Amiga500
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Wed Aug 21, 2019 12:10 pm

Babyshark wrote:
It really needs to be gutted to help bring up its reliability, it's not just engines and poor quality control at the FAL that hurt it on the line here at Delta, it's the design.


Any more info on that please?


Babyshark wrote:
Drop the 225 talk. That thing has massive holes in logic given length, cargo and performance. which is why it has 0 orders and 320N has 4000.


It has zero orders as it was never launched. ;)

Given the significant CASM and trip cost benefits a stretch would have relative to a 737-8 or A320, its a massive hole in logic to suggest that (i) fuselage length or (ii) cargo "performance" would prevent airlines from buying it.

(i) literally no-one outside of anet cares about fuselage length as long as it fits in the gate category and its structurally efficient.
(ii) I can only assume you refer to containers? Otherwise are you referring to payload or payload-range?
 
JonesNL
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Re: Next clean sheet Airbus: A32x successor

Wed Aug 21, 2019 12:24 pm

Amiga500 wrote:
JonesNL wrote:
One can make the easy conclusion that there is significant improvements possible with new tech.


Really? :?

I had a post ready to go into the other thread, but now its merged to this, I'll rehash.

As I said above in this thread, there are a number of technologies that are either entering use or approaching the TRL maturity necessary for use on programme.

1. Carbon NanoFibre infused resins will be the next step in composite materials.
2. Acceptance of Additive Layer Manufacturing on large Principle Structural Elements by regulators.
3. Out of autoclave curing for large components (already evident on MS-21).
4. Maturing of Hybrid Laminar Flow to TRL sufficient for for a program to rely on it for performance - probably limited to non-lifting surfaces.
5. Lite-Hybrid electric aircraft which have wheel motors/regen braking sufficient to taxi aircraft from runway to stand on batteries/APU. Same for reversing off stand using APU/ground charged batteries.

Of the above, (1) is in the Su-57 (PAK-FA), (2) is on non PSEs already and (3) is extensively used on MS-21.

Any single-aisle replacement will need 4 & 5 as well. Probably even other things that I haven't mentioned - things like folding wingtips maybe.

If it doesn't nail everything possible, then a retrofit of new engine onto an existing airframe as well as changing various part manufacturing methods will see the end DOC benefit not being sufficient to justify the investment.

A new program must offer at least a 5% DOC benefit relative to an upgraded alternative to be sure of its business case. That equation didn't add up in 2010 and it doesn't add up now. It won't add up in 2025 either. It might add up in 2030.


I didn't understand the merge of threads either, probably missed a forum rule somewhere...

For clarity of discussion, what is 5% DOC?

5. Hybrid electric will definitely not happen in the next decade; there are many experiments out there but none of the engine producers has made commitments regarding an massproduction ready hybrid electric solution. Wouldn't the upcoming Ultrafan be enough to make the business case work?

I am also guessing that the replacing of the 737NG and 320ceo will be intensified if there is a bird in the market that offers 50% less fuel cost.
 
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keesje
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Wed Aug 21, 2019 12:24 pm

Amiga500 wrote:
(ii) I can only assume you refer to containers? Otherwise are you referring to payload or payload-range?


Payload, maybe a A220 / 737 can carry a lot of payload, but doing it bulk just isn't the same. E.g. if boxes are 100 lbs. Or 1000lbs.

Image
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
Amiga500
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Re: Next clean sheet Airbus: A32x successor

Wed Aug 21, 2019 12:34 pm

JonesNL wrote:
For clarity of discussion, what is 5% DOC?


Direct operating costs.

Basically the bottom line for the airlines after fuel burn, maintenance, cost of purchase etc is added up.


JonesNL wrote:
5. Hybrid electric will definitely not happen in the next decade; there are many experiments out there but none of the engine producers has made commitments regarding an massproduction ready hybrid electric solution. Wouldn't the upcoming Ultrafan be enough to make the business case work?

I am also guessing that the replacing of the 737NG and 320ceo will be intensified if there is a bird in the market that offers 50% less fuel cost.


But an Ultrafan can be retrofit onto an A320. So the A320 could offer (say) 45% less fuel cost at a fraction of the development cost and time.

Hence why a clean sheet will never get the go ahead if the performance improvement is largely restricted to engine alone.
 
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keesje
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Wed Aug 21, 2019 12:39 pm

VV wrote:
Instead of doing a clean sheet design, perhaps they can revive the A380neo like discussed in the thread below.
viewtopic.php?t=603309&start=50


2016. :old:
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
Amiga500
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Wed Aug 21, 2019 12:42 pm

keesje wrote:
Amiga500 wrote:
(ii) I can only assume you refer to containers? Otherwise are you referring to payload or payload-range?


Payload, maybe a A220 / 737 can carry a lot of payload, but doing it bulk just isn't the same. E.g. if boxes are 100 lbs. Or 1000lbs.


Yeah, the 737 program is obviously killed on not offering containerised payload. :?

Even many Airbus operators don't bother with the containers.

In addition, there is nothing to stop anyone making a container system for the CSeries (like Telair have done with the 737).
 
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Wed Aug 21, 2019 12:49 pm

LaunchDetected wrote:
The triad A220-A321-A350 is already well positioned to cover a large spectrum during the next decades.

A321 being the older one, a clean-sheet of the equivalent size, with composite fuselage could be an idea, like a 797, but with the following generation of engines. I think it would be too early for electrical engines though.


I don't see Airbus doing a whole new clean sheet design in the next few years. Scaling up the A220 production system and cutting its costs will be a big project for Airbus. Also, I could see Airbus doing another improvement on the A320 series to compete against the 797. They could put CFRP wings on the existing A320 series fuselage cross section. This would make them more like the A220 series. It would also allow the A321 derivatives to be true 757 killers. The A321 could then be slightly stretched to the length of the 757-200 but able to fly missions from the US east coast to eastern Europe. A CFRP rewinged and slighly stretched A320 would be a 737-8 MAX killer.
 
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SEPilot
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Wed Aug 21, 2019 1:28 pm

The first question is what holes exist in their lineup? None, really. And the next question is where do their offerings fall short of what Boeing has to offer? And that is where it gets interesting. The first obvious shortfall is the A330neo is obviously inferior to the 787, and the A350 is bigger and more expensive. There would be room for a CFRP replacement for the A330, which would probably end up being pretty much a direct competitor to the 787, as it would be make it significantly smaller and keep it a twin aisle. It is clear that airlines cannot effectively sell passenger comfort, so if you design it for 8 abreast, as Boeing did with the 787 airlines will use it as 9 abreast. And if you duplicate the A330 cross section you will lose efficiency against the 787, unless airlines squeeze 9 seats in that, as some are doing. And as this will steal A350 sales and have a very hard time competing on price against the 787, I do not see it happening. So the most likely is an A320/A321 replacement in response to Boeing launching a 737 replacement, which is a ways away, because it is really awaiting a technology advance that will make it worthwhile.
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JonesNL
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Re: Next clean sheet Airbus: A32x successor

Wed Aug 21, 2019 1:36 pm

Amiga500 wrote:
JonesNL wrote:
For clarity of discussion, what is 5% DOC?


Direct operating costs.

Basically the bottom line for the airlines after fuel burn, maintenance, cost of purchase etc is added up.


JonesNL wrote:
Amiga500 wrote:
1. Carbon NanoFibre infused resins will be the next step in composite materials.
2. Acceptance of Additive Layer Manufacturing on large Principle Structural Elements by regulators.
3. Out of autoclave curing for large components (already evident on MS-21).
4. Maturing of Hybrid Laminar Flow to TRL sufficient for for a program to rely on it for performance - probably limited to non-lifting surfaces.
5. Hybrid electric will definitely not happen in the next decade; there are many experiments out there but none of the engine producers has made commitments regarding an massproduction ready hybrid electric solution. Wouldn't the upcoming Ultrafan be enough to make the business case work?

I am also guessing that the replacing of the 737NG and 320ceo will be intensified if there is a bird in the market that offers 50% less fuel cost.


But an Ultrafan can be retrofit onto an A320. So the A320 could offer (say) 45% less fuel cost at a fraction of the development cost and time.

Hence why a clean sheet will never get the go ahead if the performance improvement is largely restricted to engine alone.


Wouldn't achieving points 1 to 4 be enough to achieve the 5% DOC?
 
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Wed Aug 21, 2019 2:05 pm

SEPilot wrote:
The first question is what holes exist in their lineup? None, really. And the next question is where do their offerings fall short of what Boeing has to offer? And that is where it gets interesting. The first obvious shortfall is the A330neo is obviously inferior to the 787, and the A350 is bigger and more expensive. There would be room for a CFRP replacement for the A330, which would probably end up being pretty much a direct competitor to the 787, as it would be make it significantly smaller and keep it a twin aisle. It is clear that airlines cannot effectively sell passenger comfort, so if you design it for 8 abreast, as Boeing did with the 787 airlines will use it as 9 abreast. And if you duplicate the A330 cross section you will lose efficiency against the 787, unless airlines squeeze 9 seats in that, as some are doing. And as this will steal A350 sales and have a very hard time competing on price against the 787, I do not see it happening. So the most likely is an A320/A321 replacement in response to Boeing launching a 737 replacement, which is a ways away, because it is really awaiting a technology advance that will make it worthwhile.


A330neo replacement wouldn't steal sales from the A350 if both the -900 and -1000 get modest stretches to re-position them to higher capacities. Next generation engines will give it way too much capability that it would probably be better to turn it into more cabin space. Plus, to go by what's being said on these boards, the 787-10(ER?) will be improved to make inroads into A359 territory.
 
Amiga500
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Re: Next clean sheet Airbus: A32x successor

Wed Aug 21, 2019 2:45 pm

JonesNL wrote:
Amiga500 wrote:
1. Carbon NanoFibre infused resins will be the next step in composite materials.
2. Acceptance of Additive Layer Manufacturing on large Principle Structural Elements by regulators.
3. Out of autoclave curing for large components (already evident on MS-21).
4. Maturing of Hybrid Laminar Flow to TRL sufficient for for a program to rely on it for performance - probably limited to non-lifting surfaces.


Wouldn't achieving points 1 to 4 be enough to achieve the 5% DOC?


Unlikely.

I would guesstimate:

1. <5% improvement in fuel burn through thinner higher aspect ratio wing with smoother surface with less joints. That translates to about a 1.5% improvement in aircraft DOC.
2. If you had a 5% improvement in aircraft build cost, then that translates to a ~1% improvement in DOC.
3. Similar to above. But composites are typically more expensive to produce per part than metallics and cheaper to assemble into... erm assemblies. Fuselage are easier to automate than wings as they can be auto-laid up on mandrels easier. Say similar to above as what you gain on the swings (fuselage), you might lose on the roundabouts (wings) - and the wings see better aerodynamic benefit of going CFRP - point (1) is largely from CFRP enabled lower thickness:chord ratio.
4. 50% of drag is non-lift dependent. If you cut that by 10% (outside of the wings which is point (1)) you'd be delighted, so that is a 5% drop in drag. Similar to point 1 - about a 1.5% improvement in aircraft DOC. We will ignore the maintenance burden.

Add them up and you have ~5% assuming everything works perfectly. But there is nothing stopping you retrofitting (2) and (3) to the detail design of existing aircraft - the change is really in what you do at the concept level and how it'd influence the larger architecture of the aircraft and then the benefit you see from that.

So that is everything working great and the business case goes from non-starter to marginal. For every increment you improve above that, then the case for investment starts to solidify.


https://leehamnews.com/2018/01/03/nma-m ... eahy-says/

Leahy sees the replacements for the 737 and A320 families around 2030 or a couple of years later.

“It’s really the engine technology,” he said. “You’ve got a neo and MAX that are 15%-20% better than the 321ceo. You’re going to have to be 15% to 20% better than [the neo]. That requires real breakthroughs of engine technology. That may be unducted fans, etc. You can’t spend $15bn for an all-new, single-aisle airplane and take today’s technology engines and hang it underneath it. You’ll be 5% better than you are today.”

Leahy said that’s what Airbus looked at with the neo. A clean sheet of paper and an unlimited budget only gave Airbus 5% better on the airframe; the rest came from the engine.

“Boeing is looking at the same number.”

The next new engine is likely to be an unducted fan or a shrouded fan that gives 15% better economics than today’s engines, which when coupled with 5% improvements in the airframe, give the 20% needed to be a “game-changing” airplane, he said.


I assume he is talking about fuel burn in the above. A 20% improvement in fuel burn corresponds to approximately a 5% improvement in DOC (based on fuel being ~25% of DOC).


Now, obviously John Leahy is gonna bullsit a bit around the truth to emphasis what he wants his message to be, so would an unlimited budget really only give Airbus 5% on the frame? Possibly. I'm reading more into what he considers the step change necessary to get orders as it was a side point to his main argument and thus I think thats more likely to be fully truthful.
 
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Wed Aug 21, 2019 3:07 pm

Amiga500 wrote:
keesje wrote:
Amiga500 wrote:
(ii) I can only assume you refer to containers? Otherwise are you referring to payload or payload-range?


Payload, maybe a A220 / 737 can carry a lot of payload, but doing it bulk just isn't the same. E.g. if boxes are 100 lbs. Or 1000lbs.


Yeah, the 737 program is obviously killed on not offering containerised payload. :?

Even many Airbus operators don't bother with the containers.

In addition, there is nothing to stop anyone making a container system for the CSeries (like Telair have done with the 737).


Correct, apart from lower deck strenght, cargo door size, height, loading system and global standardization.

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Re: Next clean sheet Airbus: A32x successor

Wed Aug 21, 2019 3:41 pm

Amiga500 wrote:
JonesNL wrote:
Amiga500 wrote:
1. Carbon NanoFibre infused resins will be the next step in composite materials.
2. Acceptance of Additive Layer Manufacturing on large Principle Structural Elements by regulators.
3. Out of autoclave curing for large components (already evident on MS-21).
4. Maturing of Hybrid Laminar Flow to TRL sufficient for for a program to rely on it for performance - probably limited to non-lifting surfaces.


Wouldn't achieving points 1 to 4 be enough to achieve the 5% DOC?


Unlikely.

I would guesstimate:

1. <5% improvement in fuel burn through thinner higher aspect ratio wing with smoother surface with less joints. That translates to about a 1.5% improvement in aircraft DOC.
2. If you had a 5% improvement in aircraft build cost, then that translates to a ~1% improvement in DOC.
3. Similar to above. But composites are typically more expensive to produce per part than metallics and cheaper to assemble into... erm assemblies. Fuselage are easier to automate than wings as they can be auto-laid up on mandrels easier. Say similar to above as what you gain on the swings (fuselage), you might lose on the roundabouts (wings) - and the wings see better aerodynamic benefit of going CFRP - point (1) is largely from CFRP enabled lower thickness:chord ratio.
4. 50% of drag is non-lift dependent. If you cut that by 10% (outside of the wings which is point (1)) you'd be delighted, so that is a 5% drop in drag. Similar to point 1 - about a 1.5% improvement in aircraft DOC. We will ignore the maintenance burden.

Add them up and you have ~5% assuming everything works perfectly. But there is nothing stopping you retrofitting (2) and (3) to the detail design of existing aircraft - the change is really in what you do at the concept level and how it'd influence the larger architecture of the aircraft and then the benefit you see from that.

So that is everything working great and the business case goes from non-starter to marginal. For every increment you improve above that, then the case for investment starts to solidify.


https://leehamnews.com/2018/01/03/nma-m ... eahy-says/

Leahy sees the replacements for the 737 and A320 families around 2030 or a couple of years later.

“It’s really the engine technology,” he said. “You’ve got a neo and MAX that are 15%-20% better than the 321ceo. You’re going to have to be 15% to 20% better than [the neo]. That requires real breakthroughs of engine technology. That may be unducted fans, etc. You can’t spend $15bn for an all-new, single-aisle airplane and take today’s technology engines and hang it underneath it. You’ll be 5% better than you are today.”

Leahy said that’s what Airbus looked at with the neo. A clean sheet of paper and an unlimited budget only gave Airbus 5% better on the airframe; the rest came from the engine.

“Boeing is looking at the same number.”

The next new engine is likely to be an unducted fan or a shrouded fan that gives 15% better economics than today’s engines, which when coupled with 5% improvements in the airframe, give the 20% needed to be a “game-changing” airplane, he said.


I assume he is talking about fuel burn in the above. A 20% improvement in fuel burn corresponds to approximately a 5% improvement in DOC (based on fuel being ~25% of DOC).


Now, obviously John Leahy is gonna bullsit a bit around the truth to emphasis what he wants his message to be, so would an unlimited budget really only give Airbus 5% on the frame? Possibly. I'm reading more into what he considers the step change necessary to get orders as it was a side point to his main argument and thus I think thats more likely to be fully truthful.

While I would debate percentages and cost impact, the conclusion is the same, we are talking EIS 2030+. I would add there is a tremendous weight savings with titanium additive manufacturing of parts that were previously uneconomical except aluminum. I'm shocked 3D printed titanium can be cheeper than beer can due to all the manufacturing savings (material costs more, assemblies cost less).

What is missing is electrical subsystems. The add weight (about 1500 kg), but save 3% fuel by 2 hours and a little more on longer flights. Maintenance costs for the subsystems cut 50% but the real cost savings is the ability to schedule maintenance better and reduced missed dispatches.

The A320 is already being discussed like the MD-80. That amuses me. It has 15+ years of production left and 40+ more years of service.

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Re: Next clean sheet Airbus: A32x successor

Wed Aug 21, 2019 3:46 pm

keesje wrote:
I think Airbus is in the lead in the NB segment. Sales, backlogs, forecasts andupgrade potential of current types seem to confirm that.

Even if you ignore the current MAX drama. It seems there is no need to develop a new NB soon:
- A220 can take care of the smaller less efficient A318, A319, 737-7 replacement markets
- A320 cross section has the dimensions for reasonable cabin flexibility and cargo
- A320 has clearance to use higher bypass, more quiet and efficient engines
- A320 has further development potential in terms of A320 and A321 strteches, meeting evolving market demand.

Image


K-Man, I agree with most of this … but perhaps A220-300/500 could replace A319/A320?
That lets you push the A320.5 to the new wing and other improvements that you have for A321/A322. Simplify it to a 3 model family.

Either way, Airbus is in an enviable position.... Most of us can't imagine the need for a clean-sheet aircraft at the moment as A220/320/350 are such good foundations.
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Amiga500
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Wed Aug 21, 2019 4:32 pm

keesje wrote:
Correct, apart from lower deck strenght, cargo door size, height, loading system and global standardization.


Throwing in a photo doesn't get away from amateur hour thinking.

>> The A320 and CSeries take the exact same loading pressure on the flat floor, 732 kg/m2. The CS300 can take 4898 kg in both holds (175 kg/m3). The A320 can take 9435 kg in both holds (253 kg/m3). No surprise given the extra fuselage diameter of the A320. Lengthen the CS300 to a CS500 and you are looking at around 5.5 tonnes cargo.
>> You size the container to the cargo door - H0.84, W1.18. The bay has a height of 1.05m so you are losing 20cm of height due to the door.
>> Which automatically limits container height. But you cannot go to the max bay height anyway for circulation of fire suppressant so its irrelevant.
>> Of course a loading system would be required. Unless the current equipment around the world is generic enough to use a variant container. If not, then you are saying that the A320 replacement needs to use the exact same containers at the exact same door height as A320, otherwise it will also need a new loading system - and Airbus will hold the A30X hostage to that.

I continue to note that the 737 has survived for decades without containers becoming mainstream.

Also, again, an airline is not going to turn down a CASM difference approaching 10% just because of containers. If they do, their competitors won't and they'll soon find themselves short on passengers in the seats regardless of what is in their cargo hold. If both aircraft were operated at MZFW, then cargo would need to be >15% of overall yield for that flight for the A320neo to be the more efficient option - otherwise you are making more money burning significantly* less fuel flying slightly* less cargo+passengers.


*significantly and slightly used here in the context of relative to each other.
 
Amiga500
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Re: Next clean sheet Airbus: A32x successor

Wed Aug 21, 2019 4:38 pm

lightsaber wrote:
While I would debate percentages and cost impact, the conclusion is the same, we are talking EIS 2030+. I would add there is a tremendous weight savings with titanium additive manufacturing of parts that were previously uneconomical except aluminum. I'm shocked 3D printed titanium can be cheeper than beer can due to all the manufacturing savings (material costs more, assemblies cost less).


Agreed - but how much of that can be worked back via CPD into the A320/B737 lines. Probably quite a bit. Won't be as effective sure, but whats the delta from that comparison. Very hard to stick a firm number on it!


lightsaber wrote:
What is missing is electrical subsystems. The add weight (about 1500 kg), but save 3% fuel by 2 hours and a little more on longer flights. Maintenance costs for the subsystems cut 50% but the real cost savings is the ability to schedule maintenance better and reduced missed dispatches.


You mean more electric or you mean better diagnosis? [pr crowd would call it smart systems]



lightsaber wrote:
The A320 is already being discussed like the MD-80. That amuses me. It has 15+ years of production left and 40+ more years of service.


We all want to see the next shiny thing to come out.

A320 is rock solid for years yet. Boeing have the big problem as Airbus can (more) easily neo2 the A320.

Airbus do that and Boeing have to then get all this technology matured onto their single aisle replacement and get it into service it in a timely fashion and ramp it and EIS with insanely high dispatch reliability.

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Armadillo1
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Wed Aug 21, 2019 4:41 pm

back to topic, what A can do as new clean sheet?

- Airbus A320-MS-21
- A350-600 (will be renamed to 360) as short 350 fuselage on new 330/787 size wing.
-stretches like 225, 321XYZ/322 and 350-1100.
 
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Re: Next clean sheet Airbus: A32x successor

Wed Aug 21, 2019 4:48 pm

ODwyerPW wrote:
K-Man, I agree with most of this … but perhaps A220-300/500 could replace A319/A320?
That lets you push the A320.5 to the new wing and other improvements that you have for A321/A322. Simplify it to a 3 model family.


Yeah, I'm modifying my own comments here.... existing A320 NEO has 4000 orders.... That size will have to continue..... There is too much infrastructure around it.

So what if you have:

A319 goes away. users upgrade to A320 or down to A220-300 (or 500 if launched).
A320-300 which is existing A320 size with new wing and A350 cockpit at current A320 fuselage length (can't argue with 4000 sales... leave the size alone... just improve it)?
A321-300 which is existing A321 size with new wing and A350 cockpit at current A321 fuselage length (has already made trouble for the MAX9 and MAX 10)
A322-300 becomes an A320 stretch (what we were the A320.5 or A320 Plus) with new wing and A350 cockpit with a stretched A320 fuselage. (will make allot of trouble for the MAX8)
A323-300 becomes an A321 stretch (what we were calling A322) with new wing and A350 cockpit with a stretched A321 fuselage and probably double bogie landing gear. (will cause allot more trouble for MAX10 and really challenge the bottom end of NMA)

Yeah, the numbering and size is a bit out of order... who cares.
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astuteman
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Wed Aug 21, 2019 5:13 pm

SEPilot wrote:
The first question is what holes exist in their lineup? None, really. And the next question is where do their offerings fall short of what Boeing has to offer? And that is where it gets interesting. The first obvious shortfall is the A330neo is obviously inferior to the 787, and the A350 is bigger and more expensive. There would be room for a CFRP replacement for the A330, which would probably end up being pretty much a direct competitor to the 787, as it would be make it significantly smaller and keep it a twin aisle. It is clear that airlines cannot effectively sell passenger comfort, so if you design it for 8 abreast, as Boeing did with the 787 airlines will use it as 9 abreast. And if you duplicate the A330 cross section you will lose efficiency against the 787, unless airlines squeeze 9 seats in that, as some are doing. And as this will steal A350 sales and have a very hard time competing on price against the 787, I do not see it happening. So the most likely is an A320/A321 replacement in response to Boeing launching a 737 replacement, which is a ways away, because it is really awaiting a technology advance that will make it worthwhile.


For what its worth I am not as bearish on the A330NEO as a lot of people seem to be, although relative to its immediate competitor from Boeing it has to be one of the weaker offerings in the Airbus line up. But I think we will see sales strengthen as it matures.
Any issue the A350 has in terms of cost will disappear as it reaches maturity and full output, especially if the 787 retrenches slightly back from 14 per month to a more sustainable 10 or 12.

I think the A330NEO's future is closely tied to if the 797 launches, and if it is successful.
Whilst it is clear that Airbus can do "things" with the A32X, they may elect to pull the trigger on an A330 replacement which as you say, is slightly smaller and lighter to a) better align to the 787 in terms of appeal, and b) limit the 797 from above.

As the question was "all new programme" I don't see the A350 going away or being replaced. It will clearly get developed.

The A220 is new anyway, and bound for success

The interesting question is the A320. It is not new by any means, but with such a large backlog, and in such a strong position in its niche its hard to see a reason for Airbus to pull the trigger anytime soon. It will have to be being threatened first in my opinion.
The 797 is not a threat to it, but a Boeing NSA would be.

Conclusion - whatever we might like to see from Airbus as an all new programme, they have put the ball in Boeing's court to launch either the 797 or NSA before they respond

Rgds
 
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Wed Aug 21, 2019 5:29 pm

Amiga500 wrote:
keesje wrote:
Correct, apart from lower deck strenght, cargo door size, height, loading system and global standardization.


Throwing in a photo doesn't get away from amateur hour thinking.

>> The A320 and CSeries take the exact same loading pressure on the flat floor, 732 kg/m2. The CS300 can take 4898 kg in both holds (175 kg/m3). The A320 can take 9435 kg in both holds (253 kg/m3). No surprise given the extra fuselage diameter of the A320. Lengthen the CS300 to a CS500 and you are looking at around 5.5 tonnes cargo.
>> You size the container to the cargo door - H0.84, W1.18. The bay has a height of 1.05m so you are losing 20cm of height due to the door.
>> Which automatically limits container height. But you cannot go to the max bay height anyway for circulation of fire suppressant so its irrelevant.
>> Of course a loading system would be required. Unless the current equipment around the world is generic enough to use a variant container. If not, then you are saying that the A320 replacement needs to use the exact same containers at the exact same door height as A320, otherwise it will also need a new loading system - and Airbus will hold the A30X hostage to that.

I continue to note that the 737 has survived for decades without containers becoming mainstream.

Also, again, an airline is not going to turn down a CASM difference approaching 10% just because of containers. If they do, their competitors won't and they'll soon find themselves short on passengers in the seats regardless of what is in their cargo hold. If both aircraft were operated at MZFW, then cargo would need to be >15% of overall yield for that flight for the A320neo to be the more efficient option - otherwise you are making more money burning significantly* less fuel flying slightly* less cargo+passengers.


*significantly and slightly used here in the context of relative to each other.


I think the door size precludes containers on the A220. If the container is 84cm by 118cm and take away 4cm of interior space for both sides and bottom you have 80cm by 110cm by contured width of aircraft. Loading those containers with suitcases is going to be a "fun" game of Tetris trying to figure out how to use as much of the 80cm and 110cm as you can.

I suppose if it's light baggage it might be doable but in that scenario the container systems added expense vs light bulk loading of a light load of luggage...
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Next clean sheet Airbus: A32x successor

Wed Aug 21, 2019 5:51 pm

Amiga500 wrote:
JonesNL wrote:
One can make the easy conclusion that there is significant improvements possible with new tech.


Really? :?

I had a post ready to go into the other thread, but now its merged to this, I'll rehash.

As I said above in this thread, there are a number of technologies that are either entering use or approaching the TRL maturity necessary for use on programme.

1. Carbon NanoFibre infused resins will be the next step in composite materials.
2. Acceptance of Additive Layer Manufacturing on large Principle Structural Elements by regulators.
3. Out of autoclave curing for large components (already evident on MS-21).
4. Maturing of Hybrid Laminar Flow to TRL sufficient for for a program to rely on it for performance - probably limited to non-lifting surfaces.
5. Lite-Hybrid electric aircraft which have wheel motors/regen braking sufficient to taxi aircraft from runway to stand on batteries/APU. Same for reversing off stand using APU/ground charged batteries.

Of the above, (1) is in the Su-57 (PAK-FA), (2) is on non PSEs already and (3) is extensively used on MS-21.

Any single-aisle replacement will need 4 & 5 as well. Probably even other things that I haven't mentioned - things like folding wingtips maybe.

If it doesn't nail everything possible, then a retrofit of new engine onto an existing airframe as well as changing various part manufacturing methods will see the end DOC benefit not being sufficient to justify the investment.

A new program must offer at least a 5% DOC benefit relative to an upgraded alternative to be sure of its business case. That equation didn't add up in 2010 and it doesn't add up now. It won't add up in 2025 either. It might add up in 2030.


Replying:
1.+ 2.+ 3. I think that materials and production processes will not be nearly as important in the whole picture of future aircraft. CFRP is a solution that is good enough and any new materials or production processes can only benefit production costs but weight savings will be limited.

3. Laminar flow technology can save ballpark 5%. The ROI may not be worth the investment.

4. What you describe has hundreds of patents taken on the subject over the past 4 decades, including patents that Airbus and Boeing took but never executed.
There is a reason for that.


The next generation of commercial aircraft will have to rethink how energy is managed and will have to include new technologies that are both manageable and offer sufficient benefits.
One breakthrough is sufficient to open a cascade of new possibilities and often the answer is in front of us the entire time.
Quite frankly, I'm disappointed at aerospace engineers of the past 5 decades who have only been able to perfect technology of the 1950's and not go beyond, compared to the engineers who have made leaps after leaps over the 5 decades before that.

In 10 years time, we will be laughing at pseudo-evolutionary technologies like the GTF, laminar flow or CMC.

Like I said, Airbus will make a U-turn on the A380 when they will be presented new breakthrough technology in the coming years. The A380 hangar won't be reused for anything else, if anything it will get allures of Skunk Works.
Last edited by Waterbomber2 on Wed Aug 21, 2019 6:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Erebus
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Wed Aug 21, 2019 5:53 pm

astuteman wrote:
I think the A330NEO's future is closely tied to if the 797 launches, and if it is successful.
Whilst it is clear that Airbus can do "things" with the A32X, they may elect to pull the trigger on an A330 replacement which as you say, is slightly smaller and lighter to a) better align to the 787 in terms of appeal, and b) limit the 797 from above.


Haven't really thought about this until now, but it must give Boeing pause for thought when trying to close the 797/MoM business case.
 
Wallhart
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Wed Aug 21, 2019 7:39 pm

Be great if speed was in the next factor. Same economics but quicker planes. One can dream...

I'm fully aware that they are at max practical speeds but one day i hope the technology can advance to improve the time of travel
 
Amiga500
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Wed Aug 21, 2019 8:35 pm

rrbsztk wrote:
I think the door size precludes containers on the A220. If the container is 84cm by 118cm and take away 4cm of interior space for both sides and bottom you have 80cm by 110cm by contured width of aircraft. Loading those containers with suitcases is going to be a "fun" game of Tetris trying to figure out how to use as much of the 80cm and 110cm as you can.

I suppose if it's light baggage it might be doable but in that scenario the container systems added expense vs light bulk loading of a light load of luggage...


I think the idea was more to have containers for dedicated cargo operations (i.e. shipping amazon parcels) rather than passenger baggage.

So you'd have a couple of containers in each hold with cargo - shoved up against one side - and then bulk loading of baggage at the other side of the door (in each hold).

But, yes, absolutely take your point that below a certain size, use of a container becomes nonsensical.
 
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Wed Aug 21, 2019 8:56 pm

astuteman wrote:
SEPilot wrote:
The first question is what holes exist in their lineup? None, really. And the next question is where do their offerings fall short of what Boeing has to offer? And that is where it gets interesting. The first obvious shortfall is the A330neo is obviously inferior to the 787, and the A350 is bigger and more expensive. There would be room for a CFRP replacement for the A330, which would probably end up being pretty much a direct competitor to the 787, as it would be make it significantly smaller and keep it a twin aisle. It is clear that airlines cannot effectively sell passenger comfort, so if you design it for 8 abreast, as Boeing did with the 787 airlines will use it as 9 abreast. And if you duplicate the A330 cross section you will lose efficiency against the 787, unless airlines squeeze 9 seats in that, as some are doing. And as this will steal A350 sales and have a very hard time competing on price against the 787, I do not see it happening. So the most likely is an A320/A321 replacement in response to Boeing launching a 737 replacement, which is a ways away, because it is really awaiting a technology advance that will make it worthwhile.


For what its worth I am not as bearish on the A330NEO as a lot of people seem to be, although relative to its immediate competitor from Boeing it has to be one of the weaker offerings in the Airbus line up. But I think we will see sales strengthen as it matures.
Any issue the A350 has in terms of cost will disappear as it reaches maturity and full output, especially if the 787 retrenches slightly back from 14 per month to a more sustainable 10 or 12.

I think the A330NEO's future is closely tied to if the 797 launches, and if it is successful.
Whilst it is clear that Airbus can do "things" with the A32X, they may elect to pull the trigger on an A330 replacement which as you say, is slightly smaller and lighter to a) better align to the 787 in terms of appeal, and b) limit the 797 from above.

As the question was "all new programme" I don't see the A350 going away or being replaced. It will clearly get developed.

The A220 is new anyway, and bound for success

The interesting question is the A320. It is not new by any means, but with such a large backlog, and in such a strong position in its niche its hard to see a reason for Airbus to pull the trigger anytime soon. It will have to be being threatened first in my opinion.
The 797 is not a threat to it, but a Boeing NSA would be.

Conclusion - whatever we might like to see from Airbus as an all new programme, they have put the ball in Boeing's court to launch either the 797 or NSA before they respond

Rgds

I am dubious about a 7 abreast 797 ever getting the go-ahead. I think Boeing will just put the work on it into a 737 replacement. I am also doubtful about long term prospects for the 777X program; I think the A3510 will take most of the orders, unless GE pulls another surprise and the GE-9X turns out much better than expected. But I think it will be very difficult for the 777X to overcome the weight disadvantage vs. the A3510 in the long term. I do not see Boeing launching a clean sheet 777 replacement any time soon. I think it entirely possible that Airbus and Boeing face off against each other in the 2030s with each having three families. Airbus with the A220, A320 replacement, and A350. Boeing would have the Embraer line, the 737 replacement, and the 787. The cost of a clean sheet design has gotten so high that I think both are going to be extremely reluctant to pull the trigger on one for quite a while. But the MAX fiasco may force Boeing to do so before they really want to, and if they do I think Airbus will feel compelled to follow. And then I think they both will be content to refine and improve their existing families for quite some time. So we will have a world with 5 and 6 abreast narrowbodies and 9 abreast widebodies, and no VLAs. With expected improvements the 787 and A350 will both be able to handle any ULH routes so the role of hubs will decrease in importance, and the attraction of VLAs will be nonexistent, and neither Airbus or Boeing will have the appetite to chance another one. I think both will be content to avoid a head to head matchup in widebodies, with Airbus dominating the larger sizes and Boeing the smaller ones. Airbus will have more comfort but Boeing will have better efficiency. And assuming that the new narrowbodies are comparable, which I expect to be the case, the status will remain pretty much quo, with neither of them dominating and market share staying pretty evenly divided.
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Wed Aug 21, 2019 9:06 pm

Amiga500 wrote:
rrbsztk wrote:
I think the door size precludes containers on the A220. If the container is 84cm by 118cm and take away 4cm of interior space for both sides and bottom you have 80cm by 110cm by contured width of aircraft. Loading those containers with suitcases is going to be a "fun" game of Tetris trying to figure out how to use as much of the 80cm and 110cm as you can.

I suppose if it's light baggage it might be doable but in that scenario the container systems added expense vs light bulk loading of a light load of luggage...


I think the idea was more to have containers for dedicated cargo operations (i.e. shipping amazon parcels) rather than passenger baggage.

So you'd have a couple of containers in each hold with cargo - shoved up against one side - and then bulk loading of baggage at the other side of the door (in each hold).

But, yes, absolutely take your point that below a certain size, use of a container becomes nonsensical.


AkH containers are mostly used for luggage, cargo often on pallets.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Wed Aug 21, 2019 10:56 pm

Erebus wrote:
astuteman wrote:
I think the A330NEO's future is closely tied to if the 797 launches, and if it is successful.
Whilst it is clear that Airbus can do "things" with the A32X, they may elect to pull the trigger on an A330 replacement which as you say, is slightly smaller and lighter to a) better align to the 787 in terms of appeal, and b) limit the 797 from above.


Haven't really thought about this until now, but it must give Boeing pause for thought when trying to close the 797/MoM business case.

It should. But let us not mistake, we are past another A330 update. New structures, new subsystems, GTF, new wing aero/material, and a cross section better optimized for between 787/797.

If the 797 has a large number of launch orders, there will be no business case for a new 8-across.

I cannot come up with an 8-across cross section that fits two LD3 across or pallets that out does the 7-across 797. Is Airbus willing to forgo cargo?

Airbus could sandwich the 797 between the A321xLR and a hypothetical 8-across. But unless Airbus forgos cargo, it is the new plane sandwiched. If the 797 launches with enough orders, then it prohibits Airbus from having a business case. If Airbus goes for too much range, then this hypothetical widebody is too heavy and expensive to compete on TATL missions, Boeing doesn't worry as the ranges beyond the 797 are obviously not part of the business case.

This planning was some of the best times I had in Aerospace engineering. Finding a clear niche is a fun challenge.

Lightsaber
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JayinKitsap
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Thu Aug 22, 2019 1:31 am

The 797 is the dress rehearsal for the NSA, it will be 20 and 40 seats roughly larger than the A321, with bags and payload just sufficient for the pax. The range for the smaller plane will be 500 to 1000 miles further than the A321 and the larger plane with similar range to the A321. It needs to be close to a NB capability to allow for a lot of common parts. Yes the structure will be different between the NMA and NSA for efficiency but lots of the parts and the architecture will be common.

Doing a stretch of the A321 into the A322 et al would require a substantial upgrade, could be difficult to get past grandfathering. A stretch locks Airbus into the A320 series for a decade or two longer. When a NSA does arrive, Airbus will probably need to do a clean sheet NB. In the meantime a 'new' A300 could be viable. It would be 40 & 70 pax bigger than the A321, likely 8ab with a bit more range than the 797 and more cargo capability on shorter flights.

It would be tough to be slotted between the 797 and 787, but it really cannot be slotted between the A321 and 797, as it would be a narrow band.
 
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Thu Aug 22, 2019 2:14 am

Hmm. As for now, A350neo and A220 wouldn't get renewed. They are gonna go through the NEO stage in upcoming decades to come. So cross these 2 out.

It would leave A320neo + A321neo OR A330neo replacement.

For now, I would put my money on A330neo replacement since they are slow seller and B787 have been eating up into their small widebody market which used to be dominated by the old A330.
A330-800neo selling really bad and A330-900neo hasn't picked up the steam yet with sales less than 500 frames.

As for A320neo and A321neo. They are selling like hot cakes, this is the main reason why Airbus won't work on their replacement yet for at least 5-10 years down the line. After the orders dried up, then Airbus would start thinking about them.
 
VV
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Thu Aug 22, 2019 6:19 am

keesje wrote:
VV wrote:
Instead of doing a clean sheet design, perhaps they can revive the A380neo like discussed in the thread below.
viewtopic.php?t=603309&start=50


2016. :old:


2016 is only three years ago.
Back then some people were still very enthusiastic about the aircraft.

What has happened to their opinion?
What happened to slot constrained airports?
What happened to mega-hubs?
 
JonesNL
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Re: Next clean sheet Airbus: A32x successor

Thu Aug 22, 2019 6:39 am

Amiga500 wrote:
JonesNL wrote:

Wouldn't achieving points 1 to 4 be enough to achieve the 5% DOC?


Unlikely.

....
Add them up and you have ~5% assuming everything works perfectly. But there is nothing stopping you retrofitting (2) and (3) to the detail design of existing aircraft - the change is really in what you do at the concept level and how it'd influence the larger architecture of the aircraft and then the benefit you see from that.

....



Wouldn't the same calculation also be valid for a A330 replacement? In that case Airbus won't be doing much the next 5 years besides optimizing current offerings A220-500, A322 and A350-2000. Unless Boeing forces them of course.

lightsaber wrote:
While I would debate percentages and cost impact, the conclusion is the same, we are talking EIS 2030+. I would add there is a tremendous weight savings with titanium additive manufacturing of parts that were previously uneconomical except aluminum. I'm shocked 3D printed titanium can be cheeper than beer can due to all the manufacturing savings (material costs more, assemblies cost less).

What is missing is electrical subsystems. The add weight (about 1500 kg), but save 3% fuel by 2 hours and a little more on longer flights. Maintenance costs for the subsystems cut 50% but the real cost savings is the ability to schedule maintenance better and reduced missed dispatches.

The A320 is already being discussed like the MD-80. That amuses me. It has 15+ years of production left and 40+ more years of service.

Lightsaber



Well I think the A32x is an excellent series of planes and I think Airbus is in love with the plane seeing the amount of cash they are racking up thanks to this plane. But I am not sure if it will be selling like hotcakes in 10-15 years from now. That is why I am pondering about the next bestseller.
 
JonesNL
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Thu Aug 22, 2019 6:42 am

VV wrote:

2016 is only three years ago.
Back then some people were still very enthusiastic about the aircraft.

What has happened to their opinion?
What happened to slot constrained airports?
What happened to mega-hubs?


Not going to happen! Unfortunately, it is a plane nobody is asking for or is not possible to produce. Otherwise Airbus would have started the Neo project for it...
 
Amiga500
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Thu Aug 22, 2019 7:06 am

keesje wrote:
AkH containers are mostly used for luggage, cargo often on pallets.


Well then containers are largely irrelevant to operations. [except LHR T5]
 
Amiga500
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Re: Next clean sheet Airbus: A32x successor

Thu Aug 22, 2019 7:08 am

JonesNL wrote:
Wouldn't the same calculation also be valid for a A330 replacement? In that case Airbus won't be doing much the next 5 years besides optimizing current offerings A220-500, A322 and A350-2000. Unless Boeing forces them of course.


To a large degree yes. However due to the longer mission lengths, fuel forms a larger proportion of a widebody's typical DOC.
 
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Thu Aug 22, 2019 8:37 am

lightsaber wrote:
Erebus wrote:
astuteman wrote:
I think the A330NEO's future is closely tied to if the 797 launches, and if it is successful.
Whilst it is clear that Airbus can do "things" with the A32X, they may elect to pull the trigger on an A330 replacement which as you say, is slightly smaller and lighter to a) better align to the 787 in terms of appeal, and b) limit the 797 from above.


Haven't really thought about this until now, but it must give Boeing pause for thought when trying to close the 797/MoM business case.


I cannot come up with an 8-across cross section that fits two LD3 across or pallets that out does the 7-across 797.


That is easy, just launch 5 years later and take the improvements that the engines will offer to compensate for you wider fuselage. You will then win easily on CASM. Even more easy if the 797 just uses a LEAP 1.5 and your A350 would use a Ultrafan something engine.
 
FluidFlow
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Thu Aug 22, 2019 8:51 am

seahawk wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Erebus wrote:

Haven't really thought about this until now, but it must give Boeing pause for thought when trying to close the 797/MoM business case.


I cannot come up with an 8-across cross section that fits two LD3 across or pallets that out does the 7-across 797.


That is easy, just launch 5 years later and take the improvements that the engines will offer to compensate for you wider fuselage. You will then win easily on CASM. Even more easy if the 797 just uses a LEAP 1.5 and your A350 would use a Ultrafan something engine.


Boeing will also still have the history of the 767 in mind and how the newer 8ab A330 impacted on the 767. Thats why I also think an early launch of the 797 is such a difficult business case. If they only use an improved LEAP and fly in 2026-2027 Airbus might announce their A330 replacement for 2032 with better engines and size right on top of the 797 to also compete vs the low end of the 787.

I just do not see any business case right now for B and also for A to launch any clean sheet until after 2025. Right now it is wait and see and upgrade the available products. The most exciting that might come is Airbus announce the stretch of their models, while Boeing will announce modifications to the B787 and MAX-10 to be able to pressure the A350 and A321.

We will see who loses their cool first and announces a new clean sheet. Because as it looks now it will be easier to react than act in the current market.
 
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Thu Aug 22, 2019 10:12 am

FluidFlow wrote:
......


Such is life in the duopoly world. Most money can be made by a modus operandi of "do nothing"...
 
Bambel
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Thu Aug 22, 2019 10:59 am

I think it's interesting that the discussion is manly between Airbus and Boeing. OTOH there is China and Russia with several developments. So i guess the only "given" clean sheet in the next 15 years will be NSA for Boeing but otherwise i think both will wait and see what new market entrants will offer. Airbus doesn't have any "legacy" planes in it's lineup, even the A320 family as the oldest one has tons of potential in it. If you look how far (and in a way too far) Boeing developed the 737, Airbus can do the same but without the need for a MCAS or similar things. A CFRP wing, H2/E2 and whatnot will make a great plane, but what if in 15 years airlines with large A320 fleets ask for a minimum-change reengined again A320? Maybe with adjusted length but otherwise quick and cheap to market.

B.
 
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Thu Aug 22, 2019 11:16 am

Bambel wrote:
I think it's interesting that the discussion is manly between Airbus and Boeing. OTOH there is China and Russia with several developments.
B.


Russian aircraft manufacturers have yet to prove that they can support their customers reliable with spare parts in a commercially viable time and Chinese developments first and foremost have to prove to be safe. Both will probably not materialize in the next 15 years. For Russian manufacturers the political environment they are in is just too toxic and for Chinese manufacturers, only time can prove their products are safe and that costs time.
 
Amiga500
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Thu Aug 22, 2019 11:21 am

FluidFlow wrote:
Bambel wrote:
I think it's interesting that the discussion is manly between Airbus and Boeing. OTOH there is China and Russia with several developments.
B.


Russian aircraft manufacturers have yet to prove that they can support their customers reliable with spare parts in a commercially viable time and Chinese developments first and foremost have to prove to be safe. Both will probably not materialize in the next 15 years. For Russian manufacturers the political environment they are in is just too toxic and for Chinese manufacturers, only time can prove their products are safe and that costs time.


... and given the shjt AVIC have been producing for commercial aircraft, I'm not sure they are even at the start line yet.
 
FluidFlow
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Thu Aug 22, 2019 11:39 am

Amiga500 wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:
Bambel wrote:
I think it's interesting that the discussion is manly between Airbus and Boeing. OTOH there is China and Russia with several developments.
B.


Russian aircraft manufacturers have yet to prove that they can support their customers reliable with spare parts in a commercially viable time and Chinese developments first and foremost have to prove to be safe. Both will probably not materialize in the next 15 years. For Russian manufacturers the political environment they are in is just too toxic and for Chinese manufacturers, only time can prove their products are safe and that costs time.


... and given the shjt AVIC have been producing for commercial aircraft, I'm not sure they are even at the start line yet.


I did not even know that they produced a commercial aircraft, only their military products and a lot of them are licence builds and not really Chinese developments.
 
Amiga500
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Thu Aug 22, 2019 11:42 am

FluidFlow wrote:
I did not even know that they produced a commercial aircraft, only their military products and a lot of them are licence builds and not really Chinese developments.


They produce parts - but most of them are scrapped since quality is so crap.

A "bad" example is the CSeries mid fuselage. They've been at it for nearly 10 years and haven't built even one* fit to go on an aircraft. Eventually the deal was pulled - but only within the last 12 months. They are now all being made in Belfast.


*I literally mean not a single mid-barrel from SAC/AVIC has been fit for use on an aircraft.
 
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keesje
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Thu Aug 22, 2019 11:52 am

Amiga500 wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:
Bambel wrote:
I think it's interesting that the discussion is manly between Airbus and Boeing. OTOH there is China and Russia with several developments.
B.


Russian aircraft manufacturers have yet to prove that they can support their customers reliable with spare parts in a commercially viable time and Chinese developments first and foremost have to prove to be safe. Both will probably not materialize in the next 15 years. For Russian manufacturers the political environment they are in is just too toxic and for Chinese manufacturers, only time can prove their products are safe and that costs time.


... and given the shjt AVIC have been producing for commercial aircraft, I'm not sure they are even at the start line yet.


We have to be careful with our western feel good quality pre-occupations. China has an excellent safety record these days (no hull loss since 2012) and the MAX didn't come out of China. They were the ones to correctly ground it. As first, when Boeing & FAA were in steep denial, trying to deflect, confuse, blame others..using those western feel good quality pre-occupations
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
Amiga500
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Thu Aug 22, 2019 11:56 am

keesje wrote:
We have to be careful with our western feel good quality pre-occupations. China has an excellent safety record these days (no hull loss since 2012) and the MAX didn't come out of China. They were the ones to correctly ground it. As first, when Boeing & FAA were in steep denial, trying to deflect, confuse, blame others..using those western feel good quality pre-occupations


Has the entire ARJ-21 fleet even hit the flight hours of either of the MAX aircraft that came down? Probably not!
 
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keesje
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Thu Aug 22, 2019 12:10 pm

Amiga500 wrote:
keesje wrote:
We have to be careful with our western feel good quality pre-occupations. China has an excellent safety record these days (no hull loss since 2012) and the MAX didn't come out of China. They were the ones to correctly ground it. As first, when Boeing & FAA were in steep denial, trying to deflect, confuse, blame others..using those western feel good quality pre-occupations


Has the entire ARJ-21 fleet even hit the flight hours of either of the MAX aircraft that came down? Probably not!


Agree, the MAX was certified much quicker and brought into service than the ARJ-21. :expressionless:
The FAA MAX correction by CAAC must have felt like an engine stall for many.

Back on topic, I looked at an optimized A330 fuselage with a new composites wingbox, wing, landing gear and engines in 2013, but Airbus decided to add capability instead of reducing it with the A330NEO's. (and used the A330-700 name for the Beluga XL..)

Image
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
Amiga500
Posts: 2294
Joined: Tue Mar 03, 2015 8:22 am

Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Thu Aug 22, 2019 12:26 pm

keesje wrote:
I looked at an optimized A330 fuselage with a new composites wingbox, wing, landing gear and engines in 2013, but Airbus decided to add capability instead of reducing it with the A330NEO's. ]


But at that point, you might as well redo the fuselage in Al-Li to gain the weight saving and fatigue improvements (or CFRP).
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 414
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Thu Aug 22, 2019 12:31 pm

As many realise, with the A220, A320neo, A330neo, A350 lined up, Airbus could sit on their hands and do nothing for 10 years. Perhaps a stretch here, a neo there.

But Airbus doesnt intend to sit on their hands, they are serious about acquiring an edge.

https://airbusventures.vc/

So in my opinion by 2025 Airbus is going to present an A380 that has the fuel burn of a current generation B77W, slightly higher than a A350, a 40% fuel burn reduction.

The same technology will be applied to the A350neo, resulting in a 30% fuel burn reduction.
 
Newbiepilot
Posts: 3639
Joined: Tue Aug 30, 2016 10:18 pm

Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Thu Aug 22, 2019 1:43 pm

Containers can be adapted to airplanes. It isn’t a deciding factor any more. The 737 is now offered with cargo containers

Image

https://www.mro-network.com/maintenance ... boeing-737

A little volume is lost since it has to fit under the door, but this is made up for by the fact that the 737-8 has bigger cargo holds than the A320neo and the 737-10 also will have more cargo volume than the A321.
 
TObound
Posts: 309
Joined: Mon May 27, 2019 12:54 am

Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Thu Aug 22, 2019 2:00 pm

1) Cargo handling is not relevant for in the 220 size/range class. Much more relevant in the 321LR size/range category.

2) "Gaps" in the lineup are not as relevant as people think. What matters is sales and demand in those gaps.

3) Profit share matters more than market share. A $5B clean sheet has to have substantially more sales at higher margins to beat out the business case for a $1B rewing and stretch. And a full cleansheet with composite fuse will be > $10B.

4) Timeline matters. If you know better materials, production techniques, engine tech is coming, why bother with a cleansheet now? Just rewing and stretch, take 30-40% market share for a few years and then launch a substantially better product.

There's a lot of folks who think the 330NEO is weak in this thread. They don't get the point. It was a cheap development program that took sales from the 787 and offered enough of a competitive threat to broadly depress 787 margins. It's done it's job spectacularly.
 
TObound
Posts: 309
Joined: Mon May 27, 2019 12:54 am

Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Thu Aug 22, 2019 2:06 pm

keesje wrote:
Amiga500 wrote:
keesje wrote:
We have to be careful with our western feel good quality pre-occupations. China has an excellent safety record these days (no hull loss since 2012) and the MAX didn't come out of China. They were the ones to correctly ground it. As first, when Boeing & FAA were in steep denial, trying to deflect, confuse, blame others..using those western feel good quality pre-occupations


Has the entire ARJ-21 fleet even hit the flight hours of either of the MAX aircraft that came down? Probably not!


Agree, the MAX was certified much quicker and brought into service than the ARJ-21. :expressionless:
The FAA MAX correction by CAAC must have felt like an engine stall for many.

Back on topic, I looked at an optimized A330 fuselage with a new composites wingbox, wing, landing gear and engines in 2013, but Airbus decided to add capability instead of reducing it with the A330NEO's. (and used the A330-700 name for the Beluga XL..)

Image


An A330 sized MOM wouldn't fit into a narrowbody gate. That will be an issue.

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