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kitplane01
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New Airbus and Boeing Market Forecasts

Mon Jul 08, 2019 3:29 am

Airbus forecasts
    Narrow Body (including A220): 28,500
    Medium: (includes A321LR and A330): 5,500
    Wide Body (includes 787?): 3,300
    Total: 37,000+

Boeing forecast:
    90 seats and below 2,240 aircraft
    90 seats and above: 32,420 aircraft
    Widebody: 8,340 aircraft
    Freighter widebody: 1,040 aircraft
    Total excluding below 90 seats: 44,000

The categories don't quite line up. But in general, Boeing is about 15% more optimistic than Airbus, and believes there will proportionally be more narrow body.

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seahawk
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Re: New Airbus and Boeing Market Forecasts

Mon Jul 08, 2019 5:04 am

The biggest difference is in widebodies. 5000 frames difference, I wonder if this is due to the MoM.
 
RJMAZ
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Re: New Airbus and Boeing Market Forecasts

Mon Jul 08, 2019 5:22 am

The Airbus medium category can probably include a small widebody like the 797. So they seem the same.
 
VV
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Re: New Airbus and Boeing Market Forecasts

Mon Jul 08, 2019 5:34 am

Where have all the VLAs gone?

Aren't airports congested anymore?
 
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kitplane01
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Re: New Airbus and Boeing Market Forecasts

Mon Jul 08, 2019 5:35 am

seahawk wrote:
The biggest difference is in widebodies. 5000 frames difference, I wonder if this is due to the MoM.


Airbus is being weird. Their "medium" category includes the 321LR (but not the 321) and the 330 and probably the new NMA. Boeing (and everyone else) would include the 330 and the NMA into the widebody catagory. Airbus does not say how many of the "medium" is 321LRs.

The prediction difference is at most +5,000 (if all the mediums are 321LR an no 330s nor NMAs are sold) and -260 if no 321LRs are sold, and the whole of medium goes to 330s and NMAs.

It makes no sense to me to put 321neos into a category, and 321lrs into another. Ptttth!
 
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kitplane01
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Re: New Airbus and Boeing Market Forecasts

Mon Jul 08, 2019 5:36 am

VV wrote:
Where have all the VLAs gone?

Aren't airports congested anymore?


Funny!

Airbus no longer has a category "VLA". Please don't turn this into an A380 thread!
 
VV
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Re: New Airbus and Boeing Market Forecasts

Mon Jul 08, 2019 6:25 am

kitplane01 wrote:
VV wrote:
Where have all the VLAs gone?

Aren't airports congested anymore?


Funny!

Airbus no longer has a category "VLA". Please don't turn this into an A380 thread!


VLA is not A380, although A380 is a VLA.

The question still stands. Where have all the VLAs gone?
 
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Re: New Airbus and Boeing Market Forecasts

Mon Jul 08, 2019 6:41 am

VV wrote:
Where have all the VLAs gone?


Neither manufacturer seems very upbeat about VLAs, and for good reasons. They've both been bitten.

That said, the 'Freighter widebody' category Boeing mentions likely includes the 747, so there you go.
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VV
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Re: New Airbus and Boeing Market Forecasts

Mon Jul 08, 2019 6:51 am

Francoflier wrote:
VV wrote:
Where have all the VLAs gone?


Neither manufacturer seems very upbeat about VLAs, and for good reasons. They've both been bitten.

That said, the 'Freighter widebody' category Boeing mentions likely includes the 747, so there you go.


Correct, but it does not change the fact there have been a lot of VLA in past forecasts untul three years ago.

The question still stands. Where have all the VLAs gone?

Why does airport congestion all of a sudden become a non-issue? What happened to mega hubs?

There has to be a kind of explanation on this sudden change of discourse in the industry because traffic growth has not stopped.
Something has changed.

What are the new solutions to congested airports? If there are solutions then why didn't people think about them before, instead of pushing for VLAs? What went wrong?
 
marcelh
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Re: New Airbus and Boeing Market Forecasts

Mon Jul 08, 2019 6:53 am

kitplane01 wrote:
It makes no sense to me to put 321neos into a category, and 321lrs into another. Ptttth!

The A321(X)LR looks like a ordinary NB, but much more capable and will be a good alternative for smaller WB. So it makes sense.
 
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kitplane01
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Re: New Airbus and Boeing Market Forecasts

Mon Jul 08, 2019 7:05 am

VV wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
VV wrote:
Where have all the VLAs gone?


Neither manufacturer seems very upbeat about VLAs, and for good reasons. They've both been bitten.

That said, the 'Freighter widebody' category Boeing mentions likely includes the 747, so there you go.


Correct, but it does not change the fact there have been a lot of VLA in past forecasts untul three years ago.

The question still stands. Where have all the VLAs gone?
...
There has to be a kind of explanation on this sudden change of discourse in the industry because traffic growth has not stopped.
Something has changed.


I believe that in the past both Boeing and Airbus had a category for VLAs, and it was 747s and A380s. Both companies have learned that they cannot sell such planes. They no longer offer such planes. That's what's changed.

If your point is that the market forecasts for VLAs from the past were wrong, everyone agrees. They have learned more (that A380s and 747s don't sell) and they have updated their forecasts. This is as it should be. And you want to talk about the fate of the A380, please don't hijack this thread!

Anyone have an opinion about total sales, Airbus or the 15% larger Boeing?
 
VV
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Re: New Airbus and Boeing Market Forecasts

Mon Jul 08, 2019 7:33 am

kitplane01 wrote:
I believe that in the past both Boeing and Airbus had a category for VLAs, and it was 747s and A380s. Both companies have learned that they cannot sell such planes. They no longer offer such planes. That's what's changed.

If your point is that the market forecasts for VLAs from the past were wrong, everyone agrees. They have learned more (that A380s and 747s don't sell) and they have updated their forecasts. This is as it should be. And you want to talk about the fate of the A380, please don't hijack this thread!
...


The thread is about forecast and I am just asking the question why people do not try to understand what happened to past forecasts on the very large aircraft.

More importantly, it is about understanding on why the rationale about the large aircraft did not work out.

Why would the new rationale for the forecast this year would be more correct than the past forecasts if there has not been any assessment of what went wrong in the past. It is NOT about Airbus or Boeing, it is about how people can be so wrong about the market. If there is no objective post mortem, nobody cannot be sure the current forecast would not be as rubbish as past VLA forecast.

In essence, we need to be very cautious about any forecast and never take them as the reality.

I am insisting on the fact VLA market forecast has been way off. During about twenty years we have been told that airport congestion would push the growth of VLA. TWENTY YEARS.

So yes, the question still stands, "Where have all the VLAs gone?"
 
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kitplane01
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Re: New Airbus and Boeing Market Forecasts

Mon Jul 08, 2019 7:57 am

VV wrote:
kitplane01 wrote:
I believe that in the past both Boeing and Airbus had a category for VLAs, and it was 747s and A380s. Both companies have learned that they cannot sell such planes. They no longer offer such planes. That's what's changed.

If your point is that the market forecasts for VLAs from the past were wrong, everyone agrees. They have learned more (that A380s and 747s don't sell) and they have updated their forecasts. This is as it should be. And you want to talk about the fate of the A380, please don't hijack this thread!
...


The thread is about forecast and I am just asking the question why people do not try to understand what happened to past forecasts on the very large aircraft.

More importantly, it is about understanding on why the rationale about the large aircraft did not work out.

Why would the new rationale for the forecast this year would be more correct than the past forecasts if there has not been any assessment of what went wrong in the past. It is NOT about Airbus or Boeing, it is about how people can be so wrong about the market. If there is no objective post mortem, nobody cannot be sure the current forecast would not be as rubbish as past VLA forecast.

In essence, we need to be very cautious about any forecast and never take them as the reality.

I am insisting on the fact VLA market forecast has been way off. During about twenty years we have been told that airport congestion would push the growth of VLA. TWENTY YEARS.

So yes, the question still stands, "Where have all the VLAs gone?"


Everything you wrote makes sense.

In 2008, Airbus forecast something like 1,700 VLAs and Boeing something like 500. Normally they look at the same data and reach similar conclusions. It's the biggest and most important difference between the forecasts that has ever occurred. And it was very impactful.

In the history of airliners.net, this question has never been resolved. But here are some of the many threads discussing the VLA market forecast.

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1363967&p=19572707&hilit=vla+market+forecast+boeing+airbus#p19572707
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1415373&p=21096353&hilit=vla+market+forecast#p21096353
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1423137&p=21384557&hilit=vla+market+forecast#p21384557
 
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PW100
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Re: New Airbus and Boeing Market Forecasts

Mon Jul 08, 2019 1:48 pm

VV wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
VV wrote:
Where have all the VLAs gone?

Neither manufacturer seems very upbeat about VLAs, and for good reasons. They've both been bitten.
That said, the 'Freighter widebody' category Boeing mentions likely includes the 747, so there you go.

Correct, but it does not change the fact there have been a lot of VLA in past forecasts untul three years ago.

The question still stands. Where have all the VLAs gone?


Well duh, in the WB category.
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Noshow
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Re: New Airbus and Boeing Market Forecasts

Mon Jul 08, 2019 1:53 pm

Looking back it is more easy to think about the reasons for lack of demand of VLA. Here are some. Feel free to add:

-New twins with latest engines being as cost efficient per seat as VLAs were offered
-these aircraft make more point to point flights possible and weaken hubs where less VLAs were needed
-airlines focussed on higher yield business class passengers. Not so much on sheer numbers of eco passengers as before.
-Business passengers prefer more flight frequencies per day instead of only a few (VLA) flights.
-mayor hubs like hongkong and heathrow plan third runways now (more slots)
-the middle east economies seem to cool down weakening VLA-demand for their hubs
-low demand for VLA made them exots, expensive and hard to re-lease them to next customers. This killed the final demand remaining and the business case.
-China politically splitting it's airline system into many small airlines instead of a few big players that could have used VLAs.

I'd still say: A modern VLA with modern engines (as modern as competing big twins) should find a market. Look at China, Asia and India. Many people, many big cities, many trunk routes, huge airports ready for VLAs.It MUST work?
 
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Dutchy
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Re: New Airbus and Boeing Market Forecasts

Mon Jul 08, 2019 2:21 pm

kitplane01 wrote:
Anyone have an opinion about total sales, Airbus or the 15% larger Boeing?


All depends on how serious the Paris agreement is going to be taken and thus the effect on air travel, these numbers don't seem to reflect this. Given this, I can't give an informed opinion to these two analyses, nobody here can. A team of professionals came up with these numbers, so what are you looking for?
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Re: New Airbus and Boeing Market Forecasts

Mon Jul 08, 2019 2:23 pm

Noshow wrote:
I'd still say: A modern VLA with modern engines (as modern as competing big twins) should find a market. Look at China, Asia and India. Many people, many big cities, many trunk routes, huge airports ready for VLAs.It MUST work?


I agree, but is either Boeing or Airbus going to risk tens of billions to find out?
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
mwhcvt
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Re: New Airbus and Boeing Market Forecasts

Mon Jul 08, 2019 2:25 pm

So both the main manufacturers are predicting a 50%+ increase in what they currently produce call me suspect but this seems to be more about being positive to their share holders than anything based in reality, no doubt there will be production but I think nothing quite so dramatic, we are already seeing what happens, over the last 10 years we have not really seen a 25% increase in production what we have seen is moderate increase mostly in narrowbody frames but a little also in the medium sized wide body frames...the main capacity increase is coming through increased frame sizes just look at the A320 and how the A321 has grown so rapidly to being the leading seller in the family, and how for the 737 line that slowly but surely airlines have moved away from the smaller members of the family into the larger members primarily the 800 over the 900 though for specific reasons I’m sure

Same with wide body frames there’s been a trend where the more popular members of the family have been the larger members especially as technology has allowed them to become more versatile vs the smaller members that were often there for the longer range missions
Must think up a new one soon, slow moving brain trying to get into gear ;)
 
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Re: New Airbus and Boeing Market Forecasts

Mon Jul 08, 2019 3:09 pm

Where have all the VLA gone, long time passing, when did we ever learn.

Modern two engine planes can match economics on medium to looong flights.
It is not so comfortable to be one of several hundred boarding a plane.
Given any two planes with similar seating, the smaller will tend to feel the most comfortable*
Growing economy, world around, has created demand for more destinations. Way more.
One stop now means that any medium large airport can connect to to almost every other medium large airport.**

*I flew on a 175 for the first time, and in Y. No question that spouse and I would sit together. Just a few of us were boarding. Seating (non-reclining) was entirely adequate for a two hour flight. Every seat was either a window or aisle. We were toward the front, but even for those in the back, it would not take 30 minutes to get off the plane (and risk missing a connection).

**My suspicion is that for this to work, and I will use Seattle ten years ago as an example: there needs to be at least two airlines, better three, three destination each in Europe and Asia, one or two in Africa or South America. And domestically at least a dozen destinations.
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Re: New Airbus and Boeing Market Forecasts

Mon Jul 08, 2019 3:11 pm

Regarding the questions, "where have all the VLA's gone?" and "Aren't airports still congested?"

Imho, the whole idea was a sales job. Fake news. Propoganda. Whatever you want to call it. There are plenty of options for marginal capacity increases, and real airlines have no interest in depressing yields below profitability (again) anyway. It was a manufacturer sales job.certain airports will always be relatively congested.

Or, if you refuse to believe that they were purposely lying, they were just wrong. Analysts were simply wrong.

STC didn't help things by capacity dumping his subsidized airline all over the world. He seemed to think that this was still the 1970s and international airlines were still measured by the number of VLA's that they had. Sorry, those days are gone forever.
 
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Re: New Airbus and Boeing Market Forecasts

Mon Jul 08, 2019 4:08 pm

How does the above discussion comfort us in term of believing their forecast TODAY?

What if it is still a propaganda or "sales job"?

Why should we believe them today when they have been voluntarily or involuntarily misinformed us during almost twenty years?
 
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Re: New Airbus and Boeing Market Forecasts

Mon Jul 08, 2019 4:12 pm

kitplane01 wrote:
Anyone have an opinion about total sales, Airbus or the 15% larger Boeing?


I wouldn't worry about a 15% difference in a 20-year outlook, frankly. There's a whole series of assumptions behind it (CO2 regulation, income growth, air treaties, fuel costs) and other elements of risk (market share, execution risk a la 787 and A380/A400M) that can overwhelm that difference. One might put it differently: How would a 15% cut in volume on any specific type (let's say new 737 or NMA) change program ROI and willingness to commit?
 
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Re: New Airbus and Boeing Market Forecasts

Mon Jul 08, 2019 4:14 pm

VV wrote:
How does the above discussion comfort us in term of believing their forecast TODAY?

What if it is still a propaganda or "sales job"?

Why should we believe them today when they have been voluntarily or involuntarily misinformed us during almost twenty years?


Spoken like a man who's never been responsible for market research or forecasting. Every forecast is wrong: It's just a matter of how quickly and how badly.
 
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Re: New Airbus and Boeing Market Forecasts

Mon Jul 08, 2019 4:20 pm

Businesses move when a metropolitan area lacks transportation. What facinates me more is that Boeing is predicting a major stimulation of the widebody market with the NMA.

What interests me is effectively predicting more hub bypass again than Airbus.

I think both are avoiding VLA terminology. Technically, the 779 is a VLA. Airbus doesn't want to say Boeing has 100% of X00 aircraft. Boeing doesn't want to call the 777X a VLA as people will recall how small a market they predicted before.

I'm more interested in the small <90 seat market. I hope that part of the prediction is overly conservative.

Lightsaber
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9Patch
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Re: New Airbus and Boeing Market Forecasts

Mon Jul 08, 2019 4:23 pm

VV wrote:

Why would the new rationale for the forecast this year would be more correct than the past forecasts if there has not been any assessment of what went wrong in the past.


“It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” --Yogi Berra
 
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Re: New Airbus and Boeing Market Forecasts

Mon Jul 08, 2019 4:41 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
VV wrote:
How does the above discussion comfort us in term of believing their forecast TODAY?

What if it is still a propaganda or "sales job"?

Why should we believe them today when they have been voluntarily or involuntarily misinformed us during almost twenty years?


Spoken like a man who's never been responsible for market research or forecasting. Every forecast is wrong: It's just a matter of how quickly and how badly.

They have always underpredicted demand over 20 years. They never hold for sizing. The early market outlooks missed the RJ boom and plummet in small turboprops. Airbus missed market fragmentation to the degree it occurred.

I agree, something will be wrong. The question is how long until we and the airlines notice. Much depends on the rate of airport expansion, progress in high speed rail, and distribution of economic growth, turboprop development, and new entrants. E.g., airlines being voluntold to buy inferior products slows market growth.

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9Patch
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Re: New Airbus and Boeing Market Forecasts

Mon Jul 08, 2019 5:41 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Technically, the 779 is a VLA.

Is there an 'official' definition of VLA? Who decides?
Do Airbus and Boeing agree on it?

Airbus doesn't want to say Boeing has 100% of X00 aircraft.

What does X00 mean?

Boeing doesn't want to call the 777X a VLA as people will recall how small a market they predicted before.

Did Boeing ever make a market prediction specifically for the 777X?
 
Vladex
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Re: New Airbus and Boeing Market Forecasts

Mon Jul 08, 2019 6:14 pm

VV wrote:
kitplane01 wrote:
I believe that in the past both Boeing and Airbus had a category for VLAs, and it was 747s and A380s. Both companies have learned that they cannot sell such planes. They no longer offer such planes. That's what's changed.

If your point is that the market forecasts for VLAs from the past were wrong, everyone agrees. They have learned more (that A380s and 747s don't sell) and they have updated their forecasts. This is as it should be. And you want to talk about the fate of the A380, please don't hijack this thread!
...


The thread is about forecast and I am just asking the question why people do not try to understand what happened to past forecasts on the very large aircraft.

More importantly, it is about understanding on why the rationale about the large aircraft did not work out.

Why would the new rationale for the forecast this year would be more correct than the past forecasts if there has not been any assessment of what went wrong in the past. It is NOT about Airbus or Boeing, it is about how people can be so wrong about the market. If there is no objective post mortem, nobody cannot be sure the current forecast would not be as rubbish as past VLA forecast.

In essence, we need to be very cautious about any forecast and never take them as the reality.

I am insisting on the fact VLA market forecast has been way off. During about twenty years we have been told that airport congestion would push the growth of VLA. TWENTY YEARS.

So yes, the question still stands, "Where have all the VLAs gone?"


Newer and better engines made smaller planes substantially better to their predecessor but only up to a point whereas A380 hadn't been reengined. Those better engines made bigger models very popular (A321, A330-900, 777-9, 737-10) and smaller models actually disappear (A319, A330-800, 777-8, 737-7) which increased capacity and made airlines shy away from any perceived risks of going VLA or rather going with older engine technology. But the big point is that dual engine aircraft are actually maxed out for new engine development due to inherent lack of ground clearance whereas double deck aircraft has an inherent advantage to put almost any engine onto its wings.

This is why VLA double deck aircraft are bound to come back due to engine developments and they will have to because of electrification of all vehicles will make transportation so much cheaper that traveling by airplane will be so much more expensive and not really desirable in many places compared to electric cars. So yes predictions were wrong before about VLA domination just like they are wrong now about future dual engine single deck domination.
 
VV
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Re: New Airbus and Boeing Market Forecasts

Mon Jul 08, 2019 7:33 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
VV wrote:
How does the above discussion comfort us in term of believing their forecast TODAY?

What if it is still a propaganda or "sales job"?

Why should we believe them today when they have been voluntarily or involuntarily misinformed us during almost twenty years?


Spoken like a man who's never been responsible for market research or forecasting. Every forecast is wrong: It's just a matter of how quickly and how badly.


Is there anyone here who has been responsible for market research or forecasting?

Some people, like me, had written down that VLA market was small and shrinking.
A lot of people wanted to believe that it was the "only" solution to solve the issue of airport congestion.

They were plainly wrong weren't they? And today some say that forecast is always wrong?
Where are you during these years?

It is so sad for those suppliers who believed the numbers and sized their business as function of the forecast.
 
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kitplane01
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Re: New Airbus and Boeing Market Forecasts

Tue Jul 09, 2019 2:56 am

lightsaber wrote:
They have always underpredicted demand over 20 years. They never hold for sizing. The early market outlooks missed the RJ boom and plummet in small turboprops. Airbus missed market fragmentation to the degree it occurred.


I'm very interested. How much have they been under predicting demand? Can you make any kind of quantitative statement? How much were the 20 year ago forecasts off?

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