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(Rumor) FI not returning to MCI in 2020?

Posted: Tue Jul 30, 2019 4:00 pm
by trexel94
There is a rumor circulating from a local travel agent that FI will be permanently ending MCI-KEF service once the 2019 schedule concludes.

If true, then i'm disappointed as I was under the impression the route was doing ok or at least would maintain a simple seasonal schedule. But to be honest the service really didn't solve a problem. Most KC passengers are not going to KEF so a connection is still required and business travelers have accounts with legacy carriers. So that just leaves price sensitive occasional tourists. IMO not the most reliable or profitable market. However, according to recent load factors, if the MAX were still in service then it may have been viable. Perhaps the service will return once the MAX is back?

With FI potentially leaving the market will this kill MCI's chances of attracting a new carrier?

TATL PDEW from MCI is over 370 so demand is obviously there. Perhaps FI just wasn't the best fit. Any chance MCI could interest BA, Condor, DL or even Aer Lingus (not sure if the A321NEO has the range)? Cerner and Garmin alone could probably fill the premium cabin. If IND and CVG have service then why not KC? FI may have failed but i'm willing to bet MCI-LHR, FRA or AMS would do better.

What are your thoughts?

Re: (Rumor) FI not returning to MCI in 2020?

Posted: Tue Jul 30, 2019 4:02 pm
by Ishrion
Wouldn’t be surprised... honestly didn’t expect that route to last long, and depending on how long the MAX groundings continue, they may need the spare 757s.

Re: (Rumor) FI not returning to MCI in 2020?

Posted: Tue Jul 30, 2019 4:16 pm
by Midwestindy
trexel94 wrote:
TATL PDEW from MCI is over 370 so demand is obviously there. Perhaps FI just wasn't the best fit. Any chance MCI could interest BA, Condor, DL or even Aer Lingus (not sure if the A321NEO has the range)? Cerner and Garmin alone could probably fill the premium cabin. If IND and CVG have service then why not KC? FI may have failed but i'm willing to bet MCI-LHR, FRA or AMS would do better.

What are your thoughts?


IND: HQ for Eli Lilly, NA HQ for Roche Diagnostics, Largest production center in the world for Rolls Royce, and a sizable amount of other multinational companies have their NA HQ, HQ, or large facilities in the area.

CVG: HQ for P&G, HQ for GE Aviation and the GE Global Ops Center, and also has a sizable amount of other multinational companies in the area.


That should explain why

Re: (Rumor) FI not returning to MCI in 2020?

Posted: Tue Jul 30, 2019 4:29 pm
by sw733
I would be sad to see it go, but would not be surprised. I do think a MAX could see the route coming back, but I agree that 752 could be better used 4x weekly somewhere else. I hope I am wrong and see it come back, as I do know it has opened the door for many of my fellow Kansas Citians to get to Iceland and Europe.

Re: (Rumor) FI not returning to MCI in 2020?

Posted: Tue Jul 30, 2019 4:29 pm
by MIflyer12
trexel94 wrote:
There is a rumor circulating from a local travel agent that FI will be permanently ending MCI-KEF service once the 2019 schedule concludes.

If true, then i'm disappointed as I was under the impression the route was doing ok or at least would maintain a simple seasonal schedule. But to be honest the service really didn't solve a problem. Most KC passengers are not going to KEF so a connection is still required and business travelers have accounts with legacy carriers. So that just leaves price sensitive occasional tourists. IMO not the most reliable or profitable market. However, according to recent load factors, if the MAX were still in service then it may have been viable. Perhaps the service will return once the MAX is back?

With FI potentially leaving the market will this kill MCI's chances of attracting a new carrier?

TATL PDEW from MCI is over 370 so demand is obviously there. Perhaps FI just wasn't the best fit. Any chance MCI could interest BA, Condor, DL or even Aer Lingus (not sure if the A321NEO has the range)? Cerner and Garmin alone could probably fill the premium cabin. If IND and CVG have service then why not KC? FI may have failed but i'm willing to bet MCI-LHR, FRA or AMS would do better.

What are your thoughts?


What (reliable) source would a local travel agent have?

trexel94 wrote:

TATL PDEW from MCI is over 370 so demand is obviously there.


Success is not exclusively a function of PDEW - to what places across Europe are those passengers traveling? A few are going to ATH but a MCI-ATH flight would be economic suicide with trivial O&D and overflying of the most popular destinations. What are the avg fares that gave a PDEW of 370K, and are those attractive to a full-line carrier? IMHO, BA to LHR or DL to CDG/AMS would be the very best options in terms of O&D demand plus connectivity.

Re: (Rumor) FI not returning to MCI in 2020?

Posted: Tue Jul 30, 2019 4:34 pm
by blhp68
Midwestindy wrote:
trexel94 wrote:
TATL PDEW from MCI is over 370 so demand is obviously there. Perhaps FI just wasn't the best fit. Any chance MCI could interest BA, Condor, DL or even Aer Lingus (not sure if the A321NEO has the range)? Cerner and Garmin alone could probably fill the premium cabin. If IND and CVG have service then why not KC? FI may have failed but i'm willing to bet MCI-LHR, FRA or AMS would do better.

What are your thoughts?


IND: HQ for Eli Lilly, NA HQ for Roche Diagnostics, Largest production center in the world for Rolls Royce, and a sizable amount of other multinational companies have their NA HQ, HQ, or large facilities in the area.

CVG: HQ for P&G, HQ for GE Aviation and the GE Global Ops Center, and also has a sizable amount of other multinational companies in the area.


That should explain why


Subsidy in KC also ran out this year.

Re: (Rumor) FI not returning to MCI in 2020?

Posted: Tue Jul 30, 2019 4:35 pm
by 737max8
Friend flew KEF-MCI last week and said everyone had their own row...can't be doing too well if that's the case in the middle of American summer.

Re: (Rumor) FI not returning to MCI in 2020?

Posted: Tue Jul 30, 2019 5:12 pm
by Midwestindy
blhp68 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
trexel94 wrote:
TATL PDEW from MCI is over 370 so demand is obviously there. Perhaps FI just wasn't the best fit. Any chance MCI could interest BA, Condor, DL or even Aer Lingus (not sure if the A321NEO has the range)? Cerner and Garmin alone could probably fill the premium cabin. If IND and CVG have service then why not KC? FI may have failed but i'm willing to bet MCI-LHR, FRA or AMS would do better.

What are your thoughts?


IND: HQ for Eli Lilly, NA HQ for Roche Diagnostics, Largest production center in the world for Rolls Royce, and a sizable amount of other multinational companies have their NA HQ, HQ, or large facilities in the area.

CVG: HQ for P&G, HQ for GE Aviation and the GE Global Ops Center, and also has a sizable amount of other multinational companies in the area.


That should explain why


Subsidy in KC also ran out this year.


Hasn't ran out yet

"KCI and Kansas City business organizations offered Icelandair incentives to help persuade the airline to commit to the new route. KCI agreed to waive landing and airport usage fees for two years that it otherwise charges other airlines to Icelandair. KCI will also award $250,000 to Icelandair for each of the next two years to market the route in Kansas City and to promote Kansas City in Europe."

https://onemileatatime.com/icelandair-kansas-city/

Subsidy runs out at the end of this summers season.

Re: (Rumor) FI not returning to MCI in 2020?

Posted: Tue Jul 30, 2019 5:45 pm
by dfwjim1
KMCI will probably always have issues attracting a TATL carriers as there are so many options to connect on the way to Europe such as ORD, YYZ, NYC, PHL and others.

Re: (Rumor) FI not returning to MCI in 2020?

Posted: Tue Jul 30, 2019 7:50 pm
by enilria
MIflyer12 wrote:
What (reliable) source would a local travel agent have?

Let's start here. I agree. I'm not sure this is based on much. I thought CLE would not come back and it is returning.
Ishrion wrote:
Wouldn’t be surprised... honestly didn’t expect that route to last long, and depending on how long the MAX groundings continue, they may need the spare 757s.

737max8 wrote:
Friend flew KEF-MCI last week and said everyone had their own row...can't be doing too well if that's the case in the middle of American summer.

So the 737MAX situation is definitely a big factor here. The LFs looked poor last year. Any time you use a bigger plane than planned it hurts performance. It would really come down to whether FI would bridge the losses with the hope the MAX will fly next Summer. The 757 is apparently too big for the market. In CLE FI just took a year off, but will return as long as the MAX flies. So this would be the opposite if this isn't a rumor. Definitely not a consistent strategy if it plays out that way.

Using the airport stats they had an outbound LF 89% in May and 79% in June. Those are pretty good. June is a little low, but not too bad. If July didn't fall further I'd be surprised if they left.
trexel94 wrote:
With FI potentially leaving the market will this kill MCI's chances of attracting a new carrier?

In general, if this is true it would certainly hurt, but there are a lot of extenuating circumstances to argue. MCI is probably mostly a victim of the MAX debacle. Also, they are probably also a victim of the WW-FI battle in that FI and WW were fighting over all the middle tier cities and WW had shorter range narrowbody aircraft so MCI was safe from WW entering (like they did in CLE and DFW with an A330 and others). So now that WW is gone there are probably former WW markets that are now lower risk.

At the end of the day, I think MCI *maybe* losing FI is likely better than STL not getting them at all, but it would not be good. The airlines are a pack mentality. Just look at AUS and PIT and FLL and OAK as proof.

Re: (Rumor) FI not returning to MCI in 2020?

Posted: Tue Jul 30, 2019 10:04 pm
by jplatts
dfwjim1 wrote:
KMCI will probably always have issues attracting a TATL carriers as there are so many options to connect on the way to Europe such as ORD, YYZ, NYC, PHL and others.


Even though DL and WN both serve LGA nonstop from MCI, MCI is located in one of the largest markets that doesn't currently have any nonstop service to JFK.

IAH, SMF, and STL are the only markets bigger than MCI that DL doesn't currently serve nonstop from JFK, but DL starts IAH-JFK nonstop service on October 27th.

DL adding MCI-JFK nonstop service would allow for easier connections onto transatlantic flights from MCI.

Re: (Rumor) FI not returning to MCI in 2020?

Posted: Tue Jul 30, 2019 10:19 pm
by QXorVX
Isn't this flight currently 3/4x a week? I would assume if it was not performing great 2x schedule would be tried like some of their other smaller cities. But maybe it is just that bad.

Re: (Rumor) FI not returning to MCI in 2020?

Posted: Tue Jul 30, 2019 10:54 pm
by Jshank83
jplatts wrote:
dfwjim1 wrote:
KMCI will probably always have issues attracting a TATL carriers as there are so many options to connect on the way to Europe such as ORD, YYZ, NYC, PHL and others.


Even though DL and WN both serve LGA nonstop from MCI, MCI is located in one of the largest markets that doesn't currently have any nonstop service to JFK.

IAH, SMF, and STL are the only markets bigger than MCI that DL doesn't currently serve nonstop from JFK, but DL starts IAH-JFK nonstop service on October 27th.

DL adding MCI-JFK nonstop service would allow for easier connections onto transatlantic flights from MCI.


How does this have anything to do with FL or an intl flight? There are already lots of one stop connections from MCI to Europe. JFK isn't needed.

Re: (Rumor) FI not returning to MCI in 2020?

Posted: Tue Jul 30, 2019 11:47 pm
by evank516
Jshank83 wrote:
jplatts wrote:
dfwjim1 wrote:
KMCI will probably always have issues attracting a TATL carriers as there are so many options to connect on the way to Europe such as ORD, YYZ, NYC, PHL and others.


Even though DL and WN both serve LGA nonstop from MCI, MCI is located in one of the largest markets that doesn't currently have any nonstop service to JFK.

IAH, SMF, and STL are the only markets bigger than MCI that DL doesn't currently serve nonstop from JFK, but DL starts IAH-JFK nonstop service on October 27th.

DL adding MCI-JFK nonstop service would allow for easier connections onto transatlantic flights from MCI.


How does this have anything to do with FL or an intl flight? There are already lots of one stop connections from MCI to Europe. JFK isn't needed.


It's already been done and dropped.

Re: (Rumor) FI not returning to MCI in 2020?

Posted: Wed Jul 31, 2019 12:22 am
by ncflyer
What makes everyone so sure they’re returning to CLE? I’m not buying it.

Re: (Rumor) FI not returning to MCI in 2020?

Posted: Wed Jul 31, 2019 12:44 am
by SANFan
Midwestindy wrote:
blhp68 wrote:
Subsidy in KC also ran out this year.

Hasn't run out yet

"KCI and Kansas City business organizations offered Icelandair incentives to help persuade the airline to commit to the new route. KCI agreed to waive landing and airport usage fees for two years that it otherwise charges other airlines to Icelandair. KCI will also award $250,000 to Icelandair for each of the next two years to market the route in Kansas City and to promote Kansas City in Europe."
https://onemileatatime.com/icelandair-kansas-city/
Subsidy runs out at the end of this summers season.

This sure doesn't sound like a subsidy.

Even the article itself mentions "incentives". The inclusions and amounts sound like a typical incentive package offered by many (most?) other airports; the time frame -- 2 years -- also sounds like an airport incentive program.

A subsidy is a pile of cash offered by non-airport entities -- local businesses, city, county or state governments -- to a carrier to start new service or to keep service going. Often, it is offered as guarantees that a carrier will realize a certain minimum profit on a route. Airports are not allowed to directly offer cash to airlines.Sounds like a poorly researched (or written) article.

In any case, it wouldn't be the first time an airline pulled service from a city once incentives and/or subsidies ended.

bb

Re: (Rumor) FI not returning to MCI in 2020?

Posted: Wed Jul 31, 2019 12:51 am
by sw733
737max8 wrote:
Friend flew KEF-MCI last week and said everyone had their own row...can't be doing too well if that's the case in the middle of American summer.


I hear it’s the Icelandic summer too now, but can’t confirm ;)

Re: (Rumor) FI not returning to MCI in 2020?

Posted: Wed Jul 31, 2019 1:06 am
by jplatts
Jshank83 wrote:
How does this have anything to do with FL or an intl flight? There are already lots of one stop connections from MCI to Europe. JFK isn't needed.


While DL doesn't serve JFK nonstop from MCI or STL, DL serves JFK nonstop from ORD, CVG, CLE, CMH, DTW, IND, and MSP in the Midwest.

JFK is one of the international gateways for DL, and DL offers connections onto DL, SU, UX, AF, AZ, KQ, KL, and VS transatlantic flights at JFK.

Most of the European destinations that DL or its codeshare partners serve nonstop from JFK already have 1-stop connecting options from MCI through ORD, PHL, EWR, or IAD on AA or UA.

Why does DL serve JFK nonstop from ORD, CLE, CMH, and IND (which are all in the Midwest, within the LGA perimeter, and closer to JFK than MCI is), but not from MCI?

Re: (Rumor) FI not returning to MCI in 2020?

Posted: Wed Jul 31, 2019 1:18 am
by Jshank83
I’m also skeptical this travel agent didn’t just see the route ending seasonally in September and assume it is dropped. Not saying it will come back but it seems a little early to cut the route for next year already.

Re: (Rumor) FI not returning to MCI in 2020?

Posted: Wed Jul 31, 2019 1:33 am
by Midwestindy
SANFan wrote:
Even the article itself mentions "incentives". The inclusions and amounts sound like a typical incentive package offered by many (most?) other airports; the time frame -- 2 years -- also sounds like an airport incentive program.

Also mentions the word subsidy twice as well in one section
Image

SANFan wrote:
A subsidy is a pile of cash offered by non-airport entities -- local businesses, city, county or state governments -- to a carrier to start new service or to keep service going. Often, it is offered as guarantees that a carrier will realize a certain minimum profit on a route. Airports are not allowed to directly offer cash to airlines. Sounds like a poorly researched (or written) article.


Subsidy definition: "a sum of money granted by the government or a public body to assist an industry or business so that the price of a commodity or service may remain low or competitive."

An airport is a city entity, and they are giving cash to a business to keep a service competitive: "KCI will also award $250,000 to Icelandair for each of the next two years to market the route in Kansas City and to promote Kansas City in Europe."

Fits directly into the definition.

Regardless, if an airport is giving cash to an airline to operate a route it is considered a subsidy by definition of the word, whether it is common or not.

Re: (Rumor) FI not returning to MCI in 2020?

Posted: Wed Jul 31, 2019 1:43 am
by CLEguy
enilria wrote:

I thought CLE would not come back and it is returning.

In CLE FI just took a year off, but will return as long as the MAX flies. So this would be the opposite if this isn't a rumor. Definitely not a consistent strategy if it plays out that way.


Is this just speculation or has this been confirmed?

Re: (Rumor) FI not returning to MCI in 2020?

Posted: Wed Jul 31, 2019 7:47 am
by ncflyer
CLEguy wrote:
enilria wrote:

I thought CLE would not come back and it is returning.

In CLE FI just took a year off, but will return as long as the MAX flies. So this would be the opposite if this isn't a rumor. Definitely not a consistent strategy if it plays out that way.


Is this just speculation or has this been confirmed?


I’m taking this as a no. Second time it’s been asked with no response.

Re: (Rumor) FI not returning to MCI in 2020?

Posted: Wed Jul 31, 2019 1:01 pm
by Dominion301
For what it's worth FI's MCI-KEF route is already bookable on their website in summer 2020.

Re: (Rumor) FI not returning to MCI in 2020?

Posted: Wed Jul 31, 2019 3:26 pm
by enilria
ncflyer wrote:
CLEguy wrote:
enilria wrote:

I thought CLE would not come back and it is returning.

In CLE FI just took a year off, but will return as long as the MAX flies. So this would be the opposite if this isn't a rumor. Definitely not a consistent strategy if it plays out that way.


Is this just speculation or has this been confirmed?


I’m taking this as a no. Second time it’s been asked with no response.

Doing the OAG thread I get a lot of PMs from airline management, and FI told me that CLE is suspended only as long as the MAX isn't flying and as of now they expect it to return for Summer 2020, but if the MAX still isn't flying that's a different story. It is not presently for sale probably because of the unsettled MAX situation.

EDIT: Regarding this thread, that makes me wonder if they are considering swapping MCI and CLE, so that MCI becomes the market that only flies if the MAX does and CLE is green-lighted?

Re: (Rumor) FI not returning to MCI in 2020?

Posted: Wed Jul 31, 2019 9:08 pm
by greenair727
^if not the Max8, what does FI use for MCI?

Re: (Rumor) FI not returning to MCI in 2020?

Posted: Wed Jul 31, 2019 9:33 pm
by Jshank83
greenair727 wrote:
^if not the Max8, what does FI use for MCI?


They are using a 757 currently.