HP69
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Thu Aug 22, 2019 2:09 pm

I have insider info that the next Airbus clean-sheet will be the A390. It will replace the A380 and will be a 3-5-3 seating configuration for a 3-class capacity of about 450.
 
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keesje
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Thu Aug 22, 2019 2:17 pm

Newbiepilot wrote:
Containers can be adapted to airplanes. It isn’t a deciding factor any more. The 737 is now offered with cargo containers

Image

https://www.mro-network.com/maintenance ... boeing-737

A little volume is lost since it has to fit under the door, but this is made up for by the fact that the 737-8 has bigger cargo holds than the A320neo and the 737-10 also will have more cargo volume than the A321.


An A320, C919, MS21 AKH container can do a round 3.500lb - 1.500kg, this 737 container 400 kg. Getting in bags efficiently into this flat one would be a Tetris games, as someone mentioned. It seems no one the Flexible Loading System so far. Let's wait a bit before we declare the container issue not a deciding factor any more for the 737 - A320.

Telair / GE tries and tell why they offer these new containers:

What is the loading time for a container?
A single container can be loaded in less than one minute – from the loading dolly to aircraft lower hold. A 737-800 with a full complement of 11 containers can be unloaded with two loading teams in under 6 minutes.

What is driving interest in the FLS?
The FLS allows airline and cargo carriers to meet the increasing freight demands of e-commerce without compromising schedules. The system can efficiently load both containers and bulk freight and baggage.

Are there other benefits?
Yes. They include offsite container loading and sorting, faster turn times, smaller loading teams, improved loader ergonomics, and a weather and tamper resistant container.

http://flexibleloadingsystem.com/home/
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seahawk
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Thu Aug 22, 2019 2:51 pm

You are all forgetting the most important part of a new plane the engines. Look at hte finanacial results of RR, PW and GE and tell me they are able to launch a fully new engine program every 5 years.
 
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keesje
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Thu Aug 22, 2019 3:40 pm

TObound wrote:
keesje wrote:
Amiga500 wrote:

Has the entire ARJ-21 fleet even hit the flight hours of either of the MAX aircraft that came down? Probably not!


Agree, the MAX was certified much quicker and brought into service than the ARJ-21. :expressionless:
The FAA MAX correction by CAAC must have felt like an engine stall for many.

Back on topic, I looked at an optimized A330 fuselage with a new composites wingbox, wing, landing gear and engines in 2013, but Airbus decided to add capability instead of reducing it with the A330NEO's. (and used the A330-700 name for the Beluga XL..)

Image


An A330 sized MOM wouldn't fit into a narrowbody gate. That will be an issue.


Span around 44 m, Code D gates, like 757 and 767.

Image
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TObound
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Thu Aug 22, 2019 5:35 pm

keesje wrote:
TObound wrote:
keesje wrote:

Agree, the MAX was certified much quicker and brought into service than the ARJ-21. :expressionless:
The FAA MAX correction by CAAC must have felt like an engine stall for many.

Back on topic, I looked at an optimized A330 fuselage with a new composites wingbox, wing, landing gear and engines in 2013, but Airbus decided to add capability instead of reducing it with the A330NEO's. (and used the A330-700 name for the Beluga XL..)

Image


An A330 sized MOM wouldn't fit into a narrowbody gate. That will be an issue.


Span around 44 m, Code D gates, like 757 and 767.

Image


Yes. But it needs to fit a Code C gate to really sell. How many airlines around the the world do you think would be happy paying higher fees to use a Code D gate for short haul? And how do you think airports would deal with a sudden shift in traffic from Code C to Code D gates (in many places often reserved for international service)?
 
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keesje
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Thu Aug 22, 2019 5:56 pm

TObound wrote:
keesje wrote:
TObound wrote:

An A330 sized MOM wouldn't fit into a narrowbody gate. That will be an issue.


Span around 44 m, Code D gates, like 757 and 767.

Image


Yes. But it needs to fit a Code C gate to really sell. How many airlines around the the world do you think would be happy paying higher fees to use a Code D gate for short haul? And how do you think airports would deal with a sudden shift in traffic from Code C to Code D gates (in many places often reserved for international service)?


This category aircraft, (A310, 757, 767, NMA probably) uses those gates today. This isn't for LHR-HAM 6 times a day.

Image
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ewt340
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Thu Aug 22, 2019 6:43 pm

TObound wrote:
keesje wrote:
Amiga500 wrote:

Has the entire ARJ-21 fleet even hit the flight hours of either of the MAX aircraft that came down? Probably not!


Agree, the MAX was certified much quicker and brought into service than the ARJ-21. :expressionless:
The FAA MAX correction by CAAC must have felt like an engine stall for many.

Back on topic, I looked at an optimized A330 fuselage with a new composites wingbox, wing, landing gear and engines in 2013, but Airbus decided to add capability instead of reducing it with the A330NEO's. (and used the A330-700 name for the Beluga XL..)

Image


An A330 sized MOM wouldn't fit into a narrowbody gate. That will be an issue.


As long as it's not too long, Many airports could adapt. Feels like Airbus 8-abreast MoM the size of A310 and A300-600 would work nice enough for Airbus.
 
TObound
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Thu Aug 22, 2019 7:07 pm

keesje wrote:

This category aircraft, (A310, 757, 767, NMA probably) uses those gates today. This isn't for LHR-HAM 6 times a day.



I'm thinking of Alan Joyce saying the NMA would do well on Sydney-Melbourne. I think the biggest market is in getting a lot more out of the existing infrastructure. If you can replace a 200 seat A321 with a 250 seat or even 300 seat aircraft with no change to the infrastructure, while still improving efficiency, that plane would be an incredible seller.
 
Amiga500
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Thu Aug 22, 2019 9:01 pm

TObound wrote:
Yes. But it needs to fit a Code C gate to really sell. How many airlines around the the world do you think would be happy paying higher fees to use a Code D gate for short haul? And how do you think airports would deal with a sudden shift in traffic from Code C to Code D gates (in many places often reserved for international service)?


Well, if the 777X debugs moveable wingtips...

An 8AB fuselage length seating 280 in sardine class shouldn't bust the length limit I'd have thought (?)
 
2175301
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Fri Aug 23, 2019 1:31 am

So will it be an A360, A370, or A390.

I've never heard what happened (if anything) to A360 or A370 prior to the A380.

Or perhaps a A325 or something of that nature....

I look forward to years of informative debate (somewhat) over the numbering sequence question...

Have a great day,
 
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keesje
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Fri Aug 23, 2019 6:33 am

A310s fly 9 abreast too. Airbus maybe could maybe adjust sidewalls a bit to make it slightly more bearable on short flights..

https://www.airliners.net/photo/S7-Sibe ... 204/876659
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Amiga500
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Fri Aug 23, 2019 9:44 am

2175301 wrote:
I've never heard what happened (if anything) to A360 or A370 prior to the A380.


Nothing.

Its the marketing crowd's stupid fkking obsession with using the number 8 in the belief that it will make large Asian corporations shell out hundreds of millions to buy aircraft because the name has a supposedly "lucky" 8 in it.

A380-800 [one of the biggest program flops of all time]
787-8 [one of the most difficult entry into services of all time and I don't think Boeing ever sold a 787-8 at a profit]
A350-800 [stillborn]
A330-800 [on life support]
777-8 [on life support before even being born]

So obviously use of the "lucky" 8 has really worked.



The above should have been (following their sequencing) something like:
A350-200 [and what we now know as A350 would have been A360]
787-200
A360-200
777-500
 
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keesje
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Fri Aug 23, 2019 9:53 am

Most likely the most opportunistic gap seems inbetween NB and WB, were the A310 used to b.

As Airbus seems to have been signalling during their latest formation flight..

Image

:whistleblower:
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Amiga500
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Fri Aug 23, 2019 10:59 am

keesje wrote:
Most likely the most opportunistic gap seems inbetween NB and WB, were the A310 used to b.


That is where Boeing are aiming with their MoM. They are having trouble closing the case* - while Airbus would not be "cannibalising" their own expensive programme in 787, they would be cannibalising the A330neo - which would seriously pee off RR. So why would a MoM business case be much different for Airbus than for Boeing?

I'm open to the suggestion - but I'd need convincing how it works for Airbus when Boeing are having such difficulty making the numbers add up.


*evidenced by them not launching the thing years ago.
 
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Erebus
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Fri Aug 23, 2019 11:19 am

Amiga500 wrote:
A380-800 [one of the biggest program flops of all time]
787-8 [one of the most difficult entry into services of all time and I don't think Boeing ever sold a 787-8 at a profit]
A350-800 [stillborn]
A330-800 [on life support]
777-8 [on life support before even being born]

So obviously use of the "lucky" 8 has really worked.


Missed one...747-8i
 
Amiga500
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Fri Aug 23, 2019 11:47 am

Erebus wrote:
Amiga500 wrote:
A380-800 [one of the biggest program flops of all time]
787-8 [one of the most difficult entry into services of all time and I don't think Boeing ever sold a 787-8 at a profit]
A350-800 [stillborn]
A330-800 [on life support]
777-8 [on life support before even being born]

So obviously use of the "lucky" 8 has really worked.


Missed one...747-8i


Oh yes, good spot.

Another one to add to the collection of "8 brings good luck".
 
cledaybuck
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Fri Aug 23, 2019 11:58 am

Amiga500 wrote:
Erebus wrote:
Amiga500 wrote:
A380-800 [one of the biggest program flops of all time]
787-8 [one of the most difficult entry into services of all time and I don't think Boeing ever sold a 787-8 at a profit]
A350-800 [stillborn]
A330-800 [on life support]
777-8 [on life support before even being born]

So obviously use of the "lucky" 8 has really worked.


Missed one...747-8i


Oh yes, good spot.

Another one to add to the collection of "8 brings good luck".

737-8 :duck:
As we celebrate mediocrity, all the boys upstairs want to see, how much you'll pay for what you used to get for free.
 
JonesNL
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Fri Aug 23, 2019 12:01 pm

So, you guys are saying that the likes of A220-800 or A350-8888 are inevitable in the near future...
 
Amiga500
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Fri Aug 23, 2019 12:04 pm

cledaybuck wrote:
Amiga500 wrote:
Erebus wrote:

Missed one...747-8i


Oh yes, good spot.

Another one to add to the collection of "8 brings good luck".

737-8 :duck:


Thought about it - but then decided to give it a bye ball...

We've had the
737 jurassic -100, -200
737 classic -300, -400, -500
737 NG -600, -700, -800, -900

The max largely following on from the NG in -7, -8, -9 (and then -10 as a late addition) isn't a massive departure (particularly given the change to single figures on the 787 and 747, even if those started at stupid. numbers). Sticking with the old sequence and having 737-1000, -737-1100, 737-1200 is a little... ungainly.


If you want to add the 737-8 to the list you can. It would also fall into the "lucky 8" bracket. Just ask Lion Air or Ethiopian...
Last edited by Amiga500 on Fri Aug 23, 2019 12:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Armadillo1
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Fri Aug 23, 2019 12:04 pm

737-800NG alone keep the reputation of number 8 high.
 
Amiga500
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Fri Aug 23, 2019 12:06 pm

JonesNL wrote:
So, you guys are saying that the likes of A220-800 or A350-8888 are inevitable in the near future...


The A388-888 and the B788-888 are in the pipeline and are sure fire winners.
 
Amiga500
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Fri Aug 23, 2019 12:07 pm

Armadillo1 wrote:
737-800NG alone keep the reputation of number 8 high.


But it wasn't named -800 for dopey marketing reasons.
 
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Fri Aug 23, 2019 12:30 pm

Armadillo1 wrote:
737-800NG alone keep the reputation of number 8 high.


You can add DC-8 and MD-80 too but I think all these have some kind of logical sequence to it.
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Fri Aug 23, 2019 12:36 pm

Amiga500 wrote:
That is where Boeing are aiming with their MoM. They are having trouble closing the case* - while Airbus would not be "cannibalising" their own expensive programme in 787, they would be cannibalising the A330neo - which would seriously pee off RR. So why would a MoM business case be much different for Airbus than for Boeing?

I'm open to the suggestion - but I'd need convincing how it works for Airbus when Boeing are having such difficulty making the numbers add up.

If RR isn't on the 797 they would be happy to be sole source the Airbus MOM. The A330NEO in 5 years time will probably not be getting any orders. I expect production of the A330NEO to end after around 300 aircraft.

The A330 cross section could live on with a A300NEO sized aircraft with a small carbon wing. The current A330-800 fuselage length could be the longest version of the family with a shorter version providing greater range.
 
Ziyulu
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Fri Aug 23, 2019 1:01 pm

A triple deck aircraft to replace the A380.
 
Amiga500
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Fri Aug 23, 2019 1:42 pm

Just looking at the A330...

From 2001 to 2009, the A332 outdelivered the A333 every year. Since 2009, the A333 has outdelivered the A332 every year. What has changed?

In 2008, Airbus offered the 235T A330-3X2 WV054. In 2000, the MTOW was 233T (WV022 or WV052).

Is an extra 5 tonne really worth so much extra in terms of payload-range?

A google brought me to this post by KarelXWB. Bottom line is the 242T A333 can carry MZFW approx ~4500nm. But airlines rarely fly at MZFW - premium products yielding more are less dense. So is that critical range really ~5500nm?

Would a good conclusion be, any 8AB replacement must be able to efficiently fly 5500nm without overly reducing seat density below optimum before it is a goer?

I started guesstimating what that'd do for weight and wing area...

Taking the A332 as a baseline and an EIS of 2030, engines that are maybe around 30% more efficient should see the fuel volume required drop 30% (yeah, very simple, but it'll do).
So that is a tank volume of 100,000 L, not 130,000 L. That in itself drops MTOW by ~ 32T (~13%).
Which means wing area can drop by ~13% for the same L/D.
But of course, the smaller wing weighs less... a wing is about 11% overall airframe weight, so 13% (this number will change) of 11% is a further 2T (this number will change) off the OEW.
The smaller engines will weigh less (~1.5T each).
The smaller wings require a smaller empennage (~0.5T).
The smaller MTOW can make do with a lighter undercarriage (prob 80% of the original weight).

... and the circle of weight saving continues

You'd likely end up with an MTOW of around 180T, an OEW of around 90T and engines needing around 240 kN (rated) thrust from aiming the A330-200 fuselage at a 180 seat 3-class capacity over 5500nm.


What would that give you over the 787-8 or the A330-800? Worth doing?
 
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Faro
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Sat Aug 24, 2019 12:03 pm

Agree with Keesje...it's too early for a cleansheet design when the A32X families still have much development potential in them and the A330NEO is just entering service...

Cleansheets constitute monumental economic risk...the attraction as well as the payoff have to be much greater than they are today...


Faro
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lightsaber
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Sat Aug 24, 2019 5:20 pm

Faro wrote:
Agree with Keesje...it's too early for a cleansheet design when the A32X families still have much development potential in them and the A330NEO is just entering service...

Cleansheets constitute monumental economic risk...the attraction as well as the payoff have to be much greater than they are today...


Faro

Cleansheet aircraft are a huge risk. But unless a company periodically designs a new aircraft, they lose skills. See 787... A rewing/re-engine is enough (in particular as new subsystems, probably a stretch, and new gear are involved).

Airbus should worry about current aircraft, but needs a small team readying the next aircraft. They must start real work within 4 years or skill sets will go stale.

So they have time, but not forever. If there is no market opportunities, then there will be more issues with the next aircraft.

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Sokes
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Sun Aug 25, 2019 5:48 am

lightsaber wrote:
Cleansheet aircraft are a huge risk. But unless a company periodically designs a new aircraft, they lose skills. See 787...
Lightsaber


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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Sun Aug 25, 2019 7:09 am

CHRISBA35X wrote:
A vast 12 abreast megatwin with 10% better fuel burn as a 779X but 25-30% more floorspace and similar range. That is how the next VLA will come about. Whether Airbus or Boeing (or COMAC?) build it, i guess we'll find out.


I thought 11 abreast (3x5x3) was the most densely permitted under FAA regulations. How would 12 abreast work?
 
Armadillo1
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Sun Aug 25, 2019 8:24 am

no 12-abreast in this reality. triple or quadro deckers, but even 11 is questioned.

wide fuselage possible, but not for more abreast at the same level
https://patents.google.com/patent/US4066227

actually, triple decker possible with less wet area compared to 380.
 
WIederling
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Sun Aug 25, 2019 8:35 am

Amiga500 wrote:
Just looking at the A330...

From 2001 to 2009, the A332 outdelivered the A333 every year. Since 2009, the A333 has outdelivered the A332 every year. What has changed?

magic range.

MTOW and thus range.
the A332 was introduced when "shorter fuselage" plus "center tank enabled" plus "higher MTOW" transceded that magic range.

years on and a handful of MTOW markups under its belt the A333 exceeds this magic range in about the same way.

You see the same for A319, A320, A321.
used to be a time A319 and A320 were matched in deliveries.
Today A319 is more or less at zero while A320 and A321 share near equal in deliveries.
Recent faster near step change via CEO to NEO ( and much improved winglets )
Murphy is an optimist
 
WIederling
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Sun Aug 25, 2019 8:38 am

PacoMartin wrote:
I thought 11 abreast (3x5x3) was the most densely permitted under FAA regulations. How would 12 abreast work?


requirement:
no more than 2 seats to cross to reach an aisle for evacuation.

This is fulfilled for 3-6-3 ( or to make it clearer : 3-3|3-3, two NB arrangements side by side )
Murphy is an optimist
 
Armadillo1
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Sun Aug 25, 2019 8:52 am

WIederling wrote:
PacoMartin wrote:
I thought 11 abreast (3x5x3) was the most densely permitted under FAA regulations. How would 12 abreast work?


requirement:
no more than 2 seats to cross to reach an aisle for evacuation.

This is fulfilled for 3-6-3 ( or to make it clearer : 3-3|3-3, two NB arrangements side by side )

very teoreticaly

3-6-3 need more doors to deboard than 3-3 and more staying in aisle to wait for. or in terms of "range to nearest door"
actually, 3-6-3 equal to 3-3 with one side only available to evacuate
or doubled one-side exits capability.

this is if no more rules will applied after ssj and similar crash evaluation.
 
CFRPwingALbody
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Sun Aug 25, 2019 9:35 am

I think a replacement for the A300-600R/F and early A330-200 / -300 is the most likely development for Airbus.
The A321XLR has roughly the same passenger capacity as the A310 had. With a A322 stretched A321XLR (possibly with MTOW increase and higher trust PIP engines) the A310 definetly has been replaced. But the A32xNEO has A huge backlog and huge demand. The A330/A340FAL is underutilized because the A330NEO doesn't have sufficient demand. I think with a ~€5billion budget a CFRP D-size wing MTOW 180-200mT and a new nose section for the A33x can be developed. The new nose should cause the cabin to be horizontal on the ground. With this and introduction of more electric system Airbus should be able to offer:
A331, A331F, A332, A333?, A338, A338F and A339 (And MRTT versions replacing the A310MMRT and A330MMRT). This should provide enough demand to fill an upgraded A330FAL (rate 8-10 /month).

Another development I would love to see from Airbus (Canada) is a clean sheet replacement for the CRJ's. Three variants with ~60, ~80 and ~100 pax 18"×30" capability.
If both these developments happen Airbus (& ATR / DRA) offering span from 5pax single engine helicopters to the 400pax A350-1000.
To fill some gaps between the Helicopters and the regional turboprops, Airbus will introduce Racer compound helicopters. AFAIK one of the reasons the X6 development was shelved, was the development of the Racer (build on the X4/H160) for cleansky2. The X6 development replacement for the puma helicopters (H215 & H225) and NH90 is also a likely development.
 
WIederling
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Sun Aug 25, 2019 9:37 am

Armadillo1 wrote:
WIederling wrote:
PacoMartin wrote:
I thought 11 abreast (3x5x3) was the most densely permitted under FAA regulations. How would 12 abreast work?


requirement:
no more than 2 seats to cross to reach an aisle for evacuation.

This is fulfilled for 3-6-3 ( or to make it clearer : 3-3|3-3, two NB arrangements side by side )

very theoreticaly

obviously. no 12 across around. but 12 across is legal in that context.
The exponential relation between fuselage width and cross section kills it for a single deck design.

Armadillo1 wrote:
3-6-3 need more doors to deboard than 3-3 and more staying in aisle to wait for. or in terms of "range to nearest door"
actually, 3-6-3 equal to 3-3 with one side only available to evacuate
or doubled one-side exits capability.


you are mixing evacuation rules set per aisle and per door.

Today you also have "any revenue seat must have 2 evac pathes available"
( kills any 747 like nose seats. obviously all rules must be met.)
Murphy is an optimist
 
Armadillo1
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Sun Aug 25, 2019 9:39 am

legal, legal, but meet the rules make it pointless economicaly because it very little increase seat count per plane length unit.

may be more sense make lav, etc in the middle.
 
WIederling
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Sun Aug 25, 2019 11:56 am

Armadillo1 wrote:
legal, legal, but meet the rules make it pointless economically because it very little increase seat count per plane length unit.

may be more sense make lav, etc in the middle.


it is careless to not differentiate between "not legal" and "no commercial benefit".

Lavs can be in "illegal seating space", right?
Thus if you can move them elsewhere you would avoid placing them in areas eligible for seating.
Murphy is an optimist
 
AirbusA6
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Sun Aug 25, 2019 1:36 pm

I can't see Airbus launching a clean sheet programme for a long time, not until technology has significantly moved on.

If Airbus want to fill the gap between the A321 and A338 then a stretched and rewinged A321 makes far more financial sense. It won't suit all operators, but will be far cheaper and less risky.

Even if Boeing launch a 797 it doesn't follow that Airbus have to respond with a direct rival, most airlines have mixed Boeing/Airbus fleets now anyway, especially with widebodies and it makes more financial sense for Airbus and Boeing to have separate sweet spots and thus avoid direct financial battles
it's the bus to stansted (now renamed National Express a6 to ruin my username)
 
1989worstyear
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Sun Aug 25, 2019 5:08 pm

bob75013 wrote:
rjsampson wrote:
1989worstyear wrote:
The A320 is "future-proof" because it represents THE pinnacle of NB aircraft design, and will still be in production until flying becomes unfeasible due to GHG emissions.


...not exactly sure what that means. On the one hand, you say the A320, EIS in 1988, still represents the "THE pinnacle of NB aircraft design?" And that's when "innovation died?" I can't imagine others would agree at all with that..

1989worstyear wrote:
Had progress continued into the 90s and 2000's, the 737NG/MAX and A320 would have likely have gone the way of the 757 by now.


I'd guess that most people would feel that "progress" most certainly DID continue into the 90s, 2000s, and beyond. What definition of "progress" are you referring to, that stopped? If your said "progress" had stopped, killing off the A320/737: What is your vision of what the "pinnacle" of the NB be like today?

Guys -- am I missing something?


only sarcasm


No sarcasm, but perhaps I should have been more clear. Airbus set the bar for modern transport aircraft design when they introduced the A320 in 1988 - and it still exists in either its original variant (-200 CEO) or a simple re-engined variant introduced only five years ago. A 30 year old -200 is about 95% identical to a brand new NEO, and Airbus has even admitted this.

Therefore, as many have indicated, it will take a 1987-1988 style technological step in order render the A320-200 obsolete, which likely won't happen until mid-century. At that point, CO2 regulations might have reduced the demand for NB aircraft to even make it worthwhile.
Stuck at age 15 thanks to the certification date of the A320-200 and my parents' decision to postpone having a kid by 3 years. At least there's Dignitas...
 
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NameOmitted
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Sun Aug 25, 2019 5:43 pm

Hypothetically, how would an electric or a hybrid electric drive system change an airframe design?

Assuming the batteries are the heavy part, do they get centered in the wing box, or distributed throughout?

If it's an electric hybrid, since an electric motor can be so small, does the nacelle get buried in a slender wing? Does the generator get placed in the fuselage low to the ground for ease of maintenance?
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Sun Aug 25, 2019 6:05 pm

NameOmitted wrote:
Hypothetically, how would an electric or a hybrid electric drive system change an airframe design?

Assuming the batteries are the heavy part, do they get centered in the wing box, or distributed throughout?

If it's an electric hybrid, since an electric motor can be so small, does the nacelle get buried in a slender wing? Does the generator get placed in the fuselage low to the ground for ease of maintenance?

The motor is easiest. Current technology is most efficient with a ducted fan. Or open rotor. It is best to couple the motor/gearbox to the fan

Batteries have limited energy storage, so we are talking about shorter range aircraft. Since rail and road conoete, excluding island hopping, the market for <250nm trips has really shrunk, in particular thanks to the requirement to show up 2 or 3 hours early. When we get to autonomous cars, why bother flying for <4 hour trips?

I see fuel cells in the body as the hybrid option.

But flights over 2 hours won't be changed for a long time.

Lightsaber
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 416
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Sun Aug 25, 2019 7:07 pm

lightsaber wrote:
NameOmitted wrote:
Hypothetically, how would an electric or a hybrid electric drive system change an airframe design?

Assuming the batteries are the heavy part, do they get centered in the wing box, or distributed throughout?

If it's an electric hybrid, since an electric motor can be so small, does the nacelle get buried in a slender wing? Does the generator get placed in the fuselage low to the ground for ease of maintenance?

The motor is easiest. Current technology is most efficient with a ducted fan. Or open rotor. It is best to couple the motor/gearbox to the fan

Batteries have limited energy storage, so we are talking about shorter range aircraft. Since rail and road conoete, excluding island hopping, the market for <250nm trips has really shrunk, in particular thanks to the requirement to show up 2 or 3 hours early. When we get to autonomous cars, why bother flying for <4 hour trips?

I see fuel cells in the body as the hybrid option.

But flights over 2 hours won't be changed for a long time.

Lightsaber


The motor is not the easiest as electric motors are lighter than piston engines, but aren't matching turbine engines in terms of power to weight ratio.
For the same power, you'll need a heavier electric motor.
 
Sokes
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Mon Aug 26, 2019 4:43 am

The obvious solution for battery use are local buses and local delivery vans. How many % of those vehicles already run on battery?
A CO2 neutral world would require some form of electricity storage. And I do believe cars will drive hybrid in a few years. But even in a CO2 free world planes would fly on fuels derived from palm oil or mais.
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
CHRISBA35X
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Mon Aug 26, 2019 8:25 am

PacoMartin wrote:
CHRISBA35X wrote:
A vast 12 abreast megatwin with 10% better fuel burn as a 779X but 25-30% more floorspace and similar range. That is how the next VLA will come about. Whether Airbus or Boeing (or COMAC?) build it, i guess we'll find out.


I thought 11 abreast (3x5x3) was the most densely permitted under FAA regulations. How would 12 abreast work?


I understood it was to do with exits - might well be ok with more exits and wider aisles.
 
WIederling
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Mon Aug 26, 2019 8:43 am

Sokes wrote:
The obvious solution for battery use are local buses and local delivery vans. How many % of those vehicles already run on battery?
A CO2 neutral world would require some form of electricity storage. And I do believe cars will drive hybrid in a few years. But even in a CO2 free world planes would fly on fuels derived from palm oil or mais.


Deutsche Post here is busily replacing IC engined delivery vehicles
with these ( increasing length of delivery routes serviced over time):
Image
see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/StreetScooter
Murphy is an optimist
 
estorilm
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Mon Aug 26, 2019 2:05 pm

It's funny now little clear answers there are to this question - really shows you how well-placed they've found themselves in the market, after juggling NEO projects and extensive MTOW increases over the past few decades.

A350 freighter, maybe a larger ATR (but that might cut into the A220 a bit, perhaps not if it's optimized for very short-hop stuff?) But even those likely wouldn't be clean-sheet.
 
workhorse
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Mon Aug 26, 2019 6:30 pm

My :twocents: .

The next Airbus aircraft will have the fuselage cross section of the A320 in order to be assembled on the existing 32S lines.

It will have a longer fuselage than the A321 (somewhere between the 757-300 and the DC8-60).

It will have a new composite wing that will have a significantly bigger span than the 32S family but will fold at the 36m mark to fit into code C gates.

It will have a higher landing gear to fit larger engines and to provide a decent rotation angle.

The adoption of higher main landing gear will be facilitated by the new wing (keep more or less the same gear bay in the fuselage but put the leg further from it on the wing).

To fit a higher front landing gear, the nose section will be redesigned as well.

The aircraft will have a range of ~4500nm with full pax and luggage.
Last edited by workhorse on Mon Aug 26, 2019 6:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
tealnz
Posts: 568
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Mon Aug 26, 2019 6:40 pm

CFRPwingALbody wrote:
I think a replacement for the A300-600R/F and early A330-200 / -300 is the most likely development for Airbus.
The A321XLR has roughly the same passenger capacity as the A310 had. With a A322 stretched A321XLR (possibly with MTOW increase and higher trust PIP engines) the A310 definetly has been replaced. But the A32xNEO has A huge backlog and huge demand. The A330/A340FAL is underutilized because the A330NEO doesn't have sufficient demand. I think with a ~€5billion budget a CFRP D-size wing MTOW 180-200mT and a new nose section for the A33x can be developed. The new nose should cause the cabin to be horizontal on the ground. With this and introduction of more electric system Airbus should be able to offer:
A331, A331F, A332, A333?, A338, A338F and A339 (And MRTT versions replacing the A310MMRT and A330MMRT). This should provide enough demand to fill an upgraded A330FAL (rate 8-10 /month).

The concept of an A300 with new wing/gear has always sounded attractive – the 2-4-2 fuselage offers a better pax experience and it gives Asian/European carriers the hold capacity they are looking for. And can offer more or less systems and training commonality with A330. The question I’ve never seen a good answer on is how much of a weight disadvantage the 8ab aluminum fuselage carries by comparison with a tight 7ab (or a 787-style tight 9ab) CFRP fuselage. Is it a marginal difference? Or is it big enough to create a real disadvantage in the market?
 
CFRPwingALbody
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Mon Aug 26, 2019 7:36 pm

For a cfrp folding wing for the A32X is that a clean sheet or a product development?
Afaik Airbus has plans for CFRP wings and center wingbox, but they are not folding. And the NEO is fine untill boeing launches their NSA.
There is one problem for folding wingtips on a Airbus. There hasn't been a European (military) aircraft with folding wings. Thus this technology is very immature for Airbus.
Boeing was permited to develop folding wings by the US DOD. Cleansky only funded a small uav to test folding wings.

The development of an A300 /A330-200 replacement isn't a cleansheet as well in my oppinion. If it would be the 777X is also a cleansheet.

I totally don't get why it would be less riskey to develop a A322 than a A300 replacement. Airbus has build A300's actually more than 500 of them and about 700 A330-200s. The A330/A340 production lines have run at rate 9/month or 108/year (And for a bout a decade at rate 7/month, 84/year.) The A330NEO with >7000nm range isn't generating demand for >50 annually while the A350 and B787 are also offered. Thus there is surplus production capability in the A330/A340 production lines.
Airbus has not build any narrowbody longer than the A321. While A32x demand far outpasses production capability.
I actually thing the A321XLR was a mistake for Airbus. Indeed they most likely perhibited Boeing from closing the 797MOM busness case. But it also put more pressure on a already overdemanded A32x production proces. I think an A322 development should be viewed togetber with the A321XLR development and that will also cost >€2×10e9.

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