A380MSN004
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LCY / Hard Brexit consequences

Sun Aug 04, 2019 3:06 pm

Hi everyone,

We already noticed since Boris Johnson became prime minister the pound getting weaker.

Apparently numerous London based companies are preparing themsleves of a Hard Brexit scenario.

Do you guys think, in case of Hard Brexit the very High fees of LCY + the activity of this airport afected by a hard Brexit scenario ?
 
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enilria
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Re: LCY / Hard Brexit consequences

Sun Aug 04, 2019 3:20 pm

A380MSN004 wrote:
Hi everyone,

We already noticed since Boris Johnson became prime minister the pound getting weaker.

Apparently numerous London based companies are preparing themsleves of a Hard Brexit scenario.

Do you guys think, in case of Hard Brexit the very High fees of LCY + the activity of this airport afected by a hard Brexit scenario ?

I expect no disruption to air travel from BREXIT. IMHO, it would flip and things will change slowly afterward.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: LCY / Hard Brexit consequences

Sun Aug 04, 2019 3:28 pm

If travel to/from UK to Europe drops, that means the EU is taking a huge GNP hit. The UK has a trade deficit with the EU.

I hope sounder minds realize a punitive Brexit hurts Germany and South Europe harder than the UK.

There might be a short term drop, but not for long. As the UK is a huge feed for AMS, shouldn't we worry about that airport first?

Lightsaber
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
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Aisak
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Re: LCY / Hard Brexit consequences

Sun Aug 04, 2019 3:49 pm

Since most passengers at LCY fly for business reasons there should be a minimum impact. UE has already passed a law stating that the common Biz&fun 90day visa-free stays rule will be in force since day one if no other agreement is reached.
There will be more resources needed at UK border and customs if the UK changes its ruling about treatment of EU nationals at the border and EU inbound goods on the “will-there-still-be?” blue customs channel.
LCY is also not regarded as a hub for any airline so the flow of passengers between LCY and the “new EU27” will likely maintain the same levels
 
art
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Re: LCY / Hard Brexit consequences

Sun Aug 04, 2019 4:03 pm

lightsaber wrote:
If travel to/from UK to Europe drops, that means the EU is taking a huge GNP hit. The UK has a trade deficit with the EU.

I hope sounder minds realize a punitive Brexit hurts Germany and South Europe harder than the UK.

Lightsaber


I live in the UK. Was thinking of moving to France before UK electors voted to leave the EU.

I do not think that the EU leadership see the possible departure of the UK primarily in economic terms. I think the EU leadership looks first towards closer and closer political integration of its members. Departure of the UK without considerable economic loss to the UK would encourage some other EU countries to consider leaving as well. I think that the EU leadership would rather see the EU suffer economically than give any encouragement to any other members to leave.

When the UK formally gave notice of its intention to leave the EU, the EU could have started trade negotiations but refused. Had they agreed to starting trade negotiations with the UK, the looming economic damage to their members and the UK could have easily lbeen avoided.

That's politics, folks| No idea what effect politics will have on LCY.
 
KlimaBXsst
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Re: LCY / Hard Brexit consequences

Sun Aug 04, 2019 4:41 pm

Anything the UK does to distance itself from the rest of the EU makes me more encouraged to visit Britain now more than ever.

Hopefully I will make it out to LCY as well. UK could soon become the next Hawaii for American’s, Canadian’s and Mexican’s ... minus the weather.
Aesthetically the A 340 got it right!
 
MIflyer12
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Re: LCY / Hard Brexit consequences

Sun Aug 04, 2019 4:53 pm

KlimaBXsst wrote:
Anything the UK does to distance itself from the rest of the EU makes me more encouraged to visit Britain now more than ever.

Hopefully I will make it out to LCY as well. UK could soon become the next Hawaii for American’s, Canadian’s and Mexican’s ... minus the weather.


That's like asking visitors to Orlando from South Dakota to make more visits if travelers from New York state stopped going. Eight of the ten countries of origin for foreign travelers to the U.K. in 2017 were in the EU. Canada didn't even crack the top ten.
 
lhrnue
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Re: LCY / Hard Brexit consequences

Sun Aug 04, 2019 5:26 pm

Air traffic agreements even for "hard" Brexit are already agreed between the EU and UK.
 
Jetty
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Re: LCY / Hard Brexit consequences

Sun Aug 04, 2019 5:36 pm

lightsaber wrote:
There might be a short term drop, but not for long. As the UK is a huge feed for AMS, shouldn't we worry about that airport first?

AMS has more demand than capacity both in terms of slots and passengers; any void left by UK traffic will be filled by other destinations. Also Amsterdam is one of the popular locations for companies currently located in the UK in need of an EU presence and there will be more of these when a hard Brexit happens. AMS will be fine.
 
AIR MALTA
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Re: LCY / Hard Brexit consequences

Sun Aug 04, 2019 6:37 pm

art wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
If travel to/from UK to Europe drops, that means the EU is taking a huge GNP hit. The UK has a trade deficit with the EU.

I hope sounder minds realize a punitive Brexit hurts Germany and South Europe harder than the UK.

Lightsaber


I live in the UK. Was thinking of moving to France before UK electors voted to leave the EU.

I do not think that the EU leadership see the possible departure of the UK primarily in economic terms. I think the EU leadership looks first towards closer and closer political integration of its members. Departure of the UK without considerable economic loss to the UK would encourage some other EU countries to consider leaving as well. I think that the EU leadership would rather see the EU suffer economically than give any encouragement to any other members to leave.

When the UK formally gave notice of its intention to leave the EU, the EU could have started trade negotiations but refused. Had they agreed to starting trade negotiations with the UK, the looming economic damage to their members and the UK could have easily lbeen avoided.

That's politics, folks| No idea what effect politics will have on LCY.

Here we go again. Poor little UK, being punished by the bad EU. The UK created and shaped the single market as well as the EU rules. They must have known how the EU works before leaving. But with their arrogance and laziness (not a plan on how to manage an exit from the EU), they put red lines (no SM and customs union). Sorry to say but, the UK is not better than all EU states and those of the EEA.
Next flights : BRU-ZRH-CAI (LX)/ BRU-FCO-TLV (AZ)
 
KlimaBXsst
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Re: LCY / Hard Brexit consequences

Sun Aug 04, 2019 6:45 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
... Eight of the ten countries of origin for foreign travelers to the U.K. in 2017 were in the EU.


Yes a lot more people visit New York from New Jersey simply because of the proximity. The Chunnel will never really isolate UK from Continental Europe.


MIflyer12 wrote:
... Canada didn't even crack the top ten.


Yes Canada is on a whole other American Continent much like Mexico and the USA is.

Hard to compare proximity of the Eurasian Continent to the UK with the North American Continent to the UK.

Guess if we want to compare L1011s to DC10s, 767s to A310s, Tu154 to Tridents, or BAC 111’s to VC10’s these comparisons might work, but comparing proximity of continents to the UK is just daft.

UK Heritage is far more tied to North American Heritage than it is to Continental Europe.
Aesthetically the A 340 got it right!
 
kdeg00
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Re: LCY / Hard Brexit consequences

Sun Aug 04, 2019 6:57 pm

someone forgetting that the royal family are effectively germans...

UK Heritage is far more tied to North American Heritage than it is to Continental Europe.
 
DarthLobster
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Re: LCY / Hard Brexit consequences

Sun Aug 04, 2019 7:19 pm

KlimaBXsst wrote:
UK could soon become the next Hawaii for American’s, Canadian’s and Mexican’s ... minus the weather.


Well we all know how raucous those Cardiff luaus are...
 
KlimaBXsst
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Re: LCY / Hard Brexit consequences

Sun Aug 04, 2019 7:37 pm

Just hoping here one day to be able to set out like Penelope Keith for a quick Bacardi and Coke at the only pub in Llanddewi Brefi.
Aesthetically the A 340 got it right!
 
skipness1E
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Re: LCY / Hard Brexit consequences

Sun Aug 04, 2019 7:56 pm

kdeg00 wrote:
someone forgetting that the royal family are effectively germans...

UK Heritage is far more tied to North American Heritage than it is to Continental Europe.

How long does someone have to be living in a country before people stop saying things like this? Is Leo Varadkar “effectively Indian”? No, of course not.
 
KlimaBXsst
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Re: LCY / Hard Brexit consequences

Sun Aug 04, 2019 9:09 pm

skipness1E wrote:
kdeg00 wrote:
someone forgetting that the royal family are effectively germans...

UK Heritage is far more tied to North American Heritage than it is to Continental Europe.



How long does someone have to be living in a country before people stop saying things like this? Is Leo Varadkar “effectively Indian”? No, of course not.


It’s frightfully horrible about our lost Corgi’s, and really; do we need to bring up our Hawker Siddeley Tridents again.

The dining car train has no divider between the sections should we have one? Of course not, as there would never be any entertainment or a story to tell.

There are far cheekier ways to handle things, across a world where the sun never sets, and we all do our part in the noble name and cause of Empire .....even in the holler! (;
Aesthetically the A 340 got it right!
 
Stickpusher
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Re: LCY / Hard Brexit consequences

Sun Aug 04, 2019 9:52 pm

lightsaber wrote:
If travel to/from UK to Europe drops, that means the EU is taking a huge GNP hit. The UK has a trade deficit with the EU.

I hope sounder minds realize a punitive Brexit hurts Germany and South Europe harder than the UK.

Lightsaber


The UK's trade deficit with the EU has doubled since the referendum, but looks more of a factor than it actually is. From the figures it's evident that this is because British exports to the EU have fallen a lot more than their imports, exports down by something like 20% (EU buying fewer British goods & services) while British imports from the EU are down by a far smaller percentage. This is artificially inflating Britain's importance as a trade partner buying from EU at the moment, the overall trading picture with the EU isn't much changed apart from the fact that Britain is exporting less. The current figure seems to be evidence that the EU is reducing its exposure to Brexit while the UK isn't. From a UK perspective imports and exports are down, its just that the exports have fallen by a greater percentage and skewed the deficit, making it look as though Britain buys more than it actually does - the UK is actually buying less, it just happens to be selling a lot less!

It won't be painless for the EU27, but they're reducing their exposure and Britain is already feeling the effects.

art wrote:
Departure of the UK without considerable economic loss to the UK would encourage some other EU countries to consider leaving as well. I think that the EU leadership would rather see the EU suffer economically than give any encouragement to any other members to leave.

When the UK formally gave notice of its intention to leave the EU, the EU could have started trade negotiations but refused. Had they agreed to starting trade negotiations with the UK, the looming economic damage to their members and the UK could have easily lbeen avoided.


The EU "refused" to start trade negotiations because there are rules in place to prevent the economic chaos that would result if countries just decided to cut their own deals all over the place. The EU does macro trade deals all over the world helped by its bloc-wide economic clout (it has a domestic market slightly larger than that of the USA - traders want to sell into that market, consumers are a commodity). Individual members can make bilaterals provided they don't undermine the wider base deal cut by the EU. What the UK would want is to cut a new base deal with a body that forbids such an action by law, and to make things worse cut the deal with itself still as a member state. It's not the EU being truculent, it's just abiding by the rules agreed by all the member states, including the UK.

The EU, as you rightly say, won't do anything to make the process any easier, especially at what is a delicate moment across the continent. The 2015 migrant crisis that did so much to stoke nationalist sentiment has created instability that the EU needs to ride out (the most risky election cycle for nationalist sentiment has - theoretically - now passed), if that instability leads other members to consider departing it would be problematic, so it's even more crucial at this moment in history to support unity by making the benefits of unity more obvious than perhaps they have been.

It's a major priority for the EU since it is at heart a peace project.
 
Arion640
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Re: LCY / Hard Brexit consequences

Sun Aug 04, 2019 10:26 pm

kdeg00 wrote:
someone forgetting that the royal family are effectively germans...

UK Heritage is far more tied to North American Heritage than it is to Continental Europe.


And by that logic, no one in America is actually American except the Native Indians.
No bumps. No bangs - Concorde
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: LCY / Hard Brexit consequences

Sun Aug 04, 2019 11:26 pm

art wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
If travel to/from UK to Europe drops, that means the EU is taking a huge GNP hit. The UK has a trade deficit with the EU.

I hope sounder minds realize a punitive Brexit hurts Germany and South Europe harder than the UK.

Lightsaber


I live in the UK. Was thinking of moving to France before UK electors voted to leave the EU.

I do not think that the EU leadership see the possible departure of the UK primarily in economic terms. I think the EU leadership looks first towards closer and closer political integration of its members. Departure of the UK without considerable economic loss to the UK would encourage some other EU countries to consider leaving as well. I think that the EU leadership would rather see the EU suffer economically than give any encouragement to any other members to leave.

When the UK formally gave notice of its intention to leave the EU, the EU could have started trade negotiations but refused. Had they agreed to starting trade negotiations with the UK, the looming economic damage to their members and the UK could have easily lbeen avoided.

That's politics, folks| No idea what effect politics will have on LCY.


The EU27 probably want the UK to have a deal with the USA first. What aviation effect would be with the USA though if there's a hard Brexit (to keep this on topic)? The EU27 know that a deal with the USA is going to be next to impossible because of American political forces.

Again, to keep this on topic, I would actually ask about BFS more so than LCY, as LCY still has domestic traffic.
 
AngMoh
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Re: LCY / Hard Brexit consequences

Mon Aug 05, 2019 12:01 am

lhrnue wrote:
Air traffic agreements even for "hard" Brexit are already agreed between the EU and UK.


Wrong

https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/pres ... arliament/

The EU has initiated temporary measure to reduce the impact of Brexit. This agreement is to buy time to come to an agreement and ends on 30 March 2020 or when a permanent agreement is in play. "It would apply until an air transport agreement with the UK enters into force or 30 March 2020, whichever is the sooner." So it will expire on 30 March 202 because all normal forms of contact seem to have broken down with the new government.

I think LCY will be hit hard as lots of companies will be leaving the City of London and many have already done so. I don't think air traffic arrangement will be the main cause.
727 732 733 734 735 73G 738 739 739ER 742 743 744 752 753 762 772 77E 773 77W 788 A300 A310 A319 A320 A321 A332 A333 A343 A345 A346 A359 A35K A388 DC-9 DC-10 MD11 MD81 MD82 MD87 F70 ERJ145 E170 E175 E190 E195 ATR72 Q400 CRJ200 CRJ700 CRJ900 BAE146 RJ85
 
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zkojq
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Re: LCY / Hard Brexit consequences

Mon Aug 05, 2019 5:00 am

With a lot of British firms setting up EU headquarters in FRA/PAR/AMS, there will be some extra demand between London and those cities. Will that be enough to offset softening demand caused by a recession? Probably not, but I won't pretend to be an expert on that.

lightsaber wrote:
If travel to/from UK to Europe drops, that means the EU is taking a huge GNP hit. The UK has a trade deficit with the EU.

And yet demand for UK exports to the EU has fallen far faster than that of EU exports to the UK... :roll:

lightsaber wrote:
I hope sounder minds realize a punitive Brexit hurts Germany and South Europe harder than the UK.

Anyone who's been paying more than a little attention to Brexit will have noted that the EU27 (and especially Germany) have not been willing to throw Ireland and the Good Friday Agreement under the bus inorder to appease the UK.
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YIMBY
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Re: LCY / Hard Brexit consequences

Mon Aug 05, 2019 5:08 am

lhrnue wrote:
Air traffic agreements even for "hard" Brexit are already agreed between the EU and UK.


No-deal means no deal: there are no agreements that have been signed and ratified by both parties. Other than the divorce agreement, they cannot even be formally agreed before UK is formally out. There are some rules to be followed, want or not.

Both parties have, however, made similar unilateral decisions to mitigate the damage, by non-formal agreements.

Current situation is that there will be no significant disruptions for the air traffic.
(See https://www.gov.uk/guidance/passenger-t ... ter-brexit)

That is, EU and UK citizens can cross the border with a valid passport or appropriate identity document without visa, for short time (90 days). UK going out of the customs union will change the customs procedure, i.e. there will be no blue EU line to pass, just normal red and green lines. You may expect tremendous queues. Given that the merchandise customs will be exhausted, there is a possibility that common travelers will smuggle common goods that are temporarily unavailable in the UK, and the UK customs officer may try to check and charge the duties.

It is very hard to predict what will happen: if relative prices go down, London may attract more tourists and LCY may even get more tourist traffic. It will not collapse, though the profits will decrease.
Moreover, all unilateral decisions can be unilaterally revoked, if either party starts a tit-for-tat contest.
 
FlyingElvii
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Re: LCY / Hard Brexit consequences

Mon Aug 05, 2019 5:54 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
KlimaBXsst wrote:
Anything the UK does to distance itself from the rest of the EU makes me more encouraged to visit Britain now more than ever.

Hopefully I will make it out to LCY as well. UK could soon become the next Hawaii for American’s, Canadian’s and Mexican’s ... minus the weather.


That's like asking visitors to Orlando from South Dakota to make more visits if travelers from New York state stopped going. Eight of the ten countries of origin for foreign travelers to the U.K. in 2017 were in the EU. Canada didn't even crack the top ten.

And they still will be...
They aren’t going for the warm beaches and great weather, they go for business. And business will still go on.
 
FlyingElvii
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Re: LCY / Hard Brexit consequences

Mon Aug 05, 2019 5:58 am

Arion640 wrote:
kdeg00 wrote:
someone forgetting that the royal family are effectively germans...
Who are actually
UK Heritage is far more tied to North American Heritage than it is to Continental Europe.


And by that logic, no one in America is actually American except the Native Indians.


Who are themselves from the Siberian Highlands
 
SCQ83
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Re: LCY / Hard Brexit consequences

Mon Aug 05, 2019 6:15 am

lightsaber wrote:
I hope sounder minds realize a punitive Brexit hurts Germany and South Europe harder than the UK.


You must be kidding:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... -warns-imf

In its annual health check for the euro area, the Washington-based fund said economic growth across the 27 remaining EU states would fall by as much as 1.5% by 2030, if Britain falls back on World Trade Organisation rules for its trading relationship with the EU after leaving next year.

While economic output for the UK would drop by more than twice that amount – wiping out almost 4% of GDP – Ireland would suffer by almost as much as a result of its strong ties to Britain and shared border.

The Netherlands, Denmark and Belgium, with similar close proximity and trading links, would also lose around 1% of GDP.
 
seansasLCY
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Re: LCY / Hard Brexit consequences

Mon Aug 05, 2019 9:20 am

Going back to the actual question about LCY...

It would seem that the airport is doing well despite the uncertainty. July 2019 was the busiest on record and according to LCY CAA data now shows that passengers are split evenly 50/50 between business and leisure. So I don't think it'll be the end of the world.

https://media.londoncityairport.com/its ... r_2PNfQsBs
 
Amiga500
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Re: LCY / Hard Brexit consequences

Mon Aug 05, 2019 9:33 am

lightsaber wrote:
I hope sounder minds realize a punitive Brexit hurts Germany and South Europe harder than the UK.


Eh - no no - that's completely wrong way to look at it.


In 2018 the EU accounted for 46% (£289 B) of UK exports and 54% (£353 B) of UK imports.

That is equivalent to 14% of the EUs imports and 18% of the EUs imports.


So while the UK does indeed have a trade deficit with the EU, if the borders completely closed and trade stopped then the EU only loses 14/18% of its markets, whereas the UK loses 46/54% of its markets!!

At that level of impact, the loss of the difference in exports to imports is irrelevant as the whole UK economy would more or less collapse anyway.
 
DublinPaul
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Re: LCY / Hard Brexit consequences

Mon Aug 05, 2019 9:37 am

lightsaber wrote:
" I hope sounder minds realize a punitive Brexit hurts Germany and South Europe harder than the UK."

That myth is actually believed by some in the United Kingdom and is a big part of how and why that country got itself into this mess in the first place. Any kind of Brexit will be punitive for the UK and as for "sounder minds" having any influence, there's not much hope of that considering who just became prime minister.
 
art
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Re: LCY / Hard Brexit consequences

Mon Aug 05, 2019 10:15 am

I don't foresee a big drop in demand from tourism traffic with a hard Brexit and, presumably, an associated fall in sterling against the euro.. Londoners travelling from LCY are not buying the cheapest option available (travel from airports other than LHR and LCY) so I think an increase in the cost of their holiday will have little effect on their choice of airport.
 
Stickpusher
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Re: LCY / Hard Brexit consequences

Mon Aug 05, 2019 10:19 am

SCQ83 wrote:


It's an interesting read, although I'm always a bit concerned when articles focus on the UK-EU trade relationship as though it exists in isolation.

Unless the UK's trading partners post-Brexit agree to bridge trade by allowing the UK to trade as though it was still an EU member - under the deals cut by the EU (massive concession that might ease cliff-edge disruption but would make no economic sense beyond a very short term) the UK will be going onto WTO terms everywhere because it loses the base agreement it enjoyed as a member and which it helped negotiate. A lot of trading relationships all being simultaneously renegotiated and rewritten. On the bright side there'll be a jobs boom in the Civil Service!

+++

For LCY I'm not sure I see any effect at all. Perhaps fewer EU visitors for the purpose of business because some trade has moved elsewhere, but until London's status as a key financial centre is affected it may be negligible.

That's a real possibility down the line since London's position is an accident of imperial history - when imperialism began to fade, Britain was the pre-eminent trading entity around and got a huge head start in financing and insuring sea transportation across the world. It liberalised trade and moved away from mercantilism (a factor in the decline of slavery) in response to the newly-independent US needing to trade with anyone it could for the essentials it needed - something that broke the old system. All Britain's imperial adversaries were very keen to exploit this split and take the Empire down a peg, so Britain had little choice but to nip that in the bud by exploiting its old pre-eminence in a new liberalised way. At that moment London became the unassailable hub of the world's finances because its old position was exploited to create its new position. But that's a one-off event.

Since then a lot has changed and it's really the stability of Britain's economy and currency in the world that underpinned this ongoing favourable position. Globalisation of everything happened after the UK went into the EU and it will be emerging into a more competitive and hostile trading environment. When London was in the EU, the EU was more than happy to sustain its preeminence because we were "one of the guys", and that will end in a few months with consequences as yet unknown. That might affect LCY in the medium future, I guess.

BFS and BHD on the other hand might well see a lift in their fortunes. If a hard border goes up in Ireland people won't use better-connected DUB as an option and go direct instead. Longer term, who knows. There are too many big and complex changes coming to really get a grasp on.

A lot depends on what happens to Sterling. The pound is already significantly impacted, and being optimistic I'd say that there will be a downward shock in the event of no-deal that might recover in a fairly short time. If however London's financial position goes into decline, then Sterling will follow sure as night follows day. The less people trade in your currency, the less meaning your currency has. And if that happens even domestic travel will ultimately be affected, at which point all bets are off. London has always been vital to Britain's global position, Brexit will make it critical - which might in turn affect the air transport in a good way!

Sorry this is yet another boring fairly non-av post, but I think these macro factors are important to consider no matter what your position is on the whole idea.
 
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flyingturtle
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Re: LCY / Hard Brexit consequences

Mon Aug 05, 2019 10:54 am

AFAIK, all international commercial flights from UK airports run under treaties facilitated by the EU. Iceland? Good luck. Flight to France? Good luck. Flight to the US? Good luck.

lightsaber wrote:
I hope sounder minds realize a punitive Brexit hurts Germany and South Europe harder than the UK.



What part of Brexit is "punitive"? The UK thinks it's better off outside of the EU. The EU can't punish a non-member at all. Brexit is, by design, non-punitive. It's just a self-inflicted flesh wound. And because some voting powers will be shifted to Mediterranean countries, Southern Europe will see more influence in Brussels thanks to UK leaving.
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B777LRF
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Re: LCY / Hard Brexit consequences

Mon Aug 05, 2019 11:01 am

London City exists because of The City; the latter can function without the former, but not the other way round.

Those financial institutions (may their arseholes be forever itching and their arms too short) are moving ever larger number of employees out of London and towards Amsterdam, Paris and Frankfurt. With every employee moved, the raison d'entre for LCY is diminishing. There might very well be a point where services have to be curtailed or dropped outright, if and when we see that happening we can start an informed debate about the future of LCY.

But if the banks, investment and insurance companies and so forth seriously start to wind down their presence in The City, consequences for LCY are obvious.
Signature. You just read one.
 
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vhtje
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Re: LCY / Hard Brexit consequences

Mon Aug 05, 2019 11:16 am

art wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
If travel to/from UK to Europe drops, that means the EU is taking a huge GNP hit. The UK has a trade deficit with the EU.

I hope sounder minds realize a punitive Brexit hurts Germany and South Europe harder than the UK.

Lightsaber


I live in the UK. Was thinking of moving to France before UK electors voted to leave the EU.

I do not think that the EU leadership see the possible departure of the UK primarily in economic terms. I think the EU leadership looks first towards closer and closer political integration of its members. Departure of the UK without considerable economic loss to the UK would encourage some other EU countries to consider leaving as well. I think that the EU leadership would rather see the EU suffer economically than give any encouragement to any other members to leave.

When the UK formally gave notice of its intention to leave the EU, the EU could have started trade negotiations but refused. Had they agreed to starting trade negotiations with the UK, the looming economic damage to their members and the UK could have easily lbeen avoided.

That's politics, folks| No idea what effect politics will have on LCY.


The EU has to punish the UK for leaving. From the EU's perspective, it cannot be better outside the EU than it is in it. If it were, then the EU will have a huge problem as other member states will line up for the door, looking for the same sunshine, free from the EU.

With regards to the effect of Brexit on LCY, it depends upon the economic outcome. For hard brexiteers who believe the UK will thrive outside of the EU - that is, the UK economy will boom after we leave - then there will be no impact on LCY, in fact there would be growth.

For the remainers who think a hard Brexit will be catastrophic to the UK economy, if there is an economic downturn following Brexit, then expect LCY to be affected and for passenger numbers to fall.

Personally, I think we are heading for a hard Brexit and that it will adversely impact the UK economy: I think it will lead to a sustained recession in the UK; my guess is two to three years of a falling and depressed Sterling and of the economy retracting. So I would expect LCY (and all airports) to suffer from falling passenger numbers as a result. However, I also believe that the EU and the UK will quickly agree on some sort of open skies and some arrangement with electronic visa/freedom of movement, so I do not see that as an impediment to flights.
Last edited by vhtje on Mon Aug 05, 2019 11:32 am, edited 1 time in total.
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seansasLCY
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Re: LCY / Hard Brexit consequences

Mon Aug 05, 2019 11:21 am

flyingturtle wrote:
AFAIK, all international commercial flights from UK airports run under treaties facilitated by the EU. Iceland? Good luck. Flight to France? Good luck. Flight to the US? Good luck.


Not quite. The UK has also signed its own deals. Here's an example of the China deal: https://www.ft.com/content/8b3d33b0-8fc ... 778b55a923

US flights will continue as now: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-a ... rangements and this statement also mentions that flights to Iceland among others will also be fine.

The UK has long promoted Open Skies (hence why EK flies A380s endless times a day to the UK and can fly wherever it wants, unlike say Germany) and I imagine this will continue, allowing the UK market to continue as is.
 
Bhoy
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Re: LCY / Hard Brexit consequences

Mon Aug 05, 2019 12:22 pm

vhtje wrote:
However, I also believe that the EU and the UK will quickly agree on some sort of open skies and some arrangement with electronic visa/freedom of movement, so I do not see that as an impediment to flights.

That'll involve rearranging red lines. And if (as there almost has to be) there's a snap General Election in the next year, that loosening of the red lines could lead to even more political chaos...
 
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vhtje
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Re: LCY / Hard Brexit consequences

Mon Aug 05, 2019 1:38 pm

Bhoy wrote:
That'll involve rearranging red lines. And if (as there almost has to be) there's a snap General Election in the next year, that loosening of the red lines could lead to even more political chaos...


How so? Surely the UK and EU could quickly agree on a Canada-like Open Skies arrangement:

European Comission wrote:
Under the Agreement, EU airlines and Canadian airlines are allowed to operate direct flights between any point in Canada and any point within the EU. The Agreement also removes all restrictions on the number of weekly flights between Canada and the EU, the capacity and prices offered by airlines.


It is not as extensive as the existing arrangements, of course - for example, intra-EU flying by UK airlines would fall foul, which might be a problem for EasyJet, and domestic UK services by EU airlines would need to be approved by the UK Government (hello, Ryanair) - but it is a start, and would mean airlines could largely continue to support current schedules.

Source: https://ec.europa.eu/transport/modes/air/international_aviation/country_index/canada_en
I only turn left when boarding aircraft. Well, mostly. All right, sometimes. OH OKAY - rarely.
 
Bhoy
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Re: LCY / Hard Brexit consequences

Mon Aug 05, 2019 2:42 pm

vhtje wrote:
Bhoy wrote:
That'll involve rearranging red lines. And if (as there almost has to be) there's a snap General Election in the next year, that loosening of the red lines could lead to even more political chaos...


How so? Surely the UK and EU could quickly agree on a Canada-like Open Skies arrangement:

European Comission wrote:
Under the Agreement, EU airlines and Canadian airlines are allowed to operate direct flights between any point in Canada and any point within the EU. The Agreement also removes all restrictions on the number of weekly flights between Canada and the EU, the capacity and prices offered by airlines.
I was thinking more of the freedom of movement aspect...

It is not as extensive as the existing arrangements, of course - for example, intra-EU flying by UK airlines would fall foul, which might be a problem for EasyJet, and domestic UK services by EU airlines would need to be approved by the UK Government (hello, Ryanair) - but it is a start, and would mean airlines could largely continue to support current schedules.

Source: https://ec.europa.eu/transport/modes/air/international_aviation/country_index/canada_en

Ryanair are down to a handful of UK domestic routes (EDI-LDY/EDI-STN/BFS-MAN/BFS-STN/LDY-LPL I think), so they're not massively exposed - whereas easyJet have the Austrian AOC to avoid the issue totally.
 
SueD
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Re: LCY / Hard Brexit consequences

Mon Aug 05, 2019 2:50 pm

KlimaBXsst wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
... Eight of the ten countries of origin for foreign travelers to the U.K. in 2017 were in the EU.


Yes a lot more people visit New York from New Jersey simply because of the proximity. The Chunnel will never really isolate UK from Continental Europe.


MIflyer12 wrote:
... Canada didn't even crack the top ten.


Yes Canada is on a whole other American Continent much like Mexico and the USA is.

Hard to compare proximity of the Eurasian Continent to the UK with the North American Continent to the UK.

Guess if we want to compare L1011s to DC10s, 767s to A310s, Tu154 to Tridents, or BAC 111’s to VC10’s these comparisons might work, but comparing proximity of continents to the UK is just daft.

UK Heritage is far more tied to North American Heritage than it is to Continental Europe.


That last statement is absolutely ludicrous!
The British isles and our populations has been inextricably tied with European affairs for two thousand years !
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: LCY / Hard Brexit consequences

Mon Aug 05, 2019 3:03 pm

skipness1E wrote:
kdeg00 wrote:
someone forgetting that the royal family are effectively germans...

UK Heritage is far more tied to North American Heritage than it is to Continental Europe.

How long does someone have to be living in a country before people stop saying things like this? Is Leo Varadkar “effectively Indian”? No, of course not.


If the car had kittens in the oven, you wouldn’t call them biscuits, now would you?
 
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lightsaber
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Re: LCY / Hard Brexit consequences

Mon Aug 05, 2019 3:13 pm

seansasLCY wrote:
flyingturtle wrote:
AFAIK, all international commercial flights from UK airports run under treaties facilitated by the EU. Iceland? Good luck. Flight to France? Good luck. Flight to the US? Good luck.


Not quite. The UK has also signed its own deals. Here's an example of the China deal: https://www.ft.com/content/8b3d33b0-8fc ... 778b55a923

US flights will continue as now: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-a ... rangements and this statement also mentions that flights to Iceland among others will also be fine.

The UK has long promoted Open Skies (hence why EK flies A380s endless times a day to the UK and can fly wherever it wants, unlike say Germany) and I imagine this will continue, allowing the UK market to continue as is.

London is the #1 aviation market globally. Countries want access. The UK will have no issue signing new bilaterals.
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LTU932
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Re: LCY / Hard Brexit consequences

Mon Aug 05, 2019 3:20 pm

seansasLCY wrote:
US flights will continue as now: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-a ... rangements and this statement also mentions that flights to Iceland among others will also be fine.
Can we definitely rule out that with the Brexit, the UK has to revert to Bermuda 2?
seansasLCY wrote:
The UK has long promoted Open Skies
Then why did the UK insist on Bermuda 2 back in the day?
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seansasLCY
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Re: LCY / Hard Brexit consequences

Mon Aug 05, 2019 3:29 pm

LTU932 wrote:
seansasLCY wrote:
US flights will continue as now: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-a ... rangements and this statement also mentions that flights to Iceland among others will also be fine.
Can we definitely rule out that with the Brexit, the UK has to revert to Bermuda 2?
seansasLCY wrote:
The UK has long promoted Open Skies
Then why did the UK insist on Bermuda 2 back in the day?


Bermuda II was signed in 1977. A lot changed since then and as you know it takes two countries to make an agreement so change can be slow. By long promoted, I was referring to at least the past 25 years.
 
SueD
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Re: LCY / Hard Brexit consequences

Mon Aug 05, 2019 3:45 pm

Bermuda 2 was a different universe and time frame of protectionism.

BA AND BAA were effectively agents of the state .

Unlimited access for US carriers into Heathrow was NOT opposed but UK stance in negotiations were that access be conditional on some loosening of the US ownership % rules AND cabotage

This remained UK trade policy and indeed the EU / US open sky’s treaty long delayed stalled and shelved 2nd phase talks were meant to address these very thorny issues with Washington

The direct US and EU talks blew a crater the size of Texas in that decade long stand off yet nothing changed over on the Eastern Seaboard !

Now it’s true that the later alliance developments have done much to address much of the access issues for the European big three and their US partners alike, however the cross ownership rules remain protected.

Whilst in the same time frame via some convoluted vehicles the UK second major Trans Atlantic carrier has effectively become controlled from Atlanta !

Today the UK is probably the worlds most open economy.
 
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spinotter
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Re: LCY / Hard Brexit consequences

Mon Aug 05, 2019 4:12 pm

AIR MALTA wrote:
art wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
If travel to/from UK to Europe drops, that means the EU is taking a huge GNP hit. The UK has a trade deficit with the EU.

I hope sounder minds realize a punitive Brexit hurts Germany and South Europe harder than the UK.

Lightsaber


I live in the UK. Was thinking of moving to France before UK electors voted to leave the EU.

I do not think that the EU leadership see the possible departure of the UK primarily in economic terms. I think the EU leadership looks first towards closer and closer political integration of its members. Departure of the UK without considerable economic loss to the UK would encourage some other EU countries to consider leaving as well. I think that the EU leadership would rather see the EU suffer economically than give any encouragement to any other members to leave.

When the UK formally gave notice of its intention to leave the EU, the EU could have started trade negotiations but refused. Had they agreed to starting trade negotiations with the UK, the looming economic damage to their members and the UK could have easily lbeen avoided.

That's politics, folks| No idea what effect politics will have on LCY.

Here we go again. Poor little UK, being punished by the bad EU. The UK created and shaped the single market as well as the EU rules. They must have known how the EU works before leaving. But with their arrogance and laziness (not a plan on how to manage an exit from the EU), they put red lines (no SM and customs union). Sorry to say but, the UK is not better than all EU states and those of the EEA.


The UK, with Wellington and Churchill and Thatcher, has never felt itself at home in Europe, and that 30 miles of the English Channel have left them more insular and less willing to merge. If anything, I would not be surprised by even closer ties between the UK (minus NI?) and the USA. We have the same DNA to a large degree. PS: I look forward to Boris pushing the button that reinstates the border!
 
KlimaBXsst
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Re: LCY / Hard Brexit consequences

Mon Aug 05, 2019 4:32 pm

British Airways... “Brexit No Impact.”

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... nt-460074/
Aesthetically the A 340 got it right!
 
SEU
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Re: LCY / Hard Brexit consequences

Mon Aug 05, 2019 4:38 pm

I think its very Niave to think that stopping trade with the whole word wouldnt affect the UK and LCY, of course it will. It wont be as bad as people make out though once the 500 or so trade agreements with the world are back up and running.
 
KlimaBXsst
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Re: LCY / Hard Brexit consequences

Mon Aug 05, 2019 4:39 pm

KlimaBXsst wrote:
British Airways... “Brexit No Impact.”

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... nt-460074/


SO... I assuming this means “no impact” for LCY too.
Aesthetically the A 340 got it right!
 
PlymSpotter
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Re: LCY / Hard Brexit consequences

Mon Aug 05, 2019 4:44 pm

The biggest potential risk for LCY is the presumed transition back to CAA certification from EASA certification.

There are some hard nuts in the CAA still who want to rectify the 'mistake' made in allowing a +10% dispensation on certain declared distances, and who were definitely unhappy with EASA's established level of safety approach. If they felt the need, LCY could find itself having to make some very expensive and commercially difficult amendments.
...love is just a camouflage for what resembles rage again...
 
jsfr
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Re: LCY / Hard Brexit consequences

Mon Aug 05, 2019 4:44 pm

This is a very funny thread....

European governments are now just tired of the whole thing and the childish behavior of the UK and it’s parliament and have come to terms with fact that it is inevitable and, unfortunately for all, going to be “hard” and now they all just want to move on. Progress has been stalled for three years in Europe because of these silly shenanigans - it is time to put the European project back in forward gear (although we can thank the UK that no one talks about Grexit or Frexit any more...) and the let the UK go on their merry way, which they have chosen for themselves.

That said, London will still be London and people will still want to go there, a lot...

A lot of the companies relocating to the EU will almost certainly keep a very large presence and workforce in the city - there are simply not that many unemployed competant Banker’s, IT experts, Insurance underwriters,etc. in Frankfurt A’dam and Paris to fill those roles, and I can’t imagine the present population of East London emigrating en masse (given how much they paid for their apartments)... so that will almost certainly maintain and maybe even grow LCY traffic.

Not to mention all of the post-“independence” cross border talks and negotiations that will need to occur in the future between Brussels and Westminster (we’ve seen how long negotiations take with the UK)....

Concerning trade, well, unless global warming speeds up really fast, or the English move to a Fish only diet, they really will need to keep buying stuff from Europe and going there on Holidays. Similarly unless the EU has hidden a lot of under-capacity in their factories, they will still be buying things from the UK on November 1st.... For example, I haven't seen any wing factories or engine companies popping up overnight. And Spanish Whiskey sucks.

Life will go on.
 
spannacomo
Posts: 103
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Re: LCY / Hard Brexit consequences

Mon Aug 05, 2019 5:19 pm

flights from LIN to LCY will stop after brexit because you can only fly to EU from LIN. That means 6xAZ and 4xBA will stop.

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