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Amiga500
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Fri Nov 15, 2019 8:37 pm

keesje wrote:
Technically possible but I've never seen any innitiative from Airbus in that direction.


I know there were studies and research done ~10 years ago. I can only assume they've been ongoing since.

Obviously they never pulled the trigger then - but they will be continually updating the separate concepts at a high level. If one makes enough sense to justify investment, it'll gets pushed to formal program.
 
Sokes
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Sat Nov 16, 2019 5:37 am

keesje wrote:
Sokes wrote:
As Boeing is a bit busy at the moment, maybe Airbus could do the NMA ?


Business logic would suggest not. Existing backlogs are well filled.



I made a joke. However a joke should have some truth to it, isn't it?


keesje wrote:

Reducing the NMA gap from below might seem easier than from above.. introducing a real 250 seater (single class, 30-31 inch pitch)



Is 97 t MTOW of A321Neo (OEW 50 t) meant to be used regulary or is it meant for regular TOW of 80 - 85 t with an occassional 97 t flight?
I don't think 35 m wing is good enough for regular 100 t. If your proposed plane gets a 45 m wing for slow and efficient cruise I'm with you.


FluidFlow wrote:
If I would be at Airbus I would develop a new Wing (47m Span) and winbox for a 52m long A330-500neo. Might need a new Tail. Get a new engine with lower thrust (55'000-60'000). Make sure it can be build on the same line as the current A330neo.



I agree. But why not use the full 52 m which gates allow for the wing?
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
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keesje
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Sat Nov 16, 2019 11:05 am

Sokes wrote:

Is 97 t MTOW of A321Neo (OEW 50 t) meant to be used regulary or is it meant for regular TOW of 80 - 85 t with an occassional 97 t flight?
I don't think 35 m wing is good enough for regular 100 t. If your proposed plane gets a 45 m wing for slow and efficient cruise I'm with you.



MTOW of 101t is sold for the XLR. Wings are beefed up, new flaps and a new large, lighter space saving fueltank are the main attributes. Those could be used on a same MTOW A322 too, trading weight for range.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... ng-458994/
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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seahawk
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Sat Nov 16, 2019 11:23 am

And it will come, with Hangar 245 now running (and presented to the public) it is obvious that they are planning a longer A322 variant.
 
T4thH
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Sat Nov 16, 2019 12:35 pm

seahawk wrote:
And it will come, with Hangar 245 now running (and presented to the public) it is obvious that they are planning a longer A322 variant.

Sorry to say, but this is not so obvious. Yes, there is enough space for something like a A329 and not only aA321 or the putative A322....Hangar 245 is the former production line place for the A380 in Hamburg Finkenwerder, So no one has to be surprised, that there is NOW a little bit more space as needed! In former times, it was just enough space for the produced jet in Hangar 245...
 
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seahawk
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Sat Nov 16, 2019 12:48 pm

Considering how they always mention the new flexibility when it comes to fuselage lengths and how easy it would be to add another version on the new more robotic line, I think the idea seems to be there already.
 
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keesje
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Sun Nov 17, 2019 9:57 pm

T4thH wrote:
seahawk wrote:
And it will come, with Hangar 245 now running (and presented to the public) it is obvious that they are planning a longer A322 variant.

Sorry to say, but this is not so obvious. Yes, there is enough space for something like a A329 and not only aA321 or the putative A322....Hangar 245 is the former production line place for the A380 in Hamburg Finkenwerder, So no one has to be surprised, that there is NOW a little bit more space as needed! In former times, it was just enough space for the produced jet in Hangar 245...


I think Airbus didn't do the new fuel system, flaps, landing gear, slat and stuctural modifications just for the A321XLR. I think a future moderate stretch is part of the investment business case. An A322 has been under consideration for more than 20 years. But at that stage the range reduction was seen as un attactive. That issue seems solved by the MTOW/Fuel capacity/ engine efficiency improvements since then.

A further stretch of the A321, unofficially dubbed the A322, to rival Boeing's extended 757-300 has been studied, but seems unlikely to go ahead. "I don't think there will be a stretch of the A321: it would simply trade range for payload," says Brown.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/airbus-supplement-a320-family-28463/
https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=334787#p3905665
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tomcat
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Sun Nov 17, 2019 10:30 pm

keesje wrote:
Sokes wrote:

Is 97 t MTOW of A321Neo (OEW 50 t) meant to be used regulary or is it meant for regular TOW of 80 - 85 t with an occassional 97 t flight?
I don't think 35 m wing is good enough for regular 100 t. If your proposed plane gets a 45 m wing for slow and efficient cruise I'm with you.



MTOW of 101t is sold for the XLR. Wings are beefed up, new flaps and a new large, lighter space saving fueltank are the main attributes. Those could be used on a same MTOW A322 too, trading weight for range.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... ng-458994/


What is interesting with the XLR is that if it would be operated on a regular basis near its 101t MTOW, that would mean that it would operate long flights (8 to 10 hours or so) regularly. It would then operate just 2 flights per day or say, a mere 1000 flights a year. Being based on a plane designed for 80000 flight cycles or more, I'm wondering if the XLR really needs much beefing up. The beefing up could be limited to some critical structural parts, while other parts might be just fine as is by trading flight cycles for higher operating loads. In terms of maintenance as well, an aircraft designed for a high number of flight cycles should do well in the long run when operating on a 2 flights a day basis.
 
FluidFlow
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Mon Nov 18, 2019 6:12 am

Sokes wrote:

FluidFlow wrote:
If I would be at Airbus I would develop a new Wing (47m Span) and winbox for a 52m long A330-500neo. Might need a new Tail. Get a new engine with lower thrust (55'000-60'000). Make sure it can be build on the same line as the current A330neo.



I agree. But why not use the full 52 m which gates allow for the wing?


I do not think it will need 52m span if it is intended to only fly up to 5000-6000nm. Safe the weight of the bigger wings to be more competitive on trips from 2000nm to 3000nm.

keesje wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:
If I would be at Airbus I would develop a new Wing (47m Span) and winbox for a 52m long A330-500neo. Might need a new Tail. Get a new engine with lower thrust (55'000-60'000). Make sure it can be build on the same line as the current A330neo.

Might cost $5B to develop but it would help bring costs for the A330 line down, as there would be certain commonality and an increase to 10 per month would be possible. Selling 1000 of the -500neo would result in 5m R&D cost per frame. That is at the moment no problem for Airbus.


Technically possible but I've never seen any innitiative from Airbus in that direction.
Leahy used to refer to A310 sales (255) as example of how small the market segment would be..
Of course it was 35 yrs ago.. It could maybe shave 20-30t of the empty weight.


That is true but the A330 was so much more advanced over the A310, and as far as I remember there was also no commonality (also for the crew) so it was an either or decision for airlines. Transferred to now, when you could interchange pilots from the A330neos to a possible 330-700 (or 500 or what ever) it would be very attractive.

Delta wants anyway a new NMA aircraft and I bet you could place it also to a lot of other Airbus customers and probably win some others over to go to the A330 family instead of a possible Boeing NMA/787 fleet, especially if Boeing can not make the business case for the NMA. For them it is a clean sheet design costing a lot. For Airbus it would be going back the path of improving a tube (From A300 to A310 to A330/340). It would be cheaper and therefore easier to make it worth it.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Mon Nov 18, 2019 6:15 am

No, it would not. A optimized plane of A300 size, would be a totally new plane. At best it would share a cross section with the A330, but that would be it from a design perspective.
 
FluidFlow
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Mon Nov 18, 2019 6:28 am

seahawk wrote:
No, it would not. A optimized plane of A300 size, would be a totally new plane. At best it would share a cross section with the A330, but that would be it from a design perspective.


Why would a new wing and a shorter fuselage with a new engine be a new aircraft? The NG got a new wing and a new enginge and was still a 737, the 777X is still a 777 even with a new wing and engine. So taking the A330-800neo shorten it with a new wing and engine will still be part of the A330 family and share a lot of commonality but it would be an A330neo optimized for shorter routes compared to the bigger brothers with 7000nm+ range
 
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seahawk
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Mon Nov 18, 2019 6:42 am

Because the fuselage would be way too heavy for the plane, as the structure is designed for the weight of the A339 and a MoM would have to be considerably lighter.
 
FluidFlow
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Mon Nov 18, 2019 7:02 am

seahawk wrote:
Because the fuselage would be way too heavy for the plane, as the structure is designed for the weight of the A339 and a MoM would have to be considerably lighter.


Not if it is cheap. You can have a less efficient aircraft if you can buy it for less. The total cost is way more important than one single metric. And on top of that, Airbus is really good in their weight watchers department if you look through the history of their aircraft.

If Airbus can produce an A330-700 for $60m and sell it for $70m it would be a great MoM aircraft no matter if it is "too heavy". With an OEW of 100t and MTOW 200t you have capable aircraft for a cheap development price and offering commonality with the rest of the A330 family.

I also think an OEW of 70-80t would be better but the investment needed is massive, in the development of the aircraft and the production systems (my estimate is $5bn for A330-700 vs $30bn for a clean sheet).

And on top of that if you keep the heavy parts of the bigger A330 you will have a really good freighter platform. Make sure maximum landing weight stays roughly the same as for the -900 with around 170t (I think it is 185t for the -900). The possible payload for the -700 would be massive.
 
StudiodeKadent
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Mon Nov 18, 2019 9:48 am

Pure speculation on my part. But here's my suggestion:

Airbus's strongest programs are the A321neo/LR/XLR, the A220, and the A350. Their weakest program which they still have is the A330neo.

In addition, whilst Airbus and Boeing are a duopoly, they're a "monopolistic duopoly." They sort of trade market segments, and apart from workhorse narrowbodies (A320/737) they tend not to make close substitutes for the planes from the other manufacturer. This is the rational thing for them to do, because it allows both manufacturers to maximize the monopoly rents for each of their products (other than the workhorse narrowbodies, but even then there is a degree of non-overlap... the A320 is smaller than the 737-8 for example).

Boeing's next project is going to be the MoM. I think even after the MAX groundings, they wouldn't want to risk totally killing the MAX off prematurely. They've still got >4000 planes on that production line. So Boeing will do the MoM next.

Airbus, therefore, will NOT be developing a MoM jet next. Indeed the A321LR/XLR already captures the lower end of that market, so they have SOME market penetration in it already.

This is why I think the next clean-sheet Airbus will develop will be an A330neo replacement, aimed at replacing the 787 family. Obviously I don't think Airbus will jump into developing this right away.

I speculate the "A360" (tentative name) will be as follows:
A360-800: 245pax at about 13800km to 14000km (design-shrink of the optimized base model, replaces 787-8s and long-range use of the A330-200/A330-800)
A360-900: 285pax at about 14500km (optimized base model, replaces 787-9s and could even replace A330-900neos, particularly the 251t ones)
A360-1000: 325pax at about 12000km to 12500km (simple stretch of the -900, replaces 787-10s and does similar missions to classic A330-300s but is one size category above)

I also suspect an 8-abreast cross-section in Economy, using A220-grade seating (18.5" aisle/window seats, 19" middle seats, 2" armrests). This is also very well-suited for 7-abreast Premium Economy and 1-2-1 Business Class.

The result would be an highly flexible family of mid-size-long-haul jets with substantial passenger comfort and commonality, that would supersede the 787 family and replace the A330neo to a meaningful degree. Since the MoM looks like it will cover mid-haul uses of A330s, making a longhaul-oriented jet will avoid direct competition and continue to accelerate the trend of fragmentation/point-to-point travel.

But will Airbus jump into doing this quickly? Nope. Not when the A321 is selling so well, the A350 is about to benefit greatly from the 777 replacement cycle, and the A220 is showing fantastic potential (particularly for an additional stretch).
 
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keesje
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Tue Nov 19, 2019 6:06 pm

If Airbus would go for a low cost new bigger wing NB for the NMA segment, various lenghts, cargo variants could be part of the project. No 45k lbs engines in sight though..

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tealnz
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Wed Nov 20, 2019 1:31 am

Amiga500 wrote:
keesje wrote:
Technically possible but I've never seen any innitiative from Airbus in that direction.


I know there were studies and research done ~10 years ago. I can only assume they've been ongoing since.

Obviously they never pulled the trigger then - but they will be continually updating the separate concepts at a high level. If one makes enough sense to justify investment, it'll gets pushed to formal program.


The key debate seems to be whether the A300/310 fuselage is inherently too draggy and too heavy even with new CFRP wing, wing box, new gear and systems. Do you have any sense of whether the studies you refer to came to a conclusion on that point?

seahawk wrote:
Because the fuselage would be way too heavy for the plane, as the structure is designed for the weight of the A339 and a MoM would have to be considerably lighter.


Fuselage cross-section would be identical. New wing/wingbox/gear would be stressed for the much lower weight – they would be much lighter. We are talking A300/310 type OEWs.
 
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keesje
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Wed Nov 20, 2019 7:59 am

tealnz wrote:
Amiga500 wrote:
keesje wrote:
Technically possible but I've never seen any innitiative from Airbus in that direction.


I know there were studies and research done ~10 years ago. I can only assume they've been ongoing since.

Obviously they never pulled the trigger then - but they will be continually updating the separate concepts at a high level. If one makes enough sense to justify investment, it'll gets pushed to formal program.


The key debate seems to be whether the A300/310 fuselage is inherently too draggy and too heavy even with new CFRP wing, wing box, new gear and systems. Do you have any sense of whether the studies you refer to came to a conclusion on that point?

seahawk wrote:
Because the fuselage would be way too heavy for the plane, as the structure is designed for the weight of the A339 and a MoM would have to be considerably lighter.


Fuselage cross-section would be identical. New wing/wingbox/gear would be stressed for the much lower weight – they would be much lighter. We are talking A300/310 type OEWs.


I don't think the fuselage, cockpit and tail section are heavy. It's the A330/340 wing, wingbox, landing gear and all supporting structure that adds a lot of empty weight.

Replacing that could easily shave 30t of the empty weight of a A330. We know because it has been flying for 35 years :wink2:

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seahawk
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Wed Nov 20, 2019 8:22 am

Really where did a light A330 fly? Or to be more exact please tell me how many precent of A330 fuselage parts are equal to A300 fuselage parts and can be interchanged between the 2.
 
Amiga500
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Wed Nov 20, 2019 10:19 am

tealnz wrote:
The key debate seems to be whether the A300/310 fuselage is inherently too draggy and too heavy even with new CFRP wing, wing box, new gear and systems. Do you have any sense of whether the studies you refer to came to a conclusion on that point?


Unfortunately I only had visibility of systems at that time.


The 8AB cross section is ideal. Certainly structurally more efficient than 7AB, and error of margin similar in terms of wetted area (including nose/tail) to 7AB for ~300 passengers @31" pitch (with the 8AB solution having a last row of 7AB into the fuselage taper). The 8AB can also take much more cargo than 7AB.

I reckon (from Roskam) that the fuselage could reduce to an overall length of ~35m and still be aerodynamically "in the drag bucket". 38x rows (37 @8AB, 1 @7AB - all 31" pitch) would give you a rough overall length of 43m, so easily around the optimum fineness ratio.

A 300 passenger 8AB does mean a ~3.5m shorter fuselage (c.f. 7AB), so say half that will affect the tail volume ratio. Horizontal tail area scales linearly with moment arm from tail to aero centre, but also is inversely proportional to wing area - so that more weight efficient fuselage comes back to help you. What you gain in one, you probably loose in the other.

The 8AB is much better if you want to stretch - you don't really want to shrink (either 7AB or 8AB as then your approaching the 6AB competitors which will always beat you).
 
Amiga500
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Wed Nov 20, 2019 10:22 am

seahawk wrote:
Really where did a light A330 fly? Or to be more exact please tell me how many precent of A330 fuselage parts are equal to A300 fuselage parts and can be interchanged between the 2.


Wise up - you are usually much more subtle than this.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Wed Nov 20, 2019 11:26 am

Amiga500 wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Really where did a light A330 fly? Or to be more exact please tell me how many precent of A330 fuselage parts are equal to A300 fuselage parts and can be interchanged between the 2.


Wise up - you are usually much more subtle than this.


I do not get the point to be honest, why you would stick with the old fuselage. The A350 construction method is so much more advanced and efficient, the A350 nose design is less draggy and with the new wing, wingbox, MLG and so on, you are doing 75% of a new plane anyway, so why not do it right? If Boeing really had to drop the 797 (which I believe they had to) Airbus already has the options to cover that "Middle of the Market" with their existing products and new variants of them. (A322)

But if you really want to do a successor to the A330 and maybe take it back to max 6000nm range and more focussed on medium haul, you better do it right and do a new fuselage using new construction methods and materials in the process. In the end you would want to optimize the whole design for easier production and more automated production, so that you increase your margin even if selling at a lower price point. You need a plane that will be valid on the market for 3 decades at least.
 
FluidFlow
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Wed Nov 20, 2019 11:47 am

seahawk wrote:
Amiga500 wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Really where did a light A330 fly? Or to be more exact please tell me how many precent of A330 fuselage parts are equal to A300 fuselage parts and can be interchanged between the 2.


Wise up - you are usually much more subtle than this.


I do not get the point to be honest, why you would stick with the old fuselage. The A350 construction method is so much more advanced and efficient, the A350 nose design is less draggy and with the new wing, wingbox, MLG and so on, you are doing 75% of a new plane anyway, so why not do it right? If Boeing really had to drop the 797 (which I believe they had to) Airbus already has the options to cover that "Middle of the Market" with their existing products and new variants of them. (A322)

But if you really want to do a successor to the A330 and maybe take it back to max 6000nm range and more focussed on medium haul, you better do it right and do a new fuselage using new construction methods and materials in the process. In the end you would want to optimize the whole design for easier production and more automated production, so that you increase your margin even if selling at a lower price point. You need a plane that will be valid on the market for 3 decades at least.


I would not call it a successor as it is more a side grade. And why the old fuselage? Keep the costs down. The only thing to make the business case for a MoM is a cheap price. For that you need low R&D costs and low production costs. That is probably also why Boeing can not close the business case for a clean sheet MoM. $30B$ investment for a new MoM can not be recovered when your competitor can get to the same result by spending $5bn.

The fact that Airbus could do it and "revive" the A300/310 by shortening the fuselage and add a new wing + engine and this for a cheap price and with existing production facilities makes it really risky for Boeing to go all out on the MoM.

Airbus should just trigger it anyway, they do not have to but it would be great if they would just do it.
 
Amiga500
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Wed Nov 20, 2019 12:07 pm

seahawk wrote:
I do not get the point to be honest, why you would stick with the old fuselage.


The point you were making upstairs that I objected to would appear to be that there is no guarantee that a shrunk 8AB A330 fuselage could be built for approximately the same weight as the A300 fuselage.



Whether you build the fuselage out of composites is a good question - on one hand, CFRP is better at handing fatigue cycles, but on the other, not so good w.r.t "ramp rash"*.

CFRP isn't a magic bullet either. Al-Li fuselage are extremely competitive weight wise and may be cheaper to work with**.

*Carbon NanoFibres (CNF) within the resin offers some pretty strong possibilities for improving impact damage resistance of composite. Also helps with thermal springback.

**or may not, an out-of-autoclave cured (OOC) structure with CFRP stiffeners as well as skin offers some real exciting possibilities in terms of structural mating. They could be bonded via curing. No stress concentrations from fasteners. No riveting machines necessary. [this applies to wings & H-stab/V-stab as well as fuselage]


If it were me... if I could have CNF resins and OOC - then it'd definitely be a CFRP fuselage. If I could have neither, it'd probably be Al-Li. If it were only one or the other. Dunno.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Wed Nov 20, 2019 12:27 pm

seahawk wrote:
Really where did a light A330 fly? Or to be more exact please tell me how many precent of A330 fuselage parts are equal to A300 fuselage parts and can be interchanged between the 2.


The A330 fuselage is simply a stretched A300 fuselage, strengthened to carry up to 275 t MTOW (A340), with a much bigger wing, bigger MLG, bigger engines and so on.

When one would do a A300 or A310 sized frame, one would not shorten the A330 fuselage, but go straight back to the A300/310 fuselage, MLG and so on. Moving that to an full FBW means taking the A330 cockpit. If one goes to all electro hydraulic actuators as being tested in an A320 test frame you get right away a weight reduction over the old A300/310 with throwing out the hydraulics. The A380 went for high pressure hydraulics for weight reduction. Than look at the effort of moving to 3D printed parts since the demise of the A300/310, you find them all over Airbus frames today..
The next step would be expensive, a CFRP wing and wingbox. If that is done with a comparable A300/310 sized wing, more span without increasing the area, you have the next weight reduction. Keep to bleed and the frame stays light.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Wed Nov 20, 2019 12:38 pm

Amiga500 wrote:
seahawk wrote:
I do not get the point to be honest, why you would stick with the old fuselage.


The point you were making upstairs that I objected to would appear to be that there is no guarantee that a shrunk 8AB A330 fuselage could be built for approximately the same weight as the A300 fuselage.


That depends on how we define fuselage. Sure you can keep the diameter, but one must not forget that outside the nose section the A330 still differs structurally from the A300, even though it is based on the fuselage of the A300.

You know as well as I do, that aircraft design is not Lego and if you want to do it right you might only end up with the nose (Airbus does have 2 better designs now) and the fuselage barrel plugs as re-useable. The central fuselage needs to change with a new wingbox / MLG and depending on how short you want to go, you might need a bigger tail (again Airbus has 2 better designs in production) as well.

But the biggest part imho, is that you want to use new materials and optimize for modern production.
 
Sokes
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Wed Nov 20, 2019 2:16 pm

FluidFlow wrote:

That is probably also why Boeing can not close the business case for a clean sheet MoM. $30B$ investment for a new MoM can not be recovered when your competitor can get to the same result by spending $5bn.



Why 30 billion $? I don't think Boeing would repeat the mistakes of the B787. Also not much innovation planned.
When was the last time a plane designed without major innovations? We speak about a DC-10, not a Tristar.

"After a development process that cost US$5.4 billion to December 2015, including a US$3.2 billion writeoff, the smallest model in the series, the 110-125 seat CS100 received initial type certification from Transport Canada on 18 December 2015."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbus_A2 ... ht_testing

How much does one have to add for losses from early frames?
I guess anywhere between 10-20 billion $ should do for the MoM plane.
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
JonesNL
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Wed Nov 20, 2019 2:34 pm

Spend $10-20 billion for a speculated total market of around 3000 birds in 20 years or spend that money on a FSA to replace a tainted program with the certainty of selling +10.000 pieces in 20 years?
I know where I would place my bet...
 
FluidFlow
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Wed Nov 20, 2019 2:35 pm

Sokes wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:

That is probably also why Boeing can not close the business case for a clean sheet MoM. $30B$ investment for a new MoM can not be recovered when your competitor can get to the same result by spending $5bn.



Why 30 billion $? I don't think Boeing would repeat the mistakes of the B787. Also not much innovation planned.
When was the last time a plane designed without major innovations? We speak about a DC-10, not a Tristar.

"After a development process that cost US$5.4 billion to December 2015, including a US$3.2 billion writeoff, the smallest model in the series, the 110-125 seat CS100 received initial type certification from Transport Canada on 18 December 2015."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbus_A2 ... ht_testing

How much does one have to add for losses from early frames?
I guess anywhere between 10-20 billion $ should do for the MoM plane.


I dont know but everyone here speaks about a tight light ovoid fuselage with twin aisle but single aisle economy.

That is not a simple thing to do:

the ovoid fuselage means new forms of stress and a lot of R&D to keep it light. Light means a lot of optimization and planning otherwise you have the 787 fiasco again. To get single aisle economy means low production cost what translates in new innovative production systems.

The overall costs for the 787 were actually in the range of $45B, initially it is estimated that the deferred production costs were close to $30B + $15B development costs. That was over 10 years ago. So with inflation and price increases minimum would be $20B for R&D but if Airbus launches a cheap competitor then Boeing will have to sell initially at a loss and will ramp up deferred production costs again of at least $10B. Hence at least $30B.
 
morrisond
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Wed Nov 20, 2019 2:39 pm

FluidFlow wrote:
Sokes wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:

That is probably also why Boeing can not close the business case for a clean sheet MoM. $30B$ investment for a new MoM can not be recovered when your competitor can get to the same result by spending $5bn.



Why 30 billion $? I don't think Boeing would repeat the mistakes of the B787. Also not much innovation planned.
When was the last time a plane designed without major innovations? We speak about a DC-10, not a Tristar.

"After a development process that cost US$5.4 billion to December 2015, including a US$3.2 billion writeoff, the smallest model in the series, the 110-125 seat CS100 received initial type certification from Transport Canada on 18 December 2015."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbus_A2 ... ht_testing

How much does one have to add for losses from early frames?
I guess anywhere between 10-20 billion $ should do for the MoM plane.


I dont know but everyone here speaks about a tight light ovoid fuselage with twin aisle but single aisle economy.

That is not a simple thing to do:

the ovoid fuselage means new forms of stress and a lot of R&D to keep it light. Light means a lot of optimization and planning otherwise you have the 787 fiasco again. To get single aisle economy means low production cost what translates in new innovative production systems.

The overall costs for the 787 were actually in the range of $45B, initially it is estimated that the deferred production costs were close to $30B + $15B development costs. That was over 10 years ago. So with inflation and price increases minimum would be $20B for R&D but if Airbus launches a cheap competitor then Boeing will have to sell initially at a loss and will ramp up deferred production costs again of at least $10B. Hence at least $30B.


They have been doing the R&D for over 10 years by now on a tight light 7W. They probably have it figured out how to build it efficiently.

The stresses can be minimized by using half a circle on top and say about 1/3 of a larger diameter circle on the bottom.
 
Amiga500
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Wed Nov 20, 2019 2:56 pm

morrisond wrote:
They have been doing the R&D for over 10 years by now on a tight light 7W. They probably have it figured out how to build it efficiently.

The stresses can be minimized by using half a circle on top and say about 1/3 of a larger diameter circle on the bottom.


So your floor beams are loaded in significant compression (buckling mode) and the frames are under severe stress concentration where they meet the floor beams?

Nice.


There is no easy wide ovoid solution. Its only the PowerpointRangers that insist otherwise.
 
FluidFlow
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Wed Nov 20, 2019 2:58 pm

morrisond wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:
Sokes wrote:

Why 30 billion $? I don't think Boeing would repeat the mistakes of the B787. Also not much innovation planned.
When was the last time a plane designed without major innovations? We speak about a DC-10, not a Tristar.

"After a development process that cost US$5.4 billion to December 2015, including a US$3.2 billion writeoff, the smallest model in the series, the 110-125 seat CS100 received initial type certification from Transport Canada on 18 December 2015."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbus_A2 ... ht_testing

How much does one have to add for losses from early frames?
I guess anywhere between 10-20 billion $ should do for the MoM plane.


I dont know but everyone here speaks about a tight light ovoid fuselage with twin aisle but single aisle economy.

That is not a simple thing to do:

the ovoid fuselage means new forms of stress and a lot of R&D to keep it light. Light means a lot of optimization and planning otherwise you have the 787 fiasco again. To get single aisle economy means low production cost what translates in new innovative production systems.

The overall costs for the 787 were actually in the range of $45B, initially it is estimated that the deferred production costs were close to $30B + $15B development costs. That was over 10 years ago. So with inflation and price increases minimum would be $20B for R&D but if Airbus launches a cheap competitor then Boeing will have to sell initially at a loss and will ramp up deferred production costs again of at least $10B. Hence at least $30B.


They have been doing the R&D for over 10 years by now on a tight light 7W. They probably have it figured out how to build it efficiently.

The stresses can be minimized by using half a circle on top and say about 1/3 of a larger diameter circle on the bottom.


So 10 years and the result is?

Chances are there is not even a decision made that it will be 7W, or an ovoid shape or if it is a twin aisle, it is probably one option, with 3-4 different ones also studied. The real work will start 5-7 years before EIS. Boeing can not waste billions before the board approves the business case. No public traded company can waste money like that. The big money flows when the board accepts the business case.

As long as the board does not give a thumbs up no one in the whole supply chain will move and make something because they also can not waste money. Is an engine ready? No because the OEMs gave a yeah it is possible but they also need years to bring it to real life and billions of dollars. Same for all the others. If Boeing would have paid for all that over the last 10 years there would be a massive gap in Boeings yearly results and that would mean explanation to share holders which would mean that we know what is going on. Some low key R&D is not good enough to plan an aircraft. Design studies yeah but actual proper workable design? No way
 
Sokes
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Wed Nov 20, 2019 3:00 pm

FluidFlow wrote:

I dont know but everyone here speaks about a tight light ovoid fuselage with twin aisle but single aisle economy.
...
The overall costs for the 787 were actually in the range of $45B, initially it is estimated that the deferred production costs were close to $30B + $15B development costs. That was over 10 years ago.


I struggle to understand why Boeing wants a fuselage that's broader than high. I guess they already know how to do it.
787 was 45 billion $, but A220 was only 5 billion + whatever losses they make on the early frames. But Bombardier chose carbon wing. That was innovative.
How much did Embraer spend to develop the first generation E jets?
The B787 is an example of management disaster (outsourcing). It does not indicate how much one has to spend for a plane development if it's done right.
I guess "twin aisle but single aisle economy" refers to flights which a single aisle struggles to do.
But I probably overdo it with optimism when I estimate 10 billion $.

FluidFlow wrote:
Is an engine ready?


That's the main question.
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
FluidFlow
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Wed Nov 20, 2019 3:50 pm

Sokes wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:

I dont know but everyone here speaks about a tight light ovoid fuselage with twin aisle but single aisle economy.
...
The overall costs for the 787 were actually in the range of $45B, initially it is estimated that the deferred production costs were close to $30B + $15B development costs. That was over 10 years ago.


I struggle to understand why Boeing wants a fuselage that's broader than high. I guess they already know how to do it.
787 was 45 billion $, but A220 was only 5 billion + whatever losses they make on the early frames. But Bombardier chose carbon wing. That was innovative.
How much did Embraer spend to develop the first generation E jets?
The B787 is an example of management disaster (outsourcing). It does not indicate how much one has to spend for a plane development if it's done right.
I guess "twin aisle but single aisle economy" refers to flights which a single aisle struggles to do.
But I probably overdo it with optimism when I estimate 10 billion $.

FluidFlow wrote:
Is an engine ready?


That's the main question.


Yeah but BBD spent 5bn on an aircraft that would have been produced at a rate of what? 1 per month? There are significant more costs hidden now to ramp up. If Boeing wants to build one MoM per month the business case is not there. For a bigger RJ maybe but for the MoM the line has to run at 5 per months at least from the start. That costs a lot or money. I stand with 30bn spent on R&D including deferred production costs 10 years after launch. But we will see.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Wed Nov 20, 2019 8:27 pm

seahawk wrote:
Amiga500 wrote:
seahawk wrote:
I do not get the point to be honest, why you would stick with the old fuselage.


The point you were making upstairs that I objected to would appear to be that there is no guarantee that a shrunk 8AB A330 fuselage could be built for approximately the same weight as the A300 fuselage.


That depends on how we define fuselage. Sure you can keep the diameter, but one must not forget that outside the nose section the A330 still differs structurally from the A300, even though it is based on the fuselage of the A300.

You know as well as I do, that aircraft design is not Lego and if you want to do it right you might only end up with the nose (Airbus does have 2 better designs now) and the fuselage barrel plugs as re-useable. The central fuselage needs to change with a new wingbox / MLG and depending on how short you want to go, you might need a bigger tail (again Airbus has 2 better designs in production) as well.

But the biggest part imho, is that you want to use new materials and optimize for modern production.


In what way differs the A330 fuselage?

If you take a cut across it, they are identical. Lengthwise you have the same distance between frames and same height of the frames.. Same windows. The difference is not in design, but that single parts are beefed up, for the greater stress on the A330. Bigger wing box on the A330.

I would say, that there is a bigger difference between a 777 and a 777X fuselage and also between a 737 classic and NG fuselage, than between the A330 and A300 fuselage.

I would see no problem to produce a hypothetical new A330/310 fuselage on the current A330 lines.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Thu Nov 21, 2019 6:01 am

mjoelnir wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Amiga500 wrote:

The point you were making upstairs that I objected to would appear to be that there is no guarantee that a shrunk 8AB A330 fuselage could be built for approximately the same weight as the A300 fuselage.


That depends on how we define fuselage. Sure you can keep the diameter, but one must not forget that outside the nose section the A330 still differs structurally from the A300, even though it is based on the fuselage of the A300.

You know as well as I do, that aircraft design is not Lego and if you want to do it right you might only end up with the nose (Airbus does have 2 better designs now) and the fuselage barrel plugs as re-useable. The central fuselage needs to change with a new wingbox / MLG and depending on how short you want to go, you might need a bigger tail (again Airbus has 2 better designs in production) as well.

But the biggest part imho, is that you want to use new materials and optimize for modern production.


In what way differs the A330 fuselage?

If you take a cut across it, they are identical. Lengthwise you have the same distance between frames and same height of the frames.. Same windows. The difference is not in design, but that single parts are beefed up, for the greater stress on the A330. Bigger wing box on the A330.

I would say, that there is a bigger difference between a 777 and a 777X fuselage and also between a 737 classic and NG fuselage, than between the A330 and A300 fuselage.

I would see no problem to produce a hypothetical new A330/310 fuselage on the current A330 lines.


It differs by all those parts beefed up for the A330. I really do not see why the engineers at Airbus would save any time by starting with the old design, instead of simply doing a new fuselage with the same diameter (or a double lobe like the A350). Then you can use all new materials and construction methods that have become available in the last 3 decades.
 
aviationaware
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Thu Nov 21, 2019 7:42 am

Current engine technologies seem
to be pretty maxed out to me, at least judging by how complexity is basically making reliable operations largely a thing of the past.

So I don’t think we will se a new clean sheet from either of the two anytime soon.
 
VV
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Thu Nov 21, 2019 7:56 am

Clean sheet:
Image
 
User avatar
keesje
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Thu Nov 21, 2019 8:29 am

morrisond wrote:

They have been doing the R&D for over 10 years by now on a tight light 7W. They probably have it figured out how to build it efficiently.



Make that nearly 20 years. http://www.patentbuddy.com/Patent/6616100

An Airbus clean sheet seems years away. Some further variantions on current types seem much more likely.

Image
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Thu Nov 21, 2019 8:37 am

Why not put your A322 into the mix, @Keesje, I think that is on the drawing board in Toulouse and is the closest thing we have of a clean-sheet design by Airbus. Personally I don't think we will see a clean-sheet design introduced by Airbus in the 2020's, otherwise, we would have seen the first sign by now.

And let's face it, Boeing isn't pushing them to do so, they are pre-occupied by the B777X and its problems and getting the MAX into the air again. I think it is a bad thing, companies like these should keep innovating and keep ahead, otherwise, we will see their product line getting outdated by 2025-2030.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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seahawk
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Thu Nov 21, 2019 11:49 am

Never did Airbus have a more up-to-date product line than today. (The same is true for Boeing if you do ignore the 767)
 
morrisond
Posts: 2867
Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2010 12:22 am

Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Thu Nov 21, 2019 11:58 am

seahawk wrote:
Never did Airbus have a more up-to-date product line than today. (The same is true for Boeing if you do ignore the 767)


Seriously? The A320 and A330 are based on Late 80's/Early 90's tech. The only models that are up to date are the A350 and A220 which are what about 20% of their annual deliveries?

They were probably most up to date at about 1992 when the A330 first flew.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Thu Nov 21, 2019 12:37 pm

You forget the real bringer of efficiency, the engines.
 
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N14AZ
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Thu Nov 21, 2019 1:02 pm

aviationaware wrote:
Current engine technologies seem to be pretty maxed out to me, at least judging by how complexity is basically making reliable operations largely a thing of the past.
So I don’t think we will se a new clean sheet from either of the two anytime soon.

I think this pretty much sums it up.

That being said, one can still dream, right?
Image


morrisond wrote:
Seriously? The A320 and A330 are based on Late 80's/Early 90's tech.

Funny, I read this sentence and I was sure it been posted by another a.net member. I then glanced left to check the avatar and was very suprised to read another a.net member's name. :shock:
I guesss that happens when you read to much a.net.... ;-)
 
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seahawk
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Thu Nov 21, 2019 1:35 pm

Maxed out when we just see the first generation of geared turbofans? The LEAP and the PW GTF, show what would be possible with today´s technology if you theoretically combine both into one engine. (the materials, hot section and so on of the LEAP with the gear and fan of the GTF - this alone should be close to 8-10% improvement)
 
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keesje
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Thu Nov 21, 2019 1:47 pm

seahawk wrote:
Maxed out when we just see the first generation of geared turbofans? The LEAP and the PW GTF, show what would be possible with today´s technology if you theoretically combine both into one engine. (the materials, hot section and so on of the LEAP with the gear and fan of the GTF - this alone should be close to 8-10% improvement)


Agree that would probably be in a next generation of aircraft. Combining existing engine technologies in a single, right sized engine (30-45k lbs) with a higher BPR (1:13-18). This higher BPR would require a new wing / aircraft design.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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keesje
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Thu Nov 21, 2019 1:51 pm

seahawk wrote:
Maxed out when we just see the first generation of geared turbofans? The LEAP and the PW GTF, show what would be possible with today´s technology if you theoretically combine both into one engine. (the materials, hot section and so on of the LEAP with the gear and fan of the GTF - this alone should be close to 8-10% improvement)


Agree that would probably be in a next generation of aircraft. Combining existing engine technologies in a single, right sized engine (30-45k lbs) with a higher BPR (1:13-18). This higher BPR would drive a new wing / aircraft design.

Image
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
JonesNL
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Thu Nov 21, 2019 2:08 pm

keesje wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Maxed out when we just see the first generation of geared turbofans? The LEAP and the PW GTF, show what would be possible with today´s technology if you theoretically combine both into one engine. (the materials, hot section and so on of the LEAP with the gear and fan of the GTF - this alone should be close to 8-10% improvement)


Agree that would probably be in a next generation of aircraft. Combining existing engine technologies in a single, right sized engine (30-45k lbs) with a higher BPR (1:13-18). This higher BPR would drive a new wing / aircraft design.


That 30-45lbs engine would be a perfect fit for a A322...
 
mjoelnir
Posts: 9411
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Thu Nov 21, 2019 2:24 pm

seahawk wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
seahawk wrote:

That depends on how we define fuselage. Sure you can keep the diameter, but one must not forget that outside the nose section the A330 still differs structurally from the A300, even though it is based on the fuselage of the A300.

You know as well as I do, that aircraft design is not Lego and if you want to do it right you might only end up with the nose (Airbus does have 2 better designs now) and the fuselage barrel plugs as re-useable. The central fuselage needs to change with a new wingbox / MLG and depending on how short you want to go, you might need a bigger tail (again Airbus has 2 better designs in production) as well.

But the biggest part imho, is that you want to use new materials and optimize for modern production.


In what way differs the A330 fuselage?

If you take a cut across it, they are identical. Lengthwise you have the same distance between frames and same height of the frames.. Same windows. The difference is not in design, but that single parts are beefed up, for the greater stress on the A330. Bigger wing box on the A330.

I would say, that there is a bigger difference between a 777 and a 777X fuselage and also between a 737 classic and NG fuselage, than between the A330 and A300 fuselage.

I would see no problem to produce a hypothetical new A330/310 fuselage on the current A330 lines.


It differs by all those parts beefed up for the A330. I really do not see why the engineers at Airbus would save any time by starting with the old design, instead of simply doing a new fuselage with the same diameter (or a double lobe like the A350). Then you can use all new materials and construction methods that have become available in the last 3 decades.


I tried to tell you, that the difference between an A330 fuselage and A330 fuselage that you claim to be, is just not there. The A330 is a stretched A300 fuselage with the needed changes for a big increase in MTOW. There are different parts between a A330-300 and an A330-200 fuselage in certain places. They would add the third.
There is more difference between a 777 and 777X fuselage, still produced on the same line.
What new materials if you build an Aluminium fuselage? Aluminium Lithium does not seem to be the big advantage it was claimed to be, the big disadvantage to Aluminium Lithium alloy is, that it is rather brittle, even though it has a higher strength. I assume fatigue testing showed that you still need a similar weight as in aluminium 7075 in regards to skins.
Going for CFRP fuselage would negate any advantage of building something similar as the A330 on A330 production line, you would need a new dedicated production.

The main point to looking at the old A300/310 fuselage is, that it was a rather light fuselage compared to its size. Both the A300 and the A310 are lighter than the 767-300 and 767-200 respectively. At that time when Airbus developed the A330, customers just wanted to have bigger frames.
I still do not believe in the big NMA market, the A310 and 767-200 had similar low sales numbers. But I believe that the design of the A300 fuselage, is the optimal design for a small wide body, in regards to weight to possible load of freight and passengers. The draw back of the A300 in regards to range would disappear today, more range would come through modern engines, rather than added weight.
 
JonesNL
Posts: 197
Joined: Tue Aug 06, 2019 2:40 pm

Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Thu Nov 21, 2019 4:07 pm

Interview with Guillaume Faury saying that Airbus is thinking of introducing an new NB in the second halve of next decade with an EIS in early 2030's. He is suggesting that technology advancement maturity is a prerequisite though.

https://simpleflying.com/airbus-new-narrowbody-2030/
 
Amiga500
Posts: 2645
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Thu Nov 21, 2019 4:14 pm

JonesNL wrote:
Interview with Guillaume Faury saying that Airbus is thinking of introducing an new NB in the second halve of next decade with an EIS in early 2030's. He is suggesting that technology advancement maturity is a prerequisite though.

https://simpleflying.com/airbus-new-narrowbody-2030/



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