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Re: AF to order A220, replace A380 with 787 or A350?

Posted: Thu Jul 18, 2019 2:22 pm
by jetlanta
VV wrote:
If the news is correct then Air France would take A321neo and A220-300 instead of A321neo, A320neo and A319neo. What happens to the "family concept"?

We can then legitimately ask the question on the fate of the A319neo, although we know the A319neo with CFM Leap-1A engines already obtained its type certificate and the A319neo with PW1100G-JM engines is currently in flight test.

Would other airlines follow Air France's example?


Delta is already doing this.

The "family concept" is overrated as an airline achieve massive scale. For large, network carriers, it is more important to have the right-sized aircraft with the right economics. A large fleet of A220s operated over decades, saves far more money than commonality does. This is why no carriers are buying the A319neo (or 737MAX). In the case of the A220 versus the A319neo, the benefit the "family concept" provides is overwhelmed by the economics. As Airbus gets A220 costs down, this will only intensify.

Re: AF to order A220, replace A380 with 787 or A350?

Posted: Thu Jul 18, 2019 2:59 pm
by MrBren
According to the below article, AF is about to order planes in the A320neo family (to replace about 40 old A320) and up to 50-70 A220 (to replace about 50 A318 and A319).

https://www.latribune.fr/depeches/reuters/KCN1UD24G/airbus-proche-de-conclure-une-grosse-commande-avec-air-france.html

In English: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-airbus-airfrance-idUSKCN1UD21G

Re: AF to order A220, replace A380?

Posted: Thu Jul 18, 2019 3:09 pm
by JannEejit
inkjet7 wrote:
behramjee wrote:
A
For the A380 replacement either A351s or B779s would be ordered and my money would be on the A351 MTOW version.


AF loves their 777's. They have 70 of them (including the freighters). For fleet commonality a large 777 order would not surprise me at all.
KL's home base is slot restricted and even if a few more slots become available it will soon be slot restricted again. So they likely want/need 777's as well.


View slot availablity and congestion at AMS in mind, maybe KLM should take on the AF A380 fleet ?

Re: AF to order A220, replace A380 with 787 or A350?

Posted: Thu Jul 18, 2019 4:12 pm
by mig17
According to this, an AF A35K order fitting a brand new interior is imminent : https://www.deplacementspros.com/La-fin ... 54492.html

Re: AF to order A220, replace A380 with 787 or A350?

Posted: Thu Jul 18, 2019 5:45 pm
by VV
jetlanta wrote:
VV wrote:
If the news is correct then Air France would take A321neo and A220-300 instead of A321neo, A320neo and A319neo. What happens to the "family concept"?

We can then legitimately ask the question on the fate of the A319neo, although we know the A319neo with CFM Leap-1A engines already obtained its type certificate and the A319neo with PW1100G-JM engines is currently in flight test.

Would other airlines follow Air France's example?


Delta is already doing this.

The "family concept" is overrated as an airline achieve massive scale. For large, network carriers, it is more important to have the right-sized aircraft with the right economics. A large fleet of A220s operated over decades, saves far more money than commonality does. This is why no carriers are buying the A319neo (or 737MAX). In the case of the A220 versus the A319neo, the benefit the "family concept" provides is overwhelmed by the economics. As Airbus gets A220 costs down, this will only intensify.


The question about the future of the A319neo is then legitimate.

Re: AF to order A220, replace A380 with 787 or A350?

Posted: Thu Jul 18, 2019 6:05 pm
by rrbsztk
MrBren wrote:
According to the below article, AF is about to order planes in the A320neo family (to replace about 40 old A320) and up to 50-70 A220 (to replace about 50 A318 and A319).

https://www.latribune.fr/depeches/reuters/KCN1UD24G/airbus-proche-de-conclure-une-grosse-commande-avec-air-france.html

In English: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-airbus-airfrance-idUSKCN1UD21G


Thanks for the link and glad to see it could be 50+. I had been looking and all i could find was fliegerfaust earlier this year rumored 20+20 options and yesterday i found a French blog/article saying 30 or 40 (per google translate). Any order is a nice positive but more A220s is even nicer.

Re: AF to order A220, replace A380?

Posted: Thu Jul 18, 2019 6:23 pm
by inkjet7
JannEejit wrote:
View slot availablity and congestion at AMS in mind, maybe KLM should take on the AF A380 fleet ?


I don't think so! 777X maybe but the A380 is on it's way out at AF/KLM.

Re: AF to order A220, replace A380 with 787 or A350?

Posted: Thu Jul 18, 2019 6:57 pm
by ArchGuy1
The 777X would be the best plane to replace the A380.

Re: AF to order A220, replace A380 with 787 or A350?

Posted: Thu Jul 18, 2019 8:32 pm
by Amiga500
ArchGuy1 wrote:
The 777X would be the best plane to replace the A380.


In terms of passengers carried, definitely the 779 would be the best replacement. But, a 787-10 or A359 might be better in terms of yield (& profit).

Re: AF to order A220, replace A380 with 787 or A350?

Posted: Thu Jul 18, 2019 8:36 pm
by Amiga500
jetlanta wrote:
The "family concept" is overrated as an airline achieve massive scale. For large, network carriers, it is more important to have the right-sized aircraft with the right economics. A large fleet of A220s operated over decades, saves far more money than commonality does. This is why no carriers are buying the A319neo (or 737MAX). In the case of the A220 versus the A319neo, the benefit the "family concept" provides is overwhelmed by the economics. As Airbus gets A220 costs down, this will only intensify.


It was previously reckoned a (type) fleet size of around 20 was required for there to be no penalty for operating that type (relative to an alternate family derivative).

Obviously, as the performance differential between the standalone type and the derivative increases, you'd expect that number to come down. Between the CS300 and A319n the gap is pretty large.

Re: AF to order A220, replace A380 with 787 or A350?

Posted: Thu Jul 18, 2019 8:51 pm
by speedbird52
Polot wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
chiad wrote:

This is so spot on.


Did you guys get your education in economics in the 1950s Soviet Union? Apart from chronically underserved areas (for which it can provide subsidies) the government has no reason to tell AF where and how often it should fly. Did you miss the wave(s) of deregulation of the last 40 years?

A tax which increases ticket price will decrease demand. If you haven't taken Econ 101 at the university level maybe you should.

Aside from that, it is quite a leap in logic to assume that forcing airlines to have less flights= no effect on price for consumers. If you try to restrict flights in the end it is the consumer that pays, no matter who you are trying to “punish.” There is a reason flights are cheaper after deregulation. You can’t have your cake and eat it too.

If you want to target aviation to reduce emissions to combat climate change sure go ahead, it is a noble cause. But you can’t have the current cheap tickets that results in people opting to fly for a quick vacation or whatever as well. You are going to have to accept more expensive flights, so people are less motivated to fly.

Larger aircraft can make up for the decrease in number of flights

Re: AF to order A220, replace A380 with 787 or A350?

Posted: Fri Jul 19, 2019 12:06 pm
by oschkosch
German media says 50-70 A220 order from AF on the way, to be placed by end of August at the latest. They also estimate same amount of A320/321 (NEO) will be ordered.

https://www.aerotelegraph.com/bis-zu-70 ... air-france

Re: AF to order A220, replace A380 with 787 or A350?

Posted: Fri Jul 19, 2019 1:08 pm
by JeremyB
TObound wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
At this point it makes more sense for AF to choose the E195-E2 iso the A220.
Commonality with KLM and HOP! and simplicity, isn't that what the CEO is looking for?

Boeing would be very aggressive on pricing too, they can use the E2 orders.

Ah but wait, a Canadian CEO, a Canadian aircraft...coincidence you think?
The CS300 having the CASM of the A321? The A321CEO maybe, but that's apples to oranges.

Where is EMBSPBR when you need him? Is it not day yet in Sao Jose dos Campos?


The E2 wouldn't work for mainline AF. The 223 on the other hand could be a 1:1 swap for their 318s and 319s with SWISS like 145 seat config.

The E2 could work for Hop! On the other hand 221s provide easy crew transition, let them upgauge while reducing aircraft count and go from three families to one type. So there's an advantage.

What's surprising here is that Cityhopper went for the E2 and didn't go for the A220 given the whole group's consideration. 35 223s would have allowed them a slight increase in seat count too. Wonder if there are scope issues with Cityhopper.


About Cityhopper, they have been flying the E-jets for over a decade now, and operate 50 of them (1 on lease from Stobart). Even though the A223 would offer a slight pax increase over the E2 it isn't what KL was looking for. Introducing the E195-E2 saves a lot of time, money and resources and gives them an increase in seat count, from 100 to +120.

Re: AF to order A220, replace A380?

Posted: Fri Jul 19, 2019 1:58 pm
by Jetty
JannEejit wrote:
inkjet7 wrote:
behramjee wrote:
A
For the A380 replacement either A351s or B779s would be ordered and my money would be on the A351 MTOW version.


AF loves their 777's. They have 70 of them (including the freighters). For fleet commonality a large 777 order would not surprise me at all.
KL's home base is slot restricted and even if a few more slots become available it will soon be slot restricted again. So they likely want/need 777's as well.


View slot availablity and congestion at AMS in mind, maybe KLM should take on the AF A380 fleet ?

No way. KL has enough 777-300 ER’s/747-400’s, yet there only 5 destinations that it’s used on at least daily (BKK, NRT, CUR, SFO, PVG). In the most positive scenario KL might want to use an A380 on those routes. Still too few for a decent fleet.

Re: AF to order A220, replace A380 with 787 or A350?

Posted: Fri Jul 19, 2019 2:13 pm
by Amiga500
oschkosch wrote:
German media says 50-70 A220 order from AF on the way, to be placed by end of August at the latest. They also estimate same amount of A320/321 (NEO) will be ordered.

https://www.aerotelegraph.com/bis-zu-70 ... air-france


Reuters:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-airb ... SKCN1UD21G

Re: AF to order A220, replace A380 with 787 or A350?

Posted: Mon Jul 22, 2019 4:54 pm
by TObound
50-70 A220s seems low. They’d need 50 just to replace the 318s and 319s. They’d need another 40-50 to replace the Hop! Fleet.

50-70 A320/321s seems right. They have 62 320s and 321s right now.

Re: AF to order A220, replace A380 with 787 or A350?

Posted: Mon Jul 22, 2019 4:56 pm
by lightsaber
Amiga500 wrote:
oschkosch wrote:
German media says 50-70 A220 order from AF on the way, to be placed by end of August at the latest. They also estimate same amount of A320/321 (NEO) will be ordered.

https://www.aerotelegraph.com/bis-zu-70 ... air-france


Reuters:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-airb ... SKCN1UD21G

The numbers sound right if there are options. Best to meet minize the risk of over ordering.

Lightsaber

Re: AF to order A220, replace A380 with 787 or A350?

Posted: Mon Jul 22, 2019 4:58 pm
by TObound
I’m actually surprised they are ordering any 320s for mainline. The 223/321N combination seems solid. And let’s them boost seat counts while cutting costs.

Re: AF to order A220, replace A380 with 787 or A350?

Posted: Mon Jul 22, 2019 8:05 pm
by rrbsztk
TObound wrote:
50-70 A220s seems low. They’d need 50 just to replace the 318s and 319s. They’d need another 40-50 to replace the Hop! Fleet.

50-70 A320/321s seems right. They have 62 320s and 321s right now.


Have they reported looking to order for Hop! too? I know some articles i saw mentioned Transavia but I've not seen Hop! in any. Per airfleets.net they have 14 CRJ1000, the oldest of which is less than 10 years old. They also have 11 E190 with an average age just over 10 years, the oldest is just about to turn 13 years old. The rest of their fleet is meaningfully smaller than 100 seats, so not sure Hop! is in need of an A220-100 order at this point.

Re: AF to order A220, replace A380 with 787 or A350?

Posted: Mon Jul 22, 2019 8:27 pm
by T4thH
rrbsztk wrote:
TObound wrote:
50-70 A220s seems low. They’d need 50 just to replace the 318s and 319s. They’d need another 40-50 to replace the Hop! Fleet.

50-70 A320/321s seems right. They have 62 320s and 321s right now.


Have they reported looking to order for Hop! too? I know some articles i saw mentioned Transavia but I've not seen Hop! in any. Per airfleets.net they have 14 CRJ1000, the oldest of which is less than 10 years old. They also have 11 E190 with an average age just over 10 years, the oldest is just about to turn 13 years old. The rest of their fleet is meaningfully smaller than 100 seats, so not sure Hop! is in need of an A220-100 order at this point.


This is only an order for Air France main fleet. They will not mix both fleets, they want to avoid, that they have to pay the same to the pilots of Hop! than to AF.
According to this, HOP! will fly with regional jets and planes (ATR 42/72; E170/E190 and CRJ and ERJ) and AF with A220, A320 e.g. family. So, as long both fleets are flying different jets, they have not to pay the same to the crews.

Re: AF to order A220, replace A380 with 787 or A350?

Posted: Tue Jul 23, 2019 4:19 am
by zkojq
Jomar777 wrote:
Actually, you might be surprised. As already stated here, Air France, for example, fly loads of WB Aircraft to Africa because of Cargo. KLM also, to keep in the same group, had and still has a a number of B747 Combis for a reason.

Most AF widebody services are to West Africa whilst KLM's 744 Freighters primarily fly services to East Africa..

Jomar777 wrote:
Now - repair - have yoursself wondered why, with all the turmoil in Brazil, has AA decided to build up a maintenance facility at GRU?

Because AA's flights into GRU mainly arrive very early in the morning and depart very late at night thus giving them lots of ground time for maintenance. Same with Qantas at LAX, Air New Zealand at HKG etc...

SteelChair wrote:
Because AF is so profitable.



Oh please. AFKL loads KL costs onto AF so that more money is made by KL who enjoys a lower tax rate in the Netherlands compared to AF in France.

Re: AF to order A220, replace A380 with 787 or A350?

Posted: Tue Jul 23, 2019 7:00 am
by Thibault973
zkojq wrote:
Oh please. AFKL loads KL costs onto AF so that more money is made by KL who enjoys a lower tax rate in the Netherlands compared to AF in France.


That part ! Funny how this piece of info, which is readily available and actually pretty smart is always overlooked on this site by self proclaimed financial experts.

Re: AF to order A220, replace A380 with 787 or A350?

Posted: Tue Jul 23, 2019 7:57 am
by LaunchDetected
zkojq wrote:
Oh please. AFKL loads KL costs onto AF so that more money is made by KL who enjoys a lower tax rate in the Netherlands compared to AF in France.


*Insert Michael Scott's THANK YOU gif*

The more A220 are selling, the happier I am. Regarding the composition of the A320neo bundle there is a lot of discordant sources.

Re: AF to order A220, replace A380 with 787 or A350?

Posted: Tue Jul 23, 2019 8:17 am
by FrancisBegbie
Thibault973 wrote:
zkojq wrote:
Oh please. AFKL loads KL costs onto AF so that more money is made by KL who enjoys a lower tax rate in the Netherlands compared to AF in France.


That part ! Funny how this piece of info, which is readily available and actually pretty smart is always overlooked on this site by self proclaimed financial experts.


Go blame the French Tax Authorities then for letting profits slip to NL without base. There many many rules that limit AFKL’s powers to do so legally.

E.g : I don’t think anybody claims that activities are being transferred from Paris to Amsterdam (stories/plans are usually other way around and attract enough noise that I believe AF staff would be very vocal if activities would have been moved to Amsterdam.). A bit simplified but in general, especially within EU, without moving the actual activities, you cannot move the revenue streams.

Re: AF to order A220, replace A380 with 787 or A350?

Posted: Tue Jul 23, 2019 8:29 am
by Jomar777
zkojq wrote:
Jomar777 wrote:
Actually, you might be surprised. As already stated here, Air France, for example, fly loads of WB Aircraft to Africa because of Cargo. KLM also, to keep in the same group, had and still has a a number of B747 Combis for a reason.

Most AF widebody services are to West Africa whilst KLM's 744 Freighters primarily fly services to East Africa..

Jomar777 wrote:
Now - repair - have yoursself wondered why, with all the turmoil in Brazil, has AA decided to build up a maintenance facility at GRU?

Because AA's flights into GRU mainly arrive very early in the morning and depart very late at night thus giving them lots of ground time for maintenance. Same with Qantas at LAX, Air New Zealand at HKG etc...

SteelChair wrote:
Because AF is so profitable.



Oh please. AFKL loads KL costs onto AF so that more money is made by KL who enjoys a lower tax rate in the Netherlands compared to AF in France.


Err... You stated that KLM's 744 Combis to East Africa. Last time I heard, that WAS within Africa. So my point is set.
AA could easily leave the aircrafts to sand there for nothing and maintaim them elsewhere. Yet it did indeed chose to build up the maintenance in Sao Paulo. It is not idle time only that made them do so otherwise they would decided to go ahead with the project.

Re: AF to order A220, replace A380 with 787 or A350?

Posted: Tue Jul 23, 2019 1:08 pm
by Babyshark
TObound wrote:
I’m actually surprised they are ordering any 320s for mainline. The 223/321N combination seems solid. And let’s them boost seat counts while cutting costs.


321s and 320s are common type and pilot type rating and common pilot staffing and training.

It's the main focus on airbus.com after dimensions of the aircraft:

Focus on commonality
Due to its 95 per cent airframe commonality with the A320ceo (current engine option) version, Airbus’ A320neo jetliner fits seamlessly into existing A320 Family fleets worldwide – which is a key factor for the company’s customers and operators. The A320neo provides minimum change with maximum benefit for the A320 through incorporation of two new engine choices – Pratt & Whitney’s PurePower PW1100G-JM geared turbofan and CFM International’s LEAP-1A – along with Sharklet™ wingtip devices.


For the a220 it doesnt have 95% commonality with 321 and it will need separate staffing, simulators and training department. You cant use the same crew at an out station if you decide to swap from 321 to 220 whereas you can use same crew swapping 321 to 320.

Re: AF to order A220, replace A380 with 787 or A350?

Posted: Tue Jul 23, 2019 1:39 pm
by TObound
Babyshark wrote:
TObound wrote:
I’m actually surprised they are ordering any 320s for mainline. The 223/321N combination seems solid. And let’s them boost seat counts while cutting costs.


321s and 320s are common type and pilot type rating and common pilot staffing and training.
....
For the a220 it doesnt have 95% commonality with 321 and it will need separate staffing, simulators and training department. You cant use the same crew at an out station if you decide to swap from 321 to 220 whereas you can use same crew swapping 321 to 320.


As mentioned elsewhere, commonality is less of an issue when you have 50+ of each type.

And more specifically as Delta and JetBlue are showing, you don’t necessarily need the 320NEO. Both of them have ordered large numbers of 220s and 321NEOs only. The 223/321N seems to work well for mainline short/medium haul with the 223 acting as the schedule builder and the 321N providing the heavy lift.

Re: AF to order A220, replace A380 with 787 or A350?

Posted: Tue Jul 23, 2019 1:44 pm
by keesje
I hoped for years AF could motivate Airbus to create a logical moderately grown A320Plus to replace the 30 years old A320 cabin fleet.

The A321 is a whopping 8 rows(!) bigger and more expensive to operate than an A320.

198 seats/ 4 cabin crew would be the holy grail of crew efficiency, without deleting meal service & offering micro lavatories..

Image

Re: AF to order A220, replace A380 with 787 or A350?

Posted: Tue Jul 23, 2019 2:03 pm
by lightsaber
keesje wrote:
I hoped for years AF could motivate Airbus to create a logical moderately grown A320Plus to replace the 30 years old A320 cabin fleet.

The A321 is a whopping 8 rows(!) bigger and more expensive than an A320.

198 seats/ 4 cabin crew would be the holy grail of crew efficiency, without deleting meal service & offering micro lavatories..

Image

Didn't Airbus just extend the A320 in ULCC to 194 seats? If so, a true 200 seater or compete with Boeing's -8-200 with 210 allowed seats.

But there is a cost and the A321, now that it has engines sized for it, is doing very well.

Personally, an A220-500 makes more sense. It would be far better to optimize A32x production so all sites are heavily automated and able to produce the A321.

I'm curious as to the mix of A220. Will there be -100 for shortfield and lower demand routes?

I'm curious as to what replaces the A380. We could see dramatic down gauge. Nothing wrong with that. AF/KLM costs force a drive to yield. Ryanair, Wizz, EasyJet, and Volotea would eat their lunch on value travelers. With the A321xlr and (hopefully) 797 fragmenting TATL length routes, time to plan for a much tougher mid-haul world.

Lightsaber

Re: AF to order A220, replace A380 with 787 or A350?

Posted: Tue Jul 23, 2019 2:08 pm
by lightsaber
TObound wrote:
As mentioned elsewhere, commonality is less of an issue when you have 50+ of each type.

And more specifically as Delta and JetBlue are showing, you don’t necessarily need the 320NEO. Both of them have ordered large numbers of 220s and 321NEOs only. The 223/321N seems to work well for mainline short/medium haul with the 223 acting as the schedule builder and the 321N providing the heavy lift.

I am not a fan of micro gauge increments. That shows a lack of a good yield model. A220-300 to A321 is good enough. Build frequency to a minimum of 5x/day before upgauging more than the two hub feeder waves (unless the best use of increased A321 utilization or for premium seats, of course. Yield management is very dimensional and cannot be explained in one paragraph).

The A220 will be an amazing profit machine.

Lightsaber

Re: AF to order A220, replace A380 with 787 or A350?

Posted: Tue Jul 23, 2019 2:25 pm
by keesje
lightsaber wrote:
keesje wrote:
I hoped for years AF could motivate Airbus to create a logical moderately grown A320Plus to replace the 30 years old A320 cabin fleet.

The A321 is a whopping 8 rows(!) bigger and more expensive than an A320.

198 seats/ 4 cabin crew would be the holy grail of crew efficiency, without deleting meal service & offering micro lavatories..

Image

Didn't Airbus just extend the A320 in ULCC to 194 seats? If so, a true 200 seater or compete with Boeing's -8-200 with 210 allowed seats.

But there is a cost and the A321, now that it has engines sized for it, is doing very well.

Personally, an A220-500 makes more sense. It would be far better to optimize A32x production so all sites are heavily automated and able to produce the A321.

I'm curious as to the mix of A220. Will there be -100 for shortfield and lower demand routes?

I'm curious as to what replaces the A380. We could see dramatic down gauge. Nothing wrong with that. AF/KLM costs force a drive to yield. Ryanair, Wizz, EasyJet, and Volotea would eat their lunch on value travelers. With the A321xlr and (hopefully) 797 fragmenting TATL length routes, time to plan for a much tougher mid-haul world.

Lightsaber


AF is not an ULCC and does some decent meals, flies longer routes. Crew is vocal when passengers turn to them because of micro lavatories.
Air France EMEA network extensively uses automated AKH loading.

Image

An A220-500 would no doubt be a very efficient aircraft. But AF would give in pay load-range and AKH capability on many destinations.

Replacing all A320s by much larger A321s is a bump in cost, capacity impractical for an optimized network coverage. The A320 has become small, hence all seatcount bump "modifications".

A new A320Plus could benefit from the lighter XLR flaps and better fuel tank, improving efficiency, flexibility and rest value. Capacity/lenght would be 1-2 rows bigger than 737-8.

I think Airbus could improve the value of their existing backlog by introducing an A320Plus. For $5-10mln I estimate 1000-2000 out of the existing 6500 aircraft A320 backlog would be coverted to the bigger variant. Break-even in a few weeks without straining the supply chain (engines, landing gears, systems) too much.

Re: AF to order A220, replace A380 with 787 or A350?

Posted: Tue Jul 23, 2019 3:04 pm
by Thibault973
FrancisBegbie wrote:
A bit simplified but in general, especially within EU, without moving the actual activities, you cannot move the revenue streams.


Go tell that to Amazon (over 1b in revenue in France for a mere 60 millions of profits), Google and the likes, apparently they are not aware that you can't move revenue streams in Europe.

Re: AF to order A220, replace A380 with 787 or A350?

Posted: Tue Jul 23, 2019 3:41 pm
by FrancisBegbie
Thibault973 wrote:
FrancisBegbie wrote:
A bit simplified but in general, especially within EU, without moving the actual activities, you cannot move the revenue streams.


Go tell that to Amazon (over 1b in revenue in France for a mere 60 millions of profits), Google and the likes, apparently they are not aware that you can't move revenue streams in Europe.


Revenue and profits are two different things (low margin businesses like supermarkets can tell you all about it). And these are IT companies that came to France with a certain way of working. I agree with you they likely pay too much for IP rights to some silly offshore group company, paying less than their fair share.

However, AF was an established tax payer in France. For your theory to work, AF must have changed something under the noses of the French tax authorities who annually review their tax returns and got away with it. Change is visible. I would be angry if I were a French taxpayer.

Re: AF to order A220, replace A380 with 787 or A350?

Posted: Tue Jul 23, 2019 4:36 pm
by Jetty
Thibault973 wrote:
zkojq wrote:
Oh please. AFKL loads KL costs onto AF so that more money is made by KL who enjoys a lower tax rate in the Netherlands compared to AF in France.


That part ! Funny how this piece of info, which is readily available and actually pretty smart is always overlooked on this site by self proclaimed financial experts.

Readily available where? I haven't seen any serious news outlet reporting this including factual information how.

Re: AF to order A220, replace A380 with 787 or A350?

Posted: Tue Jul 23, 2019 9:34 pm
by SteelChair
oschkosch wrote:
German media says 50-70 A220 order from AF on the way, to be placed by end of August at the latest. They also estimate same amount of A320/321 (NEO) will be ordered.

https://www.aerotelegraph.com/bis-zu-70 ... air-france


Hopefully Aitbis and Bombardier are getting higher prices than the earlier customers are rumored to have paid.

Re: AF to order A220, replace A380 with 787 or A350?

Posted: Wed Jul 24, 2019 3:39 am
by EddieDude
lightsaber wrote:
I'm curious as to what replaces the A380. We could see dramatic down gauge. Nothing wrong with that.

Reminds me a bit of DL replacing its 744s with A359s.

I think it will depend on the destination. I would say (from my imaginary CEO chair) that MEX, JNB and ABJ will get 77Ws once all the A380s are phased out; this makes sense to me because adding more rotations might in the end be more costly and complex than simply replacing the A380 with the next largest aircraft in the fleet. LAX and JFK have more than one daily AF flights if I am not mistaken, so I think we could see any of AF's widebodies replacing the A380 in those specific flights depending on the schedule, the season, DLs added capacity, etc.

The article that was referred to in the opening post mentions AF is looking at the Dreamliner and the A339 (and that the high price is what is keeping AF away from the A350). With KL getting all of the remaining Dreamliners and AF getting all the A359s, it seems to me the A339 would have an edge here. Then again, another news report shared by someone else discussed the prospects of the A350-1000 with AF in the future, so I guess nothing is set in stone yet. It will be very interesting to see how this plays out in the end.

Re: AF to order A220, replace A380 with 787 or A350?

Posted: Wed Jul 24, 2019 6:39 am
by VV
So Air France decided to remove the A380 from its fleet.
Why? Isn't A380 the right and the only aircraft that could solve issues in congested airports like Paris?

Re: AF to order A220, replace A380 with 787 or A350?

Posted: Wed Jul 24, 2019 9:15 am
by AsiaTravel
VV wrote:
So Air France decided to remove the A380 from its fleet.
Why? Isn't A380 the right and the only aircraft that could solve issues in congested airports like Paris?


Paris-CDG really isn't congested at all.

Re: AF to order A220, replace A380 with 787 or A350?

Posted: Wed Jul 24, 2019 10:00 am
by Amiga500
lightsaber wrote:
Personally, an A220-500 makes more sense. It would be far better to optimize A32x production so all sites are heavily automated and able to produce the A321.


In terms of DOC per seat-mile, definitely.

However, there are - what - around 2000 A320s scheduled for deliver over the next, say, 7 years. So call that 300 a year.

Current CS100/CS300 output is looking like 33 over last year and ~50 over this year, with growth at around 30% a year - which is obviously unsustainable as numbers get higher and the chokepoints require fundamental changes to the supply chain (rather than massaging of assembly lines).


Using a bastardised hybrid of current ramp factors and current ramp iterative rates, I cannot see 300+ CS100/CS300 being delivered per year this side of 2025. Probably more like 2030.

Airbus have soooo much work to do in terms of manufacturing ramp before an A225 is a viable replacement for the A320 in numbers.

Re: AF to order A220, replace A380 with 787 or A350?

Posted: Wed Jul 24, 2019 12:30 pm
by TObound
SteelChair wrote:
oschkosch wrote:
German media says 50-70 A220 order from AF on the way, to be placed by end of August at the latest. They also estimate same amount of A320/321 (NEO) will be ordered.

https://www.aerotelegraph.com/bis-zu-70 ... air-france


Hopefully Aitbis and Bombardier are getting higher prices than the earlier customers are rumored to have paid.


They most definitely are. It's not a three way bid fight (Bombardier-Boeing-Airbus) anymore. It's back to the duopoly.

And Airbus is probably trying to push as many sales in their side of the house to the 321N to boost margins.

Re: AF to order A220, replace A380 with 787 or A350?

Posted: Wed Jul 24, 2019 12:38 pm
by brindabella
TObound wrote:
Babyshark wrote:
TObound wrote:
I’m actually surprised they are ordering any 320s for mainline. The 223/321N combination seems solid. And let’s them boost seat counts while cutting costs.


321s and 320s are common type and pilot type rating and common pilot staffing and training.
....
For the a220 it doesnt have 95% commonality with 321 and it will need separate staffing, simulators and training department. You cant use the same crew at an out station if you decide to swap from 321 to 220 whereas you can use same crew swapping 321 to 320.


As mentioned elsewhere, commonality is less of an issue when you have 50+ of each type.

And more specifically as Delta and JetBlue are showing, you don’t necessarily need the 320NEO. Both of them have ordered large numbers of 220s and 321NEOs only. The 223/321N seems to work well for mainline short/medium haul with the 223 acting as the schedule builder and the 321N providing the heavy lift.


:?:
Have to say that I am surprised by the apparent overwhelming consensus here.

Is the 223 -being dribbled-out from the 2 current lines - really so absolutely superior in CASM/RASM/buy price to an A320neo being pumped-out at 50+/Month?
(This is giving the benefit-of-the doubt that transition costs to a substantially different product are negligible. Another assumption hereabouts).

Some evidence, anyone?

cheers

Re: AF to order A220, replace A380 with 787 or A350?

Posted: Wed Jul 24, 2019 12:47 pm
by Peterwk146
lightsaber wrote:
keesje wrote:
I hoped for years AF could motivate Airbus to create a logical moderately grown A320Plus to replace the 30 years old A320 cabin fleet.

The A321 is a whopping 8 rows(!) bigger and more expensive than an A320.

198 seats/ 4 cabin crew would be the holy grail of crew efficiency, without deleting meal service & offering micro lavatories..

Image

Didn't Airbus just extend the A320 in ULCC to 194 seats? If so, a true 200 seater or compete with Boeing's -8-200 with 210 allowed seats.

But there is a cost and the A321, now that it has engines sized for it, is doing very well.

Personally, an A220-500 makes more sense. It would be far better to optimize A32x production so all sites are heavily automated and able to produce the A321.

I'm curious as to the mix of A220. Will there be -100 for shortfield and lower demand routes?

I'm curious as to what replaces the A380. We could see dramatic down gauge. Nothing wrong with that. AF/KLM costs force a drive to yield. Ryanair, Wizz, EasyJet, and Volotea would eat their lunch on value travelers. With the A321xlr and (hopefully) 797 fragmenting TATL length routes, time to plan for a much tougher mid-haul world.

Lightsaber

I would have expected Airbus to have already looked at the variations that you are taking about (and more) because that's the job of the new projects team (or whatever they're called). However, it all comes down to the business case - will it make sufficient money to justify the development costs, manufacturing costs, etc.? If there isn't the business case, then it won't happen.

Re: AF to order A220, replace A380 with 787 or A350?

Posted: Wed Jul 24, 2019 12:56 pm
by TObound
keesje wrote:
I hoped for years AF could motivate Airbus to create a logical moderately grown A320Plus to replace the 30 years old A320 cabin fleet.

The A321 is a whopping 8 rows(!) bigger and more expensive to operate than an A320.

198 seats/ 4 cabin crew would be the holy grail of crew efficiency, without deleting meal service & offering micro lavatories..

Image


The problem is the range of customers. An LCC wants 198 seats with 30" pitch. That same aircraft would be about 170-180 seats with J, W/Y+ and mainline 31" pitch Y. But mainline airlines also want aircraft closer to 200 seats to maximize crew utilization.

On the upper end, Airbus needs an aircraft that is closer to 250 seats, which means the larger aircraft dropping to 200 seats in three classes is challenging.

Really need three aircraft to cover this class. A 320+ as you describe for LCCs. A 321+ with maybe an extra row to get to 200 seats in North American 3-class. And a 321++ with 240-250 in 30" LCC config.

Re: AF to order A220, replace A380 with 787 or A350?

Posted: Wed Jul 24, 2019 1:16 pm
by TObound
brindabella wrote:
TObound wrote:
Babyshark wrote:

321s and 320s are common type and pilot type rating and common pilot staffing and training.
....
For the a220 it doesnt have 95% commonality with 321 and it will need separate staffing, simulators and training department. You cant use the same crew at an out station if you decide to swap from 321 to 220 whereas you can use same crew swapping 321 to 320.


As mentioned elsewhere, commonality is less of an issue when you have 50+ of each type.

And more specifically as Delta and JetBlue are showing, you don’t necessarily need the 320NEO. Both of them have ordered large numbers of 220s and 321NEOs only. The 223/321N seems to work well for mainline short/medium haul with the 223 acting as the schedule builder and the 321N providing the heavy lift.


:?:
Have to say that I am surprised by the apparent overwhelming consensus here.

Is the 223 -being dribbled-out from the 2 current lines - really so absolutely superior in CASM/RASM/buy price to an A320neo being pumped-out at 50+/Month?
(This is giving the benefit-of-the doubt that transition costs to a substantially different product are negligible. Another assumption hereabouts).

Some evidence, anyone?

cheers


It's not about the 223 being superior. It's about the 321N being superior.

For AF, the 223 adds 10% more seats over the 318. And is a 1:1 replacement for the 319. All while cutting operating costs a fair bit.

On the larger side, 320s can be replaced with 321NEOs, adding 10-15% more seats for the same or lower operating costs than a 320CEO. Same crew size (if limited to 200 seats). More seats. Lower fuel consumption.

This is why I said the 223/321N combination works so well. It's exactly what JetBlue ordered. And close to what Delta ordered. B6 is replacing E190s with 223s which is a big jump in capacity for about the same in operating costs. And DL is using 221s to replace regional jets and 223s to replace 319s, with 320s at both airlines being replaced partly or entirely with 321NEOs.

Re: AF to order A220, replace A380 with 787 or A350?

Posted: Wed Jul 24, 2019 1:18 pm
by SteelChair
TObound wrote:
SteelChair wrote:
oschkosch wrote:
German media says 50-70 A220 order from AF on the way, to be placed by end of August at the latest. They also estimate same amount of A320/321 (NEO) will be ordered.

https://www.aerotelegraph.com/bis-zu-70 ... air-france


Hopefully Aitbis and Bombardier are getting higher prices than the earlier customers are rumored to have paid.


They most definitely are. It's not a three way bid fight (Bombardier-Boeing-Airbus) anymore. It's back to the duopoly.

And Airbus is probably trying to push as many sales in their side of the house to the 321N to boost margins.


Please tell us how much A220s are going for now.

Re: AF to order A220, replace A380 with 787 or A350?

Posted: Wed Jul 24, 2019 1:22 pm
by TObound
SteelChair wrote:
TObound wrote:
SteelChair wrote:

Hopefully Aitbis and Bombardier are getting higher prices than the earlier customers are rumored to have paid.


They most definitely are. It's not a three way bid fight (Bombardier-Boeing-Airbus) anymore. It's back to the duopoly.

And Airbus is probably trying to push as many sales in their side of the house to the 321N to boost margins.


Please tell us how much A220s are going for now.


1) Nobody who knows that information would reveal it.

2) Basic economics tells you that less competition world result in higher prices.

3) Airbus didn't take on the CSeries and expand production to sell airplanes at a loss.

Re: AF to order A220, replace A380 with 787 or A350?

Posted: Wed Jul 24, 2019 1:24 pm
by SteelChair
Amiga500 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Personally, an A220-500 makes more sense. It would be far better to optimize A32x production so all sites are heavily automated and able to produce the A321.


In terms of DOC per seat-mile, definitely.

However, there are - what - around 2000 A320s scheduled for deliver over the next, say, 7 years. So call that 300 a year.

Current CS100/CS300 output is looking like 33 over last year and ~50 over this year, with growth at around 30% a year - which is obviously unsustainable as numbers get higher and the chokepoints require fundamental changes to the supply chain (rather than massaging of assembly lines).


Using a bastardised hybrid of current ramp factors and current ramp iterative rates, I cannot see 300+ CS100/CS300 being delivered per year this side of 2025. Probably more like 2030.

Airbus have soooo much work to do in terms of manufacturing ramp before an A225 is a viable replacement for the A320 in numbers.


But but but.....experts on here are claiming that the 500 will never be built because its a threat to the 320N. Now you come and say it'll be years before Airbus is able to build, certify, and produce in quantity the 500 (Note that i skipped "design").

Re: AF to order A220, replace A380 with 787 or A350?

Posted: Wed Jul 24, 2019 1:35 pm
by lightsaber
brindabella wrote:
TObound wrote:
Babyshark wrote:

321s and 320s are common type and pilot type rating and common pilot staffing and training.
....
For the a220 it doesnt have 95% commonality with 321 and it will need separate staffing, simulators and training department. You cant use the same crew at an out station if you decide to swap from 321 to 220 whereas you can use same crew swapping 321 to 320.


As mentioned elsewhere, commonality is less of an issue when you have 50+ of each type.

And more specifically as Delta and JetBlue are showing, you don’t necessarily need the 320NEO. Both of them have ordered large numbers of 220s and 321NEOs only. The 223/321N seems to work well for mainline short/medium haul with the 223 acting as the schedule builder and the 321N providing the heavy lift.


:?:
Have to say that I am surprised by the apparent overwhelming consensus here.

Is the 223 -being dribbled-out from the 2 current lines - really so absolutely superior in CASM/RASM/buy price to an A320neo being pumped-out at 50+/Month?
(This is giving the benefit-of-the doubt that transition costs to a substantially different product are negligible. Another assumption hereabouts).

Some evidence, anyone?

cheers

The A220 has incredibly low CASM:
https://airinsight.com/cseries-beats-ne ... ile-costs/

You do know yield drops with passenger count? On a city pair their might be:
12 passengers in top fare bucket
20 in 2nd fare bucket
30 in 3rd bucket
50 in 4th and say 250 in last (cheapest) bucket.

In my example, there are only 62 fares worth pursuing. The rest are carried at a loss. So a smaller aircraft that carries people at the same or lower cost will make more profit.

The issue with the c-series was support and production is being fixed. At this time, there is less wait for the A220 as Pratt is finally producing engines on time. CFM still hasn't met demand.

Most of the A220 benefit is CFRP wing and electrical subsystems (saves about 3% in fuel).

The A220 engines are optimized for a 1 hour mission, the A320 NEO was mandated to optimize for 2 hours on the A321, which means about 3 hours in the A320. In other words, the A320 is carrying so much extra engine that the A220 has a definitive cost advantage in shorter missions, but the lower wing loading helps on longer missions.

The A320 needs a new wing. The current wing is out of date on multiple grounds (fuel system design, material, lack of underside laminar flow which requires a greater aspect ratio).

Technology has moved on.

For AF, the A220 is an excellent fit. They will make more profit with it.

Lightsaber

Re: AF to order A220, replace A380 with 787 or A350?

Posted: Wed Jul 24, 2019 1:42 pm
by TObound
lightsaber wrote:
brindabella wrote:
TObound wrote:

As mentioned elsewhere, commonality is less of an issue when you have 50+ of each type.

And more specifically as Delta and JetBlue are showing, you don’t necessarily need the 320NEO. Both of them have ordered large numbers of 220s and 321NEOs only. The 223/321N seems to work well for mainline short/medium haul with the 223 acting as the schedule builder and the 321N providing the heavy lift.


:?:
Have to say that I am surprised by the apparent overwhelming consensus here.

Is the 223 -being dribbled-out from the 2 current lines - really so absolutely superior in CASM/RASM/buy price to an A320neo being pumped-out at 50+/Month?
(This is giving the benefit-of-the doubt that transition costs to a substantially different product are negligible. Another assumption hereabouts).

Some evidence, anyone?

cheers

The A220 has incredibly low CASM:
https://airinsight.com/cseries-beats-ne ... ile-costs/

You do know yield drops with passenger count? On a city pair their might be:
12 passengers in top fare bucket
20 in 2nd fare bucket
30 in 3rd bucket
50 in 4th and say 250 in last (cheapest) bucket.

In my example, there are only 62 fares worth pursuing. The rest are carried at a loss. So a smaller aircraft that carries people at the same or lower cost will make more profit.

The issue with the c-series was support and production is being fixed. At this time, there is less wait for the A220 as Pratt is finally producing engines on time. CFM still hasn't met demand.

Most of the A220 benefit is CFRP wing and electrical subsystems (saves about 3% in fuel).

The A220 engines are optimized for a 1 hour mission, the A320 NEO was mandated to optimize for 2 hours on the A321, which means about 3 hours in the A320. In other words, the A320 is carrying so much extra engine that the A220 has a definitive cost advantage in shorter missions, but the lower wing loading helps on longer missions.

The A320 needs a new wing. The current wing is out of date on multiple grounds (fuel system design, material, lack of underside laminar flow which requires a greater aspect ratio).

Technology has moved on.

For AF, the A220 is an excellent fit. They will make more profit with it.

Lightsaber


While all the above is true, I still think the 223 is more of a 318/319 replacement for AF. The 321NEO is a beast of an airplane to replace the 320CEO. I don't think we'll see AF replace too many 320s with 223s. If any....

Re: AF to order A220, replace A380 with 787 or A350?

Posted: Wed Jul 24, 2019 2:02 pm
by Amiga500
SteelChair wrote:
But but but.....experts on here are claiming that the 500 will never be built because its a threat to the 320N. Now you come and say it'll be years before Airbus is able to build, certify, and produce in quantity the 500 (Note that i skipped "design").


I'm not quite saying that.

I'm saying until the production rates get up to that level - or give Airbus the confidence that they can be got to that level in good time - then any discussion about how good an A220-500 might be is moot.

They won't build it because they couldn't ever deliver them quick enough.