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Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Posted: Thu Aug 01, 2019 12:44 pm
by marcelh
DDR wrote:
MrBren wrote:
KLM should definitely drop E2.


KLM should definitely not listen to you.

I like the E-jets a lot, but after flown once with a Swiss A220 recently, I’m in love :cloudnine:

Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Posted: Thu Aug 01, 2019 1:25 pm
by SEU
I am so happy that another European airline is getting the A220. I flew on the Swiss A220 out of MAN recently, its by far the most comfy plane ive been in economy for years.

If anyone hasnt flown in one yet - I urge them to get some tickets booked.

I hope the A220 sells thousands and I reckon it will. They are perfect for airlines who need a plane in the 100-150 seat category, it weighs so little and is so profitable. Its CASM is close to a A320neo...

Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Posted: Thu Aug 01, 2019 5:01 pm
by VV
LaunchDetected wrote:
...

The 5 other frames are fully-owned and AF is trying to sell them back to Airbus. Obviously, it's included in the negociation for the future long-haul contract (A330neo or A350).


Is there any chance other airlines will follow this trick?

Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Posted: Thu Aug 01, 2019 5:23 pm
by T4thH
VV wrote:
LaunchDetected wrote:
...

The 5 other frames are fully-owned and AF is trying to sell them back to Airbus. Obviously, it's included in the negociation for the future long-haul contract (A330neo or A350).


Is there any chance other airlines will follow this trick?

They are only second. Lufthansa will sell back 6 between 2022 and 2023 to Airbus.

Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Posted: Thu Aug 01, 2019 5:25 pm
by ILNFlyer
Airbus taking over this program was a win-win for both companies. I do not see the same level of win-win for the Boeing/E-jet tie up.

Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Posted: Thu Aug 01, 2019 5:28 pm
by texl1649
Clearly, AF got some value out of guaranteed residuals here, and the discontinuation of the A380 program. They’ve needed to get rid of the 380’s for a while and the A220’s, if production does ramp up are a good fit so no real big deal that they didn’t even compete Embraer as the urgency to get the 380’s out was paramount here.

I suppose this also means the A319’s will not be washed again in AF colors.

Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Posted: Thu Aug 01, 2019 5:56 pm
by VV
T4thH wrote:
VV wrote:
LaunchDetected wrote:
...

The 5 other frames are fully-owned and AF is trying to sell them back to Airbus. Obviously, it's included in the negociation for the future long-haul contract (A330neo or A350).


Is there any chance other airlines will follow this trick?

They are only second. Lufthansa will sell back 6 between 2022 and 2023 to Airbus.


Thanks for the information.

What are they going to do with the acquired aircraft?

According to the previous comment there are five from Air France and you you said there are six others from Lufthansa.

Re: AF to order A220, replace A380 with 787 or A350?

Posted: Thu Aug 01, 2019 6:21 pm
by SelseyBill
Revelation wrote:
seahawk wrote:
It will be costly, but cost well spent, as higher production rates unlock economy of scales advantages that make the plane even more competitive. If they can bring it to around 25 frames per months on 2 lines, they should be well set.
Sure, but it's no small ask for the rest of the supply chain to double their output by a factor of two, or actually 2.5 since the original target BBD set was 10/month. Then you need to feel you can reliably sell 300/year for long enough to pay off all the facilities needed to double the scale of the production line. And then we have all the strategy issues around the Airbus/BBD/IQ partnership to consider.Above it was written the current plan is to get to 14/month in 2024.
It'll be interesting to see if an improved plan gets put into place or not.


Does anyone know if Mirabel; (and Mobile when it is up and running); operate around the clock? Does/will these plants run through the night? If they don't, it would seem a relatively easier way to boost production by running a night shift?

Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Posted: Thu Aug 01, 2019 6:27 pm
by inkjet7
Revelation wrote:

Chief executive Ben Smith said during a results briefing today that the group was in "advanced" talks with Airbus about ordering A330-900s or A350-900s and with Boeing about a possible deal for 787-9s as replacements for the double-deck type.


I don't get this really as in September 2011 AF/KL announced orders for 25 B787 with 25 options and 25 A350 with 35 options. All or most of the options can still be converted into orders.

Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Posted: Thu Aug 01, 2019 6:49 pm
by T4thH
VV wrote:
T4thH wrote:
VV wrote:

Is there any chance other airlines will follow this trick?

They are only second. Lufthansa will sell back 6 between 2022 and 2023 to Airbus.


Thanks for the information.

What are they going to do with the acquired aircraft?

According to the previous comment there are five from Air France and you you said there are six others from Lufthansa.


???
There is a limited secondary market for charter flights (as seen for the number 006).
https://www.abcdlist.nl/a380f/a380f.html
Most are still flying and the first AF and LH birds have been produced around 2010/2011; these have production numbers starting with around 40, so these are not "terrible teens". Still these have to be upgraded/to be modernized, before these can be sold again. So only Airbus knows (or even also do not know now) what they will do with them. if they will sell them again or part out and scrap them.
And as I know, LH has already sold the 6 back (2022 to 2023), AF will like to sell them back. If Airbus will take them and for which price? Additional many leased A380 will be given back at that time. I fear, there will be more jets, than the limited secondary market will need/willed to take.

EDIT: I think, the 6x LH A38ß0 will be fast and easily sold, as they have been maintained by Lufthansa Technik, so the best.
Regarding the AF A380s....they have to be heavily upgraded and modernized, to be again up to date. Does someone needs some parts?

Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Posted: Thu Aug 01, 2019 7:19 pm
by JerseyFlyer
T4thH wrote:
VV wrote:
LaunchDetected wrote:
...

The 5 other frames are fully-owned and AF is trying to sell them back to Airbus. Obviously, it's included in the negociation for the future long-haul contract (A330neo or A350).


Is there any chance other airlines will follow this trick?

They are only second. Lufthansa will sell back 6 between 2022 and 2023 to Airbus.

Don't forget the Emirates deal which is similar if not identical

Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Posted: Thu Aug 01, 2019 11:17 pm
by lightsaber
JerseyFlyer wrote:
T4thH wrote:
VV wrote:

Is there any chance other airlines will follow this trick?

They are only second. Lufthansa will sell back 6 between 2022 and 2023 to Airbus.

Don't forget the Emirates deal which is similar if not identical

Is the EK deal identical? I expect that will be an incredibly interesting web to unweave.

Lightsaber

Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Posted: Thu Aug 01, 2019 11:28 pm
by T4thH
lightsaber wrote:
JerseyFlyer wrote:
T4thH wrote:
They are only second. Lufthansa will sell back 6 between 2022 and 2023 to Airbus.

Don't forget the Emirates deal which is similar if not identical

Is the EK deal identical? I expect that will be an incredibly interesting web to unweave.

Lightsaber


No. Sold back to Airbus: the 6x by Lufthansa (contract seems already firmed) and now AF will also like to sell 5 back to them (ongoing), still now nothing else known or I have heard of.

Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Posted: Fri Aug 02, 2019 2:36 am
by smartplane
lightsaber wrote:
JerseyFlyer wrote:
T4thH wrote:
They are only second. Lufthansa will sell back 6 between 2022 and 2023 to Airbus.

Don't forget the Emirates deal which is similar if not identical

Is the EK deal identical? I expect that will be an incredibly interesting web to unweave.

The A340 web hasn't been 'unweaved' yet, so unlikely the LH 748i or EK deals will. Like the current RR compensation deal, and under negotiation MAX, breach of confidentiality puts an immediate end to the agreement.

Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Posted: Fri Aug 02, 2019 6:22 am
by JerseyFlyer
lightsaber wrote:
JerseyFlyer wrote:
T4thH wrote:
They are only second. Lufthansa will sell back 6 between 2022 and 2023 to Airbus.

Don't forget the Emirates deal which is similar if not identical

Is the EK deal identical? I expect that will be an incredibly interesting web to unweave.

Lightsaber

Not identical. Similar in the sense that A330 / 350 are arriving coincident with A380 departing in a linked deal.

Re: AF to order A220, replace A380 with 787 or A350?

Posted: Fri Aug 02, 2019 6:38 am
by LaunchDetected
SelseyBill wrote:
Does anyone know if Mirabel; (and Mobile when it is up and running); operate around the clock? Does/will these plants run through the night? If they don't, it would seem a relatively easier way to boost production by running a night shift?


You can't increase the final assembly line production rate if the suppliers are not able to follow the ramp-up.

Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Posted: Fri Aug 02, 2019 8:53 am
by DominoxX
Air France decided to up frequency to SCL on the 787 instead of sending the A380 as intented (per sources at SCL airport)

Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Posted: Fri Aug 02, 2019 9:02 am
by mig17
https://www.air-journal.fr/2019-08-02-a ... 14117.html

Ben Smith says in interview :
- « Pas plus de neuf biréacteurs long-courrier » seront commandés pour le compte de la compagnie aérienne française, en remplacement des dix A380 de 516 sièges.
=> no more than 9 widebody twin will be ordered for AF to replace the 10 516 seats A380.

- Toute nouvelle acquisition pouvant être associée à une autre visant à remplacer des appareils plus anciens dans la flotte d’Air France mais aussi de KLM. « Si une offre convenable venait de Boeing ou d’Airbus, nous chercherions à remplacer d’autres aéronefs », a déclaré Ben Smith. Selon qui des négociations « avancées » sont en cours avec Airbus sur des A330-900 ou A350-900, et avec Boeing sur des 787-9 en remplacement des A380
=> the 9 A/C for A380 replacement order will be associated with a larger one aiming to replacement more older A/C in AF and KLM fleet if an acceptable offer is made by Boeing or Airbus. Some advance negociation are held with Airbus for A339 or A359 and with Boeing for 789 to replace A380.

So 9 A/C, A339 or A359 or 789, part of a much larger group order will be ordered to replace A380, the last one leaving in 2022. AF is not looking at the 77X anymore.



https://investir.lesechos.fr/actions/ac ... 865241.php

Interrogé par ailleurs sur d'éventuelles commandes d'avions pour accompagner la croissance de la compagnie low-cost Transavia, Ben Smith a indiqué que le groupe aérien ne comptait pas "pour l'instant" acquérir des Boeing 737 MAX, le monocouloir de Boeing cloué au sol depuis le début de l'année.
=> AF group isn't ordering the 737 MAX for Transavia "for now" ...

Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Posted: Fri Aug 02, 2019 9:45 am
by MrBren
mig17 wrote:
So 9 A/C, A339 or A359 or 789, part of a much larger group order will be ordered to replace A380, the last one leaving in 2022. AF is not looking at the 77X anymore.


AF should get rid of the noisy 777 and 330 fleet and replace it with the combo 339 and 359.

Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Posted: Fri Aug 02, 2019 9:56 am
by inkjet7
As AF/KL has 25 options on the 787 and 35 on the A350 from the 2011 deal does this mean they are negotiating the terms ons those?

Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Posted: Fri Aug 02, 2019 10:21 am
by frigatebird
mig17 wrote:
https://www.air-journal.fr/2019-08-02-air-france-les-capacites-de-la380-ne-seront-pas-compensees-5214117.html

Ben Smith says in interview : (....)
=> the 9 A/C for A380 replacement order will be associated with a larger one aiming to replacement more older A/C in AF and KLM fleet if an acceptable offer is made by Boeing or Airbus. Some advance negociation are held with Airbus for A339 or A359 and with Boeing for 789 to replace A380.

So 9 A/C, A339 or A359 or 789, part of a much larger group order will be ordered to replace A380, the last one leaving in 2022. AF is not looking at the 77X anymore.


AF perhaps not, but I can assure you KL is ;)
It's looking more and more like AF will move to an all Airbus fleet while KL is going all Boeing.

mig17 wrote:
https://investir.lesechos.fr/actions/ac ... 865241.php

Interrogé par ailleurs sur d'éventuelles commandes d'avions pour accompagner la croissance de la compagnie low-cost Transavia, Ben Smith a indiqué que le groupe aérien ne comptait pas "pour l'instant" acquérir des Boeing 737 MAX, le monocouloir de Boeing cloué au sol depuis le début de l'année.
=> AF group isn't ordering the 737 MAX for Transavia "for now" ...


I suppose they're waiting for the MAX situation to clear up, and see how many production slots have opened up and at what price.

inkjet7 wrote:
As AF/KL has 25 options on the 787 and 35 on the A350 from the 2011 deal does this mean they are negotiating the terms ons those?


Possibly, maybe they're trying to get a trade in discount from Airbus for the 5 A380s they own. And perhaps with Airbus and Boeing for earlier delivery slots than the ones they have options on.

Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Posted: Fri Aug 02, 2019 10:53 am
by marcogr12
If they are going to order 787 or A350s to replace the A380s why not go for the bigger versions of 787-10 and/or A350-1000 instead of the smaller 787-9/A359s?

Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Posted: Fri Aug 02, 2019 11:01 am
by inkjet7
marcogr12 wrote:
If they are going to order 787 or A350s to replace the A380s why not go for the bigger versions of 787-10 and/or A350-1000 instead of the smaller 787-9/A359s?


AF complained about the price of the A350-1000 recently. Negotiations ongoing it would seem. We know KL is talking to Boeing about up-gauging the six 787-9's previously destined for AF.

Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Posted: Fri Aug 02, 2019 11:18 am
by frigatebird
frigatebird wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Note also that BA said it is using some 787-10s for 744 replacement, so the a.net idea of like kind substitution is not holding up very well these days.


KLM will also replace their remaining 744s with 787-10s, including the full pax ones.


OK, I need to make correction on that statement. Just read in the KLM thread on Dutch aviation forum Scramble that KLM will receive 2 more 77W in November and December 2020. It was posted by user Nemaco, who is a very reliable source (he also mentioned registration numbers: PH-BVV and PH-BVW). So some remaining full pax 744 will indeed be replaced by 77W. It's not clear to me whether the orders are direct or if they're coming from a leasing company, but I suspect the latter.

It was also mentioned the final 6x 787s originally destined for AF but will now go to KL have been been formally converted from 787-9 to 787-10. Scheduled delivery dates have been pulled forward: KL's 28th and final 787 (for now) will be delivered in May 2022. There is speculation the A333 will leave KL's fleet.

Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Posted: Fri Aug 02, 2019 1:03 pm
by marcelh
frigatebird wrote:
frigatebird wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Note also that BA said it is using some 787-10s for 744 replacement, so the a.net idea of like kind substitution is not holding up very well these days.


KLM will also replace their remaining 744s with 787-10s, including the full pax ones.


OK, I need to make correction on that statement. Just read in the KLM thread on Dutch aviation forum Scramble that KLM will receive 2 more 77W in November and December 2020. It was posted by user Nemaco, who is a very reliable source (he also mentioned registration numbers: PH-BVV and PH-BVW). So some remaining full pax 744 will indeed be replaced by 77W. It's not clear to me whether the orders are direct or if they're coming from a leasing company, but I suspect the latter.

It was also mentioned the final 6x 787s originally destined for AF but will now go to KL have been been formally converted from 787-9 to 787-10. Scheduled delivery dates have been pulled forward: KL's 28th and final 787 (for now) will be delivered in May 2022. There is speculation the A333 will leave KL's fleet.

So more ”acient” new 77W, next to the just received 737NG’ by KLM. Not really an enviromental aware fleet....

Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Posted: Fri Aug 02, 2019 1:15 pm
by inkjet7
KLM is currently replacing their remaining 747's. Capacity wise the 77W's replace 744's so they are greener than the frames they replace.

Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Posted: Fri Aug 02, 2019 1:37 pm
by Jetty
marcelh wrote:
frigatebird wrote:
frigatebird wrote:


KLM will also replace their remaining 744s with 787-10s, including the full pax ones.


OK, I need to make correction on that statement. Just read in the KLM thread on Dutch aviation forum Scramble that KLM will receive 2 more 77W in November and December 2020. It was posted by user Nemaco, who is a very reliable source (he also mentioned registration numbers: PH-BVV and PH-BVW). So some remaining full pax 744 will indeed be replaced by 77W. It's not clear to me whether the orders are direct or if they're coming from a leasing company, but I suspect the latter.

It was also mentioned the final 6x 787s originally destined for AF but will now go to KL have been been formally converted from 787-9 to 787-10. Scheduled delivery dates have been pulled forward: KL's 28th and final 787 (for now) will be delivered in May 2022. There is speculation the A333 will leave KL's fleet.

So more ”acient” new 77W, next to the just received 737NG’ by KLM. Not really an enviromental aware fleet....

They order the newest category that Boeing has available for every capacity. MAX/777X don't have reliable delivery dates.

Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Posted: Fri Aug 02, 2019 1:43 pm
by SteelChair
VV wrote:
T4thH wrote:
VV wrote:

Is there any chance other airlines will follow this trick?

They are only second. Lufthansa will sell back 6 between 2022 and 2023 to Airbus.


Thanks for the information.

What are they going to do with the acquired aircraft?

According to the previous comment there are five from Air France and you you said there are six others from Lufthansa.


Every airplane scrapped is one they don't have to support. Think Beech Starship.

Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Posted: Fri Aug 02, 2019 1:49 pm
by SteelChair
The thread seems to have drifted to an AF widebody discussion.

The reality is that this order is a huge win for the A220 program. Airbus will continue to ramp up the rate and continue to gain orders as they do. They're getting real orders from real airlines now. 50ish deliveries this year, perhaps 70 next year, and then Mobile kicks in. I foresee 5-7,000 program deliveries.

Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Posted: Fri Aug 02, 2019 2:00 pm
by marcelh
inkjet7 wrote:
KLM is currently replacing their remaining 747's. Capacity wise the 77W's replace 744's so they are greener than the frames they replace.


True, but in a country which is becoming more an more environmental aware (they even want to get rid of natural gas), adding 77W and 737NG to your fleet doesn’t make sense.

Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Posted: Fri Aug 02, 2019 2:06 pm
by marcelh
SteelChair wrote:
The thread seems to have drifted to an AF widebody discussion.

:white:
The reality is that this order is a huge win for the A220 program. Airbus will continue to ramp up the rate and continue to gain orders as they do. They're getting real orders from real airlines now. 50ish deliveries this year, perhaps 70 next year, and then Mobile kicks in. I foresee 5-7,000 program deliveries.

That’s a lot! That means at least 250 a year for 20 years. But adding an A220-500 will help and fits into the future AF fleet as well

Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Posted: Fri Aug 02, 2019 2:25 pm
by JetBuddy
According to this article, Air France is looking to cut short haul capacity by 15%.

That could explain why Air France signed a 60 A220 MOU order on top of the firm 60.

The first 60 would replace A318 and A319 + 10 of the oldest A320.

The latter 60 could replace the remaining A320 and A321 fleet in the future.

That would certainly cut capacity by 15%. But it would also mean a less dynamic fleet.

My guess is that the first 60 will replace A318, A319 and the oldest A320. But I think the 2nd half will be firmed only when Air France knows what Boeing and Airbus will have to offer in this segment. It could be years from now.

https://simpleflying.com/air-france-a220-order/

Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Posted: Fri Aug 02, 2019 4:24 pm
by VV
Air France orders a lot of A220. Is that a sign Airbus will announce some A220 cancellations?
I have been waiting for some confirmation for these orders since long time.
  • 10 A220-100 Braathens
  • 10 A220-100 Gulf Air
  • 14 A220-300 Ilyushin Finance
  • 5 A220-300 Iraqi Airways
  • 40 A220-300 Macquarie
  • 10 A220-100 Odyssey
  • 40 A220-300 Republic Airways
  • 16 A220-300 SaudiGulf
  • 2 A220-300 VIP

Since there are more and more solid orders, it may be time to do some housekeeping in the order book.

Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Posted: Fri Aug 02, 2019 5:45 pm
by SteelChair
JetBuddy wrote:
According to this article, Air France is looking to cut short haul capacity by 15%.

That could explain why Air France signed a 60 A220 MOU order on top of the firm 60.

The first 60 would replace A318 and A319 + 10 of the oldest A320.

The latter 60 could replace the remaining A320 and A321 fleet in the future.

That would certainly cut capacity by 15%. But it would also mean a less dynamic fleet.

My guess is that the first 60 will replace A318, A319 and the oldest A320. But I think the 2nd half will be firmed only when Air France knows what Boeing and Airbus will have to offer in this segment. It could be years from now.

https://simpleflying.com/air-france-a220-order/


This is a pattern we will see over and over, 319s being replaced by A220s. 25% lower fuel costs per seat. I will add that there will be many A319s and 737-7s never ordered because of the 220. Even some A320 and 738s will be replaced by A220s.

No one else has anything to offer in the 5 abreast segment.

Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Posted: Sat Aug 03, 2019 9:24 am
by LA704
VV wrote:
Air France orders a lot of A220. Is that a sign Airbus will announce some A220 cancellations?
I have been waiting for some confirmation for these orders since long time.
  • 10 A220-100 Braathens
  • 10 A220-100 Gulf Air
  • 14 A220-300 Ilyushin Finance
  • 5 A220-300 Iraqi Airways
  • 40 A220-300 Macquarie
  • 10 A220-100 Odyssey
  • 40 A220-300 Republic Airways
  • 16 A220-300 SaudiGulf
  • 2 A220-300 VIP

Since there are more and more solid orders, it may be time to do some housekeeping in the order book.


I don't see any reason why Macquarie or the VIP's would cancel their orders.
Different story for Ilyushin. And I can see Republic selling their order to someone else...

Re: AF to order A220

Posted: Sat Aug 03, 2019 9:55 am
by SurlyBonds
qf789 wrote:
The theory that the A330neo or 787 is too small for the A380 has already been debunked. Qantas replaced MEL-DXB-LHR (an A388) with a 789, MEL-PER-LHR..


That is hardly evidence in support of your point. The use of a 789 on that route is entirely due to the length of the PER-LHR nonstop.

Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Posted: Sat Aug 03, 2019 2:32 pm
by VV
LA704 wrote:
VV wrote:
Air France orders a lot of A220. Is that a sign Airbus will announce some A220 cancellations?
I have been waiting for some confirmation for these orders since long time.
  • 10 A220-100 Braathens
  • 10 A220-100 Gulf Air
  • 14 A220-300 Ilyushin Finance
  • 5 A220-300 Iraqi Airways
  • 40 A220-300 Macquarie
  • 10 A220-100 Odyssey
  • 40 A220-300 Republic Airways
  • 16 A220-300 SaudiGulf
  • 2 A220-300 VIP

Since there are more and more solid orders, it may be time to do some housekeeping in the order book.


I don't see any reason why Macquarie or the VIP's would cancel their orders.
Different story for Ilyushin. And I can see Republic selling their order to someone else...


I have no evidence for the scenario you mentioned either. I am just wondering if those orders are still as firm as they are supposed to be.

Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Posted: Sat Aug 03, 2019 2:57 pm
by SEU
VV wrote:
Air France orders a lot of A220. Is that a sign Airbus will announce some A220 cancellations?
I have been waiting for some confirmation for these orders since long time.
  • 10 A220-100 Braathens
  • 10 A220-100 Gulf Air
  • 14 A220-300 Ilyushin Finance
  • 5 A220-300 Iraqi Airways
  • 40 A220-300 Macquarie
  • 10 A220-100 Odyssey
  • 40 A220-300 Republic Airways
  • 16 A220-300 SaudiGulf
  • 2 A220-300 VIP

Since there are more and more solid orders, it may be time to do some housekeeping in the order book.


You can rule out the crowd funded airline in Odyssey, I doubt that Illyushin will get them either, but the rest, why would you think they are not getting them ?

Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Posted: Sat Aug 03, 2019 3:02 pm
by oschkosch
VV wrote:
LA704 wrote:
VV wrote:
Air France orders a lot of A220. Is that a sign Airbus will announce some A220 cancellations?
I have been waiting for some confirmation for these orders since long time.
  • 10 A220-100 Braathens
  • 10 A220-100 Gulf Air
  • 14 A220-300 Ilyushin Finance
  • 5 A220-300 Iraqi Airways
  • 40 A220-300 Macquarie
  • 10 A220-100 Odyssey
  • 40 A220-300 Republic Airways
  • 16 A220-300 SaudiGulf
  • 2 A220-300 VIP

Since there are more and more solid orders, it may be time to do some housekeeping in the order book.


I don't see any reason why Macquarie or the VIP's would cancel their orders.
Different story for Ilyushin. And I can see Republic selling their order to someone else...


I have no evidence for the scenario you mentioned either. I am just wondering if those orders are still as firm as they are supposed to be.
Since you seem to be having sleepless nights about that, why not open a new thread?

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Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Posted: Sat Aug 03, 2019 3:20 pm
by Skywatcher
I wonder what kind of deposits were submitted with the orders by the "questionable" airlines?

Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Posted: Sat Aug 03, 2019 7:51 pm
by smartplane
Skywatcher wrote:
I wonder what kind of deposits were submitted with the orders by the "questionable" airlines?

IATA has a generic contract template.

A & B have modified versions of this as their own templates, used for small and medium customers. Large customers have their own templates with A & B. But the key parts are side agreements, usually unpublished / unreported, complete with onerous confidentiality clauses.

The above have removed the shambles which existed when there were many more air frame OEM's.

Where smaller OEM's are involved, especially offering new to market models, contract flexibility demanded by the buyer can lead to 'weak' contracts, with low or even zero front end milestone payments.

Also, at what stage of the contract process has the order reached. A conditional order (on finance, delivery dates, other T&C's), with no frames or engines under construction for the order (so no milestone payments due), could have token, even 100% refundable deposits.

One of many advantages for OEM's aligning with A & B respectively, is those companies confidence, firmness and knowledge of dealing with large customers.

Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Posted: Sat Aug 03, 2019 8:19 pm
by VV
Skywatcher wrote:
I wonder what kind of deposits were submitted with the orders by the "questionable" airlines?


Zero?

Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Posted: Mon Aug 05, 2019 5:05 pm
by wrongwayup
LA704 wrote:
VV wrote:
Air France orders a lot of A220. Is that a sign Airbus will announce some A220 cancellations?
I have been waiting for some confirmation for these orders since long time.
  • 10 A220-100 Braathens
  • 10 A220-100 Gulf Air
  • 14 A220-300 Ilyushin Finance
  • 5 A220-300 Iraqi Airways
  • 40 A220-300 Macquarie
  • 10 A220-100 Odyssey
  • 40 A220-300 Republic Airways
  • 16 A220-300 SaudiGulf
  • 2 A220-300 VIP

Since there are more and more solid orders, it may be time to do some housekeeping in the order book.


I don't see any reason why Macquarie or the VIP's would cancel their orders.
Different story for Ilyushin. And I can see Republic selling their order to someone else...


I'm with you, I wouldn't group Macquarie with the zombies on that list. Can't speak for the VIP order(s) though.

Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Posted: Tue Aug 06, 2019 7:37 am
by MrBren
AF CEO, Anne Rigail, said in an interview to France Info that AF would be interested in a stretched A220.

Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Posted: Tue Aug 06, 2019 8:11 am
by Amiga500
MrBren wrote:
AF CEO, Anne Rigail, said in an interview to France Info that AF would be interested in a stretched A220.


I would imagine any airline looking at a 160-170 seater would like to see a stretched A220. Even if they don't buy, its additional pricing pressure into the market.

Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Posted: Tue Aug 06, 2019 8:22 am
by scbriml
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
I still think it’s a niche airplane that will struggle to reach even the CRJ’s order book. Too big to be a low cost regional plane, too small to be a mainliner.


We'll see when it's been on sale for as long as the CRJ has today, but sales are steadily growing.

As to size, maybe you need to ask the growing number of mainline airlines that have purchased the A220 whether they think it's too small? :scratchchin:

Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Posted: Tue Aug 06, 2019 8:39 am
by aerokiwi
MrBren wrote:
AF CEO, Anne Rigail, said in an interview to France Info that AF would be interested in a stretched A220.


I think this is probably the biggest sleeper issue with the 220 with AF - do they stretch to an A320-sized replacement? An interesting conundrum from our perspective as observers - I'm sure most on Anet, myself included, see it as perfectly logical. But thinking bout the AF situation, I now don't see it happening. Happy to be wrong though!

To date, or since about 2000, it appears most carriers see the 170-190 seat narrowbody as the sweetspot for their narrowbody fleet, upgauging from the previous 140-150 seaters to make this the standard category for shorthaul flights. Could we see a change whereby legacies that tend Airbus, in particular, switch to 220s for smaller markets, or to cater to "premium" pax, and go for the 321s for the denser or hub constrained routes, skipping the 320-sized segment altogether?

You don't need to fill every capacity gap and the marginal cost of the 321NEO would likely just be the additional flight attendant with some additional weight charges. In exchange, you lower per-seat costs and open up capacity to compete with LCCs on denser and peak vacation routes.

From Airbus' perspective, they probably figure that the 220-500 would be unnecessary because an Airbus-inclined airline like AF isn't likely to switch to Boeing for the upper-narrowbody segment and would just stick to a smaller aircraft (the 223), with a capacity gap to the 321 or just purchase the 320 anyway. Essentially it would just cannibalise their own narrowbody range but cost, what, an extra billion or so in development costs? I guess you'd have to hunt around for carriers that could potentially go A220 and 737, then weigh up whether or not you'd win the 737-sized battle with a 225 offering as well. Maybe Delta and, at a stretch, United, fit that bill? Air Canada?

Armchair CEOing now, if I was AF, I'd push for a 225 but be pretty happy with a 221/223/321 combination. It might also introduce enough capacity to enable better competition with LCCs on trunk routes and have a fantastic jet for the premium or frequency-demanding markets.

TLDR - sadly, I doubt the 220-500 will come about, even for AF.

Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Posted: Tue Aug 06, 2019 9:50 am
by VV
MrBren wrote:
AF CEO, Anne Rigail, said in an interview to France Info that AF would be interested in a stretched A220.


She is right. A stretched A220 fits extremely well into Air France's fleet.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... ch-460099/

In addition it would provide a reason to defer part of the order.

Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Posted: Tue Aug 06, 2019 10:44 am
by scbriml
aerokiwi wrote:
From Airbus' perspective, they probably figure that the 220-500 would be unnecessary because an Airbus-inclined airline like AF isn't likely to switch to Boeing for the upper-narrowbody segment and would just stick to a smaller aircraft (the 223), with a capacity gap to the 321 or just purchase the 320 anyway.


Personally, I see a possible A220-500 as being way down Airbus's list of priorities, though it seems to be the favourite fantasy of many here.

As to "Airbus inclined" airlines being unlikely to switch to Boeing, many would have put IAG in that category (accepting it's not yet firm).

Re: AF signs MOU for 60 A220 plus 30 options and 30 purchase rights, A380's to be retired by 2022

Posted: Tue Aug 06, 2019 11:07 am
by Naincompetent
I am not sure that such a stretch is way down in Airbus' list.
The way I see it, they are establishing a customer base for when the A320 replacement will become necessary.
I seriously doubt that the A320 will be getting major improvements. That means that the next A plane in this category will be a clean sheet, and it does not have to be a 1for 1 A320 remplacement. It could very well be a kind of NMA plane sitting somewhere between 321 and 330, leaving the 320 market to a streche 220.
It won't happen tomorrow, but I doubt Airbus would so quickly discard the idea of a stretch if the demand is there and if it gives them a long term advantage.

/armchairCEO off