leghorn
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Traffic to Great Britain dropping

Tue Aug 13, 2019 10:44 pm

Inspired by the thread about traffic to the Spanish Bucket and Spade Tourist destinations here viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1429093 it appears that the Great Britain despite the expected free publicity of a Royal Wedding isn't doing so great.

https://www.visitbritain.org/2018-snapshot

Trends
The table below shows trends in inbound tourism for the period 2003 to 2018 based on the Office for National Statistics International Passenger Survey. The number of visits in 2018 fell 3% (from the 2017 record) to 37.9 million, after several years of growth since 2010.

The value of spending also decreased by 7% (compared to 2017) to £22.90 billion. Average spend per visit was £604 in 2018, down from £625 per visit in 2017.

The number of visitor nights spent in the UK fell by 7% in 2018 to 266 million, with the average number of nights per visit declining to 7.0 (from 7.3 in 2017).


In a low margin, capital intensive industry like Aviation planning which routes to add, retain or strike is not at all easy,
 
DarthLobster
Posts: 338
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Re: Traffic to Great Britain dropping

Wed Aug 14, 2019 1:28 am

That's what happens when you punish everyone leaving or passing through the country with absurd penalties.
 
Thunderbolt500
Posts: 43
Joined: Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:01 pm

Re: Traffic to Great Britain dropping

Wed Aug 14, 2019 1:31 am

Too Much taxes in britan
 
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Dieuwer
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Re: Traffic to Great Britain dropping

Wed Aug 14, 2019 1:35 am

leghorn wrote:
Inspired by the thread about traffic to the Spanish Bucket and Spade Tourist destinations here viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1429093 it appears that the Great Britain despite the expected free publicity of a Royal Wedding isn't doing so great.

https://www.visitbritain.org/2018-snapshot

Trends
The table below shows trends in inbound tourism for the period 2003 to 2018 based on the Office for National Statistics International Passenger Survey. The number of visits in 2018 fell 3% (from the 2017 record) to 37.9 million, after several years of growth since 2010.

The value of spending also decreased by 7% (compared to 2017) to £22.90 billion. Average spend per visit was £604 in 2018, down from £625 per visit in 2017.

The number of visitor nights spent in the UK fell by 7% in 2018 to 266 million, with the average number of nights per visit declining to 7.0 (from 7.3 in 2017).


In a low margin, capital intensive industry like Aviation planning which routes to add, retain or strike is not at all easy,


Here is a nice graph. Tourist Arrivals in the UK:

Image
 
NYCAAer
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Re: Traffic to Great Britain dropping

Wed Aug 14, 2019 1:38 am

DarthLobster wrote:
That's what happens when you punish everyone leaving or passing through the country with absurd penalties.


This is what I was thinking, too. It costs a family of four an outrageous sum in “Air Passenger Duty” to leave the country, enough to pay for an extra night in a hotel. And I believe the APD has gone up by 10% in the past year.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Traffic to Great Britain dropping

Wed Aug 14, 2019 1:52 am

Dieuwer wrote:
Here is a nice graph. Tourist Arrivals in the UK:

Image

Nice graph. It does put it in perspective.

A drop after a fast ramp.
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YIMBY
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Re: Traffic to Great Britain dropping

Wed Aug 14, 2019 6:28 am

NYCAAer wrote:
DarthLobster wrote:
That's what happens when you punish everyone leaving or passing through the country with absurd penalties.


This is what I was thinking, too. It costs a family of four an outrageous sum in “Air Passenger Duty” to leave the country, enough to pay for an extra night in a hotel. And I believe the APD has gone up by 10% in the past year.


Which country punishes passengers?

Flights to London are definitely cheaper than to any other European capital (Amsterdam being the second). Given how much all other travel modes are taxed and how much air travel is subsidized, any tax or duty to air passengers would be just fair.
 
ltbewr
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Re: Traffic to Great Britain dropping

Wed Aug 14, 2019 7:29 am

The slight decline in visitors to/from the UK in 2018-2019 to date could be due to the current uncertainty of Brexit but also the value of the UK Pound for UK nationals vs. the Euro and US Dollar and the high costs of accommodation in London and other areas of the UK.We also could be seeing an early sign of an economic recession in the EU, UK and elsewhere.
 
AIRT0M
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Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2018 8:54 am

Re: Traffic to Great Britain dropping

Wed Aug 14, 2019 8:01 am

Actually, the weak Pound should result in more visitors, not less (since it is about tourist arrivals to UK).
 
Armadillo1
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Re: Traffic to Great Britain dropping

Wed Aug 14, 2019 8:14 am

interseting how this graph compared to total pax numbers
 
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: Traffic to Great Britain dropping

Wed Aug 14, 2019 8:14 am

AIRT0M wrote:
Actually, the weak Pound should result in more visitors, not less (since it is about tourist arrivals to UK).


But a weak pound now affects decisions several months later affecting tourism several months after that.

And talking of tourism today reflecting last year's events - it's interesting to note that the peak in that graph was around 2017...
"As with most things related to aircraft design, it's all about the trade-offs and much more nuanced than A.net likes to make out."
 
leghorn
Topic Author
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Re: Traffic to Great Britain dropping

Wed Aug 14, 2019 8:34 am

Compare that to its neighbour who isn't leaving the E.U. but is still suffering some distress of their nearest trading partner leaving the trading block.
https://tradingeconomics.com/ireland/tourist-arrivals
 
leghorn
Topic Author
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Re: Traffic to Great Britain dropping

Wed Aug 14, 2019 9:07 am

Ireland: to infinity and beyond at least until their Neigbour and Trading partner crashes out of the trading block.
Image
 
mutu
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Re: Traffic to Great Britain dropping

Wed Aug 14, 2019 11:11 am

DarthLobster wrote:
That's what happens when you punish everyone leaving or passing through the country with absurd penalties.

Well given APD has existed for many many years I doubt it is the reason.
Partly cyclical perhaps. Not too material.probably mirrors inbound tourism to USA which is also down.

Possibly mirrors economic moderation in global economy....
But oddly the UK carriers continue to add passenger growth.....

So less tourism more business?

Who knows. But not a problem. Weak pound in 2019hasapparentlyboosted tourism
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Traffic to Great Britain dropping

Wed Aug 14, 2019 11:16 am

NYCAAer wrote:
DarthLobster wrote:
That's what happens when you punish everyone leaving or passing through the country with absurd penalties.


This is what I was thinking, too. It costs a family of four an outrageous sum in “Air Passenger Duty” to leave the country, enough to pay for an extra night in a hotel. And I believe the APD has gone up by 10% in the past year.


APD was introduced in 1994 and yet the graph shows years of regularly increasing visitor counts. A small % change in APD is utterly overwhelmed in the noise of other travel costs. If an extra 3 Pounds (coach travel, 0-2000 mile band) changes your behavior I suggest you weren't committed to travel in the first place.
 
airbazar
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Re: Traffic to Great Britain dropping

Wed Aug 14, 2019 11:35 am

That's what happens when you marginalize foreigners (Yes that's what Brexit was all about). People stop coming to visit and go spend their money somewhere else. Shocker!
 
VS11
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Re: Traffic to Great Britain dropping

Wed Aug 14, 2019 11:54 am

skipness1E wrote:
If it were only a "trading block", do you think for a minute we'd be leaving?


For the UK which has many opt-outs, it is effectively just a trading block. But even if the UK wanted to avoid political integration, the single market (invented by the UK) provides enough economic advantages. And even if the single market was too much integration, then there is a simple custom union. The current psychodrama about the backstop is entirely useless and unnecessary. The current UK position is completely untenable which is why Brexit date keeps getting pushed. Unfortunately for the UK, there is tons of foreign money that is waiting for the pound to fall even more and for British assets to depreciate even further. It is called the British squeeze. Good luck with that.
 
TheOldDude
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Re: Traffic to Great Britain dropping

Wed Aug 14, 2019 1:40 pm

Although the information on the Great Britain is interesting and the speculation entertaining, the numbers include all forms of travel. Once we look at air travel in isolation (using https://www.visitbritain.org/inbound-to ... nds?mode=1) a much different picture emerges that provides great insight into the the difference between 2018 from 2017:

(1) Passenger counts only fell by 2.53% for air travel versus 5.92% for sea and tunnel.

(2) Spend decreased 7.7% for air travel, versus an increase of 1.3% for sea and tunnel.

(3) Nights decrease 7.8% for air travel versus a decrease of 0.23% for sea and tunnel.

Simply put, the problem with air travel seems to be that people didn't stay as long, and since they didn't stay as long, they didn't spend as much.

With that being said, other interesting information on other pages of the Visit Britain website include:

(1) Forcast 2019 overseas visits INCREASE to UK to 38.9m (2.6%), short of 2017 but higher than all years back to 2013.

(2) Forcase 2019 spending INCREASE of 7%, to an amount equal to 2017's level.
 
leghorn
Topic Author
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Re: Traffic to Great Britain dropping

Wed Aug 14, 2019 1:50 pm

treading water is not progress.
 
SCQ83
Posts: 5208
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Re: Traffic to Great Britain dropping

Wed Aug 14, 2019 1:56 pm

For what is worth, traffic in LHR declined 0.7% in July. January-July growth is only 1.4%. A rise in domestic passengers has partially offset a larger international drop (-3.2% APAC, -1.8% EU, -1.4% LatAm).

https://www.ttgmedia.com/news/news/heat ... gers-18989

For what I read in some of Ryanair's threads, FR plans cuts in SEN and STN.
 
TheOldDude
Posts: 127
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Re: Traffic to Great Britain dropping

Wed Aug 14, 2019 1:58 pm

leghorn wrote:
In a low margin, capital intensive industry like Aviation planning which routes to add, retain or strike is not at all easy


leghorn wrote:
treading water is not progress.


The data and forecast show a small decrease in traffic levels, with a forecast return the following year. I fail to see how that makes aviation planning "not all that easy", particularly since you characterized it as "treading water". Can you elaborate?
 
leghorn
Topic Author
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Re: Traffic to Great Britain dropping

Wed Aug 14, 2019 2:25 pm

Just yesterday another poster was quoting to me a forecast which subsequently turned out not to have happened.

When it takes over 50% of the seats on a flight to break even going from a 80% to a 75 to 77% seat occupancy rate has major impact on profitability.

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