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aemoreira1981
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Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Wed Jul 31, 2019 3:16 am

EvanWSFO wrote:
I think in hindsight, Boeing will regret not moving on Bombardier before Airbus. I know they have a lot of irons in the fire right now. I'm a Boeing fan, but IMO the A220 series is going to bury the E2.


The A220 is the first mainline-sized clean sheet narrow-body in almost 30 years. This may be the plane that finally solves the 100-150 seat market conundrum. The A220-100 is 4 metric tons lighter than the A318, and the A220-300 is a whopping 7 metric tons lighter than the A319, and both are planes with greater than 3000 nmi range, although A220-300 has slightly less range than the A319 and A319neo. I'm surprised that Airbus has not canned the A319neo yet...when it could develop the A220-300 into a corporate jet as an A319(CJ) replacement.

Once costs of production can be brought down with improvements in the supply chain, I expect the A220-300 to sell a lot and be the dominant plane in the 125-150 seat class for years to come. Boeing's lawsuit on Bombardier over this was a mistake...they need to worry now that Southwest doesn't look at the A220-300 seriously, as they could operate this in Y145 with 32"-33" pitch and 18.5" seat width.
 
TObound
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Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Wed Jul 31, 2019 3:49 am

I'm still curious why they ordered 60. That's 10 more than they need to replace the 318s and 319s. No mention at all about the A320 replacement. Abs they added seats. No mention at all about their plan to cut capacity.

Kind of a confusing picture.
 
StudiodeKadent
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Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Wed Jul 31, 2019 4:09 am

MIflyer12 wrote:

Delta's A220-300 will have an F cabin and total 130 seats. 149 seats will not feature generous pitch.


That translates into a 30" pitch, which is perfectly tolerable for the very short-haul flights that European carriers tend to have, especially given the generous seat width of the jet, and the fact that new seating increases knee space even when the pitch is held constant.

Not to mention, AF is hardly a carrier known for generous legroom. They have 31" in longhaul economy.
 
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seahawk
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Re: AF to order A220, replace A380 with 787 or A350?

Wed Jul 31, 2019 5:05 am

Revelation wrote:
seahawk wrote:
It will be costly, but cost well spent, as higher production rates unlock economy of scales advantages that make the plane even more competitive. If they can bring it to around 25 frames per months on 2 lines, they should be well set.

Sure, but it's no small ask for the rest of the supply chain to double their output by a factor of two, or actually 2.5 since the original target BBD set was 10/month.

Then you need to feel you can reliably sell 300/year for long enough to pay off all the facilities needed to double the scale of the production line.

And then we have all the strategy issues around the Airbus/BBD/IQ partnership to consider.

Above it was written the current plan is to get to 14/month in 2024.

It'll be interesting to see if an improved plan gets put into place or not.


25 would be a long time goal. If they can quickly reach 14-16 frames a month on 2 lines, the disadvantage compared to the A320 would reduce significantly though.
 
oschkosch
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Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Wed Jul 31, 2019 5:46 am

sergegva wrote:
Is it a firm order, as most media say, or a MOU as the new thread's title is saying?



The 60 + 30 options are firm IMHO.
 
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Momo1435
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Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Wed Jul 31, 2019 6:03 am

oschkosch wrote:
sergegva wrote:
Is it a firm order, as most media say, or a MOU as the new thread's title is saying?



The 60 + 30 options are firm IMHO.

It's an MOU, source: the Airbus Press release.

So it still needs to be firmed up, it won't show up on the monthy order update for July.

Some media outlets call it firm because the deal is for 60 firm, 30 options and 30 purchase rights. But that's only fully firm after the order is sealed.
 
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Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Wed Jul 31, 2019 8:57 am

Great news about the A220s - they'll be great for AF mainline as well as the regional stuff. The savings over the A318 and 19 are pretty compelling and it is a much nicer hard product which will help them solidify business yields like Swiss have.

Re the A380s I took an AF A380 recently for the first time and was shocked at how tired they were internally. Food and general soft product was superb as AF always is but the hard product was tatty and seriously outdated. The AF 789 I took on the return was like a quantum leap into the future, it felt a bit like Marty McFly going from 1985 to "the future" it really did.

If you compare the AF cabin experience to the newest EK A380s and the EY birds (which are stunning if you've not flown them you should) its like night and day.

I would like to see AF keep on their A380s but give them the nose to tail treatment - they need a bit of love and TLC. I'd get rid of F, take out of the Y sections for Y+ and make the C section larger and more spacious with their latest hard product with all the toys and bells and whistles. Then fly them as mid/long haul tourist bombers - JFK, BKK, YUL and MCO etc. But I guess this would cost more than AF thinks the A380 is worth. Shame. Lovely plane, just needs some TLC!
 
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Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Wed Jul 31, 2019 10:17 am

Big day for AF :
https://www.lepoint.fr/economie/air-fra ... 705_28.php
https://www.challenges.fr/entreprise/tr ... via_666983

The pilot union also approved the plan to lift the 40 A/C limit for the Transavia fleet.
727 AT, 737 UX/SK/TO/SS, 747 UT/AF/SQ/BA/SS, 767 UA, 777 AF, A300 IW/TG, A310 EK, A318/19/20/21 AF/U2/VY, A332/3 EK/QR/TX, A343 AF, A388 AF, E145/170/190 A5/WF, Q400 WF, ATR 72 A5/TX, CRJ100/700/1000 A5, C-150/172, PC-6.
 
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Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Wed Jul 31, 2019 10:45 am

What is the difference between the 30 options and the 30 purchase rights?
 
Amiga500
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Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Wed Jul 31, 2019 10:56 am

Lewton wrote:
What is the difference between the 30 options and the 30 purchase rights?


Options might have fixed prices and delivery slot guarantees whereas purchase rights would perhaps only have fixed prices.

But thats a bit of a guess.
 
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Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Wed Jul 31, 2019 11:34 am

Thanks Amiga500.

And one more question: is it in the end a firm order or still a MOU?
I am asking because on Air France website 60 firm orders are mentioned but this thread's title mentions a MOU.
 
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Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Wed Jul 31, 2019 11:34 am

Amiga500 wrote:
Lewton wrote:
What is the difference between the 30 options and the 30 purchase rights?


Options might have fixed prices and delivery slot guarantees whereas purchase rights would perhaps only have fixed prices.

But thats a bit of a guess.


That's pretty much correct.
I do enjoy a spot of flying, especially when it's not in economy!
 
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Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Wed Jul 31, 2019 11:44 am

Why is the production rate constrained? Simply because BBD was under-capitalized andcouldnt build a larger FAL especially since orders weren’t coming in droves.

Why couldn’t they make these deals eight years ago? BBD was an unproven builder of larger airliners offering a new product in a size that had was oddly placed between an RJ and A320. Additionally, BBD finances and support killed carriers future confidence in the company. With Airbus behind it, orders are coming in.

I still think it’s a niche airplane that will struggle to reach even the CRJ’s order book. Too big to be a low cost regional plane, too small to be a mainliner.

GF
 
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Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Wed Jul 31, 2019 11:45 am

TObound wrote:
I'm still curious why they ordered 60. That's 10 more than they need to replace the 318s and 319s. No mention at all about the A320 replacement. Abs they added seats. No mention at all about their plan to cut capacity.

Kind of a confusing picture.


You might hope they're planning for some growth. Endless share loss isn't a great business plan.
 
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Re: AF to order A220, replace A380 with 787 or A350?

Wed Jul 31, 2019 12:12 pm

marcelh wrote:
LaunchDetected wrote:
Image

What a beauty, congrats to Airbus, Bombardier and AF!

Should be even more beautiful in KLM livery :hissyfit:


It would for sure. I do understand KLM's choice for the E2-195 though. And that one will look sharp too :bouncy:

MIflyer12 wrote:
TObound wrote:
I'm still curious why they ordered 60. That's 10 more than they need to replace the 318s and 319s. No mention at all about the A320 replacement. Abs they added seats. No mention at all about their plan to cut capacity.

Kind of a confusing picture.


You might hope they're planning for some growth. Endless share loss isn't a great business plan.


True. Though AF shrunk their NB somewhat the past few years, maybe they can regain some market share with the A223.

We'll have to wait and see what AF will do with the options. The A320ceo fleet is still generally quite young and doesn't replacement yet. By that time, the A220-500 may have become more than a paper plane...

Talking about paper, maybe Ben Smith hopes the French law regarding regional jets being not allowed to exceed 100 seats can be amended. It is not eco friendly to prohibit aircraft with low CO2 footprint carrying the number of passengers to capacity. Perhaps that's when the purchase rights come into play... If not, and the 100 seat limit is upheld, the E2 will be frontrunner at HOP. Or even the M90?
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Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Wed Jul 31, 2019 12:12 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Why is the production rate constrained? Simply because BBD was under-capitalized andcouldnt build a larger FAL especially since orders weren’t coming in droves.

Why couldn’t they make these deals eight years ago? BBD was an unproven builder of larger airliners offering a new product in a size that had was oddly placed between an RJ and A320. Additionally, BBD finances and support killed carriers future confidence in the company. With Airbus behind it, orders are coming in.

I still think it’s a niche airplane that will struggle to reach even the CRJ’s order book. Too big to be a low cost regional plane, too small to be a mainliner.

GF


The expectations for the 150 seats class (we are talking about with the A220-100 to A220-300) is around 4000 (smallest) to 10.000 (biggest) in next 20 years. The total market will something around 40.000 birds in next 20 years. Airbus is expecting to get around 50% of this part of the market with the A220. As we have till now seen since middle of last years, seems they will get more than 50% of the market; A319 Neo and B737 Max 7 are selling bad and order numbers are even shrinking (and the Max 7 is in real a Max 7.5, so longer than the B737-700 and just at the upper end of this market). The E2 family with the E190 (lower end) and E195 E2 are also not selling slow (also they got some nice numbers of orders, but only few firm and with exception of the KLM (not firm) order, non of "important" companies. So 50% market share in this class seems to be even a little bit low.
I expect a total number of more than 3000 in next 20 years (up to 5.000) produced A220 family members, so around 10% of the total numbers of produced jets? By hell, is this not good enough?

regarding links, to the expected numbers in next 20 years (of Airbus, Boeing, Embraer and Bombardier (from last year))...linked on my old computer, which is broken and my last backup was two month old...sorry no links...
 
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Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Wed Jul 31, 2019 1:30 pm

Amiga500 wrote:
Lewton wrote:
What is the difference between the 30 options and the 30 purchase rights?


Options might have fixed prices and delivery slot guarantees whereas purchase rights would perhaps only have fixed prices.

But thats a bit of a guess.

That is a good summary.

Options might be for:
4 in 2024
6 in 2025 on until all 30 are taken.

Purchase rights are when available, at the set price. AF will have some guarantees on timeline, but we are talking about 4 to 9 years after excercising... (I speculate based on what I've seen).

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Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Wed Jul 31, 2019 1:50 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:

I still think it’s a niche airplane that will struggle to reach even the CRJ’s order book. Too big to be a low cost regional plane, too small to be a mainliner.

GF


The whole CRJ program has over 1800 deliveries over 40 years. The CRJ700 series (CRJ700/900/100) has almost 900 orders with nearly 20 years in service.

The A220 has almost 600 orders and it's only been in production since 2012. I would bet money that the A220 outsells the whole CRJ program by 2030.
 
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Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Wed Jul 31, 2019 8:53 pm

CHRISBA35X wrote:
Great news about the A220s - they'll be great for AF mainline as well as the regional stuff. The savings over the A318 and 19 are pretty compelling and it is a much nicer hard product which will help them solidify business yields like Swiss have.

Re the A380s I took an AF A380 recently for the first time and was shocked at how tired they were internally. Food and general soft product was superb as AF always is but the hard product was tatty and seriously outdated. The AF 789 I took on the return was like a quantum leap into the future, it felt a bit like Marty McFly going from 1985 to "the future" it really did.

If you compare the AF cabin experience to the newest EK A380s and the EY birds (which are stunning if you've not flown them you should) its like night and day.

I would like to see AF keep on their A380s but give them the nose to tail treatment - they need a bit of love and TLC. I'd get rid of F, take out of the Y sections for Y+ and make the C section larger and more spacious with their latest hard product with all the toys and bells and whistles. Then fly them as mid/long haul tourist bombers - JFK, BKK, YUL and MCO etc. But I guess this would cost more than AF thinks the A380 is worth. Shame. Lovely plane, just needs some TLC!



Really curious To know about the future of those A380s. They will be 12 YO approx. A bit too young to be scrapped already IMHO
 
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Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Wed Jul 31, 2019 9:37 pm

A380MSN004 wrote:
CHRISBA35X wrote:
Great news about the A220s - they'll be great for AF mainline as well as the regional stuff. The savings over the A318 and 19 are pretty compelling and it is a much nicer hard product which will help them solidify business yields like Swiss have.

Re the A380s I took an AF A380 recently for the first time and was shocked at how tired they were internally. Food and general soft product was superb as AF always is but the hard product was tatty and seriously outdated. The AF 789 I took on the return was like a quantum leap into the future, it felt a bit like Marty McFly going from 1985 to "the future" it really did.

If you compare the AF cabin experience to the newest EK A380s and the EY birds (which are stunning if you've not flown them you should) its like night and day.

I would like to see AF keep on their A380s but give them the nose to tail treatment - they need a bit of love and TLC. I'd get rid of F, take out of the Y sections for Y+ and make the C section larger and more spacious with their latest hard product with all the toys and bells and whistles. Then fly them as mid/long haul tourist bombers - JFK, BKK, YUL and MCO etc. But I guess this would cost more than AF thinks the A380 is worth. Shame. Lovely plane, just needs some TLC!



Really curious To know about the future of those A380s. They will be 12 YO approx. A bit too young to be scrapped already IMHO


The youngest will be 8..
 
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Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Wed Jul 31, 2019 9:53 pm

TObound wrote:
I'm still curious why they ordered 60. That's 10 more than they need to replace the 318s and 319s. No mention at all about the A320 replacement. Abs they added seats. No mention at all about their plan to cut capacity.

Kind of a confusing picture.

At a.net we tend to assume carriers exchange like for like, which is not the case (just look at the A380s). The fact that they ordered more A220s than they technically 'needed' actually speaks specifically to their plan to cut capacity. It likely indicates they will not be taking as many A320-sized a/c in the future as they currently have.
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Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Wed Jul 31, 2019 10:08 pm

EChid wrote:
TObound wrote:
I'm still curious why they ordered 60. That's 10 more than they need to replace the 318s and 319s. No mention at all about the A320 replacement. Abs they added seats. No mention at all about their plan to cut capacity.

Kind of a confusing picture.

At a.net we tend to assume carriers exchange like for like, which is not the case (just look at the A380s). The fact that they ordered more A220s than they technically 'needed' actually speaks specifically to their plan to cut capacity. It likely indicates they will not be taking as many A320-sized a/c in the future as they currently have.

Or some frequency increases. More than likely though, seat cuts. A320s were bought for routes that do not generate enough yield. The A380 is a good analogy as those routes will shrink too.

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Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Wed Jul 31, 2019 10:22 pm

TObound wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:

I still think it’s a niche airplane that will struggle to reach even the CRJ’s order book. Too big to be a low cost regional plane, too small to be a mainliner.

GF


The whole CRJ program has over 1800 deliveries over 40 years. The CRJ700 series (CRJ700/900/100) has almost 900 orders with nearly 20 years in service.

The A220 has almost 600 orders and it's only been in production since 2012. I would bet money that the A220 outsells the whole CRJ program by 2030.


The CRJ entered service in 1992, more 27 years. The 700/900 entered around 2001, 18 years and both are dead for orders now. The 110-130 seat market has been an historically small niche because they can’t generate enough revenue to pay for costs that are nearly the same as 321 sized planes. It might be the breakthrough everyone hopes, I remain skeptical.

GF
 
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Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Wed Jul 31, 2019 10:31 pm

EChid wrote:
At a.net we tend to assume carriers exchange like for like, which is not the case (just look at the A380s).


Yes, and now FG reports:

Air France-KLM intends to replace the French flag carrier's fleet of 10 Airbus A380s with no more than nine long-haul twinjets.

Chief executive Ben Smith said during a results briefing today that the group was in "advanced" talks with Airbus about ordering A330-900s or A350-900s and with Boeing about a possible deal for 787-9s as replacements for the double-deck type.

Game on for Team A and Team B!

Note also that BA said it is using some 787-10s for 744 replacement, so the a.net idea of like kind substitution is not holding up very well these days.
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Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Wed Jul 31, 2019 10:37 pm

Revelation wrote:
EChid wrote:
At a.net we tend to assume carriers exchange like for like, which is not the case (just look at the A380s).


Yes, and now FG reports:

Air France-KLM intends to replace the French flag carrier's fleet of 10 Airbus A380s with no more than nine long-haul twinjets.

Chief executive Ben Smith said during a results briefing today that the group was in "advanced" talks with Airbus about ordering A330-900s or A350-900s and with Boeing about a possible deal for 787-9s as replacements for the double-deck type.

Game on for Team A and Team B!

Note also that BA said it is using some 787-10s for 744 replacement, so the a.net idea of like kind substitution is not holding up very well these days.

The only two aircraft that can replace the A380 are the 747-8I and the 777-9, so a bad decision on high density slot restricted routes.
 
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Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Wed Jul 31, 2019 10:52 pm

StudiodeKadent wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:

Delta's A220-300 will have an F cabin and total 130 seats. 149 seats will not feature generous pitch.


That translates into a 30" pitch, which is perfectly tolerable for the very short-haul flights that European carriers tend to have, especially given the generous seat width of the jet, and the fact that new seating increases knee space even when the pitch is held constant.

Not to mention, AF is hardly a carrier known for generous legroom. They have 31" in longhaul economy.



31" pitch in Y class these days is the normal. The major European and US carriers have pretty much gone to 30" these days, and cramped is now the norm on everybody.
[
 
T4thH
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Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Wed Jul 31, 2019 10:53 pm

ArchGuy1 wrote:
The only two aircraft that can replace the A380 are the 747-8I and the 777-9, so a bad decision on high density slot restricted routes.


And this is the issue, these are not anymore existing or the number of them is shrinking. The world has moved forward. Passengers are not any more willed to wait. If former a route was flown by an A380 two times a week (and the A380 was full) passenger want now to fly daily. If once daily, they want to have the possibility to fly two times a day or three times, or why not hourly? and best not any more Hub to Hub, instead H to S or directly P to P.
There are only few routes left to fill a A380, B747 8i or 777-X and the numbers of these routes are further shrinking.

So your question:
can replace the A380

[Ironic on]Correct answer: 2x A330 Neo[/Ironic of]
Last edited by T4thH on Wed Jul 31, 2019 10:56 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
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Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Wed Jul 31, 2019 10:55 pm

ArchGuy1 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
EChid wrote:
At a.net we tend to assume carriers exchange like for like, which is not the case (just look at the A380s).


Yes, and now FG reports:

Air France-KLM intends to replace the French flag carrier's fleet of 10 Airbus A380s with no more than nine long-haul twinjets.

Chief executive Ben Smith said during a results briefing today that the group was in "advanced" talks with Airbus about ordering A330-900s or A350-900s and with Boeing about a possible deal for 787-9s as replacements for the double-deck type.

Game on for Team A and Team B!

Note also that BA said it is using some 787-10s for 744 replacement, so the a.net idea of like kind substitution is not holding up very well these days.

The only two aircraft that can replace the A380 are the 747-8I and the 777-9, so a bad decision on high density slot restricted routes.

They will downsize. The lowest yield passengers are obviously not profitable for AF.

Obviously they will allocate 77Ws to maximize profit. This is a system wide downsizing.

Even slot restricted airports have passengers who are not profitable to fly. This is a wise decision. I hope for future 779 sales, but first AF must reign in costs. The A359 or 779 will make more profit per flight. What is not to like?

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Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Wed Jul 31, 2019 10:58 pm

lightsaber wrote:
ArchGuy1 wrote:
Revelation wrote:

Yes, and now FG reports:


Game on for Team A and Team B!

Note also that BA said it is using some 787-10s for 744 replacement, so the a.net idea of like kind substitution is not holding up very well these days.

The only two aircraft that can replace the A380 are the 747-8I and the 777-9, so a bad decision on high density slot restricted routes.

They will downsize. The lowest yield passengers are obviously not profitable for AF.

Obviously they will allocate 77Ws to maximize profit. This is a system wide downsizing.

Even slot restricted airports have passengers who are not profitable to fly. This is a wise decision. I hope for future 779 sales, but first AF must reign in costs. The A359 or 779 will make more profit per flight. What is not to like?

Lightsaber

Actually, the 779 can carry as many passengers as a 747.
 
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Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Wed Jul 31, 2019 11:05 pm

TObound wrote:
I'm still curious why they ordered 60. That's 10 more than they need to replace the 318s and 319s. No mention at all about the A320 replacement. Abs they added seats. No mention at all about their plan to cut capacity.

Kind of a confusing picture.


Substitution for A320neo perhaps. Airbus is competing against itself.
 
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Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Wed Jul 31, 2019 11:20 pm

MrBren wrote:
KLM should definitely drop E2.


KLM should definitely not listen to you.
 
ExMilitaryEng
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Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Wed Jul 31, 2019 11:22 pm

MSPNWA wrote:
Substitution for A320neo perhaps. Airbus is competing against itself


Most probably not. Air France would have ordered E2s instead - at least for the first 60.

If they exercice the 30 + 30, indeed A320's substitution should occur for weaker routes (which is better than abandonning more market share to the LCCs)

FWIW, I don't see how ordering A320 NEOs would help AF competing with LCCs.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Wed Jul 31, 2019 11:38 pm

ArchGuy1 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
ArchGuy1 wrote:
The only two aircraft that can replace the A380 are the 747-8I and the 777-9, so a bad decision on high density slot restricted routes.

They will downsize. The lowest yield passengers are obviously not profitable for AF.

Obviously they will allocate 77Ws to maximize profit. This is a system wide downsizing.

Even slot restricted airports have passengers who are not profitable to fly. This is a wise decision. I hope for future 779 sales, but first AF must reign in costs. The A359 or 779 will make more profit per flight. What is not to like?

Lightsaber

Actually, the 779 can carry as many passengers as a 747.

I typo"d. 789 will make more profit per flight for AF (or A359).

What is telling is the A35K isn't being discussed nor 777x. This is a significant intentional down gauge.

Lightsaber
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Erebus
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Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Wed Jul 31, 2019 11:49 pm

lightsaber wrote:
What is telling is the A35K isn't being discussed nor 777x. This is a significant intentional down gauge.


Down-gauging the mainline fleet wouldn't be a problem if they intend to move low yielding travelers to low cost units. win-win on capacity management.
 
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Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Thu Aug 01, 2019 1:10 am

ExMilitaryEng wrote:
Most probably not. Air France would have ordered E2s instead - at least for the first 60.

If they exercice the 30 + 30, indeed A320's substitution should occur for weaker routes (which is better than abandonning more market share to the LCCs)

FWIW, I don't see how ordering A320 NEOs would help AF competing with LCCs.


This is what I don't get. You say most probably not, and the reasoning is that AF would have purchased a smaller airplane family? If you're going to disagree with a thought, I would expect there would be a stronger rationale behind it. The A220 family - current and potential - is much more viable as an A320neo substitute than the E2. AF could easily be looking at the A220 to replace/substitute for the A320/A320neos, explaining the 60 orders that outpace their current A318/319 fleet.
 
musman9853
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Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Thu Aug 01, 2019 2:24 am

lightsaber wrote:
ArchGuy1 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
They will downsize. The lowest yield passengers are obviously not profitable for AF.

Obviously they will allocate 77Ws to maximize profit. This is a system wide downsizing.

Even slot restricted airports have passengers who are not profitable to fly. This is a wise decision. I hope for future 779 sales, but first AF must reign in costs. The A359 or 779 will make more profit per flight. What is not to like?

Lightsaber

Actually, the 779 can carry as many passengers as a 747.

I typo"d. 789 will make more profit per flight for AF (or A359).

What is telling is the A35K isn't being discussed nor 777x. This is a significant intentional down gauge.

Lightsaber


?
are yields really that bad on the a380 that it's worth cutting the amount of seats nearly in half?
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foxtrotbravo21
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Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Thu Aug 01, 2019 3:51 am

It's a surprise that AF is going to reitire its A380s in 3 years time, as their youngest plane would only be 11 years old. And a sad note if that France is the "home" of the A380 where it is built.
 
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flee
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Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Thu Aug 01, 2019 4:03 am

foxtrotbravo21 wrote:
It's a surprise that AF is going to reitire its A380s in 3 years time, as their youngest plane would only be 11 years old. And a sad note if that France is the "home" of the A380 where it is built.

The bean counters have won. The old AF is dead - no more talk about French pride. Only money talks!
 
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Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Thu Aug 01, 2019 4:14 am

oschkosch wrote:
sergegva wrote:
Is it a firm order, as most media say, or a MOU as the new thread's title is saying?



The 60 + 30 options are firm IMHO.

A truly 'firm' order would be unconditional. There is no way a just announced order for 60 are all unconditional. Probably 3 tranches of 20, or 6 tranches of 10. Unlikely more than one tranche is currently unconditional, the rest conditional.

Options and MoU are no more than intentions, with the former stronger than the latter. If money changes hands, a token amount, and while maybe not refundable, can be used to make milestone payments on the unconditional and conditional aircraft ordered.
 
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Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Thu Aug 01, 2019 6:22 am

Congrats to Air France and Airbus for this order. Great plane indeed. Can't wait to fly on one of those!
Sad about the 380, but AF never succeed to find the right spot for it.
I would like to see the A330-900 in AF colors. It would be a very nice addition to the fleet. And not as expensive as the 35K which is important to AF finances. Maybe for 772 and some of the oldest 77W replacement?
Cheers Alex
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VV
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Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Thu Aug 01, 2019 6:49 am

excalibur wrote:
...
Sad about the 380, but AF never succeed to find the right spot for it.
...


If they retire such a young fleet it means they already already know that someone will take the 10 aircraft.

Does anyone know who will take those aircraft? What is the residual value (market value) of the fleet?
 
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frigatebird
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Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Thu Aug 01, 2019 7:15 am

musman9853 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
ArchGuy1 wrote:
Actually, the 779 can carry as many passengers as a 747.

I typo"d. 789 will make more profit per flight for AF (or A359).

What is telling is the A35K isn't being discussed nor 777x. This is a significant intentional down gauge.

Lightsaber


?
are yields really that bad on the a380 that it's worth cutting the amount of seats nearly in half?


What will probably happen is that A380 routes will be taken over by 77W, and some of the 77W routes will be operated by A359.

The situation that A339s and 789s are also considered but the A35K isn't, shows AF is considerably short of smaller widebody aircraft. They exchanged 6 remaining 789 orders with KLM for 7 A359s, but apparently AF still needs additional A339/789 sized aircraft. Therefore I think they have too many 77W too, and expect some of these eventually being replaced by A359. Do wonder what their largest aircraft will be when it's time to replace their entire 77W fleet.

Revelation wrote:
Note also that BA said it is using some 787-10s for 744 replacement, so the a.net idea of like kind substitution is not holding up very well these days.


KLM will also replace their remaining 744s with 787-10s, including the full pax ones.

ArchGuy1 wrote:
The only two aircraft that can replace the A380 are the 747-8I and the 777-9, so a bad decision on high density slot restricted routes.


I'm quite confident Ben Smith knows more about running an airline than you do :biggrin:
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Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Thu Aug 01, 2019 8:15 am

Erebus wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
What is telling is the A35K isn't being discussed nor 777x. This is a significant intentional down gauge.

Down-gauging the mainline fleet wouldn't be a problem if they intend to move low yielding travelers to low cost units. win-win on capacity management.


Or how about just not carry them?

If the fares don't pay their way, then not really much reason for the airlines to cater for it.
 
T4thH
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Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Thu Aug 01, 2019 8:15 am

VV wrote:
excalibur wrote:
...
Sad about the 380, but AF never succeed to find the right spot for it.
...


If they retire such a young fleet it means they already already know that someone will take the 10 aircraft.

Does anyone know who will take those aircraft? What is the residual value (market value) of the fleet?

They try to sell them back to Airbus (according rumors). So they want to have the same/comparable contract as Lufthansa got.
 
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LaunchDetected
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Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Thu Aug 01, 2019 8:27 am

VV wrote:
excalibur wrote:
...
Sad about the 380, but AF never succeed to find the right spot for it.
...


If they retire such a young fleet it means they already already know that someone will take the 10 aircraft.

Does anyone know who will take those aircraft? What is the residual value (market value) of the fleet?


5 frames are leased, 3 of them are supposed to be returned by 2020, the 2 others will stay until the end of the leasing contract.

The 5 other frames are fully-owned and AF is trying to sell them back to Airbus. Obviously, it's included in the negociation for the future long-haul contract (A330neo or A350).
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Jomar777
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Re: AF to order A220

Thu Aug 01, 2019 8:34 am

TWA772LR wrote:
Big blow to Embraer, IMO; with AF being an existing Emb customer.

I agree that A330neo or 787 is too small for the A380. AF loves the 77W so maybe they'll come around and sniff around Boeing for the 779.


Errr. why? Hop is an Embraer customer but Air France (mianline) is not. They have been solidly on Airbus portfolio since the beginning, why with the French Government owing part of the company. They have Boeings only on LH
 
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adambrau
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Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Thu Aug 01, 2019 8:47 am

The A380's have bad dispatch reliability, they have angled lay flat Business seats which are really uncompetitive, the cost for the cabin and aircraft updates are euros 80 million a pop, and the size creates customer grief at checkin at JFK. I understand they are a joy to fly notwithstanding in terms or roominess and quietness, but a louder Boeing that is actually more reliable is more use to the average/business customer. I love the plane, but I'm glad it days are numbered. Saw Ben Smith on CNN Express with Quest and like Smith's nerdy understated candor on what needs to get AF KLM group back. The next years could be good for AF KLM sans strikes and global recession. Prudent to be rid of the euros 800 million upgrade cost of the whales.
France is in the Air
 
smartplane
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Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Thu Aug 01, 2019 9:41 am

adambrau wrote:
Prudent to be rid of the euros 800 million upgrade cost of the whales.

For the leased aircraft, they will be up for accrued maintenance, pro-rata cost of checks, plus internal and external refurbishment as part of the end of lease balloon payment.

If there is a buyback in place with Airbus on the remaining owned A380's, they will be up for similar exit costs as on the five leased.

Of course they are always up for negotiation, depending on follow-on business for the lessor and OEM.

The big problem for AF, is they are one the slowest major airlines to depreciate, often up to 25 years (compared to EK 15 and QR 12). Presumably they will take an extraordinary loss asap, rather than spread pain over 2-3 years, so the turnaround is seen to occur immediately, so expect a significant write down in A380 values this financial year.
 
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Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Thu Aug 01, 2019 9:56 am

smartplane wrote:
adambrau wrote:
Prudent to be rid of the euros 800 million upgrade cost of the whales.

For the leased aircraft, they will be up for accrued maintenance, pro-rata cost of checks, plus internal and external refurbishment as part of the end of lease balloon payment.

If there is a buyback in place with Airbus on the remaining owned A380's, they will be up for similar exit costs as on the five leased.

Of course they are always up for negotiation, depending on follow-on business for the lessor and OEM.

The big problem for AF, is they are one the slowest major airlines to depreciate, often up to 25 years (compared to EK 15 and QR 12). Presumably they will take an extraordinary loss asap, rather than spread pain over 2-3 years, so the turnaround is seen to occur immediately, so expect a significant write down in A380 values this financial year.


Wouldn't be the first airline to take a mega hit in one year to promote the turnaround.
QF in 2014 took a massive AUD2.8 billion (EUR1.74 billion), and all everyone has seen since is how profitable they are.
 
mxaxai
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Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Thu Aug 01, 2019 11:49 am

smartplane wrote:
Presumably they will take an extraordinary loss asap, rather than spread pain over 2-3 years, so the turnaround is seen to occur immediately, so expect a significant write down in A380 values this financial year.

Tax-wise, spreading the write down over several years would probably yield some benefits. For the looks and publicity, however, I agree that a single cut would appear nicer - except for the year it happens in.

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