CRJ200flyer
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Delta Benefits from MAX Groundings

Mon Jul 08, 2019 10:48 pm

http://m.atwonline.com/airlines/analyst-delta-sees-revenue-capacity-gains-max-grounding

“Delta has benefited from customer spillover from competitors and partners being impacted by the grounding of the aircraft,” Becker wrote. “Despite Delta’s higher growth, underlying industry capacity growth remains lower than initially expected, which is driving higher load factors and higher average ticket prices.”

72 MAXs from other US carriers are now grounded.

Do you see any long term benefit for Delta, or will the results disappear upon the MAX return?
If the grounding continues for several more months as expected, how do you think the industry will handle around 100 aircraft arriving back into service?
 
tkoenig95
Posts: 287
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Re: Delta Benefits from MAX Groundings

Mon Jul 08, 2019 11:50 pm

They are probably picking up some of AM's slack on the industry-focused routes. IIRC, DTW-MTY is going to be reduced in the fall due to the MAX grounding and aircraft charades.
 
crjflyboy
Posts: 164
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Re: Delta Benefits from MAX Groundings

Mon Jul 08, 2019 11:58 pm

CRJ200flyer wrote:
http://m.atwonline.com/airlines/analyst-delta-sees-revenue-capacity-gains-max-grounding

“Delta has benefited from customer spillover from competitors and partners being impacted by the grounding of the aircraft,” Becker wrote. “Despite Delta’s higher growth, underlying industry capacity growth remains lower than initially expected, which is driving higher load factors and higher average ticket prices.”

72 MAXs from other US carriers are now grounded.

Do you see any long term benefit for Delta, or will the results disappear upon the MAX return?
If the grounding continues for several more months as expected, how do you think the industry will handle around 100 aircraft arriving back into service?


The public does not want to fly on the MAX anymore.

DELTA is in the catbirds seat right now and will reap the benefits for a long time.
 
cledaybuck
Posts: 1522
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Re: Delta Benefits from MAX Groundings

Tue Jul 09, 2019 12:11 am

crjflyboy wrote:
CRJ200flyer wrote:
http://m.atwonline.com/airlines/analyst-delta-sees-revenue-capacity-gains-max-grounding

“Delta has benefited from customer spillover from competitors and partners being impacted by the grounding of the aircraft,” Becker wrote. “Despite Delta’s higher growth, underlying industry capacity growth remains lower than initially expected, which is driving higher load factors and higher average ticket prices.”

72 MAXs from other US carriers are now grounded.

Do you see any long term benefit for Delta, or will the results disappear upon the MAX return?
If the grounding continues for several more months as expected, how do you think the industry will handle around 100 aircraft arriving back into service?


The public does not want to fly on the MAX anymore.

DELTA is in the catbirds seat right now and will reap the benefits for a long time.

That’s not what the article is saying.
As we celebrate mediocrity, all the boys upstairs want to see, how much you'll pay for what you used to get for free.
 
TTailedTiger
Posts: 1349
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Re: Delta Benefits from MAX Groundings

Tue Jul 09, 2019 12:24 am

crjflyboy wrote:
CRJ200flyer wrote:
http://m.atwonline.com/airlines/analyst-delta-sees-revenue-capacity-gains-max-grounding

“Delta has benefited from customer spillover from competitors and partners being impacted by the grounding of the aircraft,” Becker wrote. “Despite Delta’s higher growth, underlying industry capacity growth remains lower than initially expected, which is driving higher load factors and higher average ticket prices.”

72 MAXs from other US carriers are now grounded.

Do you see any long term benefit for Delta, or will the results disappear upon the MAX return?
If the grounding continues for several more months as expected, how do you think the industry will handle around 100 aircraft arriving back into service?


The public does not want to fly on the MAX anymore.

DELTA is in the catbirds seat right now and will reap the benefits for a long time.


Speak for yourself. I'd love a seat on one of the first flights back in the air but the travel personalities and influencers will probably pack them out. Especially since the airline executives will be on them.
 
crjflyboy
Posts: 164
Joined: Thu Jun 06, 2019 10:54 pm

Re: Delta Benefits from MAX Groundings

Tue Jul 09, 2019 12:32 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
crjflyboy wrote:
CRJ200flyer wrote:
http://m.atwonline.com/airlines/analyst-delta-sees-revenue-capacity-gains-max-grounding

“Delta has benefited from customer spillover from competitors and partners being impacted by the grounding of the aircraft,” Becker wrote. “Despite Delta’s higher growth, underlying industry capacity growth remains lower than initially expected, which is driving higher load factors and higher average ticket prices.”

72 MAXs from other US carriers are now grounded.

Do you see any long term benefit for Delta, or will the results disappear upon the MAX return?
If the grounding continues for several more months as expected, how do you think the industry will handle around 100 aircraft arriving back into service?


The public does not want to fly on the MAX anymore.

DELTA is in the catbirds seat right now and will reap the benefits for a long time.


Speak for yourself. I'd love a seat on one of the first flights back in the air but the travel personalities and influencers will probably pack them out. Especially since the airline executives will be on them.


I'm not the only one stating it

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... like-taint
 
Etheereal
Posts: 335
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Re: Delta Benefits from MAX Groundings

Tue Jul 09, 2019 12:41 am

crjflyboy wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
crjflyboy wrote:

The public does not want to fly on the MAX anymore.

DELTA is in the catbirds seat right now and will reap the benefits for a long time.


Speak for yourself. I'd love a seat on one of the first flights back in the air but the travel personalities and influencers will probably pack them out. Especially since the airline executives will be on them.


I'm not the only one stating it

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... like-taint

And im not the only one saying i'd fly in the MAX as soon as it's ungrounded, but no clue when AM will take them back to BOG.
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Revelation
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Re: Delta Benefits from MAX Groundings

Tue Jul 09, 2019 1:07 am

CRJ200flyer wrote:
http://m.atwonline.com/airlines/analyst-delta-sees-revenue-capacity-gains-max-grounding

“Delta has benefited from customer spillover from competitors and partners being impacted by the grounding of the aircraft,” Becker wrote. “Despite Delta’s higher growth, underlying industry capacity growth remains lower than initially expected, which is driving higher load factors and higher average ticket prices.”

72 MAXs from other US carriers are now grounded.

Do you see any long term benefit for Delta, or will the results disappear upon the MAX return?
If the grounding continues for several more months as expected, how do you think the industry will handle around 100 aircraft arriving back into service?

I've seen one article from AvWeek ( https://atwonline.com/airlines/analysts ... acity-2020 was once free but now behind paywall ) suggesting it will just amplify the overcapacity that is almost certain to hit in 2020.

European airlines face a worsening capacity glut in 2020 as narrowbody deliveries, already approaching record numbers, are boosted by late deliveries of Boeing 737 MAXs, analysts warn. “The flood of planes is in full swing in Europe as narrowbody deliveries are set to reach record highs in 2020,” Bernstein Research analyst Daniel Roeska wrote in a July 1 report. European airlines are scheduled to take delivery of about 300 narrowbodies this year, rising to 400 in 2020.

One other article from AirCurrent ( https://theaircurrent.com/aircraft-prod ... lack-swan/ ) is also pretty gloomy:

A crisis of confidence after the crashes of Lion Air 610 and Ethiopian Airlines 302, an uncertain resolution to the jet’s grounding and a market bulging with airplanes. Now supplier, leasing and airline executives from around the world are expressing concern that the grounding of the 737 Max is the ‘black swan’ event — the exogenous shock — that will accelerate a cyclical downturn that was already here, as airlines who bought too many planes take cover under its wing.

And:

In 2018, signs of oversupply are increasing. According to IATA global capacity of available seats grew at 6.1% in December — demand trailed at 5.3% as load factors and yields fell. In the domestic markets in the U.S, China and India, packed with new 737 Max and A320neo aircraft, where capacity is growing “much faster than demand,” according to Slattery.

So DL and others must be careful to recognize whatever gains they get from the 737 grounding as a windfall, but the Air Current article voices concerns that they are not.
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lightsaber
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Re: Delta Benefits from MAX Groundings

Tue Jul 09, 2019 1:49 am

Revelation wrote:
CRJ200flyer wrote:
http://m.atwonline.com/airlines/analyst-delta-sees-revenue-capacity-gains-max-grounding

“Delta has benefited from customer spillover from competitors and partners being impacted by the grounding of the aircraft,” Becker wrote. “Despite Delta’s higher growth, underlying industry capacity growth remains lower than initially expected, which is driving higher load factors and higher average ticket prices.”

72 MAXs from other US carriers are now grounded.

Do you see any long term benefit for Delta, or will the results disappear upon the MAX return?
If the grounding continues for several more months as expected, how do you think the industry will handle around 100 aircraft arriving back into service?

I've seen one article from AvWeek ( https://atwonline.com/airlines/analysts ... acity-2020 was once free but now behind paywall ) suggesting it will just amplify the overcapacity that is almost certain to hit in 2020.

European airlines face a worsening capacity glut in 2020 as narrowbody deliveries, already approaching record numbers, are boosted by late deliveries of Boeing 737 MAXs, analysts warn. “The flood of planes is in full swing in Europe as narrowbody deliveries are set to reach record highs in 2020,” Bernstein Research analyst Daniel Roeska wrote in a July 1 report. European airlines are scheduled to take delivery of about 300 narrowbodies this year, rising to 400 in 2020.

One other article from AirCurrent ( https://theaircurrent.com/aircraft-prod ... lack-swan/ ) is also pretty gloomy:

A crisis of confidence after the crashes of Lion Air 610 and Ethiopian Airlines 302, an uncertain resolution to the jet’s grounding and a market bulging with airplanes. Now supplier, leasing and airline executives from around the world are expressing concern that the grounding of the 737 Max is the ‘black swan’ event — the exogenous shock — that will accelerate a cyclical downturn that was already here, as airlines who bought too many planes take cover under its wing.

And:

In 2018, signs of oversupply are increasing. According to IATA global capacity of available seats grew at 6.1% in December — demand trailed at 5.3% as load factors and yields fell. In the domestic markets in the U.S, China and India, packed with new 737 Max and A320neo aircraft, where capacity is growing “much faster than demand,” according to Slattery.

So DL and others must be careful to recognize whatever gains they get from the 737 grounding as a windfall, but the Air Current article voices concerns that they are not.

Unfortunately, I also believe we are going into oversupply once the MAX deliveries return.

Some of the shock will be absorbed by old aircraft retirements (MD-80, A319s). But so many new narrowbody aircraft are pursuing too few new customers.

DL has an easy capacity reduction option (replace MD-80s/90s) although higher utilization drives up capacity.

But as of now fares are elevated.

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LDRA
Posts: 273
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Re: Delta Benefits from MAX Groundings

Tue Jul 09, 2019 1:51 am

Well, Delta has not started taking delivery of A321NEO right? So how does Delta benefit? WN, AA and UA can always lease extra NG or CEO
 
SocalApproach
Posts: 224
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Re: Delta Benefits from MAX Groundings

Tue Jul 09, 2019 1:59 am

crjflyboy wrote:
CRJ200flyer wrote:
http://m.atwonline.com/airlines/analyst-delta-sees-revenue-capacity-gains-max-grounding

“Delta has benefited from customer spillover from competitors and partners being impacted by the grounding of the aircraft,” Becker wrote. “Despite Delta’s higher growth, underlying industry capacity growth remains lower than initially expected, which is driving higher load factors and higher average ticket prices.”

72 MAXs from other US carriers are now grounded.

Do you see any long term benefit for Delta, or will the results disappear upon the MAX return?
If the grounding continues for several more months as expected, how do you think the industry will handle around 100 aircraft arriving back into service?


The public does not want to fly on the MAX anymore.

DELTA is in the catbirds seat right now and will reap the benefits for a long time.



I can tell I don't want to fly on the MAX because even though they are grounded I still for some reason double checked my aircraft type on my last flight I booked on UA a few weeks ago
 
crjflyboy
Posts: 164
Joined: Thu Jun 06, 2019 10:54 pm

Re: Delta Benefits from MAX Groundings

Tue Jul 09, 2019 2:11 am

Delta upgrading their inflight service.

https://www.bizjournals.com/chicago/new ... yptr=yahoo
 
StuckInCA
Posts: 1657
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Re: Delta Benefits from MAX Groundings

Tue Jul 09, 2019 2:19 am

crjflyboy wrote:
Delta upgrading their inflight service.

https://www.bizjournals.com/chicago/new ... yptr=yahoo


Actually a downgrade from a full beverage service if I'm not mistaken. And, as that is for international flights, not that relevant to the conversation.
 
Sooner787
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Re: Delta Benefits from MAX Groundings

Tue Jul 09, 2019 2:24 am

Delta like Airbus are mature enough not to be scoreboarding Boeing or any US carriers
over safety issues. They attitude should be and appears to be " But by the grace of God go I "

I have high confidence Boeing will make the MAX family the safest airliners in the skies.
and if I'm Airbus, I'm studying the fixes the regulatory authorities mandate and triple check
my family of airliners to see if there is anything that they could add to their planes to increase safety
 
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flee
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Re: Delta Benefits from MAX Groundings

Tue Jul 09, 2019 2:48 am

If the overcapacity takes place in 2020, won't this accelerate the retirement of less efficient aircraft?

With new generation A320 Neos and B737Maxs, airlines can improve the flying experience and/or cut air fares to stimulate demand. Or is this downturn just a normal boom-bust cycle in the industry?
 
chiad
Posts: 1203
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Re: Delta Benefits from MAX Groundings

Tue Jul 09, 2019 7:46 am

Etheereal wrote:
crjflyboy wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:

Speak for yourself. I'd love a seat on one of the first flights back in the air but the travel personalities and influencers will probably pack them out. Especially since the airline executives will be on them.


I'm not the only one stating it

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... like-taint

And im not the only one saying i'd fly in the MAX as soon as it's ungrounded, but no clue when AM will take them back to BOG.


If there's a choice I will wait a couple of years after the ungrounding before I choose a MAX flight.
But if there's no choice I'll still go with the MAX.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 5632
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Re: Delta Benefits from MAX Groundings

Tue Jul 09, 2019 10:56 am

CRJ200flyer wrote:
72 MAXs from other US carriers are now grounded.


This is planespotters.net's frame count for U.S. carriers, excluding regionals:

AA, 965
DL, 917
UA, 783
WN, 754
AS, 328
B6, 254
Spirit, 135
Allegiant, 90
Frontier, 90
Hawaiian, 57

Total, 4373, plus about 1,500 regional jets

Look at that and argue that 72 MAXs is a meaningful loss of domestic capacity across the industry. It's nothing. Delta is making money because Delta has an efficient, reliable operation and makes money every quarter (that it isn't losing $Billions in mark-to-market fuel hedge write-downs, anyway).

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