User avatar
enilria
Topic Author
Posts: 9495
Joined: Fri Feb 22, 2008 7:15 pm

OAG Changes 7/7/2019: AA Adds AVL-LGA;B6;DL Adds IAH-JFK,Winter SLC-LHR

Sun Jul 07, 2019 2:50 pm

FAQ

AS OF JULY 2018 THERE ARE CHANGES TO THE FORMAT OF THIS REPORT...SEE BELOW

WHAT IS THIS REPORT?
This compares departures for sale THIS WEEK for the stated period versus what was for sale LAST WEEK...prior year departures are now shown in brackets e.g. [0].

THE SCHEDULES SHOWN HERE CHANGE AFTER YOU POST???
-To improve is to change; to be perfect is to change often---Winston Churchill. This is data the carriers filed at the point in time it was captured. It's changed since then. You are just going to have to live with it.

HOW DO I READ IT?
XXX-YYY DEC 4>5[4] JAN 4>5[4]
XXX Departure IATA code, YYY Arrival IATA code, Month, Average Departures/Day over the month for sale as of last week, Average Departures/Day over the month for sale as of this week, in brackets is the number of Average Departures/Day over the month that were scheduled one year earlier. So, it means that the listed airline changed the frequency between the two airports to add from 4 to 5 roundtrips in December and January. It also means that there were 4 roundtrips the prior year in each month. No other months were changed. I average two directions.

WHAT ABOUT CARRIERS THAT DON'T PUBLISH A SCHEDULE 9 MONTHS IN ADVANCE?
NEW CHANGE-Sometimes airlines do not load their schedules for the entire 330 day standard sales window. Southwest and many LCCs load their schedules for as little as 5 months into the future. When these flight are extended into a new sales month, it becomes a "schedule change". Previously, I have manually deleted these in many cases and replaced them with a Year-Over-Year compare. Effective immediately, this will now change. When a flight is loaded from 0 departures X departures, where X was the same the prior year, the record will not be shown. For example, if Delta loaded ATL-EGE MAR 0>1(1), it would not be shown because this additional flight does not represent a real year-over-year addition. Similarly, if B6 extended their schedule a record like this ATL-BOS JUL 0>4(4) would not be shown. It will be shown if the flight frequency changed from the prior year. So B6 ATL-BOS JUL 0>3(4) would be shown. If a partial month was loaded in a core schedule that became a full schedule month, those changes may be shown under this logic. For example, WN BNA-SEA 0.3>2(2). Because only a fraction of the month was previously loaded for sale, these changes will not be filtered out. I may, however, manually remove them to declutter.

HOW ARE THE DAILY DEPARTURES CALCULATED?
This report uses total operations for the month listed, divided over the days in the month. The following criteria are used to show a change: 1) The change must be at least 6 roundtrips per month with no exceptions, 2) changes of at least 6/week are always shown, 3) routes that are added or dropped are shown subject to the change minimum, and 4) in all other cases routes must change by 20% to be shown. For example, if a route changed from 21/week to 18/week it would not be shown because the change is -14.3%. This is done to filter minor changes that occur in large numbers.

WHAT ARE THE FRACTIONAL FLIGHTS?
Flights that do not operate every day of the month create fractional service. If the route has more than 2 daily flights, departures are rounded, but in cases of less than 2 departures per day a fraction is shown. For example, if a flight operates 4 times in April it will show 4/30=0.133=0.1. Also , a flight that only operates once per week may vary between 0.1 and 0.2 because a weekday may repeat either 4 or 5 times depending on the month.

THOSE FLIGHTS AREN'T DELTA, THEY ARE SKYWEST
This report only shows the marketing code. It is too complicated to show all the operators.

THE FREQUENCIES MAY HAVE CHANGED AS YOU SHOW, BUT THE SEATS DIDNT CHANGE BECAUSE OF EQUIPMENT SWAPS
Seats are not shown. That is a natural weakness of a frequency based report, but it provides something to discuss below.

THIS LOOKS LIKE AN ERROR?
The carriers file the schedules. They do make mistakes. Most of the mistakes I have seen are either related to code shares not being marked as "duplicates" or carriers filing flights with invalid data such as equipment codes that are not standard or overlapping schedule periods that see the same flight number in two places at once. These cause flights to not appear.

CHARTERS?
Lately charters have been showing up in the database. I have no idea if that will continue.

I marked some of the ones I thought were interesting with an "*".

3M ELH-FLL AUG 3>2[3]
3M FLL-MHH AUG 4>3[3]
3M MCO-MHH AUG 1.3>0.8[0.5]
3M MHH-PBI AUG 1.0>0.5[0.4]
3M MHH-TPA AUG 0.5>0.2[0.1]
3M TLH-TPA AUG 1.5>1.2[1.7]

4B ABQ-ALS AUG 0>0.9[0] SEP 0>0.9[0]
4B ABQ-CVN AUG 0>0.5[0] SEP 0>0.4[0] OCT 0>0.4[0] NOV 0>0.4[0] DEC 0>0.4[0]
4B ALS-CVN AUG 0.9>0[0] SEP 0.9>0[0]

*AA AVL-LGA JAN 0>0.3[0] FEB 0>0.3[0] MAR 0>0.3[0] APR 0>0.3[0]

AC FLL-YYZ SEP 2>1.1[2]
AC LAS-YEG SEP 0.9>0[0]
AC MCO-YYZ SEP 3>2[3]
AC PHX-YYC SEP 0.9>0[1.0]

AG AUA-MIA AUG 1.0>0.4[1.0] SEP 1.0>0.4[1.0] OCT 1.0>0.7[1.0]

AM ATL-GDL SEP 1.0>0.3[1.0] OCT 1.0>0.3[1.0]
AM BJX-LAX SEP 0.9>0.6[0.6] OCT 0.9>0.5[0.5] MAR 1.0>0.2[0.8]
AM DFW-MEX SEP 2>1.0[2] OCT 2>1.0[2] NOV 2>1.0[2] DEC 2>1.0[2] JAN 2>1.0[2] FEB 2>1.0[2] MAR 2>1.0[2] APR 2>1.0[2]

AS FLL-SEA NOV 1.3>1.9[1.4] DEC 1.5>2[1.4]
AS PSP-SFO NOV 3>4[3] DEC 3>4[3] JAN 3>4[3] FEB 3>4[3] MAR 4>5[4] APR 4>5[5]
AS SEA-SJC NOV 7>8[10] DEC 7>8[8] JAN 7>8[9] FEB 7>8[9] MAR 7>8[8] APR 7>8[8]
AS SEA-SMF AUG 6>7[6]

AV LAX-SAL NOV 4>3[3] DEC 4>3[3] JAN 4>3[2] FEB 4>3[3] MAR 4>3[3] APR 4>3[3]

*B6 BOG-MCO JAN 1.0>0.6[1.0] FEB 0.4>0[1.0]
*B6 BOS-CLT JAN 3>5[1.9] FEB 1.2>2[2.0]
*B6 BOS-IAH JAN 0.3>1.0[0] FEB 0>0.4[0]
*B6 CHS-DCA JAN 1.5>0[1.5] FEB 0.8>0[1.8]
*B6 CLT-JFK JAN 1.5>0[2] FEB 0.8>0[2]
*B6 DCA-JAX JAN 1.5>0[1.6] FEB 0.8>0[1.7]
B6 DCA-PBI JAN 1.2>1.9[1.1] FEB 0.4>0.8[1.4]
B6 DCA-RSW JAN 1.3>2[2] FEB 0.4>0.8[2]
*B6 IAH-JFK JAN 0.3>1.0[0] FEB 0>0.4[0]
B6 JFK-SAN SEP 2>3[2] OCT 2>3[2]
B6 JFK-SJO JAN 0.1>0.4[0]
B6 MCO-PAP FEB 0>0.2[0.9]
B6 MCO-SYR JAN 0.7>1.0[1.0]

BW GEO-JFK NOV 1.1>1.4[1.1] DEC 1.2>1.5[1.4] JAN 1.1>1.4[1.5] FEB 1.1>1.4[1.3] MAR 1.2>1.4[1.3]

CST HTO-NYS AUG 0>0.9[0] SEP 0>0.9[0] OCT 0>0.7[0]
CST NYS-PVC AUG 0>0.7[0] SEP 0>0.6[0] OCT 0>0.5[0]

CZ CAN-JFK NOV 1.4>1.0[1.3] FEB 1.4>1.0[1.3] MAR 1.4>1.0[1.4]
CZ CAN-LAX NOV 1.4>1.0[1.3] FEB 1.4>1.0[1.4] MAR 1.4>1.0[1.3]

DL ATL-PUJ OCT 2>1.7[2]
DL CVG-JFK JAN 1.0>1.8[1.0] FEB 1.0>2[1.0] MAR 1.0>2[1.0] APR 1.0>2[1.0]
DL DTW-JFK FEB 4>5[4] MAR 4>5[4] APR 4>5[4]
*DL DTW-LHR JAN 2>1.0[1.5] FEB 2>1.0[1.0] MAR 2>1.1[1.6]
DL DTW-MEX AUG 1.4>2[1.0]
DL FCA-SLC MAR 3>4[3]
DL HRL-MSP APR 1.0>0[0]
B6 retaliation
*DL IAH-JFK OCT 0>0.3[0] NOV 0>2[0] DEC 0>2[0] JAN 0>2[0] FEB 0>2[0] MAR 0>2[0] APR 0>2[0]
DL IAH-MSP MAR 6>5[6]
DL IND-RDU DEC 1.1>1.5[1.1]
*DL LHR-SLC JAN 0>0.9[0] FEB 0>0.9[0] MAR 0.1>1.0[0]
DL MSP-PUJ APR 1.0>0.1[0.2]
DL MSY-RDU DEC 0.2>0.6[0] JAN 0.2>0.4[0]
DL NRT-PDX OCT 0.9>0.7[0.7]
DL SJD-SLC APR 1.0>0.6[0.6]

FI KEF-MSP NOV 1.0>0.7[0.6] DEC 0.9>0.6[0.5]
*FI KEF-TPA SEP 0.2>0[0.3] OCT 0.4>0[0.5] NOV 0.4>0[0.4] DEC 0.5>0[0.5] JAN 0.4>0[0.3] FEB 0.4>0[0.2] MAR 0.4>0[0.4] APR 0.4>0[0.4]

G4 CVG-PIE OCT 1.0>1.2[1.1]
G4 PIE-USA OCT 1.0>1.2[0.8]

J5 AGN-JNU AUG 2>3[0.3] NOV 0.5>1.0[1.0] DEC 0.5>1.0[1.0]
J5 AGN-TKE NOV 0.5>1.0[1.0] DEC 0.5>1.0[1.0]
J5 ELV-JNU AUG 2>1.7[0.6] SEP 0.4>0.2[0.2] OCT 0.3>0[0.3] NOV 0.3>0[0.3] DEC 0.3>0[0.3]
J5 EXI-JNU OCT 0.2>0.4[0.2] NOV 0.1>0.4[0.1] DEC 0.1>0.3[0.1]
J5 JNU-KAE SEP 1.2>0.8[1.0]
J5 JNU-KLW AUG 2>0[0] SEP 0.4>0[0.4]
J5 JNU-PEC AUG 2>1.7[0.6] SEP 0.9>0.2[0.2] OCT 0.9>0[0.9] NOV 0.8>0.1[0.8]
J5 JNU-SGY AUG 7>6[0] SEP 5>4[0] OCT 4>2[3] NOV 3>1.9[3]
J5 JNU-SIT AUG 3>2[1.5] SEP 2>1.2[1.5] OCT 2>1.3[3] NOV 1.9>1.5[3] DEC 1.9>1.5[1.9]
J5 JNU-TKE AUG 3>0.4[0.3]
J5 JNU-YXY AUG 0>0.6[0] SEP 0>0.4[0]
J5 KAE-SIT SEP 1.0>0.6[0]
J5 KLW-SIT AUG 2>1.0[0.5] SEP 1.2>0.6[0.1] OCT 1.0>0.5[1.0] NOV 1.0>0.5[1.0] DEC 1.0>0.5[1.0]

JJ FOR-MIA NOV 0.7>0.4[0.4] DEC 0.7>0.5[0.4] JAN 0.7>0.4[0.5] FEB 0.7>0.4[0.4] MAR 0.7>0.5[0.5]

LA BEL-MIA NOV 0>0.3[0] DEC 0>0.3[0] JAN 0>0.3[0] FEB 0>0.3[0] MAR 0>0.3[0] APR 0>0.3[0]
LA FOR-MIA NOV 0>0.7[0] DEC 0>0.7[0] JAN 0>0.7[0] FEB 0>0.7[0] MAR 0>0.7[0] APR 0>0.7[0]
LA GRU-JFK NOV 0>1.0[0] DEC 0>1.0[0] JAN 0>1.0[0] FEB 0>1.0[0] MAR 0>1.0[0] APR 0>1.0[0]
LA GRU-MCO NOV 0>1.0[0] DEC 0>1.0[0] JAN 0>1.0[0] FEB 0>1.0[0] MAR 0>1.0[0] APR 0>1.0[0]
LA GRU-MIA OCT 0>0.3[0] NOV 0>2.0[0] DEC 0>2[0] JAN 0>2[0] FEB 0>2[0] MAR 0>2[0] APR 0>2[0]

LF BKW-CLT NOV 0.9>1.6[0] DEC 0>1.6[1.4] FEB 0>1.0[1.7]
LF BKW-PKB NOV 0.9>1.6[0] DEC 0>1.6[1.4] FEB 0>1.0[1.7]
LF BNA-TUP NOV 1.3>3[4] DEC 0>2[4] JAN 0>3[4] FEB 0>1.5[4]
LF BWI-MCN SEP 0.9>1.7[1.7] NOV 0>0.9[1.7]
LF STL-TBN NOV 0.9>1.6[0] DEC 0>0.8[0]

*OZ ICN-JFK DEC 1.0>2[1.0] JAN 1.0>2[1.0] FEB 1.0>2[1.0] MAR 1.0>1.9[1.0]

UA DEN-HDN MAR 3>4[3]
UA EGE-LAX DEC 0>0.4[0.1]
UA FAT-SFO OCT 3>4[4]
UA FCA-ORD FEB 0>0.2[0.1] MAR 0>0.3[0.2]
*UA GUC-IAH JAN 0.2>1.0[0.2] FEB 0>1.0[0.1] MAR 0>0.9[0.2]
UA MMH-SFO APR 0.1>0.4[0]
UA OTH-SFO NOV 0.9>0.6[1.0] JAN 1.0>0.7[1.0] FEB 1.0>0.7[1.0] MAR 1.0>0.7[1.0]

*WO SAN-YEG OCT 0>0.4[0] NOV 0>0.4[0] DEC 0>0.5[0] JAN 0>0.4[0] FEB 0>0.4[0] MAR 0>0.5[0] APR 0>0.3[0]
*WO SAN-YXX OCT 0>0.3[0] NOV 0>0.3[0] DEC 0>0.3[0] JAN 0>0.3[0] FEB 0>0.4[0] MAR 0>0.5[0] APR 0>0.2[0]

X4 JNU-YXY AUG 0.4>0[0.4] SEP 0.3>0[0.2]
 
NolaMD88fan
Posts: 1299
Joined: Wed Oct 01, 2014 4:07 am

Re: OAG Changes 7/7/2019: AA Adds AVL-LGA;B6;DL Adds IAH-JFK,Winter SLC-LHR

Sun Jul 07, 2019 2:55 pm

Good to see that DL seems pleased enough by the performance of MSY-RDU to increase service over the winter months.
 
Ishrion
Posts: 917
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 6:17 am

Re: OAG Changes 7/7/2019: AA Adds AVL-LGA;B6;DL Adds IAH-JFK,Winter SLC-LHR

Sun Jul 07, 2019 3:05 pm

I thought AA already did LGA-AVL? Seasonal extension I’m assuming.
 
Aliqiout
Posts: 281
Joined: Wed Oct 05, 2016 6:10 pm

Re: OAG Changes 7/7/2019: AA Adds AVL-LGA;B6;DL Adds IAH-JFK,Winter SLC-LHR

Sun Jul 07, 2019 3:09 pm

The new 4B routing makes more sense, but only 0.5/week ?

It's good to see an AS increase in SFO, but notably it is on a pre merger AS route.
 
User avatar
AVLAirlineFreq
Posts: 1301
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2008 1:31 am

Re: OAG Changes 7/7/2019: AA Adds AVL-LGA;B6;DL Adds IAH-JFK,Winter SLC-LHR

Sun Jul 07, 2019 3:11 pm

Ishrion wrote:
I thought AA already did LGA-AVL? Seasonal extension I’m assuming.


Started this year as Saturday-only seasonal.
 
WeatherPilot
Posts: 464
Joined: Sun Jun 25, 2017 1:51 am

Re: OAG Changes 7/7/2019: AA Adds AVL-LGA;B6;DL Adds IAH-JFK,Winter SLC-LHR

Sun Jul 07, 2019 3:22 pm

enilria wrote:
B6 MCO-SYR JAN 0.7>1.0[1.0]


If you look through their booking system the route is there for all the months they previously decided to drop it from. Make up your mind B6. Though, I'm happy they brought the route back. I was a little perplexed when they decided to end it. Maybe they weren't sure if they would have a plane to run it.

It also appears that B6 will still do double daily BUF-MCO. This is where I initially thought the SYR-MCO plane was shifted to for the months it was discountinued out of SYR. So B6 found a plane somewhere to either bring SYR-MCO back or keep their extra BUF-MCO run.
 
SgtBarone
Posts: 231
Joined: Mon Aug 28, 2017 6:20 pm

Re: OAG Changes 7/7/2019: AA Adds AVL-LGA;B6;DL Adds IAH-JFK,Winter SLC-LHR

Sun Jul 07, 2019 4:05 pm

Thanks as always, enilria!
AGP ATL BCN BNA BOS CLE CLT DCA DEN FLG FLL FRA IAD IAH JAX LAX LGB MAD MCI MDW MKE MUC PHX RDU RSW SEA SJU SLC SNA TPA
 
tphuang
Posts: 3001
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: OAG Changes 7/7/2019: AA Adds AVL-LGA;B6;DL Adds IAH-JFK,Winter SLC-LHR

Sun Jul 07, 2019 4:32 pm

Thanks enilria
enilria wrote:
AS FLL-SEA NOV 1.3>1.9[1.4] DEC 1.5>2[1.4]

This seems to be a goldmine for them. B6 really is dragging their feet on not adding this route.

*B6 CHS-DCA JAN 1.5>0[1.5] FEB 0.8>0[1.8]
*B6 DCA-JAX JAN 1.5>0[1.6] FEB 0.8>0[1.7]
B6 DCA-PBI JAN 1.2>1.9[1.1] FEB 0.4>0.8[1.4]
B6 DCA-RSW JAN 1.3>2[2] FEB 0.4>0.8[2]

this still doesn't represent full reallocation of DCA slots. Not sure what's going on here.

B6 JFK-SAN SEP 2>3[2] OCT 2>3[2]

The extra flight is a regular A320. I have to think this is due to AA's max shutdown.

CZ CAN-JFK NOV 1.4>1.0[1.3] FEB 1.4>1.0[1.3] MAR 1.4>1.0[1.4]
CZ CAN-LAX NOV 1.4>1.0[1.3] FEB 1.4>1.0[1.4] MAR 1.4>1.0[1.3]

That's a lot of capacity cut here. Are they going to shift this to other airports?
B6 retaliation
*DL IAH-JFK OCT 0>0.3[0] NOV 0>2[0] DEC 0>2[0] JAN 0>2[0] FEB 0>2[0] MAR 0>2[0] APR 0>2[0]

lol, DL never misses a chance at B6 retaliation even if they are a secondary player in that market.
 
AirFiero
Posts: 1282
Joined: Wed Aug 28, 2013 11:43 pm

Re: OAG Changes 7/7/2019: AA Adds AVL-LGA;B6;DL Adds IAH-JFK,Winter SLC-LHR

Sun Jul 07, 2019 4:50 pm

tphuang wrote:
Thanks enilria
enilria wrote:
AS FLL-SEA NOV 1.3>1.9[1.4] DEC 1.5>2[1.4]

This seems to be a goldmine for them. B6 really is dragging their feet on not adding this route.


Even more interesting since AS doesn’t have any connections at the FLL end like B6.

I wonder if either (more likely B6, I’d think) would fly SJC-FLL. Any idea what the is PDEW on that pair?
 
Aliqiout
Posts: 281
Joined: Wed Oct 05, 2016 6:10 pm

Re: OAG Changes 7/7/2019: AA Adds AVL-LGA;B6;DL Adds IAH-JFK,Winter SLC-LHR

Sun Jul 07, 2019 4:56 pm

AirFiero wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Thanks enilria
enilria wrote:
AS FLL-SEA NOV 1.3>1.9[1.4] DEC 1.5>2[1.4]

This seems to be a goldmine for them. B6 really is dragging their feet on not adding this route.


Even more interesting since AS doesn’t have any connections at the FLL end like B6.

I wonder if either (more likely B6, I’d think) would fly SJC-FLL. Any idea what the is PDEW on that pair?

But AS and their partners have more connections available in SEA than B6 does in FLL.
 
Sightseer
Posts: 928
Joined: Mon Jan 12, 2015 6:04 am

Re: OAG Changes 7/7/2019: AA Adds AVL-LGA;B6;DL Adds IAH-JFK,Winter SLC-LHR

Sun Jul 07, 2019 5:12 pm

Thanks Enilria!
tphuang wrote:
B6 retaliation
*DL IAH-JFK OCT 0>0.3[0] NOV 0>2[0] DEC 0>2[0] JAN 0>2[0] FEB 0>2[0] MAR 0>2[0] APR 0>2[0]

lol, DL never misses a chance at B6 retaliation even if they are a secondary player in that market.

I'm guessing the alleged "retaliation" is for B6 leaving HOU for IAH? If it is, that surprises me since I wouldn't expect B6 JFK-IAH to have materially more of an impact than JFK-HOU did on DL's LGA-IAH.
 
AirFiero
Posts: 1282
Joined: Wed Aug 28, 2013 11:43 pm

Re: OAG Changes 7/7/2019: AA Adds AVL-LGA;B6;DL Adds IAH-JFK,Winter SLC-LHR

Sun Jul 07, 2019 5:19 pm

Aliqiout wrote:
AirFiero wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Thanks enilria

This seems to be a goldmine for them. B6 really is dragging their feet on not adding this route.


Even more interesting since AS doesn’t have any connections at the FLL end like B6.

I wonder if either (more likely B6, I’d think) would fly SJC-FLL. Any idea what the is PDEW on that pair?

But AS and their partners have more connections available in SEA than B6 does in FLL.


Oh, crap. I misread this as SFO-FLL, mixing it up with SFO-PSP. :white:
 
DDR
Posts: 1591
Joined: Sat Sep 28, 2013 11:09 pm

Re: OAG Changes 7/7/2019: AA Adds AVL-LGA;B6;DL Adds IAH-JFK,Winter SLC-LHR

Sun Jul 07, 2019 5:28 pm

Including UA to EWR, JB to JFK, and now DL to JFK, I wonder if there is too much capacity?
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 5429
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: OAG Changes 7/7/2019: AA Adds AVL-LGA;B6;DL Adds IAH-JFK,Winter SLC-LHR

Sun Jul 07, 2019 5:36 pm

One B6 and 2x DL on JFK-IAH aren't going to represent too much capacity on NYC-Houston. Looking at an October Monday there's 10x UA and 1X NK. It may be more competition than UA wants on a hub-to-hub pair but that can mean more selling opportunities xxx-EWR-IAH and xxx-IAH-EWR.
 
kavok
Posts: 557
Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 10:12 pm

Re: OAG Changes 7/7/2019: AA Adds AVL-LGA;B6;DL Adds IAH-JFK,Winter SLC-LHR

Sun Jul 07, 2019 5:37 pm

So essentially DL is shifting one of their LHR slots for winter from DTW (x2 to x1) to SLC (x0 to x1). Maybe capture some ski traffic plus Mountain West connections?

It is probably worth a try. DTW-LHR seems to be one of those routes where the demand is a little too big for 1 daily, but not quite big enough for 2 daily, especially in the winter months.
 
Luke1994
Posts: 24
Joined: Thu May 25, 2017 11:40 pm

Re: OAG Changes 7/7/2019: AA Adds AVL-LGA;B6;DL Adds IAH-JFK,Winter SLC-LHR

Sun Jul 07, 2019 6:12 pm

kavok wrote:
So essentially DL is shifting one of their LHR slots for winter from DTW (x2 to x1) to SLC (x0 to x1). Maybe capture some ski traffic plus Mountain West connections?

It is probably worth a try. DTW-LHR seems to be one of those routes where the demand is a little too big for 1 daily, but not quite big enough for 2 daily, especially in the winter months.


DL’s sky-high fares completely kill basically any chance of DTW-LHR growing. They’re routinely $300-500 more than AA and UA are for nonstops from their respective Eastern US hubs (ORD, JFK, PHL, EWR, etc.).

There is absolutely room for growth, but DL artificially suppresses it. Smart business, sure, but carriers like WOW made it clear that the DTW-Europe market isn’t as saturated as some in here believe.
CMEL student for now...
 
Aliqiout
Posts: 281
Joined: Wed Oct 05, 2016 6:10 pm

Re: OAG Changes 7/7/2019: AA Adds AVL-LGA;B6;DL Adds IAH-JFK,Winter SLC-LHR

Sun Jul 07, 2019 6:48 pm

Luke1994 wrote:
kavok wrote:
So essentially DL is shifting one of their LHR slots for winter from DTW (x2 to x1) to SLC (x0 to x1). Maybe capture some ski traffic plus Mountain West connections?

It is probably worth a try. DTW-LHR seems to be one of those routes where the demand is a little too big for 1 daily, but not quite big enough for 2 daily, especially in the winter months.


DL’s sky-high fares completely kill basically any chance of DTW-LHR growing. They’re routinely $300-500 more than AA and UA are for nonstops from their respective Eastern US hubs (ORD, JFK, PHL, EWR, etc.).

There is absolutely room for growth, but DL artificially suppresses it. Smart business, sure, but carriers like WOW made it clear that the DTW-Europe market isn’t as saturated as some in here believe.

But its more compmocarwd than that. For instance XXX-DTW-LHR is often a lot less than XXX-ORD-LHR, XXX-PHL-LHR ect.
 
777Mech
Posts: 754
Joined: Sun Sep 11, 2016 10:54 pm

Re: OAG Changes 7/7/2019: AA Adds AVL-LGA;B6;DL Adds IAH-JFK,Winter SLC-LHR

Sun Jul 07, 2019 7:55 pm

Luke1994 wrote:
kavok wrote:
So essentially DL is shifting one of their LHR slots for winter from DTW (x2 to x1) to SLC (x0 to x1). Maybe capture some ski traffic plus Mountain West connections?

It is probably worth a try. DTW-LHR seems to be one of those routes where the demand is a little too big for 1 daily, but not quite big enough for 2 daily, especially in the winter months.


DL’s sky-high fares completely kill basically any chance of DTW-LHR growing. They’re routinely $300-500 more than AA and UA are for nonstops from their respective Eastern US hubs (ORD, JFK, PHL, EWR, etc.).

There is absolutely room for growth, but DL artificially suppresses it. Smart business, sure, but carriers like WOW made it clear that the DTW-Europe market isn’t as saturated as some in here believe.


Because we see where WOW is today.

SLC is a better option than DTW, I think it's going to provide better connectivity for the people out west, and SLC is a nicer place to connect to.
 
Rdh3e
Posts: 3518
Joined: Wed Mar 30, 2011 2:09 pm

Re: OAG Changes 7/7/2019: AA Adds AVL-LGA;B6;DL Adds IAH-JFK,Winter SLC-LHR

Sun Jul 07, 2019 8:00 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
One B6 and 2x DL on JFK-IAH aren't going to represent too much capacity on NYC-Houston. Looking at an October Monday there's 10x UA and 1X NK. It may be more competition than UA wants on a hub-to-hub pair but that can mean more selling opportunities xxx-EWR-IAH and xxx-IAH-EWR.

Overally, it is quite a bit of competition on Houston-NYC:

October -
UA - 18X (10 IAH-EWR, 8 IAH-LGA)
DL - 6X (5 IAH-LGA, 1 IAH-JFK)
WN - 3X (HOU-LGA)
NK - 1X (IAH-EWR)
B6 - 1X (JFK)
 
User avatar
Midwestindy
Posts: 4015
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: OAG Changes 7/7/2019: AA Adds AVL-LGA;B6;DL Adds IAH-JFK,Winter SLC-LHR

Sun Jul 07, 2019 8:09 pm

Sightseer wrote:
Thanks Enilria!
tphuang wrote:
B6 retaliation
*DL IAH-JFK OCT 0>0.3[0] NOV 0>2[0] DEC 0>2[0] JAN 0>2[0] FEB 0>2[0] MAR 0>2[0] APR 0>2[0]

lol, DL never misses a chance at B6 retaliation even if they are a secondary player in that market.

I'm guessing the alleged "retaliation" is for B6 leaving HOU for IAH? If it is, that surprises me since I wouldn't expect B6 JFK-IAH to have materially more of an impact than JFK-HOU did on DL's LGA-IAH.


I honestly don't think this is entirely "retaliation," the timing of the move seems obvious. But, it has been a route that DL had been eyeing for a while.
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
TW870
Posts: 988
Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2013 2:01 am

Re: OAG Changes 7/7/2019: AA Adds AVL-LGA;B6;DL Adds IAH-JFK,Winter SLC-LHR

Sun Jul 07, 2019 9:05 pm

Rdh3e wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
One B6 and 2x DL on JFK-IAH aren't going to represent too much capacity on NYC-Houston. Looking at an October Monday there's 10x UA and 1X NK. It may be more competition than UA wants on a hub-to-hub pair but that can mean more selling opportunities xxx-EWR-IAH and xxx-IAH-EWR.

Overally, it is quite a bit of competition on Houston-NYC:

October -
UA - 18X (10 IAH-EWR, 8 IAH-LGA)
DL - 6X (5 IAH-LGA, 1 IAH-JFK)
WN - 3X (HOU-LGA)
NK - 1X (IAH-EWR)
B6 - 1X (JFK)


Delta departures out of IAH are roughly at Noon and 6:30pm, both on the A220-100. This is a new route that the A220 is perfect for given its favorable fuel burn on longer segments.

I would not be surprised if we saw both IAH-LAX and DFW-SEA appear as the A220 is phased into the fleet. Delta has been reticent to operate these routes given the challenging pricing environment and competition, but the 220's economics may change that.
 
afcjets
Posts: 2837
Joined: Thu Jan 01, 2015 6:20 pm

Re: OAG Changes 7/7/2019: AA Adds AVL-LGA;B6;DL Adds IAH-JFK,Winter SLC-LHR

Sun Jul 07, 2019 9:20 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Sightseer wrote:
Thanks Enilria!
tphuang wrote:
B6 retaliation
*DL IAH-JFK OCT 0>0.3[0] NOV 0>2[0] DEC 0>2[0] JAN 0>2[0] FEB 0>2[0] MAR 0>2[0] APR 0>2[0]

lol, DL never misses a chance at B6 retaliation even if they are a secondary player in that market.

I'm guessing the alleged "retaliation" is for B6 leaving HOU for IAH? If it is, that surprises me since I wouldn't expect B6 JFK-IAH to have materially more of an impact than JFK-HOU did on DL's LGA-IAH.


I honestly don't think this is entirely "retaliation," the timing of the move seems obvious. But, it has been a route that DL had been eyeing for a while.


Even Pan Am flew IAH-JFK. I never knew DL got rid of it.
 
IAHWorldflyer
Posts: 774
Joined: Mon Feb 06, 2012 7:22 pm

Re: OAG Changes 7/7/2019: AA Adds AVL-LGA;B6;DL Adds IAH-JFK,Winter SLC-LHR

Sun Jul 07, 2019 9:27 pm

I see this as more about DL offering up Euro connections available at JFK to their Houston area customers. JFK does have a few unique options, especially in winter, that are not replicated at ATL. A noon departure from IAH should sync into the Euro departure bank nicely.
 
User avatar
LAX772LR
Posts: 12322
Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:06 pm

Re: OAG Changes 7/7/2019: AA Adds AVL-LGA;B6;DL Adds IAH-JFK,Winter SLC-LHR

Sun Jul 07, 2019 9:38 pm

Luke1994 wrote:
DL’s sky-high fares completely kill basically any chance of DTW-LHR growing. They’re routinely $300-500 more than AA and UA are for nonstops from their respective Eastern US hubs (ORD, JFK, PHL, EWR, etc.).

There is absolutely room for growth, but DL artificially suppresses it. Smart business, sure, but carriers like WOW made it clear that the DTW-Europe market isn’t as saturated as some in here believe.

The whole point of offering a nonstop is the ability to garner a premium... it's the one thing that people in *all* classes of service will, by their actions, pay a premium for.

That said, as mentioned by others, the price for pax to connect through DTW for LHR is competitive with proximate hubs.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
wedgetail737
Posts: 4975
Joined: Mon Aug 04, 2003 8:44 am

Re: OAG Changes 7/7/2019: AA Adds AVL-LGA;B6;DL Adds IAH-JFK,Winter SLC-LHR

Sun Jul 07, 2019 10:05 pm

AirFiero wrote:
Aliqiout wrote:
AirFiero wrote:

Even more interesting since AS doesn’t have any connections at the FLL end like B6.

I wonder if either (more likely B6, I’d think) would fly SJC-FLL. Any idea what the is PDEW on that pair?

But AS and their partners have more connections available in SEA than B6 does in FLL.


Oh, crap. I misread this as SFO-FLL, mixing it up with SFO-PSP. :white:


As far as AS is concerned, I think it's more for Cruise traffic, than any connections. The few times I've flown the route, most of the pax were catching cruises.
 
User avatar
enilria
Topic Author
Posts: 9495
Joined: Fri Feb 22, 2008 7:15 pm

Re: OAG Changes 7/7/2019: AA Adds AVL-LGA;B6;DL Adds IAH-JFK,Winter SLC-LHR

Sun Jul 07, 2019 10:22 pm

IAHWorldflyer wrote:
I see this as more about DL offering up Euro connections available at JFK to their Houston area customers. JFK does have a few unique options, especially in winter, that are not replicated at ATL. A noon departure from IAH should sync into the Euro departure bank nicely.

It it’s a week after B6 added the same route, lol. That’s obviously not a coincidence.
Sightseer wrote:
Thanks Enilria!
tphuang wrote:
B6 retaliation
*DL IAH-JFK OCT 0>0.3[0] NOV 0>2[0] DEC 0>2[0] JAN 0>2[0] FEB 0>2[0] MAR 0>2[0] APR 0>2[0]

lol, DL never misses a chance at B6 retaliation even if they are a secondary player in that market.

I'm guessing the alleged "retaliation" is for B6 leaving HOU for IAH? If it is, that surprises me since I wouldn't expect B6 JFK-IAH to have materially more of an impact than JFK-HOU did on DL's LGA-IAH.

As I said, it’s a week after B6 added it. Also, I believe it’s fairly clear B6 moved to take a bigger bite of the high yield business market that HOU doesn’t have. DL cares more about that type of customer than pretty much anybody and isn’t going to allow B6 to have that advantage in NYC.
 
DCAfan
Posts: 120
Joined: Fri Mar 21, 2014 8:22 pm

Re: OAG Changes 7/7/2019: AA Adds AVL-LGA;B6;DL Adds IAH-JFK,Winter SLC-LHR

Sun Jul 07, 2019 11:14 pm

tphuang wrote:
Thanks enilria
enilria wrote:
AS FLL-SEA NOV 1.3>1.9[1.4] DEC 1.5>2[1.4]

This seems to be a goldmine for them. B6 really is dragging their feet on not adding this route.

*B6 CHS-DCA JAN 1.5>0[1.5] FEB 0.8>0[1.8]
*B6 DCA-JAX JAN 1.5>0[1.6] FEB 0.8>0[1.7]
B6 DCA-PBI JAN 1.2>1.9[1.1] FEB 0.4>0.8[1.4]
B6 DCA-RSW JAN 1.3>2[2] FEB 0.4>0.8[2]

this still doesn't represent full reallocation of DCA slots. Not sure what's going on here.

B6 JFK-SAN SEP 2>3[2] OCT 2>3[2]

The extra flight is a regular A320. I have to think this is due to AA's max shutdown.

CZ CAN-JFK NOV 1.4>1.0[1.3] FEB 1.4>1.0[1.3] MAR 1.4>1.0[1.4]
CZ CAN-LAX NOV 1.4>1.0[1.3] FEB 1.4>1.0[1.4] MAR 1.4>1.0[1.3]

That's a lot of capacity cut here. Are they going to shift this to other airports?
B6 retaliation
*DL IAH-JFK OCT 0>0.3[0] NOV 0>2[0] DEC 0>2[0] JAN 0>2[0] FEB 0>2[0] MAR 0>2[0] APR 0>2[0]

lol, DL never misses a chance at B6 retaliation even if they are a secondary player in that market.


With respect to DCA, I checked JetBlue's schedule for February 10th, and found the following regarding daily departures per market: BOS - 15, FLL - 6, MCO - 4, PBI - 2, RSW - 2, and SJU - 1. This accounts for all 30 slot pairs that B6 has at DCA.
 
KD5MDK
Posts: 802
Joined: Wed Mar 13, 2013 4:05 am

Re: OAG Changes 7/7/2019: AA Adds AVL-LGA;B6;DL Adds IAH-JFK,Winter SLC-LHR

Sun Jul 07, 2019 11:49 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
Luke1994 wrote:
DL’s sky-high fares completely kill basically any chance of DTW-LHR growing. They’re routinely $300-500 more than AA and UA are for nonstops from their respective Eastern US hubs (ORD, JFK, PHL, EWR, etc.).

There is absolutely room for growth, but DL artificially suppresses it. Smart business, sure, but carriers like WOW made it clear that the DTW-Europe market isn’t as saturated as some in here believe.

The whole point of offering a nonstop is the ability to garner a premium... it's the one thing that people in *all* classes of service will, by their actions, pay a premium for.

That said, as mentioned by others, the price for pax to connect through DTW for LHR is competitive with proximate hubs.


That's self-evident, but how much should be premium be compared to similar non-stop markets?
If premium was all that was needed, any TATL route with more than 1x daily would just be reducing their own premium potential.
 
TTailedTiger
Posts: 1265
Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2018 5:19 am

Re: OAG Changes 7/7/2019: AA Adds AVL-LGA;B6;DL Adds IAH-JFK,Winter SLC-LHR

Mon Jul 08, 2019 12:10 am

Where is AA getting these LGA slots for new service?
 
ASFlyer
Posts: 1643
Joined: Sat May 28, 2005 1:25 pm

Re: OAG Changes 7/7/2019: AA Adds AVL-LGA;B6;DL Adds IAH-JFK,Winter SLC-LHR

Mon Jul 08, 2019 12:49 am

777Mech wrote:
SLC is a better option than DTW, I think it's going to provide better connectivity for the people out west, and SLC is a nicer place to connect to.


I suppose it's all about personal preference but as far as U.S. airports go, DTW is BY FAR a much nicer airport than almost any other large connecting hub airport - and definitely nicer than SLC. Just my opinion, but I can't imagine you'd find a number of people that thought SLC was a nicer airport to connect in. SLC will definitely offer some connection options that are not currently available through any other airport - but I think the majority are served via MSP.
 
CIDFlyer
Posts: 2103
Joined: Wed Apr 13, 2005 7:19 am

Re: OAG Changes 7/7/2019: AA Adds AVL-LGA;B6;DL Adds IAH-JFK,Winter SLC-LHR

Mon Jul 08, 2019 1:02 am

DTW is probably one of the nicest places to connect through, especially in the Midwest
 
lavalampluva
Posts: 1363
Joined: Tue Jun 24, 2014 7:33 pm

Re: OAG Changes 7/7/2019: AA Adds AVL-LGA;B6;DL Adds IAH-JFK,Winter SLC-LHR

Mon Jul 08, 2019 1:07 am

777Mech wrote:
Luke1994 wrote:
kavok wrote:
So essentially DL is shifting one of their LHR slots for winter from DTW (x2 to x1) to SLC (x0 to x1). Maybe capture some ski traffic plus Mountain West connections?

It is probably worth a try. DTW-LHR seems to be one of those routes where the demand is a little too big for 1 daily, but not quite big enough for 2 daily, especially in the winter months.


DL’s sky-high fares completely kill basically any chance of DTW-LHR growing. They’re routinely $300-500 more than AA and UA are for nonstops from their respective Eastern US hubs (ORD, JFK, PHL, EWR, etc.).

There is absolutely room for growth, but DL artificially suppresses it. Smart business, sure, but carriers like WOW made it clear that the DTW-Europe market isn’t as saturated as some in here believe.


Because we see where WOW is today.

SLC is a better option than DTW, I think it's going to provide better connectivity for the people out west, and SLC is a nicer place to connect to.

FI isn’t going to add anything new until the MAX issue is resolved. I can’t see DL opening up a route from DTW or SLC until next spring/summer 2020.
Remind me to send a thank you note to Mr. Boeing.
 
ctrabs0114
Posts: 889
Joined: Mon Oct 09, 2017 8:09 am

Re: OAG Changes 7/7/2019: AA Adds AVL-LGA;B6;DL Adds IAH-JFK,Winter SLC-LHR

Mon Jul 08, 2019 4:06 am

tphuang wrote:
enilria wrote:
B6 retaliation
*DL IAH-JFK OCT 0>0.3[0] NOV 0>2[0] DEC 0>2[0] JAN 0>2[0] FEB 0>2[0] MAR 0>2[0] APR 0>2[0]

lol, DL never misses a chance at B6 retaliation even if they are a secondary player in that market.


Per their website, DL is using the A220 on JFK-IAH, which has been their strategy on other hub-to-spoke routes to other airline hubs (DFW to JFK/DTW/SLC). That, combined with going head-to-head with B6, could be a chance for DL to grow at IAH, especially where you have 2x on DL compared to 1x on B6.

Your move, B6...
2019: DAL, MCI, PHX, LAS, DFW, SAT, ORD, SLC, SEA, DTW; B73G (WN x3), B738 (WN, AA, DL), A20N (NK), MD83 (AA), B788 (AA x2), CS1 (DL), 739 (DL), 712 (DL)
Next: AA: DFW-PHL (752), PHL-MIA (763), MIA-LAX (77W), LAX-DFW (789)
 
ctrabs0114
Posts: 889
Joined: Mon Oct 09, 2017 8:09 am

Re: OAG Changes 7/7/2019: AA Adds AVL-LGA;B6;DL Adds IAH-JFK,Winter SLC-LHR

Mon Jul 08, 2019 4:19 am

TW870 wrote:
I would not be surprised if we saw both IAH-LAX and DFW-SEA appear as the A220 is phased into the fleet. Delta has been reticent to operate these routes given the challenging pricing environment and competition, but the 220's economics may change that.


The sooner the better for DL adding DFW-SEA. I believe that SEA and BOS are the only two DL's hubs without non-stop service from DFW on DL; I'd much rather see DFW-SEA added by DL ahead of DFW-BOS, to be honest.

The competition on Dallas-SEA is as follows (using 13 Nov as date):

AA: 8x DFW-SEA
AS: 4x DAL-SEA; 3x DFW-SEA
WN: 1x DAL-SEA

Is this level of competition insurmountable for DL? Probably not, especially with the A220 in play. Though, if DL's decisions to bring the A220 into DFW pay off, DFW-SEA could be next on their radar.
2019: DAL, MCI, PHX, LAS, DFW, SAT, ORD, SLC, SEA, DTW; B73G (WN x3), B738 (WN, AA, DL), A20N (NK), MD83 (AA), B788 (AA x2), CS1 (DL), 739 (DL), 712 (DL)
Next: AA: DFW-PHL (752), PHL-MIA (763), MIA-LAX (77W), LAX-DFW (789)
 
AirFiero
Posts: 1282
Joined: Wed Aug 28, 2013 11:43 pm

Re: OAG Changes 7/7/2019: AA Adds AVL-LGA;B6;DL Adds IAH-JFK,Winter SLC-LHR

Mon Jul 08, 2019 4:56 am

wedgetail737 wrote:
AirFiero wrote:
Aliqiout wrote:
But AS and their partners have more connections available in SEA than B6 does in FLL.


Oh, crap. I misread this as SFO-FLL, mixing it up with SFO-PSP. :white:


As far as AS is concerned, I think it's more for Cruise traffic, than any connections. The few times I've flown the route, most of the pax were catching cruises.


Yup, I flew SJC-DFW-FLL for just that reason last January.
 
User avatar
Midwestindy
Posts: 4015
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: OAG Changes 7/7/2019: AA Adds AVL-LGA;B6;DL Adds IAH-JFK,Winter SLC-LHR

Mon Jul 08, 2019 5:10 am

ctrabs0114 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
enilria wrote:
B6 retaliation
*DL IAH-JFK OCT 0>0.3[0] NOV 0>2[0] DEC 0>2[0] JAN 0>2[0] FEB 0>2[0] MAR 0>2[0] APR 0>2[0]

lol, DL never misses a chance at B6 retaliation even if they are a secondary player in that market.


Per their website, DL is using the A220 on JFK-IAH, which has been their strategy on other hub-to-spoke routes to other airline hubs (DFW to JFK/DTW/SLC). That, combined with going head-to-head with B6, could be a chance for DL to grow at IAH, especially where you have 2x on DL compared to 1x on B6.

Your move, B6...


What makes you think B6 will respond?
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
NW
Posts: 65
Joined: Tue Jun 24, 2008 9:37 pm

Re: OAG Changes 7/7/2019: AA Adds AVL-LGA;B6;DL Adds IAH-JFK,Winter SLC-LHR

Mon Jul 08, 2019 5:17 am

IAHWorldflyer wrote:
I see this as more about DL offering up Euro connections available at JFK to their Houston area customers. JFK does have a few unique options, especially in winter, that are not replicated at ATL. A noon departure from IAH should sync into the Euro departure bank nicely.


Originally that's what Delta's IAH/JFK flight offered. With the Northwest merger and bringing Delta and Air France into the Northwest/KLM joint venture all the JFK connections and a lot more were offered via AMS and CDG.
 
User avatar
aemoreira1981
Posts: 2780
Joined: Mon Jan 09, 2017 12:17 am

Re: OAG Changes 7/7/2019: AA Adds AVL-LGA;B6;DL Adds IAH-JFK,Winter SLC-LHR

Mon Jul 08, 2019 5:23 am

IAH-JFK on DL is definitely a battle between B6 and DL for JFK dominance (DL already flies IAH-LGA on the BCS1).

BTW, for LATAM, is this merely reflecting a switch from JJ to LA flight numbers? And if that's the case, why is FOR-MIA still on a JJ flight number on some days?
 
ctrabs0114
Posts: 889
Joined: Mon Oct 09, 2017 8:09 am

Re: OAG Changes 7/7/2019: AA Adds AVL-LGA;B6;DL Adds IAH-JFK,Winter SLC-LHR

Mon Jul 08, 2019 7:20 am

Midwestindy wrote:
ctrabs0114 wrote:
tphuang wrote:

lol, DL never misses a chance at B6 retaliation even if they are a secondary player in that market.


Per their website, DL is using the A220 on JFK-IAH, which has been their strategy on other hub-to-spoke routes to other airline hubs (DFW to JFK/DTW/SLC). That, combined with going head-to-head with B6, could be a chance for DL to grow at IAH, especially where you have 2x on DL compared to 1x on B6.

Your move, B6...


What makes you think B6 will respond?


Considering the one theory is that DL is retaliating after B6's announcement re: JFK-IAH, one could presume that B6 would want to defend another JFK-based route.
2019: DAL, MCI, PHX, LAS, DFW, SAT, ORD, SLC, SEA, DTW; B73G (WN x3), B738 (WN, AA, DL), A20N (NK), MD83 (AA), B788 (AA x2), CS1 (DL), 739 (DL), 712 (DL)
Next: AA: DFW-PHL (752), PHL-MIA (763), MIA-LAX (77W), LAX-DFW (789)
 
User avatar
LAX772LR
Posts: 12322
Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:06 pm

Re: OAG Changes 7/7/2019: AA Adds AVL-LGA;B6;DL Adds IAH-JFK,Winter SLC-LHR

Mon Jul 08, 2019 8:23 am

KD5MDK wrote:
That's self-evident, but how much should be premium be compared to similar non-stop markets?

The answer to that is easy... it's the first rule of all sales:
"What the market will bear"
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
tphuang
Posts: 3001
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: OAG Changes 7/7/2019: AA Adds AVL-LGA;B6;DL Adds IAH-JFK,Winter SLC-LHR

Mon Jul 08, 2019 11:21 am

ctrabs0114 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
enilria wrote:
B6 retaliation
*DL IAH-JFK OCT 0>0.3[0] NOV 0>2[0] DEC 0>2[0] JAN 0>2[0] FEB 0>2[0] MAR 0>2[0] APR 0>2[0]

lol, DL never misses a chance at B6 retaliation even if they are a secondary player in that market.


Per their website, DL is using the A220 on JFK-IAH, which has been their strategy on other hub-to-spoke routes to other airline hubs (DFW to JFK/DTW/SLC). That, combined with going head-to-head with B6, could be a chance for DL to grow at IAH, especially where you have 2x on DL compared to 1x on B6.

Your move, B6...


B6 is not going to make any changes on this kind of retaliation. JFK-IAH is not an important market for them and they are content just capturing a fraction of the NYC-houston market that's always loyal to JetBlue. And they've done very well running just 1 flight a day. To give you an example of this from Q1

CityPair Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare% NS PerFlight # Flights LF Yield
JFKHOU 1428 B6 20566 183.57 183.59 173.46 99.76% 138.9 176 84.15% 154.49
LGAIAH 1416 OO 12809 289.63 289.89 273.88 98.37% 70.00 263 69.53% 201.57
LGAIAH 1416 UA 103786 284.31 283.4 395.06 99.18% 143.5 967 74.82% 212.03
LGAIAH 1416 YV 21995 305.96 305.88 315.03 99.12% 76.00 353 81.99% 250.78
LGAIAH 1416 YX 20718 285.71 284.96 338.55 98.60% 72.50 465 61.42% 175.02
LGAHOU 1428 WN 53234 189.75 189.11 196.68 91.66% 144.6 483 76.23% 144.15

YV there is UA, OO and YX are DL. You can see DL is significantly weaker than UA on LGA-IAH running 70 seaters on most part. They are only getting about 20% higher yield than B6 mainline out of JFK-HOU despite operating out of the more desired LGA airport and using 70 seaters. UA controls the pricing here. Just watch, when DL has to fill over 100 seats on those A220s, its yields will come down significantly.

B6 and DL at JFK don't have the same kind of strategy. B6 needs to make money on vast majority of those slots with the few remaining ones there for network purposes or political reasons. It simply doesn't have slots lying around that's available the entire year. There are quite a few higher yielding route it needs to add still. DL has a lot more slots and doesn't need to make money in JFK, so it can afford to play the long game on routes that is likely to generate significantly below average margins for perpetuity.

I'd be more interested in seeing what UA will do here. They can further upgauge, add frequencies and such. The most I see B6 doing on this route is upgauging to A321NEO at some point.
 
JAMBOJET
Posts: 71
Joined: Tue Dec 11, 2018 6:23 pm

Re: OAG Changes 7/7/2019: AA Adds AVL-LGA;B6;DL Adds IAH-JFK,Winter SLC-LHR

Mon Jul 08, 2019 11:51 am

Thanks Enilria!
 
User avatar
jfklganyc
Posts: 5401
Joined: Mon Jan 05, 2004 2:31 pm

Re: OAG Changes 7/7/2019: AA Adds AVL-LGA;B6;DL Adds IAH-JFK,Winter SLC-LHR

Mon Jul 08, 2019 12:06 pm

B6 has 178 slots or so

They rarely run 178 flights

Just throwing that out there
 
User avatar
flymco753
Posts: 3253
Joined: Fri Jun 10, 2016 2:09 am

Re: OAG Changes 7/7/2019: AA Adds AVL-LGA;B6;DL Adds IAH-JFK,Winter SLC-LHR

Mon Jul 08, 2019 1:11 pm

lavalampluva wrote:
777Mech wrote:
Luke1994 wrote:

DL’s sky-high fares completely kill basically any chance of DTW-LHR growing. They’re routinely $300-500 more than AA and UA are for nonstops from their respective Eastern US hubs (ORD, JFK, PHL, EWR, etc.).

There is absolutely room for growth, but DL artificially suppresses it. Smart business, sure, but carriers like WOW made it clear that the DTW-Europe market isn’t as saturated as some in here believe.


Because we see where WOW is today.

SLC is a better option than DTW, I think it's going to provide better connectivity for the people out west, and SLC is a nicer place to connect to.

FI isn’t going to add anything new until the MAX issue is resolved. I can’t see DL opening up a route from DTW or SLC until next spring/summer 2020.
Indeed, a hub carrier can artificially suppress a route, but it's nothing that they haven't done before. WOW undoubtedly increased travel to LON, that happens in any situation where a low cost carrier jumps on a route. It definitely increases the odd for FI or EI because they can learn from those trends.

However, say FI adds a flight to KEF, it might almost be guaranteed that the 2nd LHR comes back and prices go back down to $750 or so RT. DL probably isn't making money at that point. By cutting the flight down to once daily and raising ticket prices to stay above $1K, they're most likely going to make the money they're happy with. The 2nd flight was definitely not a measure to grow the market themselves, it was to hurt WOW. I think we all know that BA isn't going back for a long time unless there's some explosion in service (judging by current trends it's going the opposite way).
...the carriage of liquids, gels, and aerosols are prohibited through the screening checkpoint except for travel size toiletries of 3 ounces or less...
 
KD5MDK
Posts: 802
Joined: Wed Mar 13, 2013 4:05 am

Re: OAG Changes 7/7/2019: AA Adds AVL-LGA;B6;DL Adds IAH-JFK,Winter SLC-LHR

Tue Jul 09, 2019 4:25 am

LAX772LR wrote:
KD5MDK wrote:
That's self-evident, but how much should be premium be compared to similar non-stop markets?

The answer to that is easy... it's the first rule of all sales:
"What the market will bear"

Being sure to price your flights below cost if any competitors show up to ensure the market doesn’t offer alternatives.

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos