VS11
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Titanic discoverer to search for Amelia Earhart plane

Tue Aug 13, 2019 2:32 am

The NYT reports that Robert Ballard - who discovered the Titanic shipwrecks- is to launch a new expedition to search for Amelia Earhart plane:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/12/scie ... llard.html

Fascinating story.
 
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TheFlyingDisk
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Re: Titanic discoverer to search for Amelia Earhart plane

Tue Aug 13, 2019 2:49 am

If only he is involved in the search for MH370...
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LAX772LR
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Re: Titanic discoverer to search for Amelia Earhart plane

Tue Aug 13, 2019 4:06 am

TheFlyingDisk wrote:
If only he is involved in the search for MH370...

+1

At least finding MH370 could be useful to living people, from a personal and legal standpoint.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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Siren
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Re: Titanic discoverer to search for Amelia Earhart plane

Tue Aug 13, 2019 8:39 am

I expect that Ballard will find what he's looking for. The weight of the evidence is quite high in my view. The TIGHAR people who've run numerous expeditions out to Nikumaroro have found compelling evidence, but the most compelling is the Bevington Object as referred to in the article. TIGHAR has a pretty comprehensive analysis of the object, plus they attempted to do a forensic recreation to see if the landing gear of the aircraft would match what was photographed in late 1937. It's not a simple smudge on a reef. I'm pretty sure they're going to find an Electra when they start looking for one... The link to the analysis is here for anyone interested: https://tighar.org/Projects/Earhart/Arc ... lysis.html
 
bennett123
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Re: Titanic discoverer to search for Amelia Earhart plane

Tue Aug 13, 2019 12:12 pm

Two huge differences;

1. A Lockheed Electra is much smaller than the Titanic.

2. Right from the start, they knew roughly where it sank.
 
GZM1
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Re: Titanic discoverer to search for Amelia Earhart plane

Wed Aug 14, 2019 3:45 am

3. Also, there had been other missions that had failed, so he knew where not to look.

The navy must have known all along they say, with such huge target in their sonars, but would not reveal it.
Personally I agree with the lady curator’s opinion. Amelia ditched somewhere near Howland, she won’t be found so easily...
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tu204
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Re: Titanic discoverer to search for Amelia Earhart plane

Wed Aug 14, 2019 5:15 am

It's been 85 years. After the decay wouldn't it be like looking for a needle in a haystack?

Particularly a couple engine parts like case and cylinders in an ocean? I assume nothing would be left of the fusulage.
I do not dream about movie stars, they must dream about me for I am real and they are not. - Alexander Popov
 
dstc47
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Re: Titanic discoverer to search for Amelia Earhart plane

Wed Aug 14, 2019 8:46 am

Even if this is what is claimed, how far could it have migrated from any crash site due to waves and tides?

A lot of sea in the Pacific.
 
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gunsontheroof
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Re: Titanic discoverer to search for Amelia Earhart plane

Wed Aug 14, 2019 9:05 am

TheFlyingDisk wrote:
If only he is involved in the search for MH370...


Difference being that the search area for MH370 is enormous. Ballard at least had a rough idea of the Titanic's location and while I think this new pursuit for Earhart's plane is futile, at least there are some leads more specific than "southern Indian Ocean." He wouldn't be of much help in the search for MH370.
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spacecadet
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Re: Titanic discoverer to search for Amelia Earhart plane

Wed Aug 14, 2019 9:34 am

Siren wrote:
I expect that Ballard will find what he's looking for. The weight of the evidence is quite high in my view. The TIGHAR people who've run numerous expeditions out to Nikumaroro have found compelling evidence, but the most compelling is the Bevington Object as referred to in the article.


Agreed - this mystery has pretty much been solved and most people just don't seem to know it. This is low hanging fruit for someone who can get the media to follow them.
I'm tired of being a wanna-be league bowler. I wanna be a league bowler!
 
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OA940
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Re: Titanic discoverer to search for Amelia Earhart plane

Wed Aug 14, 2019 9:47 am

gunsontheroof wrote:
TheFlyingDisk wrote:
If only he is involved in the search for MH370...


Difference being that the search area for MH370 is enormous. Ballard at least had a rough idea of the Titanic's location and while I think this new pursuit for Earhart's plane is futile, at least there are some leads more specific than "southern Indian Ocean." He wouldn't be of much help in the search for MH370.


Difference being that finding MH370 would bring closure to 239 families and would shed light on the greatest mystery in aviation history, and we could finally know what happened, because as of now we're not 100% sure. Finding a Lockheed plane from the 30s is just something to get a pat on the shoulder. It is useful to absolutely nobody.
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BartSimpson
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Re: Titanic discoverer to search for Amelia Earhart plane

Wed Aug 14, 2019 10:52 am

tu204 wrote:
It's been 85 years. After the decay wouldn't it be like looking for a needle in a haystack?


Yes, but the problem is that nobody even knows on which farm the haystack is.
 
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gunsontheroof
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Re: Titanic discoverer to search for Amelia Earhart plane

Wed Aug 14, 2019 11:10 am

OA940 wrote:
gunsontheroof wrote:
TheFlyingDisk wrote:
If only he is involved in the search for MH370...


Difference being that the search area for MH370 is enormous. Ballard at least had a rough idea of the Titanic's location and while I think this new pursuit for Earhart's plane is futile, at least there are some leads more specific than "southern Indian Ocean." He wouldn't be of much help in the search for MH370.


Difference being that finding MH370 would bring closure to 239 families and would shed light on the greatest mystery in aviation history, and we could finally know what happened, because as of now we're not 100% sure. Finding a Lockheed plane from the 30s is just something to get a pat on the shoulder. It is useful to absolutely nobody.


I would agree. My point was that I don't think Dr. Ballard has much to offer the search for MH370.
Picked a hell of a week to quit sniffing glue.
 
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OA940
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Re: Titanic discoverer to search for Amelia Earhart plane

Wed Aug 14, 2019 2:43 pm

gunsontheroof wrote:
OA940 wrote:
gunsontheroof wrote:

Difference being that the search area for MH370 is enormous. Ballard at least had a rough idea of the Titanic's location and while I think this new pursuit for Earhart's plane is futile, at least there are some leads more specific than "southern Indian Ocean." He wouldn't be of much help in the search for MH370.


Difference being that finding MH370 would bring closure to 239 families and would shed light on the greatest mystery in aviation history, and we could finally know what happened, because as of now we're not 100% sure. Finding a Lockheed plane from the 30s is just something to get a pat on the shoulder. It is useful to absolutely nobody.


I would agree. My point was that I don't think Dr. Ballard has much to offer the search for MH370.


The more I think about it the more I think you're right. Still though my mind can't really comprehend why you'd spend thousands or millions of dollars for something that doesn't really matter.
A350/CSeries = bae
 
tu204
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Re: Titanic discoverer to search for Amelia Earhart plane

Wed Aug 14, 2019 4:53 pm

Something else seems peculiar to me about the Bevington Object:

The guys that made the photo spent 3 days surveying the island, how did they not see an object sticking out of the water?
I do not dream about movie stars, they must dream about me for I am real and they are not. - Alexander Popov
 
PhilMcCrackin
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Re: Titanic discoverer to search for Amelia Earhart plane

Wed Aug 14, 2019 6:46 pm

I think the radio communications that were received by several stations in the mid Pacific in the first few days after she crashed conclusively prove that she and the airplane at least survived the landing. As to what happened after that – who knows. Some people claim the Japanese captured her or she could have just died a castaway. But I bet there’s a good chance Ballard finds the aircraft. He’s a smart guy and he wouldn’t be going out there on a wild goose chase if he didn’t think he had at least decent odds of finding it.
 
PaxPicti
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Re: Titanic discoverer to search for Amelia Earhart plane

Wed Aug 14, 2019 7:46 pm

It could be a first step - if he does find Amelia Earhart's plane, that may encourage someone to finance him to look for MH370. Even with his resources it's probably not affordable without outside money.

I would put a small bet on him finding the Electra. The first step is to search fully around Nikumaroro - if the plane isn't within a mile of the island it isn't there, and the found artifacts are just coincidences. If it's not then the assumption has to be that it went into the sea somewhere near Howland, which is a bigger search area but not unfeasibly large.
 
Elementalism
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Re: Titanic discoverer to search for Amelia Earhart plane

Wed Aug 14, 2019 10:53 pm

VS11 wrote:
The NYT reports that Robert Ballard - who discovered the Titanic shipwrecks- is to launch a new expedition to search for Amelia Earhart plane:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/12/scie ... llard.html

Fascinating story.



So what is the US Navy looking for out there? ;) Look up who paid for the titanic search and what was really searched for. Quite fascinating.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Titanic discoverer to search for Amelia Earhart plane

Wed Aug 14, 2019 11:40 pm

Ballard wasn't searching for anything : no complaints.

Now he's searching for something, people complain he's not searching for something else !

Do you also do the work of your colleagues instead of your own ?
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
VS11
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Re: Titanic discoverer to search for Amelia Earhart plane

Thu Aug 15, 2019 12:18 am

Elementalism wrote:
VS11 wrote:
The NYT reports that Robert Ballard - who discovered the Titanic shipwrecks- is to launch a new expedition to search for Amelia Earhart plane:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/12/scie ... llard.html

Fascinating story.



So what is the US Navy looking for out there? ;) Look up who paid for the titanic search and what was really searched for. Quite fascinating.


Yes, I did. Thanks for the tip. But he says he no longer works for the Navy.
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/news ... r-ballard/
 
PhilMcCrackin
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Re: Titanic discoverer to search for Amelia Earhart plane

Thu Aug 15, 2019 12:25 am

He's 75 years old. I doubt he still works for the Navy.
 
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madpropsyo
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Re: Titanic discoverer to search for Amelia Earhart plane

Thu Aug 15, 2019 1:11 am

Where does the money keep pouring in from for these endless searches? More than a few people have made entire careers out of cruising the south pacific looking for this airplane. Nice work if you can get it I guess...
 
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gunsontheroof
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Re: Titanic discoverer to search for Amelia Earhart plane

Thu Aug 15, 2019 2:07 am

OA940 wrote:
gunsontheroof wrote:
OA940 wrote:

Difference being that finding MH370 would bring closure to 239 families and would shed light on the greatest mystery in aviation history, and we could finally know what happened, because as of now we're not 100% sure. Finding a Lockheed plane from the 30s is just something to get a pat on the shoulder. It is useful to absolutely nobody.


I would agree. My point was that I don't think Dr. Ballard has much to offer the search for MH370.


The more I think about it the more I think you're right. Still though my mind can't really comprehend why you'd spend thousands or millions of dollars for something that doesn't really matter.


I think that his skills and resources could be helpful if information comes out that dramatically narrows the scope of the search area for MH370, but I also don't see any point in looking for Earhart's plane. It was likely in many pieces from the outset and unless it's on an island in a remote atoll, those pieces have fragmented and relocated over the course of nearly a century. As you said, a very expensive and inconsequential undertaking.
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Thunderbolt500
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Re: Titanic discoverer to search for Amelia Earhart plane

Thu Aug 15, 2019 2:33 am

Where is mh 370?
 
Lrockeagle
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Re: Titanic discoverer to search for Amelia Earhart plane

Thu Aug 15, 2019 2:49 am

Siren wrote:
I expect that Ballard will find what he's looking for. The weight of the evidence is quite high in my view. The TIGHAR people who've run numerous expeditions out to Nikumaroro have found compelling evidence, but the most compelling is the Bevington Object as referred to in the article. TIGHAR has a pretty comprehensive analysis of the object, plus they attempted to do a forensic recreation to see if the landing gear of the aircraft would match what was photographed in late 1937. It's not a simple smudge on a reef. I'm pretty sure they're going to find an Electra when they start looking for one... The link to the analysis is here for anyone interested: https://tighar.org/Projects/Earhart/Arc ... lysis.html

So they have the Bevington Object and they’ve been out to the island numerous times? How have they not located the Bevington Object? With modern technology finding an Electra would be a slam dunk
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NYPECO
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Re: Titanic discoverer to search for Amelia Earhart plane

Thu Aug 15, 2019 2:59 am

LAX772LR wrote:
TheFlyingDisk wrote:
If only he is involved in the search for MH370...

+1

At least finding MH370 could be useful to living people, from a personal and legal standpoint.


I'm sure he would help with MH370 if he had the same kind of clue like that. Right now they don't have any idea where to look for MH370.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Titanic discoverer to search for Amelia Earhart plane

Thu Aug 15, 2019 7:38 am

NYPECO wrote:
Right now they don't have any idea where to look for MH370.

How are you arriving at that conclusion?
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
PaxPicti
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Re: Titanic discoverer to search for Amelia Earhart plane

Thu Aug 15, 2019 7:56 am

gunsontheroof wrote:
I think that his skills and resources could be helpful if information comes out that dramatically narrows the scope of the search area for MH370, but I also don't see any point in looking for Earhart's plane. It was likely in many pieces from the outset and unless it's on an island in a remote atoll, those pieces have fragmented and relocated over the course of nearly a century. As you said, a very expensive and inconsequential undertaking.

A lot of WWII wrecks in the Pacific are still more or less intact, and this one is less than ten years older. In fact the major reason it would be fragmented is if she did land on the beach at Nikumaroro and the wreck was then broken up by the surf, but in that case most of the pieces will still be in a small area close to the shore and it should be possible to find something. If she ran out of fuel and ditched somewhere near Howland, the plane could be fully intact - in the deep ocean, there are no currents to move anything.

Finding the Titanic and the Bismarck had no value other than historical either, so I don't agree it's a waste of time to look for Earhart - especially if he's successful. At the minimum, it will give more evidence that looking for MH370 isn't a hopeless task.
 
GZM1
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Re: Titanic discoverer to search for Amelia Earhart plane

Thu Aug 15, 2019 3:37 pm

I agree, it is not a waste of time. If he is successful, they will be able to raise her plane (unlike the Titanic) and put it in a museum (Smithsonian perhaps). It will be equivalent to finding Tutankhamun’s tomb. Once every one hundred years...
It will be Ballard’s crowning achievement.
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Siren
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Re: Titanic discoverer to search for Amelia Earhart plane

Thu Aug 15, 2019 7:06 pm

Lrockeagle wrote:
Siren wrote:
I expect that Ballard will find what he's looking for. The weight of the evidence is quite high in my view. The TIGHAR people who've run numerous expeditions out to Nikumaroro have found compelling evidence, but the most compelling is the Bevington Object as referred to in the article. TIGHAR has a pretty comprehensive analysis of the object, plus they attempted to do a forensic recreation to see if the landing gear of the aircraft would match what was photographed in late 1937. It's not a simple smudge on a reef. I'm pretty sure they're going to find an Electra when they start looking for one... The link to the analysis is here for anyone interested: https://tighar.org/Projects/Earhart/Arc ... lysis.html

So they have the Bevington Object and they’ve been out to the island numerous times? How have they not located the Bevington Object? With modern technology finding an Electra would be a slam dunk


Probably because with frequent storms and squalls, the wreckage was picked up and dropped off into the deep water at the base of the Atoll. TIGHAR has not yet been able to fund an ROV search - until Ballard has come on the scene with a comprehensive plan to look for the wreckage on the ocean floor with his own funding. Ballard considers the Bevington object . That said, it's going to be difficult... there's also lots of pieces of the S.S. Norwich City off the reef, and as such, it will make it harder to differentiate the wreckage... they're looking for a light aluminum structure among a field of heavy rusting steel.

Ballard himself believes the Bevington Object is probably the landing gear (source: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/12/scie ... llard.html ) and likely there is not much left to find. It's spread out, smashed to bits by waves. Another bit of evidence: In 1971, a Pratt & Whitney R1340 was recovered by civilian contractors for the USAF on the west end of the reef, which was near the location of the Bevington Object. The engine had piqued their curiosity, but they didn't know about Earhart at the time - they had never heard of her. The engine was taken back to Canton Island, where it remains to this day - the exact location in a dump site is unknown, but it is recoverable in theory. TIGHAR attempted to recover the engine in 1998, but became discouraged after seeing how badly corroded other metal items from the dump site were. Information about the engine that recovered in 1971: https://tighar.org/Publications/TTracks ... ngine.html
 
PhilMcCrackin
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Re: Titanic discoverer to search for Amelia Earhart plane

Thu Aug 15, 2019 7:22 pm

madpropsyo wrote:
Where does the money keep pouring in from for these endless searches? More than a few people have made entire careers out of cruising the south pacific looking for this airplane. Nice work if you can get it I guess...


National Geographic is funding this expedition.

Lrockeagle wrote:
So they have the Bevington Object and they’ve been out to the island numerous times? How have they not located the Bevington Object? With modern technology finding an Electra would be a slam dunk


The Bevington object was was discovered on an old photo of the island. It's anyone's guess what actually happened to it.

Keep in mind, they don't have to find the entire airplane. Aircraft are built out of many parts with serial numbers on them, which we know what was on Earhart's airplane. If they can manage to find a part with a serial on it that can be traced back to her airplane, that's almost as good as finding the airplane itself.
 
PaxPicti
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Re: Titanic discoverer to search for Amelia Earhart plane

Thu Aug 15, 2019 8:41 pm

Even any part that can be conclusively identified as being from a Lockheed Electra will be effectively good enough, since no other ever disappeared near Nikumaroro.

I've been following this story for years and I sway back and forth about whether I think she landed there or not - there is a huge amount of apparently convincing evidence, but it's all made questionable by having disappeared since being originally found or being reported second hand. There's also the question of whether she would have had enough fuel to get there if she really was 'almost on' Howland when she was transmitting to the Itasca.
 
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NYPECO
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Re: Titanic discoverer to search for Amelia Earhart plane

Thu Aug 15, 2019 8:58 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
NYPECO wrote:
Right now they don't have any idea where to look for MH370.

How are you arriving at that conclusion?


The searches are currently suspended. They don't have a clue that points to MH370 being in a single location like they do for Amelia Earhart's Lockheed Electra. So Ballard could try searching for MH370 but it's not going to be as easy as Amelia Earhart's plane since there isn't really a single location to look at.
 
hz747300
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Re: Titanic discoverer to search for Amelia Earhart plane

Fri Aug 16, 2019 1:02 am

I'd rather they look for MH370 too. But I get what they are going for.
Keep on truckin'...
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Titanic discoverer to search for Amelia Earhart plane

Fri Aug 16, 2019 1:56 am

NYPECO wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
NYPECO wrote:
Right now they don't have any idea where to look for MH370.

How are you arriving at that conclusion?


The searches are currently suspended. They don't have a clue that points to MH370 being in a single location

You just said two different things. Not having a pinpoint site is not the equivalent of not "having any idea where to look"......
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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NYPECO
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Re: Titanic discoverer to search for Amelia Earhart plane

Fri Aug 16, 2019 2:54 am

LAX772LR wrote:
NYPECO wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
How are you arriving at that conclusion?


The searches are currently suspended. They don't have a clue that points to MH370 being in a single location

You just said two different things. Not having a pinpoint site is not the equivalent of not "having any idea where to look"......


Ok. They don't have any idea where to look within the search area which is 25,000 square kilometres where the plane might be. Basically what I'm saying is that searching for Earhart's plane doesn't mean they could also be searching for MH370.
 
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qf2220
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Re: Titanic discoverer to search for Amelia Earhart plane

Fri Aug 16, 2019 3:18 am

dstc47 wrote:
A lot of sea in the Pacific.


Not really, actually none.... But a whole lot of ocean yes.

;)

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