tphuang wrote:ewt340 wrote:patrickjp93 wrote:
Um, what planet are you on? The 778 is a drop-in replacement for both the 777-200LR and 777-300ER depending on your configuration. That commonality with the cockpit and cabins is very valuable.
The 779 DOES have direct competition from the A350-1000 384 vs. 414 is not a big PAX difference, and the A350-1000 is a much lighter airframe, much cheaper to land, which is why I think Boeing is going to regret not redoing the fuselage in composites as well, but oh well, that'll be the 777Y family then...
1. B777-300ER carry more passengers and have way less range, hence better economic. Majority are extremely young.
2. B777-200LR doesn't sell well at all.
With the same configurations of 2 class cabin and the latest business class seat. A350-1000 could carry 48 Business Class Seat and 315 economy class seat, total of 363 seats, not 384 seats.
B777-9 could carry 48 Business Class seat and 368 economy class seat. Total of 416 seats. That's 53 seats difference.
You know A350-1000ULR already win against B777-8.
Those 50 extra seat will be sold at a huge discount. And the other 315 Y seats will probably yield lower too since there are more inventory of Y seat to sell now. Think what a discounted ULH y seat is priced at and how much j seat priced at.
Let's do the following example.
Let the average yield on the 315 seat on A350-1000 be 100. And let's say J fares go 5x that, so 500. Same number of J seats to sell on 779 and 35k, so let's assume same yield. Since there are more Y seat to sell, the average yield for the first 315 seat on 779 will be a little lower, let's 95. The remaining 53 seats will be at the lowest price bucket, let's say 60.
total revenue brought in by 35K would be 55500
total revenue brought in by 779 would be 57105
about 3% more in total revenue
Let's say I'm being overly pessimistic here. Let's say the first 315 Y seat on 779 are sold at same yield as A350-1000 and the remaining 53 sold at 30% discount (so 70)
total revenue brought in by 779 would be 59210
about 6.7% more in total revenue
would be interesting to see what the total trip cost of 35K vs 779 is. If 779 trip cost is more than 7% higher than 35K, then whoever is buying 779 better be really confident they can sell those extra 53 y seat at a price that's closer to those first 315 seats. Cause a lot of time those last seats are filled by low yielding connection itineraries.
Uhmm, no. Many airlines that bought B777-9 are premium heavy airlines, ANA, BA, JAL, LH, SQ, all of them are Premium heavy airlines. They all order B777-9 because they need the space to put more first class and/or business class seat + premium economy in the cabin because they could actually fill it. Emirates which have the largest order used the aircraft because they have low profit yield and they need volume. Hence they have tons of A380.
Those size differences between A350-1000 and B777-9 are there for a big reason. You oversimplified the calculations by diminishing other important factors.