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Obzerva
Posts: 501
Joined: Wed Jan 11, 2017 3:48 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Thu Aug 29, 2019 8:34 am

getluv wrote:
qf2220 wrote:
eta unknown wrote:
A few posters above have commented that more codesharing etc. with VA and other carriers outside their ownership sphere should be done. FYI many have tried and been knocked back- on orders from SQ.


Interesting. Wonder if the ACCC might have a view on this....


Probably none. After all it was a management decision.


I think this is the entire reason why EY is still hanging in there, if SQ are essentially vetoing potential new codeshares, I'm pretty sure EY can see them having their tap turned off by SQ if EY no longer had a financial stake.

Given EY's financial situation, I think their Australian operations would be greatly reduced if they couldn't rely on bums on seats from VA's customers.

Having said that if SQ was to sell, I would imagine EY would be keen to do the same, so essentially EY an SQ are both in it at the moment, not wanting to blink because they know what the other will want to do.
 
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SCFlyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Thu Aug 29, 2019 9:58 am

Obzerva wrote:
getluv wrote:
qf2220 wrote:

Interesting. Wonder if the ACCC might have a view on this....


Probably none. After all it was a management decision.


I think this is the entire reason why EY is still hanging in there, if SQ are essentially vetoing potential new codeshares, I'm pretty sure EY can see them having their tap turned off by SQ if EY no longer had a financial stake.

Given EY's financial situation, I think their Australian operations would be greatly reduced if they couldn't rely on bums on seats from VA's customers.

Having said that if SQ was to sell, I would imagine EY would be keen to do the same, so essentially EY an SQ are both in it at the moment, not wanting to blink because they know what the other will want to do.


Which does make people wonder. Was SQ the 'Real Culprit" behind VA declining to join any of two available major Airline alliances all those years ago?? (prior to the consecutive years of losses and the eventual NZ spat)

While it may be understandable in SQ's case (VA's is theirs and the fellow shareholders (at the time) alone), it could be seen as "selfish" by analysts as some may see it as "stifling" further growth for VA if SQ were veto-ing all potential partners for VA all those years ago in favour of themselves (and their fellow co-owners). VX and DL were already partners prior to SQ and NZ getting involved in VA via equity, so it could be seen that there wasn't much the shareholders could do (to get 'rid' of those two) at the time.
 
getluv
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:51 am

cam747 wrote:
The only thing more predictable than Virgin positing an annual loss, is the queue of the same a.net users who come out to stick the boot in, pedal wild conspiracy theories about JB’s boardroom antics, and yearn for the airline to change back to Virgin Blue.


Probably not as predictable as posts like this.

I think people are just offering their 2 cents worth (like you would expect on a forum) on the current situation which you have to admit is quite dire. I also don’t think people are putting the boot in. The concerns being expressed over the past 50 posts are pretty much the same being expressed by aviation journalists and enthusiasts, and financial advisors in the media over the past 36 hours.

Personally, I think VA were unlucky with the AUD falling and fuel costs rising. On underlying basis, they would have been profitable. Also a lot of airlines are suffering due to the current fiscal environment.
I'm that bad type.
 
downdata
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Thu Aug 29, 2019 11:16 am

getluv wrote:
cam747 wrote:
The only thing more predictable than Virgin positing an annual loss, is the queue of the same a.net users who come out to stick the boot in, pedal wild conspiracy theories about JB’s boardroom antics, and yearn for the airline to change back to Virgin Blue.


Probably not as predictable as posts like this.

I think people are just offering their 2 cents worth (like you would expect on a forum) on the current situation which you have to admit is quite dire. I also don’t think people are putting the boot in. The concerns being expressed over the past 50 posts are pretty much the same being expressed by aviation journalists and enthusiasts, and financial advisors in the media over the past 36 hours.

Personally, I think VA were unlucky with the AUD falling and fuel costs rising. On underlying basis, they would have been profitable. Also a lot of airlines are suffering due to the current fiscal environment.


Fuel cost rising? If they cant profit when WTI at $50/bbl, imagine how they’d do when crude is at 150 again?
 
Pcoder
Posts: 168
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Thu Aug 29, 2019 11:51 am

The numerous issues with Virgin occurred before JB joined and in his reign.

One example was the purchase of the 77Ws, they are too large for a new long haul entrant. They should have leased a340s which although a fuel guzzler, would have been available and allowed them to start and after a couple of years be able to be returned to the lessor when the 787/a350s became available.

The virtual alliance that they have is a big failing, missing huge areas (ie North Asia) and lacking the overall network compared to Qantas. You aren't going to entice a good amount of the frequent flyers without the coverage.

The change of fleet composition with the Ejets and ATR wouldn't have helped there performance. The order for 737 Maxs could have waited as they still have a lot of young jets. They should also cut down on some of their sport sponsorships (Ansett made the same mistake).
 
Obzerva
Posts: 501
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:05 pm

SCFlyer wrote:
Obzerva wrote:
getluv wrote:

Probably none. After all it was a management decision.


I think this is the entire reason why EY is still hanging in there, if SQ are essentially vetoing potential new codeshares, I'm pretty sure EY can see them having their tap turned off by SQ if EY no longer had a financial stake.

Given EY's financial situation, I think their Australian operations would be greatly reduced if they couldn't rely on bums on seats from VA's customers.

Having said that if SQ was to sell, I would imagine EY would be keen to do the same, so essentially EY an SQ are both in it at the moment, not wanting to blink because they know what the other will want to do.


Which does make people wonder. Was SQ the 'Real Culprit" behind VA declining to join any of two available major Airline alliances all those years ago?? (prior to the consecutive years of losses and the eventual NZ spat)

While it may be understandable in SQ's case (VA's is theirs and the fellow shareholders (at the time) alone), it could be seen as "selfish" by analysts as some may see it as "stifling" further growth for VA if SQ were veto-ing all potential partners for VA all those years ago in favour of themselves (and their fellow co-owners). VX and DL were already partners prior to SQ and NZ getting involved in VA via equity, so it could be seen that there wasn't much the shareholders could do (to get 'rid' of those two) at the time.


I'm not sure SQ is necessarily stifling growth as a whole, they just want to make sure their interests are looked after, so if anything they would be reining in anything is seen to directly compete against it's own interests.

Whilst SQ, EY and HNA group have been around, we've seen:
codesharing on AC
codesharing on SA
codesharing on VS
expanded codesharing on HA

None of the above (apart from VS) hurt those with a financial interest, VA just needs to find a few more interested parties that it could work with that grow VA's reach but don't compete, or remove traffic from the shareholders, NH or PR maybe?

The other obvious one being if the DPS route isn't profitable, it's time VA should start having a few conversations with Garuda and dropping DPS.

Having said all that, they can't codeshare themselves out of a loss, EY is proof of that.
 
getluv
Posts: 594
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:13 pm

downdata wrote:
getluv wrote:
cam747 wrote:
The only thing more predictable than Virgin positing an annual loss, is the queue of the same a.net users who come out to stick the boot in, pedal wild conspiracy theories about JB’s boardroom antics, and yearn for the airline to change back to Virgin Blue.


Probably not as predictable as posts like this.

I think people are just offering their 2 cents worth (like you would expect on a forum) on the current situation which you have to admit is quite dire. I also don’t think people are putting the boot in. The concerns being expressed over the past 50 posts are pretty much the same being expressed by aviation journalists and enthusiasts, and financial advisors in the media over the past 36 hours.

Personally, I think VA were unlucky with the AUD falling and fuel costs rising. On underlying basis, they would have been profitable. Also a lot of airlines are suffering due to the current fiscal environment.


Fuel cost rising? If they cant profit when WTI at $50/bbl, imagine how they’d do when crude is at 150 again?


The fall in crude didn’t drop until the second half of the financial year by then the AUD started to deteriorate.
I'm that bad type.
 
346fetish
Posts: 54
Joined: Thu Feb 22, 2018 12:00 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Thu Aug 29, 2019 1:02 pm

CityRail wrote:
346fetish wrote:
Air Canada VP of Global Sales and Alliances John MacLeod to take over Merren McArthur's position as VA Chief Commercial Officer effective 08OCT19.


That is very interesting.

Does that mean closer relationship between VA and AC then?

I really hope the Alliances strategy from Air Canada can be brought into Virgin Australia. Without proper alliances, VA is really difficult to survive in the long term.


Can't see how this means a closer relationship between VA and AC...
E.G. Don't see how Ben Smith's departure to AF-KLM made for a closer relationship between the group and AC.

Best,
346fetish
"BA have got waterfalls in their head office. The only time we have waterfalls in the Ryanair office is when the toilet leaks."
 
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eta unknown
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Thu Aug 29, 2019 2:44 pm

The AC codeshare took one heck of a long time to get over the line.
SQ couldn't stop the VA arrangement as there is a Branson arrangement in place. But any hook up with GA will be blocked.
As for alliances, VA has absolutely no cash to join one- they cost millions and then there's the problem of VA's res system which probably isn't complaint- that will take more millions more...
 
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CraigAnderson
Posts: 600
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Fri Aug 30, 2019 7:55 am

eta unknown wrote:
As for alliances, VA has absolutely no cash to join one- they cost millions and then there's the problem of VA's res system which probably isn't complaint- that will take more millions more...


Didn't Virgin Australia rip out its old Navitaire res system and move to Sabre under JB? Or is Sabre still not alliance-ready?
 
xiaotung
Posts: 1087
Joined: Fri Jan 06, 2006 7:58 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Fri Aug 30, 2019 8:10 am

CraigAnderson wrote:
eta unknown wrote:
As for alliances, VA has absolutely no cash to join one- they cost millions and then there's the problem of VA's res system which probably isn't complaint- that will take more millions more...


Didn't Virgin Australia rip out its old Navitaire res system and move to Sabre under JB? Or is Sabre still not alliance-ready?


Sabre is definitely capable. ET in *A uses Sabre and quite a few SkyTeam members use it as well.
 
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eta unknown
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Fri Aug 30, 2019 8:13 am

Yes but there are many different versions/levels of SABRE- some don't cut it.
 
smi0006
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:47 am

eta unknown wrote:
Yes but there are many different versions/levels of SABRE- some don't cut it.


VAs version is the cheap one— why they have been so slow to implement a check in kiosk strategy.

V-Australia used to have Amadeus Altea like QF, and DJ and Pacific blue have Navtaire. But I believe QF and BA developed Altea with Amadeus, before BA pulled out and didn’t implement. QF however weren’t willing to let at that point VA use Altea domestically do they went for Sabre
 
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RyanairGuru
Posts: 8469
Joined: Wed Nov 01, 2006 3:59 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Fri Aug 30, 2019 12:51 pm

smi0006 wrote:
eta unknown wrote:
Yes but there are many different versions/levels of SABRE- some don't cut it.


VAs version is the cheap one


:checkmark:

The version of Sabre that VA use is only half a step up from Navitare. It is still very much a product oriented towards an LCC without interline traffic. This was a financial decision by VA. If they had been prepared to spend more money they could have acquired the fully functional system that other airlines use. The limitations that VA face in areas such as re-accommodation and interline handling (or, heaven forbid, re-accommodation on an interline sector) is entirely of their own making.
Worked Hard, Flew Right
 
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SCFlyer
Posts: 633
Joined: Tue Oct 23, 2018 11:14 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Sat Aug 31, 2019 3:47 am

In addition to that the VA interline partners are fairly limited as well. Possibly the reason why VA's interline partners are limited are likely also under the "orders" of SQ and EY, if the ownership cartel 'veto's are to go by.

Which IMO also was more than a "hindrance" to VA than a benefit, making VA seen more like a "SQ/EY" plaything than a business. A decision is likely come to bite them later on as VA can't fill the gaps internationally (regardless if they reduce VAi drastically or in the (unlikely) case of shutting down VAi entirely") from looking at the "the diminishing pool of potential partners' without the approval of the ownership cartel.
 
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Goodbye
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Sat Aug 31, 2019 4:46 am

log0008 wrote:
VietJet Air has signed a MOU with AVV. Hopefully, this will be Avalons second of many international services. Note, however, Brisbane also has a MOU with Vietjet but we haven't heard anything. Also aware of 2 our carriers which Avalon are in talks with.



https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/natio ... 1ed70e161b


I might be a bit biased here (SE QLD based & have a Vietnamese wife), but I would have thought that BNE would make much more sense than a third service to Vietnam from Victoria? Currently JQ and VN both fly from MEL to SGN. BNE still has no direct connection to the country.
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eamondzhang
Posts: 1876
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2010 8:23 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Sat Aug 31, 2019 5:37 am

Goodbye wrote:
log0008 wrote:
VietJet Air has signed a MOU with AVV. Hopefully, this will be Avalons second of many international services. Note, however, Brisbane also has a MOU with Vietjet but we haven't heard anything. Also aware of 2 our carriers which Avalon are in talks with.



https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/natio ... 1ed70e161b


I might be a bit biased here (SE QLD based & have a Vietnamese wife), but I would have thought that BNE would make much more sense than a third service to Vietnam from Victoria? Currently JQ and VN both fly from MEL to SGN. BNE still has no direct connection to the country.

Don't kick me if I'm wrong but I would bet 1c that it is also the result of a much smaller market - BNE isn't connected that well to SE Asia after all, with MH/D7 just came back, TG is always small and no GA whatsoever.

Having said that if this is the case, it could make VietJet's potential mre appealing as it could utilise A321neo, something that VN doesn't have at the moment.

Michael
 
Qantas16
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Sat Aug 31, 2019 6:21 am

eamondzhang wrote:
Goodbye wrote:
log0008 wrote:
VietJet Air has signed a MOU with AVV. Hopefully, this will be Avalons second of many international services. Note, however, Brisbane also has a MOU with Vietjet but we haven't heard anything. Also aware of 2 our carriers which Avalon are in talks with.



https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/natio ... 1ed70e161b


I might be a bit biased here (SE QLD based & have a Vietnamese wife), but I would have thought that BNE would make much more sense than a third service to Vietnam from Victoria? Currently JQ and VN both fly from MEL to SGN. BNE still has no direct connection to the country.

Don't kick me if I'm wrong but I would bet 1c that it is also the result of a much smaller market - BNE isn't connected that well to SE Asia after all, with MH/D7 just came back, TG is always small and no GA whatsoever.

Having said that if this is the case, it could make VietJet's potential mre appealing as it could utilise A321neo, something that VN doesn't have at the moment.

Michael


Unless VietJet is getting some XLRs or some LRs in low density config, then they won't be flying any A321neo's to BNE nonstop. That would then mean a stop somewhere along the way (DPS? DRW?), in which case the already low yielding flight becomes even lower yielding. VietJet won't be appearing in either AVV or BNE any time soon.
 
DavidByrne
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Sat Aug 31, 2019 9:10 am

SCFlyer wrote:
. . . without the approval of the ownership cartel.

Usually, we call them shareholders.
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
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ClassicLover
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Sat Aug 31, 2019 9:59 am

smi0006 wrote:
V-Australia used to have Amadeus Altea like QF, and DJ and Pacific blue have Navtaire. But I believe QF and BA developed Altea with Amadeus, before BA pulled out and didn’t implement. QF however weren’t willing to let at that point VA use Altea domestically do they went for Sabre


I thought that some of Altea had been implemented by BA, just not the whole thing. I didn't know that QF and BA developed it with Amadeus though!
I do enjoy a spot of flying, especially when it's not in economy!
 
FromCDGtoSYD
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:36 am

eamondzhang wrote:

Having said that if this is the case, it could make VietJet's potential mre appealing as it could utilise A321neo, something that VN doesn't have at the moment.

Michael


VN actually does have A321neos
 
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qf789
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Sat Aug 31, 2019 11:45 am

Please continue discussion in Australian Aviation Thread September 2019

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1430403
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