Hi together,

hadn't seen a thread about that as such. I'd like to collect and discuss all cancellations after or due to the grounding. Especially, as China Southern apparently announced their cancellation today.

China Southern with 56 orders and probably 30 additional which were still pending government authorization, as it seems.
https://simpleflying.com/china-southern ... cancelled/



Previously we heard of

-Flyadeal with up to 50 737MAX - https://www.reuters.com/article/us-saud ... SKCN1U20BN
-AZALwith 10 MAX - https://airlinerwatch.com/azal-drops-73 ... eliveries/
-Garuda with 49 MAX https://edition.cnn.com/2019/03/22/busi ... index.html

Obviously others have threatened to cancel, such as

- Lion Air https://airlinerwatch.com/lion-air-plan ... to-airbus/


Who is next ?

Wow, with the world's third largest airline doing that I am sure that others will follow shortly.

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how many more are on order in China by various Chinese airlines? Surely these are all prime to be cancelled?

MOL isn't best pleased at Ryanair with his recent comments aimed at Boeing and today's announcement of redundancies and base closures/reductions, could he top up or double his rumoured Airbus order for Laudamotion and introduce Airbus into Ryanair? a321 must be a juicy thought for him right now!

oschkosch wrote:

Wow, with the world's third largest airline doing that I am sure that others will follow shortly.

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By fleet size, the 3rd largest airline is United Airlines; China Southern is 5th.
Can't find China Southern in 3rd place in any of the metrics (source: Wikipedia)

Boeing's website has a page where you can pull a detailed breakdown of total orders & deliveries. Currently hosted at https://www.boeing.com/commercial/ down at the bottom of the page.

Their practice used to be not to show actual cancellations but rather take a revisionist history approach and erase any trace of the order. However by pulling the breakdown at the end of each month, you could compare one month to the next to get the net change, including cancellations by operator.

However, that report hasn't been loading properly for me for the last little while - I wonder if this is deliberate. Anyone else having the same issue?

ShamrockBoi330 wrote:

how many more are on order in China by various Chinese airlines? Surely these are all prime to be cancelled?

There is: (should be roughly accurate)

(delivered)

9 Air - (1) + 2
Air China - (16) +29
CALC China (Lessor) 50
China Eastern (3)+36
(China Southern) (24) +56 cancelled
Donghai Airlines 25
Goshawk (Lessor/HKG) 20
Hainan (11) +39
ICBC Leasing (Lessor) 5
Shadong Airlines (7) +27
Shenzhen Airlines (5) +25
Xiamen Air (10) +20

Your link doesn’t work.

Polot wrote:

Your link doesn’t work.

It did work a few minutes ago, they seem tp have deleted it. Here’s another one I found on google

https://www.ttgmedia.com/news/news/chin ... rder-18876

WayexTDI wrote:

oschkosch wrote:

Wow, with the world's third largest airline doing that I am sure that others will follow shortly.

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By fleet size, the 3rd largest airline is United Airlines; China Southern is 5th.
Can't find China Southern in 3rd place in any of the metrics (source: Wikipedia)

sorry, the article stated it, I wasn't sure.


"Saxby added the airline is currently operating more than 840 aircraft, making it the third largest airline in the world."

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The clock is ticking... unless Boeing makes some extraordinary move in the next weeks (which isn't likely since it's pretty much out of their hands at this point), I can see numerous other airlines around the world slowly and quietly drifting away from their MAX orders once we enter the last quarter of 2019: slowed down or even halted production, no cancellation fees, much harder for Boeing to play tough during negotiations, etc.

Icelandair could very well be next.

I would completely remove Garuda. They had completely deferred their entire order before there was a crash, due to financial difficulties. The grounding just gave them a contract out they desperately needed.

If you couldn't afford the planes beforehand the groundings are of little significance.

Considering Icelandair fired all MAX pilots I'm not sure how theyre planning to fly the MAX, so I'd bet on them. Otherwise I'd say most likely to cancel are those that are either in no short-term need for capacity or have neos/other planes that can substitute the MAX on order

China Southern cancelling 737 MAX is apparently fake news. The source you linked have retracted their report it seems.

c933103 wrote:

China Southern cancelling 737 MAX is apparently fake news. The source you linked have retracted their report it seems.

There is a second link just below the original post.

Regards


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

c933103 wrote:

China Southern cancelling 737 MAX is apparently fake news. The source you linked have retracted their report it seems.

Several outlets are reporting the cancel.

For now there have only been 9 actual cancellations for the 737 MAX, this is the number of actual reductions on the order book up to June next to the large Jet Airways cancellations which was also booked during the grounding. 6 of those cancellations are undisclosed, 3 were from ALC.

So for now it's hard to say anything about actual cancellations. We've seen a couple of MOU/LOI that were not firmed up, a couple of leases were cancelled (see the ALC reduction for example). Until we will see actual reductions of the order book it's all speculation. I doubt that the UK and Ireland key account manager from China Southern has any the knowledge or authority to say anything about the China Southern order book at Boeing. As we have seen before several cancellation announcements turned out to just be deferrals or even conversions to the 737-10 and 787 (Garuda, not yet formalized). It doesn't matter if several outlets report this, we live in a copy past media environment, if 1 outlet makes a mistake in an article it will still be around on the internet for years to come in other articles that have not done actual journalistic reporting on the subject.

The longer it will take the bigger the impact will be on the MAX order book, but we will only know the full extend when the customers actually start to cancel their orders, which then will show up on the order book.

Obviously the Jet Airways order is toast, I'm waiting to see if Lion Air & Ethiopian cancel
any or all of their orders.. I'm frankly shocked they haven't already done so.

I think the biggest changes you'll see to the Max order book are deferrals and lots of them,

What’s the fastest timeframe Airbus could build up a new A320 line/ plant from scratch and start spitting up frames? Two years? Three? At this point it must be starting to seem an attractive proposition.

Sooner787 wrote:

I'm waiting to see if Lion Air & Ethiopian cancel any or all of their orders.. I'm frankly shocked they haven't already done so.

Why should they do this? They have already several airframes in their fleet. Canceling the rest would leave them with a rather small sub-fleet of 737-8‘s.

The same applies to CZ. They have already about 20, correct? Strange decision, if true, IMO.

tropical wrote:

What’s the fastest timeframe Airbus could build up a new A320 line/ plant from scratch and start spitting up frames? Two years? Three? At this point it must be starting to seem an attractive proposition.

Well, there was a lot of talk recently about ramping up production across all facilities I thought - just due to increasing orders and the popularity of the NEO, LR, XLR, etc.

The real question would be engines - although presumably CFM would be able to slow production of the LEAP-1B and focus more on the -1A?

N14AZ wrote:

Sooner787 wrote:

I'm waiting to see if Lion Air & Ethiopian cancel any or all of their orders.. I'm frankly shocked they haven't already done so.

Why should they do this? They have already several airframes in their fleet. Canceling the rest would leave them with a rather small sub-fleet of 737-8‘s.

The same applies to CZ. They have already about 20, correct? Strange decision, if true, IMO.

Why should they?.......because hundreds of people died on their aircraft.

tropical wrote:

What’s the fastest timeframe Airbus could build up a new A320 line/ plant from scratch and start spitting up frames? Two years? Three? At this point it must be starting to seem an attractive proposition.

I assume their new A220 FAL at BFM will be able to produce A320 frames as well.

If that is true, 2020.

OA940 wrote:

Considering Icelandair fired all MAX pilots I'm not sure how theyre planning to fly the MAX, so I'd bet on them. Otherwise I'd say most likely to cancel are those that are either in no short-term need for capacity or have neos/other planes that can substitute the MAX on order

Fired all max pilots..... does Iceland air do something different from every other airline in the world and not retrain a pilot based on seniority ?
Who in their right mind would work for such an airline. Imagine getting hired for an airline and some of the class gets assigned a plane the airline will get rid of on the next year. It would be the most inefficient way to run pilot labor.

2 things. Icelandair either is off their rocker and we have the one and only airline who engages in such a practice. Or a common sence approach dictates the airline furloughed the excessive pilots based on seniority and retrained those to different equipment. (Furlough is a temporary thing until a cockpit position opens up and filled in seniority order).

Not an insult but you seem not to have ever worked for an airline as a pilot and have no clue how the cockpit hiring is done. No big deal, just obvious.

Cheers

RB211trent wrote:

N14AZ wrote:

Sooner787 wrote:

I'm waiting to see if Lion Air & Ethiopian cancel any or all of their orders.. I'm frankly shocked they haven't already done so.

Why should they do this? They have already several airframes in their fleet. Canceling the rest would leave them with a rather small sub-fleet of 737-8‘s.

The same applies to CZ. They have already about 20, correct? Strange decision, if true, IMO.

Why should they?.......because hundreds of people died on their aircraft.

You are referring to ET now. So you think that ET might cancel the remaining airframes, possibility sell the Max they already have because ET‘s passengers might be reluctant to purchase flights with a max?

I am very suspicious at this point in time about this cancelation. Only two links and one isn`t working referencing a source durign a meeting in Europe. The deal might be used as one of many chips during the trade war too.

So I want more prove...

N14AZ wrote:

RB211trent wrote:

N14AZ wrote:

Why should they do this? They have already several airframes in their fleet. Canceling the rest would leave them with a rather small sub-fleet of 737-8‘s.

The same applies to CZ. They have already about 20, correct? Strange decision, if true, IMO.

Why should they?.......because hundreds of people died on their aircraft.

You are referring to ET now. So you think that ET might cancel the remaining airframes, possibility sell the Max they already have because ET‘s passengers might be reluctant to purchase flights with a max?

Yes, and Lionair, I’m sure it’s going to be along time before the MAX fades in the travelling public’s consciousness. In time however it will.

reltney wrote:

OA940 wrote:

Considering Icelandair fired all MAX pilots I'm not sure how theyre planning to fly the MAX, so I'd bet on them. Otherwise I'd say most likely to cancel are those that are either in no short-term need for capacity or have neos/other planes that can substitute the MAX on order

Fired all max pilots..... does Iceland air do something different from every other airline in the world and not retrain a pilot based on seniority ?
Who in their right mind would work for such an airline. Imagine getting hired for an airline and some of the class gets assigned a plane the airline will get rid of on the next year. It would be the most inefficient way to run pilot labor.

2 things. Icelandair either is off their rocker and we have the one and only airline who engages in such a practice. Or a common sence approach dictates the airline furloughed the excessive pilots based on seniority and retrained those to different equipment. (Furlough is a temporary thing until a cockpit position opens up and filled in seniority order).

Not an insult but you seem not to have ever worked for an airline as a pilot and have no clue how the cockpit hiring is done. No big deal, just obvious.

Cheers

FI's dismissal and hiring freeze of MAX pilots has been widely reported, a quick google search would have clarified this, no big deal, just obvious thing to do!

In their just released quarterly report, GE identify a potential business threat - their association with the MAX financially and reputation.

smartplane wrote:

In their just released quarterly report, GE identify a potential business threat - their association with the MAX financially and reputation.

I guess that grounding is not only a threat for the big players, but much more so for many suppliers down the "food" chain. I wonder if Boeing would have problems restarting production, should some of them go bust during the ongoing grounding. And at the moment we can only be certain, it will last for many more months.

From an aviation enthusiast point of view it would be good to see the type disappear from the Icelandair fleet. The livery was different than that on its 757's and 767's and made the aircraft/airline look really cheap.

JayinKitsap wrote:

Boeing is DOOMED

This may be a little dramatic. I'm not downplaying Boeing's problems, but airlines place orders years in advance. For many airlines, if they cancel their Boeing 737MAX orders, where are they going to go for a replacement aircraft? Airbus' order books for the 320/321 probably have little if any room in the near future.

In addition, reading some B6 news, B6 has had to delay some routes because of delays in A320neo deliveries.

Yes, Boeing has big problems. However, they will move past them in time.

tropical wrote:

What’s the fastest timeframe Airbus could build up a new A320 line/ plant from scratch and start spitting up frames? Two years? Three? At this point it must be starting to seem an attractive proposition.

You need more than a line/plant.
You need an entire supply chain.

So if true, what then happens to the likes of these? Made, but likely unpaid.

N14AZ wrote:

Sooner787 wrote:

I'm waiting to see if Lion Air & Ethiopian cancel any or all of their orders.. I'm frankly shocked they haven't already done so.

Why should they do this? They have already several airframes in their fleet. Canceling the rest would leave them with a rather small sub-fleet of 737-8‘s.

The same applies to CZ. They have already about 20, correct? Strange decision, if true, IMO.

Because they are (being perceived as) killer planes!

RB211trent wrote:

N14AZ wrote:

RB211trent wrote:

Why should they?.......because hundreds of people died on their aircraft.

You are referring to ET now. So you think that ET might cancel the remaining airframes, possibility sell the Max they already have because ET‘s passengers might be reluctant to purchase flights with a max?

Yes, and Lionair, I’m sure it’s going to be along time before the MAX fades in the travelling public’s consciousness. In time however it will.

In the 24 hour news cycle age the public has an attention span of less than 24.
Probably closer to 8.

MartijnNL wrote:

From an aviation enthusiast point of view it would be good to see the type disappear from the Icelandair fleet. The livery was different than that on its 757's and 767's and made the aircraft/airline look really cheap.

Livery is superficial.
It could be easily changed, if Icelandair wanted to.
Apparently they like it. They chose it.

If China airlines do cancel their 737 Max orders - it would be more likely because of the trade issues that China and US is facing and unless this is resolved earlier, then it is a real possiblity that these 737 Maxes will be cancelled.

ArjenterAvest wrote:

c933103 wrote:

China Southern cancelling 737 MAX is apparently fake news. The source you linked have retracted their report it seems.

There is a second link just below the original post.

Regards


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Lootess wrote:

c933103 wrote:

China Southern cancelling 737 MAX is apparently fake news. The source you linked have retracted their report it seems.

Several outlets are reporting the cancel.

https://twitter.com/lesliejosephs/statu ... 7420176384

"Saxby is saying this is not accurate and that it's just that the deliveries are just (still) suspended"

foxtrotbravo21 wrote:

If China airlines do cancel their 737 Max orders - it would be more likely because of the trade issues that China and US is facing and unless this is resolved earlier, then it is a real possiblity that these 737 Maxes will be cancelled.

Have China Airlines ordered the 737 Max??

itisi wrote:

foxtrotbravo21 wrote:

If China airlines do cancel their 737 Max orders - it would be more likely because of the trade issues that China and US is facing and unless this is resolved earlier, then it is a real possiblity that these 737 Maxes will be cancelled.

Have China Airlines ordered the 737 Max??

Pretty sure he’s saying Chinese airlines, not CI based in Taiwan.

Jetty wrote:

N14AZ wrote:

Sooner787 wrote:

I'm waiting to see if Lion Air & Ethiopian cancel any or all of their orders.. I'm frankly shocked they haven't already done so.

Why should they do this? They have already several airframes in their fleet. Canceling the rest would leave them with a rather small sub-fleet of 737-8‘s.

The same applies to CZ. They have already about 20, correct? Strange decision, if true, IMO.

Because they are (being perceived as) killer planes!

United did not fleet out the DC 10 after the crash.
THY did not fleet out the DC 10 after the Paris crash.

You might say „these were different times“, when you had a plane crash almost every month. But I still would find it strange if they would fleet out an aircraft because of the (present) public perception. Sorry for being so sober („less drama“ as we have been asked for in another thread ...). We shall see what happens...

Garuda didn’t cancel their order, instead, they kept their order and added Boeing 787s.

https://simpleflying.com/garuda-will-ta ... g-737-max/

Those "news" are only speculations and misunderstandings about contract negociations.

We know almost nothing about those contracts, how they are negociated or even the ammount of money involved.

Some says "Cancelled", some says "Suspended", some words are lost in translation...

better change the topic head.

Airlines0613 wrote:

Garuda didn’t cancel their order, instead, they kept their order and added Boeing 787s.

https://simpleflying.com/garuda-will-ta ... g-737-max/

Not so fast. The Garuda order has already been removed from the books. No 787 or 737MAX-10 order has been placed yet. So far it is all hot air.

reltney wrote:

OA940 wrote:

Considering Icelandair fired all MAX pilots I'm not sure how theyre planning to fly the MAX, so I'd bet on them. Otherwise I'd say most likely to cancel are those that are either in no short-term need for capacity or have neos/other planes that can substitute the MAX on order

Fired all max pilots..... does Iceland air do something different from every other airline in the world and not retrain a pilot based on seniority ?
Who in their right mind would work for such an airline. Imagine getting hired for an airline and some of the class gets assigned a plane the airline will get rid of on the next year. It would be the most inefficient way to run pilot labor.

2 things. Icelandair either is off their rocker and we have the one and only airline who engages in such a practice. Or a common sence approach dictates the airline furloughed the excessive pilots based on seniority and retrained those to different equipment. (Furlough is a temporary thing until a cockpit position opens up and filled in seniority order).

Not an insult but you seem not to have ever worked for an airline as a pilot and have no clue how the cockpit hiring is done. No big deal, just obvious.

Cheers

"Fired all MAX pilots" is not at all how things went. They suspended around 30-40 new hires 3 months after the grounding went into effect, when it became clear the MAX wouldn't be available for the high season this summer. Some of those new hires hadn't even started training yet. Of course they didn't suspend senior pilots that had moved from the 757, those just retrained on the 757/767 fleet. When (and if... ) the MAX grounding is over, those pilots will retrain on the MAX and the new hires that were let go will be re-hired again as at least 9 MAXs will then suddenly join the fleet.

wrongwayup wrote:

However, that report hasn't been loading properly for me for the last little while - I wonder if this is deliberate. Anyone else having the same issue?

I’ve been having issues loading it on my phone for a while now (before the MAX grounding). Works fine on desktop though.

VSMUT wrote:

Airlines0613 wrote:

Garuda didn’t cancel their order, instead, they kept their order and added Boeing 787s.

https://simpleflying.com/garuda-will-ta ... g-737-max/

Not so fast. The Garuda order has already been removed from the books. No 787 or 737MAX-10 order has been placed yet. So far it is all hot air.

Actually it has not. The Garuda order is still on the books as of the end of June.

I know its very unlikely but if a major player like WN cancelled their orders. It would be the final nail in the coffin for the Max program. I love Boeing aircraft and I've flown on them for years, but this has permanently stained Boeing's record in my book.

Another report that the China Southern story was a mis-quote a.k.a. 'fake news':

https://paxex.aero/2019/07/china-southe ... er-cancel/

Hi all,

The thread will be locked as there is no official announcement by China Southern Airlines or related lessor to substantiate the news/rumours/updates.

Regards,
J