MIflyer12
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Re: Alaska Airlines 2nd quarter financial results

Mon Jul 29, 2019 1:20 am

Sancho99504 wrote:
Could we see them switch to A321NEO, order more and change the Max 9 to Max 8?

The A320 burns less fuel, but the 737-800/Max 8 make that irrelevant by having at least 16 more pax while the A321 outperforms the 900/Max 9 every step of the way.


MAX 10s are likely to be the future, not more 321s. If you're a smallish carrier number of fleet types matters, and expiring leases give AS a no-cost opportunity to regain commonality.
 
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EA CO AS
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Re: Alaska Airlines 2nd quarter financial results

Mon Jul 29, 2019 1:41 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
Sancho99504 wrote:
Could we see them switch to A321NEO, order more and change the Max 9 to Max 8?

The A320 burns less fuel, but the 737-800/Max 8 make that irrelevant by having at least 16 more pax while the A321 outperforms the 900/Max 9 every step of the way.


MAX 10s are likely to be the future, not more 321s. If you're a smallish carrier number of fleet types matters, and expiring leases give AS a no-cost opportunity to regain commonality.


I don't know about that; AS really likes the A321NEO and the situation with the MAX has given them some interesting "What if?" perspective on the impact of being anchored to one manufacturer only. Imagine the MAX grounding taking place only after taking all their orders and options? Total disaster. Having some fleet diversity suddenly seems reasonable in some regard after this. I think the A320NEO orders get switched to A321NEOs, and some of the existing MAX 9 options might be converted to MAX 10s.

We'll see.
"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
 
Sancho99504
Posts: 642
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Re: Alaska Airlines 2nd quarter financial results

Mon Jul 29, 2019 3:37 pm

EA CO AS wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
Sancho99504 wrote:
Could we see them switch to A321NEO, order more and change the Max 9 to Max 8?

The A320 burns less fuel, but the 737-800/Max 8 make that irrelevant by having at least 16 more pax while the A321 outperforms the 900/Max 9 every step of the way.


MAX 10s are likely to be the future, not more 321s. If you're a smallish carrier number of fleet types matters, and expiring leases give AS a no-cost opportunity to regain commonality.


I don't know about that; AS really likes the A321NEO and the situation with the MAX has given them some interesting "What if?" perspective on the impact of being anchored to one manufacturer only. Imagine the MAX grounding taking place only after taking all their orders and options? Total disaster. Having some fleet diversity suddenly seems reasonable in some regard after this. I think the A320NEO orders get switched to A321NEOs, and some of the existing MAX 9 options might be converted to MAX 10s.

We'll see.

Unless AS can get the Max 10s at or below cost, the length of time AS will have the aircraft in the fleet still heavily favors A321NEO, especially since Airbus has an incentive to deal. Yes, they've shied away from giving airplanes away, but nothing will tickle them pinker than an airline that "proudly flies all Boeing" than getting them to ink a deal in their own name rather than flying an inherited fleet.

IMO, AS is probably in the best position of any airline on the planet right now when it comes to ordering aircraft.

Hell, it wouldn't surprise me if some A220-300 were thrown in at cost, with all the costs associated with bringing in a new type being born by Airbus.

What a time to be Brad Tilden right now.
kill 'em all and let God sort 'em out-USMC
 
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EA CO AS
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Re: Alaska Airlines 2nd quarter financial results

Mon Jul 29, 2019 3:45 pm

Sancho99504 wrote:
EA CO AS wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:

MAX 10s are likely to be the future, not more 321s. If you're a smallish carrier number of fleet types matters, and expiring leases give AS a no-cost opportunity to regain commonality.


I don't know about that; AS really likes the A321NEO and the situation with the MAX has given them some interesting "What if?" perspective on the impact of being anchored to one manufacturer only. Imagine the MAX grounding taking place only after taking all their orders and options? Total disaster. Having some fleet diversity suddenly seems reasonable in some regard after this. I think the A320NEO orders get switched to A321NEOs, and some of the existing MAX 9 options might be converted to MAX 10s.

We'll see.

Unless AS can get the Max 10s at or below cost, the length of time AS will have the aircraft in the fleet still heavily favors A321NEO, especially since Airbus has an incentive to deal. Yes, they've shied away from giving airplanes away, but nothing will tickle them pinker than an airline that "proudly flies all Boeing" than getting them to ink a deal in their own name rather than flying an inherited fleet.

IMO, AS is probably in the best position of any airline on the planet right now when it comes to ordering aircraft.

Hell, it wouldn't surprise me if some A220-300 were thrown in at cost, with all the costs associated with bringing in a new type being born by Airbus.

What a time to be Brad Tilden right now.


If Airbus were to do something like 30 firm and 30 options on the A321NEO plus 20 firm and 20 options for A220s at cost, plus the incentives you speak of, I wouldn't be surprised to see AS jump all over that.
"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
 
vadodara
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Re: Alaska Airlines 2nd quarter financial results

Mon Jul 29, 2019 6:48 pm

ASFlyer wrote:
Management has said that they like the E175's because they are able to move in to new markets that they may not have otherwise. Once they've had a chance to mature and grow they will move them to mainline if they're able. Some perfect examples are SEA-OMA/MKE/SBA SAN-AUS/MSP/SJC/SMF. There are a number of markets that started on the Ejets and moved over to Boeing/Airbus when they became established. Passengers really seem to like them. I keep waiting for them to move SEA-OKC/ICT over to mainline as they seem to do pretty well on the Embraer - but possibly Boeing/Airbus are too much airplane for those markets?


I concur; it seems to have helped expand SEA into a mega-hub.

I was wondering more from the perspective of the VX acquisition; time to roll the dice at LA/SFO areas?
 
gmcc
Posts: 258
Joined: Tue Apr 25, 2006 3:54 am

Re: Alaska Airlines 2nd quarter financial results

Mon Jul 29, 2019 7:54 pm

vadodara wrote:
ASFlyer wrote:
Management has said that they like the E175's because they are able to move in to new markets that they may not have otherwise. Once they've had a chance to mature and grow they will move them to mainline if they're able. Some perfect examples are SEA-OMA/MKE/SBA SAN-AUS/MSP/SJC/SMF. There are a number of markets that started on the Ejets and moved over to Boeing/Airbus when they became established. Passengers really seem to like them. I keep waiting for them to move SEA-OKC/ICT over to mainline as they seem to do pretty well on the Embraer - but possibly Boeing/Airbus are too much airplane for those markets?


I concur; it seems to have helped expand SEA into a mega-hub.

I was wondering more from the perspective of the VX acquisition; time to roll the dice at LA/SFO areas?


I think we will need to be a little patience with the expansion at SFO and even more so with LAX. I wouldn't expect to see much at SFO until AA moves into T1 in 2020 allowing AS to move all there operations into one terminal and possible get some more preferred gates usage. AS and LAWA just got around to unifying the VX/AS lease to T6 and included language about reguageing gates and an as yet to be defined terminal improvement project that included at least a partial rebuild of the terminal. So at LAX there are a lot of moving parts that will probably mean small incremental steps until it all shakes out.
 
USAirKid
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Re: Alaska Airlines 2nd quarter financial results

Wed Jul 31, 2019 5:08 am

EA CO AS wrote:
Sancho99504 wrote:
EA CO AS wrote:

I don't know about that; AS really likes the A321NEO and the situation with the MAX has given them some interesting "What if?" perspective on the impact of being anchored to one manufacturer only. Imagine the MAX grounding taking place only after taking all their orders and options? Total disaster. Having some fleet diversity suddenly seems reasonable in some regard after this. I think the A320NEO orders get switched to A321NEOs, and some of the existing MAX 9 options might be converted to MAX 10s.

We'll see.

Unless AS can get the Max 10s at or below cost, the length of time AS will have the aircraft in the fleet still heavily favors A321NEO, especially since Airbus has an incentive to deal. Yes, they've shied away from giving airplanes away, but nothing will tickle them pinker than an airline that "proudly flies all Boeing" than getting them to ink a deal in their own name rather than flying an inherited fleet.

IMO, AS is probably in the best position of any airline on the planet right now when it comes to ordering aircraft.

Hell, it wouldn't surprise me if some A220-300 were thrown in at cost, with all the costs associated with bringing in a new type being born by Airbus.

What a time to be Brad Tilden right now.


If Airbus were to do something like 30 firm and 30 options on the A321NEO plus 20 firm and 20 options for A220s at cost, plus the incentives you speak of, I wouldn't be surprised to see AS jump all over that.




EACOAS, I'm curious to your opinion that if Air Group got A220s, would they put them with AS or QX? AFAIK, AS pilots don't have a scope clause, so Air Group management could choose where to put them..
 
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452QX
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Re: Alaska Airlines 2nd quarter financial results

Wed Jul 31, 2019 7:09 am

USAirKid wrote:
EA CO AS wrote:
Sancho99504 wrote:
Unless AS can get the Max 10s at or below cost, the length of time AS will have the aircraft in the fleet still heavily favors A321NEO, especially since Airbus has an incentive to deal. Yes, they've shied away from giving airplanes away, but nothing will tickle them pinker than an airline that "proudly flies all Boeing" than getting them to ink a deal in their own name rather than flying an inherited fleet.

IMO, AS is probably in the best position of any airline on the planet right now when it comes to ordering aircraft.

Hell, it wouldn't surprise me if some A220-300 were thrown in at cost, with all the costs associated with bringing in a new type being born by Airbus.

What a time to be Brad Tilden right now.


If Airbus were to do something like 30 firm and 30 options on the A321NEO plus 20 firm and 20 options for A220s at cost, plus the incentives you speak of, I wouldn't be surprised to see AS jump all over that.




EACOAS, I'm curious to your opinion that if Air Group got A220s, would they put them with AS or QX? AFAIK, AS pilots don't have a scope clause, so Air Group management could choose where to put them..


QX is ‘self-regulated’ to 76 seats (the wording changes from person to person), any 100+ seat jet would end up flying mainline. In addition, the 223 is already punching above its weight towards the 737-700 range, as well as rival Delta already using the 220 for mainline service

Ultimately I’ve heard respectable people both say it is and isn’t a scope clause, but Horizon is still a regional and a plane that size would none the less end up flying mainline more likely than not, even if I wish it were otherwise
 
Alias1024
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Re: Alaska Airlines 2nd quarter financial results

Wed Jul 31, 2019 1:33 pm

gmcc wrote:

I think we will need to be a little patience with the expansion at SFO and even more so with LAX. I wouldn't expect to see much at SFO until AA moves into T1 in 2020 allowing AS to move all there operations into one terminal and possible get some more preferred gates usage.


I thought when AA moves to T1, DL will be relocated to T2 so SFO can rebuild their pier. Doesn’t seem like much space would be freed for AS until 40-48 are reopened and DL moves back there.
It is a mistake to think you can solve any major problems with just potatoes.
 
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Polot
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Re: Alaska Airlines 2nd quarter financial results

Wed Jul 31, 2019 1:50 pm

452QX wrote:
USAirKid wrote:
EA CO AS wrote:

If Airbus were to do something like 30 firm and 30 options on the A321NEO plus 20 firm and 20 options for A220s at cost, plus the incentives you speak of, I wouldn't be surprised to see AS jump all over that.




EACOAS, I'm curious to your opinion that if Air Group got A220s, would they put them with AS or QX? AFAIK, AS pilots don't have a scope clause, so Air Group management could choose where to put them..


QX is ‘self-regulated’ to 76 seats (the wording changes from person to person), any 100+ seat jet would end up flying mainline. In addition, the 223 is already punching above its weight towards the 737-700 range, as well as rival Delta already using the 220 for mainline service

Ultimately I’ve heard respectable people both say it is and isn’t a scope clause, but Horizon is still a regional and a plane that size would none the less end up flying mainline more likely than not, even if I wish it were otherwise

Sticking A220s at QX would be a quick way to suddenly have a scope clause with likely tighter fleet restrictions than what AS has right now, so yeah if the group was to order them AS would be flying the planes.
 
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EA CO AS
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Re: Alaska Airlines 2nd quarter financial results

Thu Aug 01, 2019 7:45 am

USAirKid wrote:
EACOAS, I'm curious to your opinion that if Air Group got A220s, would they put them with AS or QX? AFAIK, AS pilots don't have a scope clause, so Air Group management could choose where to put them..


If it were ever on the property, I'd definitely see that being a mainline aircraft.
"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
 
wnflyguy
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Re: Alaska Airlines 2nd quarter financial results

Thu Aug 01, 2019 5:06 pm

hiflyeras wrote:
Growth is somewhat dependant on 737MAX deliveries...all NG aircraft orders have been completed so from here out it's the 7M9 with 37 on order.


Can they increase Horizon E175 fleet size to free up more main line for new markets in the Midwest and Eastern seaboard?

Flyguy
my post are my opinion only and not those of southwest airlines and or airtran airlines.
 
alasizon
Posts: 1944
Joined: Sat Apr 28, 2007 8:57 pm

Re: Alaska Airlines 2nd quarter financial results

Thu Aug 01, 2019 5:15 pm

wnflyguy wrote:
hiflyeras wrote:
Growth is somewhat dependant on 737MAX deliveries...all NG aircraft orders have been completed so from here out it's the 7M9 with 37 on order.


Can they increase Horizon E175 fleet size to free up more main line for new markets in the Midwest and Eastern seaboard?

Flyguy


Increasing the number of 175s doesn't do much for you when there are still gate issues at play in SEA. Plus it comes at a roughly two to one replacement rate which would not be good for some markets on the revenue management front.
Manager on Duty & Tower Planner
 
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diverdave
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Re: Alaska Airlines 2nd quarter financial results

Thu Aug 01, 2019 5:37 pm

vadodara wrote:
I concur; it seems to have helped expand SEA into a mega-hub.


Seattle airport has lots of good features, but it is not a mega-hub by any stretch. It is only the 8th largest in the USA.
 
UALifer
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Re: Alaska Airlines 2nd quarter financial results

Thu Aug 01, 2019 7:08 pm

Alias1024 wrote:
gmcc wrote:

I think we will need to be a little patience with the expansion at SFO and even more so with LAX. I wouldn't expect to see much at SFO until AA moves into T1 in 2020 allowing AS to move all there operations into one terminal and possible get some more preferred gates usage.


I thought when AA moves to T1, DL will be relocated to T2 so SFO can rebuild their pier. Doesn’t seem like much space would be freed for AS until 40-48 are reopened and DL moves back there.


The DL C concourse is not being rebuilt, at least not anytime soon. But UA will be entitled to those T2 gates just as much (if not more so) than Alaska. So don’t expect too much gate growth (and subsequent capacity growth) from Alaska just yet. SFO gates are given out based on carriers’ current seat share of the airport, so expect UA to get at least half of any gates available for allocation in T2.
 
alasizon
Posts: 1944
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Re: Alaska Airlines 2nd quarter financial results

Thu Aug 01, 2019 7:10 pm

diverdave wrote:
vadodara wrote:
I concur; it seems to have helped expand SEA into a mega-hub.


Seattle airport has lots of good features, but it is not a mega-hub by any stretch. It is only the 8th largest in the USA.


Looking at Mainline #s (because BTS doesn't break down the regionals by operating partner), it is the seventh largest Mainline hub in the country based on pax carried but yet many on this board would consider EWR, SFO, ORD & DEN mega-hubs for their carriers that fall behind on this list.

ATL (DL Only) - 67 million passengers
DFW (AA Only) - 39 million passengers
CLT (AA Only) - 25 million passengers
ORD (UA Only) - 21 million passengers
MDW (WN Only) - 19 million passengers
DEN (UA Only) - 18 million passengers
SEA (AS Only) - 18 million passengers
MSP (DL Only) - 18 million passengers
DEN (WN Only) - 18 million passengers
LAS (WN Only) - 17 million passengers
ORD (AA Only) - 17 million passengers
SFO (UA Only) - 17 million passengers
EWR (UA Only) - 16 million passengers
MIA (AA Only) - 14 million passengers
PHX (AA Only) - 15 million passengers
DTW (DL Only) - 15 million passengers
LAX (AA Only) - 12 million passengers
LAX (DL Only) - 11 million passengers

Sure it doesn't include Regional numbers that are essential to a hub but it gives you an idea of how big the operation for AS actually is.
Manager on Duty & Tower Planner

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