft.


Though all those routes you mention can be very efficiently operated by aircraft already in DL's fleet.

Indeed, though for reason mentioned above (ability to place a huge number of J seats between A and B sections in 78X).... I could see them doing so in similar vein to how they use the A333 vs 764ER today, with the former being a low-J mass transporter and the latter being a high-J premium operator.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Future operators of Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner

Sat Jul 06, 2019 7:50 pm

BoeingGuy wrote:
Justin is a Marketing Manager now?

Has been for a while. Was doing 787s relevant to the time frame that my post references; was promoted this year to all N.Am products.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
travelhound
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Re: Future operators of Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner

Sun Jul 07, 2019 3:58 am

EChid wrote:
musman9853 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:

Personally I’d see QF getting 78Js as an A333 replacement at least for some of the busier routes into Asia.

They may end up with JQ 788s weather they would use them domestically or long haul remains to be seen.

but even that would be quite a few years off. the oldest a330-300 nin qfs fleet is iirc like 16 years old. still plenty of life left.

Add this to the fact that, due to accounting/tax reasons, QF keeps their aircraft for a long period of time (just look at how long the 744s stayed in the fleet relative to everyone else), so I expect the A330s to be plying routes for them for a long time. Plus, the purchase of the -10 might be based on the outcome of their decision for Project Sunrise. They ultimately have asked for a plane that can easily do duty between the ultra longhaul and medium haul Asian route, so it may be that whatever plane that is ends up filling in for some of the potential -10 and 333 routes that you're thinking about right now.


The QF A333's are in the 16-17 year old age bracket and as such will be up for replacement in the very near future.

I suspect a 787-10 order will come with project sunrise decision, regardless on who wins the order.
 
moa999
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Re: Future operators of Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner

Sun Jul 07, 2019 4:35 am

travelhound wrote:
The QF A333's are in the 16-17 year old age bracket and as such will be up for replacement in the very near future.
.


332s EBA-EBD are 2002-03
333s QPA-QPG are 2003-05
332s EBL-EBV are 2008-12 deliveries
 
Tokyo777
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Re: Future operators of Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner

Sun Jul 07, 2019 5:11 am

ElroyJetson wrote:
I think the 787-10 would be an outstanding choice for DL. SEA-ICN, SEA-PEK, SEA-TYO come to mind as well as JFK, DTW, and ATL to AMS and CDG. The economics would be unmatched versus any other aircraft.


Delta probably thinks otherwise. They currently operate a 763 SEA-ICN and SEA-PEK instead of say, an A330, 764, 772, or A359.

Remember, economics only work out if you fill the seats with passengers producing a yield. Empty seats or garbage fares don't help economics.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Future operators of Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner

Sun Jul 07, 2019 5:23 am

travelhound wrote:
EChid wrote:
musman9853 wrote:
but even that would be quite a few years off. the oldest a330-300 nin qfs fleet is iirc like 16 years old. still plenty of life left.

Add this to the fact that, due to accounting/tax reasons, QF keeps their aircraft for a long period of time (just look at how long the 744s stayed in the fleet relative to everyone else), so I expect the A330s to be plying routes for them for a long time. Plus, the purchase of the -10 might be based on the outcome of their decision for Project Sunrise. They ultimately have asked for a plane that can easily do duty between the ultra longhaul and medium haul Asian route, so it may be that whatever plane that is ends up filling in for some of the potential -10 and 333 routes that you're thinking about right now.


The QF A333's are in the 16-17 year old age bracket and as such will be up for replacement in the very near future.

I suspect a 787-10 order will come with project sunrise decision, regardless on who wins the order.


Probably for another thread but Alan Joyce himself has made positive comments about the 78J in the past, and sure That doesn’t mean anything necessarily but QF have 789s and the 78J would be an easy addition and great as an A333 replacement, sure it’s a few years out yet maybe 2025 but personally I’d be surprised if they didn’t order it. QF will end up with a 787/777 or 787/350 fleet in the long term early 2030s it’s just the exact mix that is obviously unknown, personally I’d see 35J/78J/789, but will be an interesting watch.
 
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OneSexyL1011
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Re: Future operators of Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner

Sun Jul 07, 2019 6:06 am

Such a fantastic, capable aircraft. The absolute perfect variant to compliment the smaller -9 brother. These two models are absolute game changers in the industry. Here at UA its been a resounding success. Its astonishing to see the performance to payload numbers for the routes we have the -10 on now compared to the 777's.
 
Gemuser
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Re: Future operators of Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner

Sun Jul 07, 2019 7:48 am

travelhound wrote:
The QF A333's are in the 16-17 year old age bracket and as such will be up for replacement in the very near future.

I suspect a 787-10 order will come with project sunrise decision, regardless on who wins the order.

We will just have to agree to disagree until the announcment. I still think the B78X size slot will be filled by the OEM who wins Project Sunrise.

Gemuser
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Future operators of Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner

Sun Jul 07, 2019 8:18 am

Tokyo777 wrote:
ElroyJetson wrote:
I think the 787-10 would be an outstanding choice for DL. SEA-ICN, SEA-PEK, SEA-TYO come to mind as well as JFK, DTW, and ATL to AMS and CDG. The economics would be unmatched versus any other aircraft.

Delta probably thinks otherwise. They currently operate a 763 SEA-ICN and SEA-PEK instead of say, an A330, 764, 772, or A359.

No they don't. Those routes are slated to transition to A339, when deliveries are sufficient to upgauge them.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
marcelh
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Re: Future operators of Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner

Sun Jul 07, 2019 8:52 am

OneSexyL1011 wrote:
Such a fantastic, capable aircraft. The absolute perfect variant to compliment the smaller -9 brother. These two models are absolute game changers in the industry. Here at UA its been a resounding success. Its astonishing to see the performance to payload numbers for the routes we have the -10 on now compared to the 777's.

Show the numbers please.
 
Geoff1947
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Re: Future operators of Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner

Sun Jul 07, 2019 12:03 pm

The 787-10 has been a relatively slow seller so I’ll be interested to see if it’s sales are about to accelerate.

Since the end of 2013 the 787-10 has gone from net sales of 132 to 173. For comparison the 787-9 has gone from 404 to 824 and the 787-8 from 494 to 453.

Geoff
 
Speedalive
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Re: Future operators of Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner

Sun Jul 07, 2019 12:21 pm

I think CX might be a contender for short haul intra-asian routes. It would provide commonality with the 779/77W. I'm definitely interested to see what will end up replacing their 773 fleet as well as the A333 when the time comes. The A333 fleet is decently young (with older frames being sent to KA, whom I think is an A339 contender) and they've been topping off the 773 fleet with ex-EK birds, so I feel like there's still some time before a decision will be made there.
 
musman9853
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Re: Future operators of Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner

Sun Jul 07, 2019 1:06 pm

Geoff1947 wrote:
The 787-10 has been a relatively slow seller so I’ll be interested to see if it’s sales are about to accelerate.

Since the end of 2013 the 787-10 has gone from net sales of 132 to 173. For comparison the 787-9 has gone from 404 to 824 and the 787-8 from 494 to 453.

Geoff


If rumors of a 78j pip for air nz is true, I could definitely see an increase in sales
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lightsaber
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Re: Future operators of Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner

Sun Jul 07, 2019 3:56 pm

Gemuser wrote:
travelhound wrote:
The QF A333's are in the 16-17 year old age bracket and as such will be up for replacement in the very near future.

I suspect a 787-10 order will come with project sunrise decision, regardless on who wins the order.

We will just have to agree to disagree until the announcment. I still think the B78X size slot will be filled by the OEM who wins Project Sunrise.

Gemuser

I do not think project sunrise is just about a few long haul aircraft anymore. The PR of winning that order is worth something. I too believe the winner of project sunrise will also replace the A330s as well as A380s and last 747s. I see it as a mixed order of sizes for the appropriate roles.

So if the 778 wins project sunrise, we will see 787-10 flying for QF. If Airbus wins, it will probably be A359s replacing A330s.

This is a brutal contest IMHO.

Lightsaber
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tealnz
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Re: Future operators of Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner

Sun Jul 07, 2019 10:42 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Scotron12 wrote:
Has it been offically confirmed that the 787-10 has gotten this range bump?? I can find no statement from Boeing that this so.

We know

“The 787-10 is longer and even more fuel efficient. However, the game changer for us has been that by working closely with Boeing, we've ensured the 787-10 will meet our network needs, including the ability to fly missions similar to our current 777-200 fleet.
https://www.airnewzealand.com/press-rel ... reamliners
So there is some range bump. In discussing AKL-EWR there was an efficiency improvement discussion. Hinting at an engine PIP:
https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/industri ... ork-direct
There have been hints of an empty weight reduction. It would be a surprise if Boeing wasn't trying to reduce weight in a new model.
There are also hints of a MTOW increase. The magnitude of both are pure speculation.
But yes, we know the 787-10 payload at range will improve. The question is by how much?
The fact it burns 25% less fuel than a 777-200ER makes it a sure seller.
Lightsaber

There is some further detail on the NZ decision now available from the transcript of the investor day presentation:
https://p-airnz.com/cms/assets/PDFs/airnz-2019-investor-day-transcript.pdf

What does this tell us about the NZ decision - and about the future -10?

- They were emphatic that the future growth outlook had eased and that they had therefore shifted to a more conservative capacity plan, with CapEx deferral and a focus on RASK improvement in existing markets

- They really like the numbers: "We think the operating economics are really outstanding... It gives us huge flexibility across crew, parts and maintenance. You think about pilots that can operate -9s and -10s. If you think about 95% of the components being common between our -9 and our -10 fleet, it's pretty special in terms of that".

- Ditto diversity and critical mass: "And finally, it also just gives us some supplier diversity, particularly given the growth in our fleet that we can now -- we've got critical mass and scale benefits out of our subfleets, but it just also gives us the right level of diversity as we go forward".

- They are really focused on shift to premium traffic: "We are seeing this move towards premium...So that's shaping our thinking as we look at the layout of passenger amenities, for one, our existing planes, but obviously in the future for the 787-10, the new planes as well". And: "As you think about something like New York, which we want to do, from Auckland to New York, we can do that with an existing 787-9 today. It just has to be reconfigured. And that's where this drive to premium is really important because the weight of the fuel, the weight of the cargo, the weight of the passengers and the sheer number of passengers that drive that weight is actually what limits our ability to make that destination or not make that destination. Our segmentation and our sales and marketing excellence, so then when we get to New York, as we have in Chicago and Houston and Buenos Aires, is to unearth wealthy high-value customers. We don't just want anybody on that seat, we want a high-value customer on that seat... I think we've got this decision perfect, and it's a really good one that will set us up well. The challenge now is to get the configuration right, get the premium mix right, and have confidence that we can get the high-value customer that we want out of those longer-haul destinations".

- They think they got a great price: "The last 2 years has been all about creating maximum contestability between Airbus, Rolls, GE and Boeing. And for us making sure that in that process, we can work our way through to get a good deal. So personally, from what we do around benchmarking and getting a sense of what we think others are paying for it, we think we've done exceptionally well in getting this deal signed up and across the line".

- Focus of the new fleet will be Asia, though the -10 will also be able to serve US West Coast: "Obviously, the bulk of the order, as we detailed today, will be -10s which we're mainly phasing into Asia. Good aircraft, perfectly placed for slot-constrained airports in Asia." ..."[And so that therefore] enables us to get into the West Coast as well".

- The -10 is still a mid to long haul frame. Longer routes will go to the -9: "And we're really well set up now with a really good aircraft type that's the most fuel-efficient aircraft type in its range, that opens up ultra long-haul destinations if it's a -9 or mid-haul -- mid-to long-haul destinations if it's -10 in slot-constrained airports".

- They really like the flexibility of a mixed -9 and -10 fleet and flexibility in the orders they've placed: "The other element of simplicity is that it's pretty much the same from an operational perspective as the 787-9s. So it doesn't add any operational complexity at all. So it's a simple order and the flexible nature of it is, as others have talked about, we can exchange some 10s for 9s if we choose to. And we can bring some planes early and later if we choose to".

So, great price, less pressure on capital at a time when the market is softening, great CASK, commonality with the -9s, a cabin that will let them boost premium capacity, perfect fit for Asian routes, diversification in engine suppliers, flexibility on types and timing in the order... That all makes sense. What doesn't come through is any hint that the -10 is also being positioned to replace the 77Ws. I guess we assume that the -10 won't be carrying much cargo out of LAX/SFO and that the 77Ws will provide the heavy metal until time comes to replace them. Meanwhile we're left to speculate on what additional capability Boeing have actually offered on the -10.
 
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OneSexyL1011
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Re: Future operators of Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner

Mon Jul 08, 2019 12:02 am

marcelh wrote:
OneSexyL1011 wrote:
Such a fantastic, capable aircraft. The absolute perfect variant to compliment the smaller -9 brother. These two models are absolute game changers in the industry. Here at UA its been a resounding success. Its astonishing to see the performance to payload numbers for the routes we have the -10 on now compared to the 777's.

Show the numbers please.

Unfortunately that info is proprietary, sorry.
 
Scotron12
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Re: Future operators of Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner

Mon Jul 08, 2019 12:51 am

Well..NZ is saying the 787-10 will do the bulk of their Asia routes and possibly LAX/SFO...but not ORD or NYC. They have the 787-9 for that. Im not saying the 787-10 will not bump...but there seems no specific details of what that bump will be.

Rgds
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Future operators of Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner

Mon Jul 08, 2019 1:21 am

Scotron12 wrote:
Well..NZ is saying the 787-10 will do the bulk of their Asia routes and possibly LAX/SFO...but not ORD or NYC. They have the 787-9 for that. Im not saying the 787-10 will not bump...but there seems no specific details of what that bump will be.

Rgds


What NZ actually said was that the 78J would do ‘similar’ missions to the 772, not all, but similar, the 772 right now goes to HKG/ LAX/SFO/IAH/YVR/EZE in terms of long haul, I can’t see it doing IAH while EZE it might not uplift enough reserve fuel for alternative diversion, YVR at a push can probably be done, while it will do HKG/LAX/SFO.

However as you say this first batch will mainly do Asia, HKG/SIN/NRT/PVG.
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: Future operators of Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner

Mon Jul 08, 2019 5:12 am

ist2014 wrote:
I think 787-10 would be a great addition to TK s fleet. Can do our european/cis/me/indian sub continent and some of far east routes.
I have one question: how 787-10 can handle TK s us routes, can it easily handle : iad,atl,iah,mia and ord or not? If yes a great machine which will be smaller than 77w so better load factors as well


I'm not sure about routes like IAH in TK's configuration...and LAX and SFO are a no. They could definitely do JFK (TK3/4) and the other East Coast destinations plus YYZ in Canada. However, I don't see YYZ seeing it since frequencies are bilateral-limited, and LAX and SFO are beyond its range. (JFK needs the capacity, but doesn't have a B77W-capable gate for TK3/4---JFK could become 1x daily B78X and 2x daily B77W, hauling more cargo on the B78X than currently on an A333).
 
ist2014
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Re: Future operators of Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner

Mon Jul 08, 2019 5:37 am

And I think all destination of TK, except Japan,MNL,Jakarta and Bali are at the range of 787-10, plus can be deployed for LHR,TLV, DXB at spare time
Let see
 
DFWA350
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Re: Future operators of Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner

Mon Jul 08, 2019 6:17 am

I don’t see TK ordering any 787-10 seeing as they have the A359 on order as a one size up from their 787-9.
 
travelhound
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Re: Future operators of Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner

Mon Jul 08, 2019 10:26 am

lightsaber wrote:
Gemuser wrote:
travelhound wrote:
The QF A333's are in the 16-17 year old age bracket and as such will be up for replacement in the very near future.

I suspect a 787-10 order will come with project sunrise decision, regardless on who wins the order.

We will just have to agree to disagree until the announcment. I still think the B78X size slot will be filled by the OEM who wins Project Sunrise.

Gemuser

I do not think project sunrise is just about a few long haul aircraft anymore. The PR of winning that order is worth something. I too believe the winner of project sunrise will also replace the A330s as well as A380s and last 747s. I see it as a mixed order of sizes for the appropriate roles.

So if the 778 wins project sunrise, we will see 787-10 flying for QF. If Airbus wins, it will probably be A359s replacing A330s.

This is a brutal contest IMHO.

Lightsaber


I believe the additional range and capacity of the A350 comes with additional cost. My understanding is the purchase price is greater than the 787-10, the fuel costs are higher and subsequently the operating costs using a range of trip profiles are subsequently higher. If we throw in the mix the additional cost of operating a mixed fleet the A350 would have to be exceptional to force QF to change tack on fleet strategy

With the advent of a NMA, we could see a situation where the market place fundamentally changes. Flying smaller aircraft into secondary markets could become the trend that dictates the size of aircraft QF will purchase.
 
Pcoder
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Re: Future operators of Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner

Mon Jul 08, 2019 10:56 am

travelhound wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Gemuser wrote:
We will just have to agree to disagree until the announcment. I still think the B78X size slot will be filled by the OEM who wins Project Sunrise.

Gemuser

I do not think project sunrise is just about a few long haul aircraft anymore. The PR of winning that order is worth something. I too believe the winner of project sunrise will also replace the A330s as well as A380s and last 747s. I see it as a mixed order of sizes for the appropriate roles.

So if the 778 wins project sunrise, we will see 787-10 flying for QF. If Airbus wins, it will probably be A359s replacing A330s.

This is a brutal contest IMHO.

Lightsaber


I believe the additional range and capacity of the A350 comes with additional cost. My understanding is the purchase price is greater than the 787-10, the fuel costs are higher and subsequently the operating costs using a range of trip profiles are subsequently higher. If we throw in the mix the additional cost of operating a mixed fleet the A350 would have to be exceptional to force QF to change tack on fleet strategy

With the advent of a NMA, we could see a situation where the market place fundamentally changes. Flying smaller aircraft into secondary markets could become the trend that dictates the size of aircraft QF will purchase.


We do have to remember that QF just purchased 36 A321XLRs, which would probably operate on routes similar to the 787-10. It doesn't mean that they won't order any 787-10s, but it won't be for a couple of years.

I will imagine the A330s will start being replace in the mid 2020s, but some of them will be replaced by the A321XLRs and some might be replaced by the Sunrise aircraft.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Future operators of Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner

Mon Jul 08, 2019 11:17 am

Pcoder wrote:
travelhound wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
I do not think project sunrise is just about a few long haul aircraft anymore. The PR of winning that order is worth something. I too believe the winner of project sunrise will also replace the A330s as well as A380s and last 747s. I see it as a mixed order of sizes for the appropriate roles.

So if the 778 wins project sunrise, we will see 787-10 flying for QF. If Airbus wins, it will probably be A359s replacing A330s.

This is a brutal contest IMHO.

Lightsaber


I believe the additional range and capacity of the A350 comes with additional cost. My understanding is the purchase price is greater than the 787-10, the fuel costs are higher and subsequently the operating costs using a range of trip profiles are subsequently higher. If we throw in the mix the additional cost of operating a mixed fleet the A350 would have to be exceptional to force QF to change tack on fleet strategy

With the advent of a NMA, we could see a situation where the market place fundamentally changes. Flying smaller aircraft into secondary markets could become the trend that dictates the size of aircraft QF will purchase.


We do have to remember that QF just purchased 36 A321XLRs, which would probably operate on routes similar to the 787-10. It doesn't mean that they won't order any 787-10s, but it won't be for a couple of years.

I will imagine the A330s will start being replace in the mid 2020s, but some of them will be replaced by the A321XLRs and some might be replaced by the Sunrise aircraft.


We don’t know yet weather QF will operate any A321s though, they may all go to JQ, AJ has talked up both the NMA and 78J however which doesn’t mean anything necessarily.

One thing the 359 offers over the 789 is additional lift over a slightly longer distance and also an extra 30-40 PAX depending on how they are configured. They could order 359s for existing 789 routes with the 789s reconfigured to replace the A330s into Asia, however the 78J would also be quite compelling I feel on the busier Asian routes to HKG/SIN/NRT/PVG/BKK with Project sunrise aircraft covering more premium routes like SYD-HKG/HND.

It’s also possible QF order 78J and 359 although they don’t have a huge wide body fleet when you take into account the A35K would be Project sunrise with probably 20 aircraft and the existing 789s at least 14.

Not sure where Boeing are at with the 778, if QF don’t order it I’m not convinced it will be built at least not for a while.
 
Pcoder
Posts: 121
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Re: Future operators of Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner

Mon Jul 08, 2019 12:45 pm

ZK-NBT wrote:
Pcoder wrote:
travelhound wrote:

I believe the additional range and capacity of the A350 comes with additional cost. My understanding is the purchase price is greater than the 787-10, the fuel costs are higher and subsequently the operating costs using a range of trip profiles are subsequently higher. If we throw in the mix the additional cost of operating a mixed fleet the A350 would have to be exceptional to force QF to change tack on fleet strategy

With the advent of a NMA, we could see a situation where the market place fundamentally changes. Flying smaller aircraft into secondary markets could become the trend that dictates the size of aircraft QF will purchase.


We do have to remember that QF just purchased 36 A321XLRs, which would probably operate on routes similar to the 787-10. It doesn't mean that they won't order any 787-10s, but it won't be for a couple of years.

I will imagine the A330s will start being replace in the mid 2020s, but some of them will be replaced by the A321XLRs and some might be replaced by the Sunrise aircraft.


We don’t know yet weather QF will operate any A321s though, they may all go to JQ, AJ has talked up both the NMA and 78J however which doesn’t mean anything necessarily.

One thing the 359 offers over the 789 is additional lift over a slightly longer distance and also an extra 30-40 PAX depending on how they are configured. They could order 359s for existing 789 routes with the 789s reconfigured to replace the A330s into Asia, however the 78J would also be quite compelling I feel on the busier Asian routes to HKG/SIN/NRT/PVG/BKK with Project sunrise aircraft covering more premium routes like SYD-HKG/HND.

It’s also possible QF order 78J and 359 although they don’t have a huge wide body fleet when you take into account the A35K would be Project sunrise with probably 20 aircraft and the existing 789s at least 14.

Not sure where Boeing are at with the 778, if QF don’t order it I’m not convinced it will be built at least not for a while.


It's very unlikely that all A321XLRs will go to Jetstar as 36 is way too many for them. You don't want to operate too many A321XLRs on routes where a A321neo would suffice. Airbus themselves rendered the order in Qantas colours and you'd imagine in the discussion about the order, they would have outlayed how they planned to use them.

One big reason why Qantas would want them is for the new Sydney West Airport. As it is curfew free, it will allow them to offer late night flights to Singapore and Hong Kong, without the need to fill up a widebody.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Future operators of Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner

Mon Jul 08, 2019 1:52 pm

tealnz wrote:
There is some further detail on the NZ decision now available from the transcript of the investor day presentation:
https://p-airnz.com/cms/assets/PDFs/airnz-2019-investor-day-transcript.pdf

What does this tell us about the NZ decision - and about the future -10?

- They were emphatic that the future growth outlook had eased and that they had therefore shifted to a more conservative capacity plan, with CapEx deferral and a focus on RASK improvement in existing markets

- They really like the numbers: "We think the operating economics are really outstanding... It gives us huge flexibility across crew, parts and maintenance. You think about pilots that can operate -9s and -10s. If you think about 95% of the components being common between our -9 and our -10 fleet, it's pretty special in terms of that".


I don't doubt anything here but we need to remember than NZ is a very small carrier. The economics of parts and pilot commonality play out very differently for a carrier with 150 widebodies instead of 30.
 
EddieDude
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Re: Future operators of Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner

Mon Jul 08, 2019 5:00 pm

If MEX were not so high above the sea level, AM would be a natural candidate. I could see the 78X flying from MEX to MAD, EZE, GRU pretty much all year long, plus the current daily 787 rotation to JFK. During summer, it would likely get nicely filled to AMS and CDG too.
Upcoming flights:
May: AM MEX-CUN 73H (Y), AM CUN-MEX 73W (Y).
August: KL MEX-AMS 74M (J), KQ AMS-NBO 788 (J).
 
inkjet7
Posts: 79
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Re: Future operators of Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner

Mon Jul 08, 2019 5:08 pm

EddieDude wrote:
If MEX were not so high above the sea level, AM would be a natural candidate. I could see the 78X flying from MEX to MAD, EZE, GRU pretty much all year long, plus the current daily 787 rotation to JFK. During summer, it would likely get nicely filled to AMS and CDG too.


MEX - AMS is about 5000 nautical miles so from a hot airport sitting at 7316 feet I'm not so sure in a 787-10.
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: Future operators of Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner

Mon Jul 08, 2019 5:37 pm

I'd be looking at Asian operators for heavy intra-Asian routes.

QF for services to China, Korea, Singapore, and Japan, and to also introduce the B789 concept to more routes with the B78X (along with a B789 top-up). The Project Sunrise aircraft will be something else.
KE for similar regional hauling on routes 8 hours or less.
LY for TLV to JFK, EWR, and BKK to offset loss of capacity of the B744 when the last ones leave the fleet.
CX for regional hauling in a role currently served by the B773 and the A333.

An intriguing example could be NH, which has a regionally-configured B78X fleet incoming, to replace the six oldest B77Ws and bump the newest ones into a 264-seat configuration, ordering 8 in an ultra-premium-heavy configuration (about 205-210 seats) for HND to FRA, HKG (select frequencies), JFK, and LHR, and NRT to JFK (these currently see B77Ws with just 212 seats -- just 112 Y, the sparsest B77W configuration in the world). NH could then maintain similar prices with lighter planes. (I know the range of the B78X is 6430 nmi at 330 passengers...but with NH's super-premium configuration, no restriction would be needed.)

If the B78X had been available sooner, many Chinese carriers wouldn't have gone all in on the 242t A333, and PR might have considered something other than its 240t A333s.
 
EddieDude
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Re: Future operators of Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner

Mon Jul 08, 2019 5:41 pm

inkjet7 wrote:
EddieDude wrote:
If MEX were not so high above the sea level, AM would be a natural candidate. I could see the 78X flying from MEX to MAD, EZE, GRU pretty much all year long, plus the current daily 787 rotation to JFK. During summer, it would likely get nicely filled to AMS and CDG too.


MEX - AMS is about 5000 nautical miles so from a hot airport sitting at 7316 feet I'm not so sure in a 787-10.

Which is why I started my post with "If MEX were not so high above the sea level...".
Upcoming flights:
May: AM MEX-CUN 73H (Y), AM CUN-MEX 73W (Y).
August: KL MEX-AMS 74M (J), KQ AMS-NBO 788 (J).
 
inkjet7
Posts: 79
Joined: Sat Jan 19, 2019 9:32 am

Re: Future operators of Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner

Tue Jul 09, 2019 6:51 pm

EddieDude wrote:
Which is why I started my post with "If MEX were not so high above the sea level...".

Oops must have missed that, sorry!
 
Dave05
Posts: 37
Joined: Sun Jan 28, 2018 2:09 pm

Re: Future operators of Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner

Wed Jul 10, 2019 4:18 am

Any airlineres that operate the A330-300 will upgrade to the 787-10.... Unless Airbus do another stretch to the A330-900 it will all go to the 787-10.....
 
DylanHarvey
Posts: 167
Joined: Thu Feb 01, 2018 5:45 pm

Re: Future operators of Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner

Wed Jul 10, 2019 4:28 am

Realistically any airline with the A350 as the 78J is a far superior product and should make Airbus cancel the production line.

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