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jfern022
Posts: 165
Joined: Sun Aug 21, 2016 9:24 pm

Re: DL closing NRT. Suspends NRT-SIN, Announces ICN-MNL

Tue Sep 10, 2019 6:29 pm

DL747400 wrote:
klm617 wrote:
There is a sizeable Philippine community in Southeast Michigan and Northwest always maintained one stop flights from Detroit.


:roll: Because continuing to do things the way they've always been done historically is such a great idea. :roll: And because everything NW did was always profitable.


That person has a perverse way of looking at things. They think DTW is the center of the universe and isn’t happy DL didn’t do everything the way failing NW did. They were on the verge of Ch 7 for a reason.

Northwest is more aligned with this clip

https://youtu.be/M-RwjNKP9PA
 
NWADTWE16
Posts: 658
Joined: Fri Jun 29, 2012 5:12 am

Re: DL closing NRT. Suspends NRT-SIN, Announces ICN-MNL

Tue Sep 10, 2019 9:41 pm

he is right the DTW-NRT-MNL & DTW-NGO-MNL were constantly filled with DTWMNL passengers. You can blow smoke all you want but that's a fact. Did you work there during those days, I did.
I haven't been everywhere, but it's on my list!
 
beerbus
Posts: 84
Joined: Tue Oct 18, 2016 2:41 pm

Re: DL closing NRT. Suspends NRT-SIN, Announces ICN-MNL

Tue Sep 10, 2019 10:07 pm

Puissance wrote:
The economy Detroit fares to Manila were generally at least $1300 on Delta, and the published competitors with two changes of plane were only a couple of hundred dollars cheaper, so, if you weren't willing to go to Chicago or Toronto, they did have a fair number of customers from Detroit though NRT, and the yields were decent compared to Chicago at least.


CONUS to MNL mostly consists of Filipino ethnic Balikbayan traffic. (Filipino expats)

These passengers don't buy tickets on delta.com, or sites like Expedia.

They don't pay the published tariff.

Their flights are normally purchased through Balikbayan bucket shops, AKA "Consolidators" The price is unpublished, via a higher than normal commission paid to the Consolidator on the back end.

Most of the commission is used by the Consolidator to reduce the ticket price paid by the Balikbayan traveler.

The unpublished airfare is lower than the published fare, and subject to capacity controls, and strict reissue/refund policies.

NW started service to MNL in 1947, and DL has assumed an extensive relationship that goes back many years in this market.
 
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DL747400
Posts: 685
Joined: Mon Sep 01, 2008 4:04 pm

Re: DL closing NRT. Suspends NRT-SIN, Announces ICN-MNL

Wed Sep 11, 2019 1:31 am

NWADTWE16 wrote:
he is right the DTW-NRT-MNL & DTW-NGO-MNL were constantly filled with DTWMNL passengers.


You are correct. The MNL flights were constantly full, but the Economy cabin was filled largely with passengers traveling on heavily-discounted, low-yield consolidator tickets. NW chased market share in those days.
From First to Worst: The history of Airliners.net.

All posts reflect my opinions, not those of my employer or any other company.
 
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SCFlyer
Posts: 269
Joined: Tue Oct 23, 2018 11:14 pm

Re: DL closing NRT. Suspends NRT-SIN, Announces ICN-MNL

Wed Sep 11, 2019 5:21 am

As said many times previously, a full plane does not equal profit in the airline industry. While a "full plane" may look good, it can still lose money per flight if the yields are very low (aka price sensitive VFR (Visiting Family Relatives)) passengers travelling mostly on discounted tickets.

The assumed consensus is that MNL is mostly a low yielding, VFR market full of price sensitive travellers with very little business/high yield demand to subsidise the economy passengers.
 
filipinoavgeek
Posts: 245
Joined: Mon Mar 04, 2019 1:18 am

Re: DL closing NRT. Suspends NRT-SIN, Announces ICN-MNL

Wed Sep 11, 2019 8:45 am

SCFlyer wrote:
The assumed consensus is that MNL is mostly a low yielding, VFR market full of price sensitive travellers with very little business/high yield demand to subsidise the economy passengers.


Probably true for MNL-North America but less so for MNL-Asia.
 
LurveBus
Posts: 319
Joined: Wed Mar 21, 2007 8:21 pm

Re: DL closing NRT. Suspends NRT-SIN, Announces ICN-MNL

Wed Sep 11, 2019 10:08 am

SCFlyer wrote:
As said many times previously, a full plane does not equal profit in the airline industry. While a "full plane" may look good, it can still lose money per flight if the yields are very low (aka price sensitive VFR (Visiting Family Relatives)) passengers travelling mostly on discounted tickets.

The assumed consensus is that MNL is mostly a low yielding, VFR market full of price sensitive travellers with very little business/high yield demand to subsidise the economy passengers.


And yet MNL survives in the DL network over SIN. There must be some sort of yield there for it to be the lone survivor of the dismantling of the NRT hub. With all the cutting, why keep MNL? It’s not helping out KE at all since the approval granted to DL by Philippine authorities entailed that DL cannot operate flights above the existing limit, and that they have to share seats with KE.

PR for the longest time was trying to court DL for an agreement for the Philippine market with the hopes that DL will drop MNL and just connect with PR flights at HND or LAX. That hasn’t happened.
 
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SCFlyer
Posts: 269
Joined: Tue Oct 23, 2018 11:14 pm

Re: DL closing NRT. Suspends NRT-SIN, Announces ICN-MNL

Wed Sep 11, 2019 11:49 am

LurveBus wrote:
SCFlyer wrote:
As said many times previously, a full plane does not equal profit in the airline industry. While a "full plane" may look good, it can still lose money per flight if the yields are very low (aka price sensitive VFR (Visiting Family Relatives)) passengers travelling mostly on discounted tickets.

The assumed consensus is that MNL is mostly a low yielding, VFR market full of price sensitive travellers with very little business/high yield demand to subsidise the economy passengers.


And yet MNL survives in the DL network over SIN. There must be some sort of yield there for it to be the lone survivor of the dismantling of the NRT hub. With all the cutting, why keep MNL? It’s not helping out KE at all since the approval granted to DL by Philippine authorities entailed that DL cannot operate flights above the existing limit, and that they have to share seats with KE.

PR for the longest time was trying to court DL for an agreement for the Philippine market with the hopes that DL will drop MNL and just connect with PR flights at HND or LAX. That hasn’t happened.


It is believed/assumed/supposedly that the bilateral between Korea and the Philippines are full on the Korean end.
Therefore as part of the JV, it led to the decision to have DL flying a ICN-MNL frequency to get around the full bilateral restrictions on behalf of KE.
The South Korea/Philippines bilateral would have little to do with DL ending the SIN flights.

Should South Korea and Philippines be able to renegotiate their bilateral agreements to allow more capacity, KE would likely replace the DL frequency, therefore would likely lead to the end of the DL flights into MNL.
 
LurveBus
Posts: 319
Joined: Wed Mar 21, 2007 8:21 pm

Re: DL closing NRT. Suspends NRT-SIN, Announces ICN-MNL

Wed Sep 11, 2019 1:10 pm

SCFlyer wrote:
LurveBus wrote:
SCFlyer wrote:
As said many times previously, a full plane does not equal profit in the airline industry. While a "full plane" may look good, it can still lose money per flight if the yields are very low (aka price sensitive VFR (Visiting Family Relatives)) passengers travelling mostly on discounted tickets.

The assumed consensus is that MNL is mostly a low yielding, VFR market full of price sensitive travellers with very little business/high yield demand to subsidise the economy passengers.


And yet MNL survives in the DL network over SIN. There must be some sort of yield there for it to be the lone survivor of the dismantling of the NRT hub. With all the cutting, why keep MNL? It’s not helping out KE at all since the approval granted to DL by Philippine authorities entailed that DL cannot operate flights above the existing limit, and that they have to share seats with KE.

PR for the longest time was trying to court DL for an agreement for the Philippine market with the hopes that DL will drop MNL and just connect with PR flights at HND or LAX. That hasn’t happened.


It is believed/assumed/supposedly that the bilateral between Korea and the Philippines are full on the Korean end.
Therefore as part of the JV, it led to the decision to have DL flying a ICN-MNL frequency to get around the full bilateral restrictions on behalf of KE.
The South Korea/Philippines bilateral would have little to do with DL ending the SIN flights.

Should South Korea and Philippines be able to renegotiate their bilateral agreements to allow more capacity, KE would likely replace the DL frequency, therefore would likely lead to the end of the DL flights into MNL.


As I mentioned earlier on the thread, an industry insider reported that the flights were approved by Philippine Authorities using Korean, not American entitlements. Philippine authorities would not allow DL to skirt the existing limits imposed by the ROK-PH bilateral. I’d post a link, but are we allowed to link to other forums?

In any case, this would result in KE being forced to downgauge one of their flights. ICN-MNL on DL metal is coming at the expense of KE’s allocated seats. The cap to Manila under the Korean bilateral is based on seats, not frequencies.

Incidentally, KE just announced that they’re adding flights to CRK, which is another airport serving Metropolitan Manila.
 
TigerFlyer
Posts: 192
Joined: Tue Apr 25, 2017 7:51 pm

Re: DL closing NRT. Suspends NRT-SIN, Announces ICN-MNL

Wed Sep 11, 2019 2:21 pm

jfern022 wrote:
DL747400 wrote:
klm617 wrote:
There is a sizeable Philippine community in Southeast Michigan and Northwest always maintained one stop flights from Detroit.


:roll: Because continuing to do things the way they've always been done historically is such a great idea. :roll: And because everything NW did was always profitable.


That person has a perverse way of looking at things. They think DTW is the center of the universe and isn’t happy DL didn’t do everything the way failing NW did. They were on the verge of Ch 7 for a reason.

Northwest is more aligned with this clip

https://youtu.be/M-RwjNKP9PA


What are you talking about? NWA was a scrappy and shrewd little carrier that punched way above its weight. They were one of the most consistently profitable and well run U.S. carriers, but like everyone else suffered bumps and bruises during the economic cycles with too much capacity, too many carriers. Both DL and NW entered Ch11 in 2005; not Ch7. There's a lot of NW DNA in Delta. Starting with Richard Anderson on down. NW and DL led the way in industry consolidation. That idea didn't just come from the DL side. NW was already in to process of revamping its TPAC network before the merger and was the U.S. launch customer for the 787. We knew the 747 was too large, but at the time the -400 was the only aircraft that could made Asia beyond Japan nonstop. Arguably the most successful airline merger ever. Integration was fully accomplished within one year. AA and UA took years and things are still not as smooth as one would like. One carrier now, but both DL and NW saw value in each other and the power of the combined network.
 
ITSTours
Posts: 409
Joined: Wed Nov 29, 2017 10:51 pm

Re: DL closing NRT. Suspends NRT-SIN, Announces ICN-MNL

Wed Sep 11, 2019 7:17 pm

LurveBus wrote:
SCFlyer wrote:
LurveBus wrote:

And yet MNL survives in the DL network over SIN. There must be some sort of yield there for it to be the lone survivor of the dismantling of the NRT hub. With all the cutting, why keep MNL? It’s not helping out KE at all since the approval granted to DL by Philippine authorities entailed that DL cannot operate flights above the existing limit, and that they have to share seats with KE.

PR for the longest time was trying to court DL for an agreement for the Philippine market with the hopes that DL will drop MNL and just connect with PR flights at HND or LAX. That hasn’t happened.


It is believed/assumed/supposedly that the bilateral between Korea and the Philippines are full on the Korean end.
Therefore as part of the JV, it led to the decision to have DL flying a ICN-MNL frequency to get around the full bilateral restrictions on behalf of KE.
The South Korea/Philippines bilateral would have little to do with DL ending the SIN flights.

Should South Korea and Philippines be able to renegotiate their bilateral agreements to allow more capacity, KE would likely replace the DL frequency, therefore would likely lead to the end of the DL flights into MNL.


As I mentioned earlier on the thread, an industry insider reported that the flights were approved by Philippine Authorities using Korean, not American entitlements. Philippine authorities would not allow DL to skirt the existing limits imposed by the ROK-PH bilateral. I’d post a link, but are we allowed to link to other forums?

In any case, this would result in KE being forced to downgauge one of their flights. ICN-MNL on DL metal is coming at the expense of KE’s allocated seats. The cap to Manila under the Korean bilateral is based on seats, not frequencies.

Incidentally, KE just announced that they’re adding flights to CRK, which is another airport serving Metropolitan Manila.


The link will be appreciated. Did KE already downguage?
 
carlokiii
Posts: 137
Joined: Sun Oct 04, 2015 11:03 am

Re: DL closing NRT. Suspends NRT-SIN, Announces ICN-MNL

Thu Sep 12, 2019 2:39 am

ITSTours wrote:
LurveBus wrote:
SCFlyer wrote:

It is believed/assumed/supposedly that the bilateral between Korea and the Philippines are full on the Korean end.
Therefore as part of the JV, it led to the decision to have DL flying a ICN-MNL frequency to get around the full bilateral restrictions on behalf of KE.
The South Korea/Philippines bilateral would have little to do with DL ending the SIN flights.

Should South Korea and Philippines be able to renegotiate their bilateral agreements to allow more capacity, KE would likely replace the DL frequency, therefore would likely lead to the end of the DL flights into MNL.


As I mentioned earlier on the thread, an industry insider reported that the flights were approved by Philippine Authorities using Korean, not American entitlements. Philippine authorities would not allow DL to skirt the existing limits imposed by the ROK-PH bilateral. I’d post a link, but are we allowed to link to other forums?

In any case, this would result in KE being forced to downgauge one of their flights. ICN-MNL on DL metal is coming at the expense of KE’s allocated seats. The cap to Manila under the Korean bilateral is based on seats, not frequencies.

Incidentally, KE just announced that they’re adding flights to CRK, which is another airport serving Metropolitan Manila.


The link will be appreciated. Did KE already downguage?

Not related to the link alleging KE down-gauging but just for information:

ICN-MNL-ICN
KE Summer 2019 schedule:
14x 773/77W (Weekly)

KE Winter 2019-2020 schedule:
14x 773/77W + 4x A333 (weekly)

KE Summer 2020 schedule loaded (so far):
14x 773/77W (weekly)

DL's ICN-MNL-ICN conveniently commences at Summer 2020 too but when compared to Summer 2019, there's no indication KE is down-gauging ICN-MNL-ICN (at least as of this writing). Of course schedules can change closer to March 2020.
 
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idp5601
Posts: 196
Joined: Sat Nov 04, 2017 8:09 am

Re: DL closing NRT. Suspends NRT-SIN, Announces ICN-MNL

Thu Sep 12, 2019 8:20 am

ITSTours wrote:
LurveBus wrote:
SCFlyer wrote:

It is believed/assumed/supposedly that the bilateral between Korea and the Philippines are full on the Korean end.
Therefore as part of the JV, it led to the decision to have DL flying a ICN-MNL frequency to get around the full bilateral restrictions on behalf of KE.
The South Korea/Philippines bilateral would have little to do with DL ending the SIN flights.

Should South Korea and Philippines be able to renegotiate their bilateral agreements to allow more capacity, KE would likely replace the DL frequency, therefore would likely lead to the end of the DL flights into MNL.


As I mentioned earlier on the thread, an industry insider reported that the flights were approved by Philippine Authorities using Korean, not American entitlements. Philippine authorities would not allow DL to skirt the existing limits imposed by the ROK-PH bilateral. I’d post a link, but are we allowed to link to other forums?

In any case, this would result in KE being forced to downgauge one of their flights. ICN-MNL on DL metal is coming at the expense of KE’s allocated seats. The cap to Manila under the Korean bilateral is based on seats, not frequencies.

Incidentally, KE just announced that they’re adding flights to CRK, which is another airport serving Metropolitan Manila.


The link will be appreciated. Did KE already downguage?


Not OP, but here you go.
 
Puissance
Posts: 40
Joined: Fri Dec 30, 2016 9:37 pm

Re: DL closing NRT. Suspends NRT-SIN, Announces ICN-MNL

Thu Sep 12, 2019 1:44 pm

SCFlyer wrote:
As said many times previously, a full plane does not equal profit in the airline industry. While a "full plane" may look good, it can still lose money per flight if the yields are very low (aka price sensitive VFR (Visiting Family Relatives)) passengers travelling mostly on discounted tickets.

The assumed consensus is that MNL is mostly a low yielding, VFR market full of price sensitive travellers with very little business/high yield demand to subsidise the economy passengers.


Yes, the point I was making about DTW was that tickets to MNL on DL (VFR traffic) are generally high for that type of ticket ($1300+), yet the small, but not insubstantial community in Michigan is generally paying that price and flying on DL with only some leakage to Chicago and elsewhere where tickets can be much lower ($600-800 r/t). The connections from DTW on other carriers are not priced appealingly, and the cheapest connections on Google flights usually involve Delta flying you to the West Coast to connect with a Chinese or Taiwanese carrier.

Flying to and from DTW, the new routes through Korea have much less appealing layovers or departure times than the current ideal schedule through NRT. It will be interesting to see if VFR traffic will still pay a premium for a fairly unappetizing schedule to DTW.

I think the role of the traditional consolidator has diminished over the years. Most of my friends from the Philippines are buying through the internet, and the traditional consolidators are not offering anything special, especially compared to Online Travel Agencies. DL retiring the 747 has reduced their surplus to Asia much of the time.
 
ITSTours
Posts: 409
Joined: Wed Nov 29, 2017 10:51 pm

Re: DL closing NRT. Suspends NRT-SIN, Announces ICN-MNL

Thu Sep 12, 2019 7:12 pm

idp5601 wrote:
ITSTours wrote:
LurveBus wrote:

As I mentioned earlier on the thread, an industry insider reported that the flights were approved by Philippine Authorities using Korean, not American entitlements. Philippine authorities would not allow DL to skirt the existing limits imposed by the ROK-PH bilateral. I’d post a link, but are we allowed to link to other forums?

In any case, this would result in KE being forced to downgauge one of their flights. ICN-MNL on DL metal is coming at the expense of KE’s allocated seats. The cap to Manila under the Korean bilateral is based on seats, not frequencies.

Incidentally, KE just announced that they’re adding flights to CRK, which is another airport serving Metropolitan Manila.


The link will be appreciated. Did KE already downguage?


Not OP, but here you go.


Thanks. It is hard to believe that Korean Air can concede their traffic right to Delta. DL isn't a South Korean carrier, and KE can't even give it to OZ even if they wanted to.

But anyway we can see if Korean Air downgauges. Someone up here observed no evidence of downgauging yet.
 
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flymco753
Posts: 3263
Joined: Fri Jun 10, 2016 2:09 am

Re: DL closing NRT. Suspends NRT-SIN, Announces ICN-MNL

Fri Sep 13, 2019 3:21 pm

Puissance wrote:
SCFlyer wrote:
As said many times previously, a full plane does not equal profit in the airline industry. While a "full plane" may look good, it can still lose money per flight if the yields are very low (aka price sensitive VFR (Visiting Family Relatives)) passengers travelling mostly on discounted tickets.

The assumed consensus is that MNL is mostly a low yielding, VFR market full of price sensitive travellers with very little business/high yield demand to subsidise the economy passengers.


Yes, the point I was making about DTW was that tickets to MNL on DL (VFR traffic) are generally high for that type of ticket ($1300+), yet the small, but not insubstantial community in Michigan is generally paying that price and flying on DL with only some leakage to Chicago and elsewhere where tickets can be much lower ($600-800 r/t). The connections from DTW on other carriers are not priced appealingly, and the cheapest connections on Google flights usually involve Delta flying you to the West Coast to connect with a Chinese or Taiwanese carrier.

Flying to and from DTW, the new routes through Korea have much less appealing layovers or departure times than the current ideal schedule through NRT. It will be interesting to see if VFR traffic will still pay a premium for a fairly unappetizing schedule to DTW.

I think the role of the traditional consolidator has diminished over the years. Most of my friends from the Philippines are buying through the internet, and the traditional consolidators are not offering anything special, especially compared to Online Travel Agencies. DL retiring the 747 has reduced their surplus to Asia much of the time.
ANA or JAL could make it appealing enough. It's certainly not a market to sleep on.
...the carriage of liquids, gels, and aerosols are prohibited through the screening checkpoint except for travel size toiletries of 3 ounces or less...
 
User avatar
jfklganyc
Posts: 5433
Joined: Mon Jan 05, 2004 2:31 pm

Re: DL closing NRT. Suspends NRT-SIN, Announces ICN-MNL

Fri Sep 13, 2019 3:56 pm

How long can Delta continue to ignore the JFKHND market?

just curious.

it has to be the biggest hole in their network from NY
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