Same fate as Ansett.
Virgin Australia would probably be ligquidated in that scenario but some private equity will snap up Tiger. With their low cost base and a substantial amount of capacity out of the market they would be well placed to thrive... what's old would be new again
Tigerair will very likely be rebranded in that scenario. No way any potential buyer will want to keep paying Tesamek royalties for the Tigerair name.
And how many people would change their choice of airline if VA removed Virgin from their brand name tomorrow? Probably no one! How is paying Richard Brandson royalities justified?
My guess? Long term marketing agreement. He only has a 10 percent stake in the company now and notice he doesn't bother come down
to Australia all the time anymore? It appears it's not worth his time/kind of pointless as long as the royalty cheques keep on flowing
in. He's already lost 3 virgin branded airlines before, it's business. The trouble for VA is, each one of their major shareholders will want
things largely focusing on them. That prevents something like one of them rebranding it as a franchise the way British Airways do in South
Africa with Comair. Too much time has gone buy now to bother buy the old Ansett brand and use that, not much value left in it now.
The only couple of things I an think of is:
1.Spin off tiger... left VA mainline fail. This would probably work, with the help of some investors. Unlikely to be popular with the shareholders
and probably only happen if VA files for bankruptcy.
2. One major airline buys out the others.
3. The entire assets are all sold off and a carrier like Alliance snaps some of them up cheap and starts a more regular
scheduled service. Although that sounds a bit out there, Alliance has made a hell of a lot more money in the last
decade than VA.
Either way I think they're in for rough times ahead. Etihad has shown with its other foreign investments it's no longer willing
to tolerate large losses, Singapore might be more so and perhaps their best hope but they won't want to see any of a return
to a low cost type of operation and close down lounges etc they pass their pax on or turn away business pax back to the
Qantas frequent flyer program, and the Chinese carriers haven't really been well exploited.