yyzmdw
Topic Author
Posts: 5
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BA to YYZ -- Why the Decline

Sat Aug 03, 2019 9:19 pm

I remember not too long ago when BA sent at least 1 daily 747 to YYZ with 77Ws in the mix...now it's down to 1 772/787 a day and the leased Air Belgium A343, for a max of two flights a day. We're scheduled to get the A35K in the fall, but why in the past few years has capacity been reduced so much? Why the change? Yields/competition from AC?
 
TC957
Posts: 3505
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Re: BA to YYZ -- Why the Decline

Sat Aug 03, 2019 9:26 pm

Plenty of competition and alternative direct flight options. Not just from AC.
 
Weatherwatcher1
Posts: 262
Joined: Sun Mar 03, 2019 5:14 pm

Re: BA to YYZ -- Why the Decline

Sat Aug 03, 2019 9:35 pm

There is a lot of competition from Air Canada as well as Air Transat and Westjet to LGW.

BA carries a significant amount of connecting traffic to India. Etihad and Emirates increasing frequency likely had a detrimental impact for BA.
 
vectismanpaul
Posts: 108
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 7:17 am

Re: BA to YYZ -- Why the Decline

Sat Aug 03, 2019 9:37 pm

The leased Air Belgium is to cover 787 maintenance. BA also flies London Gatwick to Toronto 5 times weekly this summer, up from 3 last summer. So really little difference. 787 engine issues nearly sorted too.
 
kimimm19
Posts: 387
Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2013 9:34 pm

Re: BA to YYZ -- Why the Decline

Sat Aug 03, 2019 11:26 pm

AC offers significant capacity on this route. In addition, BA 747s have never been brimmed and have been reasonably premium heavy.
 
whywhyzee
Posts: 1046
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Re: BA to YYZ -- Why the Decline

Sun Aug 04, 2019 1:11 am

The route is growing ever so slightly in terms of total pax, up 4.1% last year to 1.09 million. BA used to be 3x daily from LHR in the high season, now they have an LGW and 2 LHRs. Air Canada now has 3x daily 77Ws and 1x 787, whoch represents a huge increase in capacity compared to the pre 10 abreast 777 days. Considering as well in the past there was only TS to LGW, now we see WS with a daily flight on top of Transat, it's also worth competing on. Total capacity wise, both airports are an important part of the city pair.

BA also used to have a codeshare agreement with WestJet which was dropped, so they lost all feed on the YYZ end, making their presence in essence all O/D, considering the number of non-stop options you can get from YYZ to Europe and Asia.
 
LH658
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Joined: Thu Oct 13, 2016 7:35 am

Re: BA to YYZ -- Why the Decline

Sun Aug 04, 2019 3:59 am

AC also has direct flights to India, plus a lot of traffic probably connecting on to Star hubs like FRA, ZRH, MUC, and etc.
 
SueD
Posts: 31
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Re: BA to YYZ -- Why the Decline

Sun Aug 04, 2019 7:33 am

Core economy traffic between the UK and Canada has been in general decline for thirty years !

The heydays were the seventies and early eighties with dozens of VFR flights the Toronto from just about every paved 7500’ + runway.here.
 
lhrsfosyd91
Posts: 101
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Re: BA to YYZ -- Why the Decline

Sun Aug 04, 2019 9:34 am

I do think there's room for modest growth especially a morning departure from LHR at around 10am
 
jamsco99
Posts: 63
Joined: Wed Jul 20, 2016 11:02 am

Re: BA to YYZ -- Why the Decline

Sun Aug 04, 2019 10:38 am

Although not yyz, I flew ba yul to lhr last week.
Only about 25 people on the flight were o&d with the majority connecting.
The stewards announced some info about connecting to India (wasnt really listening so dont know what)
 
bhxalex
Posts: 176
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Re: BA to YYZ -- Why the Decline

Sun Aug 04, 2019 11:20 am

lhrsfosyd91 wrote:
I do think there's room for modest growth especially a morning departure from LHR at around 10am


Room for growth with what slots and aircraft?
 
lhrsfosyd91
Posts: 101
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Re: BA to YYZ -- Why the Decline

Sun Aug 04, 2019 12:29 pm

bhxalex wrote:
lhrsfosyd91 wrote:
I do think there's room for modest growth especially a morning departure from LHR at around 10am


Room for growth with what slots and aircraft?


Same aircraft and slots that allowed growth year after year on long haul.
 
by738
Posts: 2994
Joined: Wed Sep 20, 2000 7:59 am

Re: BA to YYZ -- Why the Decline

Sun Aug 04, 2019 1:05 pm

lhrsfosyd91 wrote:
I do think there's room for modest growth especially a morning departure from LHR at around 10am

But would depend on whether 'modest growth' on an alternative route would bring in more profits. Thats what IAG is all about now. I get the impression LON-CAN is low yield generally.
 
peterinlisbon
Posts: 1517
Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2006 3:37 am

Re: BA to YYZ -- Why the Decline

Sun Aug 04, 2019 2:57 pm

It could be something to do with the declining pound vs. the Canadian, which makes Canada more expensive.
 
EChid
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Nov 03, 2017 4:00 am

Re: BA to YYZ -- Why the Decline

Sun Aug 04, 2019 3:27 pm

by738 wrote:
lhrsfosyd91 wrote:
I do think there's room for modest growth especially a morning departure from LHR at around 10am

But would depend on whether 'modest growth' on an alternative route would bring in more profits. Thats what IAG is all about now. I get the impression LON-CAN is low yield generally.


Certainly. That would be why nothing, or almost nothing is operated to Canada with F in it (seasonal A380 to YVR and a few other exceptions). As for the OP, don't assume that just because a 747 was operating the route they are flying fewer pax today. The whole problem with the 747s for many airlines is that they existed for range and regulatory reasons in fleets, but not because they were actually suitably sized.

I would say that this route has actually seen significant growth compared to a few decades ago, considering the number of daily flights (and that this is the only Canadian route that supports a daytime departure to Europe, something I've long been hoping would happen to CDG-YUL).
2018: DRW-PER-HKG-ICN-MEL-AVV-BNE-OOL-SYD-YYZ-YYZ-YUL-YVR-PDX-SEA-SFO-PEK-KIX-CDG-IST-NRT-HND-BKK-FAT; AC J-TK J-OZ F-DL F-TG J/F-NH J/F-CX J-VA J
 
bhxalex
Posts: 176
Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2019 8:40 am

Re: BA to YYZ -- Why the Decline

Sun Aug 04, 2019 5:28 pm

bhxalex wrote:
lhrsfosyd91 wrote:
I do think there's room for modest growth especially a morning departure from LHR at around 10am


Room for growth with what slots and aircraft?


Requiring atleast one route to be cut, I can't imagine too much more short haul will be trimmed or else the european network starts looking looks sparse.
 
Chemist
Posts: 573
Joined: Tue Oct 20, 2015 4:46 am

Re: BA to YYZ -- Why the Decline

Sun Aug 04, 2019 5:29 pm

BA service has gone subpar relative to the competitors?
 
lhrsfosyd91
Posts: 101
Joined: Sun Apr 28, 2019 6:47 pm

Re: BA to YYZ -- Why the Decline

Sun Aug 04, 2019 6:16 pm

bhxalex wrote:
bhxalex wrote:
lhrsfosyd91 wrote:
I do think there's room for modest growth especially a morning departure from LHR at around 10am


Room for growth with what slots and aircraft?


Requiring atleast one route to be cut, I can't imagine too much more short haul will be trimmed or else the european network starts looking looks sparse.


A route does not have to be cut to make room for expansion. If BA really needed to, it could extend Air Belgium lease, transfer more TATL flights to AA or retime existing flights to increase aircraft utilisation. As for slots, plenty of room to maintain the capacity given that the A319s are going.
 
whywhyzee
Posts: 1046
Joined: Tue Jan 05, 2016 3:12 am

Re: BA to YYZ -- Why the Decline

Sun Aug 04, 2019 6:49 pm

EChid wrote:
by738 wrote:
lhrsfosyd91 wrote:
I do think there's room for modest growth especially a morning departure from LHR at around 10am

But would depend on whether 'modest growth' on an alternative route would bring in more profits. Thats what IAG is all about now. I get the impression LON-CAN is low yield generally.


Certainly. That would be why nothing, or almost nothing is operated to Canada with F in it (seasonal A380 to YVR and a few other exceptions). As for the OP, don't assume that just because a 747 was operating the route they are flying fewer pax today. The whole problem with the 747s for many airlines is that they existed for range and regulatory reasons in fleets, but not because they were actually suitably sized.

I would say that this route has actually seen significant growth compared to a few decades ago, considering the number of daily flights (and that this is the only Canadian route that supports a daytime departure to Europe, something I've long been hoping would happen to CDG-YUL).


YYZ gets F as well, usually stops in the winter, though not for the whole winter season, F seats are sold as J during that period.
 
by738
Posts: 2994
Joined: Wed Sep 20, 2000 7:59 am

Re: BA to YYZ -- Why the Decline

Sun Aug 04, 2019 7:08 pm

lhrsfosyd91 wrote:
plenty of room to maintain the capacity given that the A319s are going.

I don't think that follows... Number of aircraft in fleet and slots available are not the same thing, plus there is no deficit in fleet numbers as the A319's are being replaced like for like.
 
gunnerman
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Joined: Fri May 19, 2017 7:55 pm

Re: BA to YYZ -- Why the Decline

Sun Aug 04, 2019 9:14 pm

If you go back about 20 years BA had LHR-YYZ 10 times a week with the 747, plus a daily BHX-JFK-YYZ with the 757. These days it's double-daily LHR-YYZ year-round with LGW-YYZ three times a week this summer until 29 September (resuming 1 May 2020).
 
lhrsfosyd91
Posts: 101
Joined: Sun Apr 28, 2019 6:47 pm

Re: BA to YYZ -- Why the Decline

Sun Aug 04, 2019 9:26 pm

by738 wrote:
lhrsfosyd91 wrote:
plenty of room to maintain the capacity given that the A319s are going.

I don't think that follows... Number of aircraft in fleet and slots available are not the same thing, plus there is no deficit in fleet numbers as the A319's are being replaced like for like.


It does follow. You can reduce frequencies while maintaining capacity.
 
vectismanpaul
Posts: 108
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 7:17 am

Re: BA to YYZ -- Why the Decline

Sun Aug 04, 2019 9:40 pm

Gunnerman. LGW-YYZ is 5 times weekly this summer.
 
CRJ900
Posts: 2352
Joined: Wed Jun 02, 2004 2:48 am

Re: BA to YYZ -- Why the Decline

Sun Aug 04, 2019 10:00 pm

With 331 seats, the A350-1000 will boost capacity on YYZ, though...?
Come, fly the prevailing winds with me
 
gunnerman
Posts: 886
Joined: Fri May 19, 2017 7:55 pm

Re: BA to YYZ -- Why the Decline

Sun Aug 04, 2019 11:40 pm

vectismanpaul wrote:
Gunnerman. LGW-YYZ is 5 times weekly this summer.

Having just checked I see flights on Tuesdays, Fridays, Saturdays and Sundays in August.
 
TObound
Posts: 311
Joined: Mon May 27, 2019 12:54 am

Re: BA to YYZ -- Why the Decline

Mon Aug 05, 2019 1:19 am

I think two major factors in the recent decline of BA at YYZ:

1) The increase of flights to Gatwick.

2) AC's direct services to India.
 
YYZLGA
Posts: 362
Joined: Fri Dec 09, 2016 4:28 am

Re: BA to YYZ -- Why the Decline

Tue Aug 06, 2019 3:07 am

SueD wrote:
Core economy traffic between the UK and Canada has been in general decline for thirty years !

The heydays were the seventies and early eighties with dozens of VFR flights the Toronto from just about every paved 7500’ + runway.here.


Was there ever a non-stop to YYZ from BFS?
 
QueenoftheSkies
Posts: 209
Joined: Sun Jan 29, 2017 4:48 am

Re: BA to YYZ -- Why the Decline

Tue Aug 06, 2019 3:16 am

CRJ900 wrote:
With 331 seats, the A350-1000 will boost capacity on YYZ, though...?


Available seats isn’t the issue. Butts in the seats is the problem.
 
User avatar
northstardc4m
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Re: BA to YYZ -- Why the Decline

Tue Aug 06, 2019 2:01 pm

YYZLGA wrote:
SueD wrote:
Core economy traffic between the UK and Canada has been in general decline for thirty years !

The heydays were the seventies and early eighties with dozens of VFR flights the Toronto from just about every paved 7500’ + runway.here.


Was there ever a non-stop to YYZ from BFS?


On BA or AC, no.

TS has done it though. "Charters" going back have served BFS but not sure if they were non-stops or not.

I want to say Nationair did it but I don't see it on either route map I have.
Those who would give up Essential Liberty to purchase a little Temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety.
 
skipness1E
Posts: 4512
Joined: Sun Aug 19, 2007 9:18 am

Re: BA to YYZ -- Why the Decline

Tue Aug 06, 2019 2:14 pm

Worldways certainly flew BFS-YYZ, WB964 / 965 from memory (!)
Transat also served the route.
 
EChid
Posts: 546
Joined: Fri Nov 03, 2017 4:00 am

Re: BA to YYZ -- Why the Decline

Tue Aug 06, 2019 7:29 pm

QueenoftheSkies wrote:
CRJ900 wrote:
With 331 seats, the A350-1000 will boost capacity on YYZ, though...?


Available seats isn’t the issue. Butts in the seats is the problem.

If butts in seats were the issue then BA wouldn't be sending a larger capacity aircraft to YYZ. They have more than enough plane types to size up and down as appropriate.
2018: DRW-PER-HKG-ICN-MEL-AVV-BNE-OOL-SYD-YYZ-YYZ-YUL-YVR-PDX-SEA-SFO-PEK-KIX-CDG-IST-NRT-HND-BKK-FAT; AC J-TK J-OZ F-DL F-TG J/F-NH J/F-CX J-VA J
 
steveinbc
Posts: 265
Joined: Sun Sep 13, 2015 4:30 pm

Re: BA to YYZ -- Why the Decline

Tue Aug 06, 2019 7:44 pm

YYZLGA wrote:
SueD wrote:
Core economy traffic between the UK and Canada has been in general decline for thirty years !

The heydays were the seventies and early eighties with dozens of VFR flights the Toronto from just about every paved 7500’ + runway.here.


Was there ever a non-stop to YYZ from BFS?

Off topic I know. But nonetheless interesting
In the good old days at Aldergrove (BFS) I recall the Ulster Maple Leaf Club chartering mostly Air Canada to YYZ twice a week. They brought in the stretched DC8 600s and the B747.
As an aside Quebecair brought in B707 for YUL and Nationair brought in DC8s for YUL too.
A319 320 321 330 340 380 B707 727 737 747 757 767 777 787 BAe1-11 Trident 1, 2, 3B Viscount Lancaster VC10 HS748, ATP DHC-1, 3 Dash-8 Dash-400 Shorts 330 360 Embraer Banderiante Brasileria 175 190 BAe146 Saab 200 DC-3 -8 -9 -10 MD-11 ATR42-72
 
b4thefall
Posts: 67
Joined: Wed May 04, 2016 7:12 pm

Re: BA to YYZ -- Why the Decline

Tue Aug 06, 2019 8:50 pm

steveinbc wrote:
YYZLGA wrote:
SueD wrote:
Core economy traffic between the UK and Canada has been in general decline for thirty years !

The heydays were the seventies and early eighties with dozens of VFR flights the Toronto from just about every paved 7500’ + runway.here.


Was there ever a non-stop to YYZ from BFS?

Off topic I know. But nonetheless interesting
In the good old days at Aldergrove (BFS) I recall the Ulster Maple Leaf Club chartering mostly Air Canada to YYZ twice a week. They brought in the stretched DC8 600s and the B747.
As an aside Quebecair brought in B707 for YUL and Nationair brought in DC8s for YUL too.



BFS had direct non stop flights to YYZ for many many years. I myself flew the route on AC 747's & L1011s. Other airlines included Transat, Air Club, Royal, Canada 3000 and others already mentioned. I once saw 2 1011s parked beside each other at BFS (Transat and Royal).

Interestingly, my mother's first ever flight was on a Flying Tiger Line Connie from the old Nutts Corner airport to YYZ in 1958!

Nearly every regional airport in the UK with a long enough runway used to have flights to Canada. As the decades have passed , people have died and connections have loosened, most of this VFR traffic has disappeared.
 
Airlinerdude
Posts: 114
Joined: Tue Mar 30, 2010 3:07 am

Re: BA to YYZ -- Why the Decline

Wed Aug 07, 2019 12:53 am

YYZLGA wrote:
SueD wrote:
Core economy traffic between the UK and Canada has been in general decline for thirty years !

The heydays were the seventies and early eighties with dozens of VFR flights the Toronto from just about every paved 7500’ + runway.here.


Was there ever a non-stop to YYZ from BFS?


Zoom Airlines (Z4) used to fly from YYZ to BFS until their demise in 2008.

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