Sorry if this has been talked about already but I haven't seen anything.

The question is regarding the order books of the two most popular widebody types going forward (787 and a350).

Stats from wikipedia:

The 787 at current production rate has between 3-4 years left as the backlog stands.
1440 total orders - 840 already delivered - approx 90 further deliveries this year - 150 deliveries per year = approx 4 years left

The a350 has about 5 years left at the end of this year.
893 total orders - 278 already delivered - approx 60 further deliveries this year - 100 delieveries per year = approx 5 years left

I realise there's still the 777X and the a330neo but they represent a much smaller portion of the widebody market.

So in terms of the widebodies, what is going to happen? Are we going to see a freeze with only some incremental orders until in the late 2020s we see a neo for both the 787 and a350?

The current order book for both the 787 and a350 is just that current. These planes will continue selling for the next 15 to 20 years. Just look at the A330 as an example.

They’ll keep selling which means the order book will keep growing well into the future.

Once sales reduce and the order book is running low, production rates will be reduced to keep production going for as long as possible whilst new buyers are found.

If no new buyers are found, production will cease.

See the A380 as a recent example of how a programme is shut down at the end of its life (apart from in-service support of course).

I know this make come as a shock but Boeing and Airbus may actually secure additional orders in the future.

StTim wrote:

The current order book for both the 787 and a350 is just that current. These planes will continue selling for the next 15 to 20 years. Just look at the A330 as an example.

You seem so sure, though the vast majority of the planes that will be replaced with these next-gen aircraft already have orders placed...

Maybe there's another couple hundred left that need replacing but is there really that much growth for these to keep selling past the mid 2020 mark in their current spec...?

Look how long boeing has been selling the 737 line.

It is a valid question to ask if Boeing will continue to sell 150 787s per year the next 5 years; the answer is likely no. But, it will also likely taper off slowly, and as they get to a certain point either the price will drop to spur demand, or new improvements will be made to expand the market. These planes likely have a 20 year service life with airlines, so you will start to see a replacement cycle before too long, assuming tomorrow’s plane is better then yesterday’s.

The 350 is much earlier in its cycle, so its upside on orders is likely even stronger.

The 350 and 787 could outlast the 777 though.

kimimm19 wrote:

StTim wrote:

The current order book for both the 787 and a350 is just that current. These planes will continue selling for the next 15 to 20 years. Just look at the A330 as an example.

You seem so sure, though the vast majority of the planes that will be replaced with these next-gen aircraft already have orders placed...

Maybe there's another couple hundred left that need replacing but is there really that much growth for these to keep selling past the mid 2020 mark in their current spec...?

Well, IF the orders dry out that quickly (which remains to be seen), Airbus and Boeing will tweak the A350 & 787 and sell many more.

WeatherPilot wrote:

Look how long boeing has been selling the 737 line.

Too Long.

I can easily see 5-600 more in sales for both frames, not including potential neo versions.

Both Airbus and Boeing go to Stables and by more order books for the 787/A350???

WayexTDI wrote:

kimimm19 wrote:

StTim wrote:

The current order book for both the 787 and a350 is just that current. These planes will continue selling for the next 15 to 20 years. Just look at the A330 as an example.

You seem so sure, though the vast majority of the planes that will be replaced with these next-gen aircraft already have orders placed...

Maybe there's another couple hundred left that need replacing but is there really that much growth for these to keep selling past the mid 2020 mark in their current spec...?

Well, IF the orders dry out that quickly (which remains to be seen), Airbus and Boeing will tweak the A350 & 787 and sell many more.

Will airlines really buy 'many more' because of 'tweaks' which will most likely come from engines so soon after getting them? In four years the oldest 787 will be about 12 years old.

That would be Emirates style lifespan, and I just don't see it.

I am going to say this once and then duck and run for cover.

Boeing still need to sell a reasonable number more 787's to be able to fully pay down (accounting wise) the deferred costs.


p.s - I think they will do this which I doubted at one point.

kimimm19 wrote:

WayexTDI wrote:

kimimm19 wrote:

You seem so sure, though the vast majority of the planes that will be replaced with these next-gen aircraft already have orders placed...

Maybe there's another couple hundred left that need replacing but is there really that much growth for these to keep selling past the mid 2020 mark in their current spec...?

Well, IF the orders dry out that quickly (which remains to be seen), Airbus and Boeing will tweak the A350 & 787 and sell many more.

Will airlines really buy 'many more' because of 'tweaks' which will most likely come from engines so soon after getting them? In four years the oldest 787 will be about 12 years old.

That would be Emirates style lifespan, and I just don't see it.

Why did you start this thread with a question if you're brushing aside every single response? Your opinion is that Airbus and Boeing won't sell many more A350's or 787's from now on and thus close down the line once the backlog is built; why ask then???

Another question could be when the 787 rate is eventually reduced to single digit
monthly production, will Boeing move all 787 production to a single factory?

And if so, would we see all 787 production moved to SC?

Or, perhaps the future 797 takes over the Charleston plant
and Everett keeps their 787 line open?

WayexTDI wrote:

Why did you start this thread with a question if you're brushing aside every single response? Your opinion is that Airbus and Boeing won't sell many more A350's or 787's from now on and thus close down the line once the backlog is built; why ask then???

We are having a discussion. So far, no one has really had much insight other than it'll keep selling at various amounts. There's a debate when exactly the orderbooks are going to be completed.

I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm saying I highly doubt that these two aircarft are going to keep selling like hotcakes for the next ten years and that it'll probably be too soon for a NEO, so given that, what's going to happen?

kimimm19 wrote:

StTim wrote:

The current order book for both the 787 and a350 is just that current. These planes will continue selling for the next 15 to 20 years. Just look at the A330 as an example.

You seem so sure, though the vast majority of the planes that will be replaced with these next-gen aircraft already have orders placed...

Maybe there's another couple hundred left that need replacing but is there really that much growth for these to keep selling past the mid 2020 mark in their current spec...?

Most of the A330s that are currently flying will have to be replaced in the mid 2020s, most operators have yet to place orders for these replacements. The aviation sector will also continue to grow, creating new orders for the 787 and A350.

So orders will keep on coming in.

Any upgrades to the 787 and A350 will mainly depend on the availability of new engine technology.

kimimm19 wrote:

I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm saying I highly doubt that these two aircarft are going to keep selling like hotcakes for the next ten years and that it'll probably be too soon for a NEO, so given that, what's going to happen?

The same thing that happens with any other program, production slowly winds down. I don't understand why this is not apparent.

Where did you get this phrase "orderbooks completed"?

PiPs will keep these selling.
787 is undergoing :
a cost reduction PIP (manufacturing)
a commonality PiP (788).
a weight reduction PiP
A MTOW PiP

Future PiPs:. GE is ready for CMC introduction (in GE9x)

A350 is undergoing
A cost reduction PiP
Weight reduction PiP (Titanium replacing Aluminum due to dramatic drop in 3D printing costs, also happening in 787).

The answer is, will there be enough economic growth to sell more?

Boeing seems to have more short term slots due to the production ramp. The question is, did they cut costs enough to fill the order book?

Lightsaber

As orders begin to slow and technology advances, Boeing will probably look at upgrading the engines and introducing a 787NG, similar to what was done with the 777 and the GE-90-110/115 re-engine. We could also see a 787-F variant introduced along the way. But the 787 is a solid design will sell in its current iteration for at least 5-10 more years.

what an inane thread supposition.. just one step short of asking what will replace the 797 (or Airbus's next debacle) before it even comes to fruition. Aircraft manufacturing is not a continual growth line on a chart, order books are fluid- that is why production schedules only go so far out. . an OEM must deal with the ebb and flow of the needs and profitability of the customer airlines who are a very erratic base to use for projections. Airlines come and go, merge and expand i to new markets and the biggest and oldest plan become middling and defunct quickly. however people still think they need to fly so there will always be a market. predicting like predicting the weather.. sometimes you're right and then a major plane buyer folds almost overnight.

kimimm19 wrote:

Will airlines really buy 'many more' because of 'tweaks'

Tweaks add up over time. Compare an original A330-300 from 1994 to a brand new one.

kimimm19 wrote:

WayexTDI wrote:

Why did you start this thread with a question if you're brushing aside every single response? Your opinion is that Airbus and Boeing won't sell many more A350's or 787's from now on and thus close down the line once the backlog is built; why ask then???

We are having a discussion. So far, no one has really had much insight other than it'll keep selling at various amounts. There's a debate when exactly the orderbooks are going to be completed.

I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm saying I highly doubt that these two aircarft are going to keep selling like hotcakes for the next ten years and that it'll probably be too soon for a NEO, so given that, what's going to happen?

You seem to want someone to tell you what you want to hear, that no more will be built after the current backlogs. Remember A & B are likely still delivering some original orders. There will be top-off orders. There are airlines that still fly 767's and older 330's that will want to upgrade. They will never have the same backlog they had at the beginning, but both will be purchased well into the 20's.

kimimm19 wrote:

WayexTDI wrote:

Why did you start this thread with a question if you're brushing aside every single response? Your opinion is that Airbus and Boeing won't sell many more A350's or 787's from now on and thus close down the line once the backlog is built; why ask then???

We are having a discussion. So far, no one has really had much insight other than it'll keep selling at various amounts. There's a debate when exactly the orderbooks are going to be completed.

No one knows when the order book is going to be completed.

787 are replacing older 777 or A330 as two recent orders by Korean Air and Air New Zealand show. There is no reason why Boeing can't have a production run of 3,000 787 by 2030. Qantas has many more 787-9 to order, if you believe hey will order only 14 double or triple that. IAG has many more 787 in its future too.

Sooner787 wrote:

Another question could be when the 787 rate is eventually reduced to single digit
monthly production, will Boeing move all 787 production to a single factory?

And if so, would we see all 787 production moved to SC?

Or, perhaps the future 797 takes over the Charleston plant
and Everett keeps their 787 line open?

Don't think the last one is doable since the 787-10 can only be built in Charleston as far as I know.

I have been wondering for months when Boeing is going to announce a production rate decrease on the 787. Considering soft orders on the books and long lead production items, I think they will have to decrease the rate soon...within the next 12 months.

Keep in mind that while 767, 340, and 772 replacements are wrapping up, there are a bunch of 330CEO and 77E (330ceo are still produced, last 77E are about 6 years old) aircraft that will need to be replaced in the next decade. The 77W will turn 20 in less than 4 years. That is great news for the A350. I wouldn’t be surprised if both got NEO’d in the 2020s. 777 got a major update less than 10 years after entering service.

2,000 to 3,000 787 and A350 each, with current engines. Another 2,000 to 3,000 each with a new engine in the 2030 to 2050 time frame. Then once those orderbooks are done, they will shut down production.

I'm assuming a geared turbofan re-engine is a given. If that occurs by 2030 is the timeline to watch.

It's valid to wonder where the industry is headed. A lot of new widebodies are joinng the worldwide fleet at a record pace.
The same could be said about the narrowbodies.

A large number of previous generation aircraft are awaiting replacement.
At the same time, revenue passenger kilometers are expected to double within the next decade.

There have been almost 9000 A320's produced to date with about 8000 remaining in operation. By 2029, there will be a need for double that amount, so the current huge backlog of the A320neo is still insufficient to cover the sole growth of the market let alone any retirements.

I think that the traditional airlines have been too conservative in the past few years, especially in the markets where the growth is expected to happen. New entrants will start to grow all over the place.

I also expect a shift to less premium configurations and an attempt to "deseasonalise" traffic (not fares) through more marked fare extremes and a general review of yield management.

The shift to less premium has already started, with airlines densifying their economy class products, but the next step will be a reduction of premium seats IMO.

So more widebodies will be needed and not only B787, A330, A350, but also B777, B748, A380.
Unfortunately, the aircraft manufacturers are focussing too much on short-term visions and are missing the big picture.

Also, if you look at the situation in Europe, the skies are already saturating. You miss your departure slot because boarding isn't smooth and end up waiting for an hour for another departure slot. In the past month, this happened to me on MOST of the 8 flights that I have taken.

I'm known to cheer for the A380, but I'm looking at the general picture and can't help but shakr my heaf at the Airbus willingness to terminate it.

This is a question Boeing will be asking themselves, especially if they talk about the MoM. A new smaller widebody with TATL range would reduce 787 sales by a lot.

SteelChair wrote:

I have been wondering for months when Boeing is going to announce a production rate decrease on the 787. Considering soft orders on the books and long lead production items, I think they will have to decrease the rate soon...within the next 12 months.

Boeing at present has two programs they need to start, both have been delayed for various reasons, the NMA and the NSA.
If they continue producing the 787 at the current rate one of two things will happen, they get more orders or they complete the backlog.
Completing the backlog allows them to allocate production resources to the two programs which based on their nature, will require higher initial production rates than the 787. A reduction in rate will occur but not because Boeing is trying to stretch the production run but because the majority of clients have the frames they need. If CFRP fuses are not going to be used for the NMA or NSA, all 787 production for example can be moved to a single site freeing up space and resources.

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:

There are multiple industry groups within the OEMs and third-parties that do a ton of market research of forecasts.

Are they the same groups that forecasted rosy skies for the A380, B748, and B777x? That consulted on the multuple attempts at the A350 before Airbus got it right?

Just because they have a lot of education and smarts doesn't make them correct all the time. In fact, they're often wrong, and they still get paid, even when they are massively wrong to the tune of billions.

StTim wrote:

I am going to say this once and then duck and run for cover.

Boeing still need to sell a reasonable number more 787's to be able to fully pay down (accounting wise) the deferred costs.


p.s - I think they will do this which I doubted at one point.

isnt the breakeven point at like 1500 frames? they've almost hit that, and there's still decades of life left in the 787

musman9853 wrote:

StTim wrote:

I am going to say this once and then duck and run for cover.

Boeing still need to sell a reasonable number more 787's to be able to fully pay down (accounting wise) the deferred costs.


p.s - I think they will do this which I doubted at one point.

isnt the breakeven point at like 1500 frames? they've almost hit that, and there's still decades of life left in the 787

I have lost track of that. I think that may be the current Accounting Block and, from memory, the last time I looked I think they will need a few more that that but it it all within reach so as I say it is almost a nothing to see here now.

Sorry I brought it up really.