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CaliguyNYC
Posts: 1298
Joined: Tue Sep 27, 2016 7:27 pm

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Wed Aug 14, 2019 2:25 pm

hohd wrote:
srkSJC wrote:
Some of my own thoughts on the AA starting to plan for a flight to India. I will give a backdrop to this and then come to my points.

1. AA has been generating lot of buzz about starting a direct non-stop flight to India for a very long time. Lot of planning has gone into this. In 2015 and 2016 they hired an Indian American chef for revamping menus (though nothing special came out for India flights out of that but this was done).
2. After Delta announced that they are starting a direct flight to Mumbai post the settlement with ME3, AA bosses announced that they will do the same but aircraft, location, pricing power are all being needed to be looked into. They promised to announce a route to India with bookings as soon as that exercise is completed.
3. AA had recently put out a teaser in the online travel world that there is going to be a big announcement coming from them which led to the flying community (aviation geeks and frequent flyers) into a berserk mode. Seems the twitter handle is simply reporting on the imminent internal moves from that front.
4. Texas Governor had led a long business trip to India (around 2010-2011) to secure a direct non-stop route to India and Air India had indeed put their best foot forward but then story about Air India is less said the better. Amongst incentives offered was substantial reduction in airport charges. AA being a contender for that is or cannot be ruled out ( whether that alone helps to start a direct Dallas-Fort Worth to Delhi flight is another issue for another day).
5. Air India used to have an interline agreement with AA for its ORD-DEL flights and i have seen many India Airlines (IC) and Air India passengers connecting at Terminal 2 in 2008-2009 time period. No question that if Air India lives to see AA landing from Texas that arrangement will not be present again(ticking clock on the now almost impending sale in October 2019). In any case Air India needs strong US partners and AA fulfills that role in entire southern US and big chunk of US midwest ( west of mississippi atleast){ east of it can and does connect through DTW, BOS, JFK, ORD, IAD through ME3 or Sky Team, Star Alliance}. Similar is the case for AA in Delhi (connecting) to Assam, Telengana, Uttar Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka. High capacity A-321NEO and A-320NEO could be deployed to uplift connecting cargo and passenger to the AA flight. In any case DEL has turned out to be a good hub and is nice efficient airport too.

Now my views on this new but 'interesting route planning'

I recently travelled from Bay Area to Southern Connecticut via PHL. While PHL is building up to be an important hub for AA but it cannot be a substitute hub in place of NYC airports. There is no lounge of AA which is fully complete. Terminal transfer is clumsy. Space is constrained there. Weather related issues is something affects majorly (yes it affects NYC airports too but there the network has a good foundation). AA has started to climb down from NYC airports specially Kennedy Intl. for a long time over a decade despite being a major player over there. Major international flights in east coast are all from PHL and not NYC airports. Domestic connections have also gone down(some reports say that it is usually seasonal but for AA NYC should not be seasonal at all). And the major catchment areas for USA to India in the east coast would not like to travel to PHL to fly to India specially to south. Instead they prefer ME3 as one stop. Overall airport experience is a sore point. TSA is also not so good over in PHL. Yes as a hub AA has done well but it is not going to be self sustainable for a direct India flight when a family of five or six travel with multiple bags.

Coming to DFW, so on my way back i flew in from LaGuardia to DFW and then to Bay Area. LaGuardia is another recent graveyard of AA and now an omnipresent Delta fortress hub( no point lamenting in detail about it here since this is India focussed forum). DFW location wise is well connected to all the major markets that has good Indian population ( Whole of California, Oregon, Washington, Utah, New Mexico, North Texas, Florida, Illinois, Missouri) and apart from the ones listed here. The airport is numero uno hub for AA, which allows for better management of flight disruptions, better TSA, better accommodation facilities than PHL, biggest pilot base and it operates all of its aircraft types from here. Ground staff is generally very well responsive. If the economics work out i dont see why this flight cannot be a roaring success.


About a year or two ago, I read in this forum that HYD is the No. 1 Indian city from DFW in traffic. Obviously AA cannot fly to HYD as connecting traffic at DFW would be higher to DEL than HYD. But if they can offer a smooth 1 stop service to HYD, they can capture a good amount of traffic which currently goes through EK, QR. BA does have 1 stop connection to HYD, so I don't know how this will impact their planning. AI offers the most connections out of DEL and AI may be more than willing to code share with AA as compared to UA. UK has limited service from DEL, but does connect all the major metros including HYD quite well.


Is DFW-HYD the number Indian city pair? I somehow doubt that. Could someone post the statistics. It seems like every time we speak of a US city to India, people say HYD is the #1 city pair. While I am not doubting that people from the HYD region have immigrated in large numbers to the US, my ground reality in the US has never been that people from there are the main drivers of India-US traffic for the vast majority of US cities (perhaps #1 to one major city). And to to be clear, I know they are a significant group but fact remains HYD has struggled to attract EU/US airlines that are mostly focused on India-US traffic.
 
ameya
Posts: 52
Joined: Wed Apr 25, 2007 8:46 pm

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Wed Aug 14, 2019 2:35 pm

Let’s face it — unless govt breathes life into UDAN urgently, it will die

Early last month, Minister of Civil Aviation (Independent Charge) Hardeep Singh Puri informed the Rajya Sabha about the status of UDAN (Ude Desh ka Aam Nagrik) scheme. A total of 705 routes have been awarded thus far of which 174 routes are operational. A dismal 24.7 percent!

The Regional Connectivity Scheme (RCS) was first mentioned in the National Civil Aviation Policy (NCAP) in 2016. Subsequently it went through some iteration before being launched in October 2016. The scheme has the best intentions in mind with the thought of Hawai Chappal in Hawai Jahaj predominantly aiming at subsidised travel from Tier-II and Tier-III cities helping grow trade, boost air traffic and connect cities to towns.

First jolt

The first round of RCS-UDAN saw bids from Air Odisha and Air Deccan – both of which were bidding without aircraft in fleet. While both of them couldn’t sustain the operations for more than one reason, Zoom Air lost the plot mid-way. That left Alliance Air – the regional arm of Air India, Spicejet and to a small extent Trujet – the Hyderabad-based regional carrier to take the UDAN scheme to success. However, a large percentage of routes were won by Air Odisha and Air Deccan which led to the success percentage being on the lower side.
 
CaliguyNYC
Posts: 1298
Joined: Tue Sep 27, 2016 7:27 pm

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Wed Aug 14, 2019 3:11 pm

ameya wrote:
Let’s face it — unless govt breathes life into UDAN urgently, it will die

Early last month, Minister of Civil Aviation (Independent Charge) Hardeep Singh Puri informed the Rajya Sabha about the status of UDAN (Ude Desh ka Aam Nagrik) scheme. A total of 705 routes have been awarded thus far of which 174 routes are operational. A dismal 24.7 percent!

The Regional Connectivity Scheme (RCS) was first mentioned in the National Civil Aviation Policy (NCAP) in 2016. Subsequently it went through some iteration before being launched in October 2016. The scheme has the best intentions in mind with the thought of Hawai Chappal in Hawai Jahaj predominantly aiming at subsidised travel from Tier-II and Tier-III cities helping grow trade, boost air traffic and connect cities to towns.

First jolt

The first round of RCS-UDAN saw bids from Air Odisha and Air Deccan – both of which were bidding without aircraft in fleet. While both of them couldn’t sustain the operations for more than one reason, Zoom Air lost the plot mid-way. That left Alliance Air – the regional arm of Air India, Spicejet and to a small extent Trujet – the Hyderabad-based regional carrier to take the UDAN scheme to success. However, a large percentage of routes were won by Air Odisha and Air Deccan which led to the success percentage being on the lower side.


Is it that they need to just work on the system and process or does it need to breath life into it? I think they just need to fix the system. The concept of subsidizing an air route to increase small town connectivity is quite normal and straight forward. I think this will work itself out in a few years.
 
Blerg
Posts: 5115
Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:42 am

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Wed Aug 14, 2019 9:12 pm

CaliguyNYC wrote:
Malayil wrote:
srkSJC wrote:

Whole of Balkans is an untapped gold mine. Croatia, Bosnia, Kosovo are all unexplored locations. Countries like Poland, Malta, Monaco, Cyprus are all waiting for indian tourists. Any airline smart enough to work out the best mode is going to be a king here.


Well I wouldn’t say those countries are unexplored. But unlike Serbia, those countries require visas to enter. That’s why Indian tourism to Serbia is increasing.


I've been to Serbia. I actually think it is a great place for Indians to visit if they do not have a EU visa. You get that European feel there. I actually think Indigo should be all over flights there. Too bad Indians can't visit Montenegro without a visa. That would be a great addition to a Serbian trip and let people see the beautiful coast.


Great to hear that, have you been recently to Serbia? I have to ask but how did you fly there?

Serbia has a deal with Bosnia and Montenegro to offer joint tours. I am sure they can do the same for Indians.
 
CaliguyNYC
Posts: 1298
Joined: Tue Sep 27, 2016 7:27 pm

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Wed Aug 14, 2019 9:33 pm

Blerg wrote:
CaliguyNYC wrote:
Malayil wrote:

Well I wouldn’t say those countries are unexplored. But unlike Serbia, those countries require visas to enter. That’s why Indian tourism to Serbia is increasing.


I've been to Serbia. I actually think it is a great place for Indians to visit if they do not have a EU visa. You get that European feel there. I actually think Indigo should be all over flights there. Too bad Indians can't visit Montenegro without a visa. That would be a great addition to a Serbian trip and let people see the beautiful coast.


Great to hear that, have you been recently to Serbia? I have to ask but how did you fly there?

Serbia has a deal with Bosnia and Montenegro to offer joint tours. I am sure they can do the same for Indians.


Yes from London. I am not based in India and have a US passport so no visa concern. Did Serbia and Montenegro in one trip. Was a followup from a Croatia trip
 
Blerg
Posts: 5115
Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:42 am

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Wed Aug 14, 2019 9:44 pm

CaliguyNYC wrote:
Blerg wrote:
CaliguyNYC wrote:

I've been to Serbia. I actually think it is a great place for Indians to visit if they do not have a EU visa. You get that European feel there. I actually think Indigo should be all over flights there. Too bad Indians can't visit Montenegro without a visa. That would be a great addition to a Serbian trip and let people see the beautiful coast.


Great to hear that, have you been recently to Serbia? I have to ask but how did you fly there?

Serbia has a deal with Bosnia and Montenegro to offer joint tours. I am sure they can do the same for Indians.


Yes from London. I am not based in India and have a US passport so no visa concern. Did Serbia and Montenegro in one trip. Was a followup from a Croatia trip


Cool, thanks!
 
edealinfo
Posts: 2780
Joined: Mon Jan 21, 2019 7:11 pm

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Wed Aug 14, 2019 11:50 pm

From Business Standard..

The Tata-Singapore Airlines joint venture Vistara’s losses nearly doubled to Rs 831 crore in 2018-19 (FY19) in a tough operating environment, which also saw its peers post weak results.
The airline, however, is expected to improve its financial performance in the current financial year, as it expands its network and gets a boost in premium-class occupancy following the closure of Jet Airways.
 
Malayil
Posts: 154
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 1:04 pm

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Thu Aug 15, 2019 1:41 am

Blerg wrote:
CaliguyNYC wrote:
Malayil wrote:

Well I wouldn’t say those countries are unexplored. But unlike Serbia, those countries require visas to enter. That’s why Indian tourism to Serbia is increasing.


I've been to Serbia. I actually think it is a great place for Indians to visit if they do not have a EU visa. You get that European feel there. I actually think Indigo should be all over flights there. Too bad Indians can't visit Montenegro without a visa. That would be a great addition to a Serbian trip and let people see the beautiful coast.


Great to hear that, have you been recently to Serbia? I have to ask but how did you fly there?

Serbia has a deal with Bosnia and Montenegro to offer joint tours. I am sure they can do the same for Indians.


The issue remains that Bosnia and Montenegro still require visas to enter their countries. Serbia, like Georgia, has seen a huge increase in Indian tourists because they have liberalised their visa regime for Indian citizens. I do not think Montenegro will liberalise in the future because they’re much further along in their path to EU membership, and the EU likes to see commonalities with the Schengen visa regime in prospective members.
 
edealinfo
Posts: 2780
Joined: Mon Jan 21, 2019 7:11 pm

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Thu Aug 15, 2019 3:05 am

Airlines hogging bilateral rights as a means to delay competition

https://www.bangaloreaviation.com/2019/ ... ition.html
 
edealinfo
Posts: 2780
Joined: Mon Jan 21, 2019 7:11 pm

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Thu Aug 15, 2019 3:07 am

Air India to add Colombo - Mumbai next month

http://www.dailynews.lk/2019/08/13/fina ... next-month
 
unnayan
Posts: 225
Joined: Sat Feb 02, 2013 10:57 pm

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Thu Aug 15, 2019 1:23 pm

edealinfo wrote:
Air India to add Colombo - Mumbai next month

http://www.dailynews.lk/2019/08/13/fina ... next-month
is

The English in this article is awesome :lol:
 
VTORD
Posts: 773
Joined: Sat Dec 22, 2012 9:45 pm

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Thu Aug 15, 2019 1:46 pm

unnayan wrote:

The English in this article is awesome :lol:

The "double digit" flights are quite the rage it seems... :hyper:
 
SATexan
Posts: 281
Joined: Wed Jul 22, 2009 6:49 pm

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Thu Aug 15, 2019 4:41 pm

CaliguyNYC wrote:
[Is DFW-HYD the number Indian city pair? I somehow doubt that. Could someone post the statistics. It seems like every time we speak of a US city to India, people say HYD is the #1 city pair. While I am not doubting that people from the HYD region have immigrated in large numbers to the US, my ground reality in the US has never been that people from there are the main drivers of India-US traffic for the vast majority of US cities (perhaps #1 to one major city). And to to be clear, I know they are a significant group but fact remains HYD has struggled to attract EU/US airlines that are mostly focused on India-US traffic.

DFW-HYD is indeed the No 1 Indian city pair out of the DFW area. If you go back 8-9 years (circa 2010), the O&D from DFW to DEL/BOM and HYD were pretty similar in the 28-35 PDEW range with DEL being the number 1 market and HYD just behind DEL and BOM. But HYD registered pretty impressive growth after 2011 and by 2014 it was already crossing 50 PDEW leaving DEL behind. I don't have the 2017/18 numbers but I wouldn't be surprised if DFW-HYD has already closed in or surpassed the DFW-Tokyo market (which is around 75 PDEW) since the DFW-India markets have shown 100-200% growth in a decades timeframe. However, there is very little premium demand from DFW-HYD and much of the traffic tends to be visitors, family members and students.
 
JOYA380B747
Posts: 794
Joined: Sun Mar 27, 2005 11:31 pm

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Thu Aug 15, 2019 5:18 pm

9w748capt wrote:

Interesting that UK is tied up with UA. You'd think UA-AI would be the natural pairing.


UA has systematically avoided interlining with AI forever. Before Jet's demise they used to interline with them, but never had anything with AI. Never really knew the real reason to this.
 
VTORD
Posts: 773
Joined: Sat Dec 22, 2012 9:45 pm

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Thu Aug 15, 2019 8:09 pm

Okay what am I missing here? 75 PDEW seems to be a very low number. Assuming DFW-DEL as the optimum stage length, DEL, BOM, MAA and BLR being lower than the #1 city pair you are looking at 300(?) PDEW DFW-India? Is that enough to sustain a non-stop ULH from a station that has service on EK, QR, BA and LH? Plus BOM/DEL bound UA 1-stops? And DL beginning in Dec?


JOYA380B747 wrote:
UA has systematically avoided interlining with AI forever. Before Jet's demise they used to interline with them, but never had anything with AI. Never really knew the real reason to this

Part of the reason could be their TATL JV with LH. UA and LH route a lot of USA traffic via each other to India. Not sure if LH ever code shared with 9W for the India-end feed and connections though.
 
SATexan
Posts: 281
Joined: Wed Jul 22, 2009 6:49 pm

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Thu Aug 15, 2019 8:28 pm

VTORD wrote:
Okay what am I missing here? 75 PDEW seems to be a very low number. Assuming DFW-DEL as the optimum stage length, DEL, BOM, MAA and BLR being lower than the #1 city pair you are looking at 300(?) PDEW DFW-India? Is that enough to sustain a non-stop ULH from a station that has service on EK, QR, BA and LH? Plus BOM/DEL bound UA 1-stops? And DL beginning in Dec?

The DFW-India PDEW numbers would be in the general range that you have mentioned. May be it is a bit more if you include more cities in India. Again, I am at a loss (and just as apprehensive as you are) to explain how a potential DFW-DEL would work for AA.

Non-stops do stimulate the routes to varying degrees. Unless AA has some corporate contracts in their kitty, I don't see a good enough reason to re-enter the Indian market from DFW, especially compared to their hubs in PHL or ORD. The stage length is simply too long and unlike routes such as IAH-BOM or SFO-BLR etc, I am not sure if there is a premium demand out of DFW to DEL. But then AA has built a behemoth of a hub in DFW and has managed to make a bunch of Asian destinations work; so who knows?
 
BHXRunway15
Posts: 47
Joined: Sat Mar 11, 2017 12:17 pm

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Thu Aug 15, 2019 10:13 pm

Air India restarted Amritsar - BHX today (15 August) after the long break.

Back to Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday direct and Delhi remains Monday, Wednesday and Sunday.

The much rumoured return of the Friday service which used to be Delhi but this time around is supposed to Amritsar is still not bookable.
 
edealinfo
Posts: 2780
Joined: Mon Jan 21, 2019 7:11 pm

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Thu Aug 15, 2019 11:38 pm

19 grounded Air India planes to be back in the air by October

https://www.google.com/amp/s/m.economic ... 691086.cms
 
edealinfo
Posts: 2780
Joined: Mon Jan 21, 2019 7:11 pm

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Thu Aug 15, 2019 11:47 pm

BHXRunway15 wrote:
Air India restarted Amritsar - BHX today (15 August) after the long break.

Back to Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday direct and Delhi remains Monday, Wednesday and Sunday.

The much rumoured return of the Friday service which used to be Delhi but this time around is supposed to Amritsar is still not bookable.


Congratulations to the Civil Aviation Minister for “bringing home the bacon” to his constituency
 
VTORD
Posts: 773
Joined: Sat Dec 22, 2012 9:45 pm

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Fri Aug 16, 2019 4:46 am

SATexan wrote:

Non-stops do stimulate the routes to varying degrees. Unless AA has some corporate contracts in their kitty, I don't see a good enough reason to re-enter the Indian market from DFW, especially compared to their hubs in PHL or ORD. The stage length is simply too long and unlike routes such as IAH-BOM or SFO-BLR etc, I am not sure if there is a premium demand out of DFW to DEL. But then AA has built a behemoth of a hub in DFW and has managed to make a bunch of Asian destinations work; so who knows?

Hmm..Any idea where they are basing their -9s? PHL or DFW? Any going to ORD? I know the -8s are in ORD. ORD - BOM perhaps on 787-9.?? Though ORD is a bit of bloodbath in all fairness!

edealinfo wrote:
19 grounded Air India planes to be back in the air by October

whereas it nixed plans to commence the New Delhi-Los Angeles service in this financial year

This is interesting! I haven't seen this discussed on this forum but I was in LA last December and met someone on Imperial Hill who told me AI was planning to launch LAX. But I had no other source other than a spotter I ran into so I just didn't pay attention to it...
 
edealinfo
Posts: 2780
Joined: Mon Jan 21, 2019 7:11 pm

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Fri Aug 16, 2019 12:52 pm

I always wonder where Air India will fly all those 19 grounded aircraft once they are back in the air by October. here are my best guesses:

Amritsar to Dubai
Amritsar to Singapore
Amritsar to Manchester
Amritsar to Hong Kong
Amritsar to Beijing
Amritsar to Disneyland

I am joking of course. I think this civil aviation minister is actually quite civilized compared to all such ministers in the last 30 years. He hasn’t hogged as much routes to his constituency as he, by virtue of his position, could.
 
edealinfo
Posts: 2780
Joined: Mon Jan 21, 2019 7:11 pm

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Fri Aug 16, 2019 8:33 pm

Jet creditors’ bill tab balloons to 31,000 crores....

“As hope for revival fades”. Really, only now they fade?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/wap.busine ... 186_1.html
 
edealinfo
Posts: 2780
Joined: Mon Jan 21, 2019 7:11 pm

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Fri Aug 16, 2019 8:43 pm

Vistara finally turns a corner as....
“Premium-economy and business-class fly high even as aviation sector slows”

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thehin ... 1.ece/amp/
 
edealinfo
Posts: 2780
Joined: Mon Jan 21, 2019 7:11 pm

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Sat Aug 17, 2019 12:53 pm

Talk about future planning.

CEBU Pacific may start Manila, Philippines to India use the a32o XLR from 2024

My sense is by then it may be too late as Indigo could probably do a BLR to MNL flight if aircraft range is an issue and if not DEL to MNL for which there is more demand

https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news ... a321neoxlr
 
vadodara
Posts: 1146
Joined: Mon Feb 20, 2017 7:45 pm

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Sat Aug 17, 2019 9:54 pm

SATexan wrote:
CaliguyNYC wrote:
[Is DFW-HYD the number Indian city pair? I somehow doubt that. Could someone post the statistics. It seems like every time we speak of a US city to India, people say HYD is the #1 city pair. While I am not doubting that people from the HYD region have immigrated in large numbers to the US, my ground reality in the US has never been that people from there are the main drivers of India-US traffic for the vast majority of US cities (perhaps #1 to one major city). And to to be clear, I know they are a significant group but fact remains HYD has struggled to attract EU/US airlines that are mostly focused on India-US traffic.

DFW-HYD is indeed the No 1 Indian city pair out of the DFW area. If you go back 8-9 years (circa 2010), the O&D from DFW to DEL/BOM and HYD were pretty similar in the 28-35 PDEW range with DEL being the number 1 market and HYD just behind DEL and BOM. But HYD registered pretty impressive growth after 2011 and by 2014 it was already crossing 50 PDEW leaving DEL behind. I don't have the 2017/18 numbers but I wouldn't be surprised if DFW-HYD has already closed in or surpassed the DFW-Tokyo market (which is around 75 PDEW) since the DFW-India markets have shown 100-200% growth in a decades timeframe. However, there is very little premium demand from DFW-HYD and much of the traffic tends to be visitors, family members and students.


DFW-HYD and possibly BLR are definitely strong markets. I however doubt they are stronger than HND. There are plenty of Japanese HQ in DFW for starters. Presence of JAL at the other hand also offers connections.
 
srkSJC
Posts: 75
Joined: Sun Jun 23, 2019 5:48 am

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Sun Aug 18, 2019 4:25 am

vadodara wrote:
SATexan wrote:
CaliguyNYC wrote:
[Is DFW-HYD the number Indian city pair? I somehow doubt that. Could someone post the statistics. It seems like every time we speak of a US city to India, people say HYD is the #1 city pair. While I am not doubting that people from the HYD region have immigrated in large numbers to the US, my ground reality in the US has never been that people from there are the main drivers of India-US traffic for the vast majority of US cities (perhaps #1 to one major city). And to to be clear, I know they are a significant group but fact remains HYD has struggled to attract EU/US airlines that are mostly focused on India-US traffic.

DFW-HYD is indeed the No 1 Indian city pair out of the DFW area. If you go back 8-9 years (circa 2010), the O&D from DFW to DEL/BOM and HYD were pretty similar in the 28-35 PDEW range with DEL being the number 1 market and HYD just behind DEL and BOM. But HYD registered pretty impressive growth after 2011 and by 2014 it was already crossing 50 PDEW leaving DEL behind. I don't have the 2017/18 numbers but I wouldn't be surprised if DFW-HYD has already closed in or surpassed the DFW-Tokyo market (which is around 75 PDEW) since the DFW-India markets have shown 100-200% growth in a decades timeframe. However, there is very little premium demand from DFW-HYD and much of the traffic tends to be visitors, family members and students.


DFW-HYD and possibly BLR are definitely strong markets. I however doubt they are stronger than HND. There are plenty of Japanese HQ in DFW for starters. Presence of JAL at the other hand also offers connections.


Most new US airlines have been granted slots for Haneda and not Tokyo Narita so very limited chance of anyone connecting from say Madras or Bangalore to AA and then onwards to DFW. Having said that JAL to Narita is not bad to connect to Haneda. From my knowledge public transport is very efficient in Tokyo and transfers from Tokyo Narita to Haneda is under one hour or so on public transport. Dont see a reason for travellers not using it. For everything else AA could interline with AI on DFW-DEL and then multiple frequencies can take them to Hyderabad, Kannur, Bangalore, Madras, Trichy, Kochi, Vizag, Kadappa, Mysore, Coimbatore. Longer layovers maybe but then major metro routes should not face any problems. It should be a win win for all travellers. I dont want to be sounding rude or anything but there is impractical demand that each southern city must get direct flights to US or EU even if the economics does not work out for the airlines. DEL or BOM is indeed a good hub (yes chinks are there to be straightened out but it is workable airport) and there should not be any issue in connecting through them. And Gulf carriers or Japanese, Chinese carriers are anyways ready to haul them if they want better service on demand.
 
srkSJC
Posts: 75
Joined: Sun Jun 23, 2019 5:48 am

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Sun Aug 18, 2019 4:32 am

SATexan wrote:
VTORD wrote:
Okay what am I missing here? 75 PDEW seems to be a very low number. Assuming DFW-DEL as the optimum stage length, DEL, BOM, MAA and BLR being lower than the #1 city pair you are looking at 300(?) PDEW DFW-India? Is that enough to sustain a non-stop ULH from a station that has service on EK, QR, BA and LH? Plus BOM/DEL bound UA 1-stops? And DL beginning in Dec?

The DFW-India PDEW numbers would be in the general range that you have mentioned. May be it is a bit more if you include more cities in India. Again, I am at a loss (and just as apprehensive as you are) to explain how a potential DFW-DEL would work for AA.

Non-stops do stimulate the routes to varying degrees. Unless AA has some corporate contracts in their kitty, I don't see a good enough reason to re-enter the Indian market from DFW, especially compared to their hubs in PHL or ORD. The stage length is simply too long and unlike routes such as IAH-BOM or SFO-BLR etc, I am not sure if there is a premium demand out of DFW to DEL. But then AA has built a behemoth of a hub in DFW and has managed to make a bunch of Asian destinations work; so who knows?


My guess is that major indian expat population would not like to travel all the way to Philly to fly to India when they can easily fly to Newark or NYC or Boston giving them way better options. Plus these are way bigger hubs than one Philly. Chicago OHare is not going to work because AA knows it does not have the long term growth potential having burnt their fingers in its earlier avtaar. Only option is DFW. And 787-9, 787-8 are based in DFW as well. Not sure about 787-10 though.
 
User avatar
CollegeAviator
Posts: 558
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Sun Aug 18, 2019 4:49 am

edealinfo wrote:
Talk about future planning.

CEBU Pacific may start Manila, Philippines to India use the a32o XLR from 2024

My sense is by then it may be too late as Indigo could probably do a BLR to MNL flight if aircraft range is an issue and if not DEL to MNL for which there is more demand

https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news ... a321neoxlr

PAL made some noise about starting a flight with their A321 NEOs, never really went past scheduling, if I remember correctly..
 
srkSJC
Posts: 75
Joined: Sun Jun 23, 2019 5:48 am

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Sun Aug 18, 2019 5:39 am

edealinfo wrote:
Talk about future planning.

CEBU Pacific may start Manila, Philippines to India use the a32o XLR from 2024

My sense is by then it may be too late as Indigo could probably do a BLR to MNL flight if aircraft range is an issue and if not DEL to MNL for which there is more demand

https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news ... a321neoxlr

These are wishful statements. Cebu is a major tourist destination for travellers from AMD and BOM for over a decade but no airline was able to sustain a direct flight from either of these two cities. One stop yes but not direct. Garuda famously started one stop service via Bangkok to BOM but it shut down later. Air Asia X also wanted to start a direct Bali-BOM flight but it never materialised for a longer time. Traffic to Manila is actually to the famous beach resorts which are not populated by overcrowded Thai resorts. Any smart airline which taps into this demand is going to laugh all the way to bank.
 
srkSJC
Posts: 75
Joined: Sun Jun 23, 2019 5:48 am

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Sun Aug 18, 2019 5:46 am

edealinfo wrote:
BHXRunway15 wrote:
Air India restarted Amritsar - BHX today (15 August) after the long break.

Back to Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday direct and Delhi remains Monday, Wednesday and Sunday.

The much rumoured return of the Friday service which used to be Delhi but this time around is supposed to Amritsar is still not bookable.


Congratulations to the Civil Aviation Minister for “bringing home the bacon” to his constituency


Actual fun would be Amritsar to Manchester. Being a major industrial hub for textiles which is known as Ludhiana and close by to Amritsar, there is actually a latent demand for business travellers to Manchester and Birmingham. Similar is the case for Amsterdam, Brussels with doab region of Punjab. Yes the numbers dont support a service from Amritsar to these places , but i know atleast 10 people who have a regular twice in a month travel scheduled to these two locations in EU and once a month to either Manchester and Birmingham. Point is how to service this demand.
 
srkSJC
Posts: 75
Joined: Sun Jun 23, 2019 5:48 am

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Sun Aug 18, 2019 6:38 am

edealinfo wrote:
I always wonder where Air India will fly all those 19 grounded aircraft once they are back in the air by October. here are my best guesses:

Amritsar to Dubai
Amritsar to Singapore
Amritsar to Manchester
Amritsar to Hong Kong
Amritsar to Beijing
Amritsar to Disneyland

I am joking of course. I think this civil aviation minister is actually quite civilized compared to all such ministers in the last 30 years. He hasn’t hogged as much routes to his constituency as he, by virtue of his position, could.


AI may not want to start it but Amritsar-HKG is viable route provided chinese airspace north of Tibet SAR/through Lhasa valley region is allowed. That is the only viable route. Some regular contributors will say that there is flight safety regulation for that but chinese carriers regularly fly through this territory and have no issue. aircraft, crew training, and geo-politics is what makes or break a flight { sometimes}....
 
SATexan
Posts: 281
Joined: Wed Jul 22, 2009 6:49 pm

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Sun Aug 18, 2019 4:55 pm

vadodara wrote:
DFW-HYD and possibly BLR are definitely strong markets. I however doubt they are stronger than HND. There are plenty of Japanese HQ in DFW for starters. Presence of JAL at the other hand also offers connections.


I know it is hard to believe!! But DFW-HYD market (PDEW numbers) is definitely in the same range as DFW-Tokyo. Again, I don't have the 2017/18 numbers, but still, DFW-HYD market has grown astronomically in the last 10 years. However, here are some reasons why DFW-TYO has 3 daily flights while even a single flight from DFW-HYD would be very questionable.

1. As you rightly point out, there is a strong premium demand out of DFW due to the presence of Japanese HQ in the DFW area. HYD lacks premium demand to most cities in North America and Europe.

2. Shorter stage length - DFW-HYD is 2500 miles longer than TYO making it substantially more expensive to operate it especially when the fares / stage-length adjusted revenues are on the lower end.

3. DFW-TYO flights are well timed to receive passenger and cargo feed from cities like Sao Paulo, Santiago and Buenos Aires. Japan to Brazil market is actually very healthy and Chile is a known source for cargo. I wanna admit that I know next to nothing about cargo coming out of HYD. But I do know that Central and South America are not significant passenger or cargo sources to India in General.

4. Massive connection opportunities at both ends (DFW and TYO).
 
SATexan
Posts: 281
Joined: Wed Jul 22, 2009 6:49 pm

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Sun Aug 18, 2019 5:09 pm

srkSJC wrote:
SATexan wrote:
My guess is that major indian expat population would not like to travel all the way to Philly to fly to India when they can easily fly to Newark or NYC or Boston giving them way better options. Plus these are way bigger hubs than one Philly. Chicago OHare is not going to work because AA knows it does not have the long term growth potential having burnt their fingers in its earlier avtaar. Only option is DFW. And 787-9, 787-8 are based in DFW as well. Not sure about 787-10 though.


We are talking about AA starting a flight to India. So Newark is out of question. The AA hub at Philly is significantly bigger than their focus city operations in JFK or BOS. Philly - India is itself a pretty good market. There are tons' of Indians in South New Jersey, Delaware, Eastern and Southern Pennsylvania and the suburbs of Baltimore/DC that are well within the driving distance to Philly airport. Plus, Philly is more ideally located to capture India bound passengers from Florida, Carolinas and even the midwest.

But DFW is a massive hub for AA and and the market to India is fast growing. But, like I have mentioned in previous post, I am little apprehensive about AA trying to reenter the Indian market using an ULH route such as DFW-DEL while they (theoretically) could get similar or better results doing something like PHL/ORD-DEL, both of which are 700-800 miles shorter than DFW.
 
edealinfo
Posts: 2780
Joined: Mon Jan 21, 2019 7:11 pm

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Sun Aug 18, 2019 5:48 pm

SATexan wrote:
srkSJC wrote:
SATexan wrote:
My guess is that major indian expat population would not like to travel all the way to Philly to fly to India when they can easily fly to Newark or NYC or Boston giving them way better options. Plus these are way bigger hubs than one Philly. Chicago OHare is not going to work because AA knows it does not have the long term growth potential having burnt their fingers in its earlier avtaar. Only option is DFW. And 787-9, 787-8 are based in DFW as well. Not sure about 787-10 though.


We are talking about AA starting a flight to India. So Newark is out of question. The AA hub at Philly is significantly bigger than their focus city operations in JFK or BOS. Philly - India is itself a pretty good market. There are tons' of Indians in South New Jersey, Delaware, Eastern and Southern Pennsylvania and the suburbs of Baltimore/DC that are well within the driving distance to Philly airport. Plus, Philly is more ideally located to capture India bound passengers from Florida, Carolinas and even the midwest.

But DFW is a massive hub for AA and and the market to India is fast growing. But, like I have mentioned in previous post, I am little apprehensive about AA trying to reenter the Indian market using an ULH route such as DFW-DEL while they (theoretically) could get similar or better results doing something like PHL/ORD-DEL, both of which are 700-800 miles shorter than DFW.


If the difference is a mere 700 to 800 miles (DFW- DEL Vs. PHL/ORD -DEL), why would it make a world of a difference in terms of success or failure of such a long flight? It is long, regardless. Why would 1 more hour of flying time make THE DIFFERENCE?
 
9w748capt
Posts: 1840
Joined: Sat Feb 02, 2008 10:27 am

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Sun Aug 18, 2019 5:56 pm

edealinfo wrote:
SATexan wrote:
srkSJC wrote:


We are talking about AA starting a flight to India. So Newark is out of question. The AA hub at Philly is significantly bigger than their focus city operations in JFK or BOS. Philly - India is itself a pretty good market. There are tons' of Indians in South New Jersey, Delaware, Eastern and Southern Pennsylvania and the suburbs of Baltimore/DC that are well within the driving distance to Philly airport. Plus, Philly is more ideally located to capture India bound passengers from Florida, Carolinas and even the midwest.

But DFW is a massive hub for AA and and the market to India is fast growing. But, like I have mentioned in previous post, I am little apprehensive about AA trying to reenter the Indian market using an ULH route such as DFW-DEL while they (theoretically) could get similar or better results doing something like PHL/ORD-DEL, both of which are 700-800 miles shorter than DFW.


If the difference is a mere 700 to 800 miles (DFW- DEL Vs. PHL/ORD -DEL), why would it make a world of a difference in terms of success or failure of such a long flight? It is long, regardless. Why would 1 more hour of flying time make THE DIFFERENCE?


Agreed. I think some of you are vastly underestimating the power of AA's DFW hub. It is massive with a capital M. AA's intl presence there is truly impressive - multiple dailies to Tokyo and daily PVG, PEK, ICN. Plus their ever-growing Europe presence. Don't forget LAX is only 2.5 hours away. Loyal AA folks have no problem flying LAX-DFW and connecting there - I would say connecting at DFW is far preferable to say, LHR. The PDEW numbers may not be impressive, but IIRC I've read that the DFW-HKG route also doesn't have a crazy amount of PDEW, and one could argue that is AA's most premium route.
 
edealinfo
Posts: 2780
Joined: Mon Jan 21, 2019 7:11 pm

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Sun Aug 18, 2019 6:09 pm

srkSJC wrote:
AI may not want to start it but Amritsar-HKG is viable route provided chinese airspace north of Tibet SAR/through Lhasa valley region is allowed. That is the only viable route. Some regular contributors will say that there is flight safety regulation for that but chinese carriers regularly fly through this territory and have no issue. aircraft, crew training, and geo-politics is what makes or break a flight { sometimes}....


You seem to be someone connected with Punjab. If so, your best bet is to ask the Gold Temple religious folk, and the Business Trade Association in Amritsar, Indigo in joint conjunction with Turkish Airlines, to collectively lobby with the Civil Aviation Minister to expand the bilateral with Turkey to only cover a daily narrow-body Istanbul to Amritsar flight. This will connect Punjab to the rest of the world. My suggestion is the BEST STRATEGY for Turkish to get any chance of an expanded bilateral [albeit covering just that 1 flight].

The big problem is that Turkish is asking for the moon, relatively. They want rights to many Indian cities with Bangalore as #1 priority followed by HYD as #2 and then a few other cities including Amritsar, etc. There is 0% chance that India would accept their fat demand. But, if they make a strategic request, so it appears that India actually isn't actually giving much (IST to Amritsar), it could tactfully slip through.

India could pitch the expansion as "a win", if it can change the existing 2X daily flights bilateral to one that is equivalent in SEATS to 2X widebody + 1X narrowbody flight. This way, for Turkish's existing 2X daily widebody+ 1X potential narrowbody in SEATS, India could mount the equivalent of 5X narrowbody SEATS to IST (right now India is limited to Indigo's 2X narrowbody to IST).

So, in terms of India expanding from 2X narrowbody to 5X narrowbody, it is a win, because Turkish's expansion would only be limited to the 1X narrowbody (to Amritsar) over their existing base 2X widebody.

Bottomline: The deal I am proposing would expand India's operations to IST by 3X narrowbody but Turkish's expansion would only be limited to 1X narrowbody, and that too, only to Amritsar (the Civil Aviation minister's hometown). This deal ensures that the minister has "skin in the game". Everybody is a winner under this deal -- Turkish/Turkey, Indigo/India, The Minister, and the Punjabis.
 
CaliguyNYC
Posts: 1298
Joined: Tue Sep 27, 2016 7:27 pm

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Sun Aug 18, 2019 9:39 pm

edealinfo wrote:
srkSJC wrote:
AI may not want to start it but Amritsar-HKG is viable route provided chinese airspace north of Tibet SAR/through Lhasa valley region is allowed. That is the only viable route. Some regular contributors will say that there is flight safety regulation for that but chinese carriers regularly fly through this territory and have no issue. aircraft, crew training, and geo-politics is what makes or break a flight { sometimes}....


You seem to be someone connected with Punjab. If so, your best bet is to ask the Gold Temple religious folk, and the Business Trade Association in Amritsar, Indigo in joint conjunction with Turkish Airlines, to collectively lobby with the Civil Aviation Minister to expand the bilateral with Turkey to only cover a daily narrow-body Istanbul to Amritsar flight. This will connect Punjab to the rest of the world. My suggestion is the BEST STRATEGY for Turkish to get any chance of an expanded bilateral [albeit covering just that 1 flight].

The big problem is that Turkish is asking for the moon, relatively. They want rights to many Indian cities with Bangalore as #1 priority followed by HYD as #2 and then a few other cities including Amritsar, etc. There is 0% chance that India would accept their fat demand. But, if they make a strategic request, so it appears that India actually isn't actually giving much (IST to Amritsar), it could tactfully slip through.

India could pitch the expansion as "a win", if it can change the existing 2X daily flights bilateral to one that is equivalent in SEATS to 2X widebody + 1X narrowbody flight. This way, for Turkish's existing 2X daily widebody+ 1X potential narrowbody in SEATS, India could mount the equivalent of 5X narrowbody SEATS to IST (right now India is limited to Indigo's 2X narrowbody to IST).

So, in terms of India expanding from 2X narrowbody to 5X narrowbody, it is a win, because Turkish's expansion would only be limited to the 1X narrowbody (to Amritsar) over their existing base 2X widebody.

Bottomline: The deal I am proposing would expand India's operations to IST by 3X narrowbody but Turkish's expansion would only be limited to 1X narrowbody, and that too, only to Amritsar (the Civil Aviation minister's hometown). This deal ensures that the minister has "skin in the game". Everybody is a winner under this deal -- Turkish/Turkey, Indigo/India, The Minister, and the Punjabis.


Turkey was literally the only country to support Pakistan over India on Kashmir. I don’t see the turkey bilateral any time soon.
 
edealinfo
Posts: 2780
Joined: Mon Jan 21, 2019 7:11 pm

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Mon Aug 19, 2019 12:05 am

CaliguyNYC wrote:

Turkey was literally the only country to support Pakistan over India on Kashmir. I don’t see the turkey bilateral any time soon.


Ok, didn't know they specifically did that, so you are likely right, they lost even the moon shot chance they could have possibly had.
 
TEMPO
Posts: 77
Joined: Wed May 01, 2019 2:34 am

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Mon Aug 19, 2019 1:25 am

CaliguyNYC wrote:
Turkey was literally the only country to support Pakistan over India on Kashmir. I don’t see the turkey bilateral any time soon.


Trade trumps politics sometimes. India may need to bend a little. From the English language version of Turkish Hurriyet:

>>
Turkey and India need to work together to establish balanced and sustainable trade ties, Ruhsar Pekcan, the Turkish trade minister, said on Dec. 18, 2018.

Turkey and India’s bilateral trade volume reached $8 billion in the first 11 months of 2018, up from $7 billion in all of 2017, she noted on a visit to the capital New Delhi.

“India’s exports to Turkey exceeded Turkey’s exports to India,” she told the Turkey-India Business Forum, organized by Turkey’s Foreign Economic Relations Board.

Last year, Turkey’s exports to India amounted to $758.6 million, while India’s to Turkey totaled $6.2 billion, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK).

This year, around 10-15 percent of bilateral trade was done by Turkey, while India accounted for the rest, said TÜİK.
>>

But on the other hand, maybe politics trumps trade. From the Pakistan Ministry of Trade website:

>>
Turkey and Pakistan enjoy a close historical, cultural and military relations which are now expanding and seeking a better economic relationship, the total trade volume between the two countries is $596.08 million for the year 2017 with a positive trade balance for Pakistan of US$ 58.61 million.
>>

We’ll just have to wait and see how all this impacts aviation ties, but given the disparity in trade figures that the Turkish Minister was quoting, I wouldn’t be surprised if after a respectable interval of time with no inflammatory rhetoric (6 months? 1 year?), Turkey got new bilaterals as part of a comprehensive trade agreement.
 
Blerg
Posts: 5115
Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:42 am

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Mon Aug 19, 2019 5:47 am

TEMPO wrote:
CaliguyNYC wrote:
Turkey was literally the only country to support Pakistan over India on Kashmir. I don’t see the turkey bilateral any time soon.


Trade trumps politics sometimes. India may need to bend a little. From the English language version of Turkish Hurriyet:

>>
Turkey and India need to work together to establish balanced and sustainable trade ties, Ruhsar Pekcan, the Turkish trade minister, said on Dec. 18, 2018.

Turkey and India’s bilateral trade volume reached $8 billion in the first 11 months of 2018, up from $7 billion in all of 2017, she noted on a visit to the capital New Delhi.

“India’s exports to Turkey exceeded Turkey’s exports to India,” she told the Turkey-India Business Forum, organized by Turkey’s Foreign Economic Relations Board.

Last year, Turkey’s exports to India amounted to $758.6 million, while India’s to Turkey totaled $6.2 billion, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK).

This year, around 10-15 percent of bilateral trade was done by Turkey, while India accounted for the rest, said TÜİK.
>>

But on the other hand, maybe politics trumps trade. From the Pakistan Ministry of Trade website:

>>
Turkey and Pakistan enjoy a close historical, cultural and military relations which are now expanding and seeking a better economic relationship, the total trade volume between the two countries is $596.08 million for the year 2017 with a positive trade balance for Pakistan of US$ 58.61 million.
>>

We’ll just have to wait and see how all this impacts aviation ties, but given the disparity in trade figures that the Turkish Minister was quoting, I wouldn’t be surprised if after a respectable interval of time with no inflammatory rhetoric (6 months? 1 year?), Turkey got new bilaterals as part of a comprehensive trade agreement.


With such growing economic ties, it can also mean that more flights are needed for the O&D passengers especially since TK probably sells a great deal of seats to transfer passengers. I guess this suits the Persian Gulf carriers the most. If this trend continues then India stands to lose more than Turkey.
 
edealinfo
Posts: 2780
Joined: Mon Jan 21, 2019 7:11 pm

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Mon Aug 19, 2019 1:11 pm

The Indian Express is reporting that the “enforcement directorate” (I guess other departments don’t enforce anything, ha ha), is now investigating former finance minister P. Chidambaram or a range or aviation related Isuzu’s including “slot fixing”. Presumably, this relates to expansion of the the ME3 bilateral. I am guessing that such a probe, which usually takes months, if not at least a year, will also mean that the Government will be cautious and not increase the bilateral to the ME3. This excludes Turkey.
 
CaliguyNYC
Posts: 1298
Joined: Tue Sep 27, 2016 7:27 pm

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Mon Aug 19, 2019 1:25 pm

Blerg wrote:
TEMPO wrote:
CaliguyNYC wrote:
Turkey was literally the only country to support Pakistan over India on Kashmir. I don’t see the turkey bilateral any time soon.


Trade trumps politics sometimes. India may need to bend a little. From the English language version of Turkish Hurriyet:

>>
Turkey and India need to work together to establish balanced and sustainable trade ties, Ruhsar Pekcan, the Turkish trade minister, said on Dec. 18, 2018.

Turkey and India’s bilateral trade volume reached $8 billion in the first 11 months of 2018, up from $7 billion in all of 2017, she noted on a visit to the capital New Delhi.

“India’s exports to Turkey exceeded Turkey’s exports to India,” she told the Turkey-India Business Forum, organized by Turkey’s Foreign Economic Relations Board.

Last year, Turkey’s exports to India amounted to $758.6 million, while India’s to Turkey totaled $6.2 billion, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK).

This year, around 10-15 percent of bilateral trade was done by Turkey, while India accounted for the rest, said TÜİK.
>>

But on the other hand, maybe politics trumps trade. From the Pakistan Ministry of Trade website:

>>
Turkey and Pakistan enjoy a close historical, cultural and military relations which are now expanding and seeking a better economic relationship, the total trade volume between the two countries is $596.08 million for the year 2017 with a positive trade balance for Pakistan of US$ 58.61 million.
>>

We’ll just have to wait and see how all this impacts aviation ties, but given the disparity in trade figures that the Turkish Minister was quoting, I wouldn’t be surprised if after a respectable interval of time with no inflammatory rhetoric (6 months? 1 year?), Turkey got new bilaterals as part of a comprehensive trade agreement.


With such growing economic ties, it can also mean that more flights are needed for the O&D passengers especially since TK probably sells a great deal of seats to transfer passengers. I guess this suits the Persian Gulf carriers the most. If this trend continues then India stands to lose more than Turkey.


But it won't lose it's dignity. Remember Turkey's support of Pakistan is based on a historical connection of Turkey viewing Pakistanis (and not Indians) as the inheritors of the Turkish people's invasions of India centuries ago (yes centuries ago). Nationalist and Religious crap like that has no place in the modern world. Strangely the same country, Turkey, doesn't support the Kurds but do support the Kashmiris (who have always been an integral part of India and Indian culture - they are not "others" or "outsiders". What ever. Indigo is starting flights that will also serve O&D traffic. That said, there just isn't much O&D between the two countries. The bilateral won't be increased anytime soon. One note - while the Turkish govt is not supportive of India, I did not find that to be the case of the Turkish people when I was there. Being American of Indian decent and traveling with other Americans, people usual want to talk about America (and how much they like it). In Turkey, people wanted to talk about India. Can't really generalize based on one person's experience, but that was mine.
 
TEMPO
Posts: 77
Joined: Wed May 01, 2019 2:34 am

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Mon Aug 19, 2019 2:01 pm

CaliguyNYC wrote:
Blerg wrote:
TEMPO wrote:

Trade trumps politics sometimes. India may need to bend a little.


India stands to lose more than Turkey.


But it won't lose it's dignity.


I’m not sure where dignity ends and pragmatism begins in international relations. For example, I hear that despite everything that happened at the U.N. Security Council a few days ago, President Xi of China is still expected in India this year for “informal” talks. Balanced trade with the promise of increased imports during a recessionary period may well be the carrot with which India entices Turkey to back off.
 
User avatar
unrave
Posts: 2682
Joined: Tue Jan 06, 2015 6:37 am

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Mon Aug 19, 2019 3:17 pm

TEMPO wrote:
I’m not sure where dignity ends and pragmatism begins in international relations. For example, I hear that despite everything that happened at the U.N. Security Council a few days ago, President Xi of China is still expected in India this year for “informal” talks. Balanced trade with the promise of increased imports during a recessionary period may well be the carrot with which India entices Turkey to back off.


Brief history lesson: In the not so distant past, most Islamic countries would ALWAYS take the side of Pakistan over India in disputes between the two (the unity of the ummah and all that jazz). Overtime though, with opening of Indian economy, ramping up of bilateral trade and diplomacy, most of the GCC countries now in fact support India. The UAE in particular has never been more pro India than it is today. But Turkey is not there yet. Perhaps under a more moderate ruler, Turkey could also shift to a more pro India stance and there could be dozens of daily flights between the two countries. But that time is not now.
 
TEMPO
Posts: 77
Joined: Wed May 01, 2019 2:34 am

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Mon Aug 19, 2019 3:52 pm

unrave wrote:
TEMPO wrote:
Balanced trade with the promise of increased imports during a recessionary period may well be the carrot with which India entices Turkey to back off.

But that time is not now.


I won’t belabour the point since international relations can be endlessly discussed. I’ll just reiterate my opinion that “now” will be “the past” within 6 to 12 months and circle back on this in August of 2020.
 
MIAFLLPBIFlyer
Posts: 580
Joined: Mon Jul 03, 2017 8:25 pm

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Mon Aug 19, 2019 3:58 pm

unrave wrote:
TEMPO wrote:
I’m not sure where dignity ends and pragmatism begins in international relations. For example, I hear that despite everything that happened at the U.N. Security Council a few days ago, President Xi of China is still expected in India this year for “informal” talks. Balanced trade with the promise of increased imports during a recessionary period may well be the carrot with which India entices Turkey to back off.


Brief history lesson: In the not so distant past, most Islamic countries would ALWAYS take the side of Pakistan over India in disputes between the two (the unity of the ummah and all that jazz). Overtime though, with opening of Indian economy, ramping up of bilateral trade and diplomacy, most of the GCC countries now in fact support India. The UAE in particular has never been more pro India than it is today. But Turkey is not there yet. Perhaps under a more moderate ruler, Turkey could also shift to a more pro India stance and there could be dozens of daily flights between the two countries. But that time is not now.


Much of this was due to the US' pro-Pakistani stand and the fact that then most of those Muslim countries had good relationships with the US. Started with the 71' war. But these days US pressure isn't there and other considerations are prevalent for the Muslim countries.

Whatever the politics, I think India is in no rush to give Turkish more access. The aviation sector in India tends to still be fairly protectionist as we all know. Some obvious exceptions but it takes a lot of effort to open the Indian market to anything resembling Open Skies in most cases. Most important bilaterals remain restrictive.
 
klakzky123
Posts: 691
Joined: Mon Jul 04, 2016 4:05 am

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Mon Aug 19, 2019 4:07 pm

TEMPO wrote:
CaliguyNYC wrote:
Blerg wrote:

India stands to lose more than Turkey.


But it won't lose it's dignity.


I’m not sure where dignity ends and pragmatism begins in international relations. For example, I hear that despite everything that happened at the U.N. Security Council a few days ago, President Xi of China is still expected in India this year for “informal” talks. Balanced trade with the promise of increased imports during a recessionary period may well be the carrot with which India entices Turkey to back off.


if you want an example, Turkey quickly backed off on the Uighur issue with China. At one point, Erdogan called the Chinese policy towards the Uighurs as genocide and now Erdogan is saying that China is treating them fairly. Erdogan and the AKP aren't the most principled bunch at this point.
 
unnayan
Posts: 225
Joined: Sat Feb 02, 2013 10:57 pm

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Mon Aug 19, 2019 6:18 pm

Alliance air DEL -JAI flight makes emergency landing..

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.indiat ... 2019-08-19
 
unnayan
Posts: 225
Joined: Sat Feb 02, 2013 10:57 pm

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Mon Aug 19, 2019 6:21 pm

DGCA acts tough with PW for NEO engines snag...

https://m.timesofindia.com/business/ind ... 742166.cms
 
adisid
Posts: 1
Joined: Mon Aug 19, 2019 10:25 pm

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - August 2019

Tue Aug 20, 2019 1:21 am

Animation of BLR T2 via Twitter http://j.mp/2KZsk39
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