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many321
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AM looking at A220 and E2-195 to replace its regional fleet.

Thu Aug 01, 2019 7:53 pm

Seems by the end of the year, AM will decide if they're going with the E2-195 or A220.

This is going to be interesting since they're restricted in MEX with growth and can't add more flights, in addition, they have close ties to Boeing, but also close ties to Delta who could influence them in selecting the A220. Let's see who wins this order.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... onal-fleet
 
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lightsaber
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Re: AM looking at A220 and E2-195 to replace its regional fleet.

Thu Aug 01, 2019 8:04 pm

From the OP link, 60 aircraft order to replace existing Embraer aircraft.

Claims of 25% and 35% larger, so this is E2-195 vs. A220-300 again. (The A220-100 is fractionally smaller than the E2-295).


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MIflyer12
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Re: AM looking at A220 and E2-195 to replace its regional fleet.

Thu Aug 01, 2019 8:09 pm

Delta's 95 A220s and another 60 would give some good economies of scale. Engine maintenance in Atlanta and airframe maintenance in QRO.
 
many321
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Re: AM looking at A220 and E2-195 to replace its regional fleet.

Thu Aug 01, 2019 8:10 pm

lightsaber wrote:
From the OP link, 60 aircraft order to replace existing Embraer aircraft.

Claims of 25% and 35% larger, so this is E2-195 vs. A220-300 again. (The A220-100 is fractionally smaller than the E2-295).


Lightsaber


From what I see it will depend how much growth via up gauging they'll want. However, having Delta with them perhaps could give them the push to the A220. Though, it would be nice to see Embraer win the order, plus it would be cheaper on them since the crews won't need retraining.
 
many321
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Re: AM looking at A220 and E2-195 to replace its regional fleet.

Thu Aug 01, 2019 8:12 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
Delta's 95 A220s and another 60 would give some good economies of scale. Engine maintenance in Atlanta and airframe maintenance in QRO.


Great point.
 
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ikolkyo
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Re: AM looking at A220 and E2-195 to replace its regional fleet.

Thu Aug 01, 2019 8:12 pm

This is one Embraer can’t afford to lose, they really gotta keep their current EJet customers like that have so far with KLMand Helvetic.
 
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zkojq
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Re: AM looking at A220 and E2-195 to replace its regional fleet.

Thu Aug 01, 2019 8:58 pm

Since the CSeries has a relatively large wing (hence it's excellent range), presumably it will be better in terms of Hot and High performance than its competitors? Quite critical for someone with a hub in Mexico City.
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T4thH
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Re: AM looking at A220 and E2-195 to replace its regional fleet.

Thu Aug 01, 2019 9:21 pm

many321 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
From the OP link, 60 aircraft order to replace existing Embraer aircraft.

Claims of 25% and 35% larger, so this is E2-195 vs. A220-300 again. (The A220-100 is fractionally smaller than the E2-295).


Lightsaber


From what I see it will depend how much growth via up gauging they'll want. However, having Delta with them perhaps could give them the push to the A220. Though, it would be nice to see Embraer win the order, plus it would be cheaper on them since the crews won't need retraining.

The benefit of experience for the pilots on E1 generation birds is limited; the E2 family is strong upgraded/modernized/new constructed, so these are new birds with an up to date cockpit design, they will need a complete retraining. So the benefit, to have had prior E1 family jets for an airline is limited and will not really help.

The biggest issue for the E2 family; they are still orphan birds, they are not selling well, they have firm orders primary from lessors and low from airlines (with exception or Brazilian airline Azul with 51 and some small ones, who had ordered only few), only one order from a legacy airline (KLM) and than just only 15....and 25 purchase rights and not even options (in comparison to the AF order of the AF/KLM group for 60 firm,, 30 options and 30 purchase rights (also official stated by Airbus as MoU, but this order will be firmed). Many MoU and LoI have been announced in last years for the E2, but less or more non of them have been firmed (in total difference to the A220 story, where we have seen regular MoU changed to firm and many directly firm orders and additional orders after first jets have been received or even before the first is received later on).

If I have verified correctly in last days, (and if we state the 60x AF A220 order as firm), since Airbus has taken over the A220 program in Jul-2019, according firm orders, the A220 is the second best sold bird, shortly behind the A320 family and in front of the B737 Max, ATR family and the E1 family orders.

A big order by Aeromexico will be essential for them and highly important for the world (the world will need a duopol, not a monopol in this class).
As Aeromexico is really looking for a short haul "regional" jet with just higher capacity and do not need a short to medium haul main line jet, the chance for Embraer is not bad in my opinion, to make the deal. But no one likes to buy an orphan bird.
 
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CarlosSi
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Re: AM looking at A220 and E2-195 to replace its regional fleet.

Thu Aug 01, 2019 9:31 pm

This would leave AM with just e170s as their regional jets, assuming they would only retire the e190s for the a220 or E2-95. Contrast to when they had as small as Saab340Bs (my first flight ever was on one, too).

Although those might go too, if they’re looking to boost capacity by that much. Wonder if this would result in cuts to any markets that can’t fill an E2-195 or a220.
 
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FLALEFTY
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Re: AM looking at A220 and E2-195 to replace its regional fleet.

Thu Aug 01, 2019 10:06 pm

This order is Boeing Brasil-Commercial's to lose.

The E195E2 has impressive "hot & high" performance specs, so it should be good in meeting AM's uncommon needs having a high-altitude airport as their main hub in MEX: https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... -e-437853/

It will also be easier to transition AM's current E1 pilots to the E2 due to high cockpit commonality. Coversion training is just 2.5 days, with no simulator time required. https://aviationweek.com/crossover-narr ... ommonality

Another advantage over the A220 is that the E2 program has a smaller order book/production backlog, so BB-C can be more aggressive than Airbus in terms of price and the delivery schedule.
 
T4thH
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Re: AM looking at A220 and E2-195 to replace its regional fleet.

Thu Aug 01, 2019 10:12 pm

zkojq wrote:
Since the CSeries has a relatively large wing (hence it's excellent range), presumably it will be better in terms of Hot and High performance than its competitors? Quite critical for someone with a hub in Mexico City.


Excellent point. The E195E2 has had an issue with hot and high airports, regarding this it already got 2016 a redesign (a prolonged wing and an MTOW increase) with an increased range.
Still the E195E2 is an slightly underpowered overstreched bird in comparison to the E190E2; and as Mexico city airport is 2000 m high, it will have a few hundred km decrease in range.
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/embraer-announces-design-revamp-of-e195-e2-422341/
Denver airport is 1600 m high and not so hot as Mexico city airport with 2000 m.

During last year world tour, the Air Baltic A220-300 was also in Nepal, but the airport of Katmandu is only 1300 m high. The A220-100 is excellent in hot and high, I am not aware how good the A220-300 is. It has a shorter takeof MTOW than the E195 E2.
 
many321
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Re: AM looking at A220 and E2-195 to replace its regional fleet.

Thu Aug 01, 2019 10:55 pm

T4thH wrote:
many321 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
From the OP link, 60 aircraft order to replace existing Embraer aircraft.

Claims of 25% and 35% larger, so this is E2-195 vs. A220-300 again. (The A220-100 is fractionally smaller than the E2-295).


Lightsaber


From what I see it will depend how much growth via up gauging they'll want. However, having Delta with them perhaps could give them the push to the A220. Though, it would be nice to see Embraer win the order, plus it would be cheaper on them since the crews won't need retraining.

The benefit of experience for the pilots on E1 generation birds is limited; the E2 family is strong upgraded/modernized/new constructed, so these are new birds with an up to date cockpit design, they will need a complete retraining. So the benefit, to have had prior E1 family jets for an airline is limited and will not really help.

The biggest issue for the E2 family; they are still orphan birds, they are not selling well, they have firm orders primary from lessors and low from airlines (with exception or Brazilian airline Azul with 51 and some small ones, who had ordered only few), only one order from a legacy airline (KLM) and than just only 15....and 25 purchase rights and not even options (in comparison to the AF order of the AF/KLM group for 60 firm,, 30 options and 30 purchase rights (also official stated by Airbus as MoU, but this order will be firmed). Many MoU and LoI have been announced in last years for the E2, but less or more non of them have been firmed (in total difference to the A220 story, where we have seen regular MoU changed to firm and many directly firm orders and additional orders after first jets have been received or even before the first is received later on).

If I have verified correctly in last days, (and if we state the 60x AF A220 order as firm), since Airbus has taken over the A220 program in Jul-2019, according firm orders, the A220 is the second best sold bird, shortly behind the A320 family and in front of the B737 Max, ATR family and the E1 family orders.

A big order by Aeromexico will be essential for them and highly important for the world (the world will need a duopol, not a monopol in this class).
As Aeromexico is really looking for a short haul "regional" jet with just higher capacity and do not need a short to medium haul main line jet, the chance for Embraer is not bad in my opinion, to make the deal. But no one likes to buy an orphan bird.


Now that you bring up the updated cockpit and crews needing re-training then it seems both Airbus and Embraer are on equal footing.

Though, I do agree most companies are not keen with orphans. Plus having Delta as a partner who could service the aircraft in Atlanta as MIflyer12 has mentioned...then Embraer has to fight for the order
 
T4thH
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Re: AM looking at A220 and E2-195 to replace its regional fleet.

Thu Aug 01, 2019 11:24 pm

Yes, Embraer will have to fight for the order and it is not clear, who will win. The A220-300 is the superior bird and it has still a big potential for ongoing upgrading and PIPs.
The question is, what Aeromexico at least want*s to have. If they just want a short haul regional bird like the already in use E190 with just more capacity, the E195E2 will be the best. If they are willed to have more, perhaps later on to take the chance to use them also as medium haul jet; than the A220 will be better. If every single PAX/bird is important for them (as the capacity of the airports is at the maximum), the A220-300 has just the bigger capacity (and it is more than likely, later on a A220-500 version will be developed). I do not believe, there will be a further "upgrade" of the E195 E2, it is already overstreched. So if they will need more birds in some years, they will get the chance to buy a bird with a bigger capacity (A220-500), and still have not to implement an additional aircraft type.

Will be interesting to see, which one at least they will order.
 
SEU
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Re: AM looking at A220 and E2-195 to replace its regional fleet.

Thu Aug 01, 2019 11:44 pm

I really hope its a decent order for the E2. It needs orders badly.

However I fear they will choose the A220, from what I have read its better in hot and high conditions.
 
TObound
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Re: AM looking at A220 and E2-195 to replace its regional fleet.

Fri Aug 02, 2019 12:39 am

Embraer's to lose. Given the incumbent fleet advantage, the lack of needed performance and the shorter backlog (earliest delivery is probably 2022 now) Airbus is at a disadvantage.

Despite the larger jet, Airbus probably needs to price competitively and pledge to ramp faster. That's tough.
 
TObound
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Re: AM looking at A220 and E2-195 to replace its regional fleet.

Fri Aug 02, 2019 12:46 am

SEU wrote:
I really hope its a decent order for the E2. It needs orders badly.


Nah. Happy to see Boeing take a beating as their $4 billion Brazilian purchase turns out to be a bit of a lemon.

I said at the time, Boeing needed to acquire the CSeries more than Airbus. Mitsubishi is going to eat the E2 from below. And the A220 from the top. They'll eventually realize they need to launch the NSA since that's the only way to keep marketshare in the 100-150 class.

It's unfortunate that the E2 has the advantage here.
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: AM looking at A220 and E2-195 to replace its regional fleet.

Fri Aug 02, 2019 2:57 am

With Delta effectively as the manager of Aeromexico, this seems tailor-made for a "top-off order for 60 frames for Aeromexico of the A220 variety, and I'll say 30 BCS1s and 30 BCS3s if Airbus wins the order. If Delta were not the effective manager of Aeromexico, I'd say that this would have been a cinch for the E290/E295. However, this might be a case where Boeing prices aggressively to win this order, as they don't want to be shut out of North America, especially given how so many first-generation E-Jet sales went to the USA.

Prediction: Boeing Brasil wins the order...you have similar engines powering both frames, and Boeing Brasil can provide earlier slots.
 
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TWA772LR
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Re: AM looking at A220 and E2-195 to replace its regional fleet.

Fri Aug 02, 2019 4:00 am

AM can possibly leverage the MAX grounding for a Boeing kickback in the form of steeply discounted E2s.
When wasn't America great?


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lightsaber
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Re: AM looking at A220 and E2-195 to replace its regional fleet.

Fri Aug 02, 2019 2:05 pm

With Aeromexico looking to upgauge, with the DL influence, I think the A220 has an edge.

E-jet opperators have bought the A220: AC, B6, I think people overestimate the cost of switching types.

But the E2-195 could be attractive. Of the current A230 vs. E2, I find this and IAG the most facinating.

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ODwyerPW
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Re: AM looking at A220 and E2-195 to replace its regional fleet.

Fri Aug 02, 2019 4:14 pm

Interesting with AeroMexico having an all Boeing Fleet and AeroMexico Connect having an all Embraer Fleet. Really it's Boeing/Embraer's to lose.

I don't think this will be political at all.... Embraer Commercial is Boeing (US) owned but the E190E2/E195E2 would be produced in Brazil. The A220 program is AeroBus (Europe) owned, but 0the A220100/A220300 would probably be produced in Mobile, Alabama... One could argue political impacts of such a large purchase both ways.....

I think it will come down to the best plane for them.
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iceberg210
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Re: AM looking at A220 and E2-195 to replace its regional fleet.

Fri Aug 02, 2019 5:01 pm

lightsaber wrote:
With Aeromexico looking to upgauge, with the DL influence, I think the A220 has an edge.

E-jet opperators have bought the A220: AC, B6, I think people overestimate the cost of switching types.

But the E2-195 could be attractive. Of the current A230 vs. E2, I find this and IAG the most facinating.

Lightsaber

Seems to me the downside risk of becoming an orphan fleet is too high and that it's time for Embraer to 'bet the farm' ala what Bombardier did with the Delta order to land AM and IAG, or at least two 50+ orders this year no matter where it comes from. The downside of not securing as you've said before a size of fleet big enough for PIP's etc is just too high not to basically take a bath to get there.
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SteelChair
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Re: AM looking at A220 and E2-195 to replace its regional fleet.

Fri Aug 02, 2019 5:56 pm

Seems interesting that Delta and its partners KAL and AF already have or are getting A220s. Can AM be far behind? How about Westjet? Its Canadian, after all.

The Delta network alone could keep the A220 program going, perhaps it already has.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: AM looking at A220 and E2-195 to replace its regional fleet.

Fri Aug 02, 2019 7:52 pm

iceberg210 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
With Aeromexico looking to upgauge, with the DL influence, I think the A220 has an edge.

E-jet opperators have bought the A220: AC, B6, I think people overestimate the cost of switching types.

But the E2-195 could be attractive. Of the current A230 vs. E2, I find this and IAG the most facinating.

Lightsaber

Seems to me the downside risk of becoming an orphan fleet is too high and that it's time for Embraer to 'bet the farm' ala what Bombardier did with the Delta order to land AM and IAG, or at least two 50+ orders this year no matter where it comes from. The downside of not securing as you've said before a size of fleet big enough for PIP's etc is just too high not to basically take a bath to get there.

I agree with you.

Airbus/Bombardier took their medicine with AC, Delta, JetBlue and Moxie. They had enough operators by end of 2018 ALC ordered.

Embraer hasn't yet secured the large operating base to pay for PiPs or even a great supply network.

I agree 60 in 2019 (includes firming 15 from KLM) would really help. Winning 26 from IAG (going from memory) and 60 from AM for a nice 101 orders would really help.

Who is servicing PW1900G engines besides Pratt and MTU? At this point there are more shops than demand justified for the PW1500G. The later favors airlines negotiating to cut service bills. Just look at the V2500D5, once there was only one shop, the viability of the MD-90 was threatened.

I'm not sure how many CF-34-8 or -10 shops there are. For the -8, there must be 7+ shops. For the -10 6+. There needs to be at least 4 for good bidding.

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TObound
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Re: AM looking at A220 and E2-195 to replace its regional fleet.

Fri Aug 02, 2019 8:21 pm

SteelChair wrote:
Seems interesting that Delta and its partners KAL and AF already have or are getting A220s. Can AM be far behind? How about Westjet? Its Canadian, after all.

The Delta network alone could keep the A220 program going, perhaps it already has.


WestJet is effectively the Southwest of Canada. Only Boeing. They had Q400s for regional. But there's no way they would buy 220s now. Maybe they'll consider the E2-95.
 
TObound
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Re: AM looking at A220 and E2-195 to replace its regional fleet.

Fri Aug 02, 2019 8:45 pm

lightsaber wrote:
With Aeromexico looking to upgauge, with the DL influence, I think the A220 has an edge.

E-jet opperators have bought the A220: AC, B6, I think people overestimate the cost of switching types.

But the E2-195 could be attractive. Of the current A230 vs. E2, I find this and IAG the most facinating.

Lightsaber


I'm with you. I don't think conversion from the E-Jets to the A220 is that daunting a prospect. It comes down to how much they value the 220s additional capability.

Aeromexico is really interesting to look at. Super constrained at MEX. But then AM Connect is less constrained at GDL and MTY. Does the 10% additional passenger capacity, 750nm extra range and runway length reduced by 260 ft really worth paying more over whatever scorcher of a deal a desperate Embraer gives? What's the additional net present value of the extra 15-20 seats over the life of the airframe? And how does that compare to the cost difference in price? That's the question.

An E2 buy is more of a 1:1 swap for Connect's existing fleet with a boost in capacity. An A220 buy would be a different beast altogether. With more capacity and more capability, it would probably replace their mainline 73Gs and probably make GDL and MTY more independent as hubs in their own rights. Do they really want that?
 
jbs2886
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Re: AM looking at A220 and E2-195 to replace its regional fleet.

Fri Aug 02, 2019 9:11 pm

TObound wrote:
SteelChair wrote:
Seems interesting that Delta and its partners KAL and AF already have or are getting A220s. Can AM be far behind? How about Westjet? Its Canadian, after all.

The Delta network alone could keep the A220 program going, perhaps it already has.


WestJet is effectively the Southwest of Canada. Only Boeing. They had Q400s for regional. But there's no way they would buy 220s now. Maybe they'll consider the E2-95.


WestJet looks nothing like Southwest. Premium seating, widebodies, regional planes, and an ULCC. Being a mostly Boeing doesn’t make them the same, but Canadian.
 
TObound
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Re: AM looking at A220 and E2-195 to replace its regional fleet.

Fri Aug 02, 2019 11:13 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
TObound wrote:
SteelChair wrote:
Seems interesting that Delta and its partners KAL and AF already have or are getting A220s. Can AM be far behind? How about Westjet? Its Canadian, after all.

The Delta network alone could keep the A220 program going, perhaps it already has.


WestJet is effectively the Southwest of Canada. Only Boeing. They had Q400s for regional. But there's no way they would buy 220s now. Maybe they'll consider the E2-95.


WestJet looks nothing like Southwest. Premium seating, widebodies, regional planes, and an ULCC. Being a mostly Boeing doesn’t make them the same, but Canadian.


The premium seating and regional fleet is more recent. The ULCC is very recent. They were Southwestesque for most of their history. And when they did buy the Q400s, they made a point of noting that Boeing had no product for them in that class. This is why, if anything, I think they'll consider the E2.
 
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OA940
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Re: AM looking at A220 and E2-195 to replace its regional fleet.

Fri Aug 02, 2019 11:38 pm

I don't get how people can think there is a clear option for them. On one hand the A220 is a larger jet which, with the new MEX project now dead, they're gonna need, and they have Delta to back it up. On the other hand, Embraer can offer pretty early deliveries for the E2, and, let's be real, they're desperate for orders and such a large order from a major airline would be a lifeline, plus the MAX grounding could lead to an even greater discount now that Boeing and Embraer are getting in bed together. Then again the whole MAX situation could be a reason AM may steer away from Boeing on this one. Neither type has any major advantage or disadvantage and honestly it's anyone's guess at this point
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TheRedBaron
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Re: AM looking at A220 and E2-195 to replace its regional fleet.

Fri Aug 02, 2019 11:50 pm

If they go Embraer/Boeing, they will need to give them a killer price, and some nice freebies included. My money is on the A200 Series.

OTOH they could buy some nicely used Russian Airplanes for a song :duck:

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