RandWkop
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Could the A220 take advantage of MAX grounding.

Sun Jul 28, 2019 9:17 am

I was reading through the MAX grounding thread over the past couple of days. A couple of things stood out. In the next few months some operators will be able to cancel without penalty. Also it seems that a new problem comes to light every week. The latest being the dangers to the plane from an uncontained engine failure and the discussion around that between BA and the FAA.
One saving Grace for Boeing is the fact that the A320 line is sold out for the next 7 to 8 years with not much hope of a ramp up beyond 70 planes per month.

But surely Airbus must be looking at Boeing's MAX customer list to see if any would consider the A220 as a viable alternative. I'm not talking about about WN or FR. But there are many orders from lessors and smaller airlines that could be targeted.

Range and capacity differences between the MAX and the A220 are large. But the A220 would be cheaper to buy and operate.

The Canadian line has a Capacity of 10 per month at the minute. Airbus is planning a second line in Mobile.

Surely it is something that Airbus is taking a serious look at.

I didn't include Embraer in this as I can't see Boeing undermining an already troubled product.

Please discuss or deride as you see fit.
 
ist2014
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Re: Could the A220 take advantage of MAX grounding.

Sun Jul 28, 2019 10:31 am

Seems reasonable for me, it can be used at lots of 320/319 missions and free-up production line for 321/320s
 
aeropix
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Re: Could the A220 take advantage of MAX grounding.

Sun Jul 28, 2019 10:54 am

RandWkop wrote:
The Canadian line has a Capacity of 10 per month at the minute. Airbus is planning a second line in Mobile.


Well, at least 400 MAX 737's have been built so far. so,

1/ If Airbus / Bombardier were to offer one for one replacements of those already produced, they would need almost 4 years just to replace the MAX's sitting around right now.
2/ There's still around 500 A220's on order already, so the MAX "Replacement Program" could only start 5 years from now once all current orders have been fulfilled and be completed by 2026-2027
3/ Most MAX airplanes are larger than the A220 and therefore not really a candidate for such a promotion.

So, for the above reasons, I think everyone will sit tight and await the MAX repairs rather than queuing up for A220's as replacement machines.
 
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flyingphil
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Re: Could the A220 take advantage of MAX grounding.

Sun Jul 28, 2019 10:56 am

The main challenge for the A220 is ramping up production. . .so its still a long long wait for deliveries..

I wouldn’t write off an order from Southwest, there were rumours they were looking at it, and they are not happy with Boeing at the moment.

Also Ryanair now owns Laudamotion that is all Airbus, plus MaltaAir and other offshoots.. its all about the $$££ .. so if the A220 can make money for them. . why not?

The new Embraer is a similar product, Boeing has a joint venture with Embraer.. maybe that is another possibility.
 
kimimm19
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Re: Could the A220 take advantage of MAX grounding.

Sun Jul 28, 2019 12:33 pm

I would say there are only two ways that the MAX grounding could beneift the A220:

1. Those who ordered the -8 only because the -7 is not optimised and are on the edge of the capacity of that a319/737-7 range.

2. It gives Airbus more time to make an a220-500 a viable option if they actually build it and put it to market.

Otherwise no, I don't think so.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Could the A220 take advantage of MAX grounding.

Sun Jul 28, 2019 12:46 pm

flyingphil wrote:
The main challenge for the A220 is ramping up production. . .so its still a long long wait for deliveries..

I wouldn’t write off an order from Southwest, there were rumours they were looking at it, and they are not happy with Boeing at the moment.

Also Ryanair now owns Laudamotion that is all Airbus, plus MaltaAir and other offshoots.. its all about the $$££ .. so if the A220 can make money for them. . why not?

The new Embraer is a similar product, Boeing has a joint venture with Embraer.. maybe that is another possibility.

The production ramp, at low cost is the primary challenge. Bombardier had too low of volume to gain great contracts. Airbus, in particular if the rumors of the AF order come true, (another thread for AF, announcement rumored Tuesday 7/30) has upped production. Prior production was uneconomical. A minimum of a hundred per year is required to bring down part costs and create a large enough aftermarket. The economies of scale that automation and today's more expensive certification force is staggering. With automation, doubling production reduces the cost per unit by 13%! That means acheive volume or die.

The MAX will fly again. Well before the A220 production ramp and certainly before an A220-500. The reality is that Airbus must:
1. PiP the aircraft to improve reliability. It is not at 737 standards per anecdotal evidence (we have a thread on that).
2. Increase production.
3. PiP current airframe further (reduce costs), eventually the engine
4. Stretch the aircraft to enter the bulk of the market.

Manufacturing is slow. Some components have 24 month lead times:. Engine casing, wingbox, engine rotors, wings, landing gear, and turbine blades. Currently, the ability to make new design turbine blades is constraining the whole industry as yield is 30% lower now than a mature process (which takes 7 years) delivers. The same, but to a lower magnitude, is true of all castings (casings and rotors).

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Re: Could the A220 take advantage of MAX grounding.

Sun Jul 28, 2019 12:54 pm

Airbus would not make any money, if they sell the A220 at the price of a 737MAX considering the compensations customers will get. The economy of scales is not there.
 
Bricktop
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Re: Could the A220 take advantage of MAX grounding.

Sun Jul 28, 2019 1:00 pm

You answered your own question.

RandWkop wrote:
One saving Grace for Boeing is the fact that the A320 line is sold out for the next 7 to 8 years with not much hope of a ramp up beyond 70 planes per month.


70 a month is ludicrously out of the question. The entire supply chain would explode. Even 20 a month would be a huge leap.
 
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Re: Could the A220 take advantage of MAX grounding.

Sun Jul 28, 2019 1:03 pm

I am going too state the A220 W I L L take advantage of the Boeing MAX grounding.

Small LCC’s who wish to introduce it or re-fleet when they have other multiple types in their inventory unfortunately incur way more added costs and complications rather than an airline that operates a single fleet type.

Be wary of ULCC’s and legacies in the US making territorial inroads during this process, if not done carefully.
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Re: Could the A220 take advantage of MAX grounding.

Sun Jul 28, 2019 1:14 pm

Absolutely. The 737MAX7 only has 60 orders right now, probably making it a failure (it is about the same size as the A220-300). Meanwhile, the A220-300 has 461 orders, but that’s not to say that it is all because of the grounding (actually, it’s only received ten orders since the beginning of the grounding).The A220 is also cheaper and more efficient than the MAX7. With only a 20 seat difference between the MAX8 and A220-300, I don’t see Delta ever buying a MAX (and instead ordering the A220-300 and A320/321).
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Re: Could the A220 take advantage of MAX grounding.

Sun Jul 28, 2019 1:53 pm

Gulfstream500 wrote:
Absolutely. The 737MAX7 only has 60 orders right now, probably making it a failure (it is about the same size as the A220-300). Meanwhile, the A220-300 has 461 orders, but that’s not to say that it is all because of the grounding (actually, it’s only received ten orders since the beginning of the grounding).The A220 is also cheaper and more efficient than the MAX7. With only a 20 seat difference between the MAX8 and A220-300, I don’t see Delta ever buying a MAX (and instead ordering the A220-300 and A320/321).

DL is opportunistic and knows the public has a short attention span. I actually expect them to order the -8/-10 after the grounding is lifted. But only for the right price and MRO rights.

Note:. DL might even negotiate in a free CMC upgrade as part of the deal.

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mwhcvt
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Re: Could the A220 take advantage of MAX grounding.

Sun Jul 28, 2019 2:08 pm

The A220 is in a fundamentally different section of the market to the MAX with only the barely selling MAX7 just about intersecting with current top end of the A220 family, this is before we even consider that when it comes to capital expenditure by the airlines on aircraft this is a mutli year program, even if the grounding were to run for a full 12 months most customers will still stick with their purchases, as it’s not just aircraft they have invested in, its training not only of pilots and crew, but under the wing too, they have invested in simulators, spares and besides airbus just hasn’t the capacity to deliver alternatives to the MAX be that in the form of A220 or A320N and again as with the airlines and their purchases being something planned over years not months the same goes for any production ramp up as not only would Airbus themselves have to invest in increased FAL capacity and the needed staff and equipment so would every single supplier, and again that takes years from first sign off to extra planes rolling out the door

The only way I see Airbus even contemplating any attempt to win over MAX customers currently hit by the grounding is if somehow it’s eventually discovered that the MAX is fundamentally unfixable forcing Boeing to go back to the drawing board and go clean sheet, but I very much doubt the chances of that happening
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Re: Could the A220 take advantage of MAX grounding.

Sun Jul 28, 2019 2:20 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Gulfstream500 wrote:
Absolutely. The 737MAX7 only has 60 orders right now, probably making it a failure (it is about the same size as the A220-300). Meanwhile, the A220-300 has 461 orders, but that’s not to say that it is all because of the grounding (actually, it’s only received ten orders since the beginning of the grounding).The A220 is also cheaper and more efficient than the MAX7. With only a 20 seat difference between the MAX8 and A220-300, I don’t see Delta ever buying a MAX (and instead ordering the A220-300 and A320/321).

DL is opportunistic and knows the public has a short attention span. I actually expect them to order the -8/-10 after the grounding is lifted. But only for the right price and MRO rights.

Note:. DL might even negotiate in a free CMC upgrade as part of the deal.

Lightsaber


Where exactly does the MAX fit in at DL?

I'm not sure they need it, as long as Airbus keeps giving them good prices on 321NEOs.
 
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Re: Could the A220 take advantage of MAX grounding.

Sun Jul 28, 2019 2:26 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Gulfstream500 wrote:
Absolutely. The 737MAX7 only has 60 orders right now, probably making it a failure (it is about the same size as the A220-300). Meanwhile, the A220-300 has 461 orders, but that’s not to say that it is all because of the grounding (actually, it’s only received ten orders since the beginning of the grounding).The A220 is also cheaper and more efficient than the MAX7. With only a 20 seat difference between the MAX8 and A220-300, I don’t see Delta ever buying a MAX (and instead ordering the A220-300 and A320/321).

DL is opportunistic and knows the public has a short attention span. I actually expect them to order the -8/-10 after the grounding is lifted. But only for the right price and MRO rights.

Note:. DL might even negotiate in a free CMC upgrade as part of the deal.

Lightsaber


I think that if Delta orders a MAX, then it will be something in the long term. Their 737s are all NGs, and they don’t need replacement for 5-10+ years by Delta standards. Conveniently, this is when the next A320neo delivery slots are open.

Delta currently has a better spot on the playing field, so why give it up so that they have another aircraft type with limited commonality with the A220 and A320? A really good deal, I suppose.

I think their next order from Boeing will be the 797 to replace the 757/larger 737s, giving the larger MAXes no place in the fleet.
Last edited by Gulfstream500 on Sun Jul 28, 2019 2:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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avgeekjohn
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Re: Could the A220 take advantage of MAX grounding.

Sun Jul 28, 2019 2:27 pm

mwhcvt wrote:
The A220 is in a fundamentally different section of the market to the MAX with only the barely selling MAX7 just about intersecting with current top end of the A220 family, this is before we even consider that when it comes to capital expenditure by the airlines on aircraft this is a mutli year program, even if the grounding were to run for a full 12 months most customers will still stick with their purchases, as it’s not just aircraft they have invested in, its training not only of pilots and crew, but under the wing too, they have invested in simulators, spares and besides airbus just hasn’t the capacity to deliver alternatives to the MAX be that in the form of A220 or A320N and again as with the airlines and their purchases being something planned over years not months the same goes for any production ramp up as not only would Airbus themselves have to invest in increased FAL capacity and the needed staff and equipment so would every single supplier, and again that takes years from first sign off to extra planes rolling out the door

The only way I see Airbus even contemplating any attempt to win over MAX customers currently hit by the grounding is if somehow it’s eventually discovered that the MAX is fundamentally unfixable forcing Boeing to go back to the drawing board and go clean sheet, but I very much doubt the chances of that happening


This, in my opinion, is especially true considering the different ranges of the A220 vs the MAX. A number of carriers are surely planning on using their MAXs on longer routes that the A220 won't be able to serve nonstop, negating the A220's financial operating benefits by forcing airlines to pay for extra ground staff at intermediate airports, more airport fees, etc.
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Re: Could the A220 take advantage of MAX grounding.

Sun Jul 28, 2019 2:27 pm

TObound wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Gulfstream500 wrote:
Absolutely. The 737MAX7 only has 60 orders right now, probably making it a failure (it is about the same size as the A220-300). Meanwhile, the A220-300 has 461 orders, but that’s not to say that it is all because of the grounding (actually, it’s only received ten orders since the beginning of the grounding).The A220 is also cheaper and more efficient than the MAX7. With only a 20 seat difference between the MAX8 and A220-300, I don’t see Delta ever buying a MAX (and instead ordering the A220-300 and A320/321).

DL is opportunistic and knows the public has a short attention span. I actually expect them to order the -8/-10 after the grounding is lifted. But only for the right price and MRO rights.

Note:. DL might even negotiate in a free CMC upgrade as part of the deal.

Lightsaber


Where exactly does the MAX fit in at DL?

I'm not sure they need it, as long as Airbus keeps giving them good prices on 321NEOs.

Pricing and delivery timeline. The MAX allows for earlier replacement. DL flies the 737 already, so it is an easy addition.

It allows DL to MRO the LEAP too (a condition I'm certain DL would demand). It fits in as growth and replacement of A320s and 738s. The -10 has wonderful economics from ATL and DTW.

Where wouldn't it work? I'm a Pratt fan. I want DL to grow on PW1100G powered A321s. But that doesn't make it the best business decision. Boeing/GE will bargain for DL. Delta is notorious for negotiating tough deals (as they should).

This is about cutting costs. With an 8 year backlog, there is no way Airbus would be as agresive.

It isn't what one can do, it is how fungible the aircraft are. DL, AA, and UA play both against each other well and that won't stop.

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Redd
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Re: Could the A220 take advantage of MAX grounding.

Sun Jul 28, 2019 2:32 pm

Bricktop wrote:
You answered your own question.

RandWkop wrote:
One saving Grace for Boeing is the fact that the A320 line is sold out for the next 7 to 8 years with not much hope of a ramp up beyond 70 planes per month.


70 a month is ludicrously out of the question. The entire supply chain would explode. Even 20 a month would be a huge leap.


The 320 is being turned out at 53 airplanes per month, with a goal of 63 in 2021. Not sure where you're getting 20 being a huge leap.
 
F9Animal
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Re: Could the A220 take advantage of MAX grounding.

Sun Jul 28, 2019 2:42 pm

I suspect the A220 will become a hot seller soon. With the MAX debacle, the 220 has more advantages at this point.
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crimsonchin
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Re: Could the A220 take advantage of MAX grounding.

Sun Jul 28, 2019 2:52 pm

No MAX order (that wasn't already in danger of being cancelled even before the grounding) is getting cancelled.
 
Sancho99504
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Re: Could the A220 take advantage of MAX grounding.

Sun Jul 28, 2019 3:10 pm

TObound wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Gulfstream500 wrote:
Absolutely. The 737MAX7 only has 60 orders right now, probably making it a failure (it is about the same size as the A220-300). Meanwhile, the A220-300 has 461 orders, but that’s not to say that it is all because of the grounding (actually, it’s only received ten orders since the beginning of the grounding).The A220 is also cheaper and more efficient than the MAX7. With only a 20 seat difference between the MAX8 and A220-300, I don’t see Delta ever buying a MAX (and instead ordering the A220-300 and A320/321).

DL is opportunistic and knows the public has a short attention span. I actually expect them to order the -8/-10 after the grounding is lifted. But only for the right price and MRO rights.

Note:. DL might even negotiate in a free CMC upgrade as part of the deal.

Lightsaber


Where exactly does the MAX fit in at DL?

I'm not sure they need it, as long as Airbus keeps giving them good prices on 321NEOs.



The Max 8 slots in between A220-300 and A321/NEO/739.

A321: 192 seats
737-900ER: 180
737-800: 160
A320: 157-160
A319: 132
A220-300: 132(?)
A220-100: 109


I seriously doubt that Airbus, which is busy working on A220 ramp up, A350 ramp up, A32xNEO optimization, winding down A380, working to bring A321XLR to market, working on a MoM/NMA competitor in the background, truly has resources or even a plan to bring an even larger A220 to market at this time. Maybe in 5-7 years they'll do something.
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Bricktop
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Re: Could the A220 take advantage of MAX grounding.

Sun Jul 28, 2019 3:27 pm

Redd wrote:
Bricktop wrote:
You answered your own question.

RandWkop wrote:
One saving Grace for Boeing is the fact that the A320 line is sold out for the next 7 to 8 years with not much hope of a ramp up beyond 70 planes per month.


70 a month is ludicrously out of the question. The entire supply chain would explode. Even 20 a month would be a huge leap.


The 320 is being turned out at 53 airplanes per month, with a goal of 63 in 2021. Not sure where you're getting 20 being a huge leap.

Airbus has been making the A320 family for 30 odd years. They are talking rate 14 by the middle of the next decade for the A22X.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-14/airbus-goes-slow-on-a220-output-as-factories-n%20ear-highest-risk

They have delivered a whopping 78 TOTAL in the life of the program and have a backlog pushing 500. Look, I love the A22X, but really, we need to calm the F down on stuff like this.
 
jayunited
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Re: Could the A220 take advantage of MAX grounding.

Sun Jul 28, 2019 3:32 pm

[quote="lightsaber"
DL is opportunistic and knows the public has a short attention span. I actually expect them to order the -8/-10 after the grounding is lifted. But only for the right price and MRO rights.
Note:. DL might even negotiate in a free CMC upgrade as part of the deal.
Lightsaber[/quote]

I'm not sure I agree. I don't see why DL would operate the MAX10 or MAX8. Instead of the MAX8 DL could just as easily order a combination of A320NEOs and perhaps A220-300s., instead of the MAX10 DL could just order more A321NEOs. I think any deal Boeing would try to cut with DL to get the MAX in their fleet Airbus would simply match it t keep the MAX out of their fleet.
 
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Re: Could the A220 take advantage of MAX grounding.

Sun Jul 28, 2019 4:03 pm

jayunited wrote:
[quote="lightsaber"
DL is opportunistic and knows the public has a short attention span. I actually expect them to order the -8/-10 after the grounding is lifted. But only for the right price and MRO rights.
Note:. DL might even negotiate in a free CMC upgrade as part of the deal.
Lightsaber


I'm not sure I agree. I don't see why DL would operate the MAX10 or MAX8. Instead of the MAX8 DL could just as easily order a combination of A320NEOs and perhaps A220-300s., instead of the MAX10 DL could just order more A321NEOs. I think any deal Boeing would try to cut with DL to get the MAX in their fleet Airbus would simply match it t keep the MAX out of their fleet.[/quote]
Boeing has slots.
Airbus doesn't.

There is a reason we discuss taking the NEO to 70/month. Otherwise, there are few near term slots.

There is little cost to add the MAX for DL and an incredible MRO opportunity. DL doesn't just negotiate as an airline. They negotiate as a system which generates better profit.

I agree they'll take more A220-300.

Why would Airbus match when other airlines would pay $5 to $8 million USD more per A321? That would trigger clauses many airlines put in to receive equivalent deals.

DL is making so much money they should hedge on fuel by buying new (replacing earlier). They will always have a need for a low utilization sub-fleet, but that doesn't mean ignoring an opportunity to buy cheap.

For an order of 100+, commonality doesn't matter. For US domestic oos, the -10 MAX is good enough if sold cheap enough.

Why wouldn't DL add more 737s? They need to buy from both to ensure the greatest MRO rights.

You do realize DL makes good money servicing other airlines engines, right? As does LH, AA, AF, US, and SQ. Part of the purchase decision is the MRO rights. DL has rights to overhaul the PW1500G, PW1100G, Txwb, T7000, CFM-56 (-5:and -7), BMR715, and others. Why wouldn't they add the LEAP?

Now, Airbus/CFM could make an A321 offer. But would they bid as low as restarting -8/-10 sales?

Heck, DL has. HUGE 739 fleet. I flew one earlier this week. They could add the -9 MAX.

I think it more likely than not DL adds the MAX. It could be any size except the -7 IMHO.

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wjcandee
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Re: Could the A220 take advantage of MAX grounding.

Sun Jul 28, 2019 4:21 pm

To put a finer point on Lightsaber's excellent posts: One thing that DL has long understood, while the Wall Street nitwits were preaching "fleet commonality" and limiting the number of models operated, is that standardizing a fleet around a limited number of models necessarily means an increase in aircraft that are non-optimal for the routes they operate on. If you have even 50 of a type on the property (and arguably even less) the marginal benefit of commonality drops to near-zero. I do get the whole "family" argument, but it only goes so far. Delta has long understood that if a particular airframe is better for a significant group of routes for whatever reason, and it can be had at a favorable price, it makes financial sense to fly them.

I remember when "engine commonality" also used to be a big deal. Now, it's essentially-irrelevant. If DL has 5 aircraft with a Pratt XYZ123 on them, but it is refurbing that engine for 20 other airlines, then it barely-matters expense-wise what's hanging on its wings. Better to optimize the engine operationally than to gain the illusory benefits of "standardization". Also, with manufacturers providing all-in maintenance packages, that really takes the load off.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Could the A220 take advantage of MAX grounding.

Sun Jul 28, 2019 6:03 pm

Huh... DL, today, opperates 217 of the 737NG family and 206 of the A320CEO family.

DL has 140 more A321s on order (hundred Pratt NEO). No more 737 on order. A mere twenty A220 flying with 75 more on order.

I agree with wjcandee, it costs little to add a sub-fleet as long as it is a significant sub-fleet. DL only botched the MD-90 by so squeezing engine vendors for overhaul fees that only one renewed the certification. Oops.

For DL, they need to be overhauling a fleet of 150+ narrowbody engines to bring the work in house. As noted, it doesn't matter whose engines as long as the shop is kept busy. They will do that easy on just internal GTFs.

I see an opportunity for the A220, do not get me wrong. I believe the MAX grounding will have Spirit look more seriously at the type. It should also have EasyJet, Cebu Pacific, VietJet, and the Korean LCCs looking.

But as the MD-80 kept rolling off the line well past it's prime, so will the 737. Unfortunately the A220 is just getting into moderate production rates.

But it will make a ramp up further, to say 20/month more plausible.

Lightsaber

Late edit, Wikipedia link on fleet sizing:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delta_Air_Lines_fleet

Huh, first A320 to be retired in 2021 per that table. Hmmm....

2nd late edit:. I see Northwest received a bunch of A319s in 2001/2002:
https://www.airfleets.net/flottecie/Del ... e-a319.htm

It is approaching time for DL to replace those inherited aircraft. As orders/options must be excercised 3 to 4 years prior and accepted over 3 or 4 years too... it is almost time to order say another 60 A220... Hmmmm....
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RandWkop
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Re: Could the A220 take advantage of MAX grounding.

Sun Jul 28, 2019 9:23 pm

mwhcvt wrote:
The A220 is in a fundamentally different section of the market to the MAX with only the barely selling MAX7 just about intersecting with current top end of the A220 family, this is before we even consider that when it comes to capital expenditure by the airlines on aircraft this is a mutli year program, even if the grounding were to run for a full 12 months most customers will still stick with their purchases, as it’s not just aircraft they have invested in, its training not only of pilots and crew, but under the wing too, they have invested in simulators, spares and besides airbus just hasn’t the capacity to deliver alternatives to the MAX be that in the form of A220 or A320N and again as with the airlines and their purchases being something planned over years not months the same goes for any production ramp up as not only would Airbus themselves have to invest in increased FAL capacity and the needed staff and equipment so would every single supplier, and again that takes years from first sign off to extra planes rolling out the door

The only way I see Airbus even contemplating any attempt to win over MAX customers currently hit by the grounding is if somehow it’s eventually discovered that the MAX is fundamentally unfixable forcing Boeing to go back to the drawing board and go clean sheet, but I very much doubt the chances of that happening


The longer range of the MAX is mainly a result of the new Leap engines. The A220 is no slouch in range either. Of the thousands, of MAX planes, on order how many will be used on routes over 2000nm on a regular basis. Probably a few hundred.
You are right that Airbus does not have capacity in the short to medium term. But the current grounding and fallout from it has to be changing thinking in Toulouse.
 
DDR
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Re: Could the A220 take advantage of MAX grounding.

Sun Jul 28, 2019 9:47 pm

What prevents Airbus from opening up a new manufacturing site? Is it because of the supply chain? Seems Airbus could get a lot more orders if they could increase monthly out put.
 
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Re: Could the A220 take advantage of MAX grounding.

Sun Jul 28, 2019 10:07 pm

The A220 could potentially kill the 737-7 MAX. Only one -7 has been built as the test aircraft that will be eventually delivered to WN. The longer the MAX grounding lasts, the further in the future -7's are to be delivered. The production rate cuts will take awhile to make up once the grounding is lifted. Prority for production slots will go to the more profitable per frame models. The longer the -7 isn't flying, the more opportunity for the A220.
 
MR27122
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Re: Could the A220 take advantage of MAX grounding.

Sun Jul 28, 2019 10:27 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Huh... DL, today, opperates 217 of the 737NG family and 206 of the A320CEO family.

DL has 140 more A321s on order (hundred Pratt NEO). No more 737 on order. A mere twenty A220 flying with 75 more on order.

I agree with wjcandee, it costs little to add a sub-fleet as long as it is a significant sub-fleet. DL only botched the MD-90 by so squeezing engine vendors for overhaul fees that only one renewed the certification. Oops.

For DL, they need to be overhauling a fleet of 150+ narrowbody engines to bring the work in house. As noted, it doesn't matter whose engines as long as the shop is kept busy. They will do that easy on just internal GTFs.

I see an opportunity for the A220, do not get me wrong. I believe the MAX grounding will have Spirit look more seriously at the type. It should also have EasyJet, Cebu Pacific, VietJet, and the Korean LCCs looking.

But as the MD-80 kept rolling off the line well past it's prime, so will the 737. Unfortunately the A220 is just getting into moderate production rates.

But it will make a ramp up further, to say 20/month more plausible.

Lightsaber

Late edit, Wikipedia link on fleet sizing:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delta_Air_Lines_fleet

Huh, first A320 to be retired in 2021 per that table. Hmmm....

2nd late edit:. I see Northwest received a bunch of A319s in 2001/2002:
https://www.airfleets.net/flottecie/Del ... e-a319.htm

It is approaching time for DL to replace those inherited aircraft. As orders/options must be excercised 3 to 4 years prior and accepted over 3 or 4 years too... it is almost time to order say another 60 A220... Hmmmm....


My "opinion" of your DL MAX analysis...is WOW (not to be confused w/ a defunct Icelandic airline about to be resurrected by US Investors! :) ). Looking @ what you've suggested from the Boeing "side" truly makes what you've suggested brilliant in my "opinion".

A lot of emphasis has been placed upon branding/brand recognition, etc....Boeing has, correctly, shied away from engaging the MAX re-brand once airborne again....which is wise. Yet, imagine a Jan 1, 2020 "fly by" date (optimistic) coupled with a press release that DL has bought 100 new MAX frames. The "value" of that alone is.....
 
TObound
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Re: Could the A220 take advantage of MAX grounding.

Sun Jul 28, 2019 11:29 pm

Sancho99504 wrote:
TObound wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
DL is opportunistic and knows the public has a short attention span. I actually expect them to order the -8/-10 after the grounding is lifted. But only for the right price and MRO rights.

Note:. DL might even negotiate in a free CMC upgrade as part of the deal.

Lightsaber


Where exactly does the MAX fit in at DL?

I'm not sure they need it, as long as Airbus keeps giving them good prices on 321NEOs.



The Max 8 slots in between A220-300 and A321/NEO/739.

A321: 192 seats
737-900ER: 180
737-800: 160
A320: 157-160
A319: 132
A220-300: 132(?)
A220-100: 109


I seriously doubt that Airbus, which is busy working on A220 ramp up, A350 ramp up, A32xNEO optimization, winding down A380, working to bring A321XLR to market, working on a MoM/NMA competitor in the background, truly has resources or even a plan to bring an even larger A220 to market at this time. Maybe in 5-7 years they'll do something.


I get where it slots in. I'm questioning the need for an aircraft between 130-190 seats.

If a given route has 60 more seats demanded, add another 223 run and open up more seats or upgauge a run to the 321. How many routes do they have where they need the granularity of 20 seat increments? JetBlue is doing the same thing too with the 223 and 321 orders exclusively, going forward.

Lightsaber's take on it being an MRO and timing play makes more sense. And I could see a 739 fitting in as close enough to a 321 on most routes.

My personal bet is that DL takes more 223s and is the launch customer for the NMA and the 225, in the second half of the next decade.
 
LDRA
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Re: Could the A220 take advantage of MAX grounding.

Sun Jul 28, 2019 11:42 pm

A220 will benefit from single type airlines(737 or A32x) wanting to diversify their fleet to mitigate potential grounding of one type and its operational impact
 
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ADent
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Re: Could the A220 take advantage of MAX grounding.

Sun Jul 28, 2019 11:56 pm

DDR wrote:
What prevents Airbus from opening up a new manufacturing site? Is it because of the supply chain? Seems Airbus could get a lot more orders if they could increase monthly out put.


a) They are opening Mobile, AL for a second line (though fairly low rate).

b) IIRC they under invested in the Mirabel production line, so they are working on fixing that up.

c) Airbus needs to renegotiate the contracts to save money. I assume Bombardier off loaded capital costs onto the vendors (to save money during development) and the recurring prices are not the best. Also the vendors took on a lot of risk on shaky program. Now Airbus can come in and guarantee a good rate (10 or 20 per month) and demand a price cut or line up replacement vendors. Takes awhile.

d) Airbus does not own C-Series outright and has to work with Bombardier and the Quebec government on investment. There is a commitment to keep production in Quebec for the next 20 years. So even if Airbus wanted to invest billions in infrastructure to build 40/month B and Q have to match, or agree on changing percentages, or early buyouts. Quebec can be bought out in 3 years and Bombardier in 5 years - but not sure on the pricing.

e) Does Airbus want to invest in this? Sounds like they would do anything needed to get this going, except write a check. I work for a subsidiary of a large company and they are OK with investing the profits from our division into new products, but when it comes to asking the big company to write a check --- no way. If this is true for C-Series then the program has to bootstrap its own investment and 40 planes/month won't be coming soon.

f) See everything Lightsaber has written on this topic.
 
SteelChair
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Re: Could the A220 take advantage of MAX grounding.

Mon Jul 29, 2019 12:01 am

Why would Delta change horses when the Max lost the competition in the first place? It lost before it was grounded, to suggest it has a better chance now seems slightly ridiculous to me.

The mention of 140 321s on order for Delta didn't count the options, thats 100 more. Imho the 737 ship has sailed at Delta. Another 100 321s (on top of the 100 options and the 140 orders),100-150 A220-500s, and perhaps some more A220-300s fills Delta's narrowbdy needs till at least 2026-27.

787-10? Thats another story.
 
TObound
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Re: Could the A220 take advantage of MAX grounding.

Mon Jul 29, 2019 4:36 am

SteelChair wrote:
Why would Delta change horses when the Max lost the competition in the first place? It lost before it was grounded, to suggest it has a better chance now seems slightly ridiculous to me.

The mention of 140 321s on order for Delta didn't count the options, thats 100 more. Imho the 737 ship has sailed at Delta. Another 100 321s (on top of the 100 options and the 140 orders),100-150 A220-500s, and perhaps some more A220-300s fills Delta's narrowbdy needs till at least 2026-27.

787-10? Thats another story.


They've got enough airplanes on order to cover the Mad Dogs, 319 and 320 replacements. Options cover some of the 752 replacement. But they will still need something by the middle of next decade to cover some of the NG fleet
And nobody knows when Airbus will pull the trigger on the 225.
 
Jomar777
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Re: Could the A220 take advantage of MAX grounding.

Mon Jul 29, 2019 8:49 am

Sorry for my sarcasm but I feel that, if one day the B777 gets grounded, there will be people here making the case for the A220 as a replacement somehow (maybe a "A220-900" sort of thing...). Seems we have so many A220 sellers here that i am surprised BBD did not managed to shift enough of of them to keep it as C-Series.

The A220 is a great aricraft albeit recent well publicised glitches here on A.net but will NOT replace the MAX8. The MAX7 is already seeing an impact not from the A220 btu from Boeing pushing the MAX8 more energetically. Still, the MAX7 has to the MAX8 what the A220 does not have even for the A320 - commonality.

Let's add that Airbus is not nearer to provide enough slots to accelerate what is already sold and we can see that the A220 does not have an opportunity here. When Airbus manages to get Mobilo producing, it will be mainly to reduce backlog. As it is now, I would say that Boeing will have better opportunity to setal some orders from the A220 rather than the other way round. The MAX will be back in the skies and, as we can see from IAG, it can still sell. I would be worried for the MAX program when and iff Ryanair starts looking elsewhere - then alarm bells will start ringing and loundly

A220-500? Please - this has already been extensively discussed. It will not happen in its present shape or form. Face it!

Airbus will look at it when it decides, as it willcertianly will, on a replacement or full extensive revamp of the A320 family, where it might add the A220 family into it towards creating something that would offer all the away from the A220-100 to the A321 and I feel this is a long time away. Why create an A220-500 to directly compete witht he A320 eliminating its commonality with the A321? They would dilute their offering against Boeing's B737 and would feel the (negative...) effects.

Boeing will probably do the same (in medium term) with the E2 so that it can offer full options rather than an isolated portfolio.
 
Amiga500
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Re: Could the A220 take advantage of MAX grounding.

Mon Jul 29, 2019 12:08 pm

Bricktop wrote:
Redd wrote:
Bricktop wrote:
You answered your own question.



70 a month is ludicrously out of the question. The entire supply chain would explode. Even 20 a month would be a huge leap.


The 320 is being turned out at 53 airplanes per month, with a goal of 63 in 2021. Not sure where you're getting 20 being a huge leap.

Airbus has been making the A320 family for 30 odd years. They are talking rate 14 by the middle of the next decade for the A22X.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-14/airbus-goes-slow-on-a220-output-as-factories-n%20ear-highest-risk

They have delivered a whopping 78 TOTAL in the life of the program and have a backlog pushing 500. Look, I love the A22X, but really, we need to calm the F down on stuff like this.


I think you are both talking across each other.

One is talking about A320 production rates, the other A220 production rates.
 
Babyshark
Posts: 176
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Re: Could the A220 take advantage of MAX grounding.

Mon Jul 29, 2019 1:24 pm

lightsaber wrote:

Late edit, Wikipedia link on fleet sizing:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delta_Air_Lines_fleet

Huh, first A320 to be retired in 2021 per that table. Hmmm....

2nd late edit:. I see Northwest received a bunch of A319s in 2001/2002:
https://www.airfleets.net/flottecie/Del ... e-a319.htm

It is approaching time for DL to replace those inherited aircraft. As orders/options must be excercised 3 to 4 years prior and accepted over 3 or 4 years too... it is almost time to order say another 60 A220... Hmmmm....


The 88s are now not leaving as fast as planned. The 90s are a mess with their fleet plans because of the engines as you have stated. But we cancelled some pilot displacements off the 88 because we need them to stick around.

The 321Ns need to show up fast and on time for us to park the 88s. We have roughly 140 A321s to go and at times have taken as many as 6 new CEOs in a month. I would love to see the 100 options taken.

The 320 plan is to upgrade the EIS on the 320s and 319s and they stick around for 3 or 4 years at a minimum, even the 1990 models. Not 1990s. I mean 1990 the year.

220s are on a different mission right now centered on RJ replacement.

We basically need every airplane we have. 737s and 320s in our world are young, 319s very young. 739s and 321s are babies in delta world.
Last edited by Babyshark on Mon Jul 29, 2019 1:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Bricktop
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Re: Could the A220 take advantage of MAX grounding.

Mon Jul 29, 2019 1:25 pm

Amiga500 wrote:
Bricktop wrote:
Redd wrote:

The 320 is being turned out at 53 airplanes per month, with a goal of 63 in 2021. Not sure where you're getting 20 being a huge leap.

Airbus has been making the A320 family for 30 odd years. They are talking rate 14 by the middle of the next decade for the A22X.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-14/airbus-goes-slow-on-a220-output-as-factories-n%20ear-highest-risk

They have delivered a whopping 78 TOTAL in the life of the program and have a backlog pushing 500. Look, I love the A22X, but really, we need to calm the F down on stuff like this.


I think you are both talking across each other.

One is talking about A320 production rates, the other A220 production rates.

Not at all. I think his point was if Airbus can make A320s at 60 a month, then why not the A220? Hence my reply about the fallacy.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Could the A220 take advantage of MAX grounding.

Mon Jul 29, 2019 1:35 pm

Babyshark wrote:
lightsaber wrote:

Late edit, Wikipedia link on fleet sizing:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delta_Air_Lines_fleet

Huh, first A320 to be retired in 2021 per that table. Hmmm....

2nd late edit:. I see Northwest received a bunch of A319s in 2001/2002:
https://www.airfleets.net/flottecie/Del ... e-a319.htm

It is approaching time for DL to replace those inherited aircraft. As orders/options must be excercised 3 to 4 years prior and accepted over 3 or 4 years too... it is almost time to order say another 60 A220... Hmmmm....


The 88s are now not leaving as fast as planned. The 90s are a mess with their fleet plans because of the engines as you have stated. But we cancelled some pilot displacements off the 88 because we need them to stick around.

The 321Ns need to show up fast and on time for us to park the 88s. We have roughly 140 A321s to go and at times have taken as many as 6 new CEOs in a month. I would love to see the 100 options taken.

The 320 plan is to upgrade the EIS on the 320s and 319s and they stick around for 3 or 4 years at a minimum, even the 1990 models. Not 1990s. I mean 1990 the year.

220s are on a different mission right now centered on RJ replacement.

We basically need every airplane we have. 737s and 320s in our world are young, 319s very young. 739s and 321s are babies in delta world.

Thanks for the summaries. For the right price, I expect earlier renewal of the A319s/A320s. Saving 25% or so on fuel is most of the purchase price. Maintenance will cover the rest. This is why I am so big on dispatch reliability PiPs.

As to the MD-80, interesting they are getting a small lease on life due to the MD-90 issues noted. DL had a good strategy, there just aren't enough engines to keep 3 shops profitable, so two bowed out. DL wanted two shops and ended up with one. Oops. Not a big deal. They saved more squeezing engine maintenance costs. But it still amuses me for some reason.

I could see DL ordering more A220 Not options, a new order to be placed.

As noted, the will play the engine MRO card for the MAX.

Lightsaber
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
tphuang
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Re: Could the A220 take advantage of MAX grounding.

Mon Jul 29, 2019 1:48 pm

I seriously don't see how A220 will take advantage of this more than any other aircraft? Until they can get A220 production ramped up, are there really that many near term slots to fill MAX clients? Seems like every manufacturer is having issue delivering aircraft these days.
 
FlyHPN
Posts: 73
Joined: Thu Jan 03, 2019 9:15 pm

Re: Could the A220 take advantage of MAX grounding.

Mon Jul 29, 2019 2:24 pm

Babyshark wrote:
lightsaber wrote:

Late edit, Wikipedia link on fleet sizing:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delta_Air_Lines_fleet

Huh, first A320 to be retired in 2021 per that table. Hmmm....

2nd late edit:. I see Northwest received a bunch of A319s in 2001/2002:
https://www.airfleets.net/flottecie/Del ... e-a319.htm

It is approaching time for DL to replace those inherited aircraft. As orders/options must be excercised 3 to 4 years prior and accepted over 3 or 4 years too... it is almost time to order say another 60 A220... Hmmmm....


The 88s are now not leaving as fast as planned. The 90s are a mess with their fleet plans because of the engines as you have stated. But we cancelled some pilot displacements off the 88 because we need them to stick around.

The 321Ns need to show up fast and on time for us to park the 88s. We have roughly 140 A321s to go and at times have taken as many as 6 new CEOs in a month. I would love to see the 100 options taken.

The 320 plan is to upgrade the EIS on the 320s and 319s and they stick around for 3 or 4 years at a minimum, even the 1990 models. Not 1990s. I mean 1990 the year.

220s are on a different mission right now centered on RJ replacement.

We basically need every airplane we have. 737s and 320s in our world are young, 319s very young. 739s and 321s are babies in delta world.

Off topic, but any idea when the first NEOs are expected on site?
 
Babyshark
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Re: Could the A220 take advantage of MAX grounding.

Mon Jul 29, 2019 2:33 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Babyshark wrote:
lightsaber wrote:

Late edit, Wikipedia link on fleet sizing:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delta_Air_Lines_fleet

Huh, first A320 to be retired in 2021 per that table. Hmmm....

2nd late edit:. I see Northwest received a bunch of A319s in 2001/2002:
https://www.airfleets.net/flottecie/Del ... e-a319.htm

It is approaching time for DL to replace those inherited aircraft. As orders/options must be excercised 3 to 4 years prior and accepted over 3 or 4 years too... it is almost time to order say another 60 A220... Hmmmm....


The 88s are now not leaving as fast as planned. The 90s are a mess with their fleet plans because of the engines as you have stated. But we cancelled some pilot displacements off the 88 because we need them to stick around.

The 321Ns need to show up fast and on time for us to park the 88s. We have roughly 140 A321s to go and at times have taken as many as 6 new CEOs in a month. I would love to see the 100 options taken.

The 320 plan is to upgrade the EIS on the 320s and 319s and they stick around for 3 or 4 years at a minimum, even the 1990 models. Not 1990s. I mean 1990 the year.

220s are on a different mission right now centered on RJ replacement.

We basically need every airplane we have. 737s and 320s in our world are young, 319s very young. 739s and 321s are babies in delta world.

Thanks for the summaries. For the right price, I expect earlier renewal of the A319s/A320s. Saving 25% or so on fuel is most of the purchase price. Maintenance will cover the rest. This is why I am so big on dispatch reliability PiPs.

As to the MD-80, interesting they are getting a small lease on life due to the MD-90 issues noted. DL had a good strategy, there just aren't enough engines to keep 3 shops profitable, so two bowed out. DL wanted two shops and ended up with one. Oops. Not a big deal. They saved more squeezing engine maintenance costs. But it still amuses me for some reason.

I could see DL ordering more A220 Not options, a new order to be placed.

As noted, the will play the engine MRO card for the MAX.

Lightsaber


Is that shop in Austrailia? Heard that once but I dont pay much attention to that fleet but that's not a great option.

From my pov the 321N options hopefully will come very soon. The one thing about upgauging is we run a smoother operation. The 220 does or will do that against the RJs and 321s against the 88s this summer.

When I flew the 88 we would go to DCA hourly and struggle to deal with gate availability. The 321 cuts frequency a bit but keeps capacity the samei-sh and we never have a gate issue. The 321s however can turn right around after 88 runs and operate all night as they do a lot of LAX, LAS, SAN flying to all the hubs. Lots of 321s in those airports especially SAN.

The 321Ns will do Hawaii and 757 type flying but they can still do the short 88 stuff. But gate space in places like LAX, SAN in the evenings, DCA, BOS, etc, the bigger jet and less frequency helps us run smoother and faster. Even LGA.

I guess that's what SWA might be doing as well with 738 and Max. Maybe a reason why the 220 isnt right for Max replacement but ideal for 76 seater replacement and a reason Delta did so many 221s even the recent additions. It's also a QC issue over the multiple connection carriers. Something that evidently doesnt bother United hence no 220 or E190 order. United likes the RJ whipsaw, probably saves them money if you only look at one part of the equation. The other part of the equation is while the 220 will cost more than DCI 76 seater, would it make you more?

Delta loves that margin trumps all stuff.
Last edited by Babyshark on Mon Jul 29, 2019 2:44 pm, edited 4 times in total.
 
Babyshark
Posts: 176
Joined: Mon Oct 29, 2018 4:48 pm

Re: Could the A220 take advantage of MAX grounding.

Mon Jul 29, 2019 2:35 pm

FlyHPN wrote:
Babyshark wrote:
lightsaber wrote:

Late edit, Wikipedia link on fleet sizing:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delta_Air_Lines_fleet

Huh, first A320 to be retired in 2021 per that table. Hmmm....

2nd late edit:. I see Northwest received a bunch of A319s in 2001/2002:
https://www.airfleets.net/flottecie/Del ... e-a319.htm

It is approaching time for DL to replace those inherited aircraft. As orders/options must be excercised 3 to 4 years prior and accepted over 3 or 4 years too... it is almost time to order say another 60 A220... Hmmmm....


The 88s are now not leaving as fast as planned. The 90s are a mess with their fleet plans because of the engines as you have stated. But we cancelled some pilot displacements off the 88 because we need them to stick around.

The 321Ns need to show up fast and on time for us to park the 88s. We have roughly 140 A321s to go and at times have taken as many as 6 new CEOs in a month. I would love to see the 100 options taken.

The 320 plan is to upgrade the EIS on the 320s and 319s and they stick around for 3 or 4 years at a minimum, even the 1990 models. Not 1990s. I mean 1990 the year.

220s are on a different mission right now centered on RJ replacement.

We basically need every airplane we have. 737s and 320s in our world are young, 319s very young. 739s and 321s are babies in delta world.

Off topic, but any idea when the first NEOs are expected on site?


March 2020... standby for... updates. Opening LAX pilot base right now. SEA to come. In Delta nb world that means a lot. Originally 19 in 2020.
 
TObound
Posts: 309
Joined: Mon May 27, 2019 12:54 am

Re: Could the A220 take advantage of MAX grounding.

Mon Jul 29, 2019 3:01 pm

lightsaber wrote:
For the right price, I expect earlier renewal of the A319s/A320s. Saving 25% or so on fuel is most of the purchase price. Maintenance will cover the rest.


This. A.net gets way too fixated on aircraft age.

DL got such a fantastic deal that these airplanes are effectively paying for themselves. While probably helping DL grow marketshare and boost yield.

I really hope/exoect DL orders another 100+ 220s, and pulls the trigger on those 321N options in the next 2-3 years. Delta is really showcasing what the 220 and 321N can do for a large network carrier.
 
Redd
Posts: 984
Joined: Mon Jan 07, 2013 3:40 am

Re: Could the A220 take advantage of MAX grounding.

Mon Jul 29, 2019 8:24 pm

Bricktop wrote:
Amiga500 wrote:
Bricktop wrote:
Airbus has been making the A320 family for 30 odd years. They are talking rate 14 by the middle of the next decade for the A22X.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-14/airbus-goes-slow-on-a220-output-as-factories-n%20ear-highest-risk

They have delivered a whopping 78 TOTAL in the life of the program and have a backlog pushing 500. Look, I love the A22X, but really, we need to calm the F down on stuff like this.


I think you are both talking across each other.

One is talking about A320 production rates, the other A220 production rates.

Not at all. I think his point was if Airbus can make A320s at 60 a month, then why not the A220? Hence my reply about the fallacy.


No, that was not my point at all.
 
TC957
Posts: 3482
Joined: Wed May 23, 2012 1:12 pm

Re: Could the A220 take advantage of MAX grounding.

Mon Jul 29, 2019 8:34 pm

With the benefit of hindsight, had Bombardier developed a CS500 alongside the other two models and not been in such a financial pickle all along, then I'm sure they'd reap the benefits of the 737MAX's troubles now. Too late now me thinks.
 
Amiga500
Posts: 2294
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Re: Could the A220 take advantage of MAX grounding.

Mon Jul 29, 2019 9:46 pm

TC957 wrote:
With the benefit of hindsight, had Bombardier developed a CS500 alongside the other two models and not been in such a financial pickle all along, then I'm sure they'd reap the benefits of the 737MAX's troubles now. Too late now me thinks.


Hindsight?

The minute they decided to go with CS100 first in 2009 I knew they'd f**ked up badly - the Lear85 put the icing on that particular cake.

Everything that followed from the decision to go CS100 first made things more difficult, both for engineering and for marketing.

If the CS300 had been the engineering baseline, then producing the CS100 would have been much simpler (than the process that did have to be stepped through in the end). It would also have meant they could have pivoted early in the day to either CS100 or CS500, depending on which way the market was blowing.

Given the neo was launched Dec 2010 and the MAX in July 2011, it would have been quite clear prior to early 2011 that the market wanted a viable next-gen replacement for their 160-180 seat single aisles. The CS500 could have been that replacement and BBD could have been sitting with a big enough order book to allow them to get finance at good market rates rather than face death prior to the Airbus sell out.


Bombardier could have been a third big player, but made far too many missteps in the boardroom (even going as far back as the CRJ1000) that a company of that size simply could not absorb.
 
FlyHPN
Posts: 73
Joined: Thu Jan 03, 2019 9:15 pm

Re: Could the A220 take advantage of MAX grounding.

Mon Jul 29, 2019 9:51 pm

Babyshark wrote:
FlyHPN wrote:
Babyshark wrote:

The 88s are now not leaving as fast as planned. The 90s are a mess with their fleet plans because of the engines as you have stated. But we cancelled some pilot displacements off the 88 because we need them to stick around.

The 321Ns need to show up fast and on time for us to park the 88s. We have roughly 140 A321s to go and at times have taken as many as 6 new CEOs in a month. I would love to see the 100 options taken.

The 320 plan is to upgrade the EIS on the 320s and 319s and they stick around for 3 or 4 years at a minimum, even the 1990 models. Not 1990s. I mean 1990 the year.

220s are on a different mission right now centered on RJ replacement.

We basically need every airplane we have. 737s and 320s in our world are young, 319s very young. 739s and 321s are babies in delta world.

Off topic, but any idea when the first NEOs are expected on site?


March 2020... standby for... updates. Opening LAX pilot base right now. SEA to come. In Delta nb world that means a lot. Originally 19 in 2020.

Thanks for your insight!
 
Bricktop
Posts: 1375
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2016 11:04 am

Re: Could the A220 take advantage of MAX grounding.

Mon Jul 29, 2019 11:23 pm

Redd wrote:
Bricktop wrote:
Amiga500 wrote:

I think you are both talking across each other.

One is talking about A320 production rates, the other A220 production rates.

Not at all. I think his point was if Airbus can make A320s at 60 a month, then why not the A220? Hence my reply about the fallacy.


No, that was not my point at all.

Begs the question....
 
strfyr51
Posts: 3886
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2012 5:04 pm

Re: Could the A220 take advantage of MAX grounding.

Mon Jul 29, 2019 11:34 pm

of Course it can However? Who with a Max is going to give it away just to have an A220? This will not last forever and Boeing will have a big enough "Black Eye" when this is over. They might even discount the MAX just to annoy Airbus..

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