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CityRail
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Sun Aug 25, 2019 1:59 pm

qf789 wrote:
Qantas to cut capacity to HKG over coming months by 7% due to weaker demand

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... ty-460415/


Cut capacity, yet potentially upgrades service to HKG.
I recalled Qantas A332 has WiFi where A333 does not.
That means there is a good chance finally there's WiFi service to HKG from Qantas, something Cathay and Virgin has already got them and customers will go away if Qantas continue to fail offering WiFi on board.
 
CityRail
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Sun Aug 25, 2019 2:17 pm

anstar wrote:

If its effecting QF I guess Virgin will also be feeling a bit of pain?


Potentially. I flew Virgin to Melbourne earlier in August from Hong Kong just before the protest at the airport and it seems that Y is very full, yet J is only 70% full.

On the way back to Hong Kong from Sydney Y Cabin was only 70% full.

Late August looks quite full with some days VA is unable to provide any reward seats nor any points redeemable seats on direct to Hong Kong.

First availability is this Saturday. Also looks like some days Virgin is not operating Sydney/Melbourne - Hong Kong flights already. For instance no flights SYD-HKG on 3rd Sept (Tues).

Also appears no ex-MEL on Wed.

I suspect we will hear what will happen to HKG for Virgin on Wednesday this week, yet I think it is very unlikely it will be dumped right away for now, due to its partnership with Hong Kong Airlines and HNA shareholding still in effect. In the long term, HKG could still be one of the most financially viable route for Virgin to keep for long haul Asian flights, in particular we see BKK is not doing so well these days.

Not sure what could happen if TK replaces HNA's shareholding later though.

What I am interested to see is whether Virgin could express its interest in more airline alliances this Wednesday, especially Air NZ's CEO is leaving, and HNA's shareholding could go to TK, another *A member.

Also I am very interested to see if Virgin could express its interest in another Asian route. I would lean towards Japan for now because demand could be very high for Japanese route as Hong Kong.

In a quiet month like May you do see quite high patronage for some Japanese routes from Australia. I do believe there's a gap and chance for new partnerships and routes there.
 
moa999
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Sun Aug 25, 2019 2:19 pm

Only the 8 domestic configured aircraft (EBA-EBL) are getting WiFi at this point, and in any event the NBN satellite they connect to only covers the Australian mainland.

Qantas has said they are waiting for the three ViaSat3 Ka satellites to launch.. these won't be operable until 2022/23 but will deliver better speeds.
 
ben175
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Sun Aug 25, 2019 2:24 pm

waoz1 wrote:
The West reporting today WA tourism minister meeting with MU this week re Shanghai flights to Perth.

Had been quiet for a while on that one


The fact ANA launches services a week from today and MU is still yet to confirm flights is pretty crazy considering MU announced trial flights even before NRT was announced. I really hope we see MU in PER next year.

Hopefully we see PER-PVG, PER-MNL and PER-SGN next year. The latter two are perfect 321neo routes.
 
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SCFlyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Sun Aug 25, 2019 3:03 pm

CityRail wrote:
I suspect we will hear what will happen to HKG for Virgin on Wednesday this week, yet I think it is very unlikely it will be dumped right away for now, due to its partnership with Hong Kong Airlines and HNA shareholding still in effect. In the long term, HKG could still be one of the most financially viable route for Virgin to keep for long haul Asian flights, in particular we see BKK is not doing so well these days.

Not sure what could happen if TK replaces HNA's shareholding later though.


VA and VS had recently applied for a JV between AUS-HKG-LHR and AUS-LAX-LHR. VS is likely to be a "backup" option for HKG feed should the partnership with HX/HNA collapse.

https://www.accc.gov.au/public-register ... n-atlantic

CityRail wrote:
What I am interested to see is whether Virgin could express its interest in more airline alliances this Wednesday, especially Air NZ's CEO is leaving, and HNA's shareholding could go to TK, another *A member.

Also I am very interested to see if Virgin could express its interest in another Asian route. I would lean towards Japan for now because demand could be very high for Japanese route as Hong Kong.

In a quiet month like May you do see quite high patronage for some Japanese routes from Australia. I do believe there's a gap and chance for new partnerships and routes there.


There are opportunities for VA to form more partnerships in other countries. E.g VA would only expand to Japan only if they form a partnership with NH to help each other on both ends of the route. Ditto with GA for a potential Indonesia/Bali JV (e.g putting each others code on the Bali flights and VA returning via codeshare on the MEL/PER-DPS routes for example).

However for major Airline alliances, I can't see VA joining any Alliances anytime soon.
Alliances costs money to join, plus the ongoing membership fees. Money that VA does not have lying around. Sure there is the "connecting partner" option, but that's a "less costly" option with only benefits from the "3 (or more) sponsors" only. Benefits don't pass to non-partners e.g NZ or LH. Not sure if Scurrah is willing to spend money on that either.

In addition, from the *A front, even if the new CEO of NZ manages to get along with the new CEO of VA, VA is still likely to face a veto from UA on the back of VA's long time tie-up with Delta Air Lines, which VA isn't likely to dump anytime soon.

Should the slim chance if the likes of DL "comes out of nowhere" to purchase the HNA (or EY) stakes in VA, then the final nail can be hammered in the coffin for VA joining "any" alliance in general.

Taking into consideration that TK has denied having interest in VA. It is strongly likely that VA will remain the status quo for the foreseeable future with no clearly interested bidders on the horizon.

The "So-Called Saviour" SQ should not be taken seriously as a bidder considering the rumours of SQ buying further in VA happens at least once every year fuelled by likes of media outlets such as Reuters et al, which has all turned out to be "FAKE NEWS" every time
 
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qf789
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Sun Aug 25, 2019 7:33 pm

NH says forward bookings on PER-NRT have exceeded expectations

https://www.perthnow.com.au/news/wa/the ... 19rXcecx-s
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moa999
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Sun Aug 25, 2019 11:24 pm

VH-OJU retirement flight on 13 Oct 2019 with another points plane SYD-LAX flight.

Bookings close 2 Sep
 
CityRail
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Mon Aug 26, 2019 1:24 am

SCFlyer wrote:
There are opportunities for VA to form more partnerships in other countries. E.g VA would only expand to Japan only if they form a partnership with NH to help each other on both ends of the route. Ditto with GA for a potential Indonesia/Bali JV (e.g putting each others code on the Bali flights and VA returning via codeshare on the MEL/PER-DPS routes for example).

However for major Airline alliances, I can't see VA joining any Alliances anytime soon.
Alliances costs money to join, plus the ongoing membership fees. Money that VA does not have lying around. Sure there is the "connecting partner" option, but that's a "less costly" option with only benefits from the "3 (or more) sponsors" only. Benefits don't pass to non-partners e.g NZ or LH. Not sure if Scurrah is willing to spend money on that either.

In addition, from the *A front, even if the new CEO of NZ manages to get along with the new CEO of VA, VA is still likely to face a veto from UA on the back of VA's long time tie-up with Delta Air Lines, which VA isn't likely to dump anytime soon.

Should the slim chance if the likes of DL "comes out of nowhere" to purchase the HNA (or EY) stakes in VA, then the final nail can be hammered in the coffin for VA joining "any" alliance in general.

Taking into consideration that TK has denied having interest in VA. It is strongly likely that VA will remain the status quo for the foreseeable future with no clearly interested bidders on the horizon.

The "So-Called Saviour" SQ should not be taken seriously as a bidder considering the rumours of SQ buying further in VA happens at least once every year fuelled by likes of media outlets such as Reuters et al, which has all turned out to be "FAKE NEWS" every time


I thought about that too. I think I should have made clearer that I didn't mean Major Airline Alliances, but alliances with individual airlines.

What you said is right, you can enhance relationship with almost every airline that Qantas does not associate with, for eg. NH, OZ, KE, GA.

If other shareholders like SQ allows, BR and TG can also be included as well.

NZ re-alliance is very unlikely, because it already has existing alliance with Qantas for another 4 years.

Europe is another very weak point for Virgin, that they might need to do something about it soon, let it be alliance with Lufthansa group.
 
getluv
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Mon Aug 26, 2019 1:36 am

CityRail wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Qantas to cut capacity to HKG over coming months by 7% due to weaker demand

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... ty-460415/


Cut capacity, yet potentially upgrades service to HKG.
I recalled Qantas A332 has WiFi where A333 does not.
That means there is a good chance finally there's WiFi service to HKG from Qantas, something Cathay and Virgin has already got them and customers will go away if Qantas continue to fail offering WiFi on board.


WiFi will only work when flying over Australia, not offshore. I don't think the demand for WiFi on international flights is as big of a deal for the average person.
I'm that bad type.
 
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CraigAnderson
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Mon Aug 26, 2019 1:53 am

Turnaround may prove tricky for new Virgin Australia CEO Scurrah

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-virg ... SKCN1VG01O

With shares trading near all-time lows, Scurrah’s options include cutting costs, restructuring management, rebranding its underperforming budget carrier Tigerair Australia, ending loss-making flights to Hong Kong and tightening control over the loyalty division, seven current and former managers told Reuters on condition of anonymity.


Virgin Australia pulling out of HKG would be massive and a huge slap down for Borghetti's overheated Asian ambitions.
 
getluv
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Mon Aug 26, 2019 2:07 am

CityRail wrote:
SCFlyer wrote:
There are opportunities for VA to form more partnerships in other countries. E.g VA would only expand to Japan only if they form a partnership with NH to help each other on both ends of the route. Ditto with GA for a potential Indonesia/Bali JV (e.g putting each others code on the Bali flights and VA returning via codeshare on the MEL/PER-DPS routes for example).

However for major Airline alliances, I can't see VA joining any Alliances anytime soon.
Alliances costs money to join, plus the ongoing membership fees. Money that VA does not have lying around. Sure there is the "connecting partner" option, but that's a "less costly" option with only benefits from the "3 (or more) sponsors" only. Benefits don't pass to non-partners e.g NZ or LH. Not sure if Scurrah is willing to spend money on that either.

In addition, from the *A front, even if the new CEO of NZ manages to get along with the new CEO of VA, VA is still likely to face a veto from UA on the back of VA's long time tie-up with Delta Air Lines, which VA isn't likely to dump anytime soon.

Should the slim chance if the likes of DL "comes out of nowhere" to purchase the HNA (or EY) stakes in VA, then the final nail can be hammered in the coffin for VA joining "any" alliance in general.

Taking into consideration that TK has denied having interest in VA. It is strongly likely that VA will remain the status quo for the foreseeable future with no clearly interested bidders on the horizon.

The "So-Called Saviour" SQ should not be taken seriously as a bidder considering the rumours of SQ buying further in VA happens at least once every year fuelled by likes of media outlets such as Reuters et al, which has all turned out to be "FAKE NEWS" every time


I thought about that too. I think I should have made clearer that I didn't mean Major Airline Alliances, but alliances with individual airlines.

What you said is right, you can enhance relationship with almost every airline that Qantas does not associate with, for eg. NH, OZ, KE, GA.

If other shareholders like SQ allows, BR and TG can also be included as well.

NZ re-alliance is very unlikely, because it already has existing alliance with Qantas for another 4 years.

Europe is another very weak point for Virgin, that they might need to do something about it soon, let it be alliance with Lufthansa group.


- Not sure if SQ would want VA having more codeshare partners even from within *A, as far as SQ is concerned it has Asia and Europe covered for VA;
- OZ is a QF codeshare partner;
- QF associates with a lot of airlines (even the ones you listed) through interlining. Their interline network is quite comprehensive and seamless (compared to VA) and offer decent domestic rates to these airlines;
- VA's European coverage is actually decent, with leverage from both SQ and EY.

I'm not sure if VA have progressed this, but they should focus on upgrading its systems to make it easier for seamless transfers with its own interline partners. I know some travel agents do not recommend VA for this reason. These upgrades will make other airlines want to work with VA more.
I'm that bad type.
 
eamondzhang
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Mon Aug 26, 2019 2:38 am

Flyingsottsman wrote:
Next Sunday nights FJ flight from Melbourne to Nandi has been cancelled, My family were meant to be on that flight, looks like we are going the Saturday night now, I have tried to find out why looking on their web site and also Melbourne Airport site as well with no luck. Does any body know why this flight has been cancelled is it lack of aircraft, or maintenance or some thing else?

Most likely the MAX groundings and subsequent lack of aircraft. They've sent two 738s for scrap, one even last month.

My manager was meant to be on the inbound NAN-MEL that night - think his family was rerouted via SYD during the last time we discussed.

CityRail wrote:
What you said is right, you can enhance relationship with almost every airline that Qantas does not associate with, for eg. NH, OZ, KE, GA.

QF actually does have a codeshare and interline agreement with OZ.

Michael
 
a19901213
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Mon Aug 26, 2019 2:43 am

qf789 wrote:
NH says forward bookings on PER-NRT have exceeded expectations

https://www.perthnow.com.au/news/wa/the ... 19rXcecx-s


PER is an important hub for Japanese trading companies as they hold significant fraction of the shares in mining companies/project.

I remember last year people here had a serious argument whether this route can succeed and lots of people were quite pessimistic on this route but personally I think it’s will be a great success, we’ll just need to wait and see.

However Perth authorities really should put more effort on PR, majority of Japanese have no clue Perth has one of if not the best beaches in Australia.
 
waoz1
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Mon Aug 26, 2019 3:24 am

a19901213 wrote:
qf789 wrote:
NH says forward bookings on PER-NRT have exceeded expectations

https://www.perthnow.com.au/news/wa/the ... 19rXcecx-s


PER is an important hub for Japanese trading companies as they hold significant fraction of the shares in mining companies/project.

I remember last year people here had a serious argument whether this route can succeed and lots of people were quite pessimistic on this route but personally I think it’s will be a great success, we’ll just need to wait and see.

However Perth authorities really should put more effort on PR, majority of Japanese have no clue Perth has one of if not the best beaches in Australia.


They have been sinking quiet a bit of money into it in Japan
https://thewest.com.au/news/wa/japanese ... 881301683z
 
IndianicWorld
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Mon Aug 26, 2019 5:29 am

a19901213 wrote:
qf789 wrote:
NH says forward bookings on PER-NRT have exceeded expectations

https://www.perthnow.com.au/news/wa/the ... 19rXcecx-s


PER is an important hub for Japanese trading companies as they hold significant fraction of the shares in mining companies/project.

I remember last year people here had a serious argument whether this route can succeed and lots of people were quite pessimistic on this route but personally I think it’s will be a great success, we’ll just need to wait and see.

However Perth authorities really should put more effort on PR, majority of Japanese have no clue Perth has one of if not the best beaches in Australia.


The route has potential to do well.

Not sure Perth as a tourist destination though is likely to be top of their list, especially thinking about beaches there. I tend to find that many of the people overseas that I know associate Perth beaches more for what’s in the water (sharks) rather than the quality of the sand.

I read a good article not long back about the lack of investment in permanent attractions in Perth, with the main focus on short term events as part of the current strategy. Will be interesting to see what they do moving forward to strengthen the tourism offering.
 
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qf789
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Mon Aug 26, 2019 8:25 am

a19901213 wrote:
qf789 wrote:
NH says forward bookings on PER-NRT have exceeded expectations

https://www.perthnow.com.au/news/wa/the ... 19rXcecx-s


PER is an important hub for Japanese trading companies as they hold significant fraction of the shares in mining companies/project.

I remember last year people here had a serious argument whether this route can succeed and lots of people were quite pessimistic on this route but personally I think it’s will be a great success, we’ll just need to wait and see.

However Perth authorities really should put more effort on PR, majority of Japanese have no clue Perth has one of if not the best beaches in Australia.


Not only mining but the agriculture industry should do well out of this new service as well
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qf789
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Mon Aug 26, 2019 8:28 am

REX has announced a full year profit of $25.2 million and expects the next 12 months will see it decline around 20%. Contributing factors include the declining AUD and an increase in fuel costs

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... al-460458/
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Velocity7
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Mon Aug 26, 2019 8:54 am

CityRail wrote:

Also I am very interested to see if Virgin could express its interest in another Asian route. I would lean towards Japan for now because demand could be very high for Japanese route as Hong Kong.

In a quiet month like May you do see quite high patronage for some Japanese routes from Australia. I do believe there's a gap and chance for new partnerships and routes there.


I agree that Japan is a big hole for VA. The only real option for loyal Velocity members is SQ via SIN and the addition of 6-7 hours of travel time when I can go direct with QF is just too much. An alliance with NH would be a good move
 
waoz1
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Mon Aug 26, 2019 9:02 am

Velocity7 wrote:
CityRail wrote:

Also I am very interested to see if Virgin could express its interest in another Asian route. I would lean towards Japan for now because demand could be very high for Japanese route as Hong Kong.

In a quiet month like May you do see quite high patronage for some Japanese routes from Australia. I do believe there's a gap and chance for new partnerships and routes there.


I agree that Japan is a big hole for VA. The only real option for loyal Velocity members is SQ via SIN and the addition of 6-7 hours of travel time when I can go direct with QF is just too much. An alliance with NH would be a good move


Every tried to get a business redemption out of VA for overseas travel recently? Hopeless
You can do say Perth Tokyo but you have to book seperate Perth to Singapore then Singapore to Tokyo redemptions which is a heap more points.
 
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qf789
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Mon Aug 26, 2019 9:39 am

While VA is expected to announce another loss this week, a turnaround by Scurrah is likely to be difficult considering the decisions made by Borghetti which included rising costs, expensive fleet and airport contracts, the sale of part of its frequent flyer business, a looming U.S. dollar debt refinancing and a complex share register and boardroom. Options for Scurrah include cutting costs, restructuring management, rebranding TT, ending loss-making flights to Hong Kong and tightening control over the loyalty division.

While the full new strategy most likely wont be revealed this week, some of it may with it moving away from being reactive to QF of which Borghetti was obsessed with to forming its own strategy and identity

https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/turna ... 07109.html
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CraigAnderson
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Mon Aug 26, 2019 9:55 am

qf789 wrote:
While the full new strategy most likely wont be revealed this week, some of it may with it moving away from being reactive to QF of which Borghetti was obsessed with to forming its own strategy and identity
https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/turna ... 07109.html


I'd expect this to be very much the case. JB's strategy made Virgin Australia a better airline than Virgin Blue, and a closer competitor to Qantas, but I've always felt HKG to be a poor decision. Virgin should just focus on domestic, trans-Pacific and trans-Tasman, although that last one is now in a much weaker position since the VA/NZ spat too.

With HNA looking to sell its stake in Virgin Australia and providing lack-lustre HK-China feed, there's no reason Scurrah shouldn't just axe HKG and bring those A330s back to domestic east-west routes.
 
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777Jet
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Mon Aug 26, 2019 10:58 am

"Qantas Boeing 747-400 VH-OJU to be retired in October"

"The airline said on Monday VH-OJU’s final commercial flight before the aircraft is retired has been scheduled for October 13 2019 as a special one-off service from Sydney to Los Angeles, with flight number QF99.

And frequent flyers will have the first opportunity to secure their place on QF99, with all 364 seats only available via points redemptions until September 2. Any remaining seats will then be made available for sale to the general public."

https://australianaviation.com.au/2019/ ... n-october/

The QF 747-400 fleet will then all be 747-400ER.
DC10-10/30,MD82/88/90, 717,727,732/3/4/5/7/8/9ER,742/4,752/3,763/ER,772/E/L/3/W,788/9, 306,320,321,332/3,346,359,388
 
log0008
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Mon Aug 26, 2019 12:44 pm

Asiana Airlines will be operating a once a week MEL-ICN charter service from 27/12- 21/2 schedule is: OZ6037 0730 OZ6047 0900 Friday 777
 
RainerBoeing777
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Mon Aug 26, 2019 7:06 pm

Hello, does anyone have information on the use of the Qantas Airbus A380-800? I know what routes MEL / SYD-LAX, SYD-DFW, MEL-SIN, SYD-SIN-LHR do, what other routes fly? and do all 12 A388 need for the 5 routes mentioned?
CX - JL - LH - KE - KL - SQ - QR - QF - TG
 
qf002
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Mon Aug 26, 2019 7:27 pm

RainerBoeing777 wrote:
Hello, does anyone have information on the use of the Qantas Airbus A380-800? I know what routes MEL / SYD-LAX, SYD-DFW, MEL-SIN, SYD-SIN-LHR do, what other routes fly? and do all 12 A388 need for the 5 routes mentioned?


They only have 10 aircraft in service at the moment, one out for maintenance and another for refurb.

During peak periods they also run SYD-HKG (one extra frame) and additional LAX/charter work over the summer (ie the MCO charter in January).
 
QF742
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Mon Aug 26, 2019 10:46 pm

log0008 wrote:
Asiana Airlines will be operating a once a week MEL-ICN charter service from 27/12- 21/2 schedule is: OZ6037 0730 OZ6047 0900 Friday 777


Hopefully OZ will do well and move this to a scheduled year round service! I think MEL is the number one unserved market from Seoul.

Do you have a link to press release or similar?
 
QF742
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Mon Aug 26, 2019 10:49 pm

CraigAnderson wrote:
qf789 wrote:
While the full new strategy most likely wont be revealed this week, some of it may with it moving away from being reactive to QF of which Borghetti was obsessed with to forming its own strategy and identity
https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/turna ... 07109.html


I'd expect this to be very much the case. JB's strategy made Virgin Australia a better airline than Virgin Blue, and a closer competitor to Qantas, but I've always felt HKG to be a poor decision. Virgin should just focus on domestic, trans-Pacific and trans-Tasman, although that last one is now in a much weaker position since the VA/NZ spat too.

With HNA looking to sell its stake in Virgin Australia and providing lack-lustre HK-China feed, there's no reason Scurrah shouldn't just axe HKG and bring those A330s back to domestic east-west routes.


A strategy moving away from Qantas would be wise. Recreate what DJ was before VA - ie a “mid cost” carrier but with great service and a fun product. I think there is room for that kind of airline in Australia, but it is clear from Virgins financials over a number of years that there is not space for 2 QFs.
 
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SCFlyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Mon Aug 26, 2019 11:46 pm

I do wonder what is the future for HKG, if it wasn't for the recently approved VA/VS JV, the logical move would be for Scurrah/VA to initiate the moves to axe it.

I suspect the VS/VA JV for AU-LAX-LHR and AU-HKG-LHR is the last roll of the dice for VA in regards to HKG flights. Taking into consideration VA wasn't happy at HU/HX for the lackluster feed at HKG. Saying that, I can't see the VA/VS linkup lasting long in regards to HKG either unless if they are able to get better slots out of HKG going westbound (up to 6 hours connection time ex-SYD/MEL to HKG).
 
smi0006
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Tue Aug 27, 2019 1:54 am

SCFlyer wrote:
I do wonder what is the future for HKG, if it wasn't for the recently approved VA/VS JV, the logical move would be for Scurrah/VA to initiate the moves to axe it.

I suspect the VS/VA JV for AU-LAX-LHR and AU-HKG-LHR is the last roll of the dice for VA in regards to HKG flights. Taking into consideration VA wasn't happy at HU/HX for the lackluster feed at HKG. Saying that, I can't see the VA/VS linkup lasting long in regards to HKG either unless if they are able to get better slots out of HKG going westbound (up to 6 hours connection time ex-SYD/MEL to HKG).


I don’t think the short term impact of the protests and political uncertainty on demand should be underestimated either, especially on what is rumoured to be a marginal route as is.

Question also is, where would the 330s go? Does domestic have the demand now to reabsorb them? Rumour is AU got some HND slots - no reason they should be automatically allocated to QF is there?
 
CityRail
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Tue Aug 27, 2019 3:26 am

SCFlyer wrote:
I do wonder what is the future for HKG, if it wasn't for the recently approved VA/VS JV, the logical move would be for Scurrah/VA to initiate the moves to axe it.

I suspect the VS/VA JV for AU-LAX-LHR and AU-HKG-LHR is the last roll of the dice for VA in regards to HKG flights. Taking into consideration VA wasn't happy at HU/HX for the lackluster feed at HKG. Saying that, I can't see the VA/VS linkup lasting long in regards to HKG either unless if they are able to get better slots out of HKG going westbound (up to 6 hours connection time ex-SYD/MEL to HKG).


Axing HKG is a strategy suicide, because if you lose HKG, then where North Asian customers will go when they choose to fly domestically in Australia? Mostly and more likely Qantas.

Virgin is just fine with feeding its domestic traffic from SE Asia due to its partnership with SQ, but Qantas has lots more partners in North Asia and going via Singapore from North Asia to Australia is a very slow reroute. So if you axe HKG, more customers will then go to connecting domestic Qantas flights right?

HX and HU is not in a great financial position, which is a great con. Virgin will not be able to team up with Cathay Pacific neither.

What Virgin may need to do is to team up with other carriers at HKG for further feeds, such as BR and KE and NH, and move beyond the HNA group.

Second, Vistara is a great option for connection to a great continent in India.

Connecting at Europe is a problem with Virgin at HKG. Only VS is viable. Other carriers, BA and AY are OneWorld; AF and KL tied up with Qantas, LH, LX and OS already tied up with Cathay Pacific.

Yet I would say if they change to HND or NRT, as NH only has European flights during the morning, it will cause a headache to VA as well.

So I suppose keeping HKG is the most sensible option to prevent the worst happening. Also as HNA and Nanshan Group from China holding 40% of Virgin, I doubt if they would want Virgin to axe HKG for now.

I suppose a number of things Virgin can do right now:

1. Sell VARA to REX and enter into an alliance
2. Axe Tigerair Australia. Rebrand Economy X to full service and Economy to no-frills.
Last edited by CityRail on Tue Aug 27, 2019 3:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
N91
Posts: 15
Joined: Wed Sep 26, 2018 2:55 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Tue Aug 27, 2019 3:30 am

https://dra-aero.com

Perhaps something for REX to look into
 
eamondzhang
Posts: 1359
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2010 8:23 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Tue Aug 27, 2019 3:36 am

CityRail wrote:
Axing HKG is a strategy suicide, because if you lose HKG, then where North Asian customers will go when they choose to fly domestically in Australia? Mostly and more likely Qantas.

The vast majority of international travellers are not arriving on QF in any case, so who said they'll connect to QF? I know too many who will go the LCC ones within Oz instead of VA/QF. It's not something that will change, HKG or not.

CityRail wrote:
Second, Vistara is a great option for connection to a great continent in India.

UK is not flying to HKG - not yet anyway. Unless they start flying to Australia, but again this is a long shot at this stage.

CityRail wrote:
Yet I would say if they change to HND or NRT, as NH only has European flights during the morning, it will cause a headache to VA as well.

NH has morning flights to JFK and ORD in the morning and with the new round of NA routes opening up, more will come - at least IAH will more than likely to move across in similar schedule.

They also has a few regionals but not many - SHA, GMP & TPE are all that is useful (apart from Japan domestic which is huge though).

CityRail wrote:
1. Sell VARA to REX and enter into an alliance

The only one where I see Rex would be interested is the ATR routes but everything else is IMHO not on Rex's radar, especially A320 fleet. VARA has its own issue, yes, but Rex is also not in too good a position to absorb an airline of VARA's size IMO. A more closely aligned relationship between the two is possible, though.

Michael
 
346fetish
Posts: 43
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Tue Aug 27, 2019 4:36 am

Is LAX a money-losing market for VA?
"BA have got waterfalls in their head office. The only time we have waterfalls in the Ryanair office is when the toilet leaks."
 
ArtV
Posts: 68
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Tue Aug 27, 2019 4:55 am

346fetish wrote:
Is LAX a money-losing market for VA?


At the moment for VA, it is probably easier to go through the short list of money-making markets for them. Long haul is not on that list.
 
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SCFlyer
Posts: 290
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:02 am

The Delta partnership is likely one of the reasons why LAX is marginal at best for VA through this tough time when Australia - USA yields in general are at its lowest when compared to 10 years ago.

VA entered the LAX market back in the Brett Godfrey days when it was Virgin Blue/Pacific Blue for short-haul operations and V Australia for Long-Haul operations. Back then DJ (as a group) was rolling around in profit left, right and centre for most of BG's tenure before John Borghetti (JB) took over.

LAX was also reportedly a sore sticking point in the Borghetti/Luxon spat when multiple media sources had reported Luxon went off his original aim of ousting JB for poor financial performance by allegedly (let his ego get in the way) by demanding that VA "give up all international" and "dump Delta", which is baulked on by all major shareholders and led to them siding with JB instead of CL.

AU-LAX was previously a huge money-maker back when it was QF and UA duopoly, this was followed by VA and DL entering the market before the later two entered in a JV back in 2010.
 
346fetish
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:21 am

ArtV wrote:
346fetish wrote:
Is LAX a money-losing market for VA?


At the moment for VA, it is probably easier to go through the short list of money-making markets for them. Long haul is not on that list.


Then why don't they pull out of the wide-body stuff and focus on turning profits with the 73H fleet?
"BA have got waterfalls in their head office. The only time we have waterfalls in the Ryanair office is when the toilet leaks."
 
moa999
Posts: 553
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:46 am

We probably see a bit of a decision point in the next couple of years as the leased 777 comes up for renewal (at a guess 2021). The other four 777s are owned. The 330s are younger being leased from 2012-14.

Reportedly not a great second hand market for the 777s and P2F conversions not cheap due to strengthening needed.

There's also the argument that shutting down international would enable a foreign entity/consortia to privatise it, something thats a litte more difficult with the current structure.
 
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CraigAnderson
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:50 am

Qantas bans ALL Apple MacBook Pro laptops from being used inflight following a recall of 15 inch MacBook Pros due to faulty batteries!

https://www.executivetraveller.com/qant ... ok-pro-ban
 
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CraigAnderson
Posts: 298
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:53 am

Qantas Freight takes delivery of the first of two Boeing 747-8 freighters.

Qantas Freight has welcomed a new addition to its fleet with the first of two Boeing 747-8F freighter aircraft touching down in Sydney today. The next generation freighters will be operated by Atlas Air, on behalf of Qantas. Each aircraft offers 20 per cent more freight capacity and space for seven extra cargo pallets compared to the 747-400F.


https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media ... ches-down/
 
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SCFlyer
Posts: 290
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Tue Aug 27, 2019 6:00 am

346fetish wrote:
ArtV wrote:
346fetish wrote:
Is LAX a money-losing market for VA?


At the moment for VA, it is probably easier to go through the short list of money-making markets for them. Long haul is not on that list.


Then why don't they pull out of the wide-body stuff and focus on turning profits with the 73H fleet?


Contracts, JVs (e.g the Delta TransPacific JV) and the entire A330 fleet are leased. A330s are leased till 2025 iirc, penalties apply if they pull out of their A330 leases earlier.

4 of the 5 77Ws are owned.
 
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CraigAnderson
Posts: 298
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Tue Aug 27, 2019 6:13 am

QF images of its new B747-8F are at https://www.dropbox.com/sh/82jlet5by54y ... VNwsa?dl=0
 
xiaotung
Posts: 1003
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Tue Aug 27, 2019 6:30 am

I do expect VA to pull out of HKG altogether. The alliance with HNA was originally designed for Mainland China travellers who use HKG as a transit point but it never panned out even before the current Hong Kong situation. The VS alliance was really a last resort solution but the current political tension in Hong Kong means the transit business is finished and there is no end in sight. It would take years to recover even if it does. Do VA really have the money and patience to wait? I don't think so.

What worries me is that the new CEO has not made any major decisions after many months in the job which could mean that there is very little he could do. The airline is screwed by Borghetti.
 
syd747
Posts: 4
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:05 am

Flights return to Far North West NSW skies, Flypelican (FP) operates SYD-CAZ and CAZ-DBO with Metro 32 (19 seater), while AirLink to fly DBO-BRK, DBO-WGE with Piper Chieftain (9 seater)
https://www.dailyliberal.com.au/story/6 ... ub/?cs=112
 
moa999
Posts: 553
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:16 am

CraigAnderson wrote:
QF images of its new B747-8F are at https://www.dropbox.com/sh/82jlet5by54y ... VNwsa?dl=0
Very selective angles.

The main livery is Atlas Air, including the blue engines.
 
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RyanairGuru
Posts: 7898
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:57 am

syd747 wrote:
Flights return to Far North West NSW skies, Flypelican (FP) operates SYD-CAZ and CAZ-DBO with Metro 32 (19 seater), while AirLink to fly DBO-BRK, DBO-WGE with Piper Chieftain (9 seater)
https://www.dailyliberal.com.au/story/6 ... ub/?cs=112


Pedantic point, FlyPelican are flying J31s not Metroliners.

It's really good to see these new routes. Cobar hasn't had service since Brindabella went under. Bourke hasn't had air services for years and years but I can't recall when service ended. I'm not sure that Walgett and Lightning Ridge have had air service this century!
Worked Hard, Flew Right
 
Flyingsottsman
Posts: 725
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2010 12:32 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:35 am

I would love to see those freighters in full Qantas colours, they would look stunning. Would QF make money with a dedicated cargo fleet, like Singapore Cargo and Cathay Pacific cargo operate?
 
Qantas16
Posts: 698
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Tue Aug 27, 2019 4:24 pm

RyanairGuru wrote:
syd747 wrote:
Flights return to Far North West NSW skies, Flypelican (FP) operates SYD-CAZ and CAZ-DBO with Metro 32 (19 seater), while AirLink to fly DBO-BRK, DBO-WGE with Piper Chieftain (9 seater)
https://www.dailyliberal.com.au/story/6 ... ub/?cs=112


Pedantic point, FlyPelican are flying J31s not Metroliners.

It's really good to see these new routes. Cobar hasn't had service since Brindabella went under. Bourke hasn't had air services for years and years but I can't recall when service ended. I'm not sure that Walgett and Lightning Ridge have had air service this century!


Cobar was served by AirLink/Rex between 2015 and 2017 on the B1900D

Source: https://www.dailyliberal.com.au/story/5 ... r-service/

Though I agree it's great to see these destinations getting services again!
 
getluv
Posts: 518
Joined: Thu Jun 11, 2015 12:11 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Tue Aug 27, 2019 11:17 pm

VA Results are in: A$315m loss.

Redundancies galore. Way worse than the guidance than they provided in May.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/compani ... 52law.html
I'm that bad type.
 
CityRail
Posts: 57
Joined: Thu Jun 23, 2016 1:26 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Tue Aug 27, 2019 11:33 pm

getluv wrote:
VA Results are in: A$315m loss.

Redundancies galore. Way worse than the guidance than they provided in May.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/compani ... 52law.html


The thing is EBITDA is decreasing, that a worry.

Also VAH has way too much cash, (1.7 Billion), I wonder if they can repurchase some shares to reduce the complex board structure, yet it will significantly draw up the D/E ratio.

Withdrawing from certain markets? Perhaps withdrawal from some NZ markets? And keep only SYD-HKG?

I would agree that VAH need some deep restructuring to ensure the business growth they enjoy will return in profit.

Perhaps this would be a good time to consider investing into VAH?
 
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SCFlyer
Posts: 290
Joined: Tue Oct 23, 2018 11:14 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Tue Aug 27, 2019 11:42 pm

The HKG decision courtesy of HNA/HX is now closer to untenable (if not untenable).

NZ is a very marginal market for VA, although the NZ operation as a whole is loss making with the NZ spat not helping them.
At most VA should really be keeping East Coast-AKL, BNE/MEL-CHC and BNE-WLG as part of their alliance/JVs with their partners (e.g SQ, DL, HX, etc).
The current OOL-AKL flight without looking at the loads/yields could be moved up to BNE.
IIRC NTL is subsidising the NTL-AKL seasonal flights, although I can't see that lasting once the subsidy ends.
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