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PacoMartin
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Re: Could the A220 take advantage of MAX grounding.

Tue Jul 30, 2019 1:00 am

RandWkop wrote:
Please discuss or deride as you see fit.

I think if there is a third MAX crash then every possible plane in existence will see some increased sales.

Other than such an extreme motivator, I would say that the A220 will not benefit.
 
Redd
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Re: Could the A220 take advantage of MAX grounding.

Tue Jul 30, 2019 6:17 am

Bricktop wrote:
Redd wrote:
Bricktop wrote:
Not at all. I think his point was if Airbus can make A320s at 60 a month, then why not the A220? Hence my reply about the fallacy.


No, that was not my point at all.

Begs the question....



Read my original response about A320 production. The post you responded to, then, in turn, I responded to you, there was no speak of the A220. You just nudged that in there later and continued some narrative..
 
Bricktop
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Re: Could the A220 take advantage of MAX grounding.

Tue Jul 30, 2019 11:28 am

Redd wrote:
Bricktop wrote:
Redd wrote:

No, that was not my point at all.

Begs the question....



Read my original response about A320 production. The post you responded to, then, in turn, I responded to you, there was no speak of the A220. You just nudged that in there later and continued some narrative..

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Your original response, in context, highlighting by me.

Redd wrote:
Bricktop wrote:
You answered your own question.

RandWkop wrote:
One saving Grace for Boeing is the fact that the A320 line is sold out for the next 7 to 8 years with not much hope of a ramp up beyond 70 planes per month.


70 a month is ludicrously out of the question. The entire supply chain would explode. Even 20 a month would be a huge leap.


The 320 is being turned out at 53 airplanes per month, with a goal of 63 in 2021. Not sure where you're getting 20 being a huge leap.


We aren't talking about whether the A320 will benefit. :roll: Can Airbus take the A320 to rate 70? Probably, though even that won't be a cake walk.
But I do concede it was presumptuous of me to think you were talking about the A220 in a A220 thread.

I cut and paste my on topic reply, Airbus has been making the A320 family for 30 odd years. They [Airbus] are talking rate 14 by the middle of the next decade for the A22X.
They [BBD and Airbus] have delivered a whopping 78 TOTAL in the life of the program and have a backlog pushing 500.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Could the A220 take advantage of MAX grounding.

Tue Jul 30, 2019 11:40 am

Amiga500 wrote:
The minute they decided to go with CS100 first in 2009 I knew they'd f**ked up badly - the Lear85 put the icing on that particular cake.

Everything that followed from the decision to go CS100 first made things more difficult, both for engineering and for marketing.

I remember reading about this in the AvWeeks of the time.

It seemed to me that BBD was like many others hoping that the US pilot's unions would grant scope relief and wanted to start with the smaller products and grow as more scope relief was negotiated.

They didn't want to scare off the unions by going for the middle of the market then being able to move right up to the next rung.

They also didn't want to make A or B feel threatened.

At least this is my impression of what I read at the time.

In perfect hindsight I wonder if they war-gamed a scenario where there was no scope relief and things rolled out the way they have, namely launching with several non-US airlines to get the product into the field, and then getting DL to sign on without scope relief.

I think things like the half bankruptcy that led to Airbus gaining a controlling interest and the big Moxy order would have been very speculative at best, but then again getting DL to place a big order would have been quite speculative as well?

Yet I think the lack of scope relief was not speculative so some sort of planning should have been done assuming no scope relief.
Last edited by Revelation on Tue Jul 30, 2019 11:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Amiga500
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Re: Could the A220 take advantage of MAX grounding.

Tue Jul 30, 2019 11:44 am

Agreed, that probably was a mindset, but BBD announced in 2009 that the CS300 was going to follow the CS100 only a year later.

The union officials would have to be some special kind of idiots to think that things would definitely stop there (if scope had been released and the program raked in orders).

If this was their best effort at war-gaming, then I think they must have been the weaklings you crush at the start of every Civ you play.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Could the A220 take advantage of MAX grounding.

Tue Jul 30, 2019 12:03 pm

Amiga500 wrote:
Agreed, that probably was a mindset, but BBD announced in 2009 that the CS300 was going to follow the CS100 only a year later.

The union officials would have to be some special kind of idiots to think that things would definitely stop there (if scope had been released and the program raked in orders).

If this was their best effort at war-gaming, then I think they must have been the weaklings you crush at the start of every Civ you play.

LOL, yes, definitely a war-gaming fail.

But do you recall if any idea of a US3 order without scope relief was on anyone's radar?

In perfect hindsight DL's traditional use of smaller DC9s/MDXXs in mainline should have been a strong hint that DL could be had, but I don't recall any talk of such.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
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Amiga500
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Re: Could the A220 take advantage of MAX grounding.

Tue Jul 30, 2019 12:12 pm

Revelation wrote:
But do you recall if any idea of a US3 order without scope relief was on anyone's radar?


Nothing comes to mind, but then, I can barely remember what I was working on last week never mind the goings on 10 years ago!


You'd have thought the spectacular failure to place the CRJ1000 with any US airlines - especially in comparison to the CRJ900 - would have been warning enough.

Yes, the CRJ1000 was only in flight testing in 2009, but the market reception should have been very clear by then to aircraft beyond scope.


edit: I suppose you did have Republic's (Frontier) order for CS300. A look at Frontier's current fleet shows its all A32x - so assuming the separation from Republic didn't change much then would that really have been a "scope creep" order?
 
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Revelation
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Re: Could the A220 take advantage of MAX grounding.

Tue Jul 30, 2019 12:39 pm

Amiga500 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
But do you recall if any idea of a US3 order without scope relief was on anyone's radar?


Nothing comes to mind, but then, I can barely remember what I was working on last week never mind the goings on 10 years ago!


You'd have thought the spectacular failure to place the CRJ1000 with any US airlines - especially in comparison to the CRJ900 - would have been warning enough.

Yes, the CRJ1000 was only in flight testing in 2009, but the market reception should have been very clear by then to aircraft beyond scope.


edit: I suppose you did have Republic's (Frontier) order for CS300. A look at Frontier's current fleet shows its all A32x - so assuming the separation from Republic didn't change much then would that really have been a "scope creep" order?

Great points.

My memories are also distant, shaped by reading AvWeeks a decade ago.

It's kind of strange that the one US3 airline that eventually chose to order CS without scope relief didn't seem to be on anyone's radar.

The whole sequence of events (DL order, Boeing tries and fails to block via WTO, Airbus partnership ensues, the heros ride off into the sunset) is probably one of the biggest dramas in the commercial aviation space we've seen.

The other one that pops to mind (BBD chooses GTF for CS, Airbus responds by launching NEO, Boeing responds (too?) swiftly with MAX, MCAS design bungled, two crashes, caskets lowered in to the ground) is probably one of the biggest tragedies in the commercial aviation space we've seen.

Very interesting how BBD/CS is at the nexus of both.

Also interesting how after all this BBD exits the commercial airliner space losing more money than its remaining share of CSALP could ever feasibly pay back.

But of course there could be yet another plot twist?

Seems like a good book or two based on these and more parallel themes awaits.
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MIflyer12
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Re: Could the A220 take advantage of MAX grounding.

Tue Jul 30, 2019 12:51 pm

Revelation wrote:
In perfect hindsight DL's traditional use of smaller DC9s/MDXXs in mainline should have been a strong hint that DL could be had, but I don't recall any talk of such.


The use of DC-9s in modern mainline was a pre-merger NW thing. DL had dumped its own DC-9s (with some going to ValuJet) ~15 years before the 2008 merger. 717s were a weird transaction - WN desperate enough to make them go away to spend $160 million to convert them to DL spec, and DL assuming the Boeing Capital leases. IMHO neither of those facts are strong hints to propensity for small mainline at DL. DL has given up a lot of destinations to be able to park many CR2s and all E145s.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Could the A220 take advantage of MAX grounding.

Tue Jul 30, 2019 1:57 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
In perfect hindsight DL's traditional use of smaller DC9s/MDXXs in mainline should have been a strong hint that DL could be had, but I don't recall any talk of such.


The use of DC-9s in modern mainline was a pre-merger NW thing. DL had dumped its own DC-9s (with some going to ValuJet) ~15 years before the 2008 merger. 717s were a weird transaction - WN desperate enough to make them go away to spend $160 million to convert them to DL spec, and DL assuming the Boeing Capital leases. IMHO neither of those facts are strong hints to propensity for small mainline at DL. DL has given up a lot of destinations to be able to park many CR2s and all E145s.

Thanks for the recollections and the insights.

If one could say the 717 transaction was a case of DL taking advantage of a great opportunity, couldn't one see the CS transaction the same way?

Clearly the CS program and BBD itself was on the ropes at the time, so DL had massive leverage at the bargaining table.

The DL deal really gave hope for the future of the program, but the cracking deal BBD had to give to DL in order to gain the order also made it an imperative for BBD to get someone to buy the program off of them.
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Redd
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Re: Could the A220 take advantage of MAX grounding.

Tue Jul 30, 2019 1:59 pm

Bricktop wrote:
Your original response, in context, highlighting by me.




I'm really not seeing where and how we're missing each other's points here. Best to leave it at an agree to disagree.
 
Bricktop
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Re: Could the A220 take advantage of MAX grounding.

Tue Jul 30, 2019 5:21 pm

Redd wrote:
Bricktop wrote:
Your original response, in context, highlighting by me.




I'm really not seeing where and how we're missing each other's points here. Best to leave it at an agree to disagree.

I agree. ;) Unless you're saying that the A22X can take advantage of the MAX grounding that is. :D
 
Bricktop
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Re: Could the A220 take advantage of MAX grounding.

Tue Jul 30, 2019 5:32 pm

Add in today's AF order for the A223 (and conrgats on that) and there's NFW anyone who wants to replace the MAX with the A22X will be looking at getting their paws on them soon. AF starts in September 2021.
 
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Taxi645
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Re: Could the A220 take advantage of MAX grounding.

Tue Jul 30, 2019 9:03 pm

I wonder if PW would be able to deliver enough engines if Airbus REALLY cranks up production rates of the A220 or if they need RR in that game sooner rather than later.
Innovation is seeing opportunity before obstacle.
 
FLALEFTY
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Re: Could the A220 take advantage of MAX grounding.

Tue Jul 30, 2019 10:18 pm

Bricktop wrote:
Add in today's AF order for the A223 (and conrgats on that) and there's NFW anyone who wants to replace the MAX with the A22X will be looking at getting their paws on them soon. AF starts in September 2021.


This would be generally true. There are only around 60 MAX7's on order and most of them (those for Southwest & Westjet) have had their their deliveries deferred until later in the 2020's. Plus, the Airbus Mobile A220 FAL will not be up until 2020 and even then it will take it a couple of years to reach optimal capacity. Also, the A225 is still a design proposal and has not yet received a program launch.

The impression I get with the recent Air France A220 MOU is that the airline had probably been in talks with Airbus prior to the MAX troubles. Also, AF had an established need for a plane in the 100-140 passenger capacity range and was probably looking for something bigger than the A318, but lighter than the A319, thus the A223 proved to be the right fit. The Boeing 737 MAX7 and the A319NEO were likely seen by AF as being too heavy and were probably eliminated early in the RFP process.
 
TObound
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Re: Could the A220 take advantage of MAX grounding.

Tue Jul 30, 2019 10:31 pm

I honestly wonder what it would take to get Southwest to consider the 220. If Airbus went to them with a fantastic price, offered to make them the 225 launch customer and/or gave them exclusivity in the US for at least half a decade, while ramping up to deliver them all the frames they need over 10-15 years, would they still say no?

The Max-7 can't be that great. And there's gotta be plenty of routes where the Max-8 is just too much airplane.
 
T4thH
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Re: Could the A220 take advantage of MAX grounding.

Tue Jul 30, 2019 10:39 pm

TObound wrote:
I honestly wonder what it would take to get Southwest to consider the 220. If Airbus went to them with a fantastic price, offered to make them the 225 launch customer and/or gave them exclusivity in the US for at least half a decade, while ramping up to deliver them all the frames they need over 10-15 years, would they still say no?

The Max-7 can't be that great. And there's gotta be plenty of routes where the Max-8 is just too much airplane.

Never. Soutwest has an agreement, that they will always get the best price. But they have to buy B737.
if they will buy something else/an Airbus, they will not get any more the best price.
OK, of course, the B737 story will end and Boeing will start to develop an replacement, but not now and also not soon
 
WayexTDI
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Re: Could the A220 take advantage of MAX grounding.

Tue Jul 30, 2019 11:07 pm

T4thH wrote:
TObound wrote:
I honestly wonder what it would take to get Southwest to consider the 220. If Airbus went to them with a fantastic price, offered to make them the 225 launch customer and/or gave them exclusivity in the US for at least half a decade, while ramping up to deliver them all the frames they need over 10-15 years, would they still say no?

The Max-7 can't be that great. And there's gotta be plenty of routes where the Max-8 is just too much airplane.

Never. Soutwest has an agreement, that they will always get the best price. But they have to buy B737.
if they will buy something else/an Airbus, they will not get any more the best price.
OK, of course, the B737 story will end and Boeing will start to develop an replacement, but not now and also not soon

There are a few words to never use when discussing about companies; and NEVER is one of them.
As you said, WN will have at some point to consider a replacement for the 737; at least when Boeing stops building them. But it could happen sooner if Airbus finds a way in WN, or if WN gets pissed off at Boeing.

Again, never say "never"...
 
TObound
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Re: Could the A220 take advantage of MAX grounding.

Wed Jul 31, 2019 1:00 am

T4thH wrote:
TObound wrote:
I honestly wonder what it would take to get Southwest to consider the 220. If Airbus went to them with a fantastic price, offered to make them the 225 launch customer and/or gave them exclusivity in the US for at least half a decade, while ramping up to deliver them all the frames they need over 10-15 years, would they still say no?

The Max-7 can't be that great. And there's gotta be plenty of routes where the Max-8 is just too much airplane.

Never. Soutwest has an agreement, that they will always get the best price. But they have to buy B737.
if they will buy something else/an Airbus, they will not get any more the best price.
OK, of course, the B737 story will end and Boeing will start to develop an replacement, but not now and also not soon


Yet, cost of new aircraft is a fraction of aircraft lifecycle costs. Will they keep buying 737s, if the aircraft aren't competitive for them?

I have my doubts that the gentleman's agreement is as impactful as the fact that they are the largest narrowbody operator in the world. That's a lot of leverage.

It'll be interesting to see what Moxy does to them with the 223. And if Airbus ever does the 225, their competitors will use it to savage Southwest.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Could the A220 take advantage of MAX grounding.

Wed Jul 31, 2019 2:19 am

DDR wrote:
What prevents Airbus from opening up a new manufacturing site?

Billions of dollars of initial investment, before they ever see a cent of return... for one thing.





SteelChair wrote:
Why would Delta change horses when the Max lost the competition in the first place?

787-10? Thats another story.

Agree on both points.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
T4thH
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Re: Could the A220 take advantage of MAX grounding.

Wed Jul 31, 2019 11:21 am

LAX772LR wrote:
DDR wrote:
What prevents Airbus from opening up a new manufacturing site?

Billions of dollars of initial investment, before they ever see a cent of return... for one thing.





SteelChair wrote:
Why would Delta change horses when the Max lost the competition in the first place?

787-10? Thats another story.

Agree on both points.


By luck a FAL is not so expensive. It seems to be something like around 300 million $ for the Mobile FALs (if I remember correctly). The bigger FALs are little bit more expensive, still it is less than one billion.. To increase the production by implementing an additional FAL, the vendors like PW, Leonardo, Liebherr, e.g. have to be able to also increase their production lines. Especially the jet engine producer are completely sold out and not able to increase the production of jet engines e.g. in even middle to long term. Also the cabin fit out companies have reached or even overstressed (as especially seen at the A350) their capacities.
 
Sancho99504
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Re: Could the A220 take advantage of MAX grounding.

Wed Aug 07, 2019 5:35 pm

TObound wrote:
Sancho99504 wrote:
TObound wrote:

Where exactly does the MAX fit in at DL?

I'm not sure they need it, as long as Airbus keeps giving them good prices on 321NEOs.



The Max 8 slots in between A220-300 and A321/NEO/739.

A321: 192 seats
737-900ER: 180
737-800: 160
A320: 157-160
A319: 132
A220-300: 132(?)
A220-100: 109


I seriously doubt that Airbus, which is busy working on A220 ramp up, A350 ramp up, A32xNEO optimization, winding down A380, working to bring A321XLR to market, working on a MoM/NMA competitor in the background, truly has resources or even a plan to bring an even larger A220 to market at this time. Maybe in 5-7 years they'll do something.


I get where it slots in. I'm questioning the need for an aircraft between 130-190 seats.

If a given route has 60 more seats demanded, add another 223 run and open up more seats or upgauge a run to the 321. How many routes do they have where they need the granularity of 20 seat increments? JetBlue is doing the same thing too with the 223 and 321 orders exclusively, going forward.

Lightsaber's take on it being an MRO and timing play makes more sense. And I could see a 739 fitting in as close enough to a 321 on most routes.

My personal bet is that DL takes more 223s and is the launch customer for the NMA and the 225, in the second half of the next decade.



Delta has done an exceptional job of matching capacity to demand. They have been able to do that by having a rather diverse cabin-size fleet. If they eliminate everything between A223 and A321, they will lose a tremendous amount of flexibility. They cannot upgauge city pairs and trim frequencies as they are business-centric and they demand and pay for frequency.

jetBlue can get away with A223 and A321 since they're leisure focused and they demand low fares over frequency.
kill 'em all and let God sort 'em out-USMC

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