Jean Leloup wrote:

2. I was under the impression that WS might be building a few of its own lounges now, to coincide with the addition of 'real' business class. Is this correct, and if so, where are lounges being built? I believe WS is now 'operating', loosely speaking, the Chinook Lounge at YYC, but I'm very much hoping that's just a temporary situation - for selfish reasons.

JL

ty

jimbo737 wrote:

This is part of the reason WS is being taken private. Having to deal with misleading news stories, often written by, um, shall we say, “reporters” often happy to have “stories” handed to them on a silver platter from, er, dubious and self-interested sources, makes running a public company, with a strategic vision longer than the next 90 days, very difficult.

WS7M8 wrote:

Hoping this thread can be a permanent depository of information regarding WestJet, Canada's 2nd leading airline, with a promising future.

1. Last week they announced an unexpected 2Q 2019 profit. A nice turnaround from the turmoil of last year, and especially with the Max situation, which has grounded 13 of their aircraft. The rest of their fleet has been extraordinarily busy.

https://ca.reuters.com/article/business ... L2PF-OCABS

2. In parallel with their 2Q profit, they announced their winter 2019-2020 schedule

https://ca.travelpulse.com/news/airline ... 92020.html

As the ultimate WestJet fan, I pulled a couple interesting things out of that:

Calgary-CDG B787 seasonal service is starting March 12th. This year it started in late May. Here's guessing that route exceeded expectations. On the other hand, DUB will likely be restarting in late May or June of 2020, we'll have to wait for the precise dates when the schedule for next year is announced later this year.

B787s are slowly moving to YYZ! It will be taking over YYZ-LGW in the late fall, when seasonal service YYC - CDG/DUB ends.

Ottawa-Ft Myers is increasing to twice weekly. I'm kind of bittersweet on this. The last few years, WS has been getting away from non-hub flying, dropping a lot of Florida flying from YOW, YUL, and some Atlantic Canadian cities. There are some definite benefits to funneling traffic through YYZ, but I think they realize they might have overplayed their hand. A lot of Canadians do not like connecting through YYZ. Throw in any sort of weather / ATC / gate availability / deicing issue, and a lot of people misconnect (a problem hardly unique to them - happens a lot to AC at T1 also). People like to be able to go directly from their city to the sun. That explains so much of Sunwing's growth the last 15 years. I think we'll gradually see WS return to more southern non-hub flying from Eastern Canada. YOW - RSW is an easy one. FLL / MCO from YOW, not to mention those two RSW from YUL will also be coming back. If Air Canada Rouge can do 5-6 B767s YUL-FLL on a regular basis, there is no reason why WS can't fit in a 737-800 or two. Even if they are a poor third behind AC and TS, these are markets they should be in.

3. I always wish those airline schedule announcements included what isn't coming back!

4. The Onex acquisition of WestJet keeps on moving along.....

https://business.financialpost.com/tran ... -onex-corp

More than 92% of shareholders voted in favour of it. Different articles I read on the subject cited as many as five other regulatory or other hops they'll have to go through. WS is projecting the buyout to be done by late 2019.

Jean Leloup wrote:

You started this thread pretty late in the day to get much Canadian interest before it slips down the page, but I'll chip in.

I am an AC guy so I don't follow WS too closely, but being Alberta-based, I am of course affected by everything they do! I don't have much insight, but do have a couple of questions:

1. Are any changes to the Westjet Link operations coming soon? Other than a press release puff piece celebrating the 1 year anniversary of the service last month, I couldn't find any info about changes to this operation. Would love to see it expand beyond the current cities, but no idea whether it's doing well enough for that to be the case. As I recall, the advent of Westjet Link may have caused an actual downgrade in service for Prince George (replacing some other flights), but it's been a godsend to Lethbridge (my home airport), Medicine Hat, Cranbrook, and Lloydminster, as it has broken the AC monopoly.

2. I was under the impression that WS might be building a few of its own lounges now, to coincide with the addition of 'real' business class. Is this correct, and if so, where are lounges being built? I believe WS is now 'operating', loosely speaking, the Chinook Lounge at YYC, but I'm very much hoping that's just a temporary situation - for selfish reasons.

3. Surely, the roll-out of 'new' business class on the 737's of all stripes must be delayed due to the nil slack in the current schedule. Are they at least able to get the new cabins put into the MAX's that are being built but not placed in service? And are there still a few NG frames getting the new seats when they are in for heavy maintenance that can't be deferred in the current crunch?

JL

SXDFC wrote:

Anyone know when they will be repainting their current 737s in the new livery?

SXDFC wrote:

Anyone know when they will be repainting their current 737s in the new livery?

jimbo737 wrote:

You can safely assume the privatized WS will continue to chase profit and not market share.

jimbo737 wrote:

WJ operated YUL to Florida routes with loads in the low 90’s and cancelled them.

It’s no different than Alaska running 93% on YVR - LAX a few years ago and cancelling the route.

If it isn’t profitable, what’s the point? Low yield, point burning routes for Aeroplan junkies.

When the yields improve, which is easy to ascertain with Form 41 data, others will return to the market.

Until then, there are more lucrative opportunities to pursue.

Skywatcher wrote:

Regarding non-YYZ to Florida eastern Canada traffic I don't think WestJet can effectively compete with Sunwing/Rouge/Transat on cost I suppose. They are all profitable so I'm wondering where Westjet's "higher profit opportunities" are? I thought WestJet was the lower CASM carrier? I'm confused.

cumulushumilis wrote:

In other news, 737-700 C-FIWS after 18 years of service finds itself sitting in GYR most likely to be parted out after 62 775 hours and 28852 flights. She’s lived a good life, happy retirement!

jimbo737 wrote:

ty

I’m not exactly sure why WS’s 2Q 2019 numbers were a “surprise”.

How quickly people forget that 2Q 2018 was wiped out by the defacto pilots strike that decimated last minute / high yield bookings for about 6 weeks and messed up overall bookings well into Q3.

WS had net earnings of $46m in 3Q 2018, $29.1m in 4Q 2018 and $45.6m in 1Q 2019.

Prior to 2Q 2018, WS had a long and enviable string of net profitable quarters, even whilst taking on multiple larger strategic initiatives simultaneously.

The misleading headlines would have people think WJ has been unprofitable for quite some time when in fact, it was a defacto strike-driven single quarter anomaly.

This is part of the reason WS is being taken private. Having to deal with misleading news stories, often written by, um, shall we say, “reporters” often happy to have “stories” handed to them on a silver platter from, er, dubious and self-interested sources, makes running a public company, with a strategic vision longer than the next 90 days, very difficult.

n471wn wrote:

cumulushumilis wrote:

In other news, 737-700 C-FIWS after 18 years of service finds itself sitting in GYR most likely to be parted out after 62 775 hours and 28852 flights. She’s lived a good life, happy retirement!

She is not being parted out but going to United Airlines! Thought you knew.

cumulushumilis wrote:

n471wn wrote:

cumulushumilis wrote:

In other news, 737-700 C-FIWS after 18 years of service finds itself sitting in GYR most likely to be parted out after 62 775 hours and 28852 flights. She’s lived a good life, happy retirement!

She is not being parted out but going to United Airlines! Thought you knew.

Did not know that. Up until a few months ago the plan was to part her out. Her return to GECAS has been delayed a couple of months as well, so I’m going off of less than perfect information. I wonder if she was returned with the airstairs that were pulled out years ago?

Whiteguy wrote:

cumulushumilis wrote:

n471wn wrote:

She is not being parted out but going to United Airlines! Thought you knew.

Did not know that. Up until a few months ago the plan was to part her out. Her return to GECAS has been delayed a couple of months as well, so I’m going off of less than perfect information. I wonder if she was returned with the airstairs that were pulled out years ago?

It’s done. Grounded as of midnight on the 31st, it will be parted out.

ac7e7 wrote:

jimbo737 wrote:

ty

I’m not exactly sure why WS’s 2Q 2019 numbers were a “surprise”.

How quickly people forget that 2Q 2018 was wiped out by the defacto pilots strike that decimated last minute / high yield bookings for about 6 weeks and messed up overall bookings well into Q3.

WS had net earnings of $46m in 3Q 2018, $29.1m in 4Q 2018 and $45.6m in 1Q 2019.

Prior to 2Q 2018, WS had a long and enviable string of net profitable quarters, even whilst taking on multiple larger strategic initiatives simultaneously.

The misleading headlines would have people think WJ has been unprofitable for quite some time when in fact, it was a defacto strike-driven single quarter anomaly.

This is part of the reason WS is being taken private. Having to deal with misleading news stories, often written by, um, shall we say, “reporters” often happy to have “stories” handed to them on a silver platter from, er, dubious and self-interested sources, makes running a public company, with a strategic vision longer than the next 90 days, very difficult.

Give me a break. WS is being taken private by Onex because WS is turning into a basket case, and they see an opportunity . WS is a disorganized mess with no focus. If anyone believes Onex is buying WS and will not be making any significant changes as Mr. Sims has been preaching, you are living in a dream world.

The idea that they are being taken private because some reporters write inaccurate stories is ridiculous. AC is trashed by the media and the public almost every day. Does AC management care? No, they stay focused on the task at hand, and produce results for investors.

WS is a cocky organization, and sat back and ignored their largest competitor while AC cut costs and focused their business. Today, WS doesn’t know how to deal with a strong competitor. They are completely disorganized, and are going in all directions trying to catch up with AC. Onex recognized this, and decided to invest. Onex will be kicking some butts here in Calgary in short order.

Oh, and in a few years when WS is spun back into a traded company, they will have to deal once again with those pesky analysts and their 90-day outlooks.

n471wn wrote:

[threeid][/threeid]

Whiteguy wrote:

cumulushumilis wrote:

Did not know that. Up until a few months ago the plan was to part her out. Her return to GECAS has been delayed a couple of months as well, so I’m going off of less than perfect information. I wonder if she was returned with the airstairs that were pulled out years ago?

It’s done. Grounded as of midnight on the 31st, it will be parted out.

This aircraft is going to United Airlines—no indication from them that it is for parts

jimbo737 wrote:

And if WS was such a basket case, even though it produced higher margins than AC last winter, please enlighten us as to why GS would offer shareholders a $10 premium over the share price at the time?

The bottomline is I could care less. I’ll take the $31, (or $30 and change), pocket it and roll a portion of it it into my 4th startup, and continue to distance myself from the Canadian market and it’s 37m people.

There are far, far bigger fish to fry elsewhere.

jimbo737 wrote:

CB said from day 1 that the moment the unions took hold at WS, he’d be gone.

Anyone who knows the inside story could have easily predicted this event.

YYZatcboy wrote:

n471wn wrote:

[threeid][/threeid]

Whiteguy wrote:

It’s done. Grounded as of midnight on the 31st, it will be parted out.

This aircraft is going to United Airlines—no indication from them that it is for parts

The aircraft is being scrapped.

https://twitter.com/WestJet/status/1156988224037937152

Other sources are not public.

jimbo737 wrote:

I will defer to all the various experts out there, all of whom have intimate, insider knowledge of everything that’s ever occurred in the business in Canada.

I don’t think you’ll find too many unhappy WJ shareholders out there.

It’s been a heck of a run, for some from 25 cents to over $104. Anyone who was at WS prior to the 1999 ipo was likely buying shares for as little as $1.50 a pop, and post IPO at half the market value.

And for some, it may be an opportunity to do it all over again elsewhere in the world.

767333ER wrote:

jimbo737 wrote:

I will defer to all the various experts out there, all of whom have intimate, insider knowledge of everything that’s ever occurred in the business in Canada.

I don’t think you’ll find too many unhappy WJ shareholders out there.

It’s been a heck of a run, for some from 25 cents to over $104. Anyone who was at WS prior to the 1999 ipo was likely buying shares for as little as $1.50 a pop, and post IPO at half the market value.

And for some, it may be an opportunity to do it all over again elsewhere in the world.

How about many of the unhappy employees, many of them are shareholders, right.?

jimbo737 wrote:

767333ER wrote:

jimbo737 wrote:

I will defer to all the various experts out there, all of whom have intimate, insider knowledge of everything that’s ever occurred in the business in Canada.

I don’t think you’ll find too many unhappy WJ shareholders out there.

It’s been a heck of a run, for some from 25 cents to over $104. Anyone who was at WS prior to the 1999 ipo was likely buying shares for as little as $1.50 a pop, and post IPO at half the market value.

And for some, it may be an opportunity to do it all over again elsewhere in the world.

How about many of the unhappy employees, many of them are shareholders, right.?

Roughly 80% of WS employees are shareholders.

They’ve been able to buy shares at 50% off since day 1.

There are no shortage of WS employees who have a cost base of around $10-$12 and will sell at $31, and pay a low capital gains tax on that nice little windfall.

The misery is palpable as I sit in full 320 seat Dreamliner winging my way across the skies.....

jimbo737 wrote:

Today at 15:06Z, WestJet’s first 737 NG, A/C 001 C-FIWS, touched down in Goodyear Arizona. This will be the last flight for this aircraft, as it is scheduled to be parted out.

The first flight was from YYC to YEG on May 26th, 2001. Since that first flight, the aircraft has had:

• 28,852 flights
• 62,775:37 hours in the sky
• 472 tire changes
• 4,947 daily Checks
• 11 engine changes
• 4 landing gear changes
• 12 APU changes
• Averaged over 4.3 flights a day for 6640 days

The last revenue was YYJ-YYC where it landed at 01:25Z 31/07/2019 in YYC.

cumulushumilis wrote:

jimbo737 wrote:

Today at 15:06Z, WestJet’s first 737 NG, A/C 001 C-FIWS, touched down in Goodyear Arizona. This will be the last flight for this aircraft, as it is scheduled to be parted out.

The first flight was from YYC to YEG on May 26th, 2001. Since that first flight, the aircraft has had:

• 28,852 flights
• 62,775:37 hours in the sky
• 472 tire changes
• 4,947 daily Checks
• 11 engine changes
• 4 landing gear changes
• 12 APU changes
• Averaged over 4.3 flights a day for 6640 days

The last revenue was YYJ-YYC where it landed at 01:25Z 31/07/2019 in YYC.

You’re late to the tail 001 party man.

Did you happen miss the entire discussion that was already happening above? 4 people say it’s to be parted out and one says it’s been sold to United. That’s where we are at in this discussion.

cumulushumilis wrote:

jimbo737 wrote:

Today at 15:06Z, WestJet’s first 737 NG, A/C 001 C-FIWS, touched down in Goodyear Arizona. This will be the last flight for this aircraft, as it is scheduled to be parted out.

The first flight was from YYC to YEG on May 26th, 2001. Since that first flight, the aircraft has had:

• 28,852 flights
• 62,775:37 hours in the sky
• 472 tire changes
• 4,947 daily Checks
• 11 engine changes
• 4 landing gear changes
• 12 APU changes
• Averaged over 4.3 flights a day for 6640 days

The last revenue was YYJ-YYC where it landed at 01:25Z 31/07/2019 in YYC.

Your late to the tail 001 party man.

Did you happen miss the entire discussion that was already happening above? 4 people say it’s to be parted out and one says it’s been sold to United. That’s where we are at in this discussion.

YYZatcboy wrote:

The aircraft is being scrapped.

https://twitter.com/WestJet/status/1156988224037937152

Other sources are not public.

Thenoflyzone wrote:

18 years isn't a long time for a 737NG. Hence why the United move makes sense. The LOV (limit of validity) for a 737NG is 100,000 cycles and/or 125,000 hours.

Page 10.

Interesting that WS is getting rid of this bird so "early", so to speak, especially with the MAX grounding still in progress. You would think they would keep all the NG's in house until the MAX issue is resolved, especially one that still has plenty of life left in her.

Wonder what is the real cause of her early exit from the fleet. A hangar queen maybe, or an upcoming expensive D check?

YYZatcboy wrote:

The aircraft is being scrapped.

https://twitter.com/WestJet/status/1156988224037937152

Other sources are not public.

This one is, and it says the plane is going to United, which would make sense, as C-FIWS has plenty of life left in her.

https://www.skyliner-aviation.de/regdb. ... av4&page=3

767333ER wrote:

Thenoflyzone wrote:

18 years isn't a long time for a 737NG. Hence why the United move makes sense. The LOV (limit of validity) for a 737NG is 100,000 cycles and/or 125,000 hours.

Page 10.

Interesting that WS is getting rid of this bird so "early", so to speak, especially with the MAX grounding still in progress. You would think they would keep all the NG's in house until the MAX issue is resolved, especially one that still has plenty of life left in her.

Wonder what is the real cause of her early exit from the fleet. A hangar queen maybe, or an upcoming expensive D check?

YYZatcboy wrote:

The aircraft is being scrapped.

https://twitter.com/WestJet/status/1156988224037937152

Other sources are not public.

..and to think that some airlines are still flying the 733s which are 28yrs old

This one is, and it says the plane is going to United, which would make sense, as C-FIWS has plenty of life left in her.

https://www.skyliner-aviation.de/regdb. ... av4&page=3

The thing with this one is it’s a -700 which is an inefficient and worthless commodity to be used as a plane especially at its age (I’ll get to that in a moment), but for parts it can be worth quite a lot still. I don’t pretend to know what it’s future will be and if it’s going to United they seem to pretend to like the -700 a lot so I wouldn’t be surprised to see them use it, but all the same I think it would make more sense to part it out and support their much better newer -800s and -900ERs with it.

Now the thing that I see that it is nearly 20 years old and generally speaking it could have about 10 years of life left in it, but I’ve noticed that 737NGs often aren’t lasting much past 20 years as American for example wants rid of their older 738s, of course not an option at the moment. I believe it may have to do with that supposed fuselage joining corrosion people used to go on about. They used to say they’d find level 2 corrosion in the fuselages of 737NGs only 8 years old or so and while it was a fixable problem it would become very costly over time to the point where it’s just not worth it anymore.

Or they have heavy MX coming up they don’t want to do which is usually when an old plane retires unless it hits its certified hours or cycles which is basically when airlines like Air Canada have been retiring A320s. It’s interesting to see older 737NGs now that there are some not lasting as long.

Jean Leloup wrote:

You started this thread pretty late in the day to get much Canadian interest before it slips down the page, but I'll chip in.

I am an AC guy so I don't follow WS too closely, but being Alberta-based, I am of course affected by everything they do! I don't have much insight, but do have a couple of questions:

1. Are any changes to the Westjet Link operations coming soon? Other than a press release puff piece celebrating the 1 year anniversary of the service last month, I couldn't find any info about changes to this operation. Would love to see it expand beyond the current cities, but no idea whether it's doing well enough for that to be the case. As I recall, the advent of Westjet Link may have caused an actual downgrade in service for Prince George (replacing some other flights), but it's been a godsend to Lethbridge (my home airport), Medicine Hat, Cranbrook, and Lloydminster, as it has broken the AC monopoly.

WS7M8 wrote:

Jean Leloup wrote:

You started this thread pretty late in the day to get much Canadian interest before it slips down the page, but I'll chip in.

I am an AC guy so I don't follow WS too closely, but being Alberta-based, I am of course affected by everything they do! I don't have much insight, but do have a couple of questions:

1. Are any changes to the Westjet Link operations coming soon? Other than a press release puff piece celebrating the 1 year anniversary of the service last month, I couldn't find any info about changes to this operation. Would love to see it expand beyond the current cities, but no idea whether it's doing well enough for that to be the case. As I recall, the advent of Westjet Link may have caused an actual downgrade in service for Prince George (replacing some other flights), but it's been a godsend to Lethbridge (my home airport), Medicine Hat, Cranbrook, and Lloydminster, as it has broken the AC monopoly.

It is my impression that the WestJet Link product has been quite successful. One of WestJet's primary goals when they created WS Encore was to generate incremental passenger growth for connecting flights. To that effect, they have greatly increased their reach now, with 47 Q400s criss-crossing Canada on a daily basis, feeding their network. And the success of Encore is reflected in their growing widebody program.

As Encore matures, they also came across the realization that sometimes a Q400 is too much airplane for certain routes. Hence Link, and the Pacific Coastal subcontract. Their are five current Link destination cities: Cranbrook, Lethbridge, Lloydminster, Medicine Hat and Prince George (in addition to Calgary, where they all hub out of). The first four are places where a Q400 would have been too much capacity. Being from Alberta myself, I've been hearing rumours about WestJet going to Lethbridge or Medicine Hat for a long, long time. When Encore was created, I figured they surely would be among the inital destinations. Bottom lines is that WestJet knows their market, and the Link product (34 seat Saab) is the right amount of capacity, for now. I'll be interested to watch as these destinations have been on line now for over a year for any capacity tweaks. Will some of them get additional daily flights, or perhaps be upgauged to an Encore Q400. That will be fascinating to watch.

Prince George (YXS) is a whole different animal. WS has served it for years going back to their 737-200 days. When Encore was launched, it was among the first destinations to be handed to them. However here's guessing that they were not successful on the YYC-YXS segment. Possibly it was because of many BC resource projects being shelved, possibly it was because of the five year slowdown in the AB economy, but Link allows them to keep feed from Prince George to Calgary. For now a Link Saab keeps them in that market, and allows them to reallocate the Encore Q400 to more profitable flying. Note they are maintaining service on Encore from YVR-YXS.

My WestJet Link predictions is as follows. Look for the Link product to be selectively rolled out across the country, beginning with Western Canada. Since Pacific Coastal Airlines, their Link subcontractor, is based in Vancouver, and WJ has a significant YVR hub, I think we'll see a natural progression of Link to the BC / YVR market within the next year or two. Pacific Coastal's operation out of YVR is based at the south terminal (not the main pax terminal, but a smaller one on the south side of the airport). My guess is the reason it hasn't happened yet is twofold. The first is that Pacific Coastal's BC regional network is profitable as they trace their routes back to the 1960s, and the second is that their BC flying is too Beech 1900 centric.

Map of Pacific Coastal Airlines network:
https://www.pacificcoastal.com/wp-conte ... r-2018.pdf

Hypothetically, if Pacific Coastal would make a commitment to get more Saab 340Bs (which can be had on very affordable leases) and move their operation to the main terminal (where there is plenty of space), we would see a formalized WestJet Link operation for BC. I don't think every city on the current map would be there as I don't think WestJet wants to get into Beech 1900 flying, but I think most could support Saab 340 service oriented towards WestJet connections.

Canada sometimes surprises me with the sheer amount of independent regional air carriers. Pacific Coastal certainly has a lot to offer WestJet in terms of the BC market. Their regional network is doubtlessly feeling some pressure from Encore's service. While they won't quite be like Hawkair, a YVR - Terrace operator who went bankrupt within three years of Encore opening the route, I think their longer term future is under the WestJet Link umbrella, vs as an independent.

For the longer-term future of WestJet Link, once feed is established and secured in Western Canada, I project something similar to show up in YYZ. There are too many markets in Ontario / Quebec and even Atlantic Canada that WestJet could get into if they had a 30-50 seat aircraft partner. Sudbury, North Bay, Timmins, Windsor, Kingston, Sault St Marie, supplemental service to YXU, possible new destinations like Montreal-St Hubert or Sherbrooke, etc....