Sokes
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Mon Aug 19, 2019 6:23 am

PacoMartin wrote:
Airbus has a total of 846 unfilled dual-aisle orders
...
1161 orders with 315 deliveries
...
I agree that the next clean sheet will be an A320 replacement and may be another 15 years.


A320.5, A322 and a longer carbon wing for the A320 family is needed. The wing to be optional for longer ranges. However A320.5 would be a declaration of war to Boeing.
Until the engine makers master their recent improvements there is not much Airbus can do. I suppose that's also why Boeing keeps delaying the B797.
The rest of the supply chain may also not be ready for more work. At any rate there is enough manufacturing work pending.

Why not use profits instead for share buybacks to improve shareholder value?
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
Sokes
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Mon Aug 19, 2019 6:24 am

PacoMartin wrote:
Airbus has a total of 846 unfilled dual-aisle orders
...
1161 orders with 315 deliveries
...
I agree that the next clean sheet will be an A320 replacement and may be another 15 years.


A320.5, A322 and a longer carbon wing for the A320 family is needed. The wing to be optional for longer ranges. However A320.5 would be a declaration of war to Boeing.
Until the engine makers master their recent improvements there is not much Airbus can do. I suppose that's also why Boeing keeps delaying the B797.
The rest of the supply chain may also not be ready for more work. At any rate there is enough manufacturing work pending.

Why not use profits instead for share buybacks to improve shareholder value?
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
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seahawk
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Mon Aug 19, 2019 6:34 am

Is the industry ready to take more planes that cost more? We are entering a global recession and airlines have already replaced the old gas guzzlers or have at least ordered the replacements. A recession means less demand and lower fuel prices - not the best enviroment for ordering planes.
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Mon Aug 19, 2019 6:51 am

Has Airbus announced or the press revealed any actual plans for a possible plane, outside of the A321xxxlllrrrxx3
 
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ro1960
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Mon Aug 19, 2019 9:19 am

RalXWB wrote:
snasteve wrote:
In other words, they will continue their existing strategy of not being the first to market in any new category. Not that there are any categories left, but I think you know what I mean here.


Ah, there goes the "Not being the first to market"- myth again. A300, first twin widebody, cough...cough #justsaying


How about first VLA aka A380?
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planecane
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Mon Aug 19, 2019 11:10 am

seahawk wrote:
Is the industry ready to take more planes that cost more? We are entering a global recession and airlines have already replaced the old gas guzzlers or have at least ordered the replacements. A recession means less demand and lower fuel prices - not the best enviroment for ordering planes.


There is likely to be a recession sometime in the next few years only because the economy always goes through cycles and can't have continuous growth forever. However, it is also likely that the recession will only last for a year or two before growth returns. There is only a small window where a launch of a clean sheet would be sub optimal and I don't think a clean sheet from Airbus will line up with that timeline anyway.

Clean sheets from either Airbus or Boeing aren't exactly frequent events. Clean sheet launches of both since Airbus came into existence:

A300 - 1969
B767 - 1978
B757 - 1978
A320 - 1984
A330/A340 - 1987
B777 - 1990
B787 - 2004
A350 - 2006

That's it over the last 50 years. 8 combined clean sheets! All of Boeing's clean sheets have been widebodies in that time frame and all of Airbus' replacement clean sheets have also been widebodies. The next Airbus clean sheet will likely be a narrowbody which likely requires a leap in engine technology. Launch will likely be after the recovery from the next recession is well underway.
 
CHRISBA35X
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Mon Aug 19, 2019 11:45 am

I think they have the NB and WB sectors cinched in so logic dictates you just close the gaps.

I have always felt they were on the right track with the A310. I wonder if we could see an A310-size regional people-mover with the same approx. pax capacity as a 753, able to take LD3s side by side. Aimed at LoCo / charter airlines that want a 260-270 pax aircraft that can be turned in 40 minutes.

Super lightweight A330/350 fuse cross section, new shorter wings optimised for lots of cycles and not much time in cruise. Could you upthrust a A321NEO-LR engines I wonder?

Somewhere between a A338 and A321N-LR optimised for short and ultra short haul.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Mon Aug 19, 2019 11:50 am

Strangely the one thing A300/A310 operators always wanted, was more range...
 
mig17
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Mon Aug 19, 2019 11:58 am

With A221, A223, A320neo, all A321neo and maybe an A225, Airbus is covered on the NB front for now. Boeing will have to move first to replace the 737.
The A359 and A35K with maybe an A350-1100/2000 is fine for the next decade to.
If Airbus has to work on a new design it shall be between A321xlr and A359. A 788/9 and potential mom competitor to replace A330 depending of the succes of the curent A330neo.
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Waterbomber2
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What nois Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Mon Aug 19, 2019 12:10 pm

It's not exactly a clean sheet, but I think that we are going to see something really weird based on the A380. It will look like an A380, but it won't at the same time and will pave the way for future models.

It may not even sell in numbers or be built from new, it could just be existing airframes retrofitted with a bunch of new technologies.

And no, Im not talking about the Plus.
 
CHRISBA35X
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Mon Aug 19, 2019 12:24 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
It's not exactly a clean sheet, but I think that we are going to see something really weird based on the A380. It will look like an A380, but it won't at the same time and will pave the way for future models.

It may not even sell in in numbers or be built from new and just be retrofitted with a bunch of new technologies.


A vast 12 abreast megatwin with 10% better fuel burn as a 779X but 25-30% more floorspace and similar range. That is how the next VLA will come about. Whether Airbus or Boeing (or COMAC?) build it, i guess we'll find out. Wont be this side of 2030 i'm certain.
 
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Mon Aug 19, 2019 12:51 pm

CHRISBA35X wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
It's not exactly a clean sheet, but I think that we are going to see something really weird based on the A380. It will look like an A380, but it won't at the same time and will pave the way for future models.

It may not even sell in in numbers or be built from new and just be retrofitted with a bunch of new technologies.


A vast 12 abreast megatwin with 10% better fuel burn as a 779X but 25-30% more floorspace and similar range. That is how the next VLA will come about. Whether Airbus or Boeing (or COMAC?) build it, i guess we'll find out. Wont be this side of 2030 i'm certain.


Do you have any idea on how big those engines would need to be?
 
Kalun
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Mon Aug 19, 2019 12:54 pm

Let say Airbus remove a320 and a330 from its lineup in the future.

What if airbus introduce a 7 abreast Aircraft, all odd numbers? Which means that,
A220 = 5 Abreast
A3xx = 7 Abreast
A350 = 9 Abreast.

What if Airbus go with the b767 exact replacement with exact number of range and seating capacity with improved efficiency. This means that it go head to head with b797. If a320 can go head to head with b737, why not an airbus 7 abreast aircraft.

Predicted airbus lineup:
A220 - 100, 300, 500
A3XX - 100, 300, 500
A350 - 900, 1000, 1100 (Airbus could renumber it to match 100,300,500 numbering)

My prediction for the new A3XX
- 7 abreast, Aluminum lithium + Composite
- Window size same as A220
- All new cockpit design with hybrid of A220 and A350
- 2 class configuration Sitting and range
- A3xx-100: 220 Seats, 12000km (best long ranger for LCC)-- (ULR 15000km)
- A3xx-300: 250 Seats, 10000km (best seller) -- (ULR 14000km)
- A3xx-500: 280 Seats, 8000km (best people hauler)
Above variant has the potential for an ULR. This means that it is a lighter and more efficient version of b767 with the same range.
The only problem for both Airbus and Boeing is the wing size. Both company are having a dilemma of having either a C type gate or D type gas wing. Choose between (reliable wing or smaller gate). LCC would like a smaller gate and a reliable wing.

As for A220-500.. 200 seat in single class. 3 more seat compare to a320neo.
A350-1100 seating config will be close to b777-9.
 
CHRISBA35X
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Mon Aug 19, 2019 12:57 pm

seahawk wrote:
CHRISBA35X wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
It's not exactly a clean sheet, but I think that we are going to see something really weird based on the A380. It will look like an A380, but it won't at the same time and will pave the way for future models.

It may not even sell in in numbers or be built from new and just be retrofitted with a bunch of new technologies.


A vast 12 abreast megatwin with 10% better fuel burn as a 779X but 25-30% more floorspace and similar range. That is how the next VLA will come about. Whether Airbus or Boeing (or COMAC?) build it, i guess we'll find out. Wont be this side of 2030 i'm certain.


Do you have any idea on how big those engines would need to be?


Ballpark I guess 125-130lbs thrust - monstrously large fans for a monstrously large plane. Imagine having to make them fit under a wing!

Or maybe a plane that size will only need engines the size of the current GE9X due to advancements in alloys and materials, weight saving techniques and structural efficiency gains etc? Fascinating to see how they will push this along. It goes beyond the usual AvsB stuff - this is about technology, plain and simple.
 
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Mon Aug 19, 2019 2:34 pm

TheHunt3r wrote:
I'd say the next clean sheet will be elecric/hybrid AC using the laminar wing Airbus is developing. Nothing else really brings large innovation to require a brand new AC. If Boeing goes ahead with it's 797 there will be even less of a reason to make an A330 replacement since if even Boeing is struggling to close the business case there would be even less space for Airbus(subject to demand of course anything can happen)


Battery just doesnt get it done in the commercial airline business. Safety issues and weight are a major issue.Unless we see a massive jump in battery technology. I am not sure we will see an electric commercial aircraft for decades.
 
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keesje
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Mon Aug 19, 2019 2:57 pm

CHRISBA35X wrote:
seahawk wrote:
CHRISBA35X wrote:

A vast 12 abreast megatwin with 10% better fuel burn as a 779X but 25-30% more floorspace and similar range. That is how the next VLA will come about. Whether Airbus or Boeing (or COMAC?) build it, i guess we'll find out. Wont be this side of 2030 i'm certain.


Do you have any idea on how big those engines would need to be?


Ballpark I guess 125-130lbs thrust - monstrously large fans for a monstrously large plane. Imagine having to make them fit under a wing!

Or maybe a plane that size will only need engines the size of the current GE9X due to advancements in alloys and materials, weight saving techniques and structural efficiency gains etc? Fascinating to see how they will push this along. It goes beyond the usual AvsB stuff - this is about technology, plain and simple.


Maybe a third small tail engine/ ATPU, doing 30-35 klbs, foldable inlets, becomes more pratical then developping / cerifying an aircraft around 2 monstrous 140 klbs engines. You could offer a choice of more regular twin 100-110 klbs engines.

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Blotto
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Mon Aug 19, 2019 6:56 pm

Kalun wrote:
Let say Airbus remove a320 and a330 from its lineup in the future.

What if airbus introduce a 7 abreast Aircraft, all odd numbers? Which means that,
A220 = 5 Abreast
A3xx = 7 Abreast
A350 = 9 Abreast.



There is no way, Airbus launches a 7ab plane. Doesn't make sense at all. They will replace the A320 with a single aisle plane centered around the size of the A321 with the legs to fly TATL. Everything below will be covered by the A220.
 
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keesje
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Mon Aug 19, 2019 10:40 pm

An option discussed in the past was to use the fuselage, cockpit and systems of the A330NEO replacing the wing box, wings, engines, landings gears with a light composites wing (box) and the latest engine for a MTOW of 160t and OEW of 80t, 40t (!) lower than an A330. For lower capacity-range flights. We know it's possible :wink2:

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lightsaber
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Tue Aug 20, 2019 12:27 am

keesje wrote:
An option discussed in the past was to use the fuselage, cockpit and systems of the A330NEO replacing the wing box, wings, engines, landings gears with a light composites wing (box) and the latest engine for a MTOW of 160t and OEW of 80t, 40t (!) lower than an A330. For lower capacity-range flights. We know it's possible :wink2:

Image

Those systems wouldn't save 40t.

New engines are always heavier. Higher temperature requires thicker material. Higher pressure requires a thicker casing (pressure vessel).

There isn't a way to save 40t as you described. I know Airbus is working to remove 1000kg from landing gear. A CFRP wing and wingbox would save 6t.

I could remove 7t. New engines add back 1.5 to 2 tons. Greater wingspan to enable underside laminar flow with folding wingtips adds back 2t, but save 7% in fuel burn net. New electric subsystems add 1 to 2 tons but save 3% fuel burn net. Where are you coming up with these numbers?

New material body can save weight, but I didn't see that. It requires new structural design to save weight.

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CHRISBA35X
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Tue Aug 20, 2019 7:52 am

I wonder if perhaps we are all thinking too traditionally and Airbus will perhaps look at a modular solution.

The idea is you have a WB twin to replace the A330 series with two different spans of wings with a choice of no wingtip devices or two sizes of sharklets depending on the range profile you need. Then you have common fuselage width, box, cockpit and tail but with the number of plugs (i.e.: fuse barrel sections) to be determined by the customer. Minimum you can have is three, max is seven etc. There are fuel tank options you can add as well. You have a choice of bleedless powerplants at two or three different thrust ratings all "plug and play" using a common join/linkage/piping to the wing and fuel systems. You also have a choice of two or three different gear setups, one optimised for high cycles at low weights, one for high cycles at high weights and one optimised for low cycles at high weights, ie: different brake specs, structural differences etc.

That way the airline can optimise the aircraft for their needs - if you want a super long range thin point to point specialist then you can choose a three barrel, higher thrust, long span version with the extra tanks and the bigger sharklets. If you want a short haul people mover you choose the seven barrel short span, low thrust, no sharklet option and don't take any of the extra tank options.

I can only imagine what a nightmare this project would be to certify and test but perhaps with the advancements made in modelling and testing, unmanned etc there is scope for doing some of the testing of the various combinations unmanned which would radically speed up the process and reduce costs which might make it something worth looking at by Airbus.

Another advantage the concept could be that (as Boeing suggested on the 7E7 originally) that if you wanted to you could switch engine choices easily just by changing the actual donks and making some changes in the thrust management software which is common to both engine offerings. The concept as I see it could take it a step further and make the fuel tank and wingtip device options modular so airlines (and lessors) can change them as they wish.

They wont do anything that might impact resale asset values etc but making them more customisable can only help in this I'd have thought.

I think this mirrors what we see in other industries, where OEMs of everything from cars to houses to PCs to fast food burgers are focused on increasing customisation options to increase appeal to customers. If you can have your F-150 in seventy different possible iterations and can have your Whopper the way you want it, then why not your airplane? If you think about it, Airbus has been on this path for a while - in the 100-240 seat market from A220 to A321Neo-LR you have a huge number of possible specs and range/capacity options designed to ensure that the customer gets exactly the bird they need. Logic dictates that having two programmes to cover this (very broad) section of the market isn't optimal and in future they are likely to get as much more out of the A321NEO and then concentrate on the A220 programme with a view to making it all things to all men in the NB market. That being the case and with the knowledge that the smaller end of the WB market is equally fragmented in terms of who wants what and for where etc then a common mid-level WB solution to cover as many of these possible iterations as possible makes sense.

You have the A220 family covering the NB section once the A320 family has been retired.
You have the A350 family cover the high end WB market.

Sitting in the middle of those is a very wide market segment - this "Lego Jet" concept would be designed from the ground up to cover it all.

Its easy to see the appeal for the airlines and lessors. Question is, can Airbus bring this "Lego" concept to market? Or is the testing and certification requirement just too great? Can it actually be done?
 
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keesje
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Tue Aug 20, 2019 8:13 am

lightsaber wrote:
keesje wrote:
An option discussed in the past was to use the fuselage, cockpit and systems of the A330NEO replacing the wing box, wings, engines, landings gears with a light composites wing (box) and the latest engine for a MTOW of 160t and OEW of 80t, 40t (!) lower than an A330. For lower capacity-range flights. We know it's possible :wink2:

Image

Those systems wouldn't save 40t.

New engines are always heavier. Higher temperature requires thicker material. Higher pressure requires a thicker casing (pressure vessel). There isn't a way to save 40t as you described.

I know Airbus is working to remove 1000kg from landing gear. A CFRP wing and wingbox would save 6t.

I could remove 7t. New engines add back 1.5 to 2 tons. Greater wingspan to enable underside laminar flow with folding wingtips adds back 2t, but save 7% in fuel burn net. New electric subsystems add 1 to 2 tons but save 3% fuel burn net. Where are you coming up with these numbers?

New material body can save weight, but I didn't see that. It requires new structural design to save weight.

Lightsaber


It said it's possible, because it's in operation for the last 35 years.

Like you I'm making assumptions based on current technology, but took the 79t A310 as a starting point.

The medium range, shorter A310-200 has an OEW of 79t, the long haul, longer A330-200 has a OEW of 120t.

Image

As you say, new engines would be heavier, but the CF6-80C/PW4000 were "oversized" for th A310.

The wing box / wing, landing gears can be made a few tons lighter compared to the early eighties A310 technology level.

Next to that, the A310-200 is shorter than the A332, the tail surfaces could be reduced too.

Image
Airbus A310 Polaris, OEW 81t.

I was doing some quick explorations on an A330 based NMA yesterday. Two versions, the shorter being able to go 5000NM with a 30t payload, a 15% seat capacity stretch trading payload for range.

Asian operators would love it for it's strong LD3/pallet cargo capabilities.

Industrially, the cockpit fuselage, systems, assembly would be based on A330 supply chain in TLS (and Tinajin). New wing, wingbox, pylons, landing gear would e open for competion, maybe BBD Ireland Shorts could offer a Brexit friendly solution. Engineering wold stil be mostly Airbus UK. No doubt 3-4 contenders (& their governments) would be willing to bid for that.
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Amiga500
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Tue Aug 20, 2019 1:13 pm

I think the next new program will be a (wide) single aisle.

IMO it will cover the 180-280 seat market up to 5500 nm.

A221 ~130 seats, ~3500nm
A223 ~160 seats, ~3300nm
A225 ~190 seats, ~3000nm

A361 ~ 180 seats, ~5500nm
A363 ~ 220 seats, ~5000nm
A365 ~ 280 seats, ~4500nm
[Seat counts above are single class. They might build the above with two wingset and 3 fuselage options for airlines to tailor to optimum payload-range for their operations, in which case the ranges are gonna be well off]

A359 ~ 330 seats, ~8000nm
A35k ~ 380 seats, ~9000nm
[Seat counts are 2-class. Excludes ULR variants]


It is possible they build a tight 8AB. But, since I'm pessimistic Boeing can fit the MoM into the current marketplace, I cannot see how it becomes much easier for Airbus. Although, one thing in their favour would be any sales would be more likely coming from the other manufacturer than their own [i.e. an Airbus sale is likely a 787 sale lost, whereas for Boeing, a MoM sale is likely a... 787 sale lost].

Anywayz the A330neo is too new and RR would not be a happy camper at chucking a billion at the T7000 and Airbus cutting program life to a few years - so add that to no new technology giving a paradigm shift for single aisle* - there will be no new program in the near future.


*Next steps that I can see are:
- Carbon NanoFibre infused resins will be the next step in composite materials.
- Acceptance of Additive Layer Manufacturing on large Principle Structural Elements by regulators.
- Out of autoclave curing for large components (already evident on MS-21).
- Maturing of Hybrid Laminar Flow to TRL sufficient for for a program to rely on it for performance - probably limited to non-lifting surfaces.
- Lite-Hybrid electric aircraft which have wheel motors/regen braking sufficient to taxi aircraft from runway to stand on batteries/APU. Same for reversing off stand using APU/ground charged batteries.
- Variable Pitch fan blades removing weight/complexity of thrust reverser and further optimising the propulsive cycle.

I don't think we'll see:
- Hybrid electric aircraft where the One Engine Inoperative scenario receives a boost from batteries, too soon for that IMO.
- Distributed Propulsion
- Propfans
- Blended Wing Bodies
- One/No pilot operations
 
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keesje
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Tue Aug 20, 2019 3:25 pm

Amiga500 wrote:
I think the next new program will be a (wide) single aisle.

IMO it will cover the 180-280 seat market up to 5500 nm.

A221 ~130 seats, ~3500nm
A223 ~160 seats, ~3300nm
A225 ~190 seats, ~3000nm



That would mean getting rid of a lot of cargo pallets / business and luggage container automation for many global airlines around 150-175 seat aircraft, the center of the NB market. Serious job creation & cargo stream shifts..

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Amiga500
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Tue Aug 20, 2019 3:28 pm

keesje wrote:
That would mean getting rid of a lot of cargo pallets / business and luggage container automation for many global airlines around 150-175 seat aircraft, the center of the NB market. Serious job creation & cargo stream shifts..


The LD3-45s can be reused on A360 (and on whatever Boeings single-aisle replacement is) and if needs be, new containers made for A220 (which might also fit the 737).

You aren't gonna give up millions per year in fuel burn per aircraft for 30/40 years vs. the competition just for the sake of not changing containers.
 
144modeller
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Tue Aug 20, 2019 5:19 pm

Until late 1972, there was no such thing as a (flying) Airbus. Suddenly we had the A300 (the first widebody twin), and within 16 years there were the A310 and A320. Now, Lockheed and McDD airliner production lines have gone, leaving Airbus and Boeing as the major players. This thread concerns the future of airliners, so it is relevant to note that the A220 started an excellent product of a much smaller company. We shouldn't forget Embraer either.
I doubt whether those fitting RR Avons to the Comet in the 1950's could imagine the massive power plants that would hang under the B777.

It is not out of the question for something we can't yet foresee, to change everybody's plans.
 
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ODwyerPW
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Tue Aug 20, 2019 5:48 pm

i heard from a pilot friend that airbus was going to enter the business aviation sector...

all kidding aside.... for Airbus, the future for the next decade or more is stretches of existing models:

a mild A220 stretch (A220-500).. This will allow the A220 series to cover everything from A318-A320. Maybe do some cantilevered main gear (ala 737-10) for tail strike prevention.

a minor A320 stretch (to reach the fabled A320.5) and a decent A321 stretch (to reach the fabled A322). Let's call them A320-300, A322-300.... They will be re-winged, stabilizer too. Some aero clean-up. Technology will be adopted by an A321-300 that retain it's current length, a right-sized aircraft.

a minor A350 stretch (to reach A350-1100 or A350-2000 or A350-8000 whatever you are calling it) to really own the 400pax space.

A322 to A359 will have a gap. let Boeing spend 12billion trying to fill it...just continue to offer A330NEO in this space.. or customers down to the A322 or up to the A359.

Pardon my armchair strategic planning of a multi-national conglomerate's product line for the next 15 years. Little arrogant of me, no?
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Elementalism
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Tue Aug 20, 2019 6:59 pm

keesje wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
keesje wrote:
An option discussed in the past was to use the fuselage, cockpit and systems of the A330NEO replacing the wing box, wings, engines, landings gears with a light composites wing (box) and the latest engine for a MTOW of 160t and OEW of 80t, 40t (!) lower than an A330. For lower capacity-range flights. We know it's possible :wink2:

Image

Those systems wouldn't save 40t.

New engines are always heavier. Higher temperature requires thicker material. Higher pressure requires a thicker casing (pressure vessel). There isn't a way to save 40t as you described.

I know Airbus is working to remove 1000kg from landing gear. A CFRP wing and wingbox would save 6t.

I could remove 7t. New engines add back 1.5 to 2 tons. Greater wingspan to enable underside laminar flow with folding wingtips adds back 2t, but save 7% in fuel burn net. New electric subsystems add 1 to 2 tons but save 3% fuel burn net. Where are you coming up with these numbers?

New material body can save weight, but I didn't see that. It requires new structural design to save weight.

Lightsaber


It said it's possible, because it's in operation for the last 35 years.

Like you I'm making assumptions based on current technology, but took the 79t A310 as a starting point.

The medium range, shorter A310-200 has an OEW of 79t, the long haul, longer A330-200 has a OEW of 120t.

Image

As you say, new engines would be heavier, but the CF6-80C/PW4000 were "oversized" for th A310.

The wing box / wing, landing gears can be made a few tons lighter compared to the early eighties A310 technology level.

Next to that, the A310-200 is shorter than the A332, the tail surfaces could be reduced too.

Image
Airbus A310 Polaris, OEW 81t.

I was doing some quick explorations on an A330 based NMA yesterday. Two versions, the shorter being able to go 5000NM with a 30t payload, a 15% seat capacity stretch trading payload for range.

Asian operators would love it for it's strong LD3/pallet cargo capabilities.

Industrially, the cockpit fuselage, systems, assembly would be based on A330 supply chain in TLS (and Tinajin). New wing, wingbox, pylons, landing gear would e open for competion, maybe BBD Ireland Shorts could offer a Brexit friendly solution. Engineering wold stil be mostly Airbus UK. No doubt 3-4 contenders (& their governments) would be willing to bid for that.



It is amusing how Airbus had what is rumored to be the short widebody 797 40 years ago. The A310 was really a good MOM plane back in the day.
 
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reidar76
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Tue Aug 20, 2019 7:27 pm

ODwyerPW wrote:
for Airbus, the future for the next decade or more is stretches of existing models


I fully agree with you. Existing models will be upgraded and stretched. But you didn't answer the question in the OP: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

I think Airbus' next clean sheet will be an ATR replacement. The ATR turboprop is a joint venture with Leonardo, Final assembly, flight testing etc. is done in Toulouse. It is a early 1980s design, but is hanging on due to little competition. The ATR turboprop has a range of 400 to 800 nm, and can carry approximately 50 to 70 passengers (1 class), depending on model.

By utilizing the very latest innovations in modern, lightweight CFRP for both fuselage and wings, and the latest in mono-wing design with true laminar flow, the emissions can be significantly lower than a 737/E-jet/A220/A320. Climate change will force the industry to be more sustainable. I envision more environmental regulations and taxes, and aircraft that are optimized for very low emissions will have a great advantage in the market.

Turboprops already have a significant lower fuel burn than jet aircraft. I can also envision that the smallest ATR replacement variant could be fully electric (batteries or hydrogen fuel cells) to create a zero emissions aircraft. I live in a country where more than 50 % of new cars now is powered by batteries, and where airports are planning infrastructure for possible electrically powered aircraft. There will be significant government subsidies in order to combat climate change. I also think that such a clean-sheet will be the first commercial aircraft where the co-pilot will be an advanced autopilot, utilizing artificial intelligence.

Airbus was first with a twin-engined widebody, first in eliminating the flight engineers position, first with a fly-by-wire system on a passenger aircraft. The precursor to Airbus developed the only certified, supersonic passenger aircraft (Concorde), and Airbus designed and manufacture the worlds largest passenger aircraft (A380). Though the two latter never where successful commercially, they where major engineering achievements.

I think Airbus can design and manufacture a successful, small, short haul, fully electric aircraft, where the co-pilot is a computer, and by doing so create a more sustainable industry.
 
UpNAWAy
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Tue Aug 20, 2019 8:02 pm

Image


The Airlander.........
 
strfyr51
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Tue Aug 20, 2019 8:31 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
Unless the 797 lands a couple thousand orders in the first couple years Airbus may not need to do anything. Improving profit margins, increasing production capability and building up a war chest for whatever it needs to do next may be a good strategy. If the 797 looks like a major winner Airbus still needs to follow that strategy, but has time to re-wing the 320 to gain another step advantage over the 737. The next set of narrow body planes optimized for 500 miles or so is likely to be some sort of hybrid, and would wipe out the value of an expensive NSA.

the Next set of Narrow body airplanes will be optimized to fly US Transcon of 2900-3200 NM. Heck even the RJ's can now fly 1000 Mi. So that 500 Mi? Is Moot!
 
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Tue Aug 20, 2019 9:01 pm

Let's see what Airbus had to say about its next clean-sheet aircraft. That was early 2017:

No one can be quite sure how the next generation of aircraft wing will be. It may be shaped differently or assembled in a new way. It could be made of composite or advanced metallic materials. However, one thing is for sure: with aircraft production rates set to ramp up significantly, wings will need to be faster, easier and cheaper to make and assemble.


https://www.airbus.com/newsroom/news/en/2017/01/Wings-of-the-future.html

More recently, FlightGlobal was reporting the following:
Although Airbus has not yet launched a replacement for its A320 family, the manufacturer appears keen to employ a carbonfibre wing on any future single-aisle aircraft. Sue Partridge, head of the Wing of Tomorrow programme, told FlightGlobal in April that the goal is for the primary wing structure to be made from carbonfibre, while individual components may be manufactured from advanced metallic or thermoplastic composite materials.


Partridge’s brief is to develop a production approach that will reduce the manufacturing cost for a composite single-aisle wing to match that of the metal wing on today's A321. Additionally, the system will need to support output of 60 aircraft per month within two years of a programme launch – “the critical bit of the target”, she notes – and be capable of reaching rate 100 at a later stage.


https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/cost-reduction-central-to-airbus-future-wing-program-458152/

My take is that the next mostly clean sheet Airbus aircraft will be an A320 replacement probably centered around the A321 capacity, let's say 200/230/260 pax. The 110-180 segment would be covered by the A220.

Personally, I'm a big fan of the double fuselage concept. A double 5-ab fuselage could cover the 240-320 capacity segment on short haul operations (say 2000nm range). The main change that I would introduce compared to the sketches provided in the Airbus patent would be to make the right fuselage slightly longer than the left one so that the right fuselage can be connected to a jet bridge on its left hand side. This would ease the terminal integration of such an aircraft.

http://www.freepatentsonline.com/8157204.pdf
 
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CarlosSi
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Tue Aug 20, 2019 10:37 pm

What would constitute as "clean-sheet"? New fuselage? Re-wings and re-engines obviously don't cut it.

As much as I'd like to see an a220-500, I have to wonder how much that would increase the TOW by, decrease its range (being unable to carry as much fuel), and what would be done to increase its current MTOW to make room for such a stretch. I'm sure they'd get plenty of orders right away if they announced the a225.

I think the closest thing to needing a clean-sheet is the a330 neo, but it's barely entering service. The a350 is a little older as far as EIS goes. I realize the 737 wasn't a good base to upgrade the engines because of low-clearance, but how much can the a320 be re-engined before it's time to start brand new?
 
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Wed Aug 21, 2019 1:20 am

I don't think we'll see a 10+ abreast VLA soon from Airbus.
The A320 also still has plenty of life in it (new wings/engines and maybe a cockpit update)
The A220 and A350 are set for the coming decades.

But the A330neo is a dud. It's way too large and heavy for it's class and role. The 787 is mopping the floor and Airbus needs to respond to that with a 21th century plane. I can see it land in the 2027-2030 timeframe, probably around the same time both the A320 and A350 receive neo's/updates.

Airbus has all the pieces in place for a killer product line ten years from now. I'm doubtful Boeing can pull off both the NSA, NMA and a 787X around that timeframe. The 777X would also be in need of an upgrade around then.
 
moa999
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Wed Aug 21, 2019 3:31 am

I see the next gen possibly being windowless other than doors and emergency exits

Replace all the windows with next gen screen strips (a bit like EKs fake window in their new First suites).

Enables you to drastically change fuselage design taking out weight and probably giving better noise and temperate insulation.

While you could trial it on existing aircraft, you wouldn't get the full benefit till you redesign the fuselage
 
Sokes
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Wed Aug 21, 2019 4:43 am

keesje wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
keesje wrote:
... A330NEO ... for a MTOW of 160t and OEW of 80t, 40t (!) lower than an A330. For lower capacity-range flights. ...


Those systems wouldn't save 40t.
...
I know Airbus is working to remove 1000kg from landing gear. A CFRP wing and wingbox would save 6t.
...
Lightsaber


...
The medium range, shorter A310-200 has an OEW of 79t, the long haul, longer A330-200 has a OEW of 120t.
...
The wing box / wing, landing gears can be made a few tons lighter compared to the early eighties A310 technology level.

Next to that, the A310-200 is shorter than the A332, the tail surfaces could be reduced too.
...
I was doing some quick explorations on an A330 based NMA yesterday. Two versions, the shorter being able to go 5000NM with a 30t payload, a 15% seat capacity stretch trading payload for range.
...


I think Lightsaber missed your "MTOW of 160 t" statement. Also you need to be more precise. The first post sounded as if you want to keep A330-200/ -300 length. Even in your second post your "15% seat capacity stretch" sounded as if it refers to A330. I also got confused.

While I'm nor qualified enough to make reliable statements, I chip in with some rough assumptions. I used German Wikipedia for A310. I believe the A330 OEW in Wiki may be confused with empty weight. I used A330 OEW from http://www.team.aero/images/aviation_da ... e_A330.pdf
Nice link for A330: https://leehamnews.com/2018/03/20/airbu ... at-market/

A310-200: length: 46,7 m, span: 43,9 m, OEW: .80 t, MTOW: 157 t, MTOW-OEW: .77 t, fuel capacity: ..55.200 l, range 3.600 nm, max. 240 passenger
A310-300: length: 46,7 m, span: 43,9 m, OEW: .83 t, MTOW: 164 t, MTOW-OEW: .81 t, fuel capacity: ..75.470 l, range 5.200 nm, max. 240 passenger

A330-200: length: 58,8 m, span: 60,3 m ,OEW: 121 t, MTOW: 242 t, MTOW-OEW: 121 t, fuel capacity: 139.090 l, range 7.250 nm, max. 404 passenger
A330-300: length: 63,7 m, span: 60,3 m ,OEW: 126 t, MTOW: 242 t, MTOW-OEW: 116 t, fuel capacity: 139.090 l, range 6.350 nm, max. 440 passenger

The wing of A310 is only 43.9 m. I assume a 160 t MTOW plane would get at least a 51 m span.
(see viewtopic.php?t=761459 for gate sizes.)

Do you have rather a 47 m or 59 m long plane length in mind? You spoke of a 15% seat capacity stretch. I assume you mean A310 + 15%.
In this case 90t OEW and 170t MTOW and a 52 m wing for a 52 m long plane may do. It would sit max. 280 passengers. If one keeps the 55.000 l fuel capacity of A310-200, maybe one can reach 5000nm. I just wonder if the OEW of 90t is enough. I might be a few tons off.

Alternative:
What about a 60m carbon wing for 210 t MTOW? The original wing was designed with MTOW and fuel requirement of A340 in mind.
110 t OEW, 210t MTOW and 84.000 l fuel (=60% of now). Similar plane like A330-200 (58,8 m) and a shortened 55m version, but cruise speed reduced from 870 km/h to 830 km/ h for short/ medium range flights with carbon wing designed for that speed.
212t was the MTOW of A330-300 when it entered service. At that time it was considered not enough range. But at that time there was no pilot shortage, but a shortage of planes with high range. Today's wide-bodies all have huge range and there are not enough pilots.

I assume depending on pilot availability and oil/ CO2 price in 10 years such planes may or may not sell well.
I never thought of it before, but I like your idea.

A shorter plane needs bigger tail surfaces. However as Boeing will use the same tail surface for B787-8 as well as B787-10, it probably doesn't matter much.

To Lightsaber: Good info. Thanks
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
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Erebus
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Wed Aug 21, 2019 5:03 am

XSB wrote:
I don't think we'll see a 10+ abreast VLA soon from Airbus.
The A320 also still has plenty of life in it (new wings/engines and maybe a cockpit update)
The A220 and A350 are set for the coming decades.

But the A330neo is a dud. It's way too large and heavy for it's class and role. The 787 is mopping the floor and Airbus needs to respond to that with a 21th century plane. I can see it land in the 2027-2030 timeframe, probably around the same time both the A320 and A350 receive neo's/updates.

Airbus has all the pieces in place for a killer product line ten years from now. I'm doubtful Boeing can pull off both the NSA, NMA and a 787X around that timeframe. The 777X would also be in need of an upgrade around then.


This is from Airbus's last global market forecast (haven't found an updated one for 2019 yet). Source.

I think gives a good starting point in understanding their needs over the next couple of decades and maybe beyond.

Image

The problem area as I see is the mid-sized long range category. They position A350 as L-XL and the A330neo in the M category. M category represents the second largest by market size and value. And I see the A330neo as being insufficient in capturing a big chunk of this. There is a bit of a grey area as some of them overlap each other but they can't be the most effective solution. Unless they are willing to cede almost the entirety of this territory to the 787, I do believe they need a new more efficient replacement to fill in the role of the A330neo.
 
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SierraPacific
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Wed Aug 21, 2019 5:38 am

moa999 wrote:
I see the next gen possibly being windowless other than doors and emergency exits

Replace all the windows with next gen screen strips (a bit like EKs fake window in their new First suites).

Enables you to drastically change fuselage design taking out weight and probably giving better noise and temperate insulation.

While you could trial it on existing aircraft, you wouldn't get the full benefit till you redesign the fuselage


With all of the things that break on commercial airliners that are put on the minimum equipment list, count me out on an airplane that doesn't have physical windows that cannot be opened. I couldn't imagine a 14-hour flight with that system broken being stuck in a dark tube.

Talk about claustrophobic :lol:
 
moa999
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Wed Aug 21, 2019 6:16 am

SierraPacific wrote:
count me out on an airplane that doesn't have physical windows that cannot be opened. ..
Talk about claustrophobic


No different to a typical overnight flight where the FAs ensure all the shutters are down, or set automatically to dark on the 787.

Didn't say it would be popular with passengers, but it's got a lot of benefits for the efficiency of the aircraft
 
Lufthansa
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Wed Aug 21, 2019 7:23 am

keesje wrote:
rjsampson wrote:
keesje wrote:
Maybe a lean 1.5 aisle A300/A310/A330 replacement for up to 300 passengers single class.


Very nice rendering, keesje, and I'm inclined to agree with you. By the way, what do you mean by 1.5 aisle?

Especially as PM points out:

PM wrote:
The A330neo won't last forever and it's a big jump from the A321 to the A350. Just saying...


Assuming Boeing eventually does get around to producing a 797 family: Do you think it would encompass enough variants to perform missions from the A321XLR and all the way up to all variants of the A330NEO?

Should such a thing come to pass: Perhaps there is a business case for that being the next clean-sheet Airbus aircraft?


A 1.5 aisle (30 inch) could make it possible for passengers to pass each / trolleys other during boarding/ deboarding and inflight.


It could offer the option to have twin aisles 1-2-1 direct aisle access in front, for a premium cabin.

Comfort would be boosted by wider seats, additional armrests, the spacey aisle and bigger bins compared to e.g. the 9 abreast 787.

A shorter variant with more range would be accompanied by a high capacity version trading range for payload.

Image



This is it we have a winner. Basically a more practical style narrow body and widened stretch of the A321 to give it
757-300 like capacity but a new wing and more powerful engines. The program could also put the wing on the A321LR, making it
an A321ULR. It would probably be able to easily to routes like JNB to Europe, or MAD to GRU. And would be popular for Euro charter
carriers. Given the market numbers aren't that great airbus probably has the upper hand here but right now they have no need to
invest, the 321LR is doing the job.
 
WIederling
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Wed Aug 21, 2019 7:39 am

XSB wrote:
......... But the A330neo is a dud. It's way too large and heavy for it's class and role. The 787 is mopping the floor and Airbus needs to respond to that with a 21th century plane. ...........


Boeing is fighting A330NEO tooth and nail ( and checkbook... and actually from the get go in 2004 "to kill the A330 for good" )
Murphy is an optimist
 
JonesNL
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Next clean sheet Airbus: A32x successor

Wed Aug 21, 2019 9:37 am

Based on reports and info from Airbus representatives it looks like the next clean sheet will be the successor of the A32x. The reasoning behind this is that they have forecasted that the small airliner market will be 54% $3.2 trillion of the total commercial passenger airliner market in the next 20 years. This gives them a lot of incentive to make sure they are in the lead in that segment. Source

Image

The reports from Airbus representatives was in 2017.Source:

No one can be quite sure how the next generation of aircraft wing will be. It may be shaped differently or assembled in a new way. It could be made of composite or advanced metallic materials. However, one thing is for sure: with aircraft production rates set to ramp up significantly, wings will need to be faster, easier and cheaper to make and assemble.


More recently, FlightGlobal was reporting the following.Source:
Although Airbus has not yet launched a replacement for its A320 family, the manufacturer appears keen to employ a carbonfibre wing on any future single-aisle aircraft. Sue Partridge, head of the Wing of Tomorrow programme, told FlightGlobal in April that the goal is for the primary wing structure to be made from carbonfibre, while individual components may be manufactured from advanced metallic or thermoplastic composite materials.


Partridge’s brief is to develop a production approach that will reduce the manufacturing cost for a composite single-aisle wing to match that of the metal wing on today's A321. Additionally, the system will need to support output of 60 aircraft per month within two years of a programme launch – “the critical bit of the target”, she notes – and be capable of reaching rate 100 at a later stage.


From a logical stand point this frame should start above a possible A220-500 180pax and also be able to have some overlap with the middle of the market segment to phase out the A330neo and make the life of the upcoming 797 difficult. The question is what will we see and what are the things we won't see.

Credits: most of this info I copy pasted from comments of tomcat and Erebus. I thought it deserved an seperate thread.
 
ITSTours
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Re: Next clean sheet Airbus: A32x successor

Wed Aug 21, 2019 9:51 am

So no A320 neoneo? :P
 
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keesje
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Re: Next clean sheet Airbus: A32x successor

Wed Aug 21, 2019 10:00 am

I think Airbus is in the lead in the NB segment. Sales, backlogs, forecasts andupgrade potential of current types seem to confirm that.

Even if you ignore the current MAX drama. It seems there is no need to develop a new NB soon:
- A220 can take care of the smaller less efficient A318, A319, 737-7 replacement markets
- A320 cross section has the dimensions for reasonable cabin flexibility and cargo
- A320 has clearance to use higher bypass, more quiet and efficient engines
- A320 has further development potential in terms of A320 and A321 strteches, meeting evolving market demand.

Image
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
VSMUT
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Re: Next clean sheet Airbus: A32x successor

Wed Aug 21, 2019 10:06 am

JonesNL wrote:
From a logical stand point this frame should start above a possible A220-500 180pax and also be able to have some overlap with the middle of the market segment to phase out the A330neo and make the life of the upcoming 797 difficult. The question is what will we see and what are the things we won't see.


Disagree. The A220-500 is too limited. Not enough cargo volume in the belly for one. They would sacrifice a lot of customers that way.

The A220-500 and A320-replacement should be positioned close, but with the A220-500 catering to the lower end of the market with a shorter range. The A320 successor should be sized slightly above with around 190-200 seats, but with greater performance and cargo volume. A direct A321 successor would be a natural part of the family. Bigger question would be a 757-300/A322 sized aircraft, and how much range you could squeeze out of such a plane.
 
JonesNL
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Re: Next clean sheet Airbus: A32x successor

Wed Aug 21, 2019 10:31 am

keesje wrote:
I think Airbus is in the lead in the NB segment. Sales, backlogs, forecasts andupgrade potential of current types seem to confirm that.
......
.......


Although you are right at this very moment but even if they announce the new A32x tomorrow, it will take until 2027-28 for the bird to be in full service. At that moment the A32x line will be based on a 40 year old frame. One can make the easy conclusion that there is significant improvements possible with new tech. So, my guess is that they are going to announce it in 2021 and introduce it around 2029-2030. By then the Ultrafan concept of RR should also be mature. My guess is that it should be an 30% improvement over the current A32x and MAX line.
 
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keesje
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Re: Next clean sheet Airbus: A32x successor

Wed Aug 21, 2019 11:13 am

JonesNL wrote:
keesje wrote:
I think Airbus is in the lead in the NB segment. Sales, backlogs, forecasts andupgrade potential of current types seem to confirm that.
......
.......


Although you are right at this very moment but even if they announce the new A32x tomorrow, it will take until 2027-28 for the bird to be in full service. At that moment the A32x line will be based on a 40 year old frame. One can make the easy conclusion that there is significant improvements possible with new tech. So, my guess is that they are going to announce it in 2021 and introduce it around 2029-2030. By then the Ultrafan concept of RR should also be mature. My guess is that it should be an 30% improvement over the current A32x and MAX line.


I think overall efficiency of aircraft is largely determined at this stage by fuel efficiency (engines, wings), operating cost (flexibility, MRO, standardization, labor) over the aircraft life time. Improving those without reinventing an aircraft ($15B) has been the dominant strategy over the last 30 years. Dismantling the A320 supply chain / operational infrastructure while surrecting a new one is something responsible people try to push past their retirement.. :scared: Not doing so can be real bad also though, ask Muilenburg.. :scared: It's a :scared: :scared: industry, love it :wink2:
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
JonesNL
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Re: Next clean sheet Airbus: A32x successor

Wed Aug 21, 2019 11:25 am

keesje wrote:

I think overall efficiency of aircraft is largely determined at this stage by fuel efficiency (engines, wings), operating cost (flexibility, MRO, standardization, labor) over the aircraft life time. Improving those without reinventing an aircraft ($15B) has been the dominant strategy over the last 30 years. Dismantling the A320 supply chain / operational infrastructure while surrecting a new one is something responsible people try to push past their retirement.. :scared: Not doing so can be real bad also though, ask Muilenburg.. :scared: It's a :scared: :scared: industry, love it :wink2:


Well, I think the lesson that can be learned by the MAX problems is that you can't ride too long on the same bird. And another note is that Airbus always has been less reluctant to invest in a new frame.
A300 was barely 30 years old when retired
They jumped on the A220 while they still have the A319
The A380 was a huge investment and right after that they did the A350XWB

Dismantling the A320 supply chain / operational infrastructure while surrecting a new one is something the adventurers and engineers of our time surely want on their resume!
 
Babyshark
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Wed Aug 21, 2019 11:54 am

Supposedly the Airbus standard by 2025 will be the 350 cockpit in all fleets. I guess 220 as well, that way it's actually graduates from an RJ to an Airbus. It really needs to be gutted to help bring up its reliability, it's not just engines and poor quality control at the FAL that hurt it on the line here at Delta, it's the design.

Drop the 225 talk. That thing has massive holes in logic given length, cargo and performance. which is why it has 0 orders and 320N has 4000.

That said, the 787 is awesome-ish compared to 767 but you wonder if the lesson learned was go clean up the 767 to 2020 standard? I mean unless you're going for the flying wing an airplane is going to look like an airplane. Just make adjustments to the 320 that make the ROI incredible vs clean sheet.

And why would you make a move knowing Boeing is backed into a coffin corner? See what they do first.
Last edited by Babyshark on Wed Aug 21, 2019 12:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Amiga500
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Re: Next clean sheet Airbus: A32x successor

Wed Aug 21, 2019 12:01 pm

JonesNL wrote:
One can make the easy conclusion that there is significant improvements possible with new tech.


Really? :?

I had a post ready to go into the other thread, but now its merged to this, I'll rehash.

As I said above in this thread, there are a number of technologies that are either entering use or approaching the TRL maturity necessary for use on programme.

1. Carbon NanoFibre infused resins will be the next step in composite materials.
2. Acceptance of Additive Layer Manufacturing on large Principle Structural Elements by regulators.
3. Out of autoclave curing for large components (already evident on MS-21).
4. Maturing of Hybrid Laminar Flow to TRL sufficient for for a program to rely on it for performance - probably limited to non-lifting surfaces.
5. Lite-Hybrid electric aircraft which have wheel motors/regen braking sufficient to taxi aircraft from runway to stand on batteries/APU. Same for reversing off stand using APU/ground charged batteries.

Of the above, (1) is in the Su-57 (PAK-FA), (2) is on non PSEs already and (3) is extensively used on MS-21.

Any single-aisle replacement will need 4 & 5 as well. Probably even other things that I haven't mentioned - things like folding wingtips maybe.

If it doesn't nail everything possible, then a retrofit of new engine onto an existing airframe as well as changing various part manufacturing methods will see the end DOC benefit not being sufficient to justify the investment.

A new program must offer at least a 5% DOC benefit relative to an upgraded alternative to be sure of its business case. That equation didn't add up in 2010 and it doesn't add up now. It won't add up in 2025 either. It might add up in 2030.
Last edited by Amiga500 on Wed Aug 21, 2019 12:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Wed Aug 21, 2019 12:01 pm

Instead of doing a clean sheet design, perhaps they can revive the A380neo like discussed in the thread below.
viewtopic.php?t=603309&start=50

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