PlaneMad134
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MOL warns of UK base closures and cuts in the coming week's

Wed Jul 31, 2019 8:24 am

MOL was saying in a podcast that UK airports are now at risk of losing aircraft and having their base closed completely, I heard Belfast Intl, Prestwick and Aberdeen will lose an aircraft or most routes and Edinburgh, Manchester and Bristol will lose aircraft.
Ill try to find the podcast if possible.
 
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MrBren
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Re: MOL warns of UK base closures and cuts in the coming week's

Wed Jul 31, 2019 8:38 am

Is this due to the 737 MAX fiasco and Brexit?
 
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downtown273
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Re: MOL warns of UK base closures and cuts in the coming week's

Wed Jul 31, 2019 8:41 am

MrBren wrote:
Is this due to the 737 MAX fiasco and Brexit?


Probably a combination of both, plus the weak GBP is prob not helping.
 
greg85
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Re: MOL warns of UK base closures and cuts in the coming week's

Wed Jul 31, 2019 10:30 am

MrBren wrote:
Is this due to the 737 MAX fiasco and Brexit?


You could get a job at the Ryanair press office. I’m sure they will use these 2 reasons to justify any cuts.

There are some other factors that are causing Ryanair to cut back in it’s weaker positions. Over capacity, increasing crew costs (at last), and they’re still short of crew (like most of their competitors).

I only feel sorry for poor old Prestwick airport.
 
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JannEejit
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Re: MOL warns of UK base closures and cuts in the coming week's

Wed Jul 31, 2019 10:36 am

PIK more likely to do with an alleged imminent sale to someone who won't be A: Continuing pax operations or B: Won't be giving MOL such an easy ride.
 
skipness1E
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Re: MOL warns of UK base closures and cuts in the coming week's

Wed Jul 31, 2019 10:41 am

Weaker pound also means inbound tourism should be stronger mind, every cloud has a silver lining
 
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FlyRow
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Re: MOL warns of UK base closures and cuts in the coming week's

Wed Jul 31, 2019 10:48 am

Classic Ryanair: Give me route-subsidy or lower cost or I'll get out of here. Classic Gunboat diplomacy.
F70-F100-RJ85-RJ70-E190-319-320-321-733-734-735-737-738-752-753-763-764-772-744-380
 
B757236GT
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Re: MOL warns of UK base closures and cuts in the coming week's

Wed Jul 31, 2019 11:04 am

In terms of BRS they have been reducing the level of based aircraft for a while to the extent there are now only 3 based. Easyjet on the other hand have 18 based at the moment and we are getting the A321 soon together with more possible expansion. Even TUI and Thomas Cook have more based than Ryanair at the moment. It would seem to be that given these other airlines seem to be expanding operations it kind of puts the cards in BRS favour when negotiating with Ryanair and the future. Together with some of the issues mentioned above i could certainly see the Bristol base close and i could also see the guys in orange picking up the slack!
 
davidjohnson6
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Re: MOL warns of UK base closures and cuts in the coming week's

Wed Jul 31, 2019 12:19 pm

Stansted sees a mix of pax who live in/near London and those visiting the UK. Prestwick is based very heavily on pax living in/near Glasgow. The routes at Prestwick are largely about taking Glaswegians to the beach for sunshine, not about large cities

If the pound falls, some of the UK resident pax who no longer use Ryanair at Stansted will be offset by inbound tourists visiting London
Any tourists who want to visit Scotland will fly into Edinburgh or Glasgow, not Prestwick
 
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OA260
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Re: MOL warns of UK base closures and cuts in the coming week's

Wed Jul 31, 2019 12:29 pm

Articles here :

Ryanair may cut Belfast route in no-deal Brexit

Ryanair would likely cut back its Glasgow, Edinburgh and Belfast routes in the event of a no-deal Brexit, according to chief executive Michael O'Leary.

Asked by analysts about the location of cuts planned in the coming months as a result of delays in the delivery of the Boeing 737 MAX, Mr O'Leary said the three routes would be obvious candidates.

"An obvious one (to cut) if there is a hard Brexit at the end of October, we have three UK domestic routes ... They would readily fall out straight away," he said.

"There is a longer-term question mark over those in a hard Brexit," Mr O'Leary said. "Frankly ... we are not growing in Edinburgh, Glasgow or Belfast."

www.rte.ie/news/business/2019/0729/1065758-ryanair/

---

Ryanair cuts Michael O’Leary pay in half under new contract
Chief executive was paid €3.73m last year and began new five-year contract on April 1st

Ryanair Holdings will cut chief executive Michael O’Leary’s pay by 50 per cent to €500,000 and reduce his bonus to a maximum of the same amount, according to its annual report.

The document shows that Ryanair paid Mr O’Leary €3.73 million in the 12 months to March 31st, which included basic pay of €1.058 million, a bonus of €768,000 and share-based payments of €1.547 million. He waived his bonus during the preceding 12 months, following flight cancellations sparked by a pilot roster mix-up.

Mr O’Leary began a new five-year contract as group chief executive on April 1st that will run until July 31st, 2024.

www.irishtimes.com/business/transport-a ... -1.3972332
 
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JannEejit
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Re: MOL warns of UK base closures and cuts in the coming week's

Wed Jul 31, 2019 12:41 pm

Must be hard to grow in Glasgow when you blame APD and withdraw the lions share of your services. The 'growth' of my hair is seriously curtailed every time I visit the barber shop too !
 
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sassiciai
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Re: MOL warns of UK base closures and cuts in the coming week's

Wed Jul 31, 2019 12:52 pm

There is also the one hour time difference between the UK/Ireland and the rest of Europe. At least in the mornings, planes can fly out of European bases one hour earlier than from UK bases (assuming more or less similar curfew hours). Such flights into the UK/Ireland airports will arrive "at the right time" for the majority of peak morning departures

Perhaps the cost of that advantage is the difference in the evening, when UK airports might be open one hour longer than the European ones!

I have no insight into how Ryanair relocates an aircraft from a base in the UK, e.g. Prestwick, to one in Europe, e.g. Charleroi. Apart from the aircraft, does Ryanair offer (and pay for) the relocation of flight and cabin crews? Given that such relocations are not cheap, I can imagine that the airline does not do that, so repositioning aircraft from one base to another will also have some difficult staffing issues to resolve!
 
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OA260
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Re: MOL warns of UK base closures and cuts in the coming week's

Wed Jul 31, 2019 1:19 pm

Breaking on Sky News 500 pilots and 400 cabin crew to be let go from September / October at Ryanair. Not sure of specific details more to follow.

Update :

Job cuts 'unavoidable' at Ryanair - Michael O'Leary

Ryanair Chief Executive Michael O'Leary has told staff that the budget airline needs 1,500 fewer pilots and cabin crew than originally envisaged.

The news comes amid a drop in earnings and delays to expansion plans forced by the grounding of the Boeing 737 Max jetliner.

Ryanair this month cut the number of 737 Max jets it expects to fly next summer from 58 to 30 due to delivery delays.

Mr O'Leary told staff in a video message that the carrier had an excess of more than 500 pilots and about 400 flight attendants at the moment.

www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2019/0731/1066262-ryanair/
Last edited by OA260 on Wed Jul 31, 2019 1:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
SCQ83
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Re: MOL warns of UK base closures and cuts in the coming week's

Wed Jul 31, 2019 1:41 pm

sassiciai wrote:
I have no insight into how Ryanair relocates an aircraft from a base in the UK, e.g. Prestwick, to one in Europe, e.g. Charleroi. Apart from the aircraft, does Ryanair offer (and pay for) the relocation of flight and cabin crews? Given that such relocations are not cheap, I can imagine that the airline does not do that, so repositioning aircraft from one base to another will also have some difficult staffing issues to resolve!


Most FAs in those "remote" bases in Central/Northern Europe, STN and the UK tend to be youngish Eastern or Southern Europeans. So probably it will be a "take it or leave it".
 
Insertnamehere
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Re: MOL warns of UK base closures and cuts in the coming week's

Wed Jul 31, 2019 1:52 pm

skipness1E wrote:
Weaker pound also means inbound tourism should be stronger mind, every cloud has a silver lining

But will that really balance out the loss in demand from locals there not flying as much as the fares get more expensive because of the weaker pound.
 
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Re: MOL warns of UK base closures and cuts in the coming week's

Wed Jul 31, 2019 2:07 pm

skipness1E wrote:
Weaker pound also means inbound tourism should be stronger mind, every cloud has a silver lining

Yeah but the increased inbound tourism demand that a weaker pound could cause would be lower than the reduced outbound tourism demand on point to point routes like the ones Ryanair flies. On the UK end of the route, a weaker pound reduces demand wholesale as everyone is affected by their own currency being weaker. On the non-UK end, while some may be enticed to visit the UK as it has become relatively cheaper, there is still the option to visit everywhere else in the world. A weakened pound affects everyone on the UK end making outbound tourism decisions, whereas from the non-UK end, it only affects the subset of people who were inclined to visit the UK.

So unless, Ryanair was depending much more on inbound UK demand than outbound to fill those flights, they'll have a problem.
 
AWACSooner
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Re: MOL warns of UK base closures and cuts in the coming week's

Wed Jul 31, 2019 2:17 pm

I bet STN is on the chopping block ;)
 
ahj2000
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Re: MOL warns of UK base closures and cuts in the coming week's

Wed Jul 31, 2019 2:42 pm

Could a consolidation of PIK and GLA happen? It seems strange to offer different flights from the two, not putting options for both airports.
-Andrés Juánez
 
SCQ83
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Re: MOL warns of UK base closures and cuts in the coming week's

Wed Jul 31, 2019 2:50 pm

In any case, the Brexit thing seems like a typical Ryanair excuse.

In general Europe is over served so that means that some of the newest low-cost routes make you wonder whom they are targeting. For instance with Ryanair things like Edinburg-Luxembourg or Manchester-Gothenburg.
 
skipness1E
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Re: MOL warns of UK base closures and cuts in the coming week's

Wed Jul 31, 2019 2:51 pm

ahj2000 wrote:
Could a consolidation of PIK and GLA happen? It seems strange to offer different flights from the two, not putting options for both airports.

They play one off the other, GLA won't offer them a cheap enough deal so they still fly from PIK who have no choice but to take what they can get. There is a also a 4 bay B737 maintenance facility at PIK, although I note BA have a bigger operation at CWL and don't fly there commercially. It's no longer essential to serve the airport where your fleet is maintained, easyJet already do a lot of positioning flights to cover this, and BA do a fair few MAD-LHR rotations with no passengers.
 
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spinotter
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Re: MOL warns of UK base closures and cuts in the coming week's

Wed Jul 31, 2019 3:44 pm

FlyRow wrote:
Classic Ryanair: Give me route-subsidy or lower cost or I'll get out of here. Classic Gunboat diplomacy.


Conducted via media pronouncements and with a goal of saving money and giving the traveler a cheaper alternative, however, instead of via steamships and cannons with a goal of plundering. No difference?
 
SCQ83
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Re: MOL warns of UK base closures and cuts in the coming week's

Wed Jul 31, 2019 4:35 pm

skipness1E wrote:
ahj2000 wrote:
Could a consolidation of PIK and GLA happen? It seems strange to offer different flights from the two, not putting options for both airports.

They play one off the other, GLA won't offer them a cheap enough deal so they still fly from PIK who have no choice but to take what they can get. There is a also a 4 bay B737 maintenance facility at PIK, although I note BA have a bigger operation at CWL and don't fly there commercially. It's no longer essential to serve the airport where your fleet is maintained, easyJet already do a lot of positioning flights to cover this, and BA do a fair few MAD-LHR rotations with no passengers.


They don't necessarily need subsidies from GLA. Sometimes they just stay at the "minor" airport only if they get enough subsidies, otherwise they move to the bigger airport. So if PIK doesn't offer enough money, they might well move everything to GLA even without any money.

This year Ryanair couldn't get a deal to renew their "agreement" with the city council of Vigo so they just cancelled everything and moved all the VGO flights and split them between their two closer bases (SCQ and OPO) overnight.

In fact very often Ryanair's routes are set in a way that can be moved to nearby airports very quickly. For instance CDT and VLC (Ryanair is subsidised in CDT so when they got money, they got some VLC STN flights and VLC-BRS and move them to CDT... money runs out; they moved their back to VLC).

Another example, Ryanair this summer increased some domestic routes in ALC very late (for instance ALC-SCQ went from 7 to 9 weekly for sale in the spring for summer). Interestingly the same day, Ryanair announced their first domestic route out of the new Murcia airport to Mallorca (RMU-PMI) without subsidies. That looked very suspicious and coincidental to me. Probably Ryanair wanted to have a deal with the Murcia region so they could move those two 2 new frequencies from ALC to RMU overnight if they paid them.
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: MOL warns of UK base closures and cuts in the coming week's

Wed Jul 31, 2019 9:07 pm

I have already predicted this years ago.

That MOL is seeing is earnings capped says a lot.
He used to be this memorable shark, he has gone soft.

I'm not sure that new management would be better, but MOL has been making a lot of wrong calls lately.
I also don't believe in the whole Laudamotion concept, that is going to be a loss-leader for a while.

Waterbomber wrote:
mic501 wrote:
Delta777Jet wrote:

If there is no money to be made, how you think Wizz Air is making money in Eastern Europe ? This is worker traffic, comparable to Poland - UK/Ireland or UAE-India/Bangladesh for example.
People earning money abroad and frequently travelling, family visits and also business between the countries is big.
Ukraine is a economic disaster, but people can quite easily start finding work and getting visa to work in Poland. Lviv and flights to Poland make a lot of sense, many people in the Lviv area speaking polish and in general Ukrainian people have no big issues speaking polish.

Also in Spain, Portugal, Germany and the UK are many ukrainians living, so flights make a lot of sense.


Agree Totally. My parents for example migrated to the uk in the 90's from ukraine and have been wanting cheap flights to visit family over there, for years. for many years we've had to fly to either rzeszow in poland next to the ukrainian border and cross a really busy border or fly to kiev via munich/frankfurt/amsterdam/paris and then take an overnight train to family. hopefully these new routes will save this hassle and are not costly like the established airlines like lufthansa,ba,aui,klm,afr etc.
I believe it is good on both sides, for the people living in ukraine wanting to visit europe and people already living in europe wanting to visit ukraine for personal or business reasons.


No actually you are not agreeing with him at all, you are proving that demand from outside Ukraine only exists at rock bottom fares.
Unfortunately, you are too quickly associating Ryanair with low fares. Ryanair is no longer the ULCC that used to offer 5 EUR fares. Thier fare structure is now very similar to hybrid airlines and is on the brink of collapsing.

If they operate out of KBP, the airport-associated costs and fares will be higher than whatever Wizzair is offering now already out of IEV. Ryanair won't be able to create new demand, nor will they be able to charge higher fares because that's not the nature of the market nor Ryanair's customer base.

A return fare from LTN will be equivalent to a month's salary in Ukraine.

Recently, Ryanair isn't doing a lot of things right.
Sure, their profitability has increased as they have decided to transform themselves into a hybrid airline, walking away from the ULCC model.
In a time where legacies are posting record profits, Ryanair is producing higher profits as well thanks to this model.
The big problem is that Ryanair will be much more exposed at the next downturn. Their ULCC nature made them stay profitable in tough times, but with an aging fleet that used to be 3 years on average and now about 7 years; and their new operating model, when legacies start going back into the red, Ryanair won't have a loyal customer base to rely on and things can turn soar very quickly.

I fly with Ryanair a lot.
So I can see their transforming business model and fare structure. I'm playing cat and mouse with their yield managers because I know now from notes that I took over the years, where the yields and the demand are on the particular routes that I fly depending on the period of the year. So when I see that their fares are too high, I wait it out and start looking for alternatives. If I find an alternative at lower cost, I book it and otherwise I just wait for the Rynair yield manager to press the panic button and start decreasing the fares.
In the short-term this yield management strategy of theirs might work, but I think that a lot of people will get disappointed that they could have booked the same fare cheaper if they had waited it out. This is a very risky yield management strategy as they open up markets to competition.


posting.php?mode=quote&f=3&p=20270739

viewtopic.php?t=1402219

Waterbomber wrote:

The airline industry is very unforgiving and every misstep could trigger an avalanche.

With the ongoing formation of unions and probable strikes, reduced value in their offering, an ageing fleet and airports more and more eager to increase charges, Ryanair is moving away from it low fares model.
They are wielding a double-edged sword, trying to increase revenues while reducing service levels.
Ryanair runs high margins relative to its revenues but its revenues are very low compared to the size of the operations. A decrease in revenue quickly wipes off any profits.
In other words, 40 less pax per flight and Ryanair can kiss their business model goodbye.

The best days are behind them.




I wasn't a big fan of EW but recently I'm seeing hunger and competitiveness.
They're still far from an integrated airline, but they are starting to offer options and possibilities and the market will find that appealing.
Ryanair better watch their back.


And my advice to MOL would be to defer, not cancel the Max orders.
Let the MAX get back online, operate safely for a few years and when the older NG's are tired and can no longer, bring them in. Say, 2024ish.
At the current fuel prices, keeping the B737NG longer is the smart thing to do.
 
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Aisak
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Re: MOL warns of UK base closures and cuts in the coming week's

Wed Jul 31, 2019 10:01 pm

sassiciai wrote:
I have no insight into how Ryanair relocates an aircraft from a base in the UK, e.g. Prestwick, to one in Europe, e.g. Charleroi. Apart from the aircraft, does Ryanair offer (and pay for) the relocation of flight and cabin crews? Given that such relocations are not cheap, I can imagine that the airline does not do that, so repositioning aircraft from one base to another will also have some difficult staffing issues to resolve!


I cannot believe you just wrote “Ryanair” and “not cheap” in the same sentence. Ryanair is well known for threatening cabin crew with relocation if certain level of onboard sales is not met. The technical euphemism these days of modern slavery is “low performance”.
Even more bizarre. Most people you see on board wearing the Ryanair uniform are not employed by Ryanair at all. Temp work firms and fictional enterprises are used as work agencies such as crewlink. These work practices are being found ilegal in several countries and that’s why you see from time to time Ryanair staff striking. And Ryanair rostering planes and crew from other bases to mitigate the effects of the strike, which is also illegal.

Now, “thanks” to Brexit, it’s more difficult for Ryanair to move planes around bases. Ryanair planes is the UK fly under the British Ryanair UK AOC under G-XXXX registrations. Relocating those frames should take place only within UK bases or they would need to be tranasfered to another airline within the group.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: MOL warns of UK base closures and cuts in the coming week's

Wed Jul 31, 2019 10:50 pm

Aisak wrote:
sassiciai wrote:
I have no insight into how Ryanair relocates an aircraft from a base in the UK, e.g. Prestwick, to one in Europe, e.g. Charleroi. Apart from the aircraft, does Ryanair offer (and pay for) the relocation of flight and cabin crews? Given that such relocations are not cheap, I can imagine that the airline does not do that, so repositioning aircraft from one base to another will also have some difficult staffing issues to resolve!


I cannot believe you just wrote “Ryanair” and “not cheap” in the same sentence. Ryanair is well known for threatening cabin crew with relocation if certain level of onboard sales is not met. The technical euphemism these days of modern slavery is “low performance”.
Even more bizarre. Most people you see on board wearing the Ryanair uniform are not employed by Ryanair at all. Temp work firms and fictional enterprises are used as work agencies such as crewlink. These work practices are being found ilegal in several countries and that’s why you see from time to time Ryanair staff striking. And Ryanair rostering planes and crew from other bases to mitigate the effects of the strike, which is also illegal.

Now, “thanks” to Brexit, it’s more difficult for Ryanair to move planes around bases. Ryanair planes is the UK fly under the British Ryanair UK AOC under G-XXXX registrations. Relocating those frames should take place only within UK bases or they would need to be tranasfered to another airline within the group.

I suspect that not being able to move crew at whim is the driver. Safety employees shouldn't be outsourced.

I wonder if Brexit breaks their cost model.

MOL hasn't shown his brilliance for a few years. I'm confused why such disregard for labor laws has been allowed.

Lightsaber
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Boeing74741R
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Re: MOL warns of UK base closures and cuts in the coming week's

Thu Aug 01, 2019 2:19 pm

OA260 wrote:
Articles here :

Ryanair may cut Belfast route in no-deal Brexit

Ryanair would likely cut back its Glasgow, Edinburgh and Belfast routes in the event of a no-deal Brexit, according to chief executive Michael O'Leary.

Asked by analysts about the location of cuts planned in the coming months as a result of delays in the delivery of the Boeing 737 MAX, Mr O'Leary said the three routes would be obvious candidates.

"An obvious one (to cut) if there is a hard Brexit at the end of October, we have three UK domestic routes ... They would readily fall out straight away," he said.

"There is a longer-term question mark over those in a hard Brexit," Mr O'Leary said. "Frankly ... we are not growing in Edinburgh, Glasgow or Belfast."

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2019/07 ... 8-ryanair/


So what was the point of going to the effort acquiring a UK AOC? Or will that still be needed to have UK bases and/or fly UK-non-EU routes?

I can see where MOL may be coming from regarding BFS. I have flight to MAN booked for this coming Monday that only cost £48 for two of us including priority boarding. Flybe to MAN and easyJet to MAN and LPL were generally more expensive, but another tick for FR on this occasion was the timing. If I remember, I'll report back on loadings.

Aisak wrote:
Now, “thanks” to Brexit, it’s more difficult for Ryanair to move planes around bases. Ryanair planes is the UK fly under the British Ryanair UK AOC under G-XXXX registrations. Relocating those frames should take place only within UK bases or they would need to be tranasfered to another airline within the group.


At this moment in time, they only have one 737 on the UK register (G-RUKA, previously EI-FEF).

I can't see how moving planes will be any more difficult other than the need to re-register. easyJet move planes in and out of the Swiss register regularly and have been moving dozens of planes to the Austrian register ahead of Brexit. It will just need more planning ahead, not an insurmountable task and in much the same way it'll be when the MAX 200's are delivered (or when they used to have -200's operating alongside -800's).
 
Bhoy
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Re: MOL warns of UK base closures and cuts in the coming week's

Thu Aug 01, 2019 3:22 pm

Boeing74741R wrote:
At this moment in time, they only have one 737 on the UK register (G-RUKA, previously EI-FEF).

I can't see how moving planes will be any more difficult other than the need to re-register. easyJet move planes in and out of the Swiss register regularly and have been moving dozens of planes to the Austrian register ahead of Brexit. It will just need more planning ahead, not an insurmountable task and in much the same way it'll be when the MAX 200's are delivered (or when they used to have -200's operating alongside -800's).
surely they could just 'sublease' frames to the new AOC as required - I'm sure I've read about ASL planes operating with different callsigns depending on the required cabotage rights - if the IAA and CAA are happy with arrangements?

(Although obviously they'd have needed a paper U.K. AOC to be able to sublease as required)
 
skipness1E
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Re: MOL warns of UK base closures and cuts in the coming week's

Thu Aug 01, 2019 3:51 pm

Aisak wrote:
sassiciai wrote:
Ryanair planes is the UK fly under the British Ryanair UK AOC under G-XXXX registrations. Relocating those frames should take place only within UK bases or they would need to be tranasfered to another airline within the group.

They have one single G- B737 as I type this, the rest are on the Irish FR/RYR AOC. They're leaving it late to mitigate against as no-deal Brexit as easyJet have done with easyjet Europe, but I believe HMG signalled the status quo would be allowed to continue in any transition period.
 
bennett123
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Re: MOL warns of UK base closures and cuts in the coming week's

Thu Aug 01, 2019 7:36 pm

IMO, this level of redundancies would only make sense in two situations;

That no B737NG were due to retire in 2019, or if any that were due to retire cannot be extended.
 
Bhoy
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Re: MOL warns of UK base closures and cuts in the coming week's

Thu Aug 01, 2019 7:39 pm

skipness1E wrote:
Aisak wrote:
sassiciai wrote:
Ryanair planes is the UK fly under the British Ryanair UK AOC under G-XXXX registrations. Relocating those frames should take place only within UK bases or they would need to be tranasfered to another airline within the group.

They have one single G- B737 as I type this, the rest are on the Irish FR/RYR AOC. They're leaving it late to mitigate against as no-deal Brexit as easyJet have done with easyjet Europe, but I believe HMG signalled the status quo would be allowed to continue in any transition period.

It was more of a pressing issue for easyJet - without easyJet Europe, they potentially couldn't operate their bases in Germany, France, Spain, the Netherlands, Italy, Portugal (am I missing any other countries with bases?*) on non-UK flights with G- registered Aircraft.

Ryanair's ops with EI- registered Aircraft would theoretically 'only' be affected on UK domestic flights (of which they have hardly any left) and UK to non-EU (or non-Ireland, depending on the eventual bilateral) services. But ops at all their other non-UK bases wouldn't be affected.


*excluding Switzerland and the HB- registered Aircraft, obviously.
 
mwhcvt
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Re: MOL warns of UK base closures and cuts in the coming week's

Thu Aug 01, 2019 10:14 pm

The big trouble with MOL is he has about as much credibility as you average politician, i.e. ZERO :P it’s funny how his biggest base of all even bigger than DUB is not mentioned in these cuts STN I’d say this is just a classic case of using other believable factors to cull routes and or bases that just are not cutting it

I’m confident the effect of BREXIT will be less on aviation than predicted as the big player within the EU market will just not stand having their business slashed look at KL they fly to what 19 uk airports daily many with multiple daily flights, now yes there’s a sizeable traffic demand to AMS ex the UK but not that big of a demand a very large portion never leaves AMS and connects directly to a different end point, as for many of the UK airports KL serves there’s actually no link to the main hub ports of the UK eg LHR and to a lesser extent LGW

Take my local airport BHX that sees 6 flights a day from KLM on a mix of EMB/737 so that’s likely in the region of 800 seats a day from one airport KL are not going to walk away from that, the same also goes for LHGroup and AF side of AFKLM
Must think up a new one soon, slow moving brain trying to get into gear ;)
 
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Aisak
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Re: MOL warns of UK base closures and cuts in the coming week's

Sat Aug 03, 2019 2:06 pm

skipness1E wrote:
They have one single G- B737 as I type this, the rest are on the Irish FR/RYR AOC. They're leaving it late to mitigate against as no-deal Brexit as easyJet have done with easyjet Europe, but I believe HMG signalled the status quo would be allowed to continue in any transition period.

Yes, only one frame is registered as G-, probably because they need at least one aircraft to keep the British AOC alive.
Yes, the UK has stated (for the moment, let’s wait what the new PM thinks and does) that all current British entities holding a British AOC will be regarded as British under current and new bilaterales involving the UK travel. The entire UK aviation would colapse if not. BA owned by a Spanish entity, Virgin by US and Dutch-French one, Connect (FlyBE) by Irish and a Luxembourg registered hedge fund...

And let’s not forget that Ryanair UK is a British entity owned by an Irish (EU) one.
But more importantly, how Ryanair UK employs its crew? It’s a British company that has to comply with Brisith labour laws with workers.
Are they British workers?
Have these workers the legal background to be employed by a British company?
Even if all current employees get grandfathered rights to continue on with their contracts, will non-brits be able to sign a UK contract so easily?
Will crew get fired or transferred (now not to Poland, but to a distant UK base) because certain sales theshold is not met when new contracts are not that easy to sign?

It seems the Ryanair UK division cannot handle “business” the same way things are done right now from Ireland, so...
 
SCQ83
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Re: MOL warns of UK base closures and cuts in the coming week's

Sat Aug 03, 2019 2:47 pm

It seems that in addition to CGN-SXF (already mentioned in the Lufthansa thread) they are cutting OPO-LIS this winter season.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: MOL warns of UK base closures and cuts in the coming week's

Sat Aug 03, 2019 3:10 pm

mwhcvt wrote:
The big trouble with MOL is he has about as much credibility as you average politician, i.e. ZERO :P it’s funny how his biggest base of all even bigger than DUB is not mentioned in these cuts STN I’d say this is just a classic case of using other believable factors to cull routes and or bases that just are not cutting it


Blaming external factors for poor business decisions or business inflexibility is standard CEO form, regrettable as it may be.
 
cc2314
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Re: MOL warns of UK base closures and cuts in the coming week's

Sat Aug 03, 2019 4:03 pm

So if many cuts to UK bases goes ahead where will the aircraft go?
Are any bases within Europe growing in size?
Can't help but feel fr are have used up all their bluffs.
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BasilFawlty
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Re: MOL warns of UK base closures and cuts in the coming week's

Sat Aug 03, 2019 9:05 pm

SCQ83 wrote:
It seems that in addition to CGN-SXF (already mentioned in the Lufthansa thread) they are cutting OPO-LIS this winter season.

This keeps me wondering: why isn’t FR more succesful in domestic markets other than Italy and Spain?
'Every year donkeys and mules kill more people than plane crashes'
 
olle
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Re: MOL warns of UK base closures and cuts in the coming week's

Sat Aug 03, 2019 10:20 pm

Many of the ryan air competitors seems to use A321. Perhaps it was a misstake by ryanair to mess up their relationships withvAirbus as they did? Now they even bought one company flying airbus to show that they are serious.
 
factsonly
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Re: MOL warns of UK base closures and cuts in the coming week's

Sun Aug 04, 2019 6:54 am

mwhcvt wrote:

I’m confident the effect of BREXIT will be less on aviation than predicted as the big player within the EU market will just not stand having their business slashed look at KL they fly to what 19 uk airports daily many with multiple daily flights, now yes there’s a sizeable traffic demand to AMS ex the UK but not that big of a demand a very large portion never leaves AMS and connects directly to a different end point, as for many of the UK airports KL serves there’s actually no link to the main hub ports of the UK eg LHR and to a lesser extent LGW

Take my local airport BHX that sees 6 flights a day from KLM on a mix of EMB/737 so that’s likely in the region of 800 seats a day from one airport KL are not going to walk away from that, the same also goes for LHGroup and AF side of AFKLM


You don't need to be confident, you can be certain by reading this UK Government page:
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/air-service ... of-no-deal

As KLM is a point-to-point NL-UK operator, traffic rights will not change in case of a no-deal Brexit.
EU airlines maintain their traffic rights to operate to/from all EU nations to the UK, but they will lose their rights to operate UK domestic flights.
 
Delta777Jet
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Re: MOL warns of UK base closures and cuts in the coming week's

Sun Aug 04, 2019 6:57 am

BasilFawlty wrote:
SCQ83 wrote:
It seems that in addition to CGN-SXF (already mentioned in the Lufthansa thread) they are cutting OPO-LIS this winter season.

This keeps me wondering: why isn’t FR more succesful in domestic markets other than Italy and Spain?


LIS-OPO is around 3-4 hours by car, same goes for CGN-SXF which even has a good connection by train. TAP changed the route to a full jet service, leaving from the LIS main terminal. The low cost terminal at LIS is a total disaster, you won't like to fly from there. Spain is a bigger country and you even got islands to connect to the mainland , so there is enough demand. Same would be also valid for France.
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SCQ83
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Re: MOL warns of UK base closures and cuts in the coming week's

Sun Aug 04, 2019 7:30 am

Delta777Jet wrote:
BasilFawlty wrote:
SCQ83 wrote:
It seems that in addition to CGN-SXF (already mentioned in the Lufthansa thread) they are cutting OPO-LIS this winter season.

This keeps me wondering: why isn’t FR more succesful in domestic markets other than Italy and Spain?


LIS-OPO is around 3-4 hours by car, same goes for CGN-SXF which even has a good connection by train. TAP changed the route to a full jet service, leaving from the LIS main terminal. The low cost terminal at LIS is a total disaster, you won't like to fly from there. Spain is a bigger country and you even got islands to connect to the mainland , so there is enough demand. Same would be also valid for France.


Ryanair still keeps domestic routes in Portugal: OPO-FAO and islands. In France they have added new domestic routes with their new French bases.

Although they also cancelled not long ago ATH-SKG which was a relatively similar route to LIS-OPO.

I reckon the problem with those flights where they have to compete with sub-4 hour train is they cannot charge +200 euro one-way. At that price tag, everybody will take the train. I expect MAD-SCQ to be chopped once the AVE train is completed to Galicia (by 2021-2022) and Madrid-Santiago will be down to about 3 hours from 5 hours today.
 
LJ
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Re: MOL warns of UK base closures and cuts in the coming week's

Sun Aug 04, 2019 9:06 am

Aisak wrote:
But more importantly, how Ryanair UK employs its crew? It’s a British company that has to comply with Brisith labour laws with workers.
Are they British workers?
Have these workers the legal background to be employed by a British company?
Even if all current employees get grandfathered rights to continue on with their contracts, will non-brits be able to sign a UK contract so easily?
Will crew get fired or transferred (now not to Poland, but to a distant UK base) because certain sales theshold is not met when new contracts are not that easy to sign?

It seems the Ryanair UK division cannot handle “business” the same way things are done right now from Ireland, so...


This is probably the most important issue for FR. At present, they can use (cheap) Eastern European flight crews without any labour issues. A hard Brexit may change this. Moreover, using EU based employment agencies may not be allowed anymore for Ryanair UK, thus this method of getting cheap labour may be closed off. Given the limited scope of the affected business, it probably cannot create large economies of scale for a dedicated UK operation, thus they're reviewing their options.
 
peterinlisbon
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Re: MOL warns of UK base closures and cuts in the coming week's

Sun Aug 04, 2019 2:58 pm

Someone didn't sell enough scratch cards.
 
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Aisak
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Re: MOL warns of UK base closures and cuts in the coming week's

Sun Aug 04, 2019 4:02 pm

SCQ83 wrote:
Delta777Jet wrote:
BasilFawlty wrote:
This keeps me wondering: why isn’t FR more succesful in domestic markets other than Italy and Spain?


LIS-OPO is around 3-4 hours by car, same goes for CGN-SXF which even has a good connection by train. TAP changed the route to a full jet service, leaving from the LIS main terminal. The low cost terminal at LIS is a total disaster, you won't like to fly from there. Spain is a bigger country and you even got islands to connect to the mainland , so there is enough demand. Same would be also valid for France.


Ryanair still keeps domestic routes in Portugal: OPO-FAO and islands. In France they have added new domestic routes with their new French bases.

Although they also cancelled not long ago ATH-SKG which was a relatively similar route to LIS-OPO.

I reckon the problem with those flights where they have to compete with sub-4 hour train is they cannot charge +200 euro one-way. At that price tag, everybody will take the train. I expect MAD-SCQ to be chopped once the AVE train is completed to Galicia (by 2021-2022) and Madrid-Santiago will be down to about 3 hours from 5 hours today.


Also there is one more thing to note about domestic flights: VAT. In Spain the VAT for transport is 10%. So about 9% of the ticket paid by the customer will go to the Spanish Government. That happens on MAD-VGO flights but not on MAD-OPO under the EU law.
 
cityairline
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Re: MOL warns of UK base closures and cuts in the coming week's

Sun Aug 04, 2019 9:26 pm

SCQ83 wrote:
In any case, the Brexit thing seems like a typical Ryanair excuse.

In general Europe is over served so that means that some of the newest low-cost routes make you wonder whom they are targeting. For instance with Ryanair things like Edinburg-Luxembourg or Manchester-Gothenburg.

May I ask why MAN-GOT is such a strange route to you? This flight has has been fully booked since day one. GOT-London is served 7x daily year-around, so I don’t find GOT-MAN twice a week strange at all. I can think of at least 100 Ryanair routes that are more odd...
I don't fly to live, I live to fly...
 
SCQ83
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Re: MOL warns of UK base closures and cuts in the coming week's

Wed Aug 07, 2019 7:02 am

FAO base to be closed in January 2020:

https://observador.pt/2019/08/06/ryanai ... ipulantes/

Ryanair vai encerrar base de Faro a partir de janeiro, diz o sindicato dos tripulantes

A Ryanair comunicou esta terça-feira, em Faro, que vai encerrar a base naquele aeroporto em janeiro de 2020, e despedir cerca de 100 trabalhadores.
 
f4f3a
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Re: MOL warns of UK base closures and cuts in the coming week's

Wed Aug 07, 2019 7:11 am

This is blustering and down to union negotiations . It is worth noting that Ryanair pilots are balloting for strike . This action is bullying punishing . Ryanair pilots still don’t have basic benefits that most uk pilots enjoy . If they close bases routes etc I’m sure those slots will be easily filled by their competitors
 
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albertocsc
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Re: MOL warns of UK base closures and cuts in the coming week's

Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:56 am

Yes, at the moment, closure of Belfast and Faro is confirmed, together with downsizing of East Midlands. New cuts might be announced soon (Leeds, London SEN and London STN).
 
Toinou
Posts: 54
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Re: MOL warns of UK base closures and cuts in the coming week's

Wed Aug 07, 2019 12:24 pm

SCQ83 wrote:
Delta777Jet wrote:
BasilFawlty wrote:
This keeps me wondering: why isn’t FR more succesful in domestic markets other than Italy and Spain?


LIS-OPO is around 3-4 hours by car, same goes for CGN-SXF which even has a good connection by train. TAP changed the route to a full jet service, leaving from the LIS main terminal. The low cost terminal at LIS is a total disaster, you won't like to fly from there. Spain is a bigger country and you even got islands to connect to the mainland , so there is enough demand. Same would be also valid for France.


Ryanair still keeps domestic routes in Portugal: OPO-FAO and islands. In France they have added new domestic routes with their new French bases.

Although they also cancelled not long ago ATH-SKG which was a relatively similar route to LIS-OPO.

I reckon the problem with those flights where they have to compete with sub-4 hour train is they cannot charge +200 euro one-way. At that price tag, everybody will take the train. I expect MAD-SCQ to be chopped once the AVE train is completed to Galicia (by 2021-2022) and Madrid-Santiago will be down to about 3 hours from 5 hours today.


And this can probably explain the greek cancellation: rail travel between Athens and Thessaloniki got accelerated recently and probably will be even more shortly.
 
SCQ83
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Re: MOL warns of UK base closures and cuts in the coming week's

Wed Aug 07, 2019 12:42 pm

albertocsc wrote:
Yes, at the moment, closure of Belfast and Faro is confirmed, together with downsizing of East Midlands. New cuts might be announced soon (Leeds, London SEN and London STN).


SEN is surprising. This is a brand new base and I thought it was subsidised by Southend (which is a great deal, flights subsidised from the London side... it is usually the other way around!).
 
davidjohnson6
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Re: MOL warns of UK base closures and cuts in the coming week's

Wed Aug 07, 2019 3:54 pm

From searching for flights and very often seeing surprisingly low fares, I suspect that yields have been poor on a number of routes at London-Southend for Ryanair

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