American Airlines announced on Sunday it will be extending the cancellation of it's 115 scheduled daily Boeing 737 Max flights through November 2 2019.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/boeing-737 ... 019-07-14/

"The Wall Street Journal also reported Sunday that fixing the 737 Max's faulty flight-control software and completing other steps to start carrying passengers will likely stretch into 2020. Unnamed officials at the FAA and pilot-union leaders were quoted as saying that no firm timeline has been established but one scenario anticipates the plane could return to the air in January 2020".

The first new revenue flight of the MAX will also be the first revenue flight into BER.

By January 2020 Boeing will have at least 400 built 737's lying around, so about $50bn of stock, is continuing production sustainable?

BoeingVista wrote:

By January 2020 Boeing will have at least 400 built 737's lying around, so about $50bn of stock, is continuing production sustainable?

Is laying off 6000 workers and being forced to pay Federally mandated WARN penalties an option either? Imagine if you were a assembly worker who did nothing to cause this mess.

May it be possible (dare I even think this) that the MAX will never fly again??

426Shadow wrote:

BoeingVista wrote:

By January 2020 Boeing will have at least 400 built 737's lying around, so about $50bn of stock, is continuing production sustainable?

Is laying off 6000 workers and being forced to pay Federally mandated WARN penalties an option either? Imagine if you were a assembly worker who did nothing to cause this mess.

Sadly workers of companies the world over are often the casualties of the poor judgements and decisions of their corporate leaders. Boeing will almost certainly act first in the interests of their shareholders.

426Shadow wrote:

BoeingVista wrote:

By January 2020 Boeing will have at least 400 built 737's lying around, so about $50bn of stock, is continuing production sustainable?

Is laying off 6000 workers and being forced to pay Federally mandated WARN penalties an option either? Imagine if you were a assembly worker who did nothing to cause this mess.

That happens all of the time though in all industries. If this situation is fixed in the next 6 or so months, there should be no problems but if it continues any longer than that than I would expect to see at least some temporary layoffs or reassignments.

Doubt this is still long enough. Gonna be rough if these are out for Xmas/New Years timeframe which seems likely at this point.

Super80Fan wrote:

426Shadow wrote:

BoeingVista wrote:

By January 2020 Boeing will have at least 400 built 737's lying around, so about $50bn of stock, is continuing production sustainable?

Is laying off 6000 workers and being forced to pay Federally mandated WARN penalties an option either? Imagine if you were a assembly worker who did nothing to cause this mess.

That happens all of the time though in all industries. If this situation is fixed in the next 6 or so months, there should be no problems but if it continues any longer than that than I would expect to see at least some temporary layoffs or reassignments.

Boeing will most likely be building these planes without progress payments and thats going to hammer cashflow which will hit share price, I think Boeing will move with a large rate cut if becomes clear that it will be 2020 before MAX flys again.

426Shadow wrote:

BoeingVista wrote:

By January 2020 Boeing will have at least 400 built 737's lying around, so about $50bn of stock, is continuing production sustainable?

Is laying off 6000 workers and being forced to pay Federally mandated WARN penalties an option either? Imagine if you were a assembly worker who did nothing to cause this mess.

Why should workers be employed to build a plane that isn't flyable, just for the sake of "employment"?

Swadian wrote:

426Shadow wrote:

BoeingVista wrote:

By January 2020 Boeing will have at least 400 built 737's lying around, so about $50bn of stock, is continuing production sustainable?

Is laying off 6000 workers and being forced to pay Federally mandated WARN penalties an option either? Imagine if you were a assembly worker who did nothing to cause this mess.

Why should workers be employed to build a plane that isn't flyable, just for the sake of "employment"?

Because it wasn't the assembly line workers who made it non airworthy.

zkojq wrote:

Swadian wrote:

426Shadow wrote:

Is laying off 6000 workers and being forced to pay Federally mandated WARN penalties an option either? Imagine if you were a assembly worker who did nothing to cause this mess.

Why should workers be employed to build a plane that isn't flyable, just for the sake of "employment"?

Because it wasn't the assembly line workers who made it non airworthy.

Not to be insensitive but why would fault matter here? If they can’t get the plane delivered, and don’t have a near to medium term plan to do so, why keep producing it?

Does anyone know if the line/supply chain is still setup for NG builds? I could see a scenario where they switch back for a period if the grounding gets extended further similar to the 767 deals made during the 787 ground/production delays a few years back.

It doesn't matter if management screwed up, all will pay some price. Most senior managers wil not be held accountable, if past practice is any indication

Things just look darker and darker for Boeing.
Good thing for them they're "too big to fail." I'll bet they're so glad they listened to Southwest and planned to keep building 737s ad infinitum.

Out of curiosity (and I am not trying to be "that guy" with this question), has the NG tooling been destroyed yet?

HPAEAA wrote:

zkojq wrote:

Swadian wrote:

Why should workers be employed to build a plane that isn't flyable, just for the sake of "employment"?

Because it wasn't the assembly line workers who made it non airworthy.

Not to be insensitive but why would fault matter here? If they can’t get the plane delivered, and don’t have a near to medium term plan to do so, why keep producing it?

Does anyone know if the line/supply chain is still setup for NG builds? I could see a scenario where they switch back for a period if the grounding gets extended further similar to the 767 deals made during the 787 ground/production delays a few years back.

But why would a customer accept a new NG if it lacks the promised operating economic advantages of the MAX? Are you suggesting this is offered along with an substantial additional discount in price. I wonder if such a deal offers Boeing any commercial margin on a new build sufficient for it to make sense?

All in all the quick 'software fix' is turning into a delay of quite alarming duration - who is to say there won't be further delays to come?

BoeingVista wrote:

Super80Fan wrote:

426Shadow wrote:

Is laying off 6000 workers and being forced to pay Federally mandated WARN penalties an option either? Imagine if you were a assembly worker who did nothing to cause this mess.

That happens all of the time though in all industries. If this situation is fixed in the next 6 or so months, there should be no problems but if it continues any longer than that than I would expect to see at least some temporary layoffs or reassignments.

Boeing will most likely be building these planes without progress payments and thats going to hammer cashflow which will hit share price, I think Boeing will move with a large rate cut if becomes clear that it will be 2020 before MAX flys again.

I believe airlines are still required to pay the progress payments according to their contracts with Boeing.
Once Boeing missed the delivery deadline, then they begin to entitle to claim compensations for the delay.

HJM wrote:

May it be possible (dare I even think this) that the MAX will never fly again??

No, it will fly again and be a successful model. Too many airlines need new replacement aircraft, and Airbus does not possess the capacity to fill the void if the MAX didn't fly.

Swadian wrote:

426Shadow wrote:

BoeingVista wrote:

By January 2020 Boeing will have at least 400 built 737's lying around, so about $50bn of stock, is continuing production sustainable?

Is laying off 6000 workers and being forced to pay Federally mandated WARN penalties an option either? Imagine if you were a assembly worker who did nothing to cause this mess.

Why should workers be employed to build a plane that isn't flyable, just for the sake of "employment"?

If Boeing halts production they are still going to be paying workers either directly (e.g. reduced pay and benefits) or indirectly (e.g. unemployment type stuff).

Although they probably would save some money halting production, if and when the MAX is being delivered again they'd have to pay the workers fully to build each plane. If Boeing is confident it'll fly again it's cheaper in the long run to keep building.

anymaninfc wrote:

HJM wrote:

May it be possible (dare I even think this) that the MAX will never fly again??

No, it will fly again and be a successful model. Too many airlines need new replacement aircraft, and Airbus does not possess the capacity to fill the void if the MAX didn't fly.

Further to that, I expect if the MAX never saw passanger service again there would be multiple military customers around the globe who would happily fly a converted MAX, especially if Boeing was selling them on the cheap.

ukoverlander wrote:

426Shadow wrote:

BoeingVista wrote:

By January 2020 Boeing will have at least 400 built 737's lying around, so about $50bn of stock, is continuing production sustainable?

Is laying off 6000 workers and being forced to pay Federally mandated WARN penalties an option either? Imagine if you were a assembly worker who did nothing to cause this mess.

Sadly workers of companies the world over are often the casualties of the poor judgements and decisions of their corporate leaders. Boeing will almost certainly act first in the interests of their shareholders.

Yep, and Jim McNerney who ran Boeing into the ground will still be getting his $3,600,000 retirement from Boeing while the workers who actually contribute something positive to Boeing will suffer.

anymaninfc wrote:

HJM wrote:

May it be possible (dare I even think this) that the MAX will never fly again??

No, it will fly again and be a successful model. Too many airlines need new replacement aircraft, and Airbus does not possess the capacity to fill the void if the MAX didn't fly.

I can't see how authorities around the world are going to say "Well, there are still defect in the aircraft system, but airlines want to.use the aircraft so let's allow airlines put passengers on them"

c933103 wrote:

anymaninfc wrote:

HJM wrote:

May it be possible (dare I even think this) that the MAX will never fly again??

No, it will fly again and be a successful model. Too many airlines need new replacement aircraft, and Airbus does not possess the capacity to fill the void if the MAX didn't fly.

I can't see how authorities around the world are going to say "Well, there are still defect in the aircraft system, but airlines want to.use the aircraft so let's allow airlines put passengers on them"

The problem for the MAX when (not if) it returns to service is the next crash, and there will be one (unfortunately all mass produced aircraft models will eventually suffer a hull loss), could ground it permanently. The program is on borrowed time..

hongkongflyer wrote:

BoeingVista wrote:

Super80Fan wrote:

That happens all of the time though in all industries. If this situation is fixed in the next 6 or so months, there should be no problems but if it continues any longer than that than I would expect to see at least some temporary layoffs or reassignments.

Boeing will most likely be building these planes without progress payments and thats going to hammer cashflow which will hit share price, I think Boeing will move with a large rate cut if becomes clear that it will be 2020 before MAX flys again.

I believe airlines are still required to pay the progress payments according to their contracts with Boeing.
Once Boeing missed the delivery deadline, then they begin to entitle to claim compensations for the delay.

Most progress (milestone) payments are funded, referred to as pre-shipment finance. When Boeing was predicting the MAX would return to service in June/July, no problem. Now MAX pre-shipment funding has dried up, so no progress payments.

CAF, delivery and retention milestone payments have not been made since the first groundings.

No customer or financier is drawing down funding for post-shipment finance, because no MAX are being delivered.

Also, tranches of conditional orders, would normally convert over the grounding period to unconditional orders, with a payment related to the changed status. These also aren't happening.

All / most MAX customers will have executed a compensation / confidentiality agreement along the lines used by RR, including an arbitration process.

What a fiasco for Boeing.

How long can this go on before this really becomes an issue for them?

jfklganyc wrote:

What a fiasco for Boeing.

How long can this go on before this really becomes an issue for them?

It really already is an issue for them, yet the airlines have largely remained patient.

IMO if the groundings go through the Thanksgiving / Xmas / New Years travel peak, airlines will lose that patience, and investors will lose patience at hundreds more 737s built that can't be monitized.

Muilenberg may not own the creation of the MAX's problems but he does own the disaster recovery strategy, which was in essence a big bet that the problem could be resolved relatively quickly.

If he loses that bet, he loses his job, IMO, and at this point in time the trend line is not looking good.

Revelation wrote:

jfklganyc wrote:

What a fiasco for Boeing.

How long can this go on before this really becomes an issue for them?

It really already is an issue for them, yet the airlines have largely remained patient.

IMO if the groundings go through the Thanksgiving / Xmas / New Years travel peak, airlines will lose that patience, and investors will lose patience at hundreds more 737s built that can't be monitized.

Muilenberg may not own the creation of the MAX's problems but he does own the disaster recovery strategy, which was in essence a big bet that the problem could be resolved relatively quickly.

If he loses that bet, he loses his job, IMO, and at this point in time the trend line is not looking good.

I'll go out on a limb right now and say these won't be flying until about Spring Break 2020.

The fix is going to take a while, the regulatory review longer, then you're going to have the holidays and essentially a shutdown of activity. There is no light at the end of the tunnel at this moment.

I said it earlier and it remains my assertion that this could very well be a franchise changing moment for Boeing.

IAmGaroott wrote:

Out of curiosity (and I am not trying to be "that guy" with this question), has the NG tooling been destroyed yet?

Nope according to Planespotter.net KLM has still one more 738 on order. Furthermore, the airforce still has some P8's on order. But what does it matter? Airlines won't be ordering new NG's anymore.

slider wrote:

I said it earlier and it remains my assertion that this could very well be a franchise changing moment for Boeing.

The current WSJ article is a pretty pessimistic rendering.

I'm not sure if it's an accurate one, but so far, pessimism seems to be winning the day.

They also point out the current FAA chief is a fill in and there will be a change to the new permanent chief in the near future, and this too could work against the time line for ungrounding.

That's what happens when you appoint an ex-DL guy as the next FAA chief!

Humor aside, I think the current delays to early November are ugly but still manageable, but if they extend, messing up both summer and winter peak travel seasons will cause major blow back from the airlines and the investors towards Boeing.

AA has to clean up its act with the mechanics union issue way ahead of this airplane being reintroduced to service.
The public is growing weary and angry on its current cancellation, delay and reliability issues with this "slowdown" and that in itself is costing it business and customer goodwill.
If and when the MAX is cleared to fly again, AA cannot have some PR stunt of Doug Parker doing a test ride and declaring it is a safe and beautiful new plane AA customers will love, and all AA employees will welcome them aboard with big smiles.
I have two neighbors who are AA employees. A station supervisor and a F/A. They are less concerned with MAX issues right now as they deal with daily flight issues and disgruntled passengers. In June, my F/A neighbor had 11 flight segments canceled in her schedule pairings and the station had 5000+ charged passenger IRROPS. They're the front line for the customer and they're frustrated and concerned the damage it is causing AA.
It reminds me of the old US days of CHAOS........Create Havoc Around Our System. AA get your house in order now!
I'm hoping Boeing and the MAX is ultimately a huge success. The current situation brings back lingering thoughts however of the long term effects of the Electra and DC-10 groundings that did affect customer perceptions of safety for years.

IWMBH wrote:

IAmGaroott wrote:

Out of curiosity (and I am not trying to be "that guy" with this question), has the NG tooling been destroyed yet?

Nope according to Planespotter.net KLM has still one more 738 on order. Furthermore, the airforce still has some P8's on order. But what does it matter? Airlines won't be ordering new NG's anymore.

Not if they had a choice, but was curious if it was an option Boeing could offer AA to help offset some of the near term pain given that they already have a substantial fleet. JAL ended up buying some 763s & 777s during the 787 grounding for just that reason.

HPAEAA wrote:

IWMBH wrote:

IAmGaroott wrote:

Out of curiosity (and I am not trying to be "that guy" with this question), has the NG tooling been destroyed yet?

Nope according to Planespotter.net KLM has still one more 738 on order. Furthermore, the airforce still has some P8's on order. But what does it matter? Airlines won't be ordering new NG's anymore.

Not if they had a choice, but was curious if it was an option Boeing could offer AA to help offset some of the near term pain given that they already have a substantial fleet. JAL ended up buying some 763s & 777s during the 787 grounding for just that reason.

I thought the 767/777 deal was because the overall delay of the 787 program, not the groundings regarding the battery? The 787 was delayed by years, I think (and hope) the -MAX's grounding won't take that long and it isn't worth the trouble of ordering NG's.

Re-open the 757 production line and recycle all existing 737 MAX into new parts. There, Boeing, I saved your company.

IAmGaroott wrote:

Out of curiosity (and I am not trying to be "that guy" with this question), has the NG tooling been destroyed yet?

No, because the military P8 is a derivative of the 737-800 and is still in production. The issue isn't the tooling that Boeing uses, it is the tooling used by their innumerable subcontractors and sub-subcontractors. Now quite a lot of parts used will be common between the MAX and the NG so are still standard production items anyway. But 737NG specific items that aren't used in a P8 will have had the tooling removed from production areas and stored. They won't have scrapped it because with the vast base of flying 737NGs there will be a need for spares in the future, but they may well be using the production space, machines, and workforce to make something completely different at the moment, or as in the case of engines, the production capacity has been scaled back and switched to different models. It is not a case of carrying a few jigs into one end of an assembly hall and moving MAX ones out, the whole supply chain needs to be re-established at the correct volume.

fallap wrote:

Re-open the 757 production line and recycle all existing 737 MAX into new parts. There, Boeing, I saved your company.

You didn’t do anything except make a ridiculous statement of something that would never work.

flight152 wrote:

fallap wrote:

Re-open the 757 production line and recycle all existing 737 MAX into new parts. There, Boeing, I saved your company.

You didn’t do anything except make a ridiculous statement of something that would never work.

And he was clearly kidding so all you did was miss the joke.

c933103 wrote:

anymaninfc wrote:

HJM wrote:

May it be possible (dare I even think this) that the MAX will never fly again??

No, it will fly again and be a successful model. Too many airlines need new replacement aircraft, and Airbus does not possess the capacity to fill the void if the MAX didn't fly.

I can't see how authorities around the world are going to say "Well, there are still defect in the aircraft system, but airlines want to.use the aircraft so let's allow airlines put passengers on them"

This is why I have stayed out of these threads as much as possible - what an ignorant response. In no way did anyone infer authorities would let the plane fly because Airbus can't fill the void. This is just one of many reasons why the industry will need to support Boeing in getting this plane safe to fly again. Just because anymaninfc didn't list out every reason doesn't mean there isn't more to the story. But, considering the way people interact online, ignore the full story and just jump to conclusions, I can see why you would have such a response.

Of course the plane will fly when, and only when, it is safe to do so and ALL of the authorities that need to sign off on it have. There will be so much scrutiny on this plane once it flies and, if something should happen, no one wants the figure pointed back at them.

anymaninfc wrote:

HJM wrote:

May it be possible (dare I even think this) that the MAX will never fly again??

No, it will fly again and be a successful model. Too many airlines need new replacement aircraft, and Airbus does not possess the capacity to fill the void if the MAX didn't fly.

It will fly again. It will be safe. But successful may not be so trivial. I demand to see the reaction of people when they will know they are flying on a max.
By the way, on a personnal note, I will do everything to never fly one. When I see BA jumping on 200 of them ...

fallap wrote:

Re-open the 757 production line and recycle all existing 737 MAX into new parts. There, Boeing, I saved your company.

There is no 757 assembly line to reopen, no tooling and no parts.

AA seems to made the prudent decision to extend the time they anticipate their 737MAX's out of service. I suspect WN and other MAX owners will also have to do similar extensions and notify the public too. Still this has to hurt their bottom line of those and other airlines with these anticipated planes not available for long planned use. One has to wonder how much Boeing will have to pay out for delivery penalties, it won't be a small bill.

Just when Boeing thought they had the fix sorted, FAA found another issue.

As far as I know, the 2nd issue isn't fixed yet.

And when the software is ready, tested and verified, it needs to be installed on every single -8 MAX produced. Each frame then needs to be test flown.

And even if FAA finds everything satisfactory and lifts the grounding - the other aviation authorities around the world might not just follow suit. Going forward they'll likely do their own testing and certification.

I think the 737-8 MAX will fly again, but it's not looking like an easy fix. I would not be surprised if we were well into 2020 before they're flying all over the world again.

As for the suggestion of using the already produced frames for military applications, I don't think that's any easier than trying to fix the airplanes already built for civilian use. There's no military aircraft based on the MAX. The P-8 Poseidon is 737 NG based. Even if there was a military conversion program launched, I doubt they'd need 4-500 frames.

The MAX will fly again, all this dreary talk is ludicrous. The only issue is Boeing employees are going to have to park elsewhere if they keep using the parking lots to park the non-delivered ones.

People said similar things about the 787 and not a peep is mentioned about that airliner today.

Is it really not possible to get an exemption on the max to be flown elsewhere for storage than take up parking lots at Boeing fields?

CarlosSi wrote:

Is it really not possible to get an exemption on the max to be flown elsewhere for storage than take up parking lots at Boeing fields?

They can probably ask the FAA for an exemption for storage, I don't believe they have gotten to that yet because they probably figured it would be flying in a few months. Of course flying to another location just adds more red ink to Boeing.

Lootess wrote:

CarlosSi wrote:

Is it really not possible to get an exemption on the max to be flown elsewhere for storage than take up parking lots at Boeing fields?

They can probably ask the FAA for an exemption for storage, I don't believe they have gotten to that yet because they probably figured it would be flying in a few months. Of course flying to another location just adds more red ink to Boeing.

Since they are parking newly manufactured B737-MAX aircraft at SAT, I'd have to assume they don't need an exemption if it's not a revenue flight.

fallap wrote:

Re-open the 757 production line and recycle all existing 737 MAX into new parts. There, Boeing, I saved your company.

funny thing is that those engines would actually fit under 757 wings!

Lootess wrote:

The MAX will fly again, all this dreary talk is ludicrous. The only issue is Boeing employees are going to have to park elsewhere if they keep using the parking lots to park the non-delivered ones.

People said similar things about the 787 and not a peep is mentioned about that airliner today.

the 787 problems did not seem so fundamental to frame performance. battery issues needed to be sorted out and they were quickly. also, no 787s fell from the sky.

my personal opinion is that the MAX is inherently unsafe and will crash again in short order after having the grounding lifted. they simply pushed the limits of what the frame can do too far. this is the bean-counters reaching their maximum impact.

tockeyhockey wrote:

Lootess wrote:

The MAX will fly again, all this dreary talk is ludicrous. The only issue is Boeing employees are going to have to park elsewhere if they keep using the parking lots to park the non-delivered ones.

People said similar things about the 787 and not a peep is mentioned about that airliner today.

the 787 problems did not seem so fundamental to frame performance. battery issues needed to be sorted out and they were quickly. also, no 787s fell from the sky.

my personal opinion is that the MAX is inherently unsafe and will crash again in short order after having the grounding lifted. they simply pushed the limits of what the frame can do too far. this is the bean-counters reaching their maximum impact.

Just out of curiosity, what aviation experience do you have to state that the Max is inherently unsafe and will crash soon after return to service?

The thread title is incorrect. It's through October... plus a couple of days in November.

The situation is bad enough without any exaggeration.

Boof02671 wrote:

fallap wrote:

Re-open the 757 production line and recycle all existing 737 MAX into new parts. There, Boeing, I saved your company.

There is no 757 assembly line to reopen, no tooling and no parts.

You can always make new tooling and new parts.