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rjsampson
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Mon Aug 26, 2019 7:42 pm

HP69 wrote:
I have insider info that the next Airbus clean-sheet will be the A390. It will replace the A380 and will be a 3-5-3 seating configuration for a 3-class capacity of about 450.


Are you being facetious? Is there a substantial demand for an A380 replacement? Or are you serious?

Seems like the market has spoken on VLAs and if my understanding: It's less about the A380 and 74-8 having 4 engines, than the lack of demand for the aircraft. I'm sure there would be a certain niche for it (*cough* Emirates *cough*), but would such an aircraft be able to sell enough frames to recoup the massive cost of development? And what sort of behemoth engine is on the drawing board (anywhere), that would be necessary to power such an aircraft? I have extremely strong doubts...

Not to mention what a nightmare 3-5-3 would be for those seated in such a configuration. I would be very surprised if that's what AB is cooking up as their next clean sheet design. Of course: I've been wrong before. Care to elaborate?
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triple3driver
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Mon Aug 26, 2019 8:05 pm

JamesCousins wrote:
JonesNL wrote:
The A330 will be phased out as it is already lacking orders. So, I thinkl the line-up will be as follows...


I can't say I agree with this, and feel people get far too caught up in the whole A330neo is dead rhetoric. Has it been as successful as the 787? No. Have airlines overall regarded it as an inferior product? Yes. But it's got large orders from Delta, Virgin (top up and options seemingly very likely from VS/DL), TAP, Garuda and of course the 100 frame order from AirAsia X. While the AirAsia X order isn't as stable as say that from DL given their tendency to renegotiate and convert commonly, they'll still take a very large number of frames that may even exceed the 100 mark. I think it's in it for the long run, and could become a bit of a quiet cash cow like it's predecessor the A330 given the very low comparative development costs when looking at it and the 787 ($2bn vs $32bn).


Let us not forget how poor of a seller the A330 originally was, with the A340 and 777 stealing the show during the 90s, and that orders for the Classic 777 and A340 dried up once more capable A330s with higher MTOWs and more range came onto the scene, as well as the fact that over 800 of 777 orders were for the 77W, a frame far larger than the A330/A340 and the 777 Classic.

Obviously circumstances are different now, the 787 and A350 are much more formidable compared to the 777 Classic and A340, but still, as more A330s are parked next decade the NEO will find it's place. It probably won't have 4 figure sales numbers but it'll be a reasonable success, certainly no A340NG that's for sure
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workhorse
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Mon Aug 26, 2019 9:21 pm

CFRPwingALbody wrote:
For a cfrp folding wing for the A32X is that a clean sheet or a product development?


It's a bit of a philosophical question. Is the 757 a clean sheet design or a development of the 737? After all, it has the same cross section, the same configuration, but a longer fuselage, different wing and engines, different landing gear and different nose section.

CFRPwingALbody wrote:
Afaik Airbus has plans for CFRP wings and center wingbox, but they are not folding.


I think the question is: can Airbus afford NOT doing this? Fitting into C gates multiplies the market by 3 (at least).

CFRPwingALbody wrote:
There is one problem for folding wingtips on a Airbus. There hasn't been a European (military) aircraft with folding wings.


Well, when they did the A300, there wasn't a European widebody. And when they did the A320, there wasn't a European (actually any) fly by wire airliner. And when they did the Concorde....
 
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Revelation
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Mon Aug 26, 2019 9:42 pm

triple3driver wrote:
Obviously circumstances are different now, the 787 and A350 are much more formidable compared to the 777 Classic and A340, but still, as more A330s are parked next decade the NEO will find it's place. It probably won't have 4 figure sales numbers but it'll be a reasonable success, certainly no A340NG that's for sure

Meanwhile, Leeham ( https://leehamnews.com/2019/08/26/airbu ... r-a330neo/ ) says:

(An A330) production rate cut seems inevitable in the near future

And asks:

Why keep the A330neo in the product line?

I'm not sure what to make of this.

In the context of this thread, it may suggest the middle of the market is where Airbus needs to aim its next clean sheet.
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rjsampson
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Mon Aug 26, 2019 9:48 pm

workhorse wrote:

It's a bit of a philosophical question. Is the 757 a clean sheet design or a development of the 737? After all, it has the same cross section, the same configuration, but a longer fuselage, different wing and engines, different landing gear and different nose section.


I think you answered your own question. You basically described the 757 as an entirely different aircraft from the 737. (Different wings, engines, landing gear, nose)... You also missed: Different philosophy, different fuel systems, different hydraulics, different cockpit, different empennage, different avionics... I could go on.

In no appreciable way are those two products similar, outside of the same cross-section. By that logic, you could say that the 757 is a development of the 707 or 727.

Of course it's a clean sheet design.
"..your eyes will be forever turned skyward, for there.." yeah we know the DaVinci quote. But GA is so dang expensive these days! :(
 
petertenthije
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Mon Aug 26, 2019 10:36 pm

I think that Airbus won't be releasing clean-sheet designs till Boeing shows their hand with the MOM.

For the time being Airbus will be busy modifying the A220 series. Initially redesigning to simplify production and supply-chain, longer term new versions such as stretches, shrinks, longer range, higher payload etc.

Perhaps some design elements of the A220 might be transferred over to the A320 series? I am not that familiar with the A220, but I would imagine that it has plenty of advanced tech that might be usefull on the rest of the Airbus line-up.
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workhorse
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Mon Aug 26, 2019 10:47 pm

rjsampson wrote:
I think you answered your own question. You basically described the 757 as an entirely different aircraft from the 737. (Different wings, engines, landing gear, nose)... You also missed: Different philosophy, different fuel systems, different hydraulics, different cockpit, different empennage, different avionics... I could go on.


Same goes for the hypothetical Airbus new narrowbody I've described up there. Same cross section but new (folding) wing, new engines, new nose section (and thus, new cockpit), new landing gear... I guess the systems will have to be redesigned as well. But using the same cross section will provide huge advantage. Imagine, a new airplane enters service but there's already 4 FALs up and running full steam!

rjsampson wrote:
By that logic, you could say that the 757 is a development of the 707 or 727.


Well, Tupolev once managed to sell the Tu-134 as an "update" of the Tu-124. "Yes, Mr Khrushchev, of course it's the same airplane, we just moved the engines to the back for less noise!"
 
ewt340
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Tue Aug 27, 2019 12:32 am

Although, could they just use the basic for A330 design and then replicated them with composite fuselage and newer technology instead of wasting tons of money on developing new aircraft?

So Basically it's gonna be A330 neo-nfo?
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Tue Aug 27, 2019 3:34 am

Revelation wrote:
Meanwhile, Leeham ( https://leehamnews.com/2019/08/26/airbu ... r-a330neo/ ) says:

(An A330) production rate cut seems inevitable in the near future

And asks:

Why keep the A330neo in the product line?

I'm not sure what to make of this.

In the context of this thread, it may suggest the middle of the market is where Airbus needs to aim its next clean sheet.

100% their next cleansheet will be a MOM sitting halfway between the A321XLR and the A350-900. A tight 8ab with moderate length and 6000nm range is likely.
 
JamesCousins
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Tue Aug 27, 2019 9:48 am

RJMAZ wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Meanwhile, Leeham ( https://leehamnews.com/2019/08/26/airbu ... r-a330neo/ ) says:

(An A330) production rate cut seems inevitable in the near future

And asks:

Why keep the A330neo in the product line?

I'm not sure what to make of this.

In the context of this thread, it may suggest the middle of the market is where Airbus needs to aim its next clean sheet.

100% their next cleansheet will be a MOM sitting halfway between the A321XLR and the A350-900. A tight 8ab with moderate length and 6000nm range is likely.


Sounds a lot like you're describing an A388 with reduced range... Can't see a desire for Airbus to invest there. Something 6 abreast with 1 isle or 7 abrest with 2 isles seems more likely to me (a 767 esk layout)
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RJMAZ
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:17 am

JamesCousins wrote:
Sounds a lot like you're describing an A388 with reduced range... Can't see a desire for Airbus to invest there. Something 6 abreast with 1 isle or 7 abrest with 2 isles seems more likely to me (a 767 esk layout)

Reducing range allows for a lower takeoff weight. That means a smaller wing, less thrust and lighter landing gear is required if you want it to remain fully optimised. Fuel burn per mile would improve as the aircraft is optimised for shorter range.

For example here is how the weights and dimensions would roughly scale if the same fuselage tube was used but everything else was optimised for a certain range.

A330-800
8150nm range = 251t MTOW, 129t OEW, 465m2 wing, 72,000lb thrust.

7000nm range = 220t MTOW, 110t OEW, 370m2 wing, 65,000lb thrust. 5% fuel burn improvement per mile.

6000nm range = 190t MTOW, 95t OEW, 310m2 wing, 60,000lb thrust. 10% fuel burn improvement per mile.

5000nm range = 160t MTOW, 80t OEW, 250m2 wing, 55,000lb thrust. 15% fuel burn improvement per mile.

Now Engine tech might take 20 years to improve fuel efficiency by 15% that same gain can be made by optimising for shorter range. You'll notice most aircraft the empty weight is roughly half of the MTOW.

The A330 cross section is probably a little too big. It gets used in 9ab by many airlines. Obviously a cleansheet with a tight 8ab would be ideal to hit the halfway point between the A321 and A350-900.

Airbus could use the A330-800 cross section and fuselage again for their MOM. Lets start with the 5000nm version listed above with the 160t MTOW and 58m fuselage length. They could do a second shorter version say 53m long with range pushing 6000nm. Basically both of these models would be 10% larger than the two 797 models with 10% greater range. A repeat of how the A330 sat above 767.
 
Armadillo1
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:26 am

i believe a-net still more close to real word than this insane numbers.

338 wing area 370m2, not 465 as of A350

(skipped)
 
sciing
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:32 am

workhorse wrote:
My :twocents: .
The next Airbus aircraft will have the fuselage cross section of the A320 in order to be assembled on the existing 32S lines.
It will have a longer fuselage than the A321 (somewhere between the 757-300 and the DC8-60).
It will have a new composite wing that will have a significantly bigger span than the 32S family but will fold at the 36m mark to fit into code C gates.

Strange, I doubt that the cross section is limited by the lines, but not wing span and length!
 
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seahawk
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Tue Aug 27, 2019 11:01 am

I think the indications are growing that it will be a A330 replacement. Probably more like an A300-600R than an A330. I mean if you look at the A300-600R and imagine engines that burn 30% less fuel, it already looks surprisingly competitive.
 
Armadillo1
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Tue Aug 27, 2019 11:08 am

30% is a ambitious goal, deifference between 321neo and 757 less in total, not by engines only
 
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Tue Aug 27, 2019 11:42 am

RJMAZ wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Meanwhile, Leeham ( https://leehamnews.com/2019/08/26/airbu ... r-a330neo/ ) says:

(An A330) production rate cut seems inevitable in the near future

And asks:

Why keep the A330neo in the product line?

I'm not sure what to make of this.

In the context of this thread, it may suggest the middle of the market is where Airbus needs to aim its next clean sheet.

100% their next cleansheet will be a MOM sitting halfway between the A321XLR and the A350-900. A tight 8ab with moderate length and 6000nm range is likely.


I'm thinking such an aircraft could have a capacity of around 250-300, 6500-6000nm range. A narrowbody A321 replacement (upgrade?) can come between 200-250 seats, under 5000 nm range. Not more than 2 variants for each category. A re-engined A350 family would be positioned above these, while the bottom end will be covered by the A220 series. This would be a very comprehensive line-up going into the 2030s.
 
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Tue Aug 27, 2019 11:48 am

seahawk wrote:
I think the indications are growing that it will be a A330 replacement. Probably more like an A300-600R than an A330. I mean if you look at the A300-600R and imagine engines that burn 30% less fuel, it already looks surprisingly competitive.


Is it viable for Boeing to launch NMA right into that space and steal Airbus' thunder?

Tight 8AB rather than the silly 7 idea purported on here. Typical pax config range of around 5000nm.


Or is that far too close to 787?
 
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keesje
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Tue Aug 27, 2019 11:48 am

There are 1500-1600 A330/340 out there that need to be replaced sooner or later.

Of those, most where ordered after the 787 was offered.

What percentage of those do we feel will be replaced by NEO's?

strongpoints of the 787 vs the NEO seem matched by weakpoints..
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LH526
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Tue Aug 27, 2019 12:13 pm

COMPACT, light, twin aisle short-medium range A300 replacement.
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ewt340
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Tue Aug 27, 2019 1:37 pm

LH526 wrote:
COMPACT, light, twin aisle short-medium range A300 replacement.


Yeah, sounds the most logical one. B787-8 have kill A330-800neo. Airbus need to reclaim the 250 seats market that are dominated by A330-200 back in the day.

Maybe A310 and A330-200 replacement in the same family?
 
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seahawk
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Tue Aug 27, 2019 2:49 pm

Nobody really wants an A310 replacement.
 
Amiga500
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Tue Aug 27, 2019 3:02 pm

seahawk wrote:
Nobody really wants an A310 replacement.


Is NMA not a very similar product to A310?
 
moa999
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Tue Aug 27, 2019 3:04 pm

ewt340 wrote:
B787-8 have kill A330-800neo. Airbus need to reclaim the 250 seats market that are dominated by A330-200 back in the day.


321XLR pushes into this territory.
And possible 322 for shorter seatcount.. just don't see the $s in the gap for Airbus.
 
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BaconButty
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Tue Aug 27, 2019 3:20 pm

CFRPwingALbody wrote:
There hasn't been a European (military) aircraft with folding wings. Thus this technology is very immature for Airbus.
Boeing was permited to develop folding wings by the US DOD. Cleansky only funded a small uav to test folding wings.

Not for a while, but folding wings were introduced by Shorts on Biplanes. There's the Buccaneer, Super Entendard and Gannet to name 3.
Down with that sort of thing!
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Tue Aug 27, 2019 4:53 pm

BaconButty wrote:
CFRPwingALbody wrote:
There hasn't been a European (military) aircraft with folding wings. Thus this technology is very immature for Airbus.
Boeing was permited to develop folding wings by the US DOD. Cleansky only funded a small uav to test folding wings.

Not for a while, but folding wings were introduced by Shorts on Biplanes. There's the Buccaneer, Super Entendard and Gannet to name 3.


Yes, just a few days ago

Buccaneer - first flight April 1958
Super Entendard - first flight Oct 1974
Gannet - first flight 1949

But the folding wing mechanism is not technically complicated, far simpler than the main landing gear. An actuator, a hinge, and a positive locking system. Flaps on the bigger widebodies probably have more force and are in moving tracks, far more tricky. I am sure the Boeing 777x has left a trail in public docs on the FAA/EASA certification requirements.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Tue Aug 27, 2019 6:07 pm

Amiga500 wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Nobody really wants an A310 replacement.


Is NMA not a very similar product to A310?


No, as it would not have to make do with the fuselage of the A300. In the end the A310 is the result of airliners willing to trade capacity for range as the A300 could not deliver the desired range. On the other hand if you want to have the same capacity you might be better served with 7 abreast, but that also comes with its own disadvantage. Considering the success of the A321 and the real option for a A322 I think Airbus has no need to go that small. I think it would be more something around 52m between the original B1 and the B2 and then a stretch to about A332 length. The longer version with slightly above 5300nm range and the shorter around 6300-6500nm.
 
tealnz
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Wed Aug 28, 2019 12:16 am

Amiga500 wrote:
Is it viable for Boeing to launch NMA right into that space and steal Airbus' thunder? Tight 8AB rather than the silly 7 idea purported on here. Typical pax config range of around 5000nm.

Doesn't that mean you lose the advantage of a hold that takes two abreast LD3s? I thought that was a biggie for Asian carriers.
 
ewt340
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Fri Aug 30, 2019 2:28 am

moa999 wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
B787-8 have kill A330-800neo. Airbus need to reclaim the 250 seats market that are dominated by A330-200 back in the day.


321XLR pushes into this territory.
And possible 322 for shorter seatcount.. just don't see the $s in the gap for Airbus.


Sorry, 250 seat count with 2 class configurations with the latest business class products. Not a single class configuration. A322 could only carry around 200-220 passengers at the same configurations.

I also mean range-wise, it would fly between 6500nmi - 7000nmi like A330-200.

While Airbus done well with A350-900 and A330-900neo. A330-800neo have been slow seller. Compared this to B787-8 order, Airbus need to work on this problem.
 
ewt340
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Fri Aug 30, 2019 2:31 am

seahawk wrote:
Nobody really wants an A310 replacement.


Boeing also said nobody needs B757. Look at them now.

Besides, A310 & A330-200 would be a good combo. Both came from the same family trees. 8 Abreast configurations which allowed for LD3 container and better efficiency compared to B797's 7 abreast configurations. It's not a shrink version which mean that fuel efficiency would be good.

Airlines would abandoned B797 because the A310 and A330-200 replacement combo would be more beneficial.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:06 am

ewt340 wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Nobody really wants an A310 replacement.


Boeing also said nobody needs B757. Look at them now.

Besides, A310 & A330-200 would be a good combo. Both came from the same family trees. 8 Abreast configurations which allowed for LD3 container and better efficiency compared to B797's 7 abreast configurations. It's not a shrink version which mean that fuel efficiency would be good.

Airlines would abandoned B797 because the A310 and A330-200 replacement combo would be more beneficial.


There is a 13m length difference between a A310 and a A332, if you want to make this as 2 versions of the same model, the shorter once either becomes too heavy and too long ranged or the longer one will lack range. The A310 was also a bit too chubby
 
ewt340
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Sat Aug 31, 2019 3:43 pm

seahawk wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Nobody really wants an A310 replacement.


Boeing also said nobody needs B757. Look at them now.

Besides, A310 & A330-200 would be a good combo. Both came from the same family trees. 8 Abreast configurations which allowed for LD3 container and better efficiency compared to B797's 7 abreast configurations. It's not a shrink version which mean that fuel efficiency would be good.

Airlines would abandoned B797 because the A310 and A330-200 replacement combo would be more beneficial.


There is a 13m length difference between a A310 and a A332, if you want to make this as 2 versions of the same model, the shorter once either becomes too heavy and too long ranged or the longer one will lack range. The A310 was also a bit too chubby


It's actually 12.16m not 13m. But I guess it make sense, too much length differences, the most extreme one are 10.13m differences in length between B777-200 and B777-300.

One one of the reason I recommended it is because A300-600 capacity are way too similar to A330-200. Around 15-20 seats differences between the 2.

I guess a longer variants of A310 around 49-50m would works better.

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