Bluegrass60
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Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Mon Jul 15, 2019 9:35 pm

Top dozen markets to next get TATL : https://www.aviationplanning.com/monday ... il-1-2019/

No particular order:
ALB, MHT, PVD, GRR, CMH, ORF, RIC, SDF, CVG, MEM, SAV, JAX
edit - CVG and PVD already have TATL

Traditional Demand Drivers Are Out. The key point is to understand that the new criteria for this expansion no longer gravitates around local population, but instead a range of economic dynamics. This includes the composition of the regional industrial base, the accessibility to a wide feed area (ground hubbing) and the nature of international investment accessible.

Boyd had earlier projected TATL for IND, BNA, AUS, MSY and...CHS. He was right on all counts
 
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GCT64
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Mon Jul 15, 2019 9:52 pm

As a regular UK - MA commuter: BOS, especially international Terminal E is getting busier and busier, but more importantly the road journey to/from Logan is getting worse and worse with no prospect of improvement in sight. I can see a market for either LHR-MHT or LHR-PVD (and I would definitely be interested in those options) but whether BA would want to dilute their major BOS presence isn't clear to me.
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Mon Jul 15, 2019 10:17 pm

Ok...GRR would really be a strange one. What's the reasoning there?
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Bluegrass60
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Mon Jul 15, 2019 10:21 pm

I don't know specifics as to why any of these cities made the list: BOYD SUGGESTS - "Traditional Demand Drivers Are Out. The key point is to understand that the new criteria for this expansion no longer gravitates around local population, but instead a range of economic dynamics. This includes the composition of the regional industrial base, the accessibility to a wide feed area (ground hubbing) and the nature of international investment accessible."
 
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Mon Jul 15, 2019 10:23 pm

Bluegrass60 wrote:
Top dozen markets to next get TATL : https://www.aviationplanning.com/monday ... il-1-2019/

No particular order:
ALB, MHT, PVD, GRR, CMH, ORF, RIC, SDF, CVG, MEM, SAV, JAX
edit - CVG and PVD already have TATL

Traditional Demand Drivers Are Out. The key point is to understand that the new criteria for this expansion no longer gravitates around local population, but instead a range of economic dynamics. This includes the composition of the regional industrial base, the accessibility to a wide feed area (ground hubbing) and the nature of international investment accessible.

Boyd had earlier projected TATL for IND, BNA, AUS, MSY and...CHS. He was right on all counts

Boyd has been saying STL before all those markets for BA and was wrong and later amended his statements.
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enilria
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Mon Jul 15, 2019 10:26 pm

Bluegrass60 wrote:
Top dozen markets to next get TATL : https://www.aviationplanning.com/monday ... il-1-2019/

No particular order:
ALB, MHT, PVD, GRR, CMH, ORF, RIC, SDF, CVG, MEM, SAV, JAX
edit - CVG and PVD already have TATL

Traditional Demand Drivers Are Out. The key point is to understand that the new criteria for this expansion no longer gravitates around local population, but instead a range of economic dynamics. This includes the composition of the regional industrial base, the accessibility to a wide feed area (ground hubbing) and the nature of international investment accessible.

Boyd had earlier projected TATL for IND, BNA, AUS, MSY and...CHS. He was right on all counts

I like Boyd, but what airline is left to add these? The ULCCs are all but dead across the Atlantic. Norwegian just said they are going to curtail growth.
 
Bluegrass60
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Mon Jul 15, 2019 10:39 pm

Boyd suggested BA via LHR as a candidate. Maybe Aer Lingus? Likely there are others and they are not ULCC but network carriers....therefor support one of the drivers: "through hub feed...aka beyond LHR; FRA; CDG; AMS etc"

Not sure why STL is not on the list; the list is Boyd's not mine
 
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Mon Jul 15, 2019 11:00 pm

Bluegrass60 wrote:

Boyd suggested BA via LHR as a candidate. Maybe Aer Lingus? Likely there are others and they are not ULCC but network carriers....therefor support one of the drivers: "through hub feed...aka beyond LHR; FRA; CDG; AMS etc"

Not sure why STL is not on the list; the list is Boyd's not mine


STL is either the #1 or #2 of US markets with no TATL service. I keep hoping for Aer Lingus myself.
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Varsity1
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Mon Jul 15, 2019 11:09 pm

GRR?

It can hardly sustain mainline service to Chicago.
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Mon Jul 15, 2019 11:12 pm

Bluegrass60 wrote:
Boyd had earlier projected TATL for IND, BNA, AUS, MSY and...CHS. He was right on all counts


What markets had Boyd predicted in the last five years where he hasn't been right?
 
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Mon Jul 15, 2019 11:17 pm

Bluegrass60 wrote:
Traditional Demand Drivers Are Out. The key point is to understand that the new criteria for this expansion no longer gravitates around local population, but instead a range of economic dynamics. This includes the composition of the regional industrial base, the accessibility to a wide feed area (ground hubbing) and the nature of international investment accessible.


I disagree with Boyd on this point. The “traditional demand driver” has never been population, it has always been a “range of economic dynamics.” Certain markets like IAH, SFO, etc have always “punched above their (population) weight” for this exact reason. What is new today is that the combination of economic growth and highly efficient aircraft mean that more city pairs will clear the hurdle of viability.
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Cubsrule
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Mon Jul 15, 2019 11:55 pm

enilria wrote:
Bluegrass60 wrote:
Top dozen markets to next get TATL : https://www.aviationplanning.com/monday ... il-1-2019/

No particular order:
ALB, MHT, PVD, GRR, CMH, ORF, RIC, SDF, CVG, MEM, SAV, JAX
edit - CVG and PVD already have TATL

Traditional Demand Drivers Are Out. The key point is to understand that the new criteria for this expansion no longer gravitates around local population, but instead a range of economic dynamics. This includes the composition of the regional industrial base, the accessibility to a wide feed area (ground hubbing) and the nature of international investment accessible.

Boyd had earlier projected TATL for IND, BNA, AUS, MSY and...CHS. He was right on all counts

I like Boyd, but what airline is left to add these? The ULCCs are all but dead across the Atlantic. Norwegian just said they are going to curtail growth.


Several of these airports lack FIS facilities that can handle a 200-seat aircraft, so it seems like it would have to be someone from Ireland.
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Midwestindy
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Tue Jul 16, 2019 12:01 am

Bluegrass60 wrote:
Top dozen markets to next get TATL : https://www.aviationplanning.com/monday ... il-1-2019/

No particular order:
ALB, MHT, PVD, GRR, CMH, ORF, RIC, SDF, CVG, MEM, SAV, JAX
edit - CVG and PVD already have TATL

Traditional Demand Drivers Are Out. The key point is to understand that the new criteria for this expansion no longer gravitates around local population, but instead a range of economic dynamics. This includes the composition of the regional industrial base, the accessibility to a wide feed area (ground hubbing) and the nature of international investment accessible.

Boyd had earlier projected TATL for IND, BNA, AUS, MSY and...CHS. He was right on all counts


A few things here:

1. The only ones on that list with an argument for TATL flights are JAX, MEM, ORF, and CMH. GRR and ALB, not a chance in the forseeable future, and both airports have much bigger things to work on

2. "Boyd had earlier projected TATL for IND, BNA, AUS, MSY and...CHS," that was hardly difficult at all, every one of those airports except CHS talked about being close to landing a TATL flight for years before each was announced.

3. Boyd is wrong a lot: He has an ongoing prediction dating back to probably 2014 that CVG to LHR will happen, he said STL/IND-LHR would happen years ago, he said WN wouldn't come to CVG, there are probably dozens of other examples as well. Don't put too much stock in his predictions
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Midwestindy
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Tue Jul 16, 2019 12:03 am

Cubsrule wrote:
enilria wrote:
Bluegrass60 wrote:
Top dozen markets to next get TATL : https://www.aviationplanning.com/monday ... il-1-2019/

No particular order:
ALB, MHT, PVD, GRR, CMH, ORF, RIC, SDF, CVG, MEM, SAV, JAX
edit - CVG and PVD already have TATL

Traditional Demand Drivers Are Out. The key point is to understand that the new criteria for this expansion no longer gravitates around local population, but instead a range of economic dynamics. This includes the composition of the regional industrial base, the accessibility to a wide feed area (ground hubbing) and the nature of international investment accessible.

Boyd had earlier projected TATL for IND, BNA, AUS, MSY and...CHS. He was right on all counts

I like Boyd, but what airline is left to add these? The ULCCs are all but dead across the Atlantic. Norwegian just said they are going to curtail growth.


Several of these airports lack FIS facilities that can handle a 200-seat aircraft, so it seems like it would have to be someone from Ireland.


Even with Pre-clearance I remember reading there still needs to be FIS facilities in place, I believe this was cited somewhere as to why SDF didn't have service to YYZ.
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enilria
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Tue Jul 16, 2019 12:15 am

Bluegrass60 wrote:
Boyd suggested BA via LHR as a candidate. Maybe Aer Lingus? Likely there are others and they are not ULCC but network carriers....therefor support one of the drivers: "through hub feed...aka beyond LHR; FRA; CDG; AMS etc"

Not sure why STL is not on the list; the list is Boyd's not mine

Here's the problem, Level and Aer Lingus exist to stop Norwegian. They have succeeded. Eurowings existed to stop AirBerlin, it succeeded and now it is folding up. I expect IAG to stop the rapid expansion of these LCC brands as well. I don't like it, but history says that is what will happen.

Unless somebody else comes to the party I think it's over in terms of markets like PVD/SWF getting new Atlantic service. The legacies have nothing to gain from this if competition isn't forcing it.
 
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Tue Jul 16, 2019 12:33 am

Midwestindy wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
enilria wrote:
I like Boyd, but what airline is left to add these? The ULCCs are all but dead across the Atlantic. Norwegian just said they are going to curtail growth.


Several of these airports lack FIS facilities that can handle a 200-seat aircraft, so it seems like it would have to be someone from Ireland.


Even with Pre-clearance I remember reading there still needs to be FIS facilities in place, I believe this was cited somewhere as to why SDF didn't have service to YYZ.


They need a plan to clear passengers. That’s why DCA and LGA can have Canada (and precleared Caribbean) service. They don’t necessarily need a formal facility. JAX is one on this list that has had Canada flights but doesn’t have an adequate FIS for something like a BA 788.
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Tue Jul 16, 2019 12:43 am

Michael Boyd wrote:
Top dozen markets to next get TATL

Well that narrows it down.


Michael Boyd wrote:
Traditional Demand Drivers Are Out. The key point is to understand that the new criteria for this expansion no longer gravitates around local population, but instead a range of economic dynamics. This includes the composition of the regional industrial base, the accessibility to a wide feed area (ground hubbing) and the nature of international investment accessible.

In other words, same as it ever was.
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Bluegrass60
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Tue Jul 16, 2019 12:45 am

I would respect Boyd's views vs any of the amateurs on airliners.net

Actually think SDF could work very well for BA to LHR. That flight would provide an option for the population and thier economies within 1.5-2 hour radius of [email protected] The TATL competition in the region is only CDG Add to that the possibility of air cargo/air express lift for UPS....then add the tourism component (bourbon & horses ... riverboats) coupled with SDF plans for FIS and intl gates (part of $100-$200m capital improvements in works).....seems to me a better candidate than MEM and others cited by Boyd....
 
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Tue Jul 16, 2019 2:12 am

My opinion is that there is opportunity at some of these airports but with certain critical components in addition to what was already indicated (large regional population and strong ground transport options.

Network or interline on at least one end.

Modern and efficient aircraft like 737MAX or 321XLR.

Competitive airport costs.

Competitive air fares against existing options.

Bonuses would be specific and meaningful business or ethnic ties.

EI, D8, S4, FI, and TP have the right planes but not sure if they would consider this strategy. D8 is missing the network/interline piece which I think hurts them. S4 is very small. Capable U.S.A. carriers are all hub focused and the ULCCs’ seat density limits their ability to get across the pond. This leaves the likes of IAG group, maybe the future of Thomas Cook, and Moxy as potential candidates? Again, just an opinion here.

Edit to add that Western Europe markets like London, Paris, Dublin, Amsterdam, Lisbon, Madrid, etc. maybe Brussels would make most sense based on stage length and cost. In short, there are not a lot of obvious options given what we know today, but there are some.
Last edited by PVD757 on Tue Jul 16, 2019 2:30 am, edited 3 times in total.
 
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Tue Jul 16, 2019 2:21 am

Varsity1 wrote:
GRR?

It can hardly sustain mainline service to Chicago.


And no mainline to New York.
 
UPNYGuy
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Tue Jul 16, 2019 2:26 am

ALB is a laughable suggestion at best. It is my local airport, and I usually drive to BDL or BOS. ALB couldn’t even sustain a B1900 for international service on Air Canada. It is a decent airport, but 2.5 hours driving time to BOS and EWR. Anyone with a huge time crunch on an international flight (or any flight for that matter) already knows they can drive 2.5 hours and likely catch a nonstop.
 
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Tue Jul 16, 2019 8:00 am

So CLE just doesn't make the cut...interesting
 
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Tue Jul 16, 2019 1:09 pm

All those minor airports along with their codes are unknown to most of us. How about actually naming cities instead of just airport codes. I'll even propose one. Spokane connecting to European hub might do well. But not until there is a nominal 5000 mile 200 passenger plane.
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Tue Jul 16, 2019 1:13 pm

What, no MKE? JK (sorta)
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Tue Jul 16, 2019 1:16 pm

A re-instate of AMS-BDL (Hartford) would be great. DL would need to convert some A321s.
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avtcle
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Tue Jul 16, 2019 1:19 pm

Ultimately confused why Boyd did not include Cleveland on the list, especially considering that 57,000 passengers utilized flights between Cleveland and Reykjavik-Keflavik in 2018 — an impressive figure. CLE has statistical proof that strong demand exists yet it wasn’t included. Odd. :?:
 
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Tue Jul 16, 2019 1:27 pm

UPNYGuy wrote:
ALB couldn’t even sustain a B1900 for international service on Air Canada. I

To be fair, they had a good 13 year run of service, and all Northeastern US cities that had B1900 service to YYZ eventually lost service.
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Tue Jul 16, 2019 1:32 pm

avtcle wrote:
Ultimately confused why Boyd did not include Cleveland on the list, especially considering that 57,000 passengers utilized flights between Cleveland and Reykjavik-Keflavik in 2018 — an impressive figure. CLE has statistical proof that strong demand exists yet it wasn’t included. Odd. :?:


You have to ask how many of those 57K passengers were on junk fares, unable to sustain even a LCC.
 
UPNYGuy
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Tue Jul 16, 2019 1:32 pm

USAirALB wrote:
UPNYGuy wrote:
ALB couldn’t even sustain a B1900 for international service on Air Canada. I


To be fair, they had a good 13 year run of service, and all Northeastern US cities that had B1900 service to YYZ eventually lost service.


BDL was upgauged to a dash when it was originally on a 1900. Beech dropped, dash comes in. If my memory serves me correctly (and it doesn’t always) BDL was one of the only 1900 transborder outstations that got upgauged though.
 
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Tue Jul 16, 2019 1:36 pm

keesje wrote:
A re-instate of AMS-BDL (Hartford) would be great. DL would need to convert some A321s.


Successful firms and people learn from their mistakes. NW's BDL-AMS didn't even last 18 months. With the build up of LCC TATL service at BOS and NYC since then there's little reason to expect BDL-AMS to do substantially better today.

https://www.courant.com/business/hc-nor ... story.html
 
joeman
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Tue Jul 16, 2019 2:20 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
avtcle wrote:
Ultimately confused why Boyd did not include Cleveland on the list, especially considering that 57,000 passengers utilized flights between Cleveland and Reykjavik-Keflavik in 2018 — an impressive figure. CLE has statistical proof that strong demand exists yet it wasn’t included. Odd. :?:


You have to ask how many of those 57K passengers were on junk fares, unable to sustain even a LCC.

I'm sure there were plenty of junk fares. Kinda like this in the bay area:
https://www.sfgate.com/travel/article/c ... 091355.php

and at some point things in CLE appeared to be doing well enough:
https://www.cleveland.com/travel/2018/0 ... le_be.html
 
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keesje
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Tue Jul 16, 2019 2:32 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
keesje wrote:
A re-instate of AMS-BDL (Hartford) would be great. DL would need to convert some A321s.


Successful firms and people learn from their mistakes. NW's BDL-AMS didn't even last 18 months. With the build up of LCC TATL service at BOS and NYC since then there's little reason to expect BDL-AMS to do substantially better today.

https://www.courant.com/business/hc-nor ... story.html


The logan traffic situation is terrible & a A321 would reduce cost by a good percentage.

People from the (wider) Hartford area fly Air Lingus today to avoid NY & Boston.Convenience.
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PBADC3
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Tue Jul 16, 2019 2:39 pm

Bluegrass60 wrote:
Top dozen markets to next get TATL : https://www.aviationplanning.com/monday ... il-1-2019/

No particular order:
ALB, MHT, PVD, GRR, CMH, ORF, RIC, SDF, CVG, MEM, SAV, JAX
edit - CVG and PVD already have TATL

Traditional Demand Drivers Are Out. The key point is to understand that the new criteria for this expansion no longer gravitates around local population, but instead a range of economic dynamics. This includes the composition of the regional industrial base, the accessibility to a wide feed area (ground hubbing) and the nature of international investment accessible.

Boyd had earlier projected TATL for IND, BNA, AUS, MSY and...CHS. He was right on all counts



Boyd loves to make grand claims that are sensational.

This thread needs to also remember what Boyd's bread and butter business is - consulting for small airports to get new service. This is as much a drumbeat advertisement for consulting as it is any kind of meaningful prediction.
 
masseybrown
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Tue Jul 16, 2019 2:43 pm

PBADC3 wrote:
Boyd loves to make grand claims that are sensational. http://members.plaindealer.com/access.a ... t=eDesktop

This thread needs to also remember what Boyd's bread and butter business is - consulting for small airports to get new service. This is as much a drumbeat advertisement for consulting as it is any kind of meaningful prediction.


You'll probably find that his next round picks were or are his customers.
 
EBiafore99
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Tue Jul 16, 2019 2:49 pm

I know I am probably an outlier here, but I think international flights should be limited to certain airports, not expanded. So let's say ALB gets an international flight. That means CBP has to staff the airport for ONE flight. Unless CBP magically gets money to staff the airport with new resources, chances are they will re-allocate existing staff. That means for ALB's one flight, JFK or another busy airport will probably lose staff.
 
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Tue Jul 16, 2019 2:55 pm

Tourism is up in 2019 for Memphis, again the UK is a big source of international visitors.

According to the report, music is the main draw for Memphis tourists worldwide.

Domestic tourists most commonly visit Memphis from Nashville, Dallas, Atlanta, Little Rock and Chicago, while most international tourists come from Canada, the United Kingdom, Japan and Australia, Memphis Tourism found.


https://www.commercialappeal.com/story/ ... 622357001/

New, improved terminal on the way, Global Entry on site

Memphis seems to have more upside on the tourism aspect than the others(kinda like the surprise Austin was). A re0cently gained 788 from an AIG buyout of Norwegian operating seasonally at 3x could fit the bill and compliment, not compete with the BNA and MSY flights as this is known as the Musical Triangle.
 
WaywardMemphian
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Tue Jul 16, 2019 3:11 pm

Bluegrass60 wrote:
I would respect Boyd's views vs any of the amateurs on airliners.net

Actually think SDF could work very well for BA to LHR. That flight would provide an option for the population and thier economies within 1.5-2 hour radius of [email protected] The TATL competition in the region is only CDG Add to that the possibility of air cargo/air express lift for UPS....then add the tourism component (bourbon & horses ... riverboats) coupled with SDF plans for FIS and intl gates (part of $100-$200m capital improvements in works).....seems to me a better candidate than MEM and others cited by Boyd....


Memphis has riverboats, air cargo, big time music tourism interest, bbq lore, basically a new concourse on the way, global entry already on site ect, ect, ect.

There is the made famous by Arlo Guthrie "City of New Orleans" Amtrak service. Sadly no such service to Nashville.

You make a good point about the Whiskey trail.

Louisville could compliment Existing Nashville service much like Memphis for one direction travelers. However, being just back from Europe, Jack Daneils is the big American name there and that is basically a Tennesee thing that can easily be done between Nashville and Memphis. Make sure you book a dinner at Mrs. Mary's way in advance.

As for ground hubbing, there's the Little Rock MSA, North Ark, Mo. Boothill, Tupelo/North MS. I believe there's around 4 million within a 3 hr drive of Memphis and someone like me in XNA, MEM is as close as Dallas if I want to park in a long term lot and not connect.

Birmingham is between MEM/ATL and Jackson MS is between MEM/MSY
Last edited by WaywardMemphian on Tue Jul 16, 2019 3:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
greenair727
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Tue Jul 16, 2019 3:13 pm

Regarding the missing Cleveland prediction by Boyd, note that these are just his guesses. He has Columbus, Ohio on the list. But comparing CLE to CMH, Cleveland is a much larger market, both in population AND size of the economy; plus looking at the last few years, CLE GDP is growing faster than Columbus. There's also talk that the Columbus economy is cooling off, while Cleveland is suddenly rebounding quickly (and from a larger base). He may be using old data or information. I wouldn't read too much into his CMH over CLE--he appears to have missed some things there.
 
USAirALB
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Tue Jul 16, 2019 3:15 pm

UPNYGuy wrote:
USAirALB wrote:
UPNYGuy wrote:
ALB couldn’t even sustain a B1900 for international service on Air Canada. I


To be fair, they had a good 13 year run of service, and all Northeastern US cities that had B1900 service to YYZ eventually lost service.


BDL was upgauged to a dash when it was originally on a 1900. Beech dropped, dash comes in. If my memory serves me correctly (and it doesn’t always) BDL was one of the only 1900 transborder outstations that got upgauged though.

Correct. BDL-YYZ was always a Dash route (although I think it was usually supplemented by a single daily B1900 frequency) that was operated by Jazz. BDL-YUL was a B1900 route that was upguaged to a single Dash flight.

PVD also used to be a B1900 station that now sees a seasonal CRJ.
RJ85, F70, E135, E140, E145, E70, E75, E90, CR2, CR7, CR9, 717, 732, 733, 734, 735, 73G, 738, 739, 744, 752, 753, 762, 772, 77E, 77W, 789, 319, 320, 321, 332, 333, 343, 359, 388
 
CMHtraveler
Posts: 96
Joined: Tue Feb 19, 2019 4:48 pm

Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Tue Jul 16, 2019 3:19 pm

CMH would be announced next week if the business community in Columbus committed to a substantial subsidy ala PIT and IND. The question is, why? Yes, for a few weeks the mayor and city council would love the glory of shiny new international service outside of Canada and Mexico, but we have a trillion flights a day to all the major hubs, so if the natural demand to avoid a couple of hours in ATL/ORD/EWR/JFK/PHL isn’t there, why throw good money after bad for a vanity project?
 
flycmh2009
Posts: 36
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 1:22 am

Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Tue Jul 16, 2019 3:30 pm

greenair727 wrote:
Regarding the missing Cleveland prediction by Boyd, note that these are just his guesses. He has Columbus, Ohio on the list. But comparing CLE to CMH, Cleveland is a much larger market, both in population AND size of the economy; plus looking at the last few years, CLE GDP is growing faster than Columbus. There's also talk that the Columbus economy is cooling off, while Cleveland is suddenly rebounding quickly (and from a larger base). He may be using old data or information. I wouldn't read too much into his CMH over CLE--he appears to have missed some things there.


Despite a supposed growth in the Cleveland economy, metro CLE population has been dwindling for quite some time now. Within the past year or so, Columbus metro population now exceeds that of Cleveland, and is quickly catching up to Cincinnati. While I agree Columbus does lack in economic prowess compared to its in-state siblings with regards to some of the businesses based in those cities, I believe the scale still tilts towards Columbus. Being the capital, home to one of the largest universities, that's now also a prominent research institution, and still a very diverse economy. For years, Columbus got a bad rap, everyone assuming it was a rust-belt city. Only geographically, not economically. I believe Cincinnati and Cleveland's economies have benefitted over Columbus in years past because they previously served as hubs, and had built-in customer bases from that. My 2 cents.
 
portcolumbus
Posts: 1656
Joined: Tue Nov 14, 2000 7:10 am

Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Tue Jul 16, 2019 3:44 pm

The 3 C's of Ohio are virtually identical in terms of GDP. They're #28, 29 and 30.
 
Italianflyer
Posts: 647
Joined: Sun Nov 11, 2007 3:06 pm

Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Tue Jul 16, 2019 4:05 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
enilria wrote:


Even with Pre-clearance I remember reading there still needs to be FIS facilities in place, I believe this was cited somewhere as to why SDF didn't have service to YYZ.


Actually SDF has bern connected to YYZ....twice....on AC Connect. Once on a Junkstream and again on a 1900. Both failed, partly due to bad timing (9/11 then the 2008 meltdown).
 
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keesje
Posts: 13121
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Tue Jul 16, 2019 4:29 pm

WaywardMemphian wrote:
Bluegrass60 wrote:
I would respect Boyd's views vs any of the amateurs on airliners.net

Actually think SDF could work very well for BA to LHR. That flight would provide an option for the population and thier economies within 1.5-2 hour radius of [email protected] The TATL competition in the region is only CDG Add to that the possibility of air cargo/air express lift for UPS....then add the tourism component (bourbon & horses ... riverboats) coupled with SDF plans for FIS and intl gates (part of $100-$200m capital improvements in works).....seems to me a better candidate than MEM and others cited by Boyd....


Memphis has riverboats, air cargo, big time music tourism interest, bbq lore, basically a new concourse on the way, global entry already on site ect, ect, ect.

There is the made famous by Arlo Guthrie "City of New Orleans" Amtrak service. Sadly no such service to Nashville.

You make a good point about the Whiskey trail.

Louisville could compliment Existing Nashville service much like Memphis for one direction travelers. However, being just back from Europe, Jack Daneils is the big American name there and that is basically a Tennesee thing that can easily be done between Nashville and Memphis. Make sure you book a dinner at Mrs. Mary's way in advance.

As for ground hubbing, there's the Little Rock MSA, North Ark, Mo. Boothill, Tupelo/North MS. I believe there's around 4 million within a 3 hr drive of Memphis and someone like me in XNA, MEM is as close as Dallas if I want to park in a long term lot and not connect.

Birmingham is between MEM/ATL and Jackson MS is between MEM/MSY


& don't forget Mud Island :wink2: I agree, would be great to have daily AMS-MEM back & I'm sure the Mephis tourist industry can organize stuff, Elvis, boats, BBQ's.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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PatrickZ80
Posts: 3889
Joined: Tue Jul 13, 2010 5:33 am

Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Tue Jul 16, 2019 4:46 pm

Varsity1 wrote:
GRR?

It can hardly sustain mainline service to Chicago.


Perhaps because it is too close to Chicago? Seems to me it's faster to drive to Chicago than to fly.

I've looked it up at the Amtrak site, it's just over 4 hours by train. That ain't worth flying. In fact I dare say with such good ground transport flights shouldn't exist.
 
mspeaumsn
Posts: 17
Joined: Sat Mar 10, 2018 10:40 am

Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Tue Jul 16, 2019 4:50 pm

GSPSPOT wrote:
What, no MKE? JK (sorta)


Hopefully, it should not be out of the realm of possibility, especially when the new international/ FIS area is completed. MKE service would be a great alternative to schlepping to ORD (or MSP). IMO
Last edited by mspeaumsn on Tue Jul 16, 2019 4:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
WaywardMemphian
Posts: 1239
Joined: Sat Dec 13, 2014 9:05 pm

Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Tue Jul 16, 2019 4:51 pm

keesje wrote:
WaywardMemphian wrote:
Bluegrass60 wrote:
I would respect Boyd's views vs any of the amateurs on airliners.net

Actually think SDF could work very well for BA to LHR. That flight would provide an option for the population and thier economies within 1.5-2 hour radius of [email protected] The TATL competition in the region is only CDG Add to that the possibility of air cargo/air express lift for UPS....then add the tourism component (bourbon & horses ... riverboats) coupled with SDF plans for FIS and intl gates (part of $100-$200m capital improvements in works).....seems to me a better candidate than MEM and others cited by Boyd....


Memphis has riverboats, air cargo, big time music tourism interest, bbq lore, basically a new concourse on the way, global entry already on site ect, ect, ect.

There is the made famous by Arlo Guthrie "City of New Orleans" Amtrak service. Sadly no such service to Nashville.

You make a good point about the Whiskey trail.

Louisville could compliment Existing Nashville service much like Memphis for one direction travelers. However, being just back from Europe, Jack Daneils is the big American name there and that is basically a Tennesee thing that can easily be done between Nashville and Memphis. Make sure you book a dinner at Mrs. Mary's way in advance.

As for ground hubbing, there's the Little Rock MSA, North Ark, Mo. Boothill, Tupelo/North MS. I believe there's around 4 million within a 3 hr drive of Memphis and someone like me in XNA, MEM is as close as Dallas if I want to park in a long term lot and not connect.

Birmingham is between MEM/ATL and Jackson MS is between MEM/MSY


& don't forget Mud Island :wink2: I agree, would be great to have daily AMS-MEM back & I'm sure the Mephis tourist industry can organize stuff, Elvis, boats, BBQ's.


Having just spent 6 weeks in Europe, Memphis needs to keep and update the River Walk, museum and amp on Mud Island and turn the rest into a version Tivoli Gardens in Copenhagen complete with a new Aquarium ran by the Memphis Zoo(one of the best zoos around) and host a european style Christmas market from early November to Christmas and do the place up in lights to extend the season. Mud Island screams a Tivoli Gardens like attraction.

Arkansas State University hadsdone wonders with Johnny Cash's childhood home at Dyess Colony in NEA. It should be proposed and turned into a National Monument considering how it was founded because of the Great Depression.

As for BBQ, I go into this place along the Thames in London cause it had Memphis style BBQ on the menu posted outside and being a Memphian, I wanted to see for myself. They brought me a plate of pulled pork already sauced and with no damn bun. I fell about the place in laughter.
 
birdbrainz
Posts: 493
Joined: Fri May 27, 2005 6:57 am

Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Tue Jul 16, 2019 5:05 pm

Coronado990 wrote:
Ok...GRR would really be a strange one. What's the reasoning there?


Agreed, unless someone makes a CRJ-700XXXLR
A good landing is one you can walk away from. A great landing is if the aircraft can be flown again.
 
Cbusflyer
Posts: 8
Joined: Thu Aug 23, 2018 12:09 am

Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Tue Jul 16, 2019 5:15 pm

greenair727 wrote:
Regarding the missing Cleveland prediction by Boyd, note that these are just his guesses. He has Columbus, Ohio on the list. But comparing CLE to CMH, Cleveland is a much larger market, both in population AND size of the economy; plus looking at the last few years, CLE GDP is growing faster than Columbus. There's also talk that the Columbus economy is cooling off, while Cleveland is suddenly rebounding quickly (and from a larger base). He may be using old data or information. I wouldn't read too much into his CMH over CLE--he appears to have missed some things there.


While all true, this is not the overall feel and trend if you actually live in Ohio. Being from Northern Ohio and now living in Columbus, the feeling between the two is quite drastic. Cleveland has the history, architecture, food, etc but it lacks the positive vibes. For everything Columbus lacks, somehow people including myself love it and more and more people are gravitating towards it from other parts of Ohio. 10 years from now, I believe Columbus will be the leader in nearly every category.
 
EK77WNH
Posts: 193
Joined: Sun Feb 24, 2019 4:42 pm

Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Tue Jul 16, 2019 5:24 pm

I talked about MHT possibilities in my article 'The Ghosting of an Airport'

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/ghosting ... -van-veen/

I think the XLR opens up markets and routes from European carriers, and they all won't be able to go to 'Boston.'

As to why 'those' airports made the list: Boyd is a consultancy; perhaps those airports PAID THEM to say that.
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