jimbo737
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Re: The WestJet Thread

Mon Aug 12, 2019 3:23 pm

WS7M8 wrote:
A few additional thoughts:

Pacific Coastal may feel some reluctance to partner with WJ on a Link product for BC because of how it would cannibalize their existing operation, which is largely geared to intra-BC travel. Here's saying they could spin off some of their Beech 1900 flying to their Wilderness Seaplanes Division. But I'm guessing they are doing their due diligence comparing existing data to what WJ feed would add to the network. Or the convenience of the South Terminal at YVR to the added benefit of WS passengers... They couldn't run their existing BC flying as a stand-alone plus be a WJ partner on a nearly-identical operation.

Finally, part of the reason I believe WJ has transitioned to Link-sized aircraft is to help them flex their muscle in Calgary. Up until quite recently, AC offered more seats / day out of YYC, despite the fact WJ was the home town airline. AC hardly described YYC as a hub....more as a "focus city." Since Link was added, AC terminated the regional Air Georgian Calgary B1900 contract, upgauged some of those routes (Medicine Hat, Lethbridge) to Jazz DHC-8s, dropped other cities (Red Deer - a non-Link city roughly equidistant between YYC and YEG), not competed in others Link cities (Lloydminster - did Georgian they used to go there?), and not seen the necessity to compete in other markets (Prince George, Cranbrook) as you can easily connect to those places on AC through YVR.

There are four main hubs where AC and WJ are battling in Canada. In three of them (YYZ, YUL, YVR), AC is the top dog. YYC is the closest fight between the two. Link is another tool for WJ to collect as many passengers as they can through Calgary, to enable the growth of the hub (eg widebody & expanded B737 + Encore flying). They are making slow but steady progress. There are numerous city pairs through YYC where you connection would be a Link Saab to say an Encore Q400, vs the old days when it was just one WS B737 to another WS B737. Will be really interesting to watch the next few years unfold.


Solid analysis.
 
robsaw
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Re: The WestJet Thread

Mon Aug 12, 2019 4:27 pm

jimbo737 wrote:
Or perhaps the reason WS’s operating margin was nearly double that of AC’s last winter was that WS focused on chasing profit, not market share.


I don't think either AC or WS "focus" on market share OVER profit. However, profit and market share aren't mutualy exclusive, especially when market share dominance can be used to improve profit.

And, over the last full year, the stat's aren't that different and digging in further into the financials would seem to indicate that AC has been managing growth AND generating profit more efficiently than WS:

% increase 2018 over 2017:

WS:
passengers: +5.6%
ASM: +6.3%
Revenue: +5%

AC:
passengers: +5.8%
ASM: +7.1%
Revenue: +11.2%
 
9252fly
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Re: The WestJet Thread

Mon Aug 12, 2019 10:48 pm

WS7M8 wrote:
A few additional thoughts:

Finally, part of the reason I believe WJ has transitioned to Link-sized aircraft is to help them flex their muscle in Calgary. Up until quite recently, AC offered more seats / day out of YYC, despite the fact WJ was the home town airline. AC hardly described YYC as a hub....more as a "focus city." Since Link was added, AC terminated the regional Air Georgian Calgary B1900 contract, upgauged some of those routes (Medicine Hat, Lethbridge) to Jazz DHC-8s, dropped other cities (Red Deer - a non-Link city roughly equidistant between YYC and YEG), not competed in others Link cities (Lloydminster - did Georgian they used to go there?), and not seen the necessity to compete in other markets (Prince George, Cranbrook) as you can easily connect to those places on AC through YVR.

.


To add additional context, Air Georgian never operated into Lloydminster YLL, however Central Mountain Air 9M did operate the route on behalf of AC prior to losing their CPA contract to Air Georgian. At that time AC terminated service to YLL, 9M took over the route at full-risk. Once WS Link entered the market a year ago, 9M withdrew from the route. A somewhat similar situation to WS entering the YVR-YXT market and driving Hawkair out .
 
Airlinerdude
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Re: The WestJet Thread

Tue Aug 13, 2019 4:56 am

WS7M8 wrote:
My WestJet Link predictions is as follows. Look for the Link product to be selectively rolled out across the country, beginning with Western Canada. Since Pacific Coastal Airlines, their Link subcontractor, is based in Vancouver, and WJ has a significant YVR hub, I think we'll see a natural progression of Link to the BC / YVR market within the next year or two.


Pasco was, and maybe still is, having some pilot retention problems. I believe that is why the launch of WestJet Link was initially delayed. I wouldn't be surprised if that was an inhibitor to growth.
 
WS7M8
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Re: The WestJet Thread

Fri Aug 16, 2019 1:15 am

Airlinerdude wrote:
WS7M8 wrote:
Pasco was, and maybe still is, having some pilot retention problems. I believe that is why the launch of WestJet Link was initially delayed. I wouldn't be surprised if that was an inhibitor to growth.


Sorry to hear that. I firmly believe WestJet will make that company, and that they'll find a way around it.

jimbo737 wrote:
WS7M8 wrote:
A few additional thoughts:

Pacific Coastal may feel some reluctance to partner with WJ on a Link product for BC because of how it would cannibalize their existing operation, which is largely geared to intra-BC travel. Here's saying they could spin off some of their Beech 1900 flying to their Wilderness Seaplanes Division. But I'm guessing they are doing their due diligence comparing existing data to what WJ feed would add to the network. Or the convenience of the South Terminal at YVR to the added benefit of WS passengers... They couldn't run their existing BC flying as a stand-alone plus be a WJ partner on a nearly-identical operation.

Finally, part of the reason I believe WJ has transitioned to Link-sized aircraft is to help them flex their muscle in Calgary. Up until quite recently, AC offered more seats / day out of YYC, despite the fact WJ was the home town airline. AC hardly described YYC as a hub....more as a "focus city." Since Link was added, AC terminated the regional Air Georgian Calgary B1900 contract, upgauged some of those routes (Medicine Hat, Lethbridge) to Jazz DHC-8s, dropped other cities (Red Deer - a non-Link city roughly equidistant between YYC and YEG), not competed in others Link cities (Lloydminster - did Georgian they used to go there?), and not seen the necessity to compete in other markets (Prince George, Cranbrook) as you can easily connect to those places on AC through YVR.

There are four main hubs where AC and WJ are battling in Canada. In three of them (YYZ, YUL, YVR), AC is the top dog. YYC is the closest fight between the two. Link is another tool for WJ to collect as many passengers as they can through Calgary, to enable the growth of the hub (eg widebody & expanded B737 + Encore flying). They are making slow but steady progress. There are numerous city pairs through YYC where you connection would be a Link Saab to say an Encore Q400, vs the old days when it was just one WS B737 to another WS B737. Will be really interesting to watch the next few years unfold.


Solid analysis.


Respect back for your outstanding perspectives on Team Teal.
Last edited by WS7M8 on Fri Aug 16, 2019 1:17 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
WS7M8
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Re: The WestJet Thread

Fri Aug 16, 2019 1:16 am

Deleted - double post
 
WS7M8
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Re: The WestJet Thread

Fri Aug 16, 2019 1:58 am

Whiteguy wrote:

WS just announced daily YVR-YXC-YVR service starting Oct 27th with Link.


Interesting. Based on my intepretation of the flight schedule, it looks like the (only) YVR - YXC flight continues on to YYC, and the first (of three) YYC - YXC flight goes on to YVR. The other two YYC YXC flights are turns. There will be 2 WestJet Link Saabs on the ground in YXC at ~11 am.

This will allow Pacific Coastal greater operational flexibility, in terms of getting aircraft to / from YVR to YYC or vice versa, as in YVR they have a bigger Saab maintenance facility, and a crew base to tap into. It also is the first WS Link flight out of YVR *and* the first Pacific Coastal BC non-aligned flying destination out of YVR that they'll also serve for WestJet.

Does this mean that Pacific Coastal will continue to serve YXC as an independent regional out of the YVR south terminal or is this market being completely aligned with their WestJet flying . If the latter is correct (my guess), then it is only a matter of time until the remainder of Pacific Coastal's BC flying transitions to WS Link. Currently the Pacific Coastal website is still showing them in the Vancouver South Terminal - Cranbook market 2x day, with B1900 service even from November onwards. Here is quite certain their WS Link presence will grow from YVR in the next few years. There are many small and mid-sized BC markets that could be brought on line. Additionally, there are doubtlessly some Encore markets that might be better served with a Saab 340B-sized aircraft. Nanaimo, Comox, Campbell River, Port Hardy, Kamloops, and Prince George. Fully mature, WS Link flying will probably resemble the AC Express DH1/3 YVR flying. Plenty of room for them to grow in the WJ YVR domestic gate area.

Congratulations to WestJet on this small addition to their schedule, with much bigger implications for the future!
Last edited by WS7M8 on Fri Aug 16, 2019 2:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
WS7M8
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Re: The WestJet Thread

Fri Aug 16, 2019 2:06 am

Deleted - double post
 
9252fly
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Re: The WestJet Thread

Fri Aug 16, 2019 2:37 am

WS7M8 wrote:
Whiteguy wrote:

WS just announced daily YVR-YXC-YVR service starting Oct 27th with Link.


Interesting. Based on my intepretation of the flight schedule, it looks like the (only) YVR - YXC flight continues on to YYC, and the first (of three) YYC - YXC flight goes on to YVR. The other two YYC YXC flights are turns. There will be 2 WestJet Link Saabs on the ground in YXC at ~11 am.



Only 1 SAAB on the ground at @1100. The aircraft originates in YYC and instead of returning to YYC, it continues on to YVR. The @1100 departure for YYC has been retimed to @1600 waiting for the inbound aircraft from YVR.
 
BML87
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Re: The WestJet Thread

Sun Aug 18, 2019 2:14 am

WS7M8 wrote:
There are four main hubs where AC and WJ are battling in Canada. In three of them (YYZ, YUL, YVR), AC is the top dog. YYC is the closest fight between the two.


Do you really think WestJet is battling for YUL?

I think they're perfectly content with YEG being their #4.
 
BML87
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Re: The WestJet Thread

Sun Aug 18, 2019 2:40 am

WestJet has applied to operate to Honduras

https://www.otc-cta.gc.ca/eng/ruling/a-2019-153
 
Dominion301
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Re: The WestJet Thread

Sun Aug 18, 2019 7:57 pm

BML87 wrote:
WS7M8 wrote:
There are four main hubs where AC and WJ are battling in Canada. In three of them (YYZ, YUL, YVR), AC is the top dog. YYC is the closest fight between the two.


Do you really think WestJet is battling for YUL?

I think they're perfectly content with YEG being their #4.


Is launching seasonal YUL-YXU considered “battling”? I think that route has more to do with WS group’s current focus on YXU. Will be surprised if it returns next summer.
 
Skyblue39
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Re: The WestJet Thread

Sun Aug 18, 2019 8:11 pm

Calgary - Dublin will start on May 30th 2020. Glad it is coming back again next summer.
 
smallmj
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Re: The WestJet Thread

Sun Aug 18, 2019 11:31 pm

BML87 wrote:
WS7M8 wrote:
There are four main hubs where AC and WJ are battling in Canada. In three of them (YYZ, YUL, YVR), AC is the top dog. YYC is the closest fight between the two.


Do you really think WestJet is battling for YUL?

I think they're perfectly content with YEG being their #4.


Westjet has mostly given up on Quebec. But if the Air Canada - Transat deal goes through they might have an opportunity to try again. Quebec customers might welcome some competition after Air Canada starts gouging them.
 
WS7M8
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Re: The WestJet Thread

Thu Aug 22, 2019 12:03 pm

smallmj wrote:

Do you really think WestJet is battling for YUL?

I think they're perfectly content with YEG being their #4.


[/quote]

Westjet has mostly given up on Quebec. But if the Air Canada - Transat deal goes through they might have an opportunity to try again. Quebec customers might welcome some competition after Air Canada starts gouging them.[/quote]



WJ is technically battling for YUL :-)

They have pulled back from their mini build up of a few years ago when they greatly enhanced the summer YUL schedule and even had Encore doing YUL - BOS / YQB among other destinations. YUL - YHZ and YYZ are the only Encore flights that have stuck around, the former does much better in the summer and the latter works because it is a B737 downgrade and they have to be in that market something 16x / day on weekdays to be presentable to the business traveller. I'm also curious to see if YUL - YXU sticks. I would bet against it.....it just seems like an odd route. Not to mention the YUL - FLL / MCO flying that they whacked a couple years ago that we discussed earlier in this thread. Also wonder if YQB - YYC will return as a summertime only route next year....I think they might be on to something there between tourism and VFR traffic linking Canada West connections and La Belle Province.

However, there is one absolute no-brainer Quebec route that they will be in, within 2-4 years: YUL - CDG, with the 787. Here's projecting it'll be the typical Canadian summertime schedule; daily service from April to October. Possibly even beginning in March to coincide with the school breaks, as they just renewed YYC - CDG for another year and that is beginning in March 2020 so that shows they have had some success in CDG. I'm guessing CDG - YYZ will be one of their new summer routes for this year ahead, with YUL to follow within a year or two.

I do get the logic of why they've trimmed their Montreal flying. WS has always been a company that doesn't fly routes for prestige. The routes they fly must perform or at least be trending the right way in order to keep the Teal presence on them. But YUL - CDG is massive. There are generally 6-8 flights / day between AC, Transat, and Air France. Even more if you factor in Orly, as that adds Level and Corsair. The volume is such that they will be sufficient passengers for WS to make money, even with the weaknesses they have in the YUL market, or that they are nowhere near as well known as the existing operators.

Additionally, as someone noted, with Transat being purchased by AC, there is going to be an opening for another competitor.

I'm actually betting on a gradual return of WS service to YUL over the next few years, with YUL-CDG being the showcase. BOS will likely come back....although it might be with a Delta Connection tail as DL is aggressively building up there, similar to what they did in SEA ~ 5 years ago. YQB may return if they can even figure out how to get a WS Link style partner in Central and Eastern Canada.

WS 7M8
 
Dominion301
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Re: The WestJet Thread

Thu Aug 22, 2019 6:49 pm

BML87 wrote:
WestJet has applied to operate to Honduras

https://www.otc-cta.gc.ca/eng/ruling/a-2019-153


Didn't take them long to announce something: https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/h ... 72317.html

WestJet today announced it will be adding Roatán, Honduras to its Caribbean destinations with its new non-stop seasonal service from Toronto starting December 15.


Weekly on Sundays.
 
YYZORD
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Re: The WestJet Thread

Thu Aug 22, 2019 8:42 pm

Anyone have an idea when the American side will approve the WS/DL JV?
 
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cirrusdragoon
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Re: The WestJet Thread

Thu Aug 22, 2019 10:10 pm

YYZORD wrote:
Anyone have an idea when the American side will approve the WS/DL JV?


The DOJ takes their sweet time to grant anti trust immunity . i wonder if they will take the full year , it will be a year in october i believe. who knows how long that is with the us govt, they will take as long as they require :(
 
hollywoodcory
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Re: The WestJet Thread

Fri Sep 06, 2019 6:19 pm

Pacific Coastal got approval to operate flights to the US for WS Link
https://www.otc-cta.gc.ca/eng/ruling/a-2019-164

Curious to see what markets they open.
 
RJNUT
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Re: The WestJet Thread

Fri Sep 06, 2019 6:52 pm

hollywoodcory wrote:
Pacific Coastal got approval to operate flights to the US for WS Link
https://www.otc-cta.gc.ca/eng/ruling/a-2019-164

Curious to see what markets they open.

Could that be possibly for GEG-YYC or BOI-YYC,etc. type markets?
 
Dominion301
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Re: The WestJet Thread

Fri Sep 06, 2019 7:51 pm

RJNUT wrote:
hollywoodcory wrote:
Pacific Coastal got approval to operate flights to the US for WS Link
https://www.otc-cta.gc.ca/eng/ruling/a-2019-164

Curious to see what markets they open.

Could that be possibly for GEG-YYC or BOI-YYC,etc. type markets?


Could be, but I’d suspect YVR-SEA and/or YYC-SEA/PDX is far more likely to either compliment or replace Encore.
 
YYZORD
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Re: The WestJet Thread

Fri Sep 06, 2019 7:58 pm

YVR-PDX could be a route that can compete with AC and AS thanks to the WS/DL JV as YYC-PDX is now flown by WS Encore.
 
WS7M8
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Re: The WestJet Thread

Wed Sep 11, 2019 12:52 pm

Dominion301 wrote:
BML87 wrote:
WestJet has applied to operate to Honduras

https://www.otc-cta.gc.ca/eng/ruling/a-2019-153


Didn't take them long to announce something: https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/h ... 72317.html

WestJet today announced it will be adding Roatán, Honduras to its Caribbean destinations with its new non-stop seasonal service from Toronto starting December 15.


Weekly on Sundays.


WestJet is gradually building their presence in Central America. They started YYZ - Belize City in 2016 on a similar schedule, and have now upped it to twice weekly, plus a Friday flight from Calgary. I think their connectivity really helped them in this case, as they knew a large volume of passengers were coming from Western Canada, so they just added the YYC flight to facilitate things.
 
WS7M8
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Re: The WestJet Thread

Wed Sep 11, 2019 1:01 pm

Dominion301 wrote:

Could be, but I’d suspect YVR-SEA and/or YYC-SEA/PDX is far more likely to either compliment or replace Encore.


YYZORD wrote:
YVR-PDX could be a route that can compete with AC and AS thanks to the WS/DL JV as YYC-PDX is now flown by WS Encore.


I strongly agree with both posts. WestJet has learned through trial and experience that Encore Q400s are just too much airplane for certain routes. The Pacific Coast / WestJet Link product is an excellent way to try their presence in certain markets. YVR - SEA / PDX are the routes I see them doing initially to the US.

Here's a wildcard: SEA - YYJ, as the DL Connection family recently dropped that. I'm curious how much interaction (if any) is allowed between the WestJet folks and Delta route planners, pre joint venture. If ever a route was suited to a Saab 340 versus a DL Connection RJ, that is it. Ironically, in this case, although the flight would technically be a WestJet one, they'd probably be carrying far more passengers who booked through DL and definitely doing their Delta friends a favour, bringing back YYJ feed to the SEA hub and offering competition for the 3x daily AS SEA-YYJ flights.
 
Dominion301
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Re: The WestJet Thread

Wed Sep 11, 2019 3:20 pm

WS7M8 wrote:
Dominion301 wrote:

Could be, but I’d suspect YVR-SEA and/or YYC-SEA/PDX is far more likely to either compliment or replace Encore.


YYZORD wrote:
YVR-PDX could be a route that can compete with AC and AS thanks to the WS/DL JV as YYC-PDX is now flown by WS Encore.


I strongly agree with both posts. WestJet has learned through trial and experience that Encore Q400s are just too much airplane for certain routes. The Pacific Coast / WestJet Link product is an excellent way to try their presence in certain markets. YVR - SEA / PDX are the routes I see them doing initially to the US.

Here's a wildcard: SEA - YYJ, as the DL Connection family recently dropped that. I'm curious how much interaction (if any) is allowed between the WestJet folks and Delta route planners, pre joint venture. If ever a route was suited to a Saab 340 versus a DL Connection RJ, that is it. Ironically, in this case, although the flight would technically be a WestJet one, they'd probably be carrying far more passengers who booked through DL and definitely doing their Delta friends a favour, bringing back YYJ feed to the SEA hub and offering competition for the 3x daily AS SEA-YYJ flights.


I hadn’t thought of YYJ-SEA but that makes a lot of sense.
 
EddieDude
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Re: The WestJet Thread

Wed Sep 11, 2019 4:20 pm

How many 789s will WS have in its fleet once all deliveries take place? I was wondering if there is any indication of future new 789 routes. IIANM, the 789 is currently sent to LGW from YYC and YYZ year round. It also flies seasonally YYC-CDG and YYC-DUB (summer) and YYC-Hawaii (winter). Any chance YYZ-BCN will become 789 once more planes arrive?
Upcoming flights:
May: AM MEX-CUN 73H (Y), AM CUN-MEX 73W (Y).
August: KL MEX-AMS 74M (J), KQ AMS-NBO 788 (J).
 
Dominion301
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Re: The WestJet Thread

Wed Sep 11, 2019 4:34 pm

EddieDude wrote:
How many 789s will WS have in its fleet once all deliveries take place? I was wondering if there is any indication of future new 789 routes. IIANM, the 789 is currently sent to LGW from YYC and YYZ year round. It also flies seasonally YYC-CDG and YYC-DUB (summer) and YYC-Hawaii (winter). Any chance YYZ-BCN will become 789 once more planes arrive?


10. They have options for 10 more, which I'd be shocked if they don't take them up.
 
jimbo737
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Re: The WestJet Thread

Wed Sep 11, 2019 4:46 pm

..especially when one considers who ultimately owns the first tranche of 787’s.......
 
whywhyzee
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Re: The WestJet Thread

Wed Sep 11, 2019 4:49 pm

EddieDude wrote:
How many 789s will WS have in its fleet once all deliveries take place? I was wondering if there is any indication of future new 789 routes. IIANM, the 789 is currently sent to LGW from YYC and YYZ year round. It also flies seasonally YYC-CDG and YYC-DUB (summer) and YYC-Hawaii (winter). Any chance YYZ-BCN will become 789 once more planes arrive?


The 787 also currently does 5x weekly YYC-YYZ-YYC trips, this winter it will be doing more IIRC.

I could see BCN going 789, but if I had to guess, you might see a YYZ-CDG or a YYZ/YYC-AMS get introduced. WS is in the process of laying the groundwork for a JV with AF/KLM, so it would seem logical to me to see those routes, and amongst the rumour circles, those seem to be the most frequently mentioned.
 
EddieDude
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Re: The WestJet Thread

Wed Sep 11, 2019 4:52 pm

Thanks Dominion301 and whywhyzee. I forgot the domestic runs. AMS/CDG make a lot of sense. Thanks again.
Upcoming flights:
May: AM MEX-CUN 73H (Y), AM CUN-MEX 73W (Y).
August: KL MEX-AMS 74M (J), KQ AMS-NBO 788 (J).
 
YYZORD
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Re: The WestJet Thread

Wed Sep 11, 2019 5:38 pm

I can see WS adding YYC-ICN as KE has a hub there and I'm sure many Calgarians and prairies pax want to avoid transiting at YVR or SEA.
 
whywhyzee
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Re: The WestJet Thread

Wed Sep 11, 2019 5:41 pm

YYZORD wrote:
I can see WS adding YYC-ICN as KE has a hub there and I'm sure many Calgarians and prairies pax want to avoid transiting at YVR or SEA.


The problem with Asia is because it's such a long flight, it takes more frames. They will only have 5 next summer, even 3x weekly YYC-ICN would take an entire frame worth of utilization, or roughly thereabouts.
They could also run a daily Europe flight with the same utilization, giving them over double the revenue opportunity. I cant see any Asia expansion until at least the first ten are delivered, and we venture into a subsequent order.
 
TObound
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Re: The WestJet Thread

Wed Sep 11, 2019 5:59 pm

I just wish WS would pick an alliance and get onboard. It just sucks not having another alliance as an option in a country as large as Canada.

My pick would be SkyTeam. But even Oneworld would be great.
 
hollywoodcory
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Re: The WestJet Thread

Wed Sep 11, 2019 7:04 pm

YYZORD wrote:
I can see WS adding YYC-ICN as KE has a hub there and I'm sure many Calgarians and prairies pax want to avoid transiting at YVR or SEA.


WS also says its interested in a JV with KE, so that makes chances of this eventually happening even higher (as KE already serves its other 2 hubs YVR & YYZ).
But I don't see WS jumping into Asia for a few years, and will focus mostly on Europe. I've heard a few WS employees who insist Asia is happening next summer, but that's been filed under "believe it when I see it."

The next 3 frames coming next year will likely be YYZ based. I suspect we should find out within the next few weeks what WS plans are for S20.
 
Dominion301
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Re: The WestJet Thread

Wed Sep 11, 2019 8:34 pm

EddieDude wrote:
Thanks Dominion301 and whywhyzee. I forgot the domestic runs. AMS/CDG make a lot of sense. Thanks again.


The only thing with AMS is good luck at getting slots. As for CDG, AF already serve YYZ, YUL and YVR, while WS serves YYC...and YHZ next summer assuming the MAX actually is cleared to fly by then. So in terms of adds, that leaves either duplicating AF stations or adding YEG or YOW, the latter on a MAX. In other words, not sure if YYZ-CDG makes sense at this point. YYZ-GLA and YYC-GLA make more sense to compliment YHZ-GLA.
 
WS7M8
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Re: The WestJet Thread

Wed Sep 11, 2019 10:39 pm

Dominion301 wrote:
WS7M8 wrote:
Dominion301 wrote:

Could be, but I’d suspect YVR-SEA and/or YYC-SEA/PDX is far more likely to either compliment or replace Encore.


YYZORD wrote:
YVR-PDX could be a route that can compete with AC and AS thanks to the WS/DL JV as YYC-PDX is now flown by WS Encore.


I strongly agree with both posts. WestJet has learned through trial and experience that Encore Q400s are just too much airplane for certain routes. The Pacific Coast / WestJet Link product is an excellent way to try their presence in certain markets. YVR - SEA / PDX are the routes I see them doing initially to the US.

Here's a wildcard: SEA - YYJ, as the DL Connection family recently dropped that. I'm curious how much interaction (if any) is allowed between the WestJet folks and Delta route planners, pre joint venture. If ever a route was suited to a Saab 340 versus a DL Connection RJ, that is it. Ironically, in this case, although the flight would technically be a WestJet one, they'd probably be carrying far more passengers who booked through DL and definitely doing their Delta friends a favour, bringing back YYJ feed to the SEA hub and offering competition for the 3x daily AS SEA-YYJ flights.


I hadn’t thought of YYJ-SEA but that makes a lot of sense.


Another odd one that could make sense would be YLW - SEA.

I'd be really curious to know the relationship status between WestJet and Delta route planners, especially when the Joint Venture kicks in. They will know the cost of every aircraft, per block hour. A WestJet Link Saab 340 would be about the cheapest lift in their system and for some experimental routes might make sense.

A couple weeks ago, the Delta pilots were in the news because they claimed their JV with Virgin Atlantic, Air France-KLM, and Alitalia was favouring the Euro partners too much. For example, pre JV, DL and Virgin Atlantic each had 3x daily LHR - JFK. Post JV, Virgin does LHR JFK 6x daily, whereas Delta does it 2x daily.

https://skift.com/2019/08/23/delta-pilo ... -partners/

Delta Connection flying could be easily farmed out to WestJet and its partners. My guess is because DLC is done by a rotating cast of carriers, and many of the pilots at those regionals are doing time to get to a major carrier, they won't be watching the routes all that much, as in the regional world flying comes and goes. If I am a Delta route planner, I am going to tap into WestJet Encore / WestJet Link all I can for transborder flying.

Interesting times ahead for everyone.....
 
WS7M8
Topic Author
Posts: 23
Joined: Fri Jun 28, 2019 2:35 pm

Re: The WestJet Thread

Wed Sep 11, 2019 11:33 pm

hollywoodcory wrote:
YYZORD wrote:
I can see WS adding YYC-ICN as KE has a hub there and I'm sure many Calgarians and prairies pax want to avoid transiting at YVR or SEA.


WS also says its interested in a JV with KE, so that makes chances of this eventually happening even higher (as KE already serves its other 2 hubs YVR & YYZ).
But I don't see WS jumping into Asia for a few years, and will focus mostly on Europe. I've heard a few WS employees who insist Asia is happening next summer, but that's been filed under "believe it when I see it."

The next 3 frames coming next year will likely be YYZ based. I suspect we should find out within the next few weeks what WS plans are for S20.


Dominion301 wrote:
EddieDude wrote:
Thanks Dominion301 and whywhyzee. I forgot the domestic runs. AMS/CDG make a lot of sense. Thanks again.


The only thing with AMS is good luck at getting slots. As for CDG, AF already serve YYZ, YUL and YVR, while WS serves YYC...and YHZ next summer assuming the MAX actually is cleared to fly by then. So in terms of adds, that leaves either duplicating AF stations or adding YEG or YOW, the latter on a MAX. In other words, not sure if YYZ-CDG makes sense at this point. YYZ-GLA and YYC-GLA make more sense to compliment YHZ-GLA.



I think HollywoodCory is onto something.

WS has 3 B787s arriving early in 2020.

Typically they preview the summer schedule in late October.

An Asian route, even done 3-4 x weekly, is going to eat up multiple airframes. Not only that, yields to the Pacific Rim have been decreasing steadily the last few years with increased competition. European flying however will allow 2 flights per day per aircraft, and keeps things simple from a flight planning point of view. No big sits or wasted ground time at either end. In a perfect world, with 6 B787s, WS could have 6 daily European flights. However airplanes break and need maintenance, so their schedule won't quite be so aggressive. I'd guess it'll be something like 5x European flights per day, with one aircraft an unofficial spare, that will have scheduled flight between YYZ and YYC that would allow it to cover for something that was broken. With brand new B787s that are proving quite reliable, they could even be more aggressive, perhaps scheduling 6 daily flights on busy days like Fridays, Sundays, or various known uptick-in-demand days.

Here's my math:

5x daily European flights * 7 days per week = 35 flights, which will break down as follows....

YYC - LGW 5x weekly
YVR - LGW 4x weekly
YYZ - LGW 7x weekly
YYC - CDG 4x weekly
YYC - DUB 3x weekly
YYZ - CDG 7x weekly
**YYZ - BCN 3x weekly
**YYZ - DUB 4x weekly
**YYC - BCN 2x weekly
**YEG - LGW 3x weekly
**YWG - LGW 1x weekly

Note everything preceeded by an an asterix is a WAG from my end, and my math ends up higher than the 35 projected TATL B787 flights.

A few comments:

YYZ - LGW - daily. This route has been a winner from inaugural B767 service. Time to grow the seating capacity and offer a better product.

YVR - LGW - ~4x weekly - grow the market and make LGW all B787, with the exception of YHZ.

YYZ BCN, 3x weekly? This will be the first indication of how YYZ BCN is doing for WS, whether they keep it a B767 or grow it to a 787 for next year. If they do bump it up to a 787, they could easily rotate it on a W pattern something like YYZ - BCN - YYC, to add service from Western Canada.

Is WS going to resume YEG LGW or YWG LGW, both of which they dropped due to B767 reliability issues? They have a reliable, top notch product now with the 787.

YYZ - CDG - daily. Guaranteed to be a winner. There is a massive amount of Canada - France traffic and WestJet needs to get their piece of the pie.

YYZ - DUB. Air Canada Rouge and Aer Lingus have really expanded this route, both in terms of frequency and aircraft size (the latter going from a B752 to an A330). The market is there, WestJet needs to have more of a presence than YHZ - DUB with onwards service to Central Canada. WestJet needs to be there. I question whether the 787 is the right aircraft due to its high # of premium seats, so this could be a 767 route. However as they see fit to fly YYC DUB in a 787, maybe they'll do the same from YYZ.

Really - WestJet needed extra B787s like yesterday. They have cost themselves significant opportunities in the last half decade with their slow moving strategy towards adding widebodies. With Air Transat being acquired by Air Canada, now is the time to insert themselves into the Canada - Europe equation. Additionally, when the Air Transat purchase takes place, YYZ's Terminal 3, a WestJet hub that has stagnated, will have 20-30 less departures / day at key times. They need to move quickly to fill that gap.

Finally, no discussion of WestJet B787 ops is complete without mention of WS B767 flying. The biggest takeaway I see from their winter 2019-2020 schedule is that the 767s are being taken off European flying and are migrating towards vacation destinations (CUN, PUJ, MBJ), and some YYC YYZ flying. Excellent decision. The 767 had its place and was WestJet's first widebody, but for all the good it has done in showing the feasibility of a widebody operation, it gives them occasional PR nightmares with maintenance issues, aircraft getting stranded in Europe, and minimal recovery capability.

Thus I forsee a limited role on TATL flying for the 767 in S20. As mentioned earlier, my guess is that LGW will be all B787 (YHZ exception).. BCN may get the 767 from YYZ, if they don't upgauge it to a 787, and if the yields are there WS may rotate it through BCN to YYC perhaps once or twice a week.. They may opt to launch YUL CDG with it. But mostly I see it backfilling the 787's domestic flying, YYC YYZ, perhaps the odd YYZ YVR, to open up the 787s for only European flying. This would make sense, as from my experience as a WestJet passenger, the 767 service feels a lot like the 737 service, whereas the 787 on board product is completely different.
 
BML87
Posts: 57
Joined: Thu Dec 28, 2017 6:55 pm

Re: The WestJet Thread

Wed Sep 11, 2019 11:52 pm

Daily YYC-NRT could be done with one aircraft no?
 
WS7M8
Topic Author
Posts: 23
Joined: Fri Jun 28, 2019 2:35 pm

Re: The WestJet Thread

Thu Sep 12, 2019 12:08 am

Other wildcard destinations that WS B787s may go, if not next summer, then certainly in years ahead:

YYZ: GLA, EDI, MAN, AMS, CDG, MAD, FCO, somewhere in Germany

*The partner thing with AF / KLM / Alitalia I get. Somehow I don't see that dissuading WS from launching services. JV's go both ways, and metal from both countries will be deployed on all routes. It won't AF / KLM hanging onto the choice routes (AMS / CDG - YYZ / YVR / YUL) and WS doing the tougher stuff (YHZ / YYC - CDG).

YYC: AMS, somewhere in Germany

YVR: AMS, Seoul (SkyTeam), HKG, somewhere in China, AKL, Sydney AUS, Melbourne AUS

Its really not rocket science. Canada - Europe TATL flying is a mature market and then have been no shortage of operators trying to make a go of it the last 20-40 years. With the exception of the old Canadian Airlines / Canadian Pacific, no one has had the domestic and North American / Central America / Caribbean network that WestJet has. Interesting times ahead in the Canadian skies.....
 
Dominion301
Posts: 2223
Joined: Wed Jul 20, 2016 1:48 pm

Re: The WestJet Thread

Thu Sep 12, 2019 12:12 am

WS7M8 wrote:
Is WS going to resume YEG LGW or YWG LGW, both of which they dropped due to B767 reliability issues? They have a reliable, top notch product now with the 787.


Both of these routes weren't dropped but their seasons were shortened in summers 2018 & 2019 compared with the inaugural year due to the 767 issues.
 
WS7M8
Topic Author
Posts: 23
Joined: Fri Jun 28, 2019 2:35 pm

Re: The WestJet Thread

Thu Sep 12, 2019 12:14 am

Dominion301 wrote:
WS7M8 wrote:
Is WS going to resume YEG LGW or YWG LGW, both of which they dropped due to B767 reliability issues? They have a reliable, top notch product now with the 787.


Both of these routes weren't dropped but their seasons were shortened in summers 2018 & 2019 compared with the inaugural year due to the 767 issues.


My bad.

It is an awful lot of work sifting through airline websites for schedules. I almost miss the good ol' days of paper schedules......
 
Dominion301
Posts: 2223
Joined: Wed Jul 20, 2016 1:48 pm

Re: The WestJet Thread

Thu Sep 12, 2019 12:15 am

WS7M8 wrote:
Dominion301 wrote:
WS7M8 wrote:
Is WS going to resume YEG LGW or YWG LGW, both of which they dropped due to B767 reliability issues? They have a reliable, top notch product now with the 787.


Both of these routes weren't dropped but their seasons were shortened in summers 2018 & 2019 compared with the inaugural year due to the 767 issues.


My bad.

It is an awful lot of work sifting through airline websites for schedules. I almost miss the good ol' days of paper schedules......


Yup would love to be able to collect paper timetables again. I used to memorize those things from front to back.
 
hollywoodcory
Posts: 22
Joined: Sun Sep 25, 2016 3:29 am

Re: The WestJet Thread

Thu Sep 12, 2019 1:25 am

The 787s will likely be YYC & YYZ based only with an outside chance of YVR. Do not see them in YEG or YWG.

From what's currently scheduled with the 787s, it can be done with 4 frames. That leaves 2 presently unaccounted for.

I also can see them adding YYC-BCN, but I'm unsure about on a 789 though? The loads seemed pretty good from what I can tell.
YYC-CDG could even get increased, they've already extended the season on it. I eventually even see this possibly becoming year-round.

Some other Europe possibilities include MUC, FCO, GLA (from YYZ or YYC), MAN.

All I see happening in Asia is: PKX, NRT and ICN. Smaller chance of PVG or HKG too.

BML87 wrote:
Daily YYC-NRT could be done with one aircraft no?


Yes, but I still don't see WS going into Asia for now. With AC'S YYC-NRT now the only mainline 767 route left for next summer, I wonder if they're holding off making any decisions on that route to see what WS is planning.
 
whywhyzee
Posts: 1036
Joined: Tue Jan 05, 2016 3:12 am

Re: The WestJet Thread

Thu Sep 12, 2019 3:13 am

WS7M8 wrote:
hollywoodcory wrote:
YYZORD wrote:
I can see WS adding YYC-ICN as KE has a hub there and I'm sure many Calgarians and prairies pax want to avoid transiting at YVR or SEA.


WS also says its interested in a JV with KE, so that makes chances of this eventually happening even higher (as KE already serves its other 2 hubs YVR & YYZ).
But I don't see WS jumping into Asia for a few years, and will focus mostly on Europe. I've heard a few WS employees who insist Asia is happening next summer, but that's been filed under "believe it when I see it."

The next 3 frames coming next year will likely be YYZ based. I suspect we should find out within the next few weeks what WS plans are for S20.


Dominion301 wrote:
EddieDude wrote:
Thanks Dominion301 and whywhyzee. I forgot the domestic runs. AMS/CDG make a lot of sense. Thanks again.


The only thing with AMS is good luck at getting slots. As for CDG, AF already serve YYZ, YUL and YVR, while WS serves YYC...and YHZ next summer assuming the MAX actually is cleared to fly by then. So in terms of adds, that leaves either duplicating AF stations or adding YEG or YOW, the latter on a MAX. In other words, not sure if YYZ-CDG makes sense at this point. YYZ-GLA and YYC-GLA make more sense to compliment YHZ-GLA.



I think HollywoodCory is onto something.

WS has 3 B787s arriving early in 2020.

Typically they preview the summer schedule in late October.

An Asian route, even done 3-4 x weekly, is going to eat up multiple airframes. Not only that, yields to the Pacific Rim have been decreasing steadily the last few years with increased competition. European flying however will allow 2 flights per day per aircraft, and keeps things simple from a flight planning point of view. No big sits or wasted ground time at either end. In a perfect world, with 6 B787s, WS could have 6 daily European flights. However airplanes break and need maintenance, so their schedule won't quite be so aggressive. I'd guess it'll be something like 5x European flights per day, with one aircraft an unofficial spare, that will have scheduled flight between YYZ and YYC that would allow it to cover for something that was broken. With brand new B787s that are proving quite reliable, they could even be more aggressive, perhaps scheduling 6 daily flights on busy days like Fridays, Sundays, or various known uptick-in-demand days.

Here's my math:

5x daily European flights * 7 days per week = 35 flights, which will break down as follows....

YYC - LGW 5x weekly
YVR - LGW 4x weekly
YYZ - LGW 7x weekly
YYC - CDG 4x weekly
YYC - DUB 3x weekly
YYZ - CDG 7x weekly
**YYZ - BCN 3x weekly
**YYZ - DUB 4x weekly
**YYC - BCN 2x weekly
**YEG - LGW 3x weekly
**YWG - LGW 1x weekly

Note everything preceeded by an an asterix is a WAG from my end, and my math ends up higher than the 35 projected TATL B787 flights.

A few comments:

YYZ - LGW - daily. This route has been a winner from inaugural B767 service. Time to grow the seating capacity and offer a better product.

YVR - LGW - ~4x weekly - grow the market and make LGW all B787, with the exception of YHZ.

YYZ BCN, 3x weekly? This will be the first indication of how YYZ BCN is doing for WS, whether they keep it a B767 or grow it to a 787 for next year. If they do bump it up to a 787, they could easily rotate it on a W pattern something like YYZ - BCN - YYC, to add service from Western Canada.

Is WS going to resume YEG LGW or YWG LGW, both of which they dropped due to B767 reliability issues? They have a reliable, top notch product now with the 787.

YYZ - CDG - daily. Guaranteed to be a winner. There is a massive amount of Canada - France traffic and WestJet needs to get their piece of the pie.

YYZ - DUB. Air Canada Rouge and Aer Lingus have really expanded this route, both in terms of frequency and aircraft size (the latter going from a B752 to an A330). The market is there, WestJet needs to have more of a presence than YHZ - DUB with onwards service to Central Canada. WestJet needs to be there. I question whether the 787 is the right aircraft due to its high # of premium seats, so this could be a 767 route. However as they see fit to fly YYC DUB in a 787, maybe they'll do the same from YYZ.

Really - WestJet needed extra B787s like yesterday. They have cost themselves significant opportunities in the last half decade with their slow moving strategy towards adding widebodies. With Air Transat being acquired by Air Canada, now is the time to insert themselves into the Canada - Europe equation. Additionally, when the Air Transat purchase takes place, YYZ's Terminal 3, a WestJet hub that has stagnated, will have 20-30 less departures / day at key times. They need to move quickly to fill that gap.

Finally, no discussion of WestJet B787 ops is complete without mention of WS B767 flying. The biggest takeaway I see from their winter 2019-2020 schedule is that the 767s are being taken off European flying and are migrating towards vacation destinations (CUN, PUJ, MBJ), and some YYC YYZ flying. Excellent decision. The 767 had its place and was WestJet's first widebody, but for all the good it has done in showing the feasibility of a widebody operation, it gives them occasional PR nightmares with maintenance issues, aircraft getting stranded in Europe, and minimal recovery capability.

Thus I forsee a limited role on TATL flying for the 767 in S20. As mentioned earlier, my guess is that LGW will be all B787 (YHZ exception).. BCN may get the 767 from YYZ, if they don't upgauge it to a 787, and if the yields are there WS may rotate it through BCN to YYC perhaps once or twice a week.. They may opt to launch YUL CDG with it. But mostly I see it backfilling the 787's domestic flying, YYC YYZ, perhaps the odd YYZ YVR, to open up the 787s for only European flying. This would make sense, as from my experience as a WestJet passenger, the 767 service feels a lot like the 737 service, whereas the 787 on board product is completely different.


Excellent detailed analysis! Appreciate seeing people on this sight putting effort like that into posts.

You make an interesting point with YYZ-DUB, AC actually went mainline on the route a couple years ago with a daily A333. The route grew last year by 5.5% in terms of total pax, which is a fairly healthy growth rate, it could definately be a great opportunity for WS, with huge O/D between Ontario and Ireland. The Max can also fly the route in the low season as required, or if the 787 proves to be too much capacity. As it stands, the YYZ-DUB flight is often filled with connections, which can make it a challenge in irrops situations.

I'm not sure you will see the 787 outside of YYC and YYZ, even if warranted from places like YVR, WS also has to consider buying some consistency and a following of their new product. What they don't want is to spread them too thin and not really develop a positive association with the product in the core markets.

Without theorizing specific routes, places where I think WS can thrive given their 789 configuration and availability is high tourist draw European cities that also have business ties to Canada, places like AMS, DUB, CDG, LON to start. I can't foresee much risk in their first few years of 787 flying, they really have to establish a loyal customer base and most importantly, corporate connections before they can really venture out and explore some more let's say...exotic locations.
 
DobboDobbo
Posts: 869
Joined: Thu Mar 03, 2016 1:02 am

Re: The WestJet Thread

Thu Sep 12, 2019 6:03 am

WS7M8 wrote:
Other wildcard destinations that WS B787s may go, if not next summer, then certainly in years ahead:

YYZ: GLA, EDI, MAN, AMS, CDG, MAD, FCO, somewhere in Germany

*The partner thing with AF / KLM / Alitalia I get. Somehow I don't see that dissuading WS from launching services. JV's go both ways, and metal from both countries will be deployed on all routes. It won't AF / KLM hanging onto the choice routes (AMS / CDG - YYZ / YVR / YUL) and WS doing the tougher stuff (YHZ / YYC - CDG).

YYC: AMS, somewhere in Germany

YVR: AMS, Seoul (SkyTeam), HKG, somewhere in China, AKL, Sydney AUS, Melbourne AUS

Its really not rocket science. Canada - Europe TATL flying is a mature market and then have been no shortage of operators trying to make a go of it the last 20-40 years. With the exception of the old Canadian Airlines / Canadian Pacific, no one has had the domestic and North American / Central America / Caribbean network that WestJet has. Interesting times ahead in the Canadian skies.....


One point to flag up with specific reference to WS and MAN, is that VS have taken over the UK regional carrier (FlyBe) which they say they are rebranding to feed VS longhaul at MAN.

Given the close links between VS and DL, AF and KL - and their close links with WS, this might be a de facto hub for WS to aim for over the coming years (particularly as it is currently served by Transat and Rouge who may cut capacity if AC’s takeover of TS goes through).
 
whywhyzee
Posts: 1036
Joined: Tue Jan 05, 2016 3:12 am

Re: The WestJet Thread

Mon Sep 16, 2019 3:47 pm

https://www.skiesmag.com/news/discussin ... in-canada/

Interview with WS notes they are looking at expanding their ties with AF/KLM and VS, gives a good idea where their focus will be in the future.
 
hollywoodcory
Posts: 22
Joined: Sun Sep 25, 2016 3:29 am

Re: The WestJet Thread

Tue Sep 17, 2019 4:52 pm

whywhyzee wrote:
https://www.skiesmag.com/news/discussing-the-future-of-aviation-in-canada/

Interview with WS notes they are looking at expanding their ties with AF/KLM and VS, gives a good idea where their focus will be in the future.


Article also confirms Asia won't be happening for a bit as well.

“The challenge with Asia is that it is difficult to serve because of distance and overcapacity in the market, which translates into lower fares,” said Mike McNaney, vice-president, Industry, Corporate and Airport Affairs for WestJet.

“There is lots of growth coming from the transpacific, but the capacity is growing faster than the demand. When capacity demands are back in balance, we will launch service. One thing we are certain about is that we will not fly profitless volume. We need deep analysis on the markets, and we will not rush into that decision.”
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 5629
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: The WestJet Thread

Tue Sep 17, 2019 6:28 pm

WS7M8 wrote:
I'd be really curious to know the relationship status between WestJet and Delta route planners, especially when the Joint Venture kicks in. They will know the cost of every aircraft, per block hour. A WestJet Link Saab 340 would be about the cheapest lift in their system and for some experimental routes might make sense.

A couple weeks ago, the Delta pilots were in the news because they claimed their JV with Virgin Atlantic, Air France-KLM, and Alitalia was favouring the Euro partners too much. For example, pre JV, DL and Virgin Atlantic each had 3x daily LHR - JFK. Post JV, Virgin does LHR JFK 6x daily, whereas Delta does it 2x daily.

https://skift.com/2019/08/23/delta-pilo ... -partners/

Delta Connection flying could be easily farmed out to WestJet and its partners.


I don't expect that, really. DL has made sure that growing ops at LAX, SEA and BOS are flown exclusively with 2-class (jet) aircraft. They will not readily seek to pollute them with Saabs and Encore Q400s.
 
whywhyzee
Posts: 1036
Joined: Tue Jan 05, 2016 3:12 am

Re: The WestJet Thread

Tue Sep 17, 2019 7:06 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
WS7M8 wrote:
I'd be really curious to know the relationship status between WestJet and Delta route planners, especially when the Joint Venture kicks in. They will know the cost of every aircraft, per block hour. A WestJet Link Saab 340 would be about the cheapest lift in their system and for some experimental routes might make sense.

A couple weeks ago, the Delta pilots were in the news because they claimed their JV with Virgin Atlantic, Air France-KLM, and Alitalia was favouring the Euro partners too much. For example, pre JV, DL and Virgin Atlantic each had 3x daily LHR - JFK. Post JV, Virgin does LHR JFK 6x daily, whereas Delta does it 2x daily.

https://skift.com/2019/08/23/delta-pilo ... -partners/

Delta Connection flying could be easily farmed out to WestJet and its partners.


I don't expect that, really. DL has made sure that growing ops at LAX, SEA and BOS are flown exclusively with 2-class (jet) aircraft. They will not readily seek to pollute them with Saabs and Encore Q400s.


Agreed, if anything, some WS transborder flying may be swapped to DL, especially WR operated routes (YYZ-BOS, maybe YYC-PDX).
 
9252fly
Posts: 948
Joined: Thu Sep 22, 2005 7:19 am

Re: The WestJet Thread

Tue Sep 17, 2019 7:34 pm

whywhyzee wrote:
https://www.skiesmag.com/news/discussing-the-future-of-aviation-in-canada/

Interview with WS notes they are looking at expanding their ties with AF/KLM and VS, gives a good idea where their focus will be in the future.


It was interesting to read that the profit margin per passenger was $3.25 CAD according to Ed Sims the CEO of Westjet.

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