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scbriml
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Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Thu Aug 08, 2019 12:43 pm

VV wrote:
First I am not sure the MTOW increase if retrofit table to the current fleet.
Even if it is the case there will be induced cost for recertification of individual aircraft that also include the documentation. It it not just "paper certification" there's a lot to do and it costs a lot of man-hours.

Would an airline spend money on something they do not need?

Now, let's assume they want to do the very hypothetical routes you mentioned. Do they need to retrofit all aircraft in the fleet to achieve the high MTOW? That's costs.


The additional MTOW is very unlikely to be available as a retrofit. If you accept that, then your other questions become moot.

VV wrote:
Do they want to have a subfleet with hight MTOW? That's two sets of everything.

I still think it doesn't make sense for Delta to have the A220 with the high MTOW, especially when they have other narrowbody to address other exotic things you mentioned.


Clearly Delta sees a need for the higher MTOW and has ordered accordingly. It may be that the additional cost for the higher MTOW version is something they're prepared to pay in return for the extra flexibility it gives them. They clearly see a benefit, otherwise they wouldn't have ordered them.

It appears to make sense to them (which is all that matters).
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lightsaber
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Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Thu Aug 08, 2019 3:02 pm

VV wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Why? They and KE were two airlines asking for it.

Perhaps DL is going to connect Alaska and southern foreign destinations? Perhaps Caribean to further.

...

Lightsaber


Why? It's very simple.

First I am not sure the MTOW increase if retrofit table to the current fleet.
Even if it is the case there will be induced cost for recertification of individual aircraft that also include the documentation. It it not just "paper certification" there's a lot to do and it costs a lot of man-hours.

Would an airline spend money on something they do not need?

Now, let's assume they want to do the very hypothetical routes you mentioned. Do they need to retrofit all aircraft in the fleet to achieve the high MTOW? That's costs.

Do they want to have a subfleet with hight MTOW? That's two sets of everything.

I still think it doesn't make sense for Delta to have the A220 with the high MTOW, especially when they have other narrowbody to address other exotic things you mentioned.

Please remember that yields usually drops with stage length. You would prefer have bigger aircraft for long routes.

The MTOW increase was analysis/license. To my knowledge, there is no physical change to the aircraft, just buying the right paper and updating the maintenance plan.

Delta requested the update. So obviously it makes sense to them.

As an AirFrance thread, it makes sense to me for them to buy it.

Other than fractionally higher ATC fees and the licence/maintenance costs, why wouldn't DL buy the flexibility? Why wouldn't AF?

Every MTOW increase I ever worked sold far better than expectations. This one seems to, as we Americans say, hit the ball out of the park. Clean out of the park...

CFRP is wonderful. It is always built first with too much margin, then MTOW is increased.

AirFrance would be able to use the highest MTOW for great flexibility to/from Africa.

Just as AirFrance would benefit from a higher MTOW 787-10, possibly their next order.

When someone has already paid for something, it is best to ask why they did instead of claiming it makes no sense. The MTOW increase for the A220 is in such demand a future increase, with structural changes, only makes sense.

Before my very first aerospace engineering meeting with a customer, my manager warned us "smile when they throw money our way and tell them the advantages of buying the PiP. Never tell them they don't need it as we always find other customers willing to buy that PiP." In that meeting we convinced the customer to give us $500,000 more profit per engine. Later the customer showed me how it increased their profit $500,000/year per aircraft with the PiP.

Delta knows how to make money. If they want a MTOW increase, they get it. I have no idea if they paid a fee or if it was agreed to as part of a top off order.

Lightsaber
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VV
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Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Thu Aug 08, 2019 3:12 pm

Well, if they want to pay for something very hypothetical in the future then it's okay for me.
I won't spend anything since that's not my airline.

I just find it extremely strange a cost conscious airline would do that.
 
PHLCVGAMTK
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Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Thu Aug 08, 2019 6:16 pm

lightsaber wrote:
This is why the A380 is going. The last seats sell too cheap. The same market forces work on the narrowbody market, just with different constants in the equation.

P2P is here. Long haul (787/A350), mid haul (xLR, possible 797), or short (now out to 3300nm still air).

AF must rationalize their long haul network. Triangle routes are despised by the highest yield customers. Get them off private jets, back into J by offering a competitive route structure that avoids less than daily frequency and stopping points.

It sounds like AF's management is waking up to their primary revenue issues. They'll need to do a lot more on costs, but this is an encouraging start.


It's worth noting that another consequence of the A380 and its yields for AF, is that it's very late to the party in terms of fragmenting its TATL nonstops. AF and its JV partners do not fly nonstop from Paris to EWR (!), PHL (seasonal DL ended 2017), PIT (seasonal DL ended 2018), and other large and midsized destinations that sit in the heart of B757/A321XLR range. The complaint is often made here, that the three big TATL JVs are bad for competition; if we take that complaint at face value, how much worse is it when one of the three just doesn't show up? Not having to protect the yields on the A380 flights out of JFK won't be a magic bullet, but it will make adding spokes throughout the Northeast US much more feasible.
 
wrongwayup
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Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Thu Aug 08, 2019 9:59 pm

VV wrote:
Well, if they want to pay for something very hypothetical in the future then it's okay for me.
I won't spend anything since that's not my airline.

I just find it extremely strange a cost conscious airline would do that.


MTOW is all about revenue generation. You're correct that yields fall at longer ranges, but so do costs. And flying one passenger direct versus between the same O&D pair connecting, is far cheaper, especially when an A220-100 has the same economcs as the NGs/CEOs (to say nothing of the RJs) connecting between hubs. Delta knows what they're doing here.
 
VV
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Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Thu Aug 08, 2019 10:37 pm

wrongwayup wrote:
VV wrote:
Well, if they want to pay for something very hypothetical in the future then it's okay for me.
I won't spend anything since that's not my airline.

I just find it extremely strange a cost conscious airline would do that.


MTOW is all about revenue generation. You're correct that yields fall at longer ranges, but so do costs. And flying one passenger direct versus between the same O&D pair connecting, is far cheaper, especially when an A220-100 has the same economcs as the NGs/CEOs (to say nothing of the RJs) connecting between hubs. Delta knows what they're doing here.


It is about potential revenue generation. The reality is that very-very few Delta's routes are above 2,000 nm. In addition they already have a lot of narrowbody to do those long missions.

The dream about thin long routes below 150 seat is just a dream. Small aircraft are mostly for short distances. The yield goes down quickly such that the only way to get a profitable "thin" route is to have an aircraft with high fare. I am not sure the one or two hours extra journey is worth the hundreds of dollars to spend. In addition those high yield aircraft will need to have specific configuration.

You say that Delta knows what they are doing. I sincerely hope they know what they are doing. This said, I find it extremely strange they would make their operation more expensive and more complicate with possible double documentation and sub-fleet.
Again, if they want to do it then it is okay for me. It is not my money, but I would find it a little bit stupid considering the navigation fees and landing fees that would potentially increase.

But hey, it is really not my money.
 
ZPhoto
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Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Thu Aug 08, 2019 10:39 pm

About the A220-500 stretch... would it be a 100% Airbus plane or 50.01%? Would Bombardier have a stake in the new plane?
 
jbs2886
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Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Thu Aug 08, 2019 11:08 pm

VV wrote:
wrongwayup wrote:
VV wrote:
Well, if they want to pay for something very hypothetical in the future then it's okay for me.
I won't spend anything since that's not my airline.

I just find it extremely strange a cost conscious airline would do that.


MTOW is all about revenue generation. You're correct that yields fall at longer ranges, but so do costs. And flying one passenger direct versus between the same O&D pair connecting, is far cheaper, especially when an A220-100 has the same economcs as the NGs/CEOs (to say nothing of the RJs) connecting between hubs. Delta knows what they're doing here.


It is about potential revenue generation. The reality is that very-very few Delta's routes are above 2,000 nm. In addition they already have a lot of narrowbody to do those long missions.

The dream about thin long routes below 150 seat is just a dream. Small aircraft are mostly for short distances. The yield goes down quickly such that the only way to get a profitable "thin" route is to have an aircraft with high fare. I am not sure the one or two hours extra journey is worth the hundreds of dollars to spend. In addition those high yield aircraft will need to have specific configuration.

You say that Delta knows what they are doing. I sincerely hope they know what they are doing. This said, I find it extremely strange they would make their operation more expensive and more complicate with possible double documentation and sub-fleet.
Again, if they want to do it then it is okay for me. It is not my money, but I would find it a little bit stupid considering the navigation fees and landing fees that would potentially increase.

But hey, it is really not my money.


We get it. You don’t agree. Please stop hijacking the AF thread to discuss DL.
 
wrongwayup
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Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Thu Aug 08, 2019 11:32 pm

VV wrote:

It is about potential revenue generation. The reality is that very-very few Delta's routes are above 2,000 nm. In addition they already have a lot of narrowbody to do those long missions.

The dream about thin long routes below 150 seat is just a dream. Small aircraft are mostly for short distances. The yield goes down quickly such that the only way to get a profitable "thin" route is to have an aircraft with high fare. I am not sure the one or two hours extra journey is worth the hundreds of dollars to spend. In addition those high yield aircraft will need to have specific configuration.

You say that Delta knows what they are doing. I sincerely hope they know what they are doing. This said, I find it extremely strange they would make their operation more expensive and more complicate with possible double documentation and sub-fleet.
Again, if they want to do it then it is okay for me. It is not my money, but I would find it a little bit stupid considering the navigation fees and landing fees that would potentially increase.

But hey, it is really not my money.


All revenue is "potential" until you go and fly it. Small aircraft have been mostly for short distances in the past because there was never a small aircraft with the capability to fly any further than 2000nm or so in the first place. This is all about new opportunity. Revenue and profit that was either not flying at all, or flying on your competitor. Yes - there will be some traffic that Delta had been previously carrying as connecting traffic, but at current 88% load factors they're already spilling more than you'll cannibalize and so could use the capacity.

Passengers want frequent, direct flights - they will pick a direct flight on your airline over connecting on another and pay more to do so. I shouldn't have to cite sources here, this is fairly well established fact. The case in point is the 787 It blew open direct connectivity smaller market flying for a lot of carriers. Many who ordered it to replace the 767, ended up keeping the 67s and flew the 87s on new markets. Ben Smith saw this at AC and has now committed two world-leading airlines to this concept on the A220. David Neeleman is launching an airline entirely based on this concept. Compare airBaltic's route map with what they flew with the 737 Classics - Abu Dhabi is a LONG way from Riga.

I think you're missing the forest for the trees here, the cost of weight is really insignificant in the grand scheme of things. The cost to the airline to go from basic to the highest weight is <10% of the capital cost of an airplane. Delta's capital cost of everything in the entire airline, plus aircraft rents (i.e. the sum of the depreciation and amortization and aircraft rent line items from their latest earnings report) is <8% of total operating cost. We are talking about literal fractions of fractions of the cost of running an airline.

Network airlines are masters of managing complexity. When you see inside a modern operations control center for one of the big three, it becomes immediately obvious. There are also commercial ways to mitigate complexity, for example a pay-per-use weight agreement from the OEM. Ditto with weight-based charges like enroute and landing fees.

I really don't understand why you're digging in on an opinion that differs so drastically from a decision made by a team of experienced professionals with access to information that is more accurate, complete, and precise than yours.
 
T4thH
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Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Fri Aug 09, 2019 12:02 am

VV wrote:
wrongwayup wrote:
VV wrote:
Well, if they want to pay for something very hypothetical in the future then it's okay for me.
I won't spend anything since that's not my airline.

I just find it extremely strange a cost conscious airline would do that.


MTOW is all about revenue generation. You're correct that yields fall at longer ranges, but so do costs. And flying one passenger direct versus between the same O&D pair connecting, is far cheaper, especially when an A220-100 has the same economcs as the NGs/CEOs (to say nothing of the RJs) connecting between hubs. Delta knows what they're doing here.


It is about potential revenue generation. The reality is that very-very few Delta's routes are above 2,000 nm. In addition they already have a lot of narrowbody to do those long missions.

The dream about thin long routes below 150 seat is just a dream. Small aircraft are mostly for short distances. The yield goes down quickly such that the only way to get a profitable "thin" route is to have an aircraft with high fare. I am not sure the one or two hours extra journey is worth the hundreds of dollars to spend. In addition those high yield aircraft will need to have specific configuration.

You say that Delta knows what they are doing. I sincerely hope they know what they are doing. This said, I find it extremely strange they would make their operation more expensive and more complicate with possible double documentation and sub-fleet.
Again, if they want to do it then it is okay for me. It is not my money, but I would find it a little bit stupid considering the navigation fees and landing fees that would potentially increase.

But hey, it is really not my money.


Sorry, but are you aware, with increasing MTOW, you have either to pay more, or less? It depends on the airport. As example, Germany.
"Regional airport":
Nuremberg airport: Here the increase of weight will cost more. The 2.4 t increase will cost 4.18 € per t (started at total MTOW) more for a start and landing (So start and landing together little more than 16€, if you reach 3 t more, than 24€). Gateway fees and out field fees are also MTOW depended, but only if you park more than 90 min at gateways and more than 4 h at outfield, less is free of charge.
https://www.airport-nuernberg.de/flughafenentgelte-770d9326c17c504a
Only in German.

International airport.
Frankfurt airport. By bad luck, the A220-100 with MTOW increase will be still little bit to light, only by few hundred kg. With more than 66 t, you have not to pay the start and landing (fee once for start and once for landing). A220-300 is free of charge of start and landing fee as MTOW is above 66 t (with and without MTOW increase)
The fees for noise level and NOx level are several times more important. Noise level: it starts per movement with around 80 € and ends up around at 22.000 €. and during evening and night it gets more expensive. So the noiseless and NOx less A220 family will have such a big benefit....So do not fly with an AN124 to Frankfurt it is in the highest of all classes. A start in the middle of the night will cost 66.000 and a landing again the same. (only the noise level + additional all other fees).
Landing and start fees according MTOW:
more than 66 t: free of charge
35 t to 66 t: around 34 €
15 t to 35 t:: around 137 €
up to 15 t: around 226.4 €
https://www.fraport.de/content/fraport/de/business-partner/airlines-cargo/flughafenentgelte.html
*.pdf*s are in German and English.

International Airport Munich:
Start and landing-fees are MTOW dependent. 2.77 € per started t. So something around 11 € more for start and landing together (or around 16 €, if increased MTOW will be more than 3 t started). Also here, fees regarding noise and NOx are several times more important.
https://www.munich-airport.de/flughafenentgelte-1311759
*.pdf*s are in German and English.
 
chiad
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Air France firms up 60 A220s

Wed Dec 18, 2019 4:28 pm

Air France firms up 60 A220-300s from July's MoU.

https://simpleflying.com/air-france-klm ... rim-order/
 
SEU
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Re: Air France firms up 60 A220s

Wed Dec 18, 2019 5:23 pm

chiad wrote:
Air France firms up 60 A220-300s from July's MoU.

https://simpleflying.com/air-france-klm ... rim-order/



Absolutely buzzing about this, congratulations to Airbus and AF. Another major carrier has the A220 on their books and making it a major part of their future plans. I love the A220 and being based in MAN, I am 100% sure they will use the A220s into MAN every day.
 
TObound
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Re: Update: AF firms order for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Wed Dec 18, 2019 5:39 pm

I dunno why AF didn't order the 321N and XLR with the 220s.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Update: AF firms order for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Wed Dec 18, 2019 6:00 pm

I'm very excited about the A220 at AF. It is my opinion they can increase frequency on many routes if they buy the highest MTOW version.

I'm also excited on their evolving widebody strategy.

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LY777
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Re: Update: AF firms order for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Wed Dec 18, 2019 6:05 pm

Are the engines issues solved on the A220s?
Flown:717,727,732,733,734,735,738,73H,742/744/748,752,753,762/2ER/763/3ER,772/77E/773/77W, 788, 789, DC8,DC10,E190,E195,MD83,MD88, L1011, A3B2,A319,A320-100/200,A321,A332/A333,A343,A388
 
sabby
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Re: Update: AF firms order for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Thu Dec 19, 2019 7:07 am

I always thought AF was the perfect customer for A220 given their large A318/319 fleet. Congratulations to AF and Airbus, the A220 would like really nice in AF colors.
 
LifelinerOne
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Re: Update: AF firms order for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Thu Dec 19, 2019 7:42 am

TObound wrote:
I dunno why AF didn't order the 321N and XLR with the 220s.


Because the Group hasn't decided on the narrowbody type yet and is still studying possibilities. They are doing this for the whole Group (AF, KLM and Transavia).

The reason that the Group went ahead with the A220 for AF is due to a more urgent need to replace their A318s and A319s.

Cheers! :wave:
Only Those Who Sleep Don't Make Mistakes
 
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scbriml
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Re: Update: AF firms order for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Thu Dec 19, 2019 8:54 am

Congrats to AF. Those will be great replacements for A318s and A319s.

I expect some naysayers will claim the A220 is now ‘stealing’ orders from the A320 in the same way the A330neo is with the A350.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
Kikko19
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Re: Update: AF firms order for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Thu Dec 19, 2019 9:33 am

LifelinerOne wrote:
TObound wrote:
I dunno why AF didn't order the 321N and XLR with the 220s.


Because the Group hasn't decided on the narrowbody type yet and is still studying possibilities. They are doing this for the whole Group (AF, KLM and Transavia).

The reason that the Group went ahead with the A220 for AF is due to a more urgent need to replace their A318s and A319s.

Cheers! :wave:

we can guess: AF for a32x and KL for b737 max. (I believe the max won't fly again but they can open a hotel chain in the parking lots worldwide).
 
FromCDGtoSYD
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Re: Update: AF firms order for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Thu Dec 19, 2019 9:34 am

scbriml wrote:
I expect some naysayers will claim the A220 is now ‘stealing’ orders from the A320 in the same way the A330neo is with the A350.


"If You Don't Cannibalize Yourself, Someone Else Will." - Steve Jobs
 
T4thH
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Re: Update: AF firms order for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Thu Dec 19, 2019 12:16 pm

FromCDGtoSYD wrote:
scbriml wrote:
I expect some naysayers will claim the A220 is now ‘stealing’ orders from the A320 in the same way the A330neo is with the A350.


"If You Don't Cannibalize Yourself, Someone Else Will." - Steve Jobs


...steel orders from a till end of the A320 family production line most likely sold out jet. The A320 family is more or less sold out the next 10 years, next production slots are available in 2025. It can be expected that the A320 family follow up clean sheet design will come around with an EIS 2032 to 2035, mass production start around 2033/34 to 2035/36. We will see more orders for the A320 the next 10 years, so most likely, the A320 will be effectively sold out even post start of production of the FU clean sheet design.

So every A220 which will be ordered (and build), in best case an A319 Neo or A320 Neo will be build less and this will free a slot for a more value A321 member. So it will be a win/win, so one more single aisle jet can be build by Airbus (and not by a competitor like Boeing or Comac) till closure of the A320 family production line and a slot will be free for a higher margin product (A321 family member).

What the hell someone want more?
 
SELMER40
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Re: Update: AF firms order for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Thu Dec 19, 2019 7:54 pm

Will the FAL be in France?
Teaching this old dog a new trick
 
T4thH
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Re: Update: AF firms order for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Thu Dec 19, 2019 10:07 pm

SELMER40 wrote:
Will the FAL be in France?

No. Mirabel in Montreal.
 
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TheRedBaron
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Re: Update: AF firms order for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Fri Dec 20, 2019 10:02 pm

I wonder what will AF fly to Mexico MMMX to cover the lost seats on the big A380. I flew 14 days ago in Expanded cattle class (known as Y plus), and the Plane was full, my sources tell that flight is seldom lower than 85% full including F and C...So i guess its a money making machine. Using a 777-300ER will be a huge downgrade in capacity...

I bet AF will keep a few Whales flying for at least 2 more years. (2025)

Best Regards
TRB
The best seat in a Plane is the Jumpseat.
 
jbs2886
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Re: Update: AF firms order for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Fri Dec 20, 2019 10:39 pm

TheRedBaron wrote:
I wonder what will AF fly to Mexico MMMX to cover the lost seats on the big A380. I flew 14 days ago in Expanded cattle class (known as Y plus), and the Plane was full, my sources tell that flight is seldom lower than 85% full including F and C...So i guess its a money making machine. Using a 777-300ER will be a huge downgrade in capacity...

I bet AF will keep a few Whales flying for at least 2 more years. (2025)

Best Regards
TRB


Or they increase frequency or just take a major yield boost.
 
KlimaBXsst
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Re: Update: AF firms order for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Sat Dec 21, 2019 8:16 pm

Maybe this means Air France will go with a traditional 2+2 business / first class configuration on the A220,

rather than leaving the middle seat open on the the 3+3 A318 I guess?
Aesthetically the A 340 got it right!
 
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zeke
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Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Sun Dec 22, 2019 9:06 am

lightsaber wrote:
The MTOW increase was analysis/license. To my knowledge, there is no physical change to the aircraft, just buying the right paper and updating the maintenance plan.


We have added W/Vs after purchasing the aircraft the process involved is different for every airframe. Some require gear to be replaced, some tyre/brakes, sometimes engine modifications, sometimes airframe modifications. Sometimes is it a pure paper exercise.
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
Ellofiend
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Re: Update: AF firms order for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Thu Dec 26, 2019 8:19 am

In what order might we expect the AF380 routes to drop? I expect MEX and JFK would be among the last, where in the pole could we see PVG or LAX?

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