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lightsaber
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E2 sales campaigns and design discussion/scope

Sun Aug 11, 2019 8:40 pm

The E2 production thread is going off topic.

I know IAG is looking at E2-190s.
What other sales campaigns?
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1424001&start=100

This was the year of 'sales surge.'

https://aviationweek.com/commercial-avi ... -push-2019

I'm aware of KLM buying 15:
https://www.ifn.news/posts/klm-announce ... r-e195-e2/

We were also talking the impact of scope.
I personally believe mainline pilots want to, if anything, reduce scope. For example, Delta, about 7 years ago, agreed to reduce 50 seat RJ flying and replace that flying with 717s:

https://blog.seattlepi.com/airlinerepor ... ery-first/

If anything, that set the president. I do not think the 76 seat/ 86,000 lb or 50 seat/ 65,000lb limits will increase. (Excludes AS). This hurts E2-175 prospects as there will not be a US resale market.

I believe Embraer needs to remove weight. Slightly tougher for them than the MRJ. I wish them luck.

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zkojq
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Re: E2 sales campaigns and design discussion/scope

Sun Aug 11, 2019 9:22 pm

It's peculiar isn't it. Embraer seems to be having no trouble ramping up E2 production steeply, but they don't have the orders they need. Meanwhile Airbus has been struggling to ramp up CSeries production despite a very healthy backlog.
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STT757
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Re: E2 sales campaigns and design discussion/scope

Sun Aug 11, 2019 9:47 pm

The big one is United, who if they order the ERJ195E2 will be able to add additional 75 seat ERJ-175s. They can add 1 new ERJ-175 for each 1.25 additional ERJ-195E2s they add up to 70 additional ERJ-175s for 88 ERJ-195E2s.

If Embraer could land that order from United that would change the fortunes of the program. United though expressed concerns about adding a new type and whether the economics of the ERJ-195E2 will work for them.


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MIflyer12
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Re: E2 sales campaigns and design discussion/scope

Sun Aug 11, 2019 9:54 pm

STT757 wrote:
The big one is United, who if they order the ERJ195E2 will be able to add additional 75 seat ERJ-175s. They can add 1 new ERJ-175 for each 1.25 additional ERJ-195E2s they add up to 70 additional ERJ-175s for 88 ERJ-195E2s.

If Embraer could land that order from United that would change the fortunes of the program. United though expressed concerns about adding a new type and whether the economics of the ERJ-195E2 will work for them.


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But that's been the case for years already. If UA wanted to add a new small jet it wouldn't go through with the CR550 experiment, spreading 70 seats of cost across just 50 tickets.

You really have to ask how, from a UA mainline point of view, an E95-2 is superior to the 221 or 223. I don't see it unless Embraer gives them away or UA is in a great hurry to get them.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: E2 sales campaigns and design discussion/scope

Sun Aug 11, 2019 10:44 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
STT757 wrote:
The big one is United, who if they order the ERJ195E2 will be able to add additional 75 seat ERJ-175s. They can add 1 new ERJ-175 for each 1.25 additional ERJ-195E2s they add up to 70 additional ERJ-175s for 88 ERJ-195E2s.

If Embraer could land that order from United that would change the fortunes of the program. United though expressed concerns about adding a new type and whether the economics of the ERJ-195E2 will work for them.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Pro

But that's been the case for years already. If UA wanted to add a new small jet it wouldn't go through with the CR550 experiment, spreading 70 seats of cost across just 50 tickets.

You really have to ask how, from a UA mainline point of view, an E95-2 is superior to the 221 or 223. I don't see it unless Embraer gives them away or UA is in a great hurry to get them.

If I recall correctly, the A221 would count the same as an E2-195. Would the A223?.

I see a market for a premium heavy 50 seat RJ, but only because of scope clauses.

If UA adds another fleet type, I would expect an order for 88, but attempts to increase the quantity of RJ a by adding more mainline.

I wouldn't assume on the UA order. The slots would be early...

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superbizzy73
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Re: E2 sales campaigns and design discussion/scope

Sun Aug 11, 2019 11:23 pm

I still think the 175-E2 has AS written all over it. They’re not under any of the scope-clause issues, are they?
 
TObound
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Re: E2 sales campaigns and design discussion/scope

Mon Aug 12, 2019 12:00 am

Beyond an early delivery date and probably heavy discounts, what’s the value proposition for the E2? If you want something below 100 seats, the MRJ does as well or better. If you’re in the 100-150 seat range, the A220/CSeries does better. So unless you need aircraft earlier or can get some heavy discounts from Embraer/Boeing Brasil, what’s the value proposition? The best I can see is that Boeing does its best to package them with 737 Max sales.

All that still address the scope issues. And here the MRJ will eventually (probably) be able to both shed weight and get some forgiveness on MTOW from the unions to make them viable. Embraer? There’s no way unions are going to allow that much of an MTOW increase, let alone upping the seat count to 80 or 84. That high a seat count might tempt airlines like UA and AA to grow their regionals over getting a mainline 100 seater.

I am curious how the unions would see a limit of 80 seats and 90 000 lbs MTOW. That’s the minimum that might allow wiggle room for both OEMs and the airlines to get the 175-E2 and the MR90 into service among US regionals. Absent that kind of concession, both airlines will have to do some serious work. EMB may have to bite the bullet and commence work on an 170-E2 that’s slightly shorter than 1750-E2 and as scope compliant on MTOW.
Last edited by TObound on Mon Aug 12, 2019 12:19 am, edited 3 times in total.
 
TObound
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Re: E2 sales campaigns and design discussion/scope

Mon Aug 12, 2019 12:07 am

superbizzy73 wrote:
I still think the 175-E2 has AS written all over it. They’re not under any of the scope-clause issues, are they?


They’d be a good fit at Horizon. But their Q400s still have some life left in them. And their E175s are brand new (the oldest had their first flight in 2017). They don’t need to order for at least a few years.

Not to mention, they have bigger fish to fry digesting the Virgin merger and dealing with the 737 Max issues.
 
superbizzy73
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Re: E2 sales campaigns and design discussion/scope

Mon Aug 12, 2019 1:08 am

TObound wrote:
superbizzy73 wrote:
I still think the 175-E2 has AS written all over it. They’re not under any of the scope-clause issues, are they?


They’d be a good fit at Horizon. But their Q400s still have some life left in them. And their E175s are brand new (the oldest had their first flight in 2017). They don’t need to order for at least a few years.

Not to mention, they have bigger fish to fry digesting the Virgin merger and dealing with the 737 Max issues.


All very true, and good points. I keep forgetting how young some of their E175’s are. I’m still kind of curious how the E2 would fit in as a follow-up order to replace the older E175’s.
 
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Re: E2 sales campaigns and design discussion/scope

Mon Aug 12, 2019 1:14 am

TObound wrote:
If you want something below 100 seats, the MRJ does as well or better.


How could you possibly know this?
 
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Re: E2 sales campaigns and design discussion/scope

Mon Aug 12, 2019 3:14 am

Pudelhund wrote:
TObound wrote:
If you want something below 100 seats, the MRJ does as well or better.


How could you possibly know this?


Same engine. Lighter airplane. As far as fit gor purpose goes, I'd say it's a reasonable guess to say the MRJ is close or better. With pricing and delivery slots making up the difference.
 
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Pudelhund
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Re: E2 sales campaigns and design discussion/scope

Tue Aug 13, 2019 4:11 am

TObound wrote:
Pudelhund wrote:
TObound wrote:
If you want something below 100 seats, the MRJ does as well or better.


How could you possibly know this?


Same engine. Lighter airplane. As far as fit gor purpose goes, I'd say it's a reasonable guess to say the MRJ is close or better. With pricing and delivery slots making up the difference.


The weight of an aircraft is not the whole picture when it comes to efficiency. Furthermore, The MRJ90, which competes most directly in size to the E175E2, is 81 seats in a dual class (measured at 36" pitch in J and 29-31" in Y) vs. 80 seats in a dual class on the E175E2 (measured at 38" pitch in J and 31" in Y). The difference in MTOW for the MRJ90 is 42,800kg, the E175E2 is 44,800kg. Not much of a difference at all considering the other variables.
 
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Re: E2 sales campaigns and design discussion/scope

Tue Aug 13, 2019 5:21 am

superbizzy73 wrote:
TObound wrote:
superbizzy73 wrote:
I still think the 175-E2 has AS written all over it. They’re not under any of the scope-clause issues, are they?


They’d be a good fit at Horizon. But their Q400s still have some life left in them. And their E175s are brand new (the oldest had their first flight in 2017). They don’t need to order for at least a few years.

Not to mention, they have bigger fish to fry digesting the Virgin merger and dealing with the 737 Max issues.


All very true, and good points. I keep forgetting how young some of their E175’s are. I’m still kind of curious how the E2 would fit in as a follow-up order to replace the older E175’s.


The E1s have been a very good fit for QX and the focus is shifting back to strengthening local flights around the northwest with the Q400s now finding renewed importance.

I personally think the E2 could firmly put AS ahead of the competition around the longer regional flights, but I don’t see QX being able to support another new fleet type this soon after the introduction of the E1s

On a minor side note, The E2 is too large to fit into any of the Horizon spots in SEA to my knowledge. Widening them to fit the extra wingspan might have to involve sacrificing a gate or two, and the Alaska side is already full
 
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Re: E2 sales campaigns and design discussion/scope

Wed Aug 14, 2019 1:36 pm

Pudelhund wrote:
The weight of an aircraft is not the whole picture when it comes to efficiency. Furthermore, The MRJ90, which competes most directly in size to the E175E2, is 81 seats in a dual class (measured at 36" pitch in J and 29-31" in Y) vs. 80 seats in a dual class on the E175E2 (measured at 38" pitch in J and 31" in Y). The difference in MTOW for the MRJ90 is 42,800kg, the E175E2 is 44,800kg. Not much of a difference at all considering the other variables.


You're forgetting about the M100 that Mitsubishi just announced. 76 seats and 42 tons. 15 ft shorter wingspan than a 175-E2. They are able to paper derate to 39 tons (limit to tanking 2100 gallons) to meet scope. They have a scope-limited range of 1500 nm. If the 175-E2 undertook the same exercise (paper de-rate) would they even be able to get 1000nm?

This is what I mean about the MRJ being better in the >100 seat category.

I just don't get why American scope limited airlines would pick the 175-E2 over the M100. For other airlines that want something close to 100 seats, I agree that the E2 is a better fit.
 
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Re: E2 sales campaigns and design discussion/scope

Wed Aug 14, 2019 1:44 pm

452QX wrote:
On a minor side note, The E2 is too large to fit into any of the Horizon spots in SEA to my knowledge. Widening them to fit the extra wingspan might have to involve sacrificing a gate or two, and the Alaska side is already full


The Mitsubishi M100 has a shorter wingspan than the Q400. Might be very relevant in the future.
 
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Re: E2 sales campaigns and design discussion/scope

Wed Aug 14, 2019 1:53 pm

Yes the M100 will be a huge success in the US regional airlines. He will kill the E175-E1 and E2
 
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Re: E2 sales campaigns and design discussion/scope

Wed Aug 14, 2019 2:47 pm

queb wrote:
Yes the M100 will be a huge success in the US regional airlines. He will kill the E175-E1 and E2


RealIy ? I am seated and waiting for their sales ...
 
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Re: E2 sales campaigns and design discussion/scope

Wed Aug 14, 2019 2:57 pm

EMBSPBR wrote:
queb wrote:
Yes the M100 will be a huge success in the US regional airlines. He will kill the E175-E1 and E2


RealIy ? I am seated and waiting for their sales ...


The E175-E2 is already dead, I don't understand why they still put money in. For the E1, he's still alive because he did not have a serious competitor until now. Order for the M100 will come when customers will be sure there will be no more delay.
 
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Re: E2 sales campaigns and design discussion/scope

Wed Aug 14, 2019 3:39 pm

You can have the best design on the market, if quality and customer support are deficient you are dead. Embraer seems to be reliable on those aspects, and we can guess that with Boeing it will stay like that.

Mitsubishi needs to build the whole infrastructure around its SpaceJet almost from ashes.
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queb
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Re: E2 sales campaigns and design discussion/scope

Wed Aug 14, 2019 3:46 pm

LaunchDetected wrote:
You can have the best design on the market, if quality and customer support are deficient you are dead. Embraer seems to be reliable on those aspects, and we can guess that with Boeing it will stay like that.

Mitsubishi needs to build the whole infrastructure around its SpaceJet almost from ashes.


Agree, with the E1 you need a very good customer support, ask Air Canada and JetBlue.
 
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Re: E2 sales campaigns and design discussion/scope

Wed Aug 14, 2019 4:04 pm

EMBSPBR wrote:
queb wrote:
Yes the M100 will be a huge success in the US regional airlines. He will kill the E175-E1 and E2


RealIy ? I am seated and waiting for their sales ...


Now that they have BBD's CRJ support organization/network, I have a feeling you'll be singing a different tune in a few months.

I am waiting for Embraer to announce the E170-E2 after finally admitting defeat on the E175-E2.
Last edited by TObound on Wed Aug 14, 2019 4:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
TObound
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Re: E2 sales campaigns and design discussion/scope

Wed Aug 14, 2019 4:09 pm

LaunchDetected wrote:
Mitsubishi needs to build the whole infrastructure around its SpaceJet almost from ashes.


What do you think they bought Bombardier's CRJ program for?

Analysts agree: Mitsubishi does not envy the CRJ itself, but rather the global structure accompanying it, everything from engineering and certification expertise to customer relationships and support. They note airlines shy from buying aircraft from smaller airframers that lack global support, citing Sukhoi Superjet 100 maintenance struggles as a cautionary example.

"[Mitsubishi] wants the customer base around the world, the support network," says Addison Schonland, partner at consultancy AirInsight Group. "[They] need certification people, engineering and production people."


https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/analysis-how-the-crj-could-save-the-mrj-458742/
 
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EMBSPBR
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Re: E2 sales campaigns and design discussion/scope

Wed Aug 14, 2019 6:52 pm

queb wrote:
LaunchDetected wrote:
You can have the best design on the market, if quality and customer support are deficient you are dead. Embraer seems to be reliable on those aspects, and we can guess that with Boeing it will stay like that.

Mitsubishi needs to build the whole infrastructure around its SpaceJet almost from ashes.


Agree, with the E1 you need a very good customer support, ask Air Canada and JetBlue.


You can also ask to Aeroméxico, Alitália, American Airlines, Air France, Azul, Austrian, British Airways, COPA, JAL, KLM, LOT, Lufthansa, TAP, Tianjin, among others ...
 
SEU
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Re: E2 sales campaigns and design discussion/scope

Wed Aug 14, 2019 9:13 pm

I feel the E2 has a massive struggle coming. For an airline the opportunity cost of buying the E2 is not getting the A220..... Why would you take the E2 over the A220?
 
queb
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Re: E2 sales campaigns and design discussion/scope

Wed Aug 14, 2019 9:54 pm

SEU wrote:
I feel the E2 has a massive struggle coming. For an airline the opportunity cost of buying the E2 is not getting the A220..... Why would you take the E2 over the A220?


Yes, Embraer is in the same situation than BBD 20 years ago with their CRJ700/900 when Embraer launched the Ejet. Even worse, the E2 is squeezed between 2 cleansheet aircraft.
 
GmvAfcs
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Re: E2 sales campaigns and design discussion/scope

Wed Aug 14, 2019 10:26 pm

queb wrote:
SEU wrote:
I feel the E2 has a massive struggle coming. For an airline the opportunity cost of buying the E2 is not getting the A220..... Why would you take the E2 over the A220?


Yes, Embraer is in the same situation than BBD 20 years ago with their CRJ700/900 when Embraer launched the Ejet. Even worse, the E2 is squeezed between 2 cleansheet aircraft.


It is clear that you don’t have any knowledge on the E2.
 
SEU
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Re: E2 sales campaigns and design discussion/scope

Wed Aug 14, 2019 10:29 pm

GmvAfcs wrote:
queb wrote:
SEU wrote:
I feel the E2 has a massive struggle coming. For an airline the opportunity cost of buying the E2 is not getting the A220..... Why would you take the E2 over the A220?


Yes, Embraer is in the same situation than BBD 20 years ago with their CRJ700/900 when Embraer launched the Ejet. Even worse, the E2 is squeezed between 2 cleansheet aircraft.


It is clear that you don’t have any knowledge on the E2.


Well I know its near enough a clean sheet design, but tell me what we have missed. Why would you choose the E2 over the A220?
 
GmvAfcs
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Re: E2 sales campaigns and design discussion/scope

Wed Aug 14, 2019 10:43 pm

Both airplanes are economically very close. Even JetBlue admits this:
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... 20-450121/

So the E2 is not a dead rat like some like to picture it. It is able to compete against A220 very well. Most of the sales stalled mainly due to merger with Boeing.
 
queb
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Re: E2 sales campaigns and design discussion/scope

Wed Aug 14, 2019 11:01 pm

It's not just about cost, it's also about the right size, range. The A220 is almost a perfect fit with the A320neo, I don't think the E2 is a good fit with the Max. In ten years, I think there will be more Boeing Brazil workers on B797 sub-assemblies than on the E2.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: E2 sales campaigns and design discussion/scope

Thu Aug 15, 2019 12:54 am

queb wrote:
LaunchDetected wrote:
You can have the best design on the market, if quality and customer support are deficient you are dead. Embraer seems to be reliable on those aspects, and we can guess that with Boeing it will stay like that.

Mitsubishi needs to build the whole infrastructure around its SpaceJet almost from ashes.


Agree, with the E1 you need a very good customer support, ask Air Canada and JetBlue.

Didn't Mitsubishi just buy the CRJ support network?

Embraer has a great support network. In my opinion better than what Mitsubishi just bought by a significant amount.

But as the numbers currently look:
The MRJ with about a 1500nm range will have a reduced business case due to the limited range.

Selling a 1,000 NM E2-175 (shrunk, smaller wing) isn going to work. But with so many of this class of jet US based, it would be tough to sell.

What Embraer needs is a US based sale of the E2. I see merit in the E2-130.

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madpropsyo
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Re: E2 sales campaigns and design discussion/scope

Thu Aug 15, 2019 1:09 am

superbizzy73 wrote:
I still think the 175-E2 has AS written all over it. They’re not under any of the scope-clause issues, are they?


Aren't all of Alaska's 175s only a couple years old though? I can't see them replacing new frames so soon and I'd doubt they would want to introduce a new variant with a top up.

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