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keesje
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Leeham: 14 new airplanes and derivatives see EIS through 2027. ??

Mon Jul 15, 2019 11:58 am

LeehamNews, one of the better (ignoring reader / advertiser satisfaction) knowledgeable aerospace news sites has a topic today.

14 new airplanes and derivatives see EIS through 2027

https://leehamnews.com/2019/07/15/13-new-airplanes-and-derivatives-see-eis-through-2027/#comments

Now the thing is, it is $ubscription Required..

Still, I wonder what those 14 new airplanes and derivatives w'll see EIS through 2027, ex. 797 NMA.

1. 777-8
2. 777-9
3. E175-E2
4. E190-E2
5. E195-E2
6. C919
7. MS-21
8. A330-800
9. 737-10
10. A321XLR

Those are the easy ones, 4 to go. Please stay away from those terrible unconfirmed speculations. :angel:
-> Forget the A220-500, A322, 777-10, A320Plus, A339F, 797 and E200..

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Last edited by keesje on Mon Jul 15, 2019 12:04 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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FluidFlow
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Re: Leeham: 14 new airplanes and derivatives see EIS through 2027. ??

Mon Jul 15, 2019 12:02 pm

The two MRJs, now named M90 and M100.
 
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par13del
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Re: Leeham: 14 new airplanes and derivatives see EIS through 2027. ??

Mon Jul 15, 2019 12:09 pm

So what happened to the MAX-9 and the MAX version to seat 200 pax for FR, I don't think that is the same as the MAX-10 which is supposed to eventually replace the MAX 9.
 
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keesje
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Re: Leeham: 14 new airplanes and derivatives see EIS through 2027. ??

Mon Jul 15, 2019 12:12 pm

par13del wrote:
So what happened to the MAX-9 and the MAX version to seat 200 pax for FR, I don't think that is the same as the MAX-10 which is supposed to eventually replace the MAX 9.


It seems MAX 9 entered service with United in 2018. The FR 200 pax seems marketing of the -8 with denser cabin.

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Re: Leeham: 14 new airplanes and derivatives see EIS through 2027. ??

Mon Jul 15, 2019 12:14 pm

keesje wrote:
par13del wrote:
So what happened to the MAX-9 and the MAX version to seat 200 pax for FR, I don't think that is the same as the MAX-10 which is supposed to eventually replace the MAX 9.


It seems MAX 9 entered service with United in 2018. The FR 200 pax seems an -8 with dense cabin.

Image


Whether you believe it or not, the MAX-7 will also probably enter service too.
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Armadillo1
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Re: Leeham: 14 new airplanes and derivatives see EIS through 2027. ??

Mon Jul 15, 2019 12:15 pm

interesting to look in past
https://leehamnews.com/2013/09/24/busy- ... eis-dates/

for topic - 350Ultra


is this only for pax liners?
KC-390 and Kawasaki C-2 seems already done?
YC-20?
difficult child IL-112

also, funny to see 13 in link stated 14.
 
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Re: Leeham: 14 new airplanes and derivatives see EIS through 2027. ??

Mon Jul 15, 2019 12:17 pm

par13del wrote:
So what happened to the MAX-9 and the MAX version to seat 200 pax for FR, I don't think that is the same as the MAX-10 which is supposed to eventually replace the MAX 9.

MAX 9 is already delivered.

MAX 8 200 was pretty much ready for delivery at the time of the grounding ( ref: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_73 ... 37_MAX_200 ).
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Re: Leeham: 14 new airplanes and derivatives see EIS through 2027. ??

Mon Jul 15, 2019 12:19 pm

keesje wrote:
Image

What is this ungodly creation? It looks like either a mockup of the failed 787-3 or an A220-300 on steroids
Next flight: November 23 BA216 IAD-LHR A388
November 24 BA814 LHR-CPH A320

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Dominion301
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Re: Leeham: 14 new airplanes and derivatives see EIS through 2027. ??

Mon Jul 15, 2019 12:21 pm

Don’t forget the new 9 seater electric plane. That’ll be used in scheduled service.
 
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keesje
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Re: Leeham: 14 new airplanes and derivatives see EIS through 2027. ??

Mon Jul 15, 2019 12:22 pm

Spacepope wrote:
keesje wrote:
par13del wrote:
So what happened to the MAX-9 and the MAX version to seat 200 pax for FR, I don't think that is the same as the MAX-10 which is supposed to eventually replace the MAX 9.


It seems MAX 9 entered service with United in 2018. The FR 200 pax seems an -8 with dense cabin.

Image


Whether you believe it or not, the MAX-7 will also probably enter service too.


Interesting. Southwest & Westjet deferred deliveries / converted. Jetlines terminated their order. Turkmenistan ordered 3 (incl 1 BBJ) was suspended permission to fly to EU, and s trying to regain permission with LHT.

The 737-7 has quickly become an Orphan. But you are right, officially it still might EIS before 2027... 1 to go?
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Re: Leeham: 14 new airplanes and derivatives see EIS through 2027. ??

Mon Jul 15, 2019 12:23 pm

keesje wrote:
It seems MAX 9 entered service with United in 2018.

First delivery was (ironically enough) to Lion Air ( ref: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_737_MAX#737_MAX_9 ).

Spacepope wrote:
Whether you believe it or not, the MAX-7 will also probably enter service too.

And it won't have containers.
Last edited by Revelation on Mon Jul 15, 2019 12:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Leeham: 14 new airplanes and derivatives see EIS through 2027. ??

Mon Jul 15, 2019 12:23 pm

Does the ATR 42-600S count as a new subtype?
 
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keesje
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Re: Leeham: 14 new airplanes and derivatives see EIS through 2027. ??

Mon Jul 15, 2019 12:30 pm

Dominion301 wrote:
Don’t forget the new 9 seater electric plane. That’ll be used in scheduled service.


I doubt that one is included. Boeing pulled a plug.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeremybogaisky/2019/07/02/zunum-aero-nears-zero-founders-struggle-to-raise-money-after-laying-off-staff/


1. 777-8
2. 777-9
3. E175-E2
4. E190-E2
5. E195-E2
6. C919
7. MS-21
8. A330-800
9. 737-10
10. A321XLR
11. M90
12 M100
13. 737-7
14. I know it :spin:
Last edited by keesje on Mon Jul 15, 2019 12:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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OA940
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Re: Leeham: 14 new airplanes and derivatives see EIS through 2027. ??

Mon Jul 15, 2019 12:37 pm

keesje wrote:
Dominion301 wrote:
Don’t forget the new 9 seater electric plane. That’ll be used in scheduled service.


I doubt that one is included. Boeing pulled a plug.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeremybogaisky/2019/07/02/zunum-aero-nears-zero-founders-struggle-to-raise-money-after-laying-off-staff/


1. 777-8
2. 777-9
3. E175-E2
4. E190-E2
5. E195-E2
6. C919
7. MS-21
8. A330-800
9. 737-10
10. A321XLR
11. M-70
12-M-90
13. 737-7
14. I know it :biggrin:


The MC-21 has two variants so... Also isn't the CR929 supposed to enter service in 2027?
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Re: Leeham: 14 new airplanes and derivatives see EIS through 2027. ??

Mon Jul 15, 2019 12:38 pm

Should we really count the E-190 E2? The plane entered service with WF months ago. I thought “new“ in this context means “not yet certified”.
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Re: Leeham: 14 new airplanes and derivatives see EIS through 2027. ??

Mon Jul 15, 2019 12:40 pm

A350 Neo
 
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sergegva
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Re: Leeham: 14 new airplanes and derivatives see EIS through 2027. ??

Mon Jul 15, 2019 12:42 pm

A319neo, but I'm still not convinced it will enter service...
 
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MalcolmInTheMoM
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Re: Leeham: 14 new airplanes and derivatives see EIS through 2027. ??

Mon Jul 15, 2019 12:44 pm

How about the new IL-96-400M? The plane Russia (strangely) wants to start building in 2 or 3 years.
 
United857
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Re: Leeham: 14 new airplanes and derivatives see EIS through 2027. ??

Mon Jul 15, 2019 12:54 pm

The E190-E2 has already entered service with Wilderoe and Air Astana.
A319 A320 A321 A333 A343 A346 A388 B712 B733 B737 B738 B739 B744 B748 B752 B764 B772 B77L B77W B788 CRJ2 E145 E17S E190 MD88 MD90
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FluidFlow
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Re: Leeham: 14 new airplanes and derivatives see EIS through 2027. ??

Mon Jul 15, 2019 12:56 pm

I do not know if the Chinese will go ahead with it but it is planned to produce an ARJ21-900.
 
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keesje
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Re: Leeham: 14 new airplanes and derivatives see EIS through 2027. ??

Mon Jul 15, 2019 12:56 pm

sergegva wrote:
A319neo


:checkmark:

Image

sergegva wrote:
but I'm still not convinced it will enter service...


:checkmark: They might pull an A350-800 here..
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Weatherwatcher1
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Re: Leeham: 14 new airplanes and derivatives see EIS through 2027. ??

Mon Jul 15, 2019 1:03 pm

Are we speculating on what new derivatives will enter service before 2027?

The article states it will be 16 if Boeing launches the NMA.

There are 14 new and derivative aircraft scheduled for entry into service (EIS) through 2027. This rises to 16 if Boeing launches the New Midmarket Aircraft (NMA).


It’s an excited time with many derivatives coming out, although it is time for a New program. It’s been 14 years since the last all new program was launched at Boeing or Airbus.

keesje wrote:
LeehamNews, one of the better (ignoring reader / advertiser satisfaction) knowledgeable aerospace news sites has a topic today


Is leeham news knowledgeable? Absolutely! Are they biased? Absolutely. There is a connection with Airbus marketing material.
 
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keesje
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Re: Leeham: 14 new airplanes and derivatives see EIS through 2027. ??

Mon Jul 15, 2019 1:23 pm

Weatherwatcher1 wrote:
Are we speculating on what new derivatives will enter service before 2027?

The article states it will be 16 if Boeing launches the NMA.

There are 14 new and derivative aircraft scheduled for entry into service (EIS) through 2027. This rises to 16 if Boeing launches the New Midmarket Aircraft (NMA).


It’s an excited time with many derivatives coming out, although it is time for a New program. It’s been 14 years since the last all new program was launched at Boeing or Airbus.

keesje wrote:
LeehamNews, one of the better (ignoring reader / advertiser satisfaction) knowledgeable aerospace news sites has a topic today


Is leeham news knowledgeable? Absolutely! Are they biased? Absolutely. There is a connection with Airbus marketing material.


Yes, and Boeing, Embraer and BBD marketing material. If Boeing f.cks up he says Boeing f.cks up & they aren't invited on Boeings next media chalet champagne event / familiarisation flight / Boeing executive interview. Doesn't make them Airbus biased / a sponsored "think tank".


1. 777-8
2. 777-9
3. E175-E2
4. E190-E2
5. E195-E2
6. C919
7. MS-21
8. A330-800
9. 737-10
10. A321XLR
11. M-70
12-M-90
13. 737-7
14. A319NEO

I think we are there Scott, Bjorn :wink2:

To drag on this endless, tiring thread a bit, lets put (unauthorized) EIS years until 2027 on them :taekwondo:
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Re: Leeham: 14 new airplanes and derivatives see EIS through 2027. ??

Mon Jul 15, 2019 2:03 pm

keesje wrote:
Weatherwatcher1 wrote:
Are we speculating on what new derivatives will enter service before 2027?

The article states it will be 16 if Boeing launches the NMA.

There are 14 new and derivative aircraft scheduled for entry into service (EIS) through 2027. This rises to 16 if Boeing launches the New Midmarket Aircraft (NMA).


It’s an excited time with many derivatives coming out, although it is time for a New program. It’s been 14 years since the last all new program was launched at Boeing or Airbus.

keesje wrote:
LeehamNews, one of the better (ignoring reader / advertiser satisfaction) knowledgeable aerospace news sites has a topic today


Is leeham news knowledgeable? Absolutely! Are they biased? Absolutely. There is a connection with Airbus marketing material.


Yes, and Boeing, Embraer and BBD marketing material. If Boeing f.cks up he says Boeing f.cks up & they aren't invited on Boeings next media chalet champagne event / familiarisation flight. Doesn't make them Airbus biased..

Looking at their prior cheerleading on the A346, I perceive an mild anti-Boeing bias.

The site ignores Boeing and Airbus use different passenger weights and margins. If Boeing misses spec, it is a big deal yet both the A346 and A388 were 6 tons overweight at EIS (A388 brought under spec, A346 was always a heavy dog). We keep hearing about the 788 being overweight at EIS, but not how much weight was removed (more with the commonality improvements).

While great for information, I have learned to filter. Put another way, per their articles, Boeing's success is hard to understand. Since long term (not short term), the market is rational, I look for information that supports the market.

On topic, new RJs are being ignored. If the MRJ is redesigned in a good way, I expect it to take A220/E2 sales. In particular if the current (heavy) wing is put on a hundred seater.

I too expect the NMA in two lengths.

I also expect something from Airbus. There are many projects being studied (also at Boeing). My favorite part of the business is coming up with new ideas and trying out the business case. My least favorite part is when there isn't enough will to close the business case.

With new engine tech

Core: higher Mach # bearings, better turbine blade design, better high compressor aerodynamics (GE9x), CMCs

Variable cycle:. Variable turbine cooling (LEAP, GE9x), variable fan nozzle (A Whittle idea, so not Pratt exclusive), variable compressor FOD bleed, better turbine cooling control (GE9x)

Low spool:. 3.5:1 gearbox, better turbine aero (PW1100G PiP and LEAP-1B, not in 1A as that is the timeline), better low compressor to high compressor profile, higher Mach # fan (GE9x), low turbine Clearance control (why is the current tech so primitive?),

Airframe:.
Electrical subsystem improvements (saves 3% to 4% over old school bleed in fuel and maintenance at a ton per hundred pax weight penalty).
Next gen CFRP
Underside laminar flow (all prior to 777x focus only on topside)
3D printed large titanium structures (so new the printers are still being manufactured).

The rule of thumb is half of the benefit vis realized by retrofit. So enough is happening there will be market opportunities for new aircraft.

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FBWFTW
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Re: Leeham: 14 new airplanes and derivatives see EIS through 2027. ??

Mon Jul 15, 2019 2:15 pm

The 737Max 200 is no more... It is now the 737-8200

Image

The rebranding continues.

Links here:
https://thepointsguy.com/news/ryanair-d ... 7-max-200s
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keesje
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Re: Leeham: 14 new airplanes and derivatives see EIS through 2027. ??

Mon Jul 15, 2019 8:44 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Looking at their prior cheerleading on the A346, I perceive an mild anti-Boeing bias.
Lightsaber


:arrow: They weren't there when A346 was launched & qualified it as a dud in 2014.

https://leehamnews.com/2014/12/23/worlds-dud-airliners/

EIS:
1. 777-8 ?? never ??
2. 777-9 ?? 2021 ??
3. E175-E2 ?? 2022 ??
4. E190-E2 ?? 2020 ??
5. E195-E2 ?? 2021 ??
6. C919 ?? 2023 ??
7. MS-21 ?? 2022 ??
8. A330-800 ?? 2020 ??
9. 737-10 ?? 2021 ??
10. A321XLR ?? 2022 ??
11. M-70 ?? 2022 ??
12. M-90 ?? 2023 ??
13. 737-7 ?? never ??
14. A319NEO ?? never ??
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
FlyHPN
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Re: Leeham: 14 new airplanes and derivatives see EIS through 2027. ??

Mon Jul 15, 2019 8:50 pm

keesje wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Looking at their prior cheerleading on the A346, I perceive an mild anti-Boeing bias.
Lightsaber


:arrow: They weren't there when A346 was launched & qualified it as a dud in 2014.

https://leehamnews.com/2014/12/23/worlds-dud-airliners/

EIS:
1. 777-8 ?? never ??
2. 777-9 ?? 2021 ??
3. E175-E2 ?? 2022 ??
4. E190-E2 ?? 2020 ??
5. E195-E2 ?? 2021 ??
6. C919 ?? 2023 ??
7. MS-21 ?? 2022 ??
8. A330-800 ?? 2020 ??
9. 737-10 ?? 2021 ??
10. A321XLR ?? 2022 ??
11. M-70 ?? 2022 ??
12. M-90 ?? 2023 ??
13. 737-7 ?? never ??
14. A319NEO ?? never ??


Why do you keep mentioning the E190-E2? It entered service in April of 2018 - https://embraer.com/global/en/news/?slu ... er-e190-e2
 
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keesje
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Re: Leeham: 14 new airplanes and derivatives see EIS through 2027. ??

Mon Jul 15, 2019 9:04 pm

FlyHPN wrote:
keesje wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Looking at their prior cheerleading on the A346, I perceive an mild anti-Boeing bias.
Lightsaber


:arrow: They weren't there when A346 was launched & qualified it as a dud in 2014.

https://leehamnews.com/2014/12/23/worlds-dud-airliners/

EIS:
1. 777-8 ?? never ??
2. 777-9 ?? 2021 ??
3. E175-E2 ?? 2022 ??
4. E190-E2 ?? 2020 ??
5. E195-E2 ?? 2021 ??
6. C919 ?? 2023 ??
7. MS-21 ?? 2022 ??
8. A330-800 ?? 2020 ??
9. 737-10 ?? 2021 ??
10. A321XLR ?? 2022 ??
11. M-70 ?? 2022 ??
12. M-90 ?? 2023 ??
13. 737-7 ?? never ??
14. A319NEO ?? never ??


Why do you keep mentioning the E190-E2? It entered service in April of 2018 - https://embraer.com/global/en/news/?slu ... er-e190-e2


Oops then we are back to 13.. what's #14 ? :wideeyed: who has a Boeing subscription?
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superbizzy73
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Re: Leeham: 14 new airplanes and derivatives see EIS through 2027. ??

Mon Jul 15, 2019 9:21 pm

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... ew-459666/

737-8200 is not new or a rebrand, even though the “experts” think it is.
 
SEU
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Re: Leeham: 14 new airplanes and derivatives see EIS through 2027. ??

Mon Jul 15, 2019 9:53 pm

Could it be the Sukhoi Superjet 130 the one that people are missing?
 
SEU
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Re: Leeham: 14 new airplanes and derivatives see EIS through 2027. ??

Mon Jul 15, 2019 9:59 pm

Actually ive worked it out. It was the Comac C929 people are missing the E2-190 is already in service, seen one out of liverpool.

1. 777-8
2. 777-9
3. E175-E2
4. E195-E2
5. C919
6. C929
7. MS-21
8. A330-800
9. 737-10
10. A321XLR
11. M-70
12-M-90
13. 737-7
14. A319NEO

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