greenair727
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Tue Jul 16, 2019 5:39 pm

Cbusflyer wrote:
greenair727 wrote:
Regarding the missing Cleveland prediction by Boyd, note that these are just his guesses. He has Columbus, Ohio on the list. But comparing CLE to CMH, Cleveland is a much larger market, both in population AND size of the economy; plus looking at the last few years, CLE GDP is growing faster than Columbus. There's also talk that the Columbus economy is cooling off, while Cleveland is suddenly rebounding quickly (and from a larger base). He may be using old data or information. I wouldn't read too much into his CMH over CLE--he appears to have missed some things there.


While all true, this is not the overall feel and trend if you actually live in Ohio. Being from Northern Ohio and now living in Columbus, the feeling between the two is quite drastic. Cleveland has the history, architecture, food, etc but it lacks the positive vibes. For everything Columbus lacks, somehow people including myself love it and more and more people are gravitating towards it from other parts of Ohio. 10 years from now, I believe Columbus will be the leader in nearly every category.


I dunno...Columbus still has a 'small town' vibe to it though and that's not just my perspective. I've spoken with many people from outside Ohio or the US who have lived in Columbus then moved to Cleveland and to them its a world of difference, like going from a small town to a big city. I agree Cleveland has lots of issues, but its still very much a major metropolis and still the main city in Ohio for sure.
 
EK77WNH
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Tue Jul 16, 2019 5:43 pm

enilria wrote:
Unless somebody else comes to the party I think it's over in terms of markets like PVD/SWF getting new Atlantic service. The legacies have nothing to gain from this if competition isn't forcing it.


Here's my thesis (using Boston and the secondary airports surrounding it) as an example:
1.) Not everyone wants to go to 'Boston.' It's a small city; most of the metro area's 5 million people are outside of its boundaries
2.) Logan airport has a locked-in footprint: water on two sides, neighborhoods on two sides.
3.) JetBlue and Delta are themselves adding a massive amount of congestion as they fight each other for Boston supremacy.
4.) Time is money: a landing plane waiting an hour for a gate to open up (Cathay Pacific from Hong Kong) wastes both. Leaving the gate at 9am with wheels-up almost an hour later wastes both, too.
5.) The XLR isn't just being bought by B6 and AA to fly to Europe; it's being bought by European carriers wanting to come here.
6.) There will NEVER be another 'new' airport built. The ONLY option is to better utilize airports near a major city. Logan's 'pain points' will only exacerbate.
Next Trip:
JAL 7-8 BOS-NRT-BOS, 787-9
September
 
strfyr51
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Tue Jul 16, 2019 5:45 pm

Boyd Group is a consulting firm. But with this throwing Crap against a Wall to see if it Sticks? I have a hard time in knowing WHAT they Consult..
 
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stl07
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Tue Jul 16, 2019 5:51 pm

EK77WNH wrote:
As to why 'those' airports made the list: Boyd is a consultancy; perhaps those airports PAID THEM to say that.

:checkmark: :checkmark: :checkmark:
How can you make a list and NOT include some of the most rumored cities (as in the airports have come out and said they are on a shortlist) like BNA and STL, especially when also using metrics like foreign investment? Airports that are close to signing deals with airlines no longer need to pay for these "consultants"
Interesting how every thread is spammed with "bring back paid membership, there are too many spammers"
 
greenair727
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Tue Jul 16, 2019 6:10 pm

portcolumbus wrote:
The 3 C's of Ohio are virtually identical in terms of GDP. They're #28, 29 and 30.


Really?

2017 (latest data available; source: BEA.gov]

1. Cleveland: $212B
2. Cincinnati: $179B
3. Columbus: $136B

....so Cleveland is more than 1.5x larger than Columbus. MSA boundaries are known to be very inaccurate. But it doesn't matter--we're talking air markets. For CLE, this includes the MSAs of CLE, Akron, Canton, and Youngstown; for CMH--Columbus MSA; for CVG: Cincinnati and Dayton MSAs.

Source bea.gov
 
slider
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Tue Jul 16, 2019 6:17 pm

Mike Boyd loves himself a whole lotta Mike Boyd.

Good grief.
 
Bluegrass60
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Tue Jul 16, 2019 6:29 pm

Obviously Boyd is a consulting group...and as such they get paid to consult by all the players in the aviation vertical (airlines, aircraft manufacturers, airports, econ dev etc).

They've been doing this for 35 years...that is 6 years after the Airline Deregulation Act was signed. Looking at the industry C-Suite that attends their annual conference...I think it is safe to say they know more about this industry than anyone on airliners.net (save consultants who anonymously post/altho my understanding is that a.net has not been taken seriously for many years).

I have zero connection or interest in Boyd other than the info found on their website which I do find compelling.

Anyway, back to the topic...Boyd's top dozen candidates for the next wave of TATL service....
 
kipfilet
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Tue Jul 16, 2019 6:37 pm

Weird that STL is not on the list, always thought it was one of the largest unserved TATL markets.
 
WaywardMemphian
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Tue Jul 16, 2019 6:41 pm

WaywardMemphian wrote:
keesje wrote:
WaywardMemphian wrote:

Memphis has riverboats, air cargo, big time music tourism interest, bbq lore, basically a new concourse on the way, global entry already on site ect, ect, ect.

There is the made famous by Arlo Guthrie "City of New Orleans" Amtrak service. Sadly no such service to Nashville.

You make a good point about the Whiskey trail.

Louisville could compliment Existing Nashville service much like Memphis for one direction travelers. However, being just back from Europe, Jack Daneils is the big American name there and that is basically a Tennesee thing that can easily be done between Nashville and Memphis. Make sure you book a dinner at Mrs. Mary's way in advance.

As for ground hubbing, there's the Little Rock MSA, North Ark, Mo. Boothill, Tupelo/North MS. I believe there's around 4 million within a 3 hr drive of Memphis and someone like me in XNA, MEM is as close as Dallas if I want to park in a long term lot and not connect.

Birmingham is between MEM/ATL and Jackson MS is between MEM/MSY


& don't forget Mud Island :wink2: I agree, would be great to have daily AMS-MEM back & I'm sure the Mephis tourist industry can organize stuff, Elvis, boats, BBQ's.


Having just spent 6 weeks in Europe, Memphis needs to keep and update the River Walk, museum and amp on Mud Island and turn the rest into a version Tivoli Gardens in Copenhagen complete with a new Aquarium ran by the Memphis Zoo(one of the best zoos around) and host a european style Christmas market from early November to Christmas and do the place up in lights to extend the season. Mud Island screams a Tivoli Gardens like attraction.

Arkansas State University hadsdone wonders with Johnny Cash's childhood home at Dyess Colony in NEA. It should be proposed and turned into a National Monument considering how it was founded because of the Great Depression.

As for BBQ, I go into this place along the Thames in London cause it had Memphis style BBQ on the menu posted outside and being a Memphian, I wanted to see for myself. They brought me a plate of pulled pork already sauced and with no damn bun. I fell about the place in laughter.


I mentioned it but didn't link it. So if anyone is in the area and likes the Man in Black.....

http://dyesscash.astate.edu/

Make it day with a visit to nearby....
https://www.wilsonarkansas.com/
 
Miamiairport
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Tue Jul 16, 2019 6:51 pm

As newer fuel efficient a/c comes on the market and as big city routes have gotten even more congested (think B6 possibly flying JFK/LON, BOS/LON) it's only natural secondary cities are getting a new look. I would assume Byod Group looks at data relating to International businesses in the area, incomes across the metro area, airport facilities (and the possibility the airport authority will make improvements to attract TATL flying), etc. Norwegian had mixed success with secondary cities in the US. Ultimately with no hard data on how similar flights in the past have performed it will still be a crap shoot to a certain extent.
 
UPNYGuy
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Tue Jul 16, 2019 6:54 pm

USAirALB wrote:
UPNYGuy wrote:
USAirALB wrote:

To be fair, they had a good 13 year run of service, and all Northeastern US cities that had B1900 service to YYZ eventually lost service.


BDL was upgauged to a dash when it was originally on a 1900. Beech dropped, dash comes in. If my memory serves me correctly (and it doesn’t always) BDL was one of the only 1900 transborder outstations that got upgauged though.

Correct. BDL-YYZ was always a Dash route (although I think it was usually supplemented by a single daily B1900 frequency) that was operated by Jazz. BDL-YUL was a B1900 route that was upguaged to a single Dash flight.

PVD also used to be a B1900 station that now sees a seasonal CRJ.


I have been on the BDL-YYZ B1900 several times. 2 hours in a 1900 can be tiring :). I like the plane, but not for flights that stretch that long.
 
DCA-ROCguy
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Tue Jul 16, 2019 7:02 pm

enilria wrote:
Here's the problem, Level and Aer Lingus exist to stop Norwegian. They have succeeded. Eurowings existed to stop AirBerlin, it succeeded and now it is folding up. I expect IAG to stop the rapid expansion of these LCC brands as well. I don't like it, but history says that is what will happen.Unless somebody else comes to the party I think it's over in terms of markets like PVD/SWF getting new Atlantic service. The legacies have nothing to gain from this if competition isn't forcing it.


History actually suggests that 2019 is a burp in the feast for ULCC transatlantic. There is significant demand for ULCC travel, domestic and international. ULCC got entrenched domestically with Allegiant, Frontier, and Spirit, and it will get entrenched across the Atlantic, too

WOW expanded too fast, with some too-large aircraft to support a second carrier at a KEF hub. Norwegian is figuring out how to best do their model, and they've been hit by the MAX debacle. Level and Eurowings fly / flew jumbos across the Atlantic, right? Are their legacy puppetmasters going to dedicate a lot of NEO and Re-MAX aircraft across the Atlantic, as those aircraft become widely available, when those narrowbody aircraft have lucrative regional routes to fly? I don't think so. And how much will Aer Lingus grow?

Re-MAX aircraft will be flying in 2020, and Airbus will keep putting out NEO's. JetBlue getting into the TATL game will bring a player very experienced at battling legacies in major markets. Norwegian will recalibrate itself. Whether the next wave of ULCC growth will involve medium-size markets, or will be largely at major population centers, remains to be seen. But the market is there. Legacies won't be able to keep it down forever, just like their silly tantrums about the ME3 haven't stopped those carriers.

Jim
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747megatop
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Tue Jul 16, 2019 7:19 pm

Bluegrass60 wrote:
Top dozen markets to next get TATL : https://www.aviationplanning.com/monday ... il-1-2019/

No particular order:
ALB, MHT, PVD, GRR, CMH, ORF, RIC, SDF, CVG, MEM, SAV, JAX
edit - CVG and PVD already have TATL

Traditional Demand Drivers Are Out. The key point is to understand that the new criteria for this expansion no longer gravitates around local population, but instead a range of economic dynamics. This includes the composition of the regional industrial base, the accessibility to a wide feed area (ground hubbing) and the nature of international investment accessible.

Boyd had earlier projected TATL for IND, BNA, AUS, MSY and...CHS. He was right on all counts

Any chance of strengthening of TATL service out of DEN and PHX? Once would think there would be more TATL service out of these 2 metros..or..is the demand too weak?
 
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PatrickZ80
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Tue Jul 16, 2019 7:58 pm

747megatop wrote:
Any chance of strengthening of TATL service out of DEN and PHX? Once would think there would be more TATL service out of these 2 metros..or..is the demand too weak?


Both of these airports have the disadvantage of being a 'hot and high' airport, meaning that payloads are restricted. Therefor they're not the most ideal airports for long haul flights.

Also for Phoenix I've heard that this city has one of the lowest incomes per capita in the region, meaning people got less money to spend. That would likely reduce the demand for air travel and certainly long haul air travel. If people don't have the money for it, they don't fly. Simple as that.
 
Dieuwer
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Tue Jul 16, 2019 8:06 pm

EK77WNH wrote:
enilria wrote:
Unless somebody else comes to the party I think it's over in terms of markets like PVD/SWF getting new Atlantic service. The legacies have nothing to gain from this if competition isn't forcing it.


Here's my thesis (using Boston and the secondary airports surrounding it) as an example:
1.) Not everyone wants to go to 'Boston.' It's a small city; most of the metro area's 5 million people are outside of its boundaries
2.) Logan airport has a locked-in footprint: water on two sides, neighborhoods on two sides.
3.) JetBlue and Delta are themselves adding a massive amount of congestion as they fight each other for Boston supremacy.
4.) Time is money: a landing plane waiting an hour for a gate to open up (Cathay Pacific from Hong Kong) wastes both. Leaving the gate at 9am with wheels-up almost an hour later wastes both, too.
5.) The XLR isn't just being bought by B6 and AA to fly to Europe; it's being bought by European carriers wanting to come here.
6.) There will NEVER be another 'new' airport built. The ONLY option is to better utilize airports near a major city. Logan's 'pain points' will only exacerbate.


7) Airport access road congestion, leading to higher access fees charged (hello Lyft/Uber relegated to the central parking lot and slapped with rush hour fees).
8) Mass-Pike, Route 93 congestion. "Why don't you leave your home 6 hours in advance 'cause you will sit in a traffic jam for 4".

Seems to me MHT, PVD have a juicy business case laid out for them to siphon traffic away from BOS.
 
DalRiada
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Tue Jul 16, 2019 8:35 pm

enilria wrote:
Bluegrass60 wrote:
Boyd suggested BA via LHR as a candidate. Maybe Aer Lingus? Likely there are others and they are not ULCC but network carriers....therefor support one of the drivers: "through hub feed...aka beyond LHR; FRA; CDG; AMS etc"

Not sure why STL is not on the list; the list is Boyd's not mine

Here's the problem, Level and Aer Lingus exist to stop Norwegian. They have succeeded. Eurowings existed to stop AirBerlin, it succeeded and now it is folding up. I expect IAG to stop the rapid expansion of these LCC brands as well. I don't like it, but history says that is what will happen.

Unless somebody else comes to the party I think it's over in terms of markets like PVD/SWF getting new Atlantic service. The legacies have nothing to gain from this if competition isn't forcing it.


I don’t think you’ve been following IAG’s plans for EI too closely then? Or even fully understand the EI’s current standing in IAG? I wouldn’t class EI as a LCC either.
 
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enilria
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Tue Jul 16, 2019 9:04 pm

DalRiada wrote:
enilria wrote:
Bluegrass60 wrote:
Boyd suggested BA via LHR as a candidate. Maybe Aer Lingus? Likely there are others and they are not ULCC but network carriers....therefor support one of the drivers: "through hub feed...aka beyond LHR; FRA; CDG; AMS etc"

Not sure why STL is not on the list; the list is Boyd's not mine

Here's the problem, Level and Aer Lingus exist to stop Norwegian. They have succeeded. Eurowings existed to stop AirBerlin, it succeeded and now it is folding up. I expect IAG to stop the rapid expansion of these LCC brands as well. I don't like it, but history says that is what will happen.

Unless somebody else comes to the party I think it's over in terms of markets like PVD/SWF getting new Atlantic service. The legacies have nothing to gain from this if competition isn't forcing it.


I don’t think you’ve been following IAG’s plans for EI too closely then? Or even fully understand the EI’s current standing in IAG? I wouldn’t class EI as a LCC either.

I could say the same about your comments. Trust me.
 
DalRiada
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Tue Jul 16, 2019 10:37 pm

enilria wrote:
DalRiada wrote:
enilria wrote:
Here's the problem, Level and Aer Lingus exist to stop Norwegian. They have succeeded. Eurowings existed to stop AirBerlin, it succeeded and now it is folding up. I expect IAG to stop the rapid expansion of these LCC brands as well. I don't like it, but history says that is what will happen.

Unless somebody else comes to the party I think it's over in terms of markets like PVD/SWF getting new Atlantic service. The legacies have nothing to gain from this if competition isn't forcing it.


I don’t think you’ve been following IAG’s plans for EI too closely then? Or even fully understand the EI’s current standing in IAG? I wouldn’t class EI as a LCC either.

I could say the same about your comments. Trust me.


You could be right. But with the fairly rapid expansion of EI’s long haul fleet (narrow and wide body) due to continue over the next few years, I don’t think you can say that EI will be wound up and I don’t see what brand it would be rolled into. Whilst LHR is capacity constrained, it will also remain useful for IAG to get regional U.K. pax onto IAG TATL services.
 
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ElroyJetson
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Tue Jul 16, 2019 11:11 pm

JAX and RIC would be my top two picks as an A321 Neo LR can reach both cities, each has a strong Corporate presence, and both airports are growing rapidly in term of pax traffic. Colonial Williamsburg, Busch Gardens, Jamestown are all 40 miles from RIC. JAX has a lot of tourist options down the coast (i.e St Augustine, Daytona Beach, Space coast etc.).
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Fargo
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Tue Jul 16, 2019 11:14 pm

WaywardMemphian wrote:
Tourism is up in 2019 for Memphis, again the UK is a big source of international visitors.

According to the report, music is the main draw for Memphis tourists worldwide.

Domestic tourists most commonly visit Memphis from Nashville, Dallas, Atlanta, Little Rock and Chicago, while most international tourists come from Canada, the United Kingdom, Japan and Australia, Memphis Tourism found.


https://www.commercialappeal.com/story/ ... 622357001/

New, improved terminal on the way, Global Entry on site

Memphis seems to have more upside on the tourism aspect than the others(kinda like the surprise Austin was). A re0cently gained 788 from an AIG buyout of Norwegian operating seasonally at 3x could fit the bill and compliment, not compete with the BNA and MSY flights as this is known as the Musical Triangle.


With all due respect, it is likely going to be a while before MEM sees legacy TATL service due to being in the shadow of BNA. I could see a LCC sooner if one proves to have a sustainable business model, but Norwegian just can't seem to get their act together.

The problem Memphis faces is while tourism is indeed on the rise (and that is an encouraging sign), it still does not have a lot of the factors or the energy Nashville has that attracts new service; a fast growing, affluent population, lots of demand for business travel (I know Memphis is no slouch in business, but it isn't on the same level as Nashville), a tier one university within it's city limits, etc. This is not to say Memphis doesn't have the potential, it certainly has a lot of the ingredients, but they need truly visionary leadership to lead the area forward if they want to close the gap with Nashville.

MEM still lacks service to major hubs such has SFO, SEA, BOS and even JFK. There are a lot of domestic holes that need to be filled before focusing on TATL. Also, to make the facilities more attractive, they need to move the FIS facilities out of B and into either A or C for O&D purposes.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Tue Jul 16, 2019 11:31 pm

WaywardMemphian wrote:
Tourism is up in 2019 for Memphis, again the UK is a big source of international visitors.

According to the report, music is the main draw for Memphis tourists worldwide.

Domestic tourists most commonly visit Memphis from Nashville, Dallas, Atlanta, Little Rock and Chicago, while most international tourists come from Canada, the United Kingdom, Japan and Australia, Memphis Tourism found.


https://www.commercialappeal.com/story/ ... 622357001/


That Commercial Appeal piece is a little thin. (As a former Memphis resident and reader of the CA this surprises me not at all.) It says tourist count is up. It doesn't say how many fly. It doesn't say how many are international. It doesn't say how many are originating in Europe, nor if they stopped at other U.S. destinations before Memphis. As such it's a very weak argument for TATL service. The State of Hawaii tourism reports are the gold standard.
 
peterinlisbon
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Tue Jul 16, 2019 11:53 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
All those minor airports along with their codes are unknown to most of us. How about actually naming cities instead of just airport codes. I'll even propose one. Spokane connecting to European hub might do well. But not until there is a nominal 5000 mile 200 passenger plane.


That would work well as part of the Hub and Spokane model.
 
peterinlisbon
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Wed Jul 17, 2019 12:04 am

I think some large European cities like London and Paris have the potential for new transatlantic services once it's possible to reach more remote places in the US economically with a 737/A320. Potentially it could save passengers time and money because they can avoid having to buy two separate tickets or fly with a network carrier to reach their destination. A lot of US cities have enough population to fill up one daily flight to London.

Going the other way, I think it would also be possible to have new services from major US cities to some smaller cities in Europe that were previously overlooked.
 
WaywardMemphian
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Wed Jul 17, 2019 2:10 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
WaywardMemphian wrote:
Tourism is up in 2019 for Memphis, again the UK is a big source of international visitors.

According to the report, music is the main draw for Memphis tourists worldwide.

Domestic tourists most commonly visit Memphis from Nashville, Dallas, Atlanta, Little Rock and Chicago, while most international tourists come from Canada, the United Kingdom, Japan and Australia, Memphis Tourism found.


https://www.commercialappeal.com/story/ ... 622357001/


That Commercial Appeal piece is a little thin. (As a former Memphis resident and reader of the CA this surprises me not at all.) It says tourist count is up. It doesn't say how many fly. It doesn't say how many are international. It doesn't say how many are originating in Europe, nor if they stopped at other U.S. destinations before Memphis. As such it's a very weak argument for TATL service. The State of Hawaii tourism reports are the gold standard.


I've read elsewhere the international numbers are up but it was behind paywalls at different sites.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Wed Jul 17, 2019 2:15 am

ElroyJetson wrote:
JAX and RIC would be my top two picks as an A321 Neo LR can reach both cities, each has a strong Corporate presence, and both airports are growing rapidly in term of pax traffic. Colonial Williamsburg, Busch Gardens, Jamestown are all 40 miles from RIC. JAX has a lot of tourist options down the coast (i.e St Augustine, Daytona Beach, Space coast etc.).


Traffic isn't there for RIC, JAX probably has a case for TATL especially when taking into account bleed to MCO
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Cubsrule
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Wed Jul 17, 2019 2:49 am

Midwestindy wrote:
ElroyJetson wrote:
JAX and RIC would be my top two picks as an A321 Neo LR can reach both cities, each has a strong Corporate presence, and both airports are growing rapidly in term of pax traffic. Colonial Williamsburg, Busch Gardens, Jamestown are all 40 miles from RIC. JAX has a lot of tourist options down the coast (i.e St Augustine, Daytona Beach, Space coast etc.).


Traffic isn't there for RIC, JAX probably has a case for TATL especially when taking into account bleed to MCO


Do those data attempt to account for bleed? There are a couple of others high on that list that likely bleed a lot (e.g. SAT).
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RL757PVD
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Wed Jul 17, 2019 3:14 am

Personally I think DE could make another go at PVD and be much more successful now that it (PVD Europe service) is a known entity unlike when they were trying to change hearts and minds over a 12 week summer schedule.

in the 5 year timeframe with the right players and assuming the 73% BOS terminal CPE increase goes through I could see
DUB Daily (737/A321)
LGW Daily (737/A321) or 4x weekly DY 787 split with SWF
FRA 2-3x weekly seasonal
LIS less than daily varying frequencies with season A321
PDL like whats previously been supported, the BOS costs and congestion will force them to look at PVD again
Wildcard of TACV return? from the looks of it, they supported higher fares and higher loads at PVD than BOS.

Caribbean places like CUN and SDQ could come online, hopefully the new PUJ service does well despite the bad press lately.
Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
 
DCA-ROCguy
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Wed Jul 17, 2019 7:15 am

DCA-ROCguy wrote:
Re-MAX aircraft will be flying in 2020, and Airbus will keep putting out NEO's. JetBlue getting into the TATL game will bring a player very experienced at battling legacies in major markets. Norwegian will recalibrate itself. Whether the next wave of ULCC growth will involve medium-size markets, or will be largely at major population centers, remains to be seen. But the market is there. Legacies won't be able to keep it down forever, just like their silly tantrums about the ME3 haven't stopped those carriers. Jim


I'll withdraw confident statement about Norwegian. We'll see what happens with them, they have survived their 787 and MAX issues so far. But either way, it seems to me that there's a market for ULCC TATL travel by well-run carriers.

Jim
Need a new airline paint scheme? Better call Saul! (Bass that is)
 
portcolumbus
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Wed Jul 17, 2019 11:08 am

greenair727 wrote:
portcolumbus wrote:
The 3 C's of Ohio are virtually identical in terms of GDP. They're #28, 29 and 30.


Really?

2017 (latest data available; source: BEA.gov]

1. Cleveland: $212B
2. Cincinnati: $179B
3. Columbus: $136B

....so Cleveland is more than 1.5x larger than Columbus. MSA boundaries are known to be very inaccurate. But it doesn't matter--we're talking air markets. For CLE, this includes the MSAs of CLE, Akron, Canton, and Youngstown; for CMH--Columbus MSA; for CVG: Cincinnati and Dayton MSAs.

Source bea.gov


I'm sure you're right, but this is from the BEA site. What am I missing?

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Andy33
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Wed Jul 17, 2019 11:49 am

DCA-ROCguy wrote:
Level and Eurowings fly / flew jumbos across the Atlantic, right?
Jim

Wrong!
Neither has ever operated a 747 or larger. Level's transatlantic service is entirely operated by A330s. Now there was an IAG operation out of Paris-Orly called Openskies that used 757s and a 767 on Paris-NYC routes, this got folded into Level and new A330s arrived to replace the fleet. Level's flights from Barcelona have always been A330.
Eurowings transatlantic flights are A330 and A340, they've never had any other longhaul planes.
 
Bluegrass60
Topic Author
Posts: 348
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Wed Jul 17, 2019 12:06 pm

OAG Traffic Analyzer and other sources of passenger activity usually provide estimated passenger volumes for flights from an origin airport, city, state, country or region to a destination airport, city, state, country or region. Directionally they might be accurate but estimates are estimates. Other criteria that should be reviewed is "other options" for that city.

Example 1: MEM with 91k PAX to Europe. The nearest drive-able airport with NS service to Europe is BNA...212 miles east/3 hours. Likely some MEM pax bound for Europe make the trek to BNA but that is probably the exception.

Example 2: RIC has 51K PAX to Europe. The nearest drive-able airport with NS to Europe is IAD....121 mile/less than 2 hours north. Very likely many RIC pax bound for Europe make the trek to IAD. I suspect RIC's total PAX to Europe is @ same as MEM 91k.
 
WaywardMemphian
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Wed Jul 17, 2019 12:27 pm

Bluegrass60 wrote:
OAG Traffic Analyzer and other sources of passenger activity usually provide estimated passenger volumes for flights from an origin airport, city, state, country or region to a destination airport, city, state, country or region. Directionally they might be accurate but estimates are estimates. Other criteria that should be reviewed is "other options" for that city.

Example 1: MEM with 91k PAX to Europe. The nearest drive-able airport with NS service to Europe is BNA...212 miles east/3 hours. Likely some MEM pax bound for Europe make the trek to BNA but that is probably the exception.

Example 2: RIC has 51K PAX to Europe. The nearest drive-able airport with NS to Europe is IAD....121 mile/less than 2 hours north. Very likely many RIC pax bound for Europe make the trek to IAD. I suspect RIC's total PAX to Europe is @ same as MEM 91k.


MEM to BNA at 3hrs, lol, only in the middle of the night. But, yes, there is still bleed to BNA from MEM. My Brother has done within the last year to fly his family to NYC as you can get Southwest nonstop fares at around 200 r/t if you pick the right days. I nearly flew the BA flight to Heathrow myself for my vacation.

This is two years old but gives an idea of numbers with many of the same airports listed in this Boyd piece. I believe Memphis has some of the best tourism growth/stumulation upside of ones listed. It gets into the whole Austin thing a bit.

https://www.anna.aero/2017/09/13/kansas ... om-europe/

MCI had since had Iceland come and go along with STL.

Air Canada seems to have found a niche in Memphis with it supposedly getting a fair bit of TATL connecting business since this article. Internation tourist numbers have ris3each year since this. Their is no doubt many fly and then drive to Memphis outside of connecting there. I've mentioned this before


https://americanamusictriangle.com/ttps ... e24260403/

https://www.wmcactionnews5.com/story/38 ... it-in-may/

https://www.bizjournals.com/memphis/new ... tatus.html


Memphis seems to have put together a fall music fest called the Mempho Fest to compliment The Beale Street Music Feat in May. Some fairly big names have worked to pull it off and it is held at the AgriCenter farms area, another jewel of Memphis.

Graceland is undergoing major development is has lofty goals of hosting entertainers there as well, in fact their ambitions of a 5k plus area has irked the Memphis Grizzlies they have pushed to block incentives on that front. They have already booked some solid acts for this year regardless.
 
33lspotter
Posts: 544
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Wed Jul 17, 2019 12:38 pm

GCT64 wrote:
As a regular UK - MA commuter: BOS, especially international Terminal E is getting busier and busier, but more importantly the road journey to/from Logan is getting worse and worse with no prospect of improvement in sight. I can see a market for either LHR-MHT or LHR-PVD (and I would definitely be interested in those options) but whether BA would want to dilute their major BOS presence isn't clear to me.


I've long thought that MHT could siphon some TATL traffic away from Logan, yet — while both enroute car traffic and gate congestion are increasing — I do think reports of "saturation" at Logan are somewhat exaggerated.

That being said, in my view, any new service at MHT would not be BA, and certainly not service to LHR.
 
Babyshark
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Wed Jul 17, 2019 1:09 pm

ORF???
 
Dieuwer
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Wed Jul 17, 2019 1:13 pm

33lspotter wrote:
GCT64 wrote:
As a regular UK - MA commuter: BOS, especially international Terminal E is getting busier and busier, but more importantly the road journey to/from Logan is getting worse and worse with no prospect of improvement in sight. I can see a market for either LHR-MHT or LHR-PVD (and I would definitely be interested in those options) but whether BA would want to dilute their major BOS presence isn't clear to me.


I've long thought that MHT could siphon some TATL traffic away from Logan, yet — while both enroute car traffic and gate congestion are increasing — I do think reports of "saturation" at Logan are somewhat exaggerated.

That being said, in my view, any new service at MHT would not be BA, and certainly not service to LHR.


It is not just that Logan terminals are busy, or that I-90/93 is full with traffic. Arriving and departing airliners also are delayed, sitting on the tarmac/gate forever because of the clogged access between gates and runway.
 
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tjwgrr
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Wed Jul 17, 2019 1:16 pm

Varsity1 wrote:
GRR?

It can hardly sustain mainline service to Chicago.


UA/ AA/ WN operate 17-18 flights from GRR to Chicago daily. Granted, most are RJs with the exception being WN.

GRR currently has a FIS under construction. I don't think TATL flights are really on GRR's radar but rather flights to Mexico, the Caribbean, and Central America. I can envision charter TATL flights from GRR, but not scheduled.

The Grand Rapids MSA is approaching 1.1 million people.
Direct KNOBS, maintain 2700' until established on the localizer, cleared ILS runway 26 left approach.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Wed Jul 17, 2019 1:53 pm

Bluegrass60 wrote:
OAG Traffic Analyzer and other sources of passenger activity usually provide estimated passenger volumes for flights from an origin airport, city, state, country or region to a destination airport, city, state, country or region. Directionally they might be accurate but estimates are estimates. Other criteria that should be reviewed is "other options" for that city.

Example 1: MEM with 91k PAX to Europe. The nearest drive-able airport with NS service to Europe is BNA...212 miles east/3 hours. Likely some MEM pax bound for Europe make the trek to BNA but that is probably the exception.


I appreciate the OAG reference but I'll assert that MEM's competition for TATL traffic isn't BNA - it's the big variety of destinations available with a connection in ATL (and CLT). They cover most of the major origins/destinations in Europe (with some seasonality). BA xxx-LHR-MEM might be competitive (it would certainly cover more European airports) but Boyd may have more enthusiasm than me.
 
freakyrat
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Wed Jul 17, 2019 2:01 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
enilria wrote:
Bluegrass60 wrote:
Top dozen markets to next get TATL : https://www.aviationplanning.com/monday ... il-1-2019/

No particular order:
ALB, MHT, PVD, GRR, CMH, ORF, RIC, SDF, CVG, MEM, SAV, JAX
edit - CVG and PVD already have TATL

Traditional Demand Drivers Are Out. The key point is to understand that the new criteria for this expansion no longer gravitates around local population, but instead a range of economic dynamics. This includes the composition of the regional industrial base, the accessibility to a wide feed area (ground hubbing) and the nature of international investment accessible.

Boyd had earlier projected TATL for IND, BNA, AUS, MSY and...CHS. He was right on all counts

I like Boyd, but what airline is left to add these? The ULCCs are all but dead across the Atlantic. Norwegian just said they are going to curtail growth.


Several of these airports lack FIS facilities that can handle a 200-seat aircraft, so it seems like it would have to be someone from Ireland.


SBN opened their new FIS yesterday with a Atlas Air 747 Charter for the Liverpool FC.
 
EvanWSFO
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Wed Jul 17, 2019 2:05 pm

Andy33 wrote:
DCA-ROCguy wrote:
Level and Eurowings fly / flew jumbos across the Atlantic, right?
Jim

Wrong!
Neither has ever operated a 747 or larger. Level's transatlantic service is entirely operated by A330s. Now there was an IAG operation out of Paris-Orly called Openskies that used 757s and a 767 on Paris-NYC routes, this got folded into Level and new A330s arrived to replace the fleet. Level's flights from Barcelona have always been A330.
Eurowings transatlantic flights are A330 and A340, they've never had any other longhaul planes.


Most people consider any twin-aisle jet as a jumbo, so you might want to rethink calling someone out as being wrong! (my exclamation mark for sarcasm emphasis).
I have been on this site 15 years. A unrecoverable email account led me to starting over. Those of you who call me a rookie, you may stop ok?
 
EK77WNH
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Wed Jul 17, 2019 2:15 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
It is not just that Logan terminals are busy, or that I-90/93 is full with traffic. Arriving and departing airliners also are delayed, sitting on the tarmac/gate forever because of the clogged access between gates and runway.


More than once I've seen poor Cathay Pacific sitting all alone on a taxiway waiting for a gate, this after a 14-hour flight. I can't imagine passenger frustration in situations like that.

Next summer you'll probably have three A380s at Logan simultaneously. Emirates and BA haven't committed yet; only LH has. But I'd expect they'll bring it back. And by that time, construction at the new E Gates will make a big mess of things as far as remote-parking spots that will go away.

If a European airline wants to serve 'Boston,' then MHT/PVD would seem attractive to them, simply from a cost and congestion standpoint.
Next Trip:
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33lspotter
Posts: 544
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Wed Jul 17, 2019 3:41 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
It is not just that Logan terminals are busy, or that I-90/93 is full with traffic. Arriving and departing airliners also are delayed, sitting on the tarmac/gate forever because of the clogged access between gates and runway.


Yes, those are collateral issues that result from clogged gates. I used to see the BA 777 (BA203) routinely sitting on the tarmac for 40+ minutes while they waited for the Whalebus (BA212) to push back and depart. I myself was on a number of DY flights that had to wait 30+ minutes for a gate. Still, as VS4ever has opined before, I do not think Logan is quite "at capacity" yet, but certainly the longer this continues the more carriers and passengers will start to wonder about alternatives.

Edit: All told, still don't see BA going to MHT at all, not to mention from LHR.
Last edited by 33lspotter on Wed Jul 17, 2019 3:46 pm, edited 3 times in total.
 
Planeboy17
Posts: 322
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Wed Jul 17, 2019 3:41 pm

Varsity1 wrote:
GRR?

It can hardly sustain mainline service to Chicago.

I’m not saying GRR will, or should, get TATL service but you do realize that GRR is located straight across Lake Michigan?
I think it’s impressive that it has any mainline considering it’s roughly 100 air miles or so.
 
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enilria
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Wed Jul 17, 2019 3:44 pm

DalRiada wrote:
enilria wrote:
DalRiada wrote:

I don’t think you’ve been following IAG’s plans for EI too closely then? Or even fully understand the EI’s current standing in IAG? I wouldn’t class EI as a LCC either.

I could say the same about your comments. Trust me.


You could be right. But with the fairly rapid expansion of EI’s long haul fleet (narrow and wide body) due to continue over the next few years, I don’t think you can say that EI will be wound up and I don’t see what brand it would be rolled into. Whilst LHR is capacity constrained, it will also remain useful for IAG to get regional U.K. pax onto IAG TATL services.

Fleet plans can change VERY quickly. IAG sees EI and Level as their internal LCCs to take on mostly Norwegian. I don't think EI is really an LCC, but perhaps they think relative to BA and IB it is an LCC. Whatever the case, they can very easily divert those planes to another unit and retire older planes so that capacity is more flat. So the fleet plan means little. I think it really comes down to what happens with the remaining LCCs on the Atlantic. It's possible B6 will be enough to keep IAG interested in this side of the business, but I don't think B6 is really going to be offering LCC pricing. I think it'll be more like $1k RT from BOS/JFK to Europe in coach which is cheap-ER, but not cheap at the level that Norwegian or WW or the other failed carriers were at. I'm not sure that pricing level is so threatening that IAG will feel the need to keep up the capacity pressure. Same with FI. With WW now gone I see them also slowing their growth. Again, I don't like any of this, but this is what you do when competition goes away. You stop growing capacity and grow RASM/profits instead.

Looking at Level's performance, I think the knife falls there very soon after Norwegian makes clear how much the new CEO is going to pull back the growth on Atlantic.
 
Bluegrass60
Topic Author
Posts: 348
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Wed Jul 17, 2019 4:24 pm

MIflyer12 - "I appreciate the OAG reference but I'll assert that MEM's competition for TATL traffic isn't BNA - it's the big variety of destinations available with a connection in ATL (and CLT). They cover most of the major origins/destinations in Europe (with some seasonality). BA xxx-LHR-MEM might be competitive (it would certainly cover more European airports) but Boyd may have more enthusiasm than me."

Totally agree that TATL competition is primarily service from the Boyd 12 via hubs to Europe/Asia. That service is welcomed and a value the hub networks bring to the spokes. The advent of new longer range/economical aircraft provide opportunity for BA or other Legacy carrier to connect a US Domestic "spoke" to their European hub for service to that hub and via connections beyond that hub.

WaywardMemphian - MEM is 'blessed" by fact that nearest int'l airport is 3+ hours away. Int'l 'bleed' is minimized. Contrast that to RIC with IAD (< 2 hours) or SDF with CVG, IND (< 2hours) & BNA (closer to SDF than MEM to BNA) and you can see that while MEM 'bleed' is minimal...RIC/SDF etc have more severe "bleeding'.
 
WaywardMemphian
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Wed Jul 17, 2019 4:42 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
Bluegrass60 wrote:
OAG Traffic Analyzer and other sources of passenger activity usually provide estimated passenger volumes for flights from an origin airport, city, state, country or region to a destination airport, city, state, country or region. Directionally they might be accurate but estimates are estimates. Other criteria that should be reviewed is "other options" for that city.

Example 1: MEM with 91k PAX to Europe. The nearest drive-able airport with NS service to Europe is BNA...212 miles east/3 hours. Likely some MEM pax bound for Europe make the trek to BNA but that is probably the exception.


I appreciate the OAG reference but I'll assert that MEM's competition for TATL traffic isn't BNA - it's the big variety of destinations available with a connection in ATL (and CLT). They cover most of the major origins/destinations in Europe (with some seasonality). BA xxx-LHR-MEM might be competitive (it would certainly cover more European airports) but Boyd may have more enthusiasm than me.


If IAG via BA or Air Lingus serviced MEM, it would be to compliment their existing service at MSY and BNA not compete with it, Some of the reports I have read is that international tourist spend about 3 nights in Memphis. This is almost always part of a more lenghty visit. Usually with one or the other two that is being mentioned with service already. Any service, my assumption here, would be less than daily and likely seasonal and priced similar to BNA nad MSY.Though some big Elvis events that draw internationals are in the winter so that could play into a year round service. Whether Memphis is the beginning or end point, 3x plus some code share with AA, which has built up Memphis to all of it's hubs sans LAX and JFK. Would offer easy one connection flights to BA metal. As filler for the non nonstop days. I figure LAX is still just a matter of time.
 
ILNFlyer
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Wed Jul 17, 2019 5:37 pm

DfwRevolution wrote:
Bluegrass60 wrote:
Traditional Demand Drivers Are Out. The key point is to understand that the new criteria for this expansion no longer gravitates around local population, but instead a range of economic dynamics. This includes the composition of the regional industrial base, the accessibility to a wide feed area (ground hubbing) and the nature of international investment accessible.


I disagree with Boyd on this point. The “traditional demand driver” has never been population, it has always been a “range of economic dynamics.” Certain markets like IAH, SFO, etc have always “punched above their (population) weight” for this exact reason. What is new today is that the combination of economic growth and highly efficient aircraft mean that more city pairs will clear the hurdle of viability.


I agree. While population is certainly a factor, it is this overall combination which drives demand and yield, the key factors for adding a route.
 
Bluegrass60
Topic Author
Posts: 348
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Wed Jul 17, 2019 6:00 pm

Traditional Demand Drivers Are Out. The key point is to understand that the new criteria for this expansion no longer gravitates around local population, but instead a range of economic dynamics. This includes the composition of the regional industrial base, the accessibility to a wide feed area (ground hubbing) and the nature of international investment accessible.

Actually ...you agree with Boyd. He is stating that traditional demand drivers (like local population) are not the only drivers....
 
uconn99
Posts: 371
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Wed Jul 17, 2019 8:37 pm

USAirALB wrote:
UPNYGuy wrote:
USAirALB wrote:

To be fair, they had a good 13 year run of service, and all Northeastern US cities that had B1900 service to YYZ eventually lost service.


BDL was upgauged to a dash when it was originally on a 1900. Beech dropped, dash comes in. If my memory serves me correctly (and it doesn’t always) BDL was one of the only 1900 transborder outstations that got upgauged though.

Correct. BDL-YYZ was always a Dash route (although I think it was usually supplemented by a single daily B1900 frequency) that was operated by Jazz. BDL-YUL was a B1900 route that was upguaged to a single Dash flight.

PVD also used to be a B1900 station that now sees a seasonal CRJ.


AC left the PVD market for a few years after dropping the B1900's I believe. The CRJ only started last summer and is seasonal 1X CRJ.
 
uconn99
Posts: 371
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Wed Jul 17, 2019 8:40 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
keesje wrote:
A re-instate of AMS-BDL (Hartford) would be great. DL would need to convert some A321s.


Successful firms and people learn from their mistakes. NW's BDL-AMS didn't even last 18 months. With the build up of LCC TATL service at BOS and NYC since then there's little reason to expect BDL-AMS to do substantially better today.

https://www.courant.com/business/hc-nor ... story.html


You have to remember BDL-AMS on NW was during a very difficult time with the economy and price of oil. The EI BDL-DUB flight is doing quite well, this year so far its performing around 10% better than 2018 in terms of pax. BDL is a large market and still see's a lot of bleed with people driving to BOS or NYC. If the airport can capture a bit more of the driving passengers and the ones connecting domestically to international, BDL could support another 1 or 2 flights to Europe with the correct plane size and route. Within an hour drive time of BDL you have close to 3 million people.
 
Jaxman16
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Re: Next wave of TATL per Boyd Group

Thu Jul 18, 2019 2:32 am

Midwestindy wrote:
ElroyJetson wrote:
JAX and RIC would be my top two picks as an A321 Neo LR can reach both cities, each has a strong Corporate presence, and both airports are growing rapidly in term of pax traffic. Colonial Williamsburg, Busch Gardens, Jamestown are all 40 miles from RIC. JAX has a lot of tourist options down the coast (i.e St Augustine, Daytona Beach, Space coast etc.).


Traffic isn't there for RIC, JAX probably has a case for TATL especially when taking into account bleed to MCO
Image


I agree with your statement. The bleed from JAX to MCO and even SFB (domestically) is substantial. 2hr drive is not bad to catch areasonably priced N/S flight to Europe. I bet the JAX numbers are uptoo since 2017 after the last 2 years of record breaking pax numbers.

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