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A333MSPtoAMS
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Re: OAG Changes 8/5/2019:AC Drops OMA;NK Builds MCO,Suspends DEN-LAX,FLL-JAX/MCI/GSO/AVL,Adds PHX-SEA;UA Adds DEN-HOB

Sun Aug 04, 2019 10:00 pm

I didn't realize MSP was seasonal
*FI KEF-MSP JAN 0.6>0.1[0.1] FEB 0.6>0[0]


It was seasonal for many years but last winter they went to year round with the introduction of the 737MAX aircraft. Now that they are grounded, I suspect that is the reason behind the return to 'seasonal' service.
As of Dec 2018 I've flown 417,862 miles on 250 flights on 51 airplane types with 55 airlines traveling thru 97 airports in 43 countries. I've visited 59 countries. 2019 is looking like a pretty decent year for me.
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jonair8
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Re: OAG Changes 8/5/2019:AC Drops OMA;NK Builds MCO,Suspends DEN-LAX,FLL-JAX/MCI/GSO/AVL,Adds PHX-SEA;UA Adds DEN-HOB

Sun Aug 04, 2019 10:10 pm

Also interesting to see ONT-SLC go up to 5x in May. Hasn't been that way since the early 2000s. 1x 738 and 4x OO E7W-SC is a great fit. DL is really stepping up their game in ONT again. Of course we won't see 763s as other a.nutters have been so quick to have to point out, but hoping for 739s, which are roughly the same capacity as the 757s were when DL operated the flight pre-recession. The DL 757's niche today is different than it was when it was flying ONT-ATL.

Would like to see DL bring back ONT-MSP next.
 
hiflyeras
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Re: OAG Changes 8/5/2019:AC Drops OMA;NK Builds MCO,Suspends DEN-LAX,FLL-JAX/MCI/GSO/AVL,Adds PHX-SEA;UA Adds DEN-HOB

Sun Aug 04, 2019 10:27 pm

Lots of adds by AS...interesting as their new airframe deliveries are now totally dependant on the MAX getting back in the air. They were supposed to have three by year-end. If this doesn't happen by November I wonder if we'll see this stick?
 
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enilria
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Re: OAG Changes 8/5/2019:AC Drops OMA;NK Builds MCO,Suspends DEN-LAX,FLL-JAX/MCI/GSO/AVL,Adds PHX-SEA;UA Adds DEN-HOB

Sun Aug 04, 2019 10:42 pm

SANFan wrote:
In fact I just looked at the Nov skeds for AS and guess what? In November, PDX-SFO will op with 6 mainline jets & 1 EMJ (totaling 7 per day) while PDX-SJC will be 6 flights a day, but 4 will be EMJs & 2 Boeings. Looks like definitely more capacity at SFO than SJC.

I also see that AS is putting an EMJ on PDX-SAN -- as the new 4th daily flight -- so there does appear to be re-gauging of a/c in some markets. In fact, that could explain the increase in SJC-SNA service although I still don't know where AS got the additional slots at SNA.

bb

Whether it is a conscious decision to move a trip or performance is better in SJC justifying an added trip, either is interesting. Again, it's just another scrap of info. It's not proof of anything in the works.
Cubsrule wrote:
enilria wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:

I think they are generally moving off of transborder routes. Places like BNA get CR9s with less frequency in the fall.

Ok, so not certain. Just tea leaf reading?


I think some things have changed with the transition of Air Georgian aircraft from to Chorus/Jazz but can’t find any announcement. The CRJs originally were to transition to Jazz by the end of 2019 but in the January timetable I see Air Georgian flights to virtually all current cities (the exceptions are CLT, BNA, and RDU, which see upgrades to 76-seat equipment). I can’t help with the current plan.

I saw some other CRJs on the transborder schedule for next Summer. I'll keep an eye on it.
Runway28L wrote:
With NK building up MCO, perhaps they are not only trying to compete against WN, but also getting ahead of B6? Terminal C will open in a few years and JetBlue is supposed to be the largest tenant IINM. I wonder how NK could affect any long-term expansion planned by B6.

NK keeps talking about grabbing real estate. I wouldn't be surprised at all if this had more to do with grabbing future gates in MCO and less with current economics.
red66mustang wrote:
jplatts wrote:
enilria wrote:
*NK PHX-SEA NOV 0>0.6[0] DEC 0>1.0[0] JAN 0>1.0[0] FEB 0>1.0[0] MAR 0>1.0[0] APR 0>0.7[0]


I am surprised to see NK add PHX-SEA nonstop service, especially since NK has a minimal presence in the PHX market.

There are still some other nonstop routes that could be added by NK out of PHX such as PHX-ATL, PHX-DTW, PHX-FLL, PHX-LAS, PHX-MCO, and PHX-TPA.


NK's new VP of Network was the VP at AS before he got sacked in the layoffs last fall. I have to wonder if this route is based on knowledge gained on the market at AS.

Certainly we have seen over and over again where there is a personnel change in Network and they bring their fave routes from their prior employer along. So, good theory.
A333MSPtoAMS wrote:
I didn't realize MSP was seasonal
*FI KEF-MSP JAN 0.6>0.1[0.1] FEB 0.6>0[0]


It was seasonal for many years but last winter they went to year round with the introduction of the 737MAX aircraft. Now that they are grounded, I suspect that is the reason behind the return to 'seasonal' service.

It says it was 0 last February. Perhaps it was 10 months last year? I agree that it seems like it was all year in the past.
MDW22L31C wrote:
Nice to see increase in flights to ONT by DL And AS. Finally a non-stop flight from ORD to ONT by AA

I also noticed that. Nice!
hiflyeras wrote:
Lots of adds by AS...interesting as their new airframe deliveries are now totally dependant on the MAX getting back in the air. They were supposed to have three by year-end. If this doesn't happen by November I wonder if we'll see this stick?

I'm not expecting the MAX till Summer 2020. I think March is possible, but very optimistic.
 
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SANFan
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Re: OAG Changes 8/5/2019:AC Drops OMA;NK Builds MCO,Suspends DEN-LAX,FLL-JAX/MCI/GSO/AVL,Adds PHX-SEA;UA Adds DEN-HOB

Sun Aug 04, 2019 10:43 pm

hiflyeras wrote:
Lots of adds by AS...interesting as their new airframe deliveries are now totally dependant on the MAX getting back in the air. They were supposed to have three by year-end. If this doesn't happen by November I wonder if we'll see this stick?

I'm sorry, I have not kept track carefully, but is AS to receive new EMJs this year or early next? I'm particularly watching EMJ adds and wondering if they are 'safe' more-or-less?

As I mentioned in a previous post in this thread, in SAN there are a number of a/c swaps showing for Nov 5. And yes, I know the Nov 5 schedule is still 3 months out so we are seeing sort of "draft" version of the skeds but still, changes have finally appeared so...

Thanks in advance for your input S, it's always valuable and welcomed.

bb
 
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SANFan
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Re: OAG Changes 8/5/2019:AC Drops OMA;NK Builds MCO,Suspends DEN-LAX,FLL-JAX/MCI/GSO/AVL,Adds PHX-SEA;UA Adds DEN-HOB

Sun Aug 04, 2019 11:00 pm

A couple of quick notes re: SEA-PHX o n NK. First, unless I haven't been paying attention, I don't recall seeing an announcement of this new route. Anybody? (Perhaps it will released this week and Enilria just beat them to it; wouldn't be the first time!)

Checking the sked on NK.com, it appears the plane will depart PHX at 7am, fly to SEA, turn and fly right back to PHX, arriving in Arizona ~2pm. I'm not yet familiar enough with the PHX skeds to know if there might be something else added to finish out the day of flying but this certainly strikes me as an intentional use of prime a/c time and not just a lousy "fly-it-instead-of-RONing-it" trip.

A perhaps related question: has F9 added SEA to its new line-up of PHX routes yet?

Interesting to follow this one....

bb
 
Q
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Re: OAG Changes 8/5/2019:AC Drops OMA;NK Builds MCO,Suspends DEN-LAX,FLL-JAX/MCI/GSO/AVL,Adds PHX-SEA;UA Adds DEN-HOB

Sun Aug 04, 2019 11:30 pm

Why can't you change the format line? It's hard to understand or read too many numbers ,>,>,[6] etc.....

Can't you change from old to new?

Example:

NK AVL-FLL DISC NOV (discontiune Novermber)

UA DEN-HOB EFF NOV (new service Effective on November)

Example: AA ORD-MIA REDC 11 to 9 FLTS EFF JAN or UA ORD-MIA REDC 11>9 EFF JAN. (Effective January flight reduce weekly 11 to 9 times a week)

DL ATL-LGA INCR 10 to 13 EFF MAR (Effective March increase weekly from 10 to 13 flts).


It may be helpful understanding read faster and easier to reduce your strain eyes.


Thank you for your hard work.

Q
 
OB1504
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Re: OAG Changes 8/5/2019:AC Drops OMA;NK Builds MCO,Suspends DEN-LAX,FLL-JAX/MCI/GSO/AVL,Adds PHX-SEA;UA Adds DEN-HOB

Sun Aug 04, 2019 11:53 pm

Q wrote:
Why can't you change the format line? It's hard to understand or read too many numbers ,>,>,[6] etc.....

Can't you change from old to new?

Example:

NK AVL-FLL DISC NOV (discontiune Novermber)

UA DEN-HOB EFF NOV (new service Effective on November)

Example: AA ORD-MIA REDC 11 to 9 FLTS EFF JAN or UA ORD-MIA REDC 11>9 EFF JAN. (Effective January flight reduce weekly 11 to 9 times a week)

DL ATL-LGA INCR 10 to 13 EFF MAR (Effective March increase weekly from 10 to 13 flts).


It may be helpful understanding read faster and easier to reduce your strain eyes.


Thank you for your hard work.

Q


It’s been like this for a while now and the rest of us manage to make do. Remember that this is something the OP does for free and is under no obligation to provide.
 
Sightseer
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Re: OAG Changes 8/5/2019:AC Drops OMA;NK Builds MCO,Suspends DEN-LAX,FLL-JAX/MCI/GSO/AVL,Adds PHX-SEA;UA Adds DEN-HOB

Mon Aug 05, 2019 1:52 am

Thanks Enilria!

Q wrote:
Why can't you change the format line? It's hard to understand or read too many numbers ,>,>,[6] etc.....

Can't you change from old to new?

Example:

NK AVL-FLL DISC NOV (discontiune Novermber)

UA DEN-HOB EFF NOV (new service Effective on November)

Example: AA ORD-MIA REDC 11 to 9 FLTS EFF JAN or UA ORD-MIA REDC 11>9 EFF JAN. (Effective January flight reduce weekly 11 to 9 times a week)

DL ATL-LGA INCR 10 to 13 EFF MAR (Effective March increase weekly from 10 to 13 flts).


It may be helpful understanding read faster and easier to reduce your strain eyes.


Thank you for your hard work.

Q

Personally, I find the current presentation to be pretty efficient and informative. It lists each month for which there is a change and says how that change compares to the same month in the prior year. To each their own, but to me the layout you proposed - in it's current form, at least - conveys less information and takes more space.

Sorry if I sound harsh, I'm not intending to. If you're new to these OAG threads I think they'll get easier to read with time.
 
n7371f
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Re: OAG Changes 8/5/2019:AC Drops OMA;NK Builds MCO,Suspends DEN-LAX,FLL-JAX/MCI/GSO/AVL,Adds PHX-SEA;UA Adds DEN-HOB

Mon Aug 05, 2019 3:06 am

Good catch. And for anyone wondering what AS sees in the 321NEO, here's a little bite to take. The 321NEO clobbers the 739 on performance for the cross country routes AS runs from DCA.

EA CO AS wrote:
One interesting note that isn't reflected in the fall schedule is that on 11/5, DCA becomes an all-A321neo station for AS.
 
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enilria
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Re: OAG Changes 8/5/2019:AC Drops OMA;NK Builds MCO,Suspends DEN-LAX,FLL-JAX/MCI/GSO/AVL,Adds PHX-SEA;UA Adds DEN-HOB

Mon Aug 05, 2019 1:04 pm

Q wrote:
Why can't you change the format line? It's hard to understand or read too many numbers ,>,>,[6] etc.....

Can't you change from old to new?

Example:

NK AVL-FLL DISC NOV (discontiune Novermber)

UA DEN-HOB EFF NOV (new service Effective on November)

Example: AA ORD-MIA REDC 11 to 9 FLTS EFF JAN or UA ORD-MIA REDC 11>9 EFF JAN. (Effective January flight reduce weekly 11 to 9 times a week)

DL ATL-LGA INCR 10 to 13 EFF MAR (Effective March increase weekly from 10 to 13 flts).


It may be helpful understanding read faster and easier to reduce your strain eyes.


Thank you for your hard work.

Q

Very few of the routes are added or discontinued, most are changed. This is what you are proposing:

BEFORE:
AA DFW-EGE OCT 0.5>0[0] NOV 1>0[0] DEC 1>0.5[1] JAN 1>0[1] FEB 1>0[1] MAR 1>0.5[1] APR 1>0[0]

AFTER:
AA DFW-EGE DISC OCT
AA DFW-EGE DISC NOV
AA DFW-EGE REDC DEC 1 to 0.5 flts
AA DFW-EGE DISC JAN
AA DFW-EGE DISC FEB
AA DFW-EGE REDC MAR 1 to 0.5 flts
AA DFW-EGE DISC APR

This report would be 4 or 5x longer with your goal being to "read faster", plus you would get rid of the prior year compare which people complained about for probably 8 years before I added it? While you might be happier, I think the other 95% would pillory me. Rather than I get attacked for adopting your idea, make your own better mousetrap yourself, see if people like it better, and if they do I will happily cease doing mine. It's a lot of work.
 
TW787
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Re: OAG Changes 8/5/2019:AC Drops OMA;NK Builds MCO,Suspends DEN-LAX,FLL-JAX/MCI/GSO/AVL,Adds PHX-SEA;UA Adds DEN-HOB

Mon Aug 05, 2019 1:26 pm

red66mustang wrote:

NK's new VP of Network was the VP at AS before he got sacked in the layoffs last fall. I have to wonder if this route is based on knowledge gained on the market at AS.


Let's get the facts straight here. Was the VP of NK previously at AS? Yes. Was he fired? No. AS network planning has had rapid turnover in the past year or so. I'm told it is an abnormally high stress environment and they are blamed for all AS's issues and people are leaving because of it. They have gone through the VP as well as 3 directors in that period. I also heard they couldn't get anyone qualified for the VP opening because of this so they put in some internal guy with no network experience. That should go well.
 
Cubsrule
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Re: OAG Changes 8/5/2019:AC Drops OMA;NK Builds MCO,Suspends DEN-LAX,FLL-JAX/MCI/GSO/AVL,Adds PHX-SEA;UA Adds DEN-HOB

Mon Aug 05, 2019 1:39 pm

enilria wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
enilria wrote:
Ok, so not certain. Just tea leaf reading?


I think some things have changed with the transition of Air Georgian aircraft from to Chorus/Jazz but can’t find any announcement. The CRJs originally were to transition to Jazz by the end of 2019 but in the January timetable I see Air Georgian flights to virtually all current cities (the exceptions are CLT, BNA, and RDU, which see upgrades to 76-seat equipment). I can’t help with the current plan.

I saw some other CRJs on the transborder schedule for next Summer. I'll keep an eye on it.


You might take a look backwards at your data pulls if you save them. I can tell you that the BNA changes (pulling 50-seaters, reducing frequency, adding CR9s) were loaded fairly shortly after the announcement in Janaury, and I feel like the CLT and RDU changes were loaded around the same time. I'm not sure whether those cities saw frequency changes loaded at the same time as their equipment changes. I don't think any other Air Georgian cities saw changes loaded that were then rescinded but I'm not certain.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
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enilria
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Re: OAG Changes 8/5/2019:AC Drops OMA;NK Builds MCO,Suspends DEN-LAX,FLL-JAX/MCI/GSO/AVL,Adds PHX-SEA;UA Adds DEN-HOB

Mon Aug 05, 2019 2:26 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
enilria wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:

I think some things have changed with the transition of Air Georgian aircraft from to Chorus/Jazz but can’t find any announcement. The CRJs originally were to transition to Jazz by the end of 2019 but in the January timetable I see Air Georgian flights to virtually all current cities (the exceptions are CLT, BNA, and RDU, which see upgrades to 76-seat equipment). I can’t help with the current plan.

I saw some other CRJs on the transborder schedule for next Summer. I'll keep an eye on it.


You might take a look backwards at your data pulls if you save them. I can tell you that the BNA changes (pulling 50-seaters, reducing frequency, adding CR9s) were loaded fairly shortly after the announcement in Janaury, and I feel like the CLT and RDU changes were loaded around the same time. I'm not sure whether those cities saw frequency changes loaded at the same time as their equipment changes. I don't think any other Air Georgian cities saw changes loaded that were then rescinded but I'm not certain.

All of these have CRJ eqp loaded for June 2020. Of course, a schedule that far in advance means little, but that's why I was interested in your comments which implies this is all changing dramatically. Certainly none of those changes are published.

BOS YOW
BWI YUL
CLE YYZ
CMH YYZ
CVG YYZ
DCA YOW
DCA YUL
DTW YYZ
EWR YOW
IAD YUL
IND YYZ
MCI YYZ
MKE YYZ
PHL YUL
PIT YUL
PIT YYZ
PVD YYZ
RDU YUL
SAV YYZ
STL YYZ
 
hiflyeras
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Re: OAG Changes 8/5/2019:AC Drops OMA;NK Builds MCO,Suspends DEN-LAX,FLL-JAX/MCI/GSO/AVL,Adds PHX-SEA;UA Adds DEN-HOB

Mon Aug 05, 2019 2:43 pm

SANFan wrote:
I'm sorry, I have not kept track carefully, but is AS to receive new EMJs this year or early next? I'm particularly watching EMJ adds and wondering if they are 'safe' more-or-less?

bb


Good point, my friend! Maybe this increased flying is being funded by deliveries of E175's to QX (or farmed out to OO) to shift mainline jets to new transcon flying? I do worry about next year though...I think it was three MAX deliveries in 2019 and nine more in 2020.
 
drdisque
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Re: OAG Changes 8/5/2019:AC Drops OMA;NK Builds MCO,Suspends DEN-LAX,FLL-JAX/MCI/GSO/AVL,Adds PHX-SEA;UA Adds DEN-HOB

Mon Aug 05, 2019 3:05 pm

ORD-ONT (operated by 737-800) and ORD-SRQ (operated by E-175) appear to both be Thanksgiving-time utilization flying.

ORD-ONT is a late evening departure from ORD turning back into a Redeye back from ONT. (this schedule Eastbound is at least a good alternative to WN who only offers an asscrack early departure from ONT)

ORD-SRQ is a pretty normal mid-day timing with a 0930 departure from ORD and 1352 departure from SRQ. I can potentially see ORD-SRQ getting extended, but I think that's unlikely for ONT.
 
Cubsrule
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Re: OAG Changes 8/5/2019:AC Drops OMA;NK Builds MCO,Suspends DEN-LAX,FLL-JAX/MCI/GSO/AVL,Adds PHX-SEA;UA Adds DEN-HOB

Mon Aug 05, 2019 3:09 pm

enilria wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
enilria wrote:
I saw some other CRJs on the transborder schedule for next Summer. I'll keep an eye on it.


You might take a look backwards at your data pulls if you save them. I can tell you that the BNA changes (pulling 50-seaters, reducing frequency, adding CR9s) were loaded fairly shortly after the announcement in Janaury, and I feel like the CLT and RDU changes were loaded around the same time. I'm not sure whether those cities saw frequency changes loaded at the same time as their equipment changes. I don't think any other Air Georgian cities saw changes loaded that were then rescinded but I'm not certain.

All of these have CRJ eqp loaded for June 2020. Of course, a schedule that far in advance means little, but that's why I was interested in your comments which implies this is all changing dramatically. Certainly none of those changes are published.

BOS YOW
BWI YUL
CLE YYZ
CMH YYZ
CVG YYZ
DCA YOW
DCA YUL
DTW YYZ
EWR YOW
IAD YUL
IND YYZ
MCI YYZ
MKE YYZ
PHL YUL
PIT YUL
PIT YYZ
PVD YYZ
RDU YUL
SAV YYZ
STL YYZ


I wouldn't expect any transition-related changes to the YOW and YUL flying, which Air Georgian has never done. To me the more interesting question will be operating carriers. The current state of affairs suggests only a slowdown in transition of Air Georgian's jet fleet to Jazz. If we start seeing 50-seaters operated by Jazz on the YYZ routes, that will suggest that some of those will not, in fact, see upgrades. But so far, that has not happened AFAIK.
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SANFan
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Re: OAG Changes 8/5/2019:AC Drops OMA;NK Builds MCO,Suspends DEN-LAX,FLL-JAX/MCI/GSO/AVL,Adds PHX-SEA;UA Adds DEN-HOB

Mon Aug 05, 2019 4:54 pm

hiflyeras wrote:
SANFan wrote:
I'm sorry, I have not kept track carefully, but is AS to receive new EMJs this year or early next? I'm particularly watching EMJ adds and wondering if they are 'safe' more-or-less?
bb

Good point, my friend! Maybe this increased flying is being funded by deliveries of E175's to QX (or farmed out to OO) to shift mainline jets to new transcon flying? I do worry about next year though...I think it was three MAX deliveries in 2019 and nine more in 2020.

Yesterday I completed a turn schedule for SAN with the Nov 5 data released over the weekend. It's obvious the schedules are only a draft because there are mismatches and turns that don't balance but that being said, a few things are noticeable.

There are a lot of new EMJ flights present -- I see them flying routes from SAN to SEA, PDX and SFO, all of which have typically been flown (primarily) on mainline equipment -- plus all SMF flights are again all on EMJs rather than the current (summer) mix that includes mainline equipment. (But they are keeping 4 daily r/t in the market instead of the 3 flown last year.) There are also shifts of AirBi to Boeings and v.v. but that's nothing new.

All of these changes could just be normal capacity shifts for the winter season or it appears they could be related to MAX issues (read: fleet uncertainty.) Unfortunately, SAN-BOS still shows as a 'Bus for the winter skeds which troubles some of us due to expected fuel stops on the w/b flights. (Our other transcons are all flown with Boeings on the Nov skeds -- as of now.) I have not yet looked at other cities' transcon markets to see how many 'Buses are still flying this winter but last time I looked, there were few and they were, of course, summer skeds which don't normally have the fuel-stop issues.

One last note: AS's MAX9 inaugural flights are still listed very optimistically as effective Nov 5 between SEA and SAN/LAX. I'm sure they will be removed any day now as the MAX returns seem to be moving sadly toward 2020...

bb
 
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enilria
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Re: OAG Changes 8/5/2019:AC Drops OMA;NK Builds MCO,Suspends DEN-LAX,FLL-JAX/MCI/GSO/AVL,Adds PHX-SEA;UA Adds DEN-HOB

Mon Aug 05, 2019 5:27 pm

SANFan wrote:
I'm sure they will be removed any day now as the MAX returns seem to be moving sadly toward 2020...

bb

I think we are deep in 2020 already. What I heard most recently is that the FAA won't do anything until the EU certifies the plane as safe to provide political cover. Figure out when that will happen and you might know the answer. My guess is that the EU has deferred on a lot of this to the FAA so being in the driver's seat means they will go REALLY slowly. I'm saying May 2020 now. From the grounding until 4 weeks ago I thought December 2019, but now I realize I was way optimistic.
 
727LOVER
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Re: OAG Changes 8/5/2019:AC Drops OMA;NK Builds MCO,Suspends DEN-LAX,FLL-JAX/MCI/GSO/AVL,Adds PHX-SEA;UA Adds DEN-HOB

Mon Aug 05, 2019 6:13 pm

drdisque wrote:
ORD-ONT (operated by 737-800) and ORD-SRQ (operated by E-175) appear to both be Thanksgiving-time utilization flying.

ORD-ONT is a late evening departure from ORD turning back into a Redeye back from ONT. (this schedule Eastbound is at least a good alternative to WN who only offers an asscrack early departure from ONT)

ORD-SRQ is a pretty normal mid-day timing with a 0930 departure from ORD and 1352 departure from SRQ. I can potentially see ORD-SRQ getting extended, but I think that's unlikely for ONT.


ORD-SRQ is scheduled to be back in mid-December.

This starts Nov 4...that's a lot of Thanksgiving flying. Are Dec schedules yet finalized??
"We must accept finite disappointment, but never lose infinite hope." - Martin Luther King, Jr.
 
tphuang
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Re: OAG Changes 8/5/2019:AC Drops OMA;NK Builds MCO,Suspends DEN-LAX,FLL-JAX/MCI/GSO/AVL,Adds PHX-SEA;UA Adds DEN-HOB

Mon Aug 05, 2019 6:23 pm

enilria wrote:
Runway28L wrote:
With NK building up MCO, perhaps they are not only trying to compete against WN, but also getting ahead of B6? Terminal C will open in a few years and JetBlue is supposed to be the largest tenant IINM. I wonder how NK could affect any long-term expansion planned by B6.

NK keeps talking about grabbing real estate. I wouldn't be surprised at all if this had more to do with grabbing future gates in MCO and less with current economics.


Is the expanded MCO really short on real estate though? And NK doesn't seem to be the type of airline who success is dependent on how many gate it has. Even with B6, the whole thing about needing to wait for terminal C to open is an excuse. They just don't have the resources to expand at MCO at the moment. I do agree that any major expansion by NK will make things tougher for a future B6 expansion there. Although I don't know when that would be, since they are obviously occupied with BOS for 2020, TATL for 2021 to 2024. They haven't finished building up FLL yet and I don't see room to expand at both FLL & MCO as a secondary focus from 2020 to 2024.
 
Justapax
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Re: OAG Changes 8/5/2019:AC Drops OMA;NK Builds MCO,Suspends DEN-LAX,FLL-JAX/MCI/GSO/AVL,Adds PHX-SEA;UA Adds DEN-HOB

Tue Aug 06, 2019 1:43 am

enilria wrote:
Q wrote:

....see if people like it better, and if they do I will happily cease doing mine. It's a lot of work.


I want to add my thanks for all of the work you put into this report every week. Please don't stop.
 
kabq737
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Re: OAG Changes 8/5/2019:AC Drops OMA;NK Builds MCO,Suspends DEN-LAX,FLL-JAX/MCI/GSO/AVL,Adds PHX-SEA;UA Adds DEN-HOB

Tue Aug 06, 2019 2:34 am

HOB makes perfect sense.

There is a small oil boom going on in Eastern New Mexico right now. Suddenly small New Mexican towns are being filled to the brim with high dollar oil travelers. It’ll be interesting to see how long this lasts.
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FlyHossD
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Re: OAG Changes 8/5/2019:AC Drops OMA;NK Builds MCO,Suspends DEN-LAX,FLL-JAX/MCI/GSO/AVL,Adds PHX-SEA;UA Adds DEN-HOB

Tue Aug 06, 2019 4:29 am

enilria wrote:
I think we are deep in 2020 already. What I heard most recently is that the FAA won't do anything until the EU certifies the plane as safe to provide political cover. Figure out when that will happen and you might know the answer. My guess is that the EU has deferred on a lot of this to the FAA so being in the driver's seat means they will go REALLY slowly. I'm saying May 2020 now. From the grounding until 4 weeks ago I thought December 2019, but now I realize I was way optimistic.


You may be right, of course, but in speaking with a Fleet Manager at a 737 operator recently, he stated that he expected the 737Max to return in December 2019 or January 2020. I'm just relieved that I'm not trying to do his job.
My statements do not represent my former employer or my current employer and are my opinions only.
 
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enilria
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Re: OAG Changes 8/5/2019:AC Drops OMA;NK Builds MCO,Suspends DEN-LAX,FLL-JAX/MCI/GSO/AVL,Adds PHX-SEA;UA Adds DEN-HOB

Tue Aug 06, 2019 1:03 pm

tphuang wrote:
enilria wrote:
Runway28L wrote:
With NK building up MCO, perhaps they are not only trying to compete against WN, but also getting ahead of B6? Terminal C will open in a few years and JetBlue is supposed to be the largest tenant IINM. I wonder how NK could affect any long-term expansion planned by B6.

NK keeps talking about grabbing real estate. I wouldn't be surprised at all if this had more to do with grabbing future gates in MCO and less with current economics.


Is the expanded MCO really short on real estate though? And NK doesn't seem to be the type of airline who success is dependent on how many gate it has. Even with B6, the whole thing about needing to wait for terminal C to open is an excuse. They just don't have the resources to expand at MCO at the moment. I do agree that any major expansion by NK will make things tougher for a future B6 expansion there. Although I don't know when that would be, since they are obviously occupied with BOS for 2020, TATL for 2021 to 2024. They haven't finished building up FLL yet and I don't see room to expand at both FLL & MCO as a secondary focus from 2020 to 2024.

As I understand it there is a litmus test as to how many gates you get in the new building and that consists of 1) willingness to sign an expensive lease and 2) a service level that you must meet now. I suspect #2 is what is driving this. I do not believe there will be any unleased gates in the new building, but I'm sure there would be common use. I wouldn't be surprised if muscling B6 out of gates is exactly what NK is attempting. They feel like the opposite happened in FLL and they may be returning the favor.
Justapax wrote:
enilria wrote:
Q wrote:

....see if people like it better, and if they do I will happily cease doing mine. It's a lot of work.


I want to add my thanks for all of the work you put into this report every week. Please don't stop.

Appreciated
FlyHossD wrote:
enilria wrote:
I think we are deep in 2020 already. What I heard most recently is that the FAA won't do anything until the EU certifies the plane as safe to provide political cover. Figure out when that will happen and you might know the answer. My guess is that the EU has deferred on a lot of this to the FAA so being in the driver's seat means they will go REALLY slowly. I'm saying May 2020 now. From the grounding until 4 weeks ago I thought December 2019, but now I realize I was way optimistic.


You may be right, of course, but in speaking with a Fleet Manager at a 737 operator recently, he stated that he expected the 737Max to return in December 2019 or January 2020. I'm just relieved that I'm not trying to do his job.

That is where I was, but I know AeroMexico is now planning on May 2020. I don't know who else is doing that. There's also the factor that airlines peak out on flying in Summer. That's when the pressure is greatest. Also, if I am right about the planes being in service for Summer (Memorial Day), they will probably need 60 days to get them flyable at this point. Plus, pilots need training...and they need time to sell tickets because I'm not sure airlines are going to just keep advancing their schedules. I don't believe that WN closed EWR because of the MAX, but that did create a few airplanes that they won't use to add other things until the MAX is figured out. That's an example.
 
snowzilla
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Re: OAG Changes 8/5/2019:AC Drops OMA;NK Builds MCO,Suspends DEN-LAX,FLL-JAX/MCI/GSO/AVL,Adds PHX-SEA;UA Adds DEN-HOB

Tue Aug 06, 2019 2:49 pm

SANFan wrote:



One last note: AS's MAX9 inaugural flights are still listed very optimistically as effective Nov 5 between SEA and SAN/LAX. I'm sure they will be removed any day now as the MAX returns seem to be moving sadly toward 2020...

bb


I think they've been officially moved to Jan 2020
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: OAG Changes 8/5/2019:AC Drops OMA;NK Builds MCO,Suspends DEN-LAX,FLL-JAX/MCI/GSO/AVL,Adds PHX-SEA;UA Adds DEN-HOB

Tue Aug 06, 2019 3:08 pm

enilria wrote:
DL DTW-SJC NOV 0.6>1.0[0.4] DEC 0.7>1.0[0.8] JAN 0.7>1.3[0.7] FEB 0.7>1.4[0.7] MAR 0.7>1.4[0.7] APR 0.9>1.4[0.7] MAY 0.8>1.5[0.7]

This route just was started (resumed) in November 2018 and now appears to be twice daily on some weekdays.
They have added an evening westbound, red-eye eastbound flight with a 739 on weekdays in addition to the daily 739 on the morning westbound/afternoon eastbound.

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